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By now, sports are synonymous with betting. Teams have partnerships with gambling outlets, and the money flowing from the outlets is beyond substantial. Certain feats are tied to individuals and teams each season, with the Twins having more than a few of intrigue this year. Looking at who should surpass expectations has always been fun. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports From a baseline perspective, the win total is a point of contention each year. While not predictive of standings in the vein that Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA attempts, over/under win totals attempt to place a value on a team's overall ability. This season Bovada has the Minnesota Twins checking in at 83.5 wins while giving them equal odds (+150) to finish either first or second in the AL Central. Ending with the win total, here are some thoughts on Twins over/under lines being offered for the 2023 season: Byron Buxton HR Total - 27.5 Despite his speed, Byron Buxton’s best swing has always looked like it would produce more of a power hitter than someone that needed to steal bases. We have seen that play out in recent seasons, and despite playing just 92 games last year, he blasted 28 home runs. On a per-game basis, Buxton’s power is in line with Mike Trout and some of the best sluggers across all of baseball. Minnesota would probably like to see Buck reign it in a bit more at the plate, leaning into a higher level of discipline. He will still run into his fair share of long balls, which comes down to the number of games he can remain healthy for. Hoping that this is the season for the fluky injuries to stop; Buxton playing anything north of 100 games should allow him to cruise by his home run total. It’s a risk betting on his health, but give me the over here. Carlos Correa Batting Average - .280 Batting average is not the indication of results that it was once viewed as, but there is still plenty of value to be placed on it. Last season the Twins star shortstop hit .291 across 136 games. That included a significant slump during the middle of the season. He is a .279 career hitter and has hit over .280 just twice in his eight-year career. I don’t think I’d touch this line, but I could certainly see an argument for the over. With the lack of a shift, Correa could see a few more hits fall, and he gets the benefit of a normal Spring Training where he can settle into his new home. Overall, I think Correa’s slash line trends more towards on-base and slugging, so while his OPS should rise, the batting average may fall. Give me the under on this one. Pablo Lopez/Joe Ryan Wins - 10.5 Pitcher wins have very little value in and of themselves, but they will forever remain a tracked statistic. Last year, Rocco Baldelli was hamstrung with regard to how deep his starters could go in a game. That shouldn’t be the case, given the depth he has this year, and that should benefit the pitching staff as a whole. Joe Ryan led the club with 13 wins last year and shows up in this space for 2023. Lopez was reason enough to trade Luis Arraez, and he is coming off a 10-win season of his own. In the Minnesota rotation, both players should be expected to have plenty of offensive backing, and a better bullpen should protect their leads. Eleven wins is a substantial number, but a good Minnesota team should have a couple of double-digit winners. I’m not sure these are the exact two, but I think at least one should get there. I’ll take the over on Lopez and let it be. Minnesota Twins Wins - 83.5 Looking at the division, I think it’s fair to suggest that Minnesota is right there at the top. Cleveland didn’t do much to get better this offseason, and while they are the reigning champs, it may have been more to do with taking advantage of a situation. Chicago still strikes me as the roster to look out for, and while Pedro Grifol is better in charge than Tony La Russa, that may not be enough to vault them up. Even if the Twins can’t grab the AL Central title again, and I wouldn’t bet against that, they should surpass 84 wins. This looks like a group that can fly past 90 and even a disastrous finish, as the walking wounded saw them win 78 last season. The pitching depth is there, and while the lineup looks different, this team is constructed to compete. I’m taking the over. What are your favorite bets or over/under tallies for the 2023 Twins? View full article

I visited the future, and you won't believe what I saw! Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Jeff Hanisch, Jordan Johnson – USA Today Sports After reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out. What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season. Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team? Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs. Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial. Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025. A Star is Born While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox. Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees. One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins! What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins! View full article

This week we will see the return of the World Baseball Classic. Although certain stars have opted out of the tournament due to injury or in an effort to remain with their Major League club’s, the Minnesota Twins still have more than a few participants. While watching the games, there are a few things to key in on. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports After originally planning to play for Puerto Rico, newly re-signed superstar Carlos Correa will be out of the tournament. He will miss some time this week however as his wife Daniella is scheduled to give birth to their second son. It’s the second time Correa will have missed an opportunity to play third base alongside countryman Francisco Lindor. In his place, Jose Miranda could have been the option at the hot corner, but he too will stay with the Twins as he rehabs a sore throwing shoulder. Miranda and Correa aren't alone in stepping away from the tournament. Star reliever Jhoan Duran also opted out despite already touching 102 mph during live at bats. After signing with Minnesota, Donovan Solano decided he would take the time to acclimate with his new team rather than play in the tournament as well. It appears as though Minnesota still has seven players on rosters for the tournament, and that’s where the focus should be as the action gets underway. Jose De Leon and Edouard Julien are probably the two players least likely to be on the Opening Day roster, but they join the likes of Pablo Lopez, Jorge Lopez, Christian Vazquez, Jovani Moran, and Emilio Pagan as participants. With respect to those playing, here’s some things you should be looking for: Health First and foremost, the Twins don’t need to see injury for any of their players competing in the tournament. The expectation will be that players and managers operate with a focus on the regular season. Although there is a certain desire to win the tournament, each player knows their season ahead is most important. Having already seen Nick Gordon and Austin Martin fall injured during Spring Training, Rocco Baldelli certainly doesn’t want to see more issues for any of his potential players. With Vazquez slated to be Minnesota's Opening Day starter behind the dish, him remaining healthy throughout the tournament is paramount. Minnesota has seen Gary Sanchez be ineffective while both Mitch Garver and Jeffers have missed time in recent seasons. Vazquez isn't expected to be an offensive juggernaut, but he's a reliable talent defensively and the depth in the organization below the Major League level is not ideal. Quality of Pitching The pitchers representing Minnesota in the World Baseball Classic are a very intriguing bunch. Pablo Lopez is the headliner having just come over from the Miami Marlins, so seeing how he looks early against some real competition should be more than exciting. Depending on how De Leon is utilized, it’s Lopez that will be the only starter. From a reliever standpoint, there couldn’t be more to monitor. Pagan did not show well in his spring debut, and tightening things up is a must if he’s going to instill confidence when he takes the mound. Jorge Lopez struggled after joining Minnesota last season, and returning to an All-Star level would be more than nice to see. Moran is certainly battling for a spot in the bullpen, and while he could have an inside track as a lefty, starting strong on a big stage could certainly do wonders. Next Step for Julien Thus far we have seen no reason to suggest that Julien’s bat isn’t legit. He raked everywhere last season in the minors, and then continued to do so during the Arizona Fall League. He has started nicely for the Twins this spring, and carrying that over to elite levels of competition for Team Canada is a must. Given his lack of defensive flexibility, the quality of his bat will be what plays, and if he can showcase it during whatever action he sees now, it could help to influence the timeline he sees in 2023. Team USA is led by Mike Trout and a host of other superstars. The Dominican squad is absolutely stacked. The tournament itself should be a fun one, and there will be plenty of high intensity action to watch alongside the Spring Training games taking place down in Fort Myers. View full article

Highlights from the Minnesota Twins spring training split squad action Sunday. Jose Miranda hit a pair of home runs in one game while Joey Gallo, Max Kepler and prospect Kala'i Rosario homered in the other. Also included are some highlights of Pablo López, Tyler Mahle, Carlos Correa, Jose Salas and much more. View full video

For much of the past two seasons the Minnesota Twins have been tied to something they weren’t. In 2019, the club introduced the Bomba Squad and went on a terrorizing run of punishing opposing pitchers. Power production is what became synonymous with the roster, but expect something much different in 2023. This team will pitch. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports It’s not exactly a bad thing that the Twins will be looking to usher in a new look given they are coming off back-to-back seasons missing the postseason. Last year, the club was decimated by injuries and the year prior, performance left plenty to be desired. Neither of those teams truly had an identity, and it’s something Rocco Baldelli would probably prefer they get back to. If you’re hoping that Joey Gallo’s signing means Minnesota will blast bombas once again, you’re likely to be disappointed. Sure, the Twins are hoping he can find his swing, but there is positional flexibility and defense to fall back on for the slugger. Carlos Correa returns at shortstop, and while he can manage the lumber, his game is an all around one as well. Nelson Cruz is going to moonlight as a baseball player for the San Diego Padres, and Miguel Sano is still unemployed. The Bomba Squad was a one-time thing, and looking at this roster, the Twins want their strength to be pitching. Luis Arraez was sent to the Miami Marlins for Pablo Lopez, not because the pitcher is an ace, but because he lengthens the starting rotation. Sonny Gray has looked the part of a top arm when healthy, and Tyler Mahle could be more than ready to break out if he’s healthy. Kenta Maeda has previously competed for a Cy Young award, and last year’s Opening Day starter in Joe Ryan may be slated to bring up the rear of the rotation. For the first time in quite a while, the Twins rotation is where much of the investment has been made. Yes, there isn’t a massive free agent contract in the group, but prospect capital such as Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were all utilized to acquire it. Moving on from Arraez wasn’t an easy choice, but the lineup has enough potential to withstand that sort of blow. You can bet that Baldelli is not hoping to win every game 2-1, but this shouldn’t be a Twins team that needs five runs in order to hold things down. Last season, the difference between scoring three or more runs was drastic, and the hope is that tweaks to the defense can help as well. The outfield may be able to lay claim as baseball’s best defensively, and that will only further help whoever is on the mound. Bringing back Correa at shortstop was a must, and while Jorge Polanco is not great in the field, Jose Miranda should be better at the hot corner with Alex Kirilloff possessing Gold Glove ability at first base. Fielding will continue to be an area the Twins look to improve in an effort to help the entire pitching staff. Down the stretch last season, the Twins bullpen made significant strides. Jhoan Duran got all of the praise, but Griffin Jax has emerged as a force, and Jorge Lopez returning to his All-Star form would be a massive high-leverage boost. Both in the starting rotation and the bullpen, Pete Maki is going to feel confident running arms to the mound. Derek Falvey became synonymous with pitching when working within the Cleveland Guardians organization. This may be the first time since he has been with Minnesota where he can feel confident in what the group on the mound has been built as. Not every team is going to have an ace, and although the Twins still don’t, they have as good of a group as anyone could hope for. There are different styles that will trot to the mound, but it would not be at all surprising to see that Twins have the best staff, top to bottom, in the division. Start thinking of nicknames if you must, but this group is going to rely on pitching and defense. View full article

FORT MYERS - It's noticeable. It's exciting. It's worrisome. What is going on with the velocity Twins pitchers are seeing? It's not uncommon to hear that a pitcher's velocity is up early in spring training - right up until we actually see in-game radar readings. But we are seeing those now, and the velocity is sticking around. What's going on, and it a positive sign for the future? John Bonnes reports from Twins spring training. export_1677674240147_landscape.mp4 View full article

With a rotation suddenly loaded with high-end veterans, who get the Opening Day honors? Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports Spring training has begun, and the season is right around the corner. The start of the season begs the age-old question, who is the Opening Day starting pitcher? The Twins have never spent significant money or pushed all their chips in to acquire a true "ace," which has left the spot of Opening Day starter as a revolving door of pitchers. The Twins have used three different pitchers in the last three years and eight different in the past ten years. This year, however, the Twins are in a different situation. While they still don't have a real #1 that so many desire, they have five starters that all could reasonably start on Opening Day. Who's the most likely to get the nod? The most significant deciding factor is, more than likely, health. This past season, Sonny Gray was presumed to be the Opening-Day starter after his March 13th acquisition, but he was behind pace in spring training, and the honor was given to rookie Joe Ryan. It's possible that a similar situation may take Tyler Mahle out of the running. Mahle was acquired at last year's deadline but threw just 16.1 innings with the Twins before his season ended due to shoulder injuries. As of now, Mahle's spring training is going normally, but it is something to monitor as we head toward Opening Day. His upside is arguably the highest in the rotation, but he's only had one above-average season in his career. His lack of consistent performance and last year's injury makes him the least likely of the four to start on Opening Day. While he isn't a definitive #1, Pablo Lopez substantially raises the rotation's floor. His talent is similar to Sonny Gray's, and he has shown that he can be a workhorse-type pitcher, throwing 180 innings this past season. Lopez is pitching in the WBC for Venezuela, so his performance and health may dictate his chances for Opening Day. He is also brand new to the Twins, and teams tend to pick veteran starters with more experience on the team, so it may limit his chance to start Opening Day. Kenta Maeda is clearly another candidate. He was the Opening Day starter two years ago in 2021, coming off a (shortened) season in which he finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting. But last year was a lost year for him as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify him, but there are more worthy candidates. That leaves the two front-runners: Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. In 2022, Ryan became the first Twins rookie to start on Opening Day since 1969. Ryan was solid with a 2.2 WAR and a 109 ERA+. He also showed his durability by leading the team in innings pitched with 147. He has no history of substantial injuries and will be ready to go on Opening Day. His lack of a track record of successful pitching is the only thing holding him back. Sonny Gray proved his spot as the #1 last year with 2.4 WAR and a 125 ERA+. While he did land on the IL three times, he finished the season with no injuries. Gray is the veteran of the four at 33 years old and has already pitched an entire season for the Twins. Gray has been in the league for a decade and has shown his ability to perform consistently year after year. He also has a reputation in the clubhouse as a team leader. After looking at team history, previous injuries, and other factors, all signs point to Sonny Gray starting Opening Day. Gray has already pitched in live BP down in Fort Meyers and has no limitations in spring training. His previous time with the Twins and his veteran talent make him the strongest candidate to start on Opening Day. View full article

What else does the machine have to say about the 2023 Twins, specifically how the pitchers will perform? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus—one of baseball's leading analysis site—released their PECOTA projections for every player in MLB. PECOTA predicts nearly everything; minor stats like holds, quality starts, and losses emanate from its crystal ball along with more crucial numbers like FIP and groundball rate. For this article, we will focus on ERA, FIP and WARP. You all know what ERA is. FIP is similar to ERA—you read it exactly the same—but it only considers walks, strikeouts, and homers. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR. Note: These are the 50% projections, meaning each player has a coin flip’s chance of beating or falling behind their projection. I find these numbers more fascinating than the hitter ones. First, nearly every pitcher in MLB is set to beat their FIP according to PECOTA, something I don’t understand and have not found an answer for. I’d love to soliloquy about Minnesota’s excellent defense, but doing so may be incorrect. Anyways, perhaps the most surprising result is the first: Pablo López is the Twins’ best starter by a few ticks. The machine pegs him as netting the 33rd-most pitching WARP in baseball, hanging out with other quality arms like Dustin May and Chris Bassitt. Joe Ryan isn’t far behind him. PECOTA hammer home another point; the starting rotation is a quality assortment of high-floor starters—all five arms are projected to be in the top 80 of MLB by WARP—that lacks a true ace. There isn’t a black hole, however. Now we move into the bullpen. Jovani Moran earns a healthy projection, one that sees him as one of the best relief arms in the game and essentially tied with Caleb Thielbar as the second-best option for Rocco Baldelli. Emilio Pagán, everyone’s favorite punching bag, receives a hearty premonition from the machine, perhaps a sign that his underlying measurables are indeed favorable. The only notable surprise to me is Jorge López, although it makes sense that PECOTA is leery of his performance given his struggles with the Twins. To end our journey with PECOTA, a few other notable projections: Louie Varland receives a 4.01 FIP—usable, but not outstanding. The machine sees some value in both Patrick Murphy and José De León—two pitchers Minnesota signed to minor league deals—as they net 0.2 WARP projections. Note: Baseball Prospectus tinkers with PECOTA until the start of the season; these numbers were taken on February 15th and may not match future projections. Also, if you question PECOTA's value, Rob Mains wrote about how successful the machine is and where it fails. View full article

The Minnesota Twins will kick off actual baseball action down in Fort Myers this week, and with pitchers and catchers reporting today, the offseason has officially come to an end. That doesn’t mean their won’t be additional changes to the roster, but Major League Baseball’s calendar has flipped to 2023. Image courtesy of Amanda Inscore/The News-Press USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK For the Minnesota Twins, 2023 represents an opportunity to right the ship. Rocco Baldelli got off to a great start in his managerial career, but since the 2019 Bomba Squad, things haven’t been the same. Despite a postseason berth in 2020, the Twins have missed playoff baseball each of the past two years. This roster looks the part of being the best we’ve seen in some time, and the front office now wants to see it matter on the field. While we are still a bit away from seeing the Twins in game action, there is plenty to catch up on from the offseason. Who’s Out From the Opening Day roster last year, just 14 players currently remain in the system. Notably, starting catcher Gary Sanchez is gone, and so too are starting infielders Luis Arraez and Gio Urshela. Minnesota flipped the arbitration-eligible Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels for prospect Alejandro Hidalgo, while Arraez’s departure brought in Jorge Lopez (along with Jose Salas and Byron Chourio). The rotation will no longer see Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer among it, and longstanding organizational piece Miguel Sano remains unemployed at the moment. For Minnesota, this roster is one of renewed belief. Although Arraez was beloved by fans, his deal brought in much-needed pitching help. It will be weird to see Sano in a different uniform if and when he ever surfaces again, but not being in the organization has removed a vein for storylines. The rotation a season ago was largely pieced together, and with both departures for the Twins still being unemployed, it’s not shocking that the new group shows more promise. Who’s In Most importantly, Carlos Correa is back. Although it took some weird twists and turns to happen, Correa is with the organization at least for another six years, meaning that his deal lines up perfectly with Byron Buxton’s. A true superstar shortstop, Twins fans could watch C4 trend towards an eventual Hall of Fame enshrinement due to his exploits in the new Minnesota threads. The shortstop is also joined by a new backstop in Christian Vazquez. He is expected to start the bulk of Minnesota’s games, and will push Ryan Jeffers into more of a reserve role than he saw a season ago. The outfield grabbed an addition in Joey Gallo, and while he’ll need to bounce back from a down season with the Dodgers and Yankees, he adds defensive talent that could make Minnesota’s outfield the best in baseball. The rotation brings back Kenta Maeda at 100% after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery, and the aforementioned Lopez should be expected to contribute in a big way as well. The bullpen has largely gone unaddressed, but that could be an area Minnesota looks to tweak before Opening Day. Kyle Farmer was added as a fallback option, and now immediately slots in as a high-level utility player. What Are We Watching For This season is one for the youth. Jose Miranda is going to start at the hot corner and be expected to contribute immediately. Plenty of promise has followed Alex Kirilloff, and it’s up to his wrist as to whether he can be the regular at first base. Trevor Larnach has looked the part of a true impact bat, but injuries have kept him off the field. He was solid in left field last season, but will need to show he can remain healthy. That was the major downfall last year, health, and Nick Paparesta’s addition to the organization can hopefully make a quiet impact. Seeing the likes of Buxton, Tyler Mahle, Jeffers, Jorge Polanco, and any number of other players remain available should only enhance Minnesota’s chances. Which Twins player will breakout in 2023? We have seen Louie Varland win the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year each of the past two seasons (2021, 2022). Royce Lewis made his big league debut in 2022 and should be back this summer. Simeon Woods Richardson showed up for one start at the end of the year as well. Does Austin Martin or Brooks Lee get the call? Maybe David Festa forces his way into big league action. Although the Twins may not have the top end talent of some other organizations, their prospect depth is plenty exciting. Many of Minnesota’s regulars will remain in camp with the organization. There are a few others that will play for their native countries in the World Baseball Classic this spring. Checking out a few of them in action during more meaningful games could give fans a glimpse of how ready they are for the regular season to start. With Cleveland having made just minor upgrades in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, their top spot is ripe for the picking. Andrew Benintendi is a nice get for Chicago, but expecting Mike Clevinger to contribute there any time soon isn’t a good bet. The division is again right there for the taking, and it starts this week. View full article

Tyler Mahle has become a bit of an afterthought when considering the team’s success in 2023. Given his season-ending injury, this may be fair. It’s easy to forget, however, that if Tyler Mahle is healthy, he could make a huge impact. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The Twins would probably like a redo on the Tyler Mahle trade at this point given how 2022 ended up. They paid a premium for pitching help at the deadline, shipping out three solid prospects in Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar to try to hold onto first place in the AL Central. The Twins would get just 16 1/3 innings from Mahle who immediately wound up on the IL with shoulder issues. It’s impossible to argue that his stock has dropped precipitously, likely to the point where had Mahle remained in Cincinnati, an offseason trade likely wouldn’t even be on the table for teams across the league. Despite Mahle’s remaining questions on the shoulder, he still has an entire season to make good on the Twins investment. Though not what they were focused on when they acquired the right-hander last summer, 2023 could easily turn a 180 on the perception of that trade. People seem to forget that Tyler Mahle was blossoming into a very good pitcher prior to injury. Some might argue that he had already emerged as a top of the rotation option. After a few years of struggles, Mahle quietly broke out in the shortened 2020 season. In just under 50 innings pitched, he posted a near 30% K rate and a 3.59 ERA which was supported by his peripherals. His 1.1 Fangraphs WAR projected out to a 3+ win pitcher. The Twins leader by this measure in 2023 was Sonny Gray with 2.4 WAR. Mahle carried his success over to 2021, setting a career high in innings with 180 and posting a 3.75 ERA and nearing the 4 WAR mark. In 2022 Mahle got off to a rough start with an ERA over 6.00 in the first month, but was otherwise on track to finish as the same level of pitcher down the stretch. In regard to his skill set when on the mound, the Twins had good reason to pay up for him, as he’s rock solid as is and may have some untouched ceiling from his days in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of baseball's premier offensive stadiums, he’s been a premium starting pitcher. The big blemish in his profile has always been the longball, which should surprise no one as Cincinnati’s park has ranked top 3 in homers in each of the last three seasons. By Statcast measures, the 18 expected homers allowed by Mahle in Cincinnati’s ballpark in 2023 drops all the way down to 11 at Target Field. Not only can we expect a healthy Tyler Mahle to post a mid to high 3s ERA when he’s on the mound, it’s incredibly easy to dream of his game finding another level just by a few more fly balls staying in the park. The Twins current construction of their roster also points to further improvement in Tyler Mahle’s game. As is the case with most pitchers who allow a healthy amount of homers, a majority of balls in play off of him are hit in the air. In 2022 Mahle had a 46.8% fly ball rate. The Twins would love to see a repeat given the depth of defensive outfield options on the roster including Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Michael A. Taylor etc. Not only should Target Field keep a few more homers in the ballpark, but it’s easy to see a few more singles and extra base hits finding the glove with how the Twins have put together their outfield. It’s been interesting to see references to a solid Twins rotation with limited mention of Tyler Mahle. His end to 2022 was disappointing and left a lot of question marks, but nothing was acutely wrong with his then ailing shoulder. On one hand this could be bad news as there’s nothing specific to fix, but on the other he’s had an offseason to correct the issue and there would likely be more reason to worry had the fix been something like shoulder surgery. Mahle is certainly a risk to have a recurring injury, but why does his shoulder get so much more attention than Sonny Gray’s rash of ailments that kept him from reaching even 120 innings? Recently acquired Pablo López has an even more colorful history of shoulder injuries, and while he reached 180 innings in 2022, he noticeably was not the same pitcher in the second half as he wore down. At the very least, Mahle is on the same level skill wise as these pitchers, and it can be argued that he’s shown more consistency and has a better argument to show further improvement. The first step, as is the case with so many players on the Twins roster, is health for Tyler Mahle. If he provides us with a favorable answer, he’s going to be one of the biggest contributors to a pitching staff that desperately needs a rebound season. Do you agree? View full article

We continue our discussion on the. Minnesota Twins starting pitchers by reviewing a poll I ran and taking a look at a couple articles from The Athletic. You collectively elected Joe Ryan as the Twins top starting pitcher for this season, Aaron Gleeman puts Sonny Gray atop his depth chart, I’m inclined to go Pablo López then Tyler Mahle while some of my Twitter followers wanted Kenta Maeda as an option. There’s no wrong answer! Also discussed is how Keith Law still ranks Jordan Balazovic as the team’s top pitching prospect. View full video

On Thursday evening, all twenty World Baseball Classic rosters were unveiled live on MLB Network. The amount of talent is scary good, with this having the potential to be the best WBC yet. The rosters are filled with current and former Twins that will represent their countries this year. Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo (graphics) Second to Team USA, Minnesotans might look at Puerto Rico fondly during this edition of the WBC, as seven of the ten current Twins, plus four former ones will be playing the event for the Borícua team. Relievers Emilio Pagán, Jorge López, José de León, Dereck Rodríguez and Jovani Morán, catcher Christian Vázquez, and infielder José Miranda are the current Twins on Team Puerto Rico. Former Twins José Berríos and Hector Santiago and outfielder Eddie Rosario are also on the squad. In addition, the team's pitching coach, Ricky Bones, who spent about five months in early 1998 in the Twins organization. Back-to-back runners-up, the Puerto Ricans could even have another Twin in Carlos Correa, but the superstar shortstop opted not to take part in this year’s edition as his wife is expected to give birth to the couple’s second child during the competition. But despite also having names like Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, and Martín Maldonado, Puerto Rico won’t have an easy life in Pool D, as another team full of former Twins will fight them for one of the two spots in the quarterfinals. Venezuela is another strong team in the group, and despite having only one current Twin, he’s perhaps the team’s ace, Pablo López. Four former Twins will join him. Fan favorites Luis Arráez and Eduardo Escobar in the infield and Jhoulys Chacín (pitched in spring training 2020 before the pandemic and was cut in July, just before the season started) and Martín Pérez in the pitching staff. Also, the Venezuelan coaching staff includes Twins assistant pitching coach Luis Ramírez and long-time Twins minor-league manager, currently with the Wichita Wind Surge, Ramón Borrego. Former Twins minor-league pitching coach Ivan Arteaga is the team's pitching coach. With names like José Altuve, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Salvador Pérez, among others, Venezuela the main competition to Puerto Rico for the second spot in the group. I said “second” because one other team is considered by many to be the pool’s favorite. The Dominican Republic doesn’t have a single current Twin. However, former Minnesota sluggers Gary Sánchez and Nelson Cruz, who's also the team manager. Still, they’ll be one of the most exciting teams in the tournament, with players like Sandy Alcántara, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and more. Only a tragedy would keep the Dominicans out of the quarterfinals. There are several other current Minnesota Twins (or Twins minor leaguers) in the competition. Newcomer Carlos Luna will be playing for Panama, and prized-prospect Édouard Julien, for Team Canada. Joining the latter is former Twins pitcher Andrew Albers. Seven other former Twins will also be fighting for the world title: pitchers Lance Lynn and Ryan Pressly will play for Team USA. In addition, reliever Brooks Raley spent much of the 2014 season on the Twins 40-man roster, and Jason Adam was the player acquired from the Royals for Josh Willingham in 2014. Two infielders who had short stints with Minnesota, Andrelton Simmons and Jonathan Schoop will represent The Kingdom of the Netherlands. So will former pitcher Shairon Martis. Former Twins first base/outfield prospect Zander Wiel will also be on the team. Their pitching coach will again be Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven. Last year’s fan favorite Gio Urshela will represent Colombia, alongside reliever Jhon Romero, who pitched in four games in a Twins uniform early last season. The Twins long had a pipeline in Australia. There are five former Twins minor leaguers on Team Australia including Aaron Whitefield who spent some time with the Twins in 2020. The others include infielder Logan Wade and pitchers Todd Van Steensel, Tim Atherton and Josh Guyer. Great Britain is in the tournament this year. On their roster include former Twins pitchers Ian Gibaut and Vance Worley. Tyler Viza pitched for Wichita and St. Paul early in the 2022 season before being released. In addition, Antoan Richardson stole 39 bases between New Britain and Rochester in 2013. He is the team's bench coach. Slugger ByungHo Park, who played for the Twins in 62 games during the 2016 season, will represent his home country of South Korea. Several former Twins minor leaguers will also be participating in Pool A or Pool B in the first round. For Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) pitchers Chi-Wei Hu and Kai-Wei Teng, as well as Saints infielder Tzu-Wei Lin will participate. The team representing China will include former minor leaguer Ray Chang. Team Israel will include former Twins third baseman Danny Valencia, along with pitcher Zack Weiss who spent a little time in Double-A and Triple-A in the Twins system in 2019. In maybe a fun story, 35-year-old Jakub Hajtmar is competing with the team from the Czech Republic. He played in 33 games for the GCL Twins in 2008. The WBC will take place from March 8 until March 21, with the four pools having a different host city: Taichung, Taiwan, for Pool A; Tokyo, Japan, for Pool B; Phoenix, USA, for Pool C; and Miami, USA, for Pool D. Below is a picture of the competition structure, with the four pools and the bracket all the way to the final. Who do you think is going to win it all? 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Teams love to get off to a good start in the season's early weeks. However, the Twins' April schedule sets up to put the team in a hole. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports During the 2022 season, the Twins got off to a fast start with a 12-9 record in April. This stretch included a seven-game win streak and multiple walk-off wins. The early 2023 schedule isn't as favorable for the hometown nine, and it might be challenging for the club to survive the month with a .500 record. The Good: March 30-April 2 at Kansas City Royals, April 3-5 at Miami Marlins, April 21-23 vs. Washington Nationals, April 27-30 vs. Kansas City Royals All three of these teams were significantly below .500 during the 2022 season, which can help the Twins to salvage some early season victories. None of these teams made significant additions that will help their projections in 2023. MLB is shifting to a more balanced schedule in 2023, so the Marlins and Nationals series are a result of this change. Minnesota may line up to face Sandy Alcantara, the reigning NL Cy Young, in his second start. Luis Arraez and Pablo Lopez will also get a chance to face their old teams for the first time since this offseason's trade. Another part of the more balanced schedule is the number of divisional games decreasing from 76 to 52. This could hurt the Twins because they are in one of baseball's weakest divisions. Last season, the Twins went 12-7 against the Royals, so Minnesota will have played half of their games against KC by April's end. The Twins need to win all of these series to put themselves in a position to end the month with a winning record. Record Prediction: 10-3 The Bad: April 10-12 vs. Chicago White Sox, April 18-20 at Boston Red Sox Minnesota squeaked out a winning record against Chicago and Boston last season, but it certainly wasn't easy. The Twins went 4-3 against the Red Sox but only outscored them by four runs. At the end of August, Minnesota won a three-game series against Boston but then lost nine of their next 11 games and fell out of contention. Boston has had an interesting offseason as the team lost out on re-signing Xander Bogaerts, and Trevor Story had surgery on his right elbow. The AL East is one of baseball's toughest divisions, so the Red Sox can't afford to start slowly. Chicago's off-season has been about as interesting as Boston's. The White Sox lost Jose Abreu to the Astros, but the team signed Andrew Benintendi to fill one need. Mike Clevinger was their biggest starting pitcher signing, and he is now the subject of a league investigation into domestic violence and child abuse allegations. The Athletic gave Chicago an F grade, the lowest in MLB, for their poor off-season. Minnesota was outscored by Chicago in 2022 but won the season series 10-9. Will former Twins minor-league catcher Pedro Grifol, a new manager, help the White Sox to get back on track? Record Prediction: 3-3 The Ugly: April 6-9 vs. Houston Astros, April 13-16 at New York Yankees, April 24-26 vs. New York Yankees If there were two teams the Twins didn't want to see, it would be the Astros and the Yankees. Both teams have dominated the American League recently, and the Twins have struggled against both squads. The Astros destroyed the Twins in 2022 by going 6-0 and outscoring Minnesota by 25 runs. Even with Justin Verlander gone, Houston continues to churn out young pitchers to step into the rotation. Jose Abreu will step in at first base to help one of baseball's best offenses. Minnesota's only chance might be that the Astros are coming off a long postseason run, and they might be dealing with a World Series hangover. Minnesota's struggles with the Evil Empire are well documented. Last season, the Twins went 2-5 versus the Yankees while being outscored 30-41. New York spent the off-season getting better by re-signing Aaron Judge and adding Carlos Rodon to pair with Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation. Minnesota hasn't won more than two games against the Yankees in any regular season since 2014. After the calendar turns to May, the Twins won't see the Yankees again during the 2023 campaign. The club gets them out of the way early <insert shrug emoji>. Record Prediction: 2-8 If the above predictions hold true, the Twins will end April with a 15-14 record to sit slightly above .500. Many prognostications have the AL central winner ending with 86-88 wins, so this would put the Twins on pace to be close to that total. What are your thoughts about the Twins' early season schedule? What are your predictions for their April record? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article