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After winning two straight AL Central Division titles, the Minnesota Twins flopped and failed a three-peat before things got off the ground. They’ll watch this Postseason from home, but there’s still plenty of exciting talent worth tuning into. Running from the Wild Card round through the World Series, here’s who I’ve got and why: AL Wild Card Yankees over Red Sox In a one game, winner take all, I don’t think you can bet against Gerrit Cole, and the lineup New York currently has clicking. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have carried this team for weeks. The club nearly gave it away on the final day, but I think they beat their biggest rival at home. Boston owned a 10-9 record with a +1 run differential over the Yankees this season. New York will attempt to even that out. AL Division Series Rays over Yankees There’s no denying that New York has the better ace, but Tampa has owned this matchup all year. While New York is just 8-11 against the Rays in 2021, they have a -48 run differential. The Yankees do have some veteran leadership on their side, but I don’t know that Corey Kluber is a guy I want to hang my Postseason hopes on. The lineup is peaking, but it may have come a bit too soon. I think a very big X-factor here for Tampa Bay could be the usage of highly-touted prospect Shane Baz. Astros over White Sox A very small sample, sure, but Chicago was just 2-5 with a -12 run differential against Houston this season. Although the White Sox may have the better rotation, I’m not sure it’s that much of a discrepancy. Houston has largely flown under the radar this season, and the entire lineup is full of star power. Alex Bregman on a big stage always is must-see television. AL Championship Series Astros over Rays These two clubs played each other just six times in 2021, and they nearly split the action with just three runs separating the contests. Both forward-thinking approaches to the game, this should be a fun series. Tampa Bay is looking for a return trip to the World Series, but Houston gets an opportunity to distance themselves from the cheating scandal. NL Wild Card Dodgers over Cardinals Welcome to a year in which a team that won 106 games is playing in a one-game, winner-take-all, affair. The Dodgers have any number of arms to piece this one together, and their lineup should be expected to cause fits for whoever St. Louis puts on the bump. It’s a tough spot, but this is where’d you’d like to believe the best team shines. NL Division Series Dodgers over Giants San Francisco has been the best story of the season in my mind. A team expected to do so little comes out and wins 107 games. These two clubs nearly split their 19 contests and Los Angeles held a +2 run differential. It’s a lot tighter of a matchup than it may seem, but I think this is a spot where the higher tiered talent rises to the occasion. Clayton Kershaw being out hurts Los Angeles, but if there’s an organization with starting arms to make up for it, they are it. Braves over Brewers Initially I wanted to ride with Milwaukee’s pitchers, but Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff can’t do it all. Behind them is a rotation leaving plenty to be desired, and the lineup is more name than it is substance. Atlanta will have to prove that they’re more than an 88-win team coming out of a very mediocre decision, but Freddie Freeman can carry this club. Atlanta seems like a strong flier team, and one worth taking a shot on. NL Championship Series Dodgers over Braves If Los Angeles can get past the test that is their first two rounds, they should be looking at a trip to the World Series. Regardless of who comes out of the bottom half of the National League bracket, they should be facing an uphill battle. This is where Atlanta wears down and the Dodgers go back to seek a second-straight World Series. World Series The National League has won each of the past two World Series. No team has won back-to-back World Series since the New York Yankees ended their last three-peat in 2000. Houston and Los Angeles faced off during the 2017 World Series, which the Astros won over Dave Roberts. Dusty Baker is at the helm in Houston now and is looking for just the second pennant of his career, and first ring. Again, Houston’s ability has been overlooked much of the season and I think we see a replicated result from 2017. Your 2021 Major League Baseball Champions are the Houston Astros. Astros over Dodgers For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

We are just one sleep from Opening Day, and I feel comfortable suggesting we’ll have a season that begins tomorrow. I say that because I prefaced this piece last year by writing, “I’m doing this a bit earlier than normal this year, and that could wind up being a silly decision depending on injuries and how Spring Training plays out.” That was on March 4, eight days later Covid shut down baseball. At any rate, fans are in the stands and the world is trending back towards normal. Despite a truncated season the Los Angeles Dodgers did as expected and emerged victorious with a World Series trophy. They are the odds-on favorites going into 2021, and it isn’t much of a surprise given the additional firepower they’ve brought in. Tampa Bay will look for a return trip to the World Series, but 162 games should allow for more nuanced results to take shape. This is an exciting rookie class, especially from a Minnesota perspective, so individual awards will be worth watching as well. Here’s the 2020 picks which included a correct World Series champion and NLCS matchup. Let’s get into it for 2021. MVP: American League – Mike Trout (Dark Horse Byron Buxton) National League – Juan Soto (Dark Horse Bryce Harper) It’s maybe unfair to pick Trout every year but given he’s literally the best the game has ever seen, it’s also incredibly hard to go against him. He posted a down year in 2020 and still wound up with a .993 OPS and a career worst fifth place finish in the AL MVP race. There are some contenders in the American League, and I like bounce back years for guys like Gleyber Torres and Alex Bregman, but this is Trout’s award until further notice. As a longshot the Twins Buxton makes sense. If he’s ever healthy for a full season, an OPS around .840 and his defense will get him a substantial number of votes. On the National League side, I’m going with a pair of players tied to the Washington Nationals. For a winner, it’s Juan Soto nabbing his first of what should be multiple individual awards. Sure, he’s got a Silver Slugger, but missing out on the Rookie of the Year would be vindicated with a quicker MVP than Ronald Acuna Jr. Soto is an anomaly in that he not only hits for ridiculous power, but also has now shown he can do so with an exceptional average. The plate discipline has always been there but the league leading 1.185 OPS a year ago was bananas. I liked Harper to take this award home last year as he had settled into Philadelphia a bit more, and then oddities hit in regards to the season. He’s a polarizing player, but ultimately underrated, and I think we get another award to substantiate that reality. Cy Young: American League – Kenta Maeda (Dark Horse Eduardo Rodriguez) National League – Jack Flaherty (Dark Horse Walker Buehler) I can understand if the Maeda pick looks homerish, but he’s coming off a second place finish a season ago and there’s no reason to believe he slows down. The Twins ace was untouchable this spring, and it seems people are sleeping on Minnesota with all of the White Sox hype this offseason. Maeda has long been a dominant arm and being hidden in Los Angeles didn’t get him his due. Another season like he had last year and he’s just a slight step back from Shane Bieber or Gerrit Cole away from taking the crown. Boston initially tabbed Rodriguez as their Opening Day starter prior to a bout of dead arm. He’s a feel-good story in returning from Covid-19 complications last season, but he’s also an incredibly good pitcher. I don’t know what to make of the Red Sox, but their ace should provide little to worry about. In the National League Central we may see more mediocrity than any other division in baseball. Both the Brewers and Cardinals would appear to be favorites, but neither have much to separate them from anyone else. If there’s a diamond in the rough for me, it’s Flaherty. He has looked the part since his debut, and another step forward would classify him as the type of ace any team would covet. It’s also probably not fair to dub Buehler as a dark horse, especially after picking him in this space a season ago. However, he’s working behind both Clayton Kershaw and Trevor Bauer for the Dodgers and a meteoric rise should be in the works. Rookie of the Year: American League – Jarred Kelenic (Dark Horse Wander Franco) National League Ke’Bryan Hayes (Dark Horse Dylan Carlson) Seattle all but admitted they are manipulating Kelenic’s service time, which is both unfortunate and understandable. The reality is that he’ll be there sooner rather than later though, and all the kid has done is rake. Kelenic put on a show this spring and was already successful at Double-A in 2019 as a teenager. The bat is going to play, and he should be a difference maker for Seattle as soon as May. I like Randy Arozarena in this space a decent amount but went with Franco as the dark horse anyways. The Rays have some exciting young options once again, and the greatest thing holding Franco back could be how soon he reaches the majors. Having watched Hayes in person a few times this spring it was apparent that he’s special. Third base is such a smooth position for him defensively, and that seems to help a young player acclimate if the bat wavers at any point. He hits rockets all over the place, and in a National League landscape that lacks top tier names, he should establish himself as the guy. St. Louis has a lot to like in Carlson, especially the power his bat brings to the plate. There’s probably going to be a few slumps throughout the season, but a few nice stretches of homer production could push him to the top of the leaderboard as well. Postseason: American League – Angels, Twins, Yankees Wild Card – Blue Jays, White Sox National League – Dodgers, Cardinals, Braves Wild Card – Padres, Mets ALCS – Twins over Yankees NLCS – Dodgers over Mets World Series – Dodgers over Twins I really liked this matchup a year ago and nailed half of it, time to go back to the well. Yeah, the Twins haven’t won a Postseason game in forever, but a post-hype situation seems like the perfect spot for them. Minnesota can not only win a game this year but take a couple of series on the way to representing the American League in the World Series. Too much is being made of a White Sox team without depth and looking at young volatility. Houston gets left out of the Postseason altogether but could both overtake the Angels or one of the Wild Card spots. I don’t love the Yankees going to the ALCS, regardless of who the face, because of the pitching staff. That said, you know they’ll add when warts present themselves during the course of the regular season. It shouldn’t e pre-determined in baseball with the season as long as it is, but I’m not going to be the one to pick against the Dodgers. They have a third starter that is one of the best arms in baseball, and a former top prospect that may struggle to find a real role anywhere. In short, the team is loaded. I don’t have much belief in anyone coming out of the NL Central, but the East should be a blast with Atlanta again being great and the Mets having overhauled their roster. San Diego is going to be a fun team all year and the coasts of the National League could really be where some of the best baseball is played. A repeat World Series winner for the first time since 2000, and the first back-to-back World Series victor from the National League since 1976, it’s happening. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I once had a degree in economics - admittedly it was in the 1960s so it is out dated. What I am trying to figure out is how do these intelligent, super rich owners in major league baseball get bamboozled. Okay, the LA Dodgers got Bauer. Wow is that special. Were they not going to win the NL West before they got him? What will he add? What if he gets hurt? How many people/teams were they bidding against? Last year the Angels signed Mike Trout to a $30 million dollars a year contract because he is the best in baseball and he had given them how many championships? I guess it was because their long term investment in Albert Pujols paid off so well. Now we have a $40 million dollar a year pitcher - and of course pitchers are not prone to injuries. Trevor Bauer really blossomed in a short strange Covid year. He is now 75 - 64 in 9 MLB seasons according to BR. Not even 10 victories per year. I know wins don't count (BS). If he starts 40 games (unlikely)he will be paid one million per game - does he have a refund for bad games? So what are they getting? Yes he has talent and will be really good for them, but how good? How much better than if they had signed Jake Odorizzi? Next year we will need a $50 million per year player and on and on. Why? What is the madness? I do not want billionaires to pocket all the profit, but my god is this ridiculous. The dollars are so insane I am losing my ability to watch the ball as it comes across the plate. Sorry for the rant, but I cannot help it. I remember when players got jobs in the off season. But I am sorry to be so old fashioned, poor MLB owners are hurting and want to have some relief from their Covid losses!

There is no more frustrating word to me in modern baseball than analytics. I love and fully embrace the new avenues in which we are able to evaluate and prepare in regards to the game of baseball. Unfortunately, boiling it down to a buzzword as “analytics” has become, leads to little more than a quick note suggestive of being well versed in actual understanding. This World Series is about two organizations that are fully capable of turning up their nose at those instances. Let’s not be naïve, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the second highest payroll in baseball for the 2020 season. It’s not as though Dave Roberts’ team is starved for talent. Similarly built organizations like the New York Yankees (1st) and the Boston Red Sox (3rd) find themselves at home, however. One key difference for the Dodgers is talent utilization. On Sunday night, settling in for a game seven against the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles started Dustin May. He was used as an opener with Tony Gonsolin working as the bulk arm. Quickly into the action the broadcast wondered whether that decision came from the manager or the front office. The likely reality is that the answer is simply both. Suggesting that modern evaluation for baseball success is hidden behind computer computations and that the game is played on paper wildly misunderstands analytics. The point isn’t to simply plug in the components of a calculated answer, but instead best position yourself based upon expected outcomes and marry that with the game on the field. Certainly, the Dodgers have paid for their fair share of talent, what they also know is how to best utilize it in order to capitalize on the effectiveness. There’s an incredible amount of nuance when it comes to how teams deploy information. Some quick digging shows that Los Angeles shifted 55% of the time in 2020. That was more than any team in baseball, one of only two organizations to do so more than 50% of the time and was the same standing they were in for 2019. Defensive positioning is just one call out that can reflect a progressive way of playing the game. The reality is that there’s more than one way to squeeze out opportunity in the win column. Take a look at the Tampa Bay Rays for example. They’ve long been considered *the* organization when it comes to deploying competitive advantages through analytical assessments. With the 28th highest payroll in baseball this year, they played to an American League best record and represent the league as the 2nd best team in the sport. Defensive positioning isn’t the way in which Tampa found themselves locking down a competitive advantage in 2020. They shifted just 33% of the time, 19th overall in the game. They didn’t bludgeon their way to being an offensive juggernaut. Hitting just 80 dingers they were only 14th in baseball, but the 9.4 fWAR compiled led to a top 10 offense within the game. The Rays made sure to value outs. In over 4,000 plate appearances this year not once did they sacrifice bunt. Where Tampa put things together in 2020 was on the mound. That’s an interesting revelation because they don’t have a Clayton Kershaw or Gerrit Cole. The Rays made an incredible swap (and partly thanks to Pittsburgh’s poor talent evaluation) in turning Chris Archer into the Tyler Glasnow package. Beyond the man with the hair and Blake Snell though, the Rays rotational is relatively nondescript. Their bullpen, however, is another story. In 2020 the Rays owned the best bullpen in baseball generating a combined 3.6 fWAR. By now you’d hope the names are more widely known, but from Castillo to Anderson, and Fairbanks to Curtiss, it’s a unit made of lockdown arms. What Tampa has done is rely on their own ability to develop arms rather than pay or reach for answers. Aaron Slegers and John Curtiss were castoffs from other organizations, Anderson was targeted in trade as was Fairbanks, and Castillo was internally groomed. What happens in Tampa Bay remains reliant upon open communication and buy-in from everyone involved. Being able to suggest that length from a starter isn’t as necessary as quality. Having the opportunity to deploy any arm at any time or doing away with traditional norms tied to specific roles, those are all instances that numbers back but can’t convey. By understanding how to gain a statistical advantage and then being able to deploy it is where the next stage of the game is taking us. Right now, we’re still too stuck on analytics being some catch-all descriptor, and there’s still a vocal old-guard looking to tear down progression. In all ventures however, the goal is progress. We’re seeing that in this sport, and the World Series will highlight it. This isn’t about a top and bottom spending team. It’s about two organizations that best utilized all of the talent they had at their disposal. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I found myself thinking through recent Twins history today and considered how much volatility there has been in terms of consistency. The Twins have been mostly bad, but when good, the performances have came and went rather quickly. 2020 truly looks like an open window, but it is Brian Dozier that I latched onto as the pinnacle of the roller coaster. After debuting in 2012 as a shortstop, Dozier quickly flamed out at the position after just 84 games there in his opening salvo. He would relocate to second base and it wasn’t until 2015 that he began to make his mark. He was an 8th round pick, and despite an appearance in both the Home Run Derby (2014) and All-Star Game (2015), he didn’t crack an .800 OPS until 2016. That was the year, at age-29, that it seemingly all came together. Dozier reinvented himself into a dead-pull hitter that was determined to find the quickest way over the left field fence. His 42 homers that season were the most by any Twins player during a single year not named Harmon Killebrew. He became a slugger despite a smaller stature, and he had risen to be called one of the best second basemen in the game. It really wasn’t since peak Robinson Cano that baseball had seen someone like Dozier. Brian wasn’t the prototypical uber-prospect, and he certainly wasn’t a five-tool player either. Like Cano, he was an offensive stalwart at an otherwise starved position. Around the league second base had become a destination for poor armed shortstops and was generally a position that you could find someone sitting right at league average. The 2016 Twins were abysmal in every sense of the word. They won just 59 games and manager Paul Molitor couldn’t get any more out of that squad if he tried. Thanks to Dozier’s dinger derby, there was at least something to tune into on a nightly basis. Unfortunately, much of his accomplishment was lost nationally in the vein of his club being so bad. He’d go one to follow up that performance with 34 dingers in 2017, a year in which Minnesota made the Postseason. Now having played for both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals since, Dozier’s career has already begun a downturn. He did post a .771 OPS last season while playing in 135 games and eventually winning a World Series ring. He had to settle for a minor league deal heading into 2020, but the expectation would be that he’d make the San Diego Padres Opening Day roster. I’m not sure if we’ll see Brian reach that .800 OPS plateau again or not, but he was a late bloomer that gave us one of the highest peaks in Twins history. The unfortunate reality is that it came during a period of extreme lows and the contributions proved hollow in the grand scheme of things. Thankfully, Dozier was a fan favorite and will not soon be forgotten in Twins Territory. His career will likely come to an eventually end being a rather nondescript one, but the memories will remain among the fondest to take place at Target Field. It will be interesting to see what we get from him in those nice new Padres threads, and what there is yet to come in the future. It will not be a career that’s celebrated with substantial accolades when he hangs em up, but it’s incredible to think how good he was, even if it was for such a brief time. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I’m doing this a bit earlier than normal this year, and that could wind up being a silly decision depending on injuries and how Spring Training plays out. Regardless, we aren’t sitting on a slew of unsigned talent in early March, and I’m confident with the look of many big-league squads going into 2020 at this point. Let’s hand out some hardware. The Washington Nationals will head into the season looking to defend their World Series trophy. That hasn’t been successfully accomplished in 20 years, since the New York Yankees ripped off three in a row. I don’t see that trend changing in 2020, and that should be an exciting reality for baseball fans. The sport has never seen so many young superstars, and the landscape of the league’s best is once again shifting. Here's what I had going into 2019. I got a couple of the awards right, and nailed the World Series, but ultimately came up just short of getting the winner. MVP: American League – Mike Trout (Dark Horse Gleyber Torres) National League – Bryce Harper (Dark Horse Kris Bryant) Until further notice, Mike Trout is the selection in the American League. He’s not only the greatest player in the game right now, but very well could be the best we’ve ever seen do it. There isn’t a hole in his game, and he seems to find ways to take another step forward each year. The Angels star now has a more loaded lineup around him and will look to get back to playing 150+ games. Generating 10+ fWAR for the first time since 2013 seems like a good bet. After signing the massive deal with the Phillies, Bryce Harper had somewhat of a disappointing season. You’ll certainly take an .882 OPS any day of the week however, and now acclimated entering his age-27 campaign, a jump back up to a 1.000+ OPS is something I’m comfortable with. Marry the last two years patience and production to generate something that should be near the total package. On the dark horse side, it’s more about what I like in each situation as opposed to legitimate threats to the actual award. Gleyber looks like an absolute superstar, and the Yankees are already going to be leaning on him heavily. Bryant has been plagued by injuries and underwhelming narratives, but he’s still coming off a .903 OPS. I don’t know what the Cubs will do, but he’ll stir that drink for sure. Cy Young: American League – Gerrit Cole (Dark Horse Jose Berrios) National League – Walker Buehler (Dark horse Jack Flaherty) Switching teams worked out well for Cole the last time he did it, and there’s no reason to expect his dominance to fade in New York. He’s pitched in a hitter’s ballpark before, and the Yankees rotation will count on him heavily. I tabbed Buehler as the pick last year in the National League, and I might have been just a year early. He finished with the 4th best fWAR and could certainly catch the two Nationals arms in the 2020 season. This is still Jacob deGrom’s title to lose, but I like the Dodgers ace. Maybe recycling Jose Berrios as a dark horse here isn’t fair, but he’s truly so close. A strong finish to his 2019 would’ve have him in a much better position, and he still finished 7th among AL starters in terms of fWAR. Minnesota is going to make noise again, and he should be expected to lead the rotation. If you’ve watched the Cardinals at all then there’s nothing under-the-radar about Flaherty. He’s a stud and emerging as one of baseball’s best arms. He mixed into the tier right below elite territory last year, but another step forward would have him second to no one. Rookie of the Year: American League – Luis Robert (Dark Horse Jo Adell) National League – Gavin Lux (Dark Horse Mitch Keller) One of the chief requirements in garnering Rookie of the Year consideration is playing time, and Luis Robert will have that on his side. He’s an uber-prospect and will be with the White Sox from the jump. I’d expect some growing pains, but there’s too much talent not to side with the favorite in the AL. Lux made his debut last season for the Dodgers and will be unleashed fully in 2020. He’s a middle infield stud and should have little issue producing with a star-studded lineup around him. Back to that playing time issue, which is the only reason I don’t like Adell over Robert. I think the Angels start their outfield prospect in the minors and holding him out for a month or two could make the counting stats lag behind. He looks the part of a worth specimen to play in a Mike Trout led outfield, and you can bet he’ll hold his own. Keller’s big-league career began ugly with the Pirates last year, but he’s far too talented to continue going down that road. He still has rookie eligibility and should use the lessons from 2019 to establish himself as a very good arm for Derek Shelton’s squad. Postseason: American League- Yankees, Twins, Astros Wild Card – Angels, Rays National League- Braves, Cubs, Dodgers Wild Card – Reds, Nationals ALCS – Twins over Yankees NLDS – Dodgers over Braves World Series – Dodgers over Twins This probably comes off looking like a homer pick, but the Twins showed they’re for real last year. Sure, they didn’t hit in a three-game sample size against New York, but this is a team that will win less regular season games and ultimately be better positioned in the Postseason. Both New York and Houston are going to be very good, but losing Severino is a big blow, while the Astros are eventually going to be squashed by the scrutiny. One of the most interesting teams in the AL this year should be the Angels. On the National League side, it’s hard to look away from the talent Atlanta has throughout the lineup. Acuna is established, but I think Albies is the guy that takes another step forward. That division will be tightly contested, but I like Washington more than I’ll ever trust the Mets. Chicago is a complete wild card, and Cincinnati is one of those “won the offseason” clubs. It all comes down to how good the Dodgers are, and the only definition needed there is “very.” Los Angeles has come up short two of the past three years. That ends in 2020 regardless of who is across the diamond. Mookie Betts wasn’t even a necessary addition, but with him in the mix, they’ll be an unstoppable force come October. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In the end, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stood strong. After originally agreeing to a one-for-one swap of Brusdar Graterol for Kenta Maeda, things needed to be tweaks after the Red Sox decided against the Minnesota prospects medicals. Two days before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, we got resolution. The Twins wound up not dealing with Boston at all, instead sending Graterol to the Dodgers (who had no problem with his medicals). They got Maeda, $10 million, and a yet-to-be announce prospect. Sweetening the deal just a bit, Luke Raley (who was acquired with Devin Smeltzer in the Brian Dozier trade) goes back to Los Angeles, and Minnesota sent the Dodgers their Comp B pick (67th overall). Obviously the one-for-one version of this deal was the most ideal for the Twins. It’s likely why they agreed in the first place, and assumedly why Boston decided they needed to reassess things. However, Minnesota moved a very good arm they believe is ticketed for relief work, in order to get a top-50 starter that could slot in right behind Jose Berrios in the starting rotation. Losing Raley isn’t the top 10 prospect situation that Boston was demanding, and while he’s a nice player, this isn’t an outfield he was going to crack given what’s established and who’s ahead of him. Getting the cash is hardly inconsequential as well. Maeda is guaranteed just $12.5 million over the course of his deal, and being on the hook for just $2.5 million of that is a nice situation to be in. Incentives drive the price up plenty, but being performance base, they’re benchmarks the Twins would happily see come to fruition. I dissected this swap when the news originally broke, and nothing changes for the Twins from a roster construction point now. They still have a very good bullpen, this rotation is substantially better, and there’s still significant prospect capital to make more moves when deemed necessary. Through all of this the only real loser is the former Twins fireballer. Graterol watched his name be drug through the mud in a very public way despite showing no indications of immediate injury concern. Instead of believing he could go down the street, he’ll now hop a plane from Fort Myers to Glendale beginning his 2020 season with a new organization. Chaim Bloom landed some very solid prospects despite packaging a superstar into a salary dump. The Dodgers net a pitcher in Price that is more than desirable if healthy, and arguably the second best player on the planet in Mookie Betts. Minnesota never needed to be involved in any of this, and at the end of the day they really weren’t. An opportunity arose to get their impact starter two days before camp opens, and the front office jumped at it. Now I think we can put a bow on this offseason and commend both Falvey and Levine for orchestrating what boils down to a solid “A” effort.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine just put an absolute bow on the 2020 Minnesota Twins offseason. After acquiring Josh Donaldson in January, the refrain was whether or not he could pitch. Now nabbing Kenta Maeda from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the answer is yes he can. Across Twins Territory there should be some absolute shock with this one. Not only was the impact-pitching arm acquired, but it absolutely cost an impact prospect. Brusdar Graterol showed up on the Major League scene last summer and brandished his triple-digit fastball. Showing off the bazooka arm, it was hard not to dream on him as a starting prospect. It was apparent that there have been concerns about what Graterol profiles at in the bigs however. He’s never pitched more than 102 innings in a season, and he never worked exclusively as a starter in 2019. The talk going into the year was that Minnesota would unleash him in the pen, and the feeling was he had not yet developed the necessary secondary stuff to make it multiple times through the order. Any time you see a big name prospect like this moved, it’s going to be hard to sift through the feelings. The message from Minnesota here is clear however. The window is open and the front office has kicked down the door. They see Graterol as a reliever long term, and conversely viewed him as the third best option in the up and coming trio including Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran. In Maeda the Twins get their coveted impact arm. He’s soon-to-be 32-years-old and is not a free agent until 2024. He will be paid just $3.125 million per year the rest of his deal, and he’s a strikeout threat pumping double-digits per nine innings. I'm not sure Minnesota viewed the tradeoff like this when the offseason started, but they passed on signing a 30-year-old Madison Bumgarner (with nearly identical numbers) to a five-year deal paying $17 million per season. In comparison, their decision looks pretty good. Although Maeda’s ERA’s haven’t always been glowing, he’s posted a FIP north of 4.00 just once in his four year MLB career. Walks have crept up in recent years, but he generally does a good job avoiding danger. Slotting in behind both Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, there’s zero reason why he can’t elevate and assume an even large role in the rotation. This move pushes Minnesota’s payroll up above $140 million landing somewhere around $145 million. That’s a nice expansion on the previous record of $128.4 million in 2018, and gives them plenty of flexibility now and in the future. Buckle up Twins fans; we’ve got a contender here. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I join others with regret that we continue to move down the the next pitcher on the list essays. If I was more motivated I would go back and see how many "sign this pitcher" essays have been on the site since Thanksgiving. But the essence of so many comments is - why would they come here, not what they would sign for. I do not think that it is money that is winning. If you or your girlfriend are from Philadelphia you want to go home, if you have had your career in warm cities or are tired of being in cold and windy Chicago then you look to places like Atlanta and LA. It is unfortunate that we do not have a WAR for location - where would we rank? Yankees have bad weather, but they have mystique and money. So how can we evaluate our location - situation? What are the qualities that players want? History Yes it matters if you are the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox. Our Minnesota history is now 59 years - not quite the Cincinnati Reds (1869) or Atlanta dating to 1876 with stops in Boston and Milwaukee, or the Cubs who started out as the White Stockings (that's true) in 1870. But if we accept the Senators (Nationals) as our historic heritage goes back to the 1872 Olympics so we are in the discussion, however, even Twins Daily finds it hard to talk about the Senators/Nationals/Olympics/Blue Legs/Statesmen. Winning records and legends New York Yankees (40 appearances in WS) wins this, but the Dodgers (20) aren't far behind. They may be lacking a classic win like they had with Kirk Gibson in the last couple decades, but they are still always in the battle. The Giants (20) have classic history from both NY and SF in World Series lore. The Cardinals are often considered to be the Yankees of the west and NL and they have 19 appearances. The Twins have 6 with their Washington DC history doubling the appearances. We rank number 14 there. Climate Yes it is nice to pitch those April and May games in above zero temps with no snow on the ground. Unfortunately we have only the Brewers and Detroit to compare with Minneapolis/St Paul in this category and they are both south of us. Only Seattle is further north and they have an ocean to warm them. Club House Culture It is nice to play with your buddies even though the Sal Bando, Reggie Jackson, Vida Blue A's showed that championships aren't always for the most compatible troops and Leo Durocher said - Nice Guys finish Last. But in today's game the Twins are putting together a really nice atmosphere that should build up its WAR and the millennials should love it. A really nice place to live In my mind there is no place better to live than Minnesota, Lakes, Rivers, Parks, shopping, sports, education. Not everyone will see that - some care about income tax despite their fortunes and we cannot compete with a state that has no tax - seven US states don't impose state income tax — Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming. Now I would not trade because I like what our tax buys us, but I am not an agent. So where does that leave us? Our location/team WAR has to be in the 40 percentile by this list so then it is MONEY. Can we buy loyalty?

Taking a view at the Major League Baseball Postseason there’s an incredible number of great storylines to follow. You have the lowest payroll in baseball making the field, a major league record setting home run lineup, and a handful of expected participants. For the next month we’ll be treated to the culmination of a 162-game schedule used to produce only the best of the best. Looking back at how I saw things entering the year, I didn’t do too horribly. Looks like I’ll nail a couple of award winners, and four of the six division champs. From there things went downhill, but this is our chance to get it right in October. Let’s get into it. Wild Card Round: Rays over Athletics Nationals over Brewers We’ve got two intriguing matchups for a one-game situation here. In the American League Tampa Bay is probably the most welcoming team of needing to win a single game. They’ve pieced together nine inning affairs all season long and they still have frontline pitching in the rotation to come out firing. I like the Oakland lineup a good deal more than what Tampa brings to the table but believe that this game will be won on the bump. In the National League we get two teams that got hot down the stretch. Milwaukee is without their MVP, and the pitching is a definite question mark there, but they’ve had some key contributors step up in big ways. I liked the Nationals as a World Series team before the season started, and I still wouldn’t be shocked if they made a run. Their rotation rivals that of the Houston Astros at the top, and the lineup is filled with guys that can burn you. There’s zero denying the bullpen is a complete mess, but if they could provide some room for the starting arms, they’ll ride them hard. Divisional Round: Twins over Yankees Astros over Rays Braves over Cardinals Dodgers over Nationals Arguably the greatest narrative going into the Postseason is the history Minnesota brings with it. They haven’t won a game in October since 2004, and they’ve been dominated by the New York Yankees. One thing about that rings certain though, it’s history and you can bet no one in that clubhouse gives a damn. The pitching matchups, rotation and bullpen, are relatively even. So, to are lineups that went one-two in home run production this season. James Paxton being a lefty against the powerful righty Twins lineup will set the stage in game one. If the Twins steal one in New York, and they’ve been great on the road, this series will get interesting quick. I don’t think you can make much argument against Houston being the best team in baseball. They have the rotation, bullpen, and lineup to compete with anyone. Charlie Morton will do his best against his former team, but I’m not sure that Tampa has the lineup to hang with the Astros over the course of a five-game series. The pitching matchups with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow contributing are going to be great, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this be a bit of a test for A.J. Hinch’s club. If there’s a team that could surprise in the National League, I think it’s the Braves. They’re filled with youth that’s contributing in big ways, and their lineup is as potent as anyone. Josh Donaldson has re-emerged as a star, and his presence with Freddie Freeman should provide plenty of veteran leadership for Brian Snitker’s club. St. Louis performed admirably down the stretch to put themselves in this position, but I’m not sure they were tested in the NL Central. They’ll take a game or two, but just don’t see enough here for any real noise. I’d still love to put the Nationals in a position to make the World Series, and while Los Angeles has some bullpen woes of their own, I just don’t trust Washington enough behind their three horses. Juan Soto is going to be fun on a big stage, but the Dodgers are littered with talent and they’ll pull the right strings to advance. Dave Roberts has been here plenty, and wanting to get over the hump, this is probably his best opportunity. Championship Round: Astros over Twins Dodgers over Braves There’s a significant amount of parallels between Houston and Minnesota. Similarly constructed organizations at this point, the Twins are still looking at the Astros in a light of what they aspire to be. In a seven-game series when Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke can all take the ball twice if need be, Rocco Baldelli’s piecemeal rotation is going to be up against it. Minnesota is going to need to blast their way to victories at the hitter friendly Minute Maid, but they’ll be doing it against arms that have no intention of giving up runs. It will be fun to see the Twins garner this experience, and while nothing is certain next year, there’s a good deal of returning youth that can use it as fuel to a fire propelling them to take the next step. A toss up goes to the favorite here. If the Dodgers pen is going to be exposed before the World Series, this is the lineup capable of doing it. Atlanta is the real deal offensively, and while they’ll face Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, there’s no one they’re going to be afraid of. Cody Bellinger could have wrapped up an MVP when the regular season concluded, and though he slowed down some in stretches this year, elevating when the lights are brightest wouldn’t be unexpected for the young star. Two top seeds matching up together, the two best teams in baseball for much of the year, let me have it. World Series: Astros over Dodgers Just too good to get knocked off, and too hungry to be denied, Houston gets back to the top of the baseball world. Houston didn’t revamp their whole way of operating and develop this much talent to win one title. After falling short in 2018, they’ll get their second ring in three years. Alex Bregman looks like an MVP candidate, Yordan Alvarez is the unquestioned AL Rookie of the Year, and there’s a host of veterans that make this the most dangerous organization in the sport. I don’t expect a veteran club like the Dodgers to put up anything short of a difficult test, but Houston would need to get in their own way to come up empty handed here. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

11 1/2 game lead is huge, losing it by August 10 is terrifying. True, we have time left and Cruz will come back and maybe Buxton too. Jack Cave might be replaced by someone who can do better in MLB from our minor leagues and maybe we will strike gold with one or two pitchers as we allow the entire minor league system to audition for us this year, but still 11.5 games! That is a lead worthy of 7 percent of the season. So come on Twins. Beat the bad teams. I think most have given up on beat the good teams and get into the playoffs where, I am sorry to say, you will only be playing good teams. Do you remember the 1969 Cubs 4.5 games up going into September and then winning just 1/3rd of their games to finish 8 behind the miracle Mets? I know NY had a great year, but poor Chicago. By the way they had 4 players on that team go to the HOF. Or our old manager Gene Mauch and his 1964 team? They led by 6 1/2 games with 12 to play. They had Dick Allen and HOF Jim Bunning. They lost 10 Straight and St Louis went to the series! That hurts. Tied for the lead on the last day of the season the 2007 Mets blew the pennant and the Phillies won. The Mets had Pedro and Glavine in their rotation but went 1 - 6 to finish the season. Then in 2008 they fired their manager part way through the year and had a 3 1/2 game lead with 17 games to go. But losing 10 of 17 is not the way to the World Series. The 1951 Dodgers had one of the saddest losses - the NY Giants steam rolled right over them with a 37 - 7 ending to the season to tie and a playoff with the home run heard around the world and still being played every year. The Dodgers had been up 13.5 on August 11! Yes that is tomorrow. And then they went to the playoff game - one game to decide and lead 4 - 1 going into the ninth. Ralph Branca - not a bad pitcher - against Dale Long - not a great hitter - and a three run home run destroyed the Dodger's year. Lets enjoy 2009, the year the Tigers led by 7 games on September 6 over the MINNESOTA TWINS. We won 10 of 11 and Alexi Casilla put us in the playoffs! In 1978 the Red Sox led by 9 over the Brewers and 14 over the Yankees on July 19th. The Yankees went 52 - 21 and into a playoff. Anyone heard of Bucky Dent? Well the Red Sox fans will never forget him as he ripped the hearts out the Boston team. 2011 the Red Sox again were leading by 9 games over the Rays on September 1 and then played a 7 - 20 final month and lost the pennant to Tampa Bay. 1995 the Angels, who have been a playoff deprived team, led by a familiar 11.5 on August 9 and then the wheels fell off. going 12 - 27 and were put out of the misery by Randy Johnson in a one-game playoff. 1998 they had a 3 1/2-game lead in the division with 19 to play and lost 13 of their last 19. In 1987 the Blue Jays held a 3.5 game lead with 7 to go and could not win another game. The Tigers went to the playoffs. Where they would face the Twins. 2003 the Mariners had the best record in baseball, but (does this sound familiar?) they played just under 500 ball for the rest of the season and took the off season off. The 2010 Padres had a last half season collapse and after having just one three-game losing streak all season, the Padres proceeded to drop 10 straight. (Sounds too close to home). With a 6 1/2 game lead on August 25 they came the closest that the poor team could come to Post Season and watched Arizona go to the series. There are more where these came from. Painful I know but that is baseball. Let's go Twins - this is a list I do not want you to be on.

The full story can be read by clicking through here. It’s no secret this year hasn’t gone as planned for the Minnesota Twins. It’s also no secret that the Twins — who look drastically different than they did even a week ago — will see significant turnover this offseason on the roster. Not only were traded players Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn and Zach Duke slated to become free agents in the offseason, but so too are Joe Mauer and possibly also Ervin Santana. The upshot here is that the Twins, who had a franchise-high $128.7 million payroll to start the season according to Cot’s Contracts, have just $31.7 million hard committed to next year’s team. Here’s the breakdown of those commitments: $8.375 million to Addison Reed $8 million to Michael Pineda and Jason Castro $1.25 million in possible buyouts to Fernando Rodney and Logan Morrison $5.95 million in dead money owed to Phil Hughes Now that number will obviously jump with guys like Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman and Trevor May eligible for arbitration again as well as first-timers Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, and there’ll be guys making the MLB minimum that’ll factor in as well, but the overarching theme is that the Twins are going to have some money to work with. It’s also coming at a truly great time; this is going to be one of the best free-agent markets in recent memory. Superstars available include Manny Machado and Bryce Harper but there are also players across a number of other spectrums that will improve whichever team they sign with. Clayton Kershaw and David Price can opt out of their deals — though both have had their issues in recent years — and Josh Donaldson also still carries some name value. All three could be big targets for most of the league if they hit the open market. Charlie Morton, Nelson Cruz and Jed Lowrie are having great seasons in their mid-30s, and could make for good bridge guys for teams waiting on prospects. Marwin Gonzalez is a Swiss Army Knife who can hit a bit, Elvis Andrus can opt out of his deal and there are lots of players who’ll be looking for short deals to bounce back, like Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Lucroy, Neil Walker and even Lynn, Morrison and Dozier as well. Nobody would argue that it would be terrific to see the Twins land Harper or Machado. But at the cost of $30 million plus per year on what’ll likely be a deal with an opt-out in a few years — extremely player friendly, a la Jason Heyward — the odds just aren’t in favor of this happening. That’s before considering if that player would come to Minnesota — even if the Twins were the highest bidder. It’s also worth noting that both players would chew up a large part of the financial flexibility the team would likely wish to have as some of its youngsters move into their more expensive seasons. Not only that, but it’s not like the Twins really have an outfield spot or a lack of depth at shortstop in the years to come. Don’t mistake that for someone saying “CAN’T SIGN MACHADO BECAUSE ROYCE LEWIS IS A-COMIN’” or anything to that effect, but it certainly is a consideration. But that’s why I’m coming out and endorsing the following like a politician endorsing a colleague: The Minnesota Twins should make Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal their No. 1 free agency target — with a bullet — this offseason.

It is hard to put into words how much Brian Dozier has meant to the Twins organization. It has been a blast watching Brian grow into one of the better power hitters in the league. He has had a bit of a down year, and that is a shame, but that does not take away the joy he has brought to not only Twins fans, but the community as well. Many think of Dozier as the guy who gets upset when teams bunt for a hit in the ninth inning in a blowout like he did in the first series of the year in Baltimore when Chance Sisco did just that. But that is not who Dozier is. He is much more like this story from a few weeks back. He came up at age 25 in 2012 to the Twins while the team was in the midst of a 66-96 season, good for last place in the AL Central as well as the entire American League. That year, Dozier was called up in May to replace Justin Morneau. He’d go onto hit six homers and drive in 33 in 316 at-bats. His OPS was only .603, but that he would make a huge jump from there on. Even with the team continuing to lose, No. 2 had become a feared power hitter in the Twins lineup. From the time he made his debut on May 7, 2012, through 2014, the Twins had a record of just 195-264 and never finished above fourth in the division. Still, Brian improved his homer total from six in 2012 to 18 in 2013 to 23 in 2014. Along with that, his OPS improved to .762 in 2014. Everything all started to come together in 2015. Minnesota started out hot in 2015, and so did Dozier. Heading into June, the Twins had a record of 30-19, and they were 49-40 at the All-Star break, firmly in contention for a playoff spot. During that first half, he gave us Twins fans some unforgettable moments. Dozier, who was in the running for the Final Vote for the All-Star game, hit two walk-off homers in the span of a week. First, he crushed a homer to left field off Baltimore’s Tommy Hunter to beat the Orioles 4-2. Then, he gave Target Field its best moment since Jim Thome’s walk-off in 2010 vs. Chicago. With the Twins trailing 6-1 in the ninth inning against Detroit, it appeared Minnesota was going to fall to 2-9 against the Tigers on the year. Instead, they strung together four hits as well as a walk and a hit batter to cut the Detroit lead to 6-5 with runners on first and second and one out. Detroit closer Joakim Soria hung a curve to Dozier, and the Twins second baseman blasted it off the facing of the upper deck for the improbable win. He fell in the Final Vote to Mike Moustakas of Kansas City, but Dozier wound up going to Cincinnati anyway, replacing Toronto’s Jose Bautista. All he did in his first All-Star game was hit a homer in the eighth inning off Pittsburgh’s Mark Melancon in the American League’s 6-3 win. He was just the second Twins player with a pinch-hit homer in an All-Star game, joining Twins legend Harmon Killebrew. He joined Killebrew and another Twins legend, Kirby Puckett, as the only Twins players to homer in an All-Star game, period. He had a disappointing second half of the season, and the Twins faded a bit. After hitting 19 bombs in the first half of the season, he only hit nine after the break. After the break, his batting average went from .256 down to .236, and his OPS went from the .841 he had in the first half down to .751 at season’s end. Even then, they had a chance to make the playoffs heading into the final series of the season, but Minnesota was outscored 14-3 in a 3-game sweep at the hands of the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals. There was plenty of optimism after that season, but the Twins stumbled to the league’s worst record. But even then, Dozier gave Twins fans a reason to come out to Target Field. The former Southern Miss standout hit 42 bombs in 2016, which set an American League record for homers as a second baseman in one season, surpassing former New York Yankees and Texas Rangers standout Alfonso Soriano. The guy had turned into one of the most feared sluggers in the game. Not bad for somebody who only hit 16 home runs combined in the minors. He had another great year in 2017, helping lead the Twins back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, as he hit .271 with 34 homers and 93 RBI. Dozier also hit a leadoff home run in the Wild Card game against the Yankees. Yes, he and a number of teammates have had a rough first four months of this season, which is why they’re at the point they are at. Although, he did give us fans one more lasting memory, as he hit a walk-off grand slam off Tampa Bay’s Matt Andriese in the last game before the All-Star break. It is unfortunate that this is the way things had to end because Brian has been such a good player on the field since he came up here and has made an even bigger impact off of it. Whether it was hitting walk-off homers, like the one he hit in Detroit to cap off a big comeback, or if it was just bonding with fans, Brian has given us tons of memories in his seven years here, and we wish you nothing but the best in Los Angeles. Thank you, No. 2!