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* According to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, the Twins "definitely have interest" in bringing back veteran Neal Cotts, who became a free agent at season's end after joining the Twins in August. Cotts, who turns 36 in March, posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 68 appearances this year, including 3.95 and 1.39 in 14 late-season appearances with Minnesota. He signed a one-year, $3 million deal with Milwaukee last offseason and figures to get something similar this time around. Cotts has been decent over the past of couple years but if the Twins are truly trying to craft a power pen, they should aim higher for their top lefty option. * In the same article, Berardino reports that free agent Brian Duensing hasn't heard from the Twins. Once a solid southpaw specialist, Duensing has declined steadily over the past few seasons to the point where he was roundly ineffective in 2015. The Twins are expected to move on. * Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweeted that the Twins have been in contact with Tony Sipp, who ranked as the No. 2 free agent left-handed reliever in the Offseason Handbook following a fantastic season with the Astros. It would probably cost a fair amount to get Sipp signed, but Ryan might be more inclined to meet his asking price given that the 32-year-old is effective against both lefties and righties, providing Paul Molitor more late-inning flexibility. Wolfson mentioned that he didn't get the sense an offer has been made to Sipp. * The best free agent lefty reliever is Antonio Bastardo, who has averaged 11 K/9 in his career and is only 30. In the Handbook we estimated that he would get a three-year, $21 million contract but there has been no public steam surrounding his market up to this point. It looks as though Darren O'Day, a righty who is one of the top relievers in free agency, is poised to sign somewhere soon, and once he does, I'd expect a bunch of other dominos to start falling. * The Rule 5 Draft takes place next Thursday. Ryan and the Twins have used this avenue to add bullpen arms twice in the past three years, though both Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham were righties. Could the club target a left-handed reliever next Thursday? Baseball America's J.J. Cooper listed several names to remember in his Rule 5 preview last month, and among them were a few hard-throwing southpaws: Chicago's Onelki Garcia, Houston's Reymin Guduan and Kansas City's Sam Selman. All have posted big strikeout rates in the minors, but also have significant control issues that would inhibit their chances of finding fast success in the majors. Another to keep in mind: 22-year-old Cardinals prospect Luis Perdomo, who shares a name with the righty reliever who made 15 appearances for the Twins back in 2012.

The unfortunate reality is that Terry Ryan and the Twins brass has decided to stay in the middle this season, and it could prove costly. For whatever it's worth, the Twins were absolutely not supposed to compete in 2015. Another season eyeing 90 losses was more realistic than one nearing 90 wins. Because baseball happens though, Minnesota finds themselves above .500 and in striking distance of a one-game wild card playoff. In order to not sacrifice the future, Minnesota had to navigate their current winning carefully. Having gone through four poor seasons, Ryan and the Twins brain trust have built what can be regarded as one of the best farm systems in all of the big leagues. Knowing that the fruits of their labor are ready to overflow and pay dividends, sacrificing them substantially for what has been a surprise season would seem foolish. Pushing the envelope with the talent on the 2015 roster, the Twins looked to improve without going all in. While the Toronto Blue Jays made deals for players like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, Minnesota shored up a bad bullpen with Kevin Jepsen. It was a low cost acquisition that carried future value as well. In the context of the season and organization, both now and in the future, it made a lot of sense. That's where things stop making sense, and the Twins find themselves in dangerous waters. During the month of August, the Twins made another acquisition. Neal Cotts, a 35-year-old veteran, was acquired from the Brewers as a rental, knowing free-agency loomed following 2015. The acquisition cost was minimal for the Twins (cash considerations or a player to be named later), but so was the return. Cotts compiled a 3.26 ERA with the Brewers across 49.2 IP, but a 4.72 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and 3.1 BB/9 loomed ominously. Regardless of what has or will come to fruition, the move was a sign of the Twins looking to further capitalize on the good fortune of their current wild card positioning. Within striking distance, Molitor needed another bullpen arm capable or bridging the gap to his All-Star closer. Cotts' rental status made him an intriguing option to go for it in 2015, without sacrificing the future. Following the two steps forward, the Twins then took two steps back. With a starting rotation boasting bloated ERA's (Kyle Gibson 6.00 ERA in Aug., Tommy Milone 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana 9.12 ERA in Aug.), and two injured hurlers (both Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco may not contribute the rest of the way), the Twins decided to ignore a glaring weakness. Choosing not to trade for a David Price of their own, or make a significant future-damaging move, Minnesota stood pat. Meanwhile, at Triple-A Rochester, Jose Berrios kept rolling. In front of Terry Ryan, Berrios was lights out. In August, he owned a 2.03 ERA and a 48/3 K/BB ratio across 40.0 IP in which batters hit just .203/.232/.324. Despite the performance to the tune of a 2.67 Triple-A ERA, the Twins looked past their top pitching prospect. In holding him back, the club doesn't need to face service time implications until 2016 at the earliest. In the meantime, they may have cost themselves much more. Berrios' promotion would have started his service time. In the long run, that could have ended up costing the Twins a year of team control, forcing them to pay more down the line. However, they also could have maximized both 2015 and 2016 by being savvy with roster control. By promoting Berrios to the rotation now, the Twins would have immediately had another plus option to help carry them through September. The workload has appeared to be well within the Puerto Rican's wheelhouse, and the output would no doubt have benefitted the Twins. Following a postseason run, or whatever may have taken place in 2015, Minnesota could have then addressed 2016 in the spring. Having started the service clock in September, a year of arbitration could have been saved in early 2016. Rather than having Berrios start in the rotation out of spring training (which, judging by the Twins handling of the situation, seems like a long shot regardless), he could have made his 2016 debut in mid-May. If promoted during September 2015, and then May 2016, the results on his service time would be as if he had not been promoted this season at all. Because of how they handled things, the Twins find themselves in the middle of an uncertain equation. The playoffs are in the picture right here and now. Terry Ryan got Neal Cotts in a move to help get Minnesota there. Instead of making the internal decision with Berrios for the same reasons, he played the opposite side of the fence. Now the Twins must hope that 2016, and the next few subsequent years after, are as good as they are being hoped for. If they aren't or if larger moves need to be made to accomplish a playoff berth (the same goal as 2015), this season could end up being a distant "what if?" The business side of baseball is definitely one that isn't traveled without navigating murky waters. In a game with so much uncertainty however (again, were the Twins really supposed to be here), tempting fate and betting against the present is a difficult game to play. More often than not, being in the middle isn't going to produce the results to get you to the top. For now, the Twins will have to live with their decision and wait. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

And the answer as of right now is … sort of? That’s not meant to be a backhanded jab at Terry Ryan, who has built this into a team that has not only surprised people on the national front, but led the teams around them to make moves as well. Do the Tigers sell off if the upstart Twins don’t exist? Maybe, maybe not. That might be more of a reflection of the Royals — the guaranteed Central champs — as well as the surrounding wild card landscape, and it might just as well be where the Tigers are on their winning curve as well. But I’d have to believe just the mere existence of the Twins — 3.5 games up on the Tigers in the standings even now — played at least some part. And if that wild card situation daunted the Tigers, why didn’t it scare off the Twins? The teams were virtually tied at that fork in the road, and yet Dave Dombrowski — since deposed — decided to sell hard on assets like David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria. Part of it has to do with winning windows and where each team is. The Tigers’ would seem to be drawing to a close, while the Twins are just starting to open theirs, even if this season is a bit like cracking them open during that first early March heatwave that sees temperatures rise into the 30s. And so rather than jumping headlong into those frigid waters, Ryan dipped his toes in by acquiring Rays reliever Kevin Jepsen. But hold the phone; aren’t the Rays right in the thick of things, too? As a matter of fact, entering play Monday they were just one game behind the Twins at an even 62-62. Unfortunately for the Rays, that still means there are five teams ahead of them in the race — including the Yankees and Rangers who are the current leaders. In a sense, the Rays figured they’d get wherever they were going, with or without Jepsen. And that’s sort of how the average reliever is viewed in today’s game. Here’s a dose of context: The Twins were a markedly better bullpen in the first half; that much is known for sure. In the first half, Twins relievers carried a 3.71 ERA. Since the break that has swollen by more than a run to 4.81, and just six teams — including the Tigers — are worse. But let’s frame those numbers in terms of the modern bullpen. Surely not everyone’s bullpen is comprised of flamethrowers like the Royals, or with two lockdown closers at the back end like the Yankees, right? Well, when the Twins were sitting at a 3.71 ERA at the All-Star break, they were still tied with the White Sox for just 18th overall. Throw in FIP for good measure, and the smoke-and-mirrors Twins had the seventh-worst mark across the league, bound for regression and limited by a lack of strikeout stuff. Here’s some more context: For the season, the Twins have a 4.04 bullpen ERA. That’s among the 10 worst marks in baseball, and is backed by a 4.11 FIP that basically says “what you see is what you get.” The Twins are also dead last in strikeouts at 6.7 per nine innings. In fact, just three teams are ahead of the Twins by less than a strikeout per nine innings. The Rays bullpen that decided it didn’t need Jepsen to get where it’s going? They’ve fanned 8.6 batters per nine this year. To put a tidy bow on it all, here’s what the average AL reliever looks like. 8.4 K/9 3.64 ERA 44.8 percent ground ball rate No Twins reliever with any semblance of a sample size is striking out that many batters. Glen Perkins is fanning 8.2 batters per nine as the Twins’ best — when healthy — reliever, and he’s still below the AL average for his contemporaries. Recently-added Jepsen is right at that 8.4 mark — that’s in just 10.2 innings — but it’s one he’s only reached twice in the past five seasons. Casey Fien used to be able to reach that mark but has seen his cutter become very hittable over this season. Even the ground ball rate is a hard one to match, as relievers should usually be able to: A. Strike batters out, or B. Get grounders, in large part due to coming into double play situations in crunch time. But the Twins still fall short of that as a whole with a 43 percent rate. So essentially, the Twins are a group of flyballing non-strikeout guys who walk nobody. In this day and age, that’s not really a sustainable bullpen plan. Going out and getting Jepsen made plenty of sense, even if it was met with trepidation. The most important part of his acquisition was that he’s under control for one more season after this, thereby not leaving the Twins viewing this contention run as a short-term thing. Jepsen brings a lot of things the Twins don’t have within — namely, throwing 95 mph — and didn’t cost too terribly much. It was a sensible addition. So too is the recent acquisition of Neal Cotts, a left-hander from Milwaukee who has gained steam as the season has gone on. At the time of his acquisition, Cotts had a 3.26 ERA that had been as high as 6.10 back in early May. Cotts has been rather good while working in low-leverage spots for the Brewers all season long. From June 1 until the trade, Cotts put together a 28-inning stretch with a 1.93 ERA, 26-11 K/BB ratio and just a .654 OPS against. He does have his limitations — he’s signed just through this season and should really only be used against lefties — but he does have value. Depending on the return when the trade is finalized, this has potential to be a shrewd move by Ryan. Left-handed hitters are batting just .179/.222/.333 against Cotts this year. Righties, however, are hitting .279/.375/.462. But again, if he’s used properly, there’s some value here. The movement of Trevor May to the bullpen was certainly a puzzling one, but it would be lying to say he hasn’t taken to that role with aplomb. Of course, he was far more than adequate in the rotation, and moving him to the bullpen is like some bizarro Peter Pan move since the rotation isn’t exactly fortified. But the numbers for May in the bullpen speak for themselves: 2.00 ERA, 20-3 K/BB ratio in 18 innings and .243/.293/.357 line against. That’s elite late-inning relief in a spot where you need it. His stuff is also sizzling in smaller doses; his fastball averaged 93.0 mph in June according to Brooks Baseball. It’s now up to 96 mph in August. And if Perkins can come back from his neck injury to be anything close to what he was in the first half, suddenly you might have something. Jepsen, May and Perkins at the back end isn’t going to make anyone forget about Wade Davis and Greg Holland or Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, but it’s also a far cry from Boyer, Thompson and Fien. Furthermore, moving Fien into lower-leverage innings could be extremely useful as well; for all his issues, he’s still managed the second-lowest walk rate among 177 big league relievers that have thrown at least 30 innings. So while his 5.2 K/9 isn’t ideal to work the eighth or ninth with, he can still have some value working in earlier innings — especially if he faces mostly righties (.200/.222/.308). Having three lefties certainly doesn’t hurt either, especially considering the fact that Paul Molitor can use Brian Duensing as a long guy and let Ryan O’Rourke (.152/.250/.250 against lefties) and Cotts face just lefties later in games. It’s not a perfect bullpen, but for now it’s something Molitor can piecemeal together until September, when rosters expand and perhaps Ryan Pressly and even Boyer — in a reduced role — can return as well. One thing remains for sure, and that is that they’ll need all hands on deck to stay in this race. 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but now Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are faced with some very interesting and hard decisions. Heading out on an AL East road trip, the Twins had an opportunity to capitalize on the AL wild card positioning. The Twins were in firm control of a playoff spot, but a surging Blue Jays team made sure to knock them out of contention. With key games ahead though, the Twins had an opportunity to climb right back in it. In a roller coaster of events, Molitor's club was swept by the Yankees, only to bounce back big and knock off the Orioles in four straight games. It was the roster move over the weekend though that highlights the Twins current predicament. In dealing either a player to be named later or cash to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins received left-handed pitcher Neal Cotts. After being linked to him during the July 31 trade deadline time frame, Minnesota acquired the reliever during the August waiver period. Cotts is an impending free agent and owns a 3.26 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and 8.9 K/9. In short, he's nothing spectacular, but is no doubt an upgrade for a lackluster Minnesota bullpen. The move in and of itself makes sense. Minnesota has struggled with relief pitching all year, and despite Cotts peripherals leaving plenty to be desired (4.71 FIP and 3.1 BB/9), he helps to solidify the issue. What is odd however, is that Cotts comes to the Twins as a rental player. He is 35 years old, and has just two months remaining on his one-year, $3 million deal. That raises the question, what do the Twins see themselves as? Typically, a rental-type player is more of a high profile, high-ceiling type in which a competing team is looking for somewhat of a final piece. After the Twins added Kevin Jepsen during July's trade period, it seemed as though they were content being in the hunt, but not going for it. Jepsen was acquired with team control going forward, and at a very modest price (High-A reliever Chih-Wei Hu). The two moves in comparison signify very different trains of thought. Even if Cotts ends up netting the Brewers next to nothing, it's the thought process that makes the move puzzling. With August nearly wrapping up, the Twins will be offering more insight into their direction soon. September signifies the active roster expanding from 25 to 40 players. In doing so, the Twins can add a few key pieces from a loaded farm system in order to help them make a final push. It remains to be seen whether or not this will be the course of action however. Aaron Hicks remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Torii Hunter has hit like an aging 40 year old since the break. The obvious boost would be for the Twins to pull German prospect, Max Kepler, from Double-A Chattanooga. Already a 40 man roster guy, the outfielder owning a slash line of .342/.424/.572 across 97 Double-A games would be an immediate boost. Kepler isn't a top prospect by any means, but he's shot up the national boards with his performance this season. On the other side of the game, Minnesota is faced with a tougher decision. After deciding to go with a bullpen game earlier in August, the Twins missed a prime window to promote top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. Still dominating (3.12 ERA and 9.5 K/9 at Triple-A), Berrios would be an asset in the Twins rotation. Calling him up in September however would start his service time, and also have 40-man roster implications (Berrios is not currently on the 40-man). At this point, the Twins are treading water and seemingly waiting for their play to dictate their decision-making. The practice could pay off, or be to their detriment depending on how you view it and how things turn out. On one hand, the Twins lack of real action (Jepsen was a safe move) at the deadline has contributed to the post All Star Game slide, but on the other hand, the team is still in a significantly better place than expected. Both the Jepsen and Cotts moves have separate narratives. One suggests a team looking to enjoy a competitive end to the year and be ready for 2016, while the other is surrounded by thoughts of more. Kepler would follow along the path of the safe but effective move, while a Berrios promotion would carry significantly more weight. Minnesota has a few contests left through the month of August, and if the ball bounces in their favor, it could end up dictating which direction the club goes at the crossroads it currently finds itself at. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Cotts has been around a long time. The 35-year-old left-hander began his big league career in 2003 with the Chicago White Sox. He moved to the bullpen in 2004 and has been there ever since. He pitched for the Chicago Cubs from 2007 through 2009. He had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and missed a lot of time. He signed with the Pirates and Yankees but was unable to pitch. He returned to the big leagues for the Texas Rangers in 2013. He went 8-3 with a 1.11 ERA in 58 games for the Rangers that season. He was then 2-9 with a 4.32 ERA in 2014. He was signed by the Milwaukee Brewers this year. He is 1-0 with a 3.28 ERA in 49.1 innings. He has been very good against left-handers. They have hit just .185/.230/.346 (.576) against him. To make the move official, the Twins will need to make a move on their 25-man roster as well as their 40-man roster. The team would need to send a layer to the Brewers within six months, though generally it happens much sooner than that. To make room for Cotts, the Twins optioned RHP AJ Achter to Rochester.