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  1. Returning home following a seven game road trip that saw the Minnesota Twins go 5-2, reinforcements made their debuts at Target Field during a three-game set with the hapless Kansas City Royals. Fresh off their first sweep since the end of May, Minnesota plays another interleague foe, this time without the silly caveat of a pitcher stepping into the box. The beginning of a seven-game tilt against Native- named teams, the Twins will look to chop down Atlanta.Brief Overview: These two clubs last faced each other in 2016 when sweeps were traded at the opposing teams ballparks. Atlanta leads the NL East by a healthy seven game margin, but their +58 run differential is nearly one-third of Minnesota’s +141 mark. The Braves have played at Target Field just five times, and the Twins will be looking for their first home win against the unusual foe since their debut game in the new digs. What They Do Well: Atlanta doesn’t possess a lineup quite to the level of Minnesota’s “A” group, but they aren’t far behind. Brian Snitker’s club is second in the National League in terms of offensive fWAR. They are top 10 in baseball when it comes to the long ball, and although the 103 wRC+ puts them near an average baseline, a .334 wOBA is just 4 points (.334) shy of the Dodgers for the top spot in the National League. It’s because of their offense that the Braves have created the lead they have in the NL East, and the run differential is a byproduct of them being able to score in bunches. It’s there where the positives begin to run out however, and if that differential seems like it’s because the Pythag suggests a 61-51 record is more appropriate. What They Do Not Do Well: For a team this good you’d expect the problems to be a bit more muted. Unfortunately on both the pitching and defensive fronts, there aren’t a ton of positives. As a whole, Atlanta’s pitching staff ranks 23rd in baseball. The starters are a respectable 17th but the abomination of a bullpen comes in at 29th. The front office attempted to address this by acquiring Chris Martin, Shane Greene, and Mark Melancon. Martin is a K/BB hero and brings a solid run in 2019 with the Rangers to the senior circuit. Melancon isn’t the guy he was a few years ago, but still has the chops to be a difference maker. Greene was supposed to be the headliner, but peripherals suggested likely regression and that’s come at the Braves expense thus far. In the field Atlanta is 25th in baseball. There’s no area that they significantly lack talent on defense, but the group as a whole falls short of mediocrity. This isn’t the Mets defense that Minnesota had a chance at a couple of weeks ago, but Atlanta does come in behind the divisional foe Chicago White Sox. Individuals Of Note: You can’t talk about Atlanta without first bringing up Ronald Acuna Jr. After winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2018 he’s had an amazing encore performance. Through the exact same number of games (111) he’s surpassed his 2018 fWAR (3.7) by 0.1. Batting for both power and average, he’s among the most fearsome hitters in the game today. Freddie Freeman continues to be a model of consistency at first base. While not producing defensively to the same Gold Glove-caliber of 2018, he should still be in the conversation. Continuing to fall out of bed and hit for a .300 average has been his MO for years, and the .950 OPS is the third best mark of his career. It wasn’t groundbreaking to expect a healthy Josh Donaldson to contribute for this club. He’s posted a 2.6 fWAR in 2019 and has a wRC+ (127) one point higher than teammate Acuna. Looking at Ozzie Albies as a thrown in would be doing him a disservice, but the point here is that this lineup packs some punch. On the bump it’s impossible to overlook game one starter Mike Soroka. This was always Julio Teheran’s rotation until the former first-round pick took over. He’s 22 years old, gives up the lowest HR/9 in the league, and totes a sparkling 2.37 ERA. Minnesota loves the long ball, but they could have their hands full in this one. Recent History: As noted above, these two teams don’t link up often. Since 2013 they’ve played a grand total of seven times with Atlanta winning five of them. In 2016 Minnesota took the last two contests between the clubs, winning 4-2 and 10-3 in Georgia. Recent Trajectories: Atlanta comes to Target Field having won six of their last ten, but did lose in extras to Cincinnati on Sunday. Minnesota has held serve against a trio of hapless opponents going 8-2 over their last ten, and is currently riding a three-game winning streak. Pitching Matchups: Monday: Odorizzi vs Soroka Tuesday: Berrios vs Fried Foltynewicz Wednesday: Perez vs Fried (Gausman claimed by Reds) Ending Thoughts: This seven game stretch is as about as important as it gets for the Fightin’ Baldelli's the rest of the way. Atlanta is no slouch and Minnesota can’t get caught looking ahead to Cleveland. They’ll take these teams on without Byron Buxton, and neither Michael Pineda nor Sam Dyson will be at their disposal. Getting through this upcoming week with five wins would be massive to set up the final stretch. I think Atlanta gets one of the trio, but give me Minnesota exposing the soft run differential a bit. Having not made predictions for the first few series previews, this prediction would makes it two in a row. Click here to view the article
  2. Brief Overview: These two clubs last faced each other in 2016 when sweeps were traded at the opposing teams ballparks. Atlanta leads the NL East by a healthy seven game margin, but their +58 run differential is nearly one-third of Minnesota’s +141 mark. The Braves have played at Target Field just five times, and the Twins will be looking for their first home win against the unusual foe since their debut game in the new digs. What They Do Well: Atlanta doesn’t possess a lineup quite to the level of Minnesota’s “A” group, but they aren’t far behind. Brian Snitker’s club is second in the National League in terms of offensive fWAR. They are top 10 in baseball when it comes to the long ball, and although the 103 wRC+ puts them near an average baseline, a .334 wOBA is just 4 points (.334) shy of the Dodgers for the top spot in the National League. It’s because of their offense that the Braves have created the lead they have in the NL East, and the run differential is a byproduct of them being able to score in bunches. It’s there where the positives begin to run out however, and if that differential seems like it’s because the Pythag suggests a 61-51 record is more appropriate. What They Do Not Do Well: For a team this good you’d expect the problems to be a bit more muted. Unfortunately on both the pitching and defensive fronts, there aren’t a ton of positives. As a whole, Atlanta’s pitching staff ranks 23rd in baseball. The starters are a respectable 17th but the abomination of a bullpen comes in at 29th. The front office attempted to address this by acquiring Chris Martin, Shane Greene, and Mark Melancon. Martin is a K/BB hero and brings a solid run in 2019 with the Rangers to the senior circuit. Melancon isn’t the guy he was a few years ago, but still has the chops to be a difference maker. Greene was supposed to be the headliner, but peripherals suggested likely regression and that’s come at the Braves expense thus far. In the field Atlanta is 25th in baseball. There’s no area that they significantly lack talent on defense, but the group as a whole falls short of mediocrity. This isn’t the Mets defense that Minnesota had a chance at a couple of weeks ago, but Atlanta does come in behind the divisional foe Chicago White Sox. Individuals Of Note: You can’t talk about Atlanta without first bringing up Ronald Acuna Jr. After winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2018 he’s had an amazing encore performance. Through the exact same number of games (111) he’s surpassed his 2018 fWAR (3.7) by 0.1. Batting for both power and average, he’s among the most fearsome hitters in the game today. Freddie Freeman continues to be a model of consistency at first base. While not producing defensively to the same Gold Glove-caliber of 2018, he should still be in the conversation. Continuing to fall out of bed and hit for a .300 average has been his MO for years, and the .950 OPS is the third best mark of his career. It wasn’t groundbreaking to expect a healthy Josh Donaldson to contribute for this club. He’s posted a 2.6 fWAR in 2019 and has a wRC+ (127) one point higher than teammate Acuna. Looking at Ozzie Albies as a thrown in would be doing him a disservice, but the point here is that this lineup packs some punch. On the bump it’s impossible to overlook game one starter Mike Soroka. This was always Julio Teheran’s rotation until the former first-round pick took over. He’s 22 years old, gives up the lowest HR/9 in the league, and totes a sparkling 2.37 ERA. Minnesota loves the long ball, but they could have their hands full in this one. Recent History: As noted above, these two teams don’t link up often. Since 2013 they’ve played a grand total of seven times with Atlanta winning five of them. In 2016 Minnesota took the last two contests between the clubs, winning 4-2 and 10-3 in Georgia. Recent Trajectories: Atlanta comes to Target Field having won six of their last ten, but did lose in extras to Cincinnati on Sunday. Minnesota has held serve against a trio of hapless opponents going 8-2 over their last ten, and is currently riding a three-game winning streak. Pitching Matchups: Monday: Odorizzi vs Soroka Tuesday: Berrios vs Fried Foltynewicz Wednesday: Perez vs Fried (Gausman claimed by Reds) Ending Thoughts: This seven game stretch is as about as important as it gets for the Fightin’ Baldelli's the rest of the way. Atlanta is no slouch and Minnesota can’t get caught looking ahead to Cleveland. They’ll take these teams on without Byron Buxton, and neither Michael Pineda nor Sam Dyson will be at their disposal. Getting through this upcoming week with five wins would be massive to set up the final stretch. I think Atlanta gets one of the trio, but give me Minnesota exposing the soft run differential a bit. Having not made predictions for the first few series previews, this prediction would makes it two in a row.
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