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The Five Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets for the Twins
Ted Schwerzler posted an article in Twins
Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. The piece covered hitters and pitchers alike, but in this space, we’ll key in on starters. Rocco Baldelli has gotten more than could’ve been expected from Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, but Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan can’t carry the load themselves. Minnesota has used 10 different starting pitchers this season, and that number should be expected to rise before the final game. Adding a more stabilizing talent to the group would be a substantial benefit. Even if Kenta Maeda comes back this season, he's likely to be in relief. The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets The 5 Best Hitting Trade Targets Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire: Luis Castillo - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.5 fWAR 3.09 ERA 3.24 FIP 9.3 K/9 The Reds missed Castillo’s presence to begin the year as he was dealing with an injury, but then again they just lost a ton of games he wasn’t part of. Castillo is back to being the dominant starter he’s always been and may be the biggest name on the starting pitching market. Castillo’s xFIP and xERA numbers are both roughly the exact same as the actual marks. His strike and walk numbers are basically what they’ve always been, which is to say very good. The Reds starter has a big 96.8 mph average fastball, but he’s heavily reliant on offspeed to set it up. His whiff and chase rates are both down, but barring there are no big red flags in terms of health, this is an elite arm in every sense of the word. It would also be interesting to see Minnesota pair Castillo with former teammate, Gray. Castillo is being paid $7.35 million this year and is in his final year of arbitration in 2023 before hitting free agency in 2024. Pablo Lopez - Miami Marlins - 26 yrs old 1.6 fWAR 2.97 ERA 3.54 FIP 8.9 K/9 Miami has two solid arms that should draw plenty of attention. Sandy Alcantara would top this list, but it seems malpractice to deal a guy you just signed to a five-year deal this offseason. Maybe the Marlins would prefer to extend Lopez this offseason, but he should draw plenty of trade interest. The xERA and xFIP numbers aren’t as glowing as the ERA, but the peripherals are intriguing. A loss of just over one mph off of his average fastball velocity from last season is concerning, but he’s also using his fastball more than ever. Lopez has a career-high whiff rate and reason to believe in future projection. He’s being paid just $2.45 million this season and isn’t a free agent until 2025. Merrill Kelly - Arizona Diamondbacks - 33 yrs old 1.7 fWAR 3.46 ERA 3.40 FIP 7.3 K/9 It may be Zac Gallen that’s the more coveted arm from Arizona, but Kelly currently shows up here. He’s not a high strikeout guy, and the 4.05 xFIP isn’t dazzling even if the 3.58 xERA doesn’t suggest substantial regression. Kelly is giving up more free passes this season, but allowing fewer homers. The 28.8% hard-hit rate is solid, and he misses solid contact with just a 92.5 mph fastball. Most of Kelly’s pitches play of variations from his fastball, but he relies pretty heavily on getting ground balls at a rate close to 50% of the time. Kelly is being paid $5.25 million this season, with another $18 million that kicks in next season and runs through 2024. He then has a $7 million team option in 2025, which would be his age-36 season. Frankie Montas - Oakland Athletics - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 3.26 ERA 3.30 FIP 9.3 K/9 The Athletics are largely playing with fire in regards to Montas. He was dangled in the offseason and now they’ve run him out for 17 starts. He left his most recent outing with what’s being called precautionary for shoulder inflammation, but Montas being hurt would substantially shift the market. He’s been every bit the pitcher he was in 2021, when he finished 6th in the American League Cy Young voting. Montas has had a 96 mph fastball for years now, and his 12.9% whiff rate is above his career average. There’s not a ton of mystery here, Montas will be among the most coveted arms on the market if he’s healthy. Being paid $5.03 million this season before a final year of arbitration eligibility next year, Montas becomes a free agent in 2024. Tyler Mahle - Cincinnati Reds - 27 yrs old 2.0 fWAR 4.48 ERA 3.55 FIP 9.9 K/9 If there’s an arm that could have more to give, it may be Mahle’s. He owns a 3.22 xERA although there is the 4.05 xFIP. Mahle doesn’t allow hard contact, having last been over 30% in 2019. This season his fly ball rate and ground ball rate have flipped, but he’s still generate a strong whiff and chase rate. Mahle is a mid-velocity starter averaging 93.7 mph on his fastball. He’s just now starting to use his slider a bit more, and Minnesota may make tweaks to that arsenal with hopes of squeezing out more value. Mahle may not be at his best, but he’s still very good, paid just $5.2 million this season, and is under team control next year. Which starter would you like to see the Twins trade for and why?- 32 comments
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- pablo lopez
- frankie montas
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We are officially into trade deadline season and the Minnesota Twins are leading the American League Central Division. Knowing that this club should add in order to make a Postseason push, there’s plenty of places the roster could afford an influx of ability. Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. The piece covered hitters and pitchers alike, but in this space, we’ll key in on starters. Rocco Baldelli has gotten more than could’ve been expected from Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, but Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan can’t carry the load themselves. Minnesota has used 10 different starting pitchers this season, and that number should be expected to rise before the final game. Adding a more stabilizing talent to the group would be a substantial benefit. Even if Kenta Maeda comes back this season, he's likely to be in relief. The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets The 5 Best Hitting Trade Targets Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire: Luis Castillo - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.5 fWAR 3.09 ERA 3.24 FIP 9.3 K/9 The Reds missed Castillo’s presence to begin the year as he was dealing with an injury, but then again they just lost a ton of games he wasn’t part of. Castillo is back to being the dominant starter he’s always been and may be the biggest name on the starting pitching market. Castillo’s xFIP and xERA numbers are both roughly the exact same as the actual marks. His strike and walk numbers are basically what they’ve always been, which is to say very good. The Reds starter has a big 96.8 mph average fastball, but he’s heavily reliant on offspeed to set it up. His whiff and chase rates are both down, but barring there are no big red flags in terms of health, this is an elite arm in every sense of the word. It would also be interesting to see Minnesota pair Castillo with former teammate, Gray. Castillo is being paid $7.35 million this year and is in his final year of arbitration in 2023 before hitting free agency in 2024. Pablo Lopez - Miami Marlins - 26 yrs old 1.6 fWAR 2.97 ERA 3.54 FIP 8.9 K/9 Miami has two solid arms that should draw plenty of attention. Sandy Alcantara would top this list, but it seems malpractice to deal a guy you just signed to a five-year deal this offseason. Maybe the Marlins would prefer to extend Lopez this offseason, but he should draw plenty of trade interest. The xERA and xFIP numbers aren’t as glowing as the ERA, but the peripherals are intriguing. A loss of just over one mph off of his average fastball velocity from last season is concerning, but he’s also using his fastball more than ever. Lopez has a career-high whiff rate and reason to believe in future projection. He’s being paid just $2.45 million this season and isn’t a free agent until 2025. Merrill Kelly - Arizona Diamondbacks - 33 yrs old 1.7 fWAR 3.46 ERA 3.40 FIP 7.3 K/9 It may be Zac Gallen that’s the more coveted arm from Arizona, but Kelly currently shows up here. He’s not a high strikeout guy, and the 4.05 xFIP isn’t dazzling even if the 3.58 xERA doesn’t suggest substantial regression. Kelly is giving up more free passes this season, but allowing fewer homers. The 28.8% hard-hit rate is solid, and he misses solid contact with just a 92.5 mph fastball. Most of Kelly’s pitches play of variations from his fastball, but he relies pretty heavily on getting ground balls at a rate close to 50% of the time. Kelly is being paid $5.25 million this season, with another $18 million that kicks in next season and runs through 2024. He then has a $7 million team option in 2025, which would be his age-36 season. Frankie Montas - Oakland Athletics - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 3.26 ERA 3.30 FIP 9.3 K/9 The Athletics are largely playing with fire in regards to Montas. He was dangled in the offseason and now they’ve run him out for 17 starts. He left his most recent outing with what’s being called precautionary for shoulder inflammation, but Montas being hurt would substantially shift the market. He’s been every bit the pitcher he was in 2021, when he finished 6th in the American League Cy Young voting. Montas has had a 96 mph fastball for years now, and his 12.9% whiff rate is above his career average. There’s not a ton of mystery here, Montas will be among the most coveted arms on the market if he’s healthy. Being paid $5.03 million this season before a final year of arbitration eligibility next year, Montas becomes a free agent in 2024. Tyler Mahle - Cincinnati Reds - 27 yrs old 2.0 fWAR 4.48 ERA 3.55 FIP 9.9 K/9 If there’s an arm that could have more to give, it may be Mahle’s. He owns a 3.22 xERA although there is the 4.05 xFIP. Mahle doesn’t allow hard contact, having last been over 30% in 2019. This season his fly ball rate and ground ball rate have flipped, but he’s still generate a strong whiff and chase rate. Mahle is a mid-velocity starter averaging 93.7 mph on his fastball. He’s just now starting to use his slider a bit more, and Minnesota may make tweaks to that arsenal with hopes of squeezing out more value. Mahle may not be at his best, but he’s still very good, paid just $5.2 million this season, and is under team control next year. Which starter would you like to see the Twins trade for and why? View full article
- 32 replies
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- pablo lopez
- frankie montas
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(and 3 more)
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