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I’m not exactly sure why I didn’t put something like this together in the past, but there’s definitely more time on all our hands as the world responds to a global pandemic. Baseball allows us to consume the sport in so many different avenues, and while I appreciate your readership both here and on Twitter @tlschwerz, there’s been more than a few great books on the game that have come out in recent years. With the analytical age being almost entirely focused on the consumption of information, we are now being provided content that can act as an avenue for knowledge advancement. Still rooted within the confines of the sport, there are literature works of art that challenge the way we think and push the boundaries for what is to come. These authors are well known within the baseball world, and some of them have worked directly on the biggest stages of the sport. In no particular order, here’s a list of some recommendations I would have: The Arm – Jeff Passan With the emergence of Tommy John regularity over the course of the past few seasons there has been no better depiction of what has taken place and why. Passan dives into doctoral recommendations and advice, while cataloging just how we got here. Smart Baseball – Keith Law Start with why bunting may be a dying art and add in how to squeeze the most out of the only finite parameter in the sport, your 27 outs. Law provides knew ways to think about execution and outlines solid arguments as to why they make sense. The Only Rule Is It Has To Work – Ben Lindbergh & Sam Miller What happens when you allow to analytically driven minds to completely architect and steer a professional team? This book has your answer. Two Baseball Prospectus minds are given the keys to do as they please and this blends real personalities with calculated decisions. The MVP Machine – Ben Lindberg & Travis Sawchik Much like Lindbergh’s previous entry on this list, The MVP Machine is a must for number crunching fans. While the book does highlight both the Astros and Red Sox World Series runs, the message is clear. It isn’t about finding the diamond in the rough as much as it is creating that player. Because of data, organizations now can do just that. The Inside Game- Keith Law Following a similar thread as the one explored in Smart Baseball, Law is out to find the why behind the what. Baseball produces decisions at a blistering pace, and some of them are more well received than others. Understanding why a choice was the correct one, why it wasn’t, and what drives it all is a fascinating case study that can reveal plenty about ourselves. Swing Kings – Jared Diamond After analytics paved the way as a new buzz word, it stepped back for launch angle to take over. As more balls than ever leave the yard Swing Kings is there to analyze the trend and what players are saying in regards to staying power. This isn’t as much of a wheel reinvention as it’s billed, and the positive results suggest there’s plenty of reason to buy in. If you’re looking for more of a biography or story based read, here are some of my favorites in that category: Papi – David Ortiz The Phenomenon – Rick Ankiel Juiced – Jose Canseco What are some of your favorites? For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In the fourth and final installment of a conversation with Keith Law, we discussed what goes into the thinking when a team has the #1 overall pick in the draft. What factors would he use if he was the scouting director for the team with the top selection? I think his response speaks very well to the fact that it is not an easy decision this year. Law’s comments about the options remind us that there are choices at number one, that it’s not a slam dunk choice. One more reminder, tonight at 6:30, Keith Law will appear with fellow baseball authors Peter Schilling, Jr., and Michael Fallon for a book reading, discussion and signing. Head to Moon Palace Books in southeast Minneapolis to be a part of this event. Get your copy of Smart Baseball signed by Keith Law. We all know the catch phrase that teams like to use when talking about early draft picks. “Best Player Available” is the popular, and correct, thing to do. Who will be the best player in the minds of your scouting department? That is the player you want. However, there are many factors that a scouting department will consider in determining who they will select and invest millions of dollars.I asked Keith Law for his general thoughts on what a team should consider when making the #1 overall pick. “My personal philosophy… The history of the #1 pick, you are more likely to get a generational talent or an all-world sort of player than any other spot. It’s a rare opportunity. Of course, you never want to pick there again.” The top player on Law’s board is the top player on most people’s board right now, though even now that is subject to change. “If you look at Hunter Greene, the 17-year-old high school right-handed pitcher/shortstop from Southern California, he’s first on my rankings, and I believe he’s first on MLB.com’s too. I think he has a chance to be an absolute superstar. I would take him recognizing the risk, but you want to roll the dice on a chance to get a franchise-defining sort of player. However, that is simply my philosophy, and it isn’t my money so it’s pretty easy for me to say that.” Money is a factor. While the draft slots have changed a bit this year, teams at the top - those with the most slotted money available to use - can still be creative. The best example in recent years was the Astros selecting Carlos Correa first overall in 2012 and signing him for well under slot value. They then used the extra slot money to select Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz later. Could the Twins consider that strategy? Should they? “And money is always a factor. If Hunter Greene wants $8 million and Kyle Wright of Vanderbilt says he’ll sign for $5 million, you might be able to do great things with that $3 million in savings.” Law continued, “Taking Wright, even if you don’t believe he’s the best player, may be the better choice because of the value. They have one extra pick and another at the top of the second round, you can overpay guys later and get more talent in total.” With the Twins farm system lacking the high-end talent (as we discussed in Part 3), adding three high-quality prospects in the draft certainly sounds appealing. We don’t know what Greene or Wright or McKay or others would ask. Those discussions will start occurring in the coming weeks. But the strategy is sound.” With the #1 overall pick, you simply cannot take a guy who busts completely. Ceiling is great, but floor likely comes into play as well. Law explains, “There is another philosophy that says if you pick first, you don't want to zero out on that. Hunter Greene is a high school right-hander. No high school right-hander has ever gone first overall. It’s risky. Maybe you take Wright, who’s at Vanderbilt, who’s the best college pitcher in the class for me. He’s been pitching out of his mind the last month. He’s got size. He’s got stuff. He’s got command. I mean, Vanderbilt is as good of pedigree as you can get for a pitcher. So maybe you say, we know that guy’s a big league starter. He’s at least a three, probably a two, and he might be a one. That’s good. You would take that. Especially the Twins. They’ve struggled to develop good young starting pitcher. You would take that.” In summary, Law agrees that Greene presents the highest ceiling. However, he comes with a lot of risk. Wright has a high ceiling, though not as high as Greene, but his floor is most likely significantly higher too. “Would you take that if I told you that in passing on Hunter Greene, there’s a 30% chance you’re passing on Bob Gibson. Maybe Hall of Famer is a bit much, but a multiple-time All-Star, a Cy Young contender in Greene. He might be that.” Law recently had the opportunity to see Greene and talk with him for an upcoming story. He came away incredibly impressed. “He might get to the big leagues by 20. He’s 17, and I got to interview him a couple of weeks ago. This is an impressive person. It’s an impressive body. You don’t see kids like that. I see kids all the time for the job. I don’t see many kids build like that, athletic like that, loose like that, still projectable and already throwing in the upper-90s.” With the Twins having so many young players in their pre-arbitration and pre-free agency years, maybe there is a goal to get someone who can help more quickly. “At the same time, do you want to wait 3-5 years for a high school pitcher, or do you want to take the college pitcher who could be in your rotation in 12 months?” These are all factors and considerations that Twins first-year Scouting Director Sean Johnson has likely thrown around in his head, and thrown off of all of the area scouts, and thrown off of Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and others. Simply, there isn’t an easy #1 overall choice in the 2017. There isn’t a Stephen Strasburg, there there isn’t a Bryce Harper. Making it even more difficult, Law acknowledges there are likely more than just the two players (Greene and Wright). “I could go back and forth, and I could make a good case for either side. Those are just two of them. You will hear Brendan McKay’s name though he’s falling off at this point. But he may still be a strong consideration at one. There are other names in this group because there’s not a hitter. There’s not a Bryce Harper where you look and say that’s a sure thing. The bat plays and he’s got power. I can check off a bunch of things that are virtual guarantees. We’re talking about pitchers, and pitchers are scary. I’ve been in draft rooms with Toronto where we took pitchers and we were sure of what we were getting, and we didn’t get that.” I mentioned to Law that I had just done a radio spot and when asked who I would take with the #1 pick, I surprised the show’s hosts by saying Kyle Wright. Law made me feel better about my (admittedly hypothetical) selection. “You’re not wrong. I guess there are wrong answers, but Kyle Wright is not a wrong answer. I don’t know if there’s really one right answer this year.” McKay’s name has surfaced with the Twin and the top overall pick. Those voices have seemingly quieted of late. And it’s because of the things scouts (and fans) have seen the last couple of weekends. “When I saw him in February, he was 90-95. We’ve had reports from the last two weekends where he’s been upper-80s and topping out at (91 or 92). That’s a little concerning. He was never overpowering. He’s going to live by command, by mixing his pitches. Now you’re telling me it’s an average fastball? It’s not a high school kid's where you’ve projecting it to get better. It’s a college arm thinking this is probably what it is. That would worry me. He’s still a good pitcher, but at this point, if I were in Falvey’s shoes, I’d say we’re not doing that at one. So what do you think? There are a lot of ways to think about who the Twins should draft with the first overall pick. All of them make sense. Things to consider include: CeilingFloorLikelihood of reaching ceilingFinancial creativity (can you get two of three high-level talents by signing someone for less at one?)TimelinesI would really like to thank Keith Law for spending some time talking to me the other day about a variety of topics. It was a nice conversation that felt like it could have gone much longer. One more time, you’ve got the opportunity tonight to rub elbows with Keith Law, hear a reading of his new book Smart Baseball, listen to some baseball discussion and get autographs. 6:30 tonight at Moon Palace Books in Minneapolis. If you missed any of the previous article, here they are: Part 1 - Keith Law On Smart Baseball Part 2 - Keith Law On Derek Falvey And The 2017 Twins Part 3 - Keith Law On The Twins Minor Leagues Click here to view the article

ESPN’s Keith Law will be at Moon Palace Books in Minneapolis at 6:30 p.m. on Thursday night. He’ll be part of a reading, discussion and signing his new book, Smart Baseball. We discussed the book with Law previously, but he was kind enough to discuss some Twins topics as well. We’ll share some of those thoughts in the next day or so. In this installment, Law discussed his thoughts on the quality start of the 2017 Twins season, and what he believes Derek Falvey’s needs might be.The Twins are off to a solid start this season. Entering play on Wednesday, the team is 19-16 and remains a ½ game ahead of Cleveland in the AL Central (admittedly with 127 more games to play). So, I asked Keith Law what his thoughts are on the Twins start and the team’s new front office regime. How would Derek Falvey and Thad Levine rank according to other front office leaders? Can we tell anything yet? According to Law, “I would say it’s probably too early.” The reality is that the Twins were a ways behind most of the competition when it comes to analytical staffing and such. They’ve come into the system that, despite all the great work from Jack Goin and his group, had some catching up to do. “They're certainly behind in terms of time. They were one of the last two teams to fully commit to having an analytics presence in the front office in terms of an actual department. I think everybody had one or two guys who were there to do numbers, even the Diamondbacks did. Dave Stewart would apparently say hi to them every once in awhile, and that would be the extent of it.” Yes, that one literally made me laugh out loud over the phone. Law continued, “(The Diamondbacks) have an analytics department. The Twins have an analytic department.” While the Twins did little in the offseason as far as on the field, Falvey talked a lot about building up the infrastructure of the organization. That can be done in all the departments, but especially in the analytics area. That comes with challenges that most fans probably never even thought of. “When I spoke to Matt Klentak of the Phillies while researching the book, he talked about the first year of having an analytics department was just set up, building the architecture to handle things like Statcast data to be able to integrate analytics output with the scouting department’s output. Obviously scouting reports are in a system somewhere. Well, that system has to be able to talk to the stats system. Once he said it, I thought it was obvious, but I’d never taken the time to think that this is months of work, not to mention a lot of money, to set up all the software and hardware required to handle this job. If Derek Falvey walked in and they had nothing in place - the Twins had a couple of people doing stuff, they didn’t have a full-fledged department with a budget committed to this - there probably had to be a point where they had to say, ‘What do we have to buy? We need servers and architecture, physical and software to be able to do this.’ And it takes so much time. If I was in Falvey’s shoes right now, that would be one of the things keeping me up at night. We’re just behind because they started last.” The Twins added a couple of veteran catchers who scored well in terms of defensive value and leadership in Jason Castro and Chris Gimenez. A few other small moves were made, but for the most part, there were not a lot of player personnel changes. So what are Keith Law’s thoughts on the Twins 2017 season? “They’ve still been outscored on the season (fact check: Twins have scored 158 runs, allowed 165 runs). I’m expecting them to finish below .500 on the season. Improving the situation behind the plate was critical. It took a lot of people by surprise that they chose to make that investment. But once you look at the players involved, who they got and who they replaced, and what the actual impact could be of having a good framer, a better game-caller back there. They’re going to ask him (Castro) to work with some young pitchers now and in the future. There’s some pretty clear value there.” But what else should the Twins do as the 2017 season plays out? “I would be fine with them not playing great the rest of the year if that’s because they are playing the right players. Remember two weeks into the season people were writing post mortems for Byron Buxton? I think they gave him one day off at one point, and whatever they did, whatever they said to him, whatever he’s decided to do himself, he’s looked pretty darn good these last three weeks or so. I was going through his game logs, and if you cut off at the day off, and I think he’s had exactly 50 plate appearances since then, that player with plus, elite level defense in center, is a star.” Law continued, “They could have just given up. I think a lot of organizations would have said, ‘Oh no, we rushed him. Let’s get him back to AAA. Maybe we need to bench him.’ They didn’t panic, and that’s a recognition too.” Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, Law sees a plan. “This organization is now building, and it’s going to take some time, but there is a lot of young talent in this system. I’m glad now you’ve got a situation that’s probably from ownership on down that’s willing to be patient too. And if that means you’re going to wait on a Byron Buxton a little bit longer, that’s OK. That’s how you run a team that's trying to build for the long term as opposed to having it both ways. I do think they got a little too much in that mode the last maybe two years or so.” The Twins do have a young team. Six of their regulars are 25 or under. Jose Berrios is now up, and Adalberto Mejia is likely to return this weekend to join Ervin Santana in the rotation. Keith Law finds that very important for a building team and illustrated with an example of the opposite. “The fact that the major league team is young is extremely important. I was doing a bit on a Bay Area radio station yesterday. They pointed out that the A’s are supposed to be a young team, but I look at their roster and they’re really not very young. He was right. They have two regular position players out of nine that are under 30. And Khris Davis is 29 years old. That team is not young. They may be unknown, but they are not young. And, the Twins obviously are saying they’re young, and they are absolutely young ,and they are giving the playing time to young players.” In past years, as the team waited for the Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios group to get to the big leagues and take their lumps, the Twins had a lot of stop gap veteran-type players. They were building toward becoming a young team by being a little bit older. At the same time, it was clear that the plan was to bring those guys up when they were ready. As a reminder, ESPN’s Keith Law will be at Moon Palace Books in Minneapolis at 6:30 p.m. on Thursday night. If you can make it, you'll have a great time. We’ll continue our conversation with Keith Law in one or two more installments. We’ll get his thoughts on the Twins farm system as well as his thoughts and philosophies on what the Twins should do as they think about the #1 pick in June’s draft. Click here to view the article

In the third installment of my conversation with ESPN’s Keith Law, he and I discuss the Twins minor league system. Law’s work in scouting as well as his knowledge of analytics make him a very good resource for this topic. He posts his Top 100 Prospect reports, and as we’ll mention a little later, he came out with this Top 25 Under 25 rankings. Of course, we also want to remind you that Keith Law will be participating in a book reading, baseball discussion and signing at Moon Palace Books in Southeast Minneapolis Thursday night at 6:30. If you are able to go, you will want to. And, if you haven’t already, be sure to pick up your copy of Law’s recently-released book, Smart Baseball. In Part 1, Law discussed his book, why he wrote it, the process, and some of his thoughts on the analytics of the game today. Part 2 with Law was a discussion of Derek Falvey and the 2017 Twins, specifically the youth of the Twins roster. He noted that regardless of the win-loss record at the end of the year, it is most important that the right players are playing, getting innings and at-bats. He specifically talked of the patience shown with Byron Buxton and how we all hope that he takes off soon offensively.This week, Law posted his Top 25 Under 25 at ESPN.com. Two members of the Minnesota Twins organization appear, Byron Buxton (#8) and Miguel Sano (#21). In addition to those two, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios and Eddie Rosario are 25 and under and getting the most reps at their positions (obviously Berrios will only pitch every fifth day). Adalberto Mejia may soon be back. The future is exciting as these guys continue to get playing time. There is reason for optimism in the minor leagues too. Although Nick Gordon is really the only consensus Top 100 prospect in the organization, that is not necessarily an indication of a weak system, especially with that young core in the big leagues. According to Law, “There are plenty of guys in the system that aren’t Top 100, but they may be in the next 50. They are prospects of value. They will be effective major leaguers in some role.” The key for fans is not to put too much stake in whether a guy is a Top 100 player. The Twins have had Top 100 prospects. Each of those “core” players mentioned above has appeared in Top 100 lists. Nick Gordon could be added to that core group. But just because a player isn’t a Top 100 guy doesn’t mean he can’t be a solid major league player in a role. Who knows? Several stars never appeared on Top 100 lists. Brian Dozier never did. Law noted, “A lot of people get hung up on the Top 100/Non-Top 100 distinction. I try to emphasize this every year because I get the same reactions every year. Just because I don’t put a guy in my Top 100 doesn’t mean I don’t think they’re any good players or won’t be any good players. Plenty of great big leaguers have not been on my Top 100. Paul Goldschmidt was on nobody’s top 100 ever, ever. He’s turned out OK.” We talked about a few players in our brief conversation. “Tyler Jay, I really wish they hadn’t moved him to the bullpen, but OK. If that’s going to be his role, it’s going to be his role. Stephen Gonsalves. These guys are going to be big leaguers, as long as they stay healthy, they’ll be good big leaguers.” He continued, “There are guys like Lewis Thorpe somewhere out in the ether. Lewin Diaz, there’s value there. Travis Blankenhorn. I saw him one game in spring training. He’s pretty exciting. I’d like to see a full season of good contact rates and consistent performance, but he could be really good. For a big guy, he is big, that’s a big person, he moved really well at third base. He got off his feet fine, he’s got plenty of arm. It was good. And the contact was impressive.” Of course, Law also acknowledged the elephant in the room as it relates to Twins minor leaguers and their adjustment to the big leagues. Jeff Pickler was brought in as a new Twins coach this year, and part of his responsibility is to work on players' transitions from the minor leagues to the major leagues. “A lot of those guys haven’t gotten over the developmental hump. And that’s probably a whole other conversation, why they haven’t gotten guys over that hump, but there’s talent in the system. I think they’ve drafted OK, they just haven’t been able to convert enough of those guys into the big leaguers commensurate with the expectations of where they were drafted.” Speaking of the draft, the Twins have a great opportunity in another month when they will have the #1 overall pick in the draft. That is what we will discuss in Part 4 of our conversation with ESPN’s Keith Law. If you have a chance, pick up his new book Smart Baseball and meet Law at Moon Palace Books on Thursday night at 6:30 p.m. Click here to view the article

Most of the Twins Daily readership is fully aware of the name Keith Law. He is the senior baseball writer at ESPN and can also often be seen on TV. His ESPN Insider articles often create some great discussion in our forums. On Thursday night in Minneapolis, you have the opportunity to rub elbows with and listen to baseball talk from Keith Law. You can even get a copy of his new book, Smart Baseball, signed.Keith Law will be one of three baseball authors on Thursday night at Moon Palace Books (3260 South Minnehaha Avenue) in Minneapolis. The event begins at 6:30 p.m. Law will be joined by Michael Fallon (author of Dodgerland: Decadent Los Angeles and the 1977-1978 Dodgers), and Peter Schilling Jr. (author of the novel The End of Baseball). I started the conversation with Keith Law by reading the full title of his book. "Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball.” My first question? “Can we just call it Smart Baseball for the rest of this interview?” “You can stick with that.” Uffdah! So why did Law write this book at this time? In his role on ESPN and through social media, he receives a ton of questions, and this book is a great way for him to answer many of them. “Readers had been asking me for years to recommend a book like this. What can I read to understand these new stats, to get up to speed on SABRmetrics?” Law continued, “There was never a book written for the lay audience that explains this stuff in plain English, without a lot of math or charts. I didn’t want to assume anything on the part of the reader. It doesn’t matter if you come into this with limited math or baseball background, you should be able to follow the stuff I’m saying.” The book itself came together quite quickly, however. “For years, the questions just kept coming. In the summer of 2015, I decided to put together a pitch and was very lucky. We put it out there, and Harper Collins bought it almost immediately. I started writing in March of 2016, wrote the last new content before the editing process between the Winter Meetings and Christmas of 2016. Then we put it to bed around Valentine’s Day this year, and two months later, it’s out.” The release of the book has made life pretty interesting for Law. Never a dull moment. “It’s go-go-go-go-go. Stop! Nothing for eight weeks, and then the book comes out and your life is never your own. The two weeks around the actual release was absolute insanity.” In fact, on Tuesday night, he was at an event in Atlanta. He will get to spend one day with his family before heading to Minneapolis for Thursday’s event at Moon Palace Books. So why Minnesota? How did this event come together? Well, based on his reasoning for writing the book, it came down to being asked a question by one of his readers. Law explains, “A reader of mine reached out on Facebook and said, ‘Come to Minnesota and do a signing.’ I said, ‘If you’ve got a book store there that does signings and is interested, I always have reasons to come to Minnesota for work anyway. Have the bookstore contact the publicist.’ “Linus” is the reader’s name. He made this happen. He got on the book store and stayed with them and kept in touch with me. They reached out, got everything arranged, found a date that worked for everybody. Moon Palace did a lot of work too. They got two other authors that will be there as well.” It should be a very fun event for any baseball fan, particularly fans of analytics, history and other baseball topics. The response to Smart Baseball has generally been very positive. “I know so many people in the industry at this point. People have reached out and told me they would recommend it to fans.” He noted specifically that Susan Slusser, beat writer for the Oakland A’s reached out and told him and said now she has a book to suggest for people who ask the question, ‘Are there any books you would recommend to help explain these statistics? Law noted, “That’s what we’re trying to do with the book.” While Law is well versed in the analytic part of the game, he also has a lot of experience as a scout and bringing the two together is an important piece for any front office. “I try to (blend stats and scouting). I don’t think you can discuss players without doing both. I think the blend varies by level.” Statistical analysis in baseball is certainly not new. Going back to the first box scores in the late 1800s, statistics have been a big deal in the game. Bill James is often considered the pioneer of advanced statistics. Moneyball, the book, is less than 15 years old. Law said that Moneyball played a role, but there were certainly other reasons that analytics took off in baseball, and probably one was more important than the rest. “Everyone says the publication of Moneyball was the big shift. That definitely raised the awareness in other front offices and among ownership groups. But I think just as much of a spur was with the Red Sox. When Theo Epstein took over, he was extremely public in his embrace of analytics. And then they won two World Series in the next five seasons. That has an effect. To have an old, old franchise, with plenty of money say we’re going to use this stuff and then go out and execute and build a world-class baseball operations department.” Law continued, speaking to the effect it had on other organizations. “I think that was just as much of a spur to every other team, that we have to at least consider this. This has to be part of our thought process. It took a long time for all 30 teams to get there, as you well know. But we’re there now. Everyone is doing it. Everyone at least has some sort of in-house analytics department. They're collecting data, the torrent of StatCast data right now. I don’t know that we know what that all means.” The industry had shifted. There has been a lot of change in the game and how it is analyzed and evaluated. But what’s next? What will the next big area of analytics be? According to Law, “The next advances are more likely to come out of Statcast information. Much of it may not be public, at least not at first. But when I spoke to executives for the last two chapters of my book - one is on Statcast specifically and the last is on what comes next - it was really about applications or insights from looking at Statcast data.” Law provided an example of what could come analytically, “Can we find that pitchers are fatigued in the data before they are actually hurt. His spin rate. His velocity is dropping. But he’s not hurt. He’s not reporting any soreness. But we can see his stuff is objectively not the same. That’s information that we simply never had before. I throw it out there in the book as a hypothetical, but if I could tell you that the Twins could save one DL stint for a starter every year using that data, what’s that worth to them? It’s probably worth seven figures a year.” So at this stage, we all realize that pitcher “wins” tend to be a pretty meaningless, overrated statistic. We understand better that batting average is not as important as on-base percentage. So when I asked Keith Law for an example of a stat that is ruining the game, he quickly responded. “‘Saves’ is the one that’s doing the most damage to the game. My guess is you know why. You could probably make the argument without reading the chapter in the book, and I’m guessing a lot of your readers too. If you watched the postseason last year, we know that too. Zach Britton not getting into the wild card game. You saw Andrew MIller being used very differently. People acted like Terry Francona’s usage of Andrew Miller was like Einstein discovering the theories of relativity. Teams used to do this all the time. I’m not taking any credit from Francona, but this is old and new. It’s new because it’s novel, but it’s not like no manager has ever done this before. Managers used to do this all the time before the save stat. So, that’s the one I always give when people ask me for a stat that’s really ruining the game of baseball. That’s the best general example.” There is another grouping of stats that Law mentions, “There’s a number of times in the book where I talk about the run expectancy table. In trying to allow readers, again without doing a lot of math, to get readers to understand the idea of tradeoffs. This idea that you’re going to try to steal second, but if you fail, there is a real cost here. So think about "What do I gain if I succeed?" What do I lose if I fail? I talk about bunts in that context. I talk about intentional walks in that context. That’s one where, it’s not so much a single stat that’s ruining the game but it’s an older way of thinking. The way that just thinks, "Well, I got the runner to second, that’s a good thing, right?" No… It’s not a good thing, but it took data to actually prove that to people.” And those examples let us know why this can be such an important book for baseball fans. We all have those friends that will say something like so-and-so wasn’t very good last year because he only hit .245, not noting that the same hitter got on base 35% of the time and hit 25 homers while playing Gold Glove caliber defense at an important defensive position. “We’re still fighting an uphill battle with the public. I think teams know this stuff if not all of it, but there’s still a big portion of baseball fandom that isn’t used to thinking about the game this way and I want to reach those people and reach them on their terms and in their language, not ours.” And now we have a book to help us with our arguments and increase the intelligent conversations with those friends. Smart Baseball is available in most bookstores and on the online bookstores. Pick up your copy(ies) today. ------------------------------------------------------------------- But for those of you near Minneapolis, consider joining Keith Law and several other Twins and baseball fans at 6:30 p.m. at Moon Palace Books in Minneapolis. You’ll be able to listen to some interesting baseball discussion, pick up some new reading material and ask Keith Law to sign your copy of Smart Baseball. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Over the next few days, I'll share more from my conversation with Keith Law on topics such as the new Twins regime, the Twins farm system and the upcoming MLB draft. Be sure to check back often. Click here to view the article

The 2016 season mercifully came to an end, and Twins fans hope to someday be rewarded for suffering through the worst season in team history. Because in baseball, sometimes in the long run it pays to lose. Thanks to their impressive ability to rack up losses, the Twins "won" the first overall pick in the 2017 Draft. Yes, it will be several years before we'll see the team's top pick play at Target Field, but that doesn't change how exciting it is that the team will have the opportunity to add a franchise-changing talent to the organization.Who the Twins may take with the first selection will probably be speculated about right down to draft day. Last week, Jeremy Nygaard did a great job of outlining a handful of players the Twins are likely looking into as potential No. 1 picks. Draft day (June 12, 2017) is still a long way away, but it appears at the moment that Hunter Greene has broken out as the guy with the highest ceiling in the class. The question is should that be what the Twins target, or should they look for more certainty and lower risk? If the Twins are searching for a player to make a more immediate impact, they'll likely pass on Greene, who will be just 17-years-old on draft day. A standout pitcher and shortstop for Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, Calif, Greene can flirt with 100 mph on the mound and has a home run derby crown to his credit, hitting moonshots out of Wrigley Field at the Perfect Game All-American Classic. And he appears to be a bright kid, as he was recently boasting about getting a 31 (out of a possible 36) on the ACT. For more on Greene's backstory, look no further than Hudson Belisky of Baseball America's excellent and thorough profile. Time will tell if he can maintain the 1-1 buzz, but below are quotes from some credible sources with first-hand knowledge of Greene. Each of these was pulled from articles with more information on Greene and some have reports on other players in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick, so I would encourage you to check them out. Also, with Greene being such a high-profile player already, there's tons of video of him on YouTube to drool over. "Greene was 96-98 mph in his inning of work with a super loose arm and little effort. His delivery is too quick, so while he stays online, and threw strikes on Saturday, to remain a starter he's probably going to have to slow it down and get a consistent rhythm. But this kind of arm -- present plus velocity without substantial effort -- is rare." -Keith Law, ESPN.com, on Greene's performance at the Under Armor All-American Game [link] "Likely at the top of most boards right now. A shortstop and a pitcher, there is some debate over where he has more potential. Keep in mind a high school right-handed pitcher has never been taken No. 1 overall." -Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com [link] "His fastball is absolutely electric, sitting in the mid-90s and touching as high as 98 with good extension and movement that plays in the zone. I think Greene’s heater would be effective in the big leagues right now and, though the rest of his repertoire is middling, his body and athleticism make the entire package worthy of top-of-the-draft consideration." -Eric Longenhagen, Fangraphs [link] "Greene’s delivery starts with an athletic, well-coordinated leg lift. He folds his front leg and brings his knee to the height of his sternum, and then his hands break just as his leg comes down and his lower half begins to generate torque. He has an easy arm action, with a slight wrap in the back and explosive arm speed as he fires through his three-quarters slot. Greene lands online and spins off his front toes as his back side comes through. He gets his torso extended over his front side, giving him additional extension towards home plate. His arm decelerates well, finishing across his body without recoil or violence, and his head stays still throughout the process." -Hudson Belinksy, Baseball America [link] "Greene has an athletic-yet-sturdy build at 6-foot-3, 195 pounds to go along with his emerging three-pitch repertoire and clean delivery. He ran his fastball up to 98 mph more than once this summer, settling into the mid-90s in short stints. His low-80s slider isn’t consistent yet but flashes plus potential, and he’s also shown an advanced change-up." -Jesse Burkhart, Today's Knuckleball [link] "He has shown two potential plus pitches and another bonus is that he will still be 17 on draft day. On upside alone, there is not a better player in this class." -Jeff Ellis, Scout.com [link] "He sat at 94-96 mph with his fastball with considerable movement and touched 98. His slider was inconsistent at best during the Under Armour All-American Game the previous month, but it flashed plus here, and he was able to locate the pitch for strikes for the most part. He also showed a change in the mid-80s that he buried down with good arm speed, and although he didn't have great feel for it, you can see the makings of a quality third offering." -Christopher Crawford, ESPN.com, on Greene's performance at the Area Code Games [link] Of course, Greene's status as a potential top pick isn't written in stone. It's more like written in sand at high tide. There's another dozen or so players who have the opportunity between now and the draft to establish themselves as the top pick between now and June. Whoever ends up with that honor will hopefully one day help Twins fans make this 103-loss season worth all the suffering. Click here to view the article

This article was written by Jesse Lund. One of the fascinating aspects of ranking farm systems of every organization across baseball is that, to some level, it's kind of subjective. There's a general understanding on the level of Cubs-good-Padres-bad, but what's the real difference between each team? How do you mark the difference in system quality between, for example, Minnesota and Cleveland? Part of the challenge in finding that differentiation is that there is no single consensus on how prospects themselves are evaluated. Jonathan Mayo and Keith Law and John Sickels and Chris Mitchell will all rate prospects differently, which impacts how the system as a whole is ranked. The best part is that all of the experts understand that prospect ranking isn't an exact science, which is why we see a vast majority of any team's top prospects weigh heavily towards the 45 to 50 range on the 20-80 scale regardless of who's doing the ranking. There's a real desire to separate those few gems at the top of the pile.Have a look at the distribution of the ratings of every club's Top 30 prospects, according to current lists at MLB.com. For the uninitiated, keep in mind that 50 is considered average. Every step down is a step below average, and every step up is another mark above. If that chart's results look heavily skewed, it's because they are. Out of 900 prospects, 590 of them (66%) were rated as a 45. 184 (20%) were given a rating of 50. Only three out of every 20 prospects end up on either side of that range. Separating the good and elite (or otherwise) players is not only an exercise in minimizing risk in evaluation - can you imagine a world where there were 50 prospects rated as a 70, for example - but because the middle is so overwhelming it impacts those subtle separations between organizations as a whole. Moving on to how this can help us to determine the individual strengths of any organization's minor league system, it's pretty clear that we're running into a couple of issues: We're only looking at a club's top 30 prospects, those ratings are only sourced from one outlet, and there's no standardized way to, for example, award or penalize a club based on how their top 30 prospects were graded. Whatever we end up with here, there's no result that's going to resolutely identify exactly how well or poorly an organization's farm system is doing at any given time on an objective scale. What a study like this can do, however, is give us an idea of the differences are between a grouping of teams. Even though we're looking at the results of subjective data, it can be useful in helping us understand just how an organization that rates as a top five system differs from one that's middle of the pack. For anyone who's curious: no, the Twins' Top 30 does not include Byron Buxton. He's officially expired his rookie status, thereby eliminating his status as a prospect, so everybody slides up a spot and our friend Lewin Diaz joins the list at number 30. I've kept it simple. Each prospect is awarded a number of points equal to his overall rating. Corey Seager is worth 70. Exactly ten - yes, ten - Angels' prospects were awarded 40. Totals are divided by 30 to get an average, which is a nice reference to show how teams rank on a scale that no doubt moves by increments every few weeks. There are other ways to award value - 7 points for a 70, 5 points for a 60, -2 for a 40, whatever you like - but I wanted to stay away from arbitrary values. The strongest system here belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose 1,475 total points give them an average of 49.2. The weakest system is, of course, the Angels, whose 1,315 points give them an average of 43.8. What we find is that the difference between a top five team, like the Rockies, and a club in the middle, like the Yankees, is actually fairly significant. They differ by just 35 points overall, but that's asking the Bombers' system to slide seven of their top 30 prospects up a level. Maybe it's tempting to think it would be easy to slide seven of those 45-rated players up to a 50, but that would give the Yankees 15 prospects with a 50 grade. It's not realistic considering the distribution of players with that mark across the league. Instead, the Yankees would have to turn one 45-rated player into a 65 and another into a 60. Considering there are only 20 of 900 prospects (2.2%) right now who are rated 60 or higher, magically finding two of them to drop into a system is highly unlikely. Turning three 45s into 55s might sound more doable, but that would be asking the Yankees to double the number of prospects already at that level. When a front office is challenged to turn around a system, I think looking at information like this helps us to see how big of a task that can be. There are a couple of next steps available that I'll try to take up in coming weeks. I'd like to incorporate more information from other systems, and I'd also be curious to look at the age and level of prospects to give a larger cross-section. Click here to view the article

'Tis the season, the season for prospect lists. On Thursday, ESPN’s Keith Law released his Top 100 prospect list. Two weeks ago, MLB.com hosted a Top 100 prospect show on the MLB Network. Baseball America will soon be promoting their Top 100 prospect rankings. National sites and local team bloggers will be updating their team-specific Top 10, 20, 30 or 40 lists. In the coming weeks, Twins Daily will be posting our Top 20 Twins Prospects series. So many rankings. What do we do with all of that information?In the 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, Jeremy Nygaard, Cody Christie and I did a ton of research on over 150 Twins minor leaguers. Upon completing that, we each posted our own individual Top 30 Twins Prospect lists. For all four of us we started the rankings with Byron Buxton, JO Berrios Max Kepler and Nick Gordon. After those four, the three prospect lists branched off in various directions. We all read information. Jeremy researched by talking to many people who know the players well. Cody spent hours upon hours digging into the statistics from various sites and locations, considering improvements or decreases from the previous year. I talked to a lot of people inside the organization, outside the organization and in the industry. We all could read each other’s paragraphs and information and yet, we all interpreted it a little bit different. We all have our “favorites,” guys that we like as prospects a little more (or less) than the other two. Many of you have read through the pages of this year’s (and previous years') prospect handbooks. Steve Buhr and Ted Schwerzlerposted their Top 15 Twins prospect rankings in the last month. Thrylos posted his Top 40 and has different criteria on what he considers a “prospect” than the others. Aaron Gleeman started his Top 40 Twins prospect series this week. When Mike Berardino researched and wrote the Twins top prospect reports and rankings for Baseball America, I guarantee he made a ton of phones calls. Keith Law has a background in a front office, in scouting and now in TV for ESPN. He talked to, likely, some of the same people that some of us “locals” talked to, but he also certainly talked to many others. John Sickelshas contacts all over baseball. My personal opinion is that it is important to see these players in practice and in game action, if possible. I value the week that I’ve been able to spend in Ft. Myers, trying to keep up with everything that is going on on the minor league fields. I think it’s important to see pitchers work in the bullpen, during PFPs, and interacting with catchers. It’s good to see hitters during batting practice, but also hitting against live pitching. It’s good to see them run the bases and in the outfield. It’s good to see the work ethic and range or the infielders. It’s also good to see the people, their athletic level, and know that they’re much more than just box scores and stat lines. All read, research, watch video and read stats to varying degrees. And there rarely, if ever, is any sort of consensus. That’s why Keith Law can rank Kohl Stewart as the 53rd overall prospect in baseball this spring, fourth among Twins prospects, and I rank him as the 11th Twins prospect in my list. How does that happen? Well, some focus on Stewart’s lack of strikeouts in his two pro seasons. Others choose to focus on his strong arm, his athleticism, his strength, his ground ball rate and his pitches. Both would agree that how he winds up will depend on how he develops over the next three or four years. It’s why I’m the only one who has Aaron Slegers in his top 30 (28th). I look at his height, his arm angle, his tremendous control, a solid three-pitch mix, and I think he can be a back-of-the-rotation starter. He may not get much taller, but he will likely continue to grow, and a 92 mph fastball could become a 94 mph fastball. We shall see. Maybe the best example is Jermaine Palacios. While I ranked him as my #21 Twins prospect, Jeremy ranked him #10, and Palacios didn’t make Cody’s Top 30. Not many players come from Venezuela as an 18-year-old and completely dominate pitchers in both the GCL and the Appy League. Others will note the lack of walks. Some will notice that he had a ton of errors at shortstop and wonder if he can stay at that position. Who is right? Right now there is no way at all to answer that question. In theory, we may have that answer in about five years. In reality, we may have to wait 20 or more years to really know who was right. In fact, I guarantee that if we were all allowed access into the Twins organizational meetings following the season, we would hear differing opinions on each and every player. I guarantee there isn’t a unanimous opinion on any big leaguer or minor leaguer or free agent. Just like in every business, or in every family. If I’ve learned one thing in my 12-13 years of watching, researching and writing about the Twins minor league system and prospect rankings in general, there is just one absolute. The lone absolute is that there are no absolutes. There are exceptions to every rule. There are non-prospects who become stars, and there are guys like Brandon Wood. In 2006 and 2007, Wood was a clear Top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He was putting up huge home run totals in the minor leagues. He was touted as a future 40 home run per year hitter. In parts of five big league seasons he hit a combined 18 home runs. Yes, the same number that Miguel Sano hit in three months with the Twins last year. Sometimes #1 overall prospects pan out. Joe Mauer certainly put together a career worthy of that lofty perch. Delmon Young was also the #1 overall prospect at one time. Jon Rauch was the #4 prospect in baseball in 2001. Baseball America’s 1995 Top 5 prospects were Alex Rodriguez, Ruben Rivera, Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter, and Brian Hunter. Three out of five is pretty good, but it is a reminder that they just don’t all make it. So, what do these prospects rankings do for us? Well, it allows us to dream. The Twins have had Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Buxton has been a consensus top two prospect the last three years. Sano was a top ten prospect a couple of times and places. JO Berrios has moved up the prospect ranking ladder consistently since signing. Max Kepler’s tools finally kicked in. Jorge Polanco may not have a clear path to the Twins, but he can certainly hit, even if we don’t know where he’ll play. Top six picks like Buxton, Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon and Tyler Jay provide plenty of upside. Consider also the relief pitching prospects that the Twins could have pitching for them within the next two years. I’ve said this before, but it remains true. I look at the Twins minor league system, and I see arguably 30-40 players who could spend time in the big leagues. When you consider that there are 160-200 minor league players in the Twins system at any time, that may not sound like a lot, but it’s more than you’ll see in most organizations. Considering where the Twins minor league system was six to eight years ago, it’s even more impressive. Let’s say there are 40 players that the Twins or fans think could get to the big leagues. The reality is that probably one and possibly two will become perennial All-Stars. Maybe five or six will become big league regulars, in the lineup most days or a starting pitcher. Another five or six will likely spend a few years in the big leagues as a role player, a utility player or sixth or seventh inning guy. Another seven or eight will get a proverbial cup of coffee. And that leaves around fifth to twenty that may not even get to the big leagues. Also, there are going to be five or six guys that will play at least a few games in the big league that right now today, we may not think will not play in the big leagues. That’s why having a strong, deep minor league system is so important. It is incredibly hard to get to the big leagues. It takes a ton of work and talent, and sometimes it takes the right situation and a little luck. Consider just how good a baseball player someone has to be to get as much as a cup of coffee in the big leagues. I mean frankly, imagine how good a ballplayer needs to be to get to Low A. That’s the reason that I write the Twins Prospect Handbook. All of the players deserve to be recognized for what they do. It’s important. It’s deserved. You may disagree with Kohl Stewart’s ranking by Keith Law. You may be right. Or you may not. Who will have a better career Stewart, or fellow 2013 pick Stephen Gonsalves? Will Tyler Jay be able to transition to starting, or will he wind up being a dominant reliever? Will Alex Meyer pitch like he did in 2014 when he was one of the best AAA pitchers in baseball, or will he find a way to be successful in the bullpen? Can Adam Brett Walker be a productive big league power hitter, or will the contact rate make that impossible? Will Byron Buxton be a successful big leaguer because of his defense and speed and arm, or will he be able to hit well and become an elite, MVP-caliber player? Can JO Berrios become a top of the rotation starter, or will he be more of a mid-rotation type? In 2015, Max Kepler turned his tools into skills in AA, but can he take that next step and become a five-tool talent in the big leagues? Can he repeat his AA success in the big leagues? Can Nick Burdi and JT Chargois harness their control and command and become a dominant eighth and ninth inning combination for the Twins in the not-too-distant future? Can Taylor Rogers quickly make the transition from starter to a guy the Twins can rely on to get left-handed hitters out in the seventh and eighth innings? How quickly can lefties Mason Melotakis and Corey Williams get to the big leagues after Tommy John surgery? How will high-end pitching prospects like Lewis Thorpe and Fernando Romero return in 2016 from their Tommy John surgeries and return to game action? The questions can go on and on when they refer to prospects. There are probably a half-dozen or more questions per minor leaguer. And for each there is no ‘Wrong’ answer, and there is only one ‘Right’ answer. That answer is “Maybe.” But the best thing about prospect rankings for fans is the discussions that they encourage. They let us dream of what could be for Twins fans. They get us excited about the upcoming season and about what will happen with the Twins and throughout the minor leagues. Which prospects will take the next step? Which prospects will fall from prospect status? Which prospects will jump up to the big leagues? So let’s look at the lists. Let’s see how people rank the Twins prospects, or the Twins farm system. Let’s discuss it. Are they right? Are we right? Maybe. Click here to view the article

Baseball hasn't always been the paragon of parity, with teams like the Cardinals, Braves, and Yankees constructing dynasties that spanned for the better part of a decade, but this year is unlike any we've seen in recent history. No American League team is more than 10 games out of a playoff spot with two full months of the season left. It's parity to the utmost: Every team is in it if they want to be. From a general baseball standpoint, this is phenomenal. Even as the Royals run away with the AL Central, the other four playoff spots are all still very much up for grabs, and it virtually guarantees meaningful baseball will be played well into September.On a team-by-team level, this is maddening; if everyone is a contender, then no one is. Teams that have struggled to find .500 are, at least in theory, just one or two pieces away from making the crucial leap. The Royals proved last year that once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen, leaving fans of fringe-contending teams to shout "Don't just stand there, DO SOMETHING!" Thanks to the object lesson that is the New York Mets, we can see just how flawed that logic is. They traded High-A starter Casey Meisner for A's reliever -- and free-agent-to-be -- Tyler Clippard. Cue Keith Law's response: Download attachment: Law_Keith_Mets_Tweet.jpg Charitably, the Mets made themselves better when they acquired Clippard and they did so by trading talent from a position of strength, and at least they struck while the iron is hot, right? Flags Fly Forever! Law's point, and he's probably correct here, is that not all action -- even that which makes you better in the short run -- is good. The Mets' bullpen isn't great, but it's also not their most glaring weakness. It sits at or slightly above-average in most categories (K/9, BB/9, FIP, and WAR most notably), and while having a shutdown bullpen makes the playoffs less stressful, the Mets' decidedly subpar offense still may keep them from ever getting there. If the Mets determined that Meisner had more value as a trade piece than he did in their organization, which seems objectively true, they still misused him and received too little value in return. Having a large collection of quarters doesn't make trading five of them for a dollar a good idea. I'll leave the actual evaluation of Meisner to the professionals. He's a 20-year-old in High-A, meaning he still has the full range of possibilities ahead of him: He could be a cautionary tale for years to come when he becomes a star (like Wilson Ramos or Carlos Santana) or a complete non-factor (ala Deolis Guerra or literally dozens of other pitchers league-wide). Twins fans should take the Mets' move as a cautionary tale, since there's a parallel between someone like Meisner and someone like Max Kepler, who is showing good production in the low minors, but who may be blocked on his path to the majors. Or, more pointedly, who may have more value outside the Twins organization than in it. He could be used to bring talent into a squad that sorely needs it, but unless they can get fair-market value or above for him, the Twins are better off keeping Kepler and waiting for a calmer trading period to emerge. Fortune favors the bold, especially with so many teams in the mix for a fixed number of playoff spots, but for a team at the very beginning of its contending window like the Twins are, sometimes . Click here to view the article