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  1. We are less than two weeks away from the 2022 Major League Baseball regular season. The free agent frenzy was every bit the excitement we had hoped for following the lockout and teams are largely complete at this point. The American League Central Division had just one Postseason participant, but the hope would be for two with the field expanding to 12 teams. The Chicago White Sox return as the division winners and will look to carry that crown for a second season. While there’s no juggernaut here, it should be expected that there’s no cellar dweller either. Here’s how I see the division shaking out with PECOTA projections in parentheses. Chicago White Sox 89-73 (91-71) Chicago really didn’t do a whole lot this winter, but they also really didn’t need to. Having Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez for a full season will represent the greatest benefit they could gain from the offseason. Kendall Graveman makes an already good bullpen better, and Joe Kelly only enhances that. They should still have a very strong lineup, and the hope would be continued dominance from the rotation. There’s no doubt that they are the favorites here. Minnesota Twins 85-77 (86-76) If there’s a team that could go up or down more than almost any other in baseball it could be Minnesota. Byron Buxton is a superstar, and now he has a partner in Carlos Correa. How much resurgence could Gary Sanchez or Gio Ursehla find in their new home? Sonny Gray is a dependable arm, but from there it’s questionable veterans and untested rookies. If things go bad, it will likely be because the arms simply weren’t enough. This could be a very good team, a mediocre team, or a relatively bad team virtually all tied to what happens on the mound. Detroit Tigers 77-85 (67-95) Javier Baez’s deal with Detroit surprised many because of the assumed tie between Carlos Correa and A.J. Hinch. Baez has plenty of flaws but some of them are a bit overstated. He gives a winning presence to a team on the cusp. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson should be in the lineup soon, and Akil Baddoo turned out to be a bad man last year. I don’t know how well they’ll pitch, but acquiring Eduardo Rodriguez was a smart move. Kansas City Royals 75-87 (70-92) Prospects are the name of the game for the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a superstar as does both M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto. Salvador Perez put up insane numbers a season ago and will look to replicate that performance. Pitching is questionable here too, and I’m not sure Zack Greinke has much left in the tank. The bullpen is uninspiring, and there’s plenty of lineup holes. They’re getting better, but not there yet. Cleveland Guardians 73-89 (77-85) You don’t have to look much further than the newly named Guardians to find the Central’s most rudderless team. The farm system isn’t elite, but the Major League roster is also barren. Jose Ramirez is amazing, and a healthy Shane Bieber is lights out, but beyond that there’s very little to like here. A lot of post-hype prospects and guys that have ceilings they never got close to touching reside on this roster. Alongside their lack of spending this offseason, deciding not to blow it up was a weird path forward. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Forget the fact that 2020 was an uncharacteristically weird and difficult year in and of itself, trying to deduce anything from the shortened baseball season proved impossible. Back to a more traditional slate in 2021, we have some storylines to actually dive into. Rather than focusing just on the Minnesota Twins, I think it’s worthwhile to take a look at the division as a whole. The AL Central was projected to be among baseball’s worst, and while that may be true, there are some signs of hope across the board. New contenders emerged, and talents have risen. Here’s a few of my takeaways from each of the competitors within the division. Chicago White Sox Expected to compete with the Twins for an AL Central division title, Chicago ran away with it. Up by more than double-digits for most of the second half, this season was not the Southsiders playing little brother to the nationally branded Cubs anymore. This wasn’t much of a race from about May on, and that was definitely to Chicago’s credit. Tony La Russa’s club dealt with more injuries than anyone in the division, and despite depth seeming like a question, they weather and excelled through the storm. Luis Robert looks like an absolute problem, and Eloy Jimenez is going to hit a boatload of homers. Lance Lynn has been a Cy Young candidate all year, and Liam Hendriks has been every bit the stud closer he was signed to be. Sustainability appears to be there for the White Sox, and if anyone wants to knock them off their throne they’ll need to rise up in a big way. If there’s opportunity for Chicago it may come down to a lack of challenge. They’ve played .500 baseball since mid-season, but they haven’t had anyone provide a test within the division. Depending on how the Postseason goes for them, tenacity could be ratcheted up in 2022 and a 100-win campaign may be their next goal to surpass. Cleveland The most notable thing that Cleveland has done this year may be changing their name to the Guardians. This was a team expected to take a step backwards and it has. Built largely around stud pitching, they’ve dealt with substantial injuries to the rotation. Once baseball cracked down on sticky substances, few organizations found it more detrimental than these guys did. Star reliever James Karinchak is a mess, and there’s more uncertainty about a future direction for this club than ever. Jose Ramirez remains a stud, but it still was probably a down year by his standards. Team options remain each of the next two seasons, and while it will be picked up, there’s little reason for a talent like this to be a part of a rebuild. Cleveland doesn’t have much around the diamond, has remained lost in the outfield, and they could be looking at Terry Francona deciding his health won’t allow for a return. Consistently one of the division’s best, this is definitely looking like an opportunity for a changing of the guard. They haven’t been horrible by any means, but the lack of anything noteworthy happening for Cleveland this season is about as descriptive as one could imagine. Detroit Tigers Arguably one of the best surprises this season has been the emergence of the Detroit Tigers. Under new management in the form of A.J. Hinch, this isn’t a Ron Gardenhire club looking to get through to the next wave anymore. Detroit has been the best team in the division since about the halfway point, and that’s scary for anyone uncertain if they’re figuring it out. Miguel Cabrera reached his milestone, but this team is all about the youth movement. Matt Manning made his debut, Casey Mize has looked the part at times, and Akil Baddoo has looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft selections in history. Add in that top prospects like Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene are both at Triple-A and the talent pool gets even scarier for this club. I’m not sure we’ve seen enough to suggest Detroit is making the leap in 2022 yet, but there’s no doubt the arrow for the organization is pointing straight up. Hinch is a good man to lead them. The front office needs to be a bit more forward thinking and show aggressiveness, but the Tigers don’t reside in the doldrums anymore. Kansas City Royals I picked the Royals to unseat Cleveland for third in the division this year, and while they’re six games behind, the narrative is of a fast start and then quickly gassing out. Kansas City made some interesting moves this offseason in hopes of raising their water level. Most of them had safe floors and low ceilings. With peaks coming early for a lot of that talent, they sputtered quickly and never really leveled off. The Royals are in a weird spot with many of their regulars. Salvador Perez put up a career year but will be 32-years-old despite now being signed through 2025. Carlos Santana has not been good, and Andrew Benintendi needed a late season surge to save his slash line. The rotation has seen some great exposure for youth like Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and even Jackson Kowar. Is it enough to jumpstart the turnaround in 2022 though? Helping the Royals out will be a pair of infielders ready to rake. Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Prato both appear big-league ready, and they should be able to step in quickly next season. This is a team with plenty of questions, not a ton of certain answers, but some very intriguing options. Minnesota Twins If there was a group that failed in the division there’s no where else to turn than the Twins. Expected to defend two straight division titles, they never made things interesting with Chicago. Pitching started out a disaster and then shifted between which group was to blame. The offense took a while to get going, and then major injury issues set them back again. Three of the best developments this season came in the form of health proving performance for Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, and Byron Buxton. The two former talents had down years with small sample sizes while playing through injury last season. Buxton only further substantiated that he’s among the best in the game when available. Both of the first two will be back, and while the third is under contract, he’s a year from free agency and the organization much decide which way to go. Baldelli will be working through adversity for the first offseason of his career. Derek Falvey must retool the roster with talent that can be paired with youth in order to take a step forward. It was also made abundantly clear that too much depth is never a problem you’ll have. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. As teams begin to kick off a more traditional Spring Training with the goal of completing it entirely this season, we’re now looking forward to a full 162-game slate. The Twins return as repeat AL Central Division champions, and they’ll look for a three-peat in 2021. Shuffling has taken place throughout the Central with Chicago having had a strong offseason, Cleveland selling off, and Kansas City quietly making some noise. Last year I put this projection piece out in February, and then needed to come up with an amended version at the end of July. Let’s hope for good health and as much baseball as we can handle this time around. Here’s how I have the AL Central going, along with PECOTA projections in parenthesis. Minnesota Twins 97-63 (90-72) It’s more than fair to suggest the Twins could’ve taken further steps forward this offseason, however they had the least to improve upon. Piece did depart, but none of them were substantial contributors and the addition of Andrelton Simmons should make a massive impact defensively. This team is going to go as far as a healthy Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton allow them too. It’d be great if Miguel Sano were the Nelson Cruz aging insurance along the way. Expect additions at the deadline, and a stable of prospects are near ready to contribute. Chicago White Sox 90-72 (82-80) There’s no denying that the South Siders have closed even more of the gap. That said, I still think this club is in for some regression given the unpredictability of youth. They broke out in a big way during a shortened 2020 campaign that afforded them the luxury of small sample sizes. Thinking back to the 2018 Twins, a similar swoon could happen here. The talent level is too great to drift too far, but they should be considered a runner-up. Postseason expectations are a must however, and they shouldn’t have much problem achieving that. Kansas City Royals 78-84 (72-90) While the Royals are not yet there, and they are waiting on some offensive prospects to step up, they did a lot of nice things this winter. The Mike Minor signing was an underrated one, and Carlos Santana should provide a steadying veteran presence for them. I like Brady Singer and Kris Bubic in the rotation and think there’s a different trajectory here than in years past. This isn’t a Kansas City club yet ready to compete, but they’re substantially better than the bottom feeding Tigers and should have more firepower than Cleveland. Cleveland Indians 77-85 (85-77) Rather than load up for one last go with a strong rotation and a final year of Francisco Lindor, Cleveland decided to punt on 2021. The rotation is top heavy with Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale, but beyond that there’s more question marks with upside than anything. They’ve done a good job developing arms, and I’d expect that to continue, but it still needs to be proven. There isn’t much talent in the field or at the plate, and if they aren’t going to compete it makes little sense to hang onto Jose Ramirez. Assuming he’s dangled at the deadline, they could accelerate the rebuild they’re now destined for. Detroit Tigers 65-97 (66-96) A.J. Hinch has a tall task in front of him as this isn’t a club rich with talent akin to the Astros teams he’s used to having led. That said, there’s going to be a handful of prospects that filter into Comerica this year, and Detroit has one of the best systems in the game. I’d expect some of those kids to take their lumps, and even if they do produce, there’s just not enough on the roster to raise the overall water level. That said, this club isn’t far from turning the corner and adding pieces with a focus on competing once again. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Looking to stretch the winning streak to seven games, the Minnesota Twins came up just short in their final contest with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now onto another cellar dweller in the Kansas City Royals, Rocco Baldelli’s club faces another series with ample opportunity to bolster the number in the win column.Last Night's Game Recap PIT 6, MIN 5: Taylor Rogers Blows Save, Win Streak Snapped Today: Minnesota @ Kansas City Royals, 7:05 PM CT Betting Lines: MIN -155, O/U 9.5 Twins Starter: Devin Smeltzer, LHP 1-0 11.57 ERA Tonight is Smeltzer’s first start of the year as he’s worked as a bulk reliever for his two outings on the season. In six starts a year ago he posted a 4.11 ERA and allowed a .704 OPS to opposing hitters. While his ERA registered at just 3.44 when working in relief for the 2019 Twins, opponents OPS was nearly 200 points higher at .898. Smelter may be fond of Kansas City as they provided his first Major League win. When facing them at Target Field on August 4, 2019 he went 6.0 IP allowing no runs on just two hits while fanning four and walking one. Download attachment: Smeltzer.PNG The prototypical profile of a soft-tossing lefty, Smeltzer’s 89 mph average on the fastball won’t blow anyone away. His primary second pitch is the curveball, and it’s there that he looks for punchouts. He’s been a high strikeout guy in the minors and generated 7.0 K/9 last year as a rookie. The homer is his bugaboo and if he can avoid some of the Royals boppers tonight should go well for him. Royals Starter: Jakob Junis, RHP 0-0 4.15 ERA Junis has made just one appearance this season and it was a start against the Chicago White Sox. He lasted just 4.1 IP during that one and ceded two runs on six hits. Now in his fourth Major League season, the book has all but been written on Junis given the consistency he’s shown year over year. Download attachment: Junis.PNG You can pencil him in for an ERA in the mid fours, and it’ll be complimented by a modest walk and strikeout rate. He’s been an innings eater of sorts throwing over 170 IP in each of the past two years for Kansas City. Where the biggest opportunity for opponents against Junis comes is launching the longball. He’s never allowed less than 1.4 HR/9 and was up to 1.6 HR/9 each of the past two seasons. Lefties had substantially more success against him last year, though the power numbers came from both sides of the plate. Kansas City knocked the Chicago Cubs around for 13 runs last night so it will be interesting to see if the bats have any runs support left in them. Lineup News & Notes - The St. Louis Cardinals return to the field today following their COVID-19 outbreak. It’s the first time they’ll have played a game since July 29, and the first time all 30 teams are active and healthy since the Marlins outbreak on July 26. UPDATE: More positives for the Cardinals, so no full slate tonight and St. Louis has a postponed game today. - Shohei Ohtani returned to the lineup for the Los Angeles Angels following the MRI revealing a forearm injury that will keep him off the mound for the rest of 2020. He homered. - Today, Mike Trout turns 29. At 74.0 fWAR he’s already posted the 46th highest mark in MLB history. What comes from here is anyone’s guess but it’s clear we’re watching one of the best ever. Around the AL Central CLE 13, CIN 0 KCR 13, CHC 2 MIL 8, CHW 3 1. MIN 10-3 (+29 run differential) 2. CLE 8-6 (+17) 3. CWS 7-6 (+2) 4. DET 5-5 (-11) 5. KCR 4-10 (-11) Click here to view the article
  5. Last Night's Game Recap PIT 6, MIN 5: Taylor Rogers Blows Save, Win Streak Snapped Today: Minnesota @ Kansas City Royals, 7:05 PM CT Betting Lines: MIN -155, O/U 9.5 Twins Starter: Devin Smeltzer, LHP 1-0 11.57 ERA Tonight is Smeltzer’s first start of the year as he’s worked as a bulk reliever for his two outings on the season. In six starts a year ago he posted a 4.11 ERA and allowed a .704 OPS to opposing hitters. While his ERA registered at just 3.44 when working in relief for the 2019 Twins, opponents OPS was nearly 200 points higher at .898. Smelter may be fond of Kansas City as they provided his first Major League win. When facing them at Target Field on August 4, 2019 he went 6.0 IP allowing no runs on just two hits while fanning four and walking one. The prototypical profile of a soft-tossing lefty, Smeltzer’s 89 mph average on the fastball won’t blow anyone away. His primary second pitch is the curveball, and it’s there that he looks for punchouts. He’s been a high strikeout guy in the minors and generated 7.0 K/9 last year as a rookie. The homer is his bugaboo and if he can avoid some of the Royals boppers tonight should go well for him. Royals Starter: Jakob Junis, RHP 0-0 4.15 ERA Junis has made just one appearance this season and it was a start against the Chicago White Sox. He lasted just 4.1 IP during that one and ceded two runs on six hits. Now in his fourth Major League season, the book has all but been written on Junis given the consistency he’s shown year over year. You can pencil him in for an ERA in the mid fours, and it’ll be complimented by a modest walk and strikeout rate. He’s been an innings eater of sorts throwing over 170 IP in each of the past two years for Kansas City. Where the biggest opportunity for opponents against Junis comes is launching the longball. He’s never allowed less than 1.4 HR/9 and was up to 1.6 HR/9 each of the past two seasons. Lefties had substantially more success against him last year, though the power numbers came from both sides of the plate. Kansas City knocked the Chicago Cubs around for 13 runs last night so it will be interesting to see if the bats have any runs support left in them. Lineup News & Notes - The St. Louis Cardinals return to the field today following their COVID-19 outbreak. It’s the first time they’ll have played a game since July 29, and the first time all 30 teams are active and healthy since the Marlins outbreak on July 26. UPDATE: More positives for the Cardinals, so no full slate tonight and St. Louis has a postponed game today. https://twitter.com/markasaxon/status/1291780266684559360 - Shohei Ohtani returned to the lineup for the Los Angeles Angels following the MRI revealing a forearm injury that will keep him off the mound for the rest of 2020. He homered. https://twitter.com/Angels/status/1291472127955091457 - Today, Mike Trout turns 29. At 74.0 fWAR he’s already posted the 46th highest mark in MLB history. What comes from here is anyone’s guess but it’s clear we’re watching one of the best ever. Around the AL Central CLE 13, CIN 0 KCR 13, CHC 2 MIL 8, CHW 3 1. MIN 10-3 (+29 run differential) 2. CLE 8-6 (+17) 3. CWS 7-6 (+2) 4. DET 5-5 (-11) 5. KCR 4-10 (-11)
  6. The Minnesota Twins have jumped out to a 7-2 start for the 9th time in franchise history, and first since 2001. Facing arguably the toughest portion of their schedule, they’ve certainly been up to the challenge. Now with some basement dwellers on tap, this is a massively important week. Rocco Baldelli’s club welcomes former bench coach Derek Shelton to Target Field tonight for a two-game, home and home series. The Pirates are just 2-7, don’t have much in the form of Major League talent, and also aren’t ready to call up any impact prospects. The Twins getting four games with a team expected to finish near the bottom of the NL Central is a nice reward following the tough stretch. From there, things don’t get too much tougher either. While the road trip does continue to Kansas City, three games with the Royals is something this very good ballclub should be licking their chops about. Mike Matheny’s group may not finish below the Detroit Tigers, but both clubs should be battling to be the worst in the AL Central. While that’s seven games in a row where Minnesota should be substantial favorites, the schedule also tilts in their direction when it comes to the chief competition. Cleveland has a home and home series with the Reds before traveling to face the White Sox and needing to cannibalize a division rival. Chicago does the home and home thing with Milwaukee to start their week off. Just nine games in the Twins already have a 2.0 game lead, but they also have a +22-run differential with the White Sox behind them at +5. By the end of the week Minnesota could have something like a four or five game lead, and in a season that the number represents over 8% of the total action, that’s substantial. You could make a very solid argument that the Twins toughest part of the season is now behind them. They do have a difficult run in September that spans just over a week and includes the Cardinals, Indians, White Sox, and Cubs as opponents. While that period certainly will determine the division, setting themselves up in such impressive starting position is a very enviable spot to be in. Only the New York Yankees have a better record than Minnesota right now and just the Dodgers have a better run differential (+30). Baldelli’s lineup hasn’t come close to thriving yet, and still a significant part of the damage is being done in the first two innings. However, the Twins haven’t lost when scoring first so jumping on the opposing starter early is hardly a bad strategy. We knew this season was going to be a sprint, and a good start generally sets up the ability for some pace in the middle. Josh Donaldson needs to get healthy and return. The lineup needs to get going. There are some tweaks to be made, but this group is setting up for something special. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. We’ve finally made it and baseball is back in just a matter of days. The Minnesota Twins will kick off this 60-game sprint in Chicago, and they’ll look to distance themselves from a team looking to prove they’re ready. I put out a 162-game projection back in February, but with so many logistical changes and update is necessary. I don’t foresee any changes in the positioning among the teams from where I had them at the beginning of the year, but we’re obviously only going to play roughly one-third of the games now. There’s significantly more volatility involved, and it will play against Minnesota more than any other club. That said, here’s how the division shakes out this season, and in parenthesis what the PECOTA projections are for each team in this scenario: Minnesota Twins 36-24 (35-25) There’s no argument to be made that Minnesota isn’t the best team in this division. They have arguably the best lineup in baseball and aren’t far behind with their bullpen. The rotation is cemented in depth and there’s plenty of candidates to be a top-tier arm as well. Josh Donaldson is a massive addition and having Rich Hill from the jump should be a nice boost. The Twins have stiffer competition in the White Sox this year, but it’s hard not to see the Indians having taken a step backwards. Cleveland Indians 32-28 (32-28) While it won’t be long before Chicago overtakes Cleveland, I’m not sure it happens in 2020. Cleveland still has an awesome rotation at the top with Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. Clevinger is already a health risk though, and Carlos Carrasco’s return is a question mark. Save for Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, there’s also concerns about star power in the lineup. Should this club stumble out of the gate, maybe Lindor gets moved at the deadline. Chicago White Sox 31-29 (31-29) I’m all in on Luis Robert, he’s going to be a stud. What his career ends up being remains to be seen, and while I think he could break out right away, there’s still plenty more that needs to go right for the White Sox. Lucas Giolito faded at times in 2019, and neither Dallas Keuchel nor Gio Gonzalez are impact pitchers anymore. Yasmani Grandal is a huge addition, but someone had to supplement the flash in the pan that was James McCann a year ago. The Southsiders will be knocking at the door soon, and the shortened season helps their chances, but give it one more year. Kansas City Royals 24-36 (25-35) Down here you’re really competing for the best of the worst, and I’m not certain what way these final two shake out. It’s my belief that the Royals slide will be less drastic than the volatility of the Tigers prospects. Kansas City isn’t good, and they aren’t exciting either. There are some pieces here though that can squeak out enough to stay out of the bottom spot in the division. Detroit Tigers 22-38 (26-34) I’m really excited to see what Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Alex Faedo, and Riley Greene can do. Unfortunately, none of those guys will be on the Opening Day roster, and while watching Miguel Cabrera chase down records is fun, there’s nothing else of note here. I don’t think Ron Gardenhire is the right guy to push a prospect-laden team forwards as that’s where he ended his tenure with the Twins, so he may see his way out around the time new faces make their debuts. In case you missed it, here’s how I have the yearly awards and Postseason shaking out as well: Award Winners and World Series Victors For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Rewind to this time last year and just about every projection system had a good but not great view of Minnesota under first-year manager Rocco Baldelli. PECOTA tabbed the Twins for a .500 record, while the Sporting News’s panel had them registering 83 wins. In 2020 PECOTA calls the Bomba Squad odds-on favorites to win the division tallying 93 victories. The result looks correct, but I’ll take aim at the final records and results within the shifting Central. 1. Minnesota Twins 98-64 (93-69*) Last year I characterized the Twins position by saying “no team has done more in the division to take strides forward.” That may not hold true in comparison to the Chicago White Sox for 2020, but Minnesota was a substantially better squad to begin with. They don’t need to win 101 games this time around, but they won’t be any less dominant. Josh Donaldson makes the lineup look like the best in the game, and Kenta Maeda provides stability to a deep rotation. They’ll add down the stretch if need be, and there’s bottom feeders to still pick on. Expecting a slight slide from Cleveland, wins won’t be hard to come by. 2. Cleveland Indians 85-77 (86-76*) It looked like Cleveland would take a step back last year, but it wasn’t quite as substantiated as I may have expected. Gone are both Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. The outfield has more questions than answers, and Francisco Lindor could conceivably be on his way out at any time. As has always been the case, the rotation will remain a threat, and you can bet they’ll develop another arm or two that will make an impact. The Indians should be competitive, but I don’t think the second Wild Card is coming from this division, and the dive off the deep end could be immediate here. 3. Chicago White Sox 84-78 (83-79*) Easily viewed as the darlings of the offseason, the White Sox did a ton to add talent on the 26-man roster. With internal pieces beginning to mature, it made sense to supplement. Yasmani Grandal is a massive get for them, but that’s really where the talent additions cease to outweigh the names. Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel are known commodities, but neither fit real well as ground ball pitchers in front of a poor defense. Nomar Mazara isn’t a good defender, and his corner partner Eloy was rough during his rookie year. Luis Robert could certainly be the real deal out of the gate, but the Southsiders seems to be looking for a lot from Nick Madrigal. Lucas Giolito put together a nice half-season, and Michael Kopech will factor in, but it’s actually Reynaldo Lopez I may be most intrigued by. This is a squad worth watching, and they’ll make some noise, but this is much more the 2017 Twins than it is the 2019 version. 4. Kansas City Royals 61-101 (68-94*) Things get ugly in a hurry here at the bottom of the AL Central. Kansas City won just 59 games a year ago, and they did very little in terms of adding talent. Whit Merrifield is a star, and Jorge Soler broke out, but the roster is really void of much else. Maikel Franco is a dart throw at third, and retaining 36-year-old Alex Gordon is more nostalgia than anything else. Maybe Salvador Perez returns from a missed 2019 and is a threat, but then again he’s never been much of a bat anyways. The Royals could easily bring up the rear in the division, but I’ll give them the benefit of doubt that they keep some of the gap established between them and Detroit a year ago. 5. Detroit Tigers 55-107 (69-93*) Across baseball in 2019, only the AL Central had two teams lose 100 or more games. That seems near certain to repeat itself in my estimation. Detroit added some veteran talent in Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to bolster the infield. Miguel Cabrera looks cooked though, and Cameron Maybin probably represents their best free agent acquisition. Matt Boyd looked the part of a staff ace for part of the year, and if he can get back to that at the beginning of 2020, they’d be silly not to move him by the deadline. I like Spencer Turnbull a decent amount, but Casey Mize should show up for this group in the next handful of months. With Mize being potentially joined by Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, and Alex Faedo this year, fans will have plenty of their future to watch. It probably won’t pan out much better immediately, but they have hope. *Designates 2020 PECOTA projection as of February 17, 2020 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  9. Going into the 2019 season just about every outlet had the Minnesota Twins as a clear second place finisher in the AL Central. They were an up and coming story, but not yet ready to break through. I found myself disagreeing with that and suggested they’d win the division. In 2020, it happens again.Rewind to this time last year and just about every projection system had a good but not great view of Minnesota under first-year manager Rocco Baldelli. PECOTA tabbed the Twins for a .500 record, while the Sporting News’s panel had them registering 83 wins. In 2020 PECOTA calls the Bomba Squad odds-on favorites to win the division tallying 93 victories. The result looks correct, but I’ll take aim at the final records and results within the shifting Central. 1. Minnesota Twins 98-64 (93-69*) Last year I characterized the Twins position by saying “no team has done more in the division to take strides forward.” That may not hold true in comparison to the Chicago White Sox for 2020, but Minnesota was a substantially better squad to begin with. They don’t need to win 101 games this time around, but they won’t be any less dominant. Josh Donaldson makes the lineup look like the best in the game, and Kenta Maeda provides stability to a deep rotation. They’ll add down the stretch if need be, and there’s bottom feeders to still pick on. Expecting a slight slide from Cleveland, wins won’t be hard to come by. 2. Cleveland Indians 85-77 (86-76*) It looked like Cleveland would take a step back last year, but it wasn’t quite as substantiated as I may have expected. Gone are both Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. The outfield has more questions than answers, and Francisco Lindor could conceivably be on his way out at any time. As has always been the case, the rotation will remain a threat, and you can bet they’ll develop another arm or two that will make an impact. The Indians should be competitive, but I don’t think the second Wild Card is coming from this division, and the dive off the deep end could be immediate here. 3. Chicago White Sox 84-78 (83-79*) Easily viewed as the darlings of the offseason, the White Sox did a ton to add talent on the 26-man roster. With internal pieces beginning to mature, it made sense to supplement. Yasmani Grandal is a massive get for them, but that’s really where the talent additions cease to outweigh the names. Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel are known commodities, but neither fit real well as ground ball pitchers in front of a poor defense. Nomar Mazara isn’t a good defender, and his corner partner Eloy was rough during his rookie year. Luis Robert could certainly be the real deal out of the gate, but the Southsiders seems to be looking for a lot from Nick Madrigal. Lucas Giolito put together a nice half-season, and Michael Kopech will factor in, but it’s actually Reynaldo Lopez I may be most intrigued by. This is a squad worth watching, and they’ll make some noise, but this is much more the 2017 Twins than it is the 2019 version. 4. Kansas City Royals 61-101 (68-94*) Things get ugly in a hurry here at the bottom of the AL Central. Kansas City won just 59 games a year ago, and they did very little in terms of adding talent. Whit Merrifield is a star, and Jorge Soler broke out, but the roster is really void of much else. Maikel Franco is a dart throw at third, and retaining 36-year-old Alex Gordon is more nostalgia than anything else. Maybe Salvador Perez returns from a missed 2019 and is a threat, but then again he’s never been much of a bat anyways. The Royals could easily bring up the rear in the division, but I’ll give them the benefit of doubt that they keep some of the gap established between them and Detroit a year ago. 5. Detroit Tigers 55-107 (69-93*) Across baseball in 2019, only the AL Central had two teams lose 100 or more games. That seems near certain to repeat itself in my estimation. Detroit added some veteran talent in Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to bolster the infield. Miguel Cabrera looks cooked though, and Cameron Maybin probably represents their best free agent acquisition. Matt Boyd looked the part of a staff ace for part of the year, and if he can get back to that at the beginning of 2020, they’d be silly not to move him by the deadline. I like Spencer Turnbull a decent amount, but Casey Mize should show up for this group in the next handful of months. With Mize being potentially joined by Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, and Alex Faedo this year, fans will have plenty of their future to watch. It probably won’t pan out much better immediately, but they have hope. *Designates 2020 PECOTA projection as of February 17, 2020 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  10. This is an excerpt form an article which originates at Zone Coverage. Click here to read it in full. This isn't the first time Devin Smeltzer has been summoned to the Twin Cities to replace an ailing Michael Pineda on the Minnesota Twins' 25-man roster. That came back in late May. But if how the young lefty has thrown in his big-league stints has been any indication, there might not be many more recalls -- he's been that impressive. The last time we saw the lefty on a big-league mound, he was giving the Twins a massive lift on July 24. Their pitching staff was in tatters, and after Jake Odorizzi was bounced early that night by a powerful Yankees offense, Smeltzer jumped in and cleaned up the final five innings of the game, allowing just a solo homer to Edwin Encarnacion while allowing the offense to claw back and at least make a game of it late. His reward was being sent back out right after the game in a seemingly endless cycling of pitchers between Rochester and Minnesota leading up to the trade deadline -- but he wasn't there for long. Smeltzer got word that he would be needed to start on Sunday sometime Saturday and arrived in Minneapolis with plenty of time to prepare for Sunday's start.He couldn't have looked more locked in. Smeltzer and three relievers combined for a two-hit shutout of the Kansas City Royals in a 3-0 win -- and it was threes across the board. Three runs scored Three wins in the series Three games up in the Central There was also one very notable one in there as well -- it was Smeltzer's first MLB win.The offense wasn't terrific, as Royals righty Brad Keller held them at bay for much of the afternoon, but they got just enough production -- both in terms of manufacturing runs and driving the ball out of the ballpark -- to steal a sweep and grab their 69th win of the season. Nice.
  11. Brief Overview: Again, I previewed this team before (funny how division rivals work) and not much has changed for this squad except that they have gotten slightly worse after selling Homer Bailey, Jake Diekman, and Martín Maldonado. This is a team that wants to lose just as much as the Twins want to win and at 70 losses already, they are doing a fine job at that. Maybe the Twins can help them in their endeavors. What They Do Well: This team is still very fast! Despite the baseball meta shifting toward power and away from speed, the Royals stand as one of the few teams who refuse to evolve. They have swiped 91 bases and have four players with double-digit steals, a major difference in philosophy compared to the Twins who prefer smacking home runs and staying put (the Twins of course lead the league in homers but also are dead last in steals). Along with stealing, this team still plays excellent defense as their team defense rating on FanGraphs is the second highest in baseball and the highest in the AL. It shall be interesting to see if the Twins lose out on some scoring chances because of a nice diving catch or a well-played stop in the infield. Prepare to be annoyed. What They Do Not Do Well: How long do I have? Oh man… Well, this team is very poor in many ways. The first of which is that their starting pitching is the fifth lowest in MLB by fWAR. After trading Homer Bailey, only one of their starters has more than 1.0 fWAR (Brad Keller) and only two have tossed more than 100 innings so far this year. They have the fifth lowest starter K/9 in baseball but they make up for not being able to strike people out by walking them too much as their BB/9 is the seventh highest in baseball. They have decided to bring back the Mike-Montgomery-as-a-starter experiment and so far he has struck out just five in 11 1/3 innings. Amazing. On the hitting side of things, their 86 team wRC+ isn’t just Kurt Suzuki’s Twins wRC+, but also the fifth worst in baseball. Not being able to hit or get quality starting pitching is like trying to build a Lego house on a beach as a tsunami comes screaming in at you while you blissfully stay focused on your soon-to-be meaningless task. I suppose that makes the Twins the tsunami in this scenario which is kind of mean but hopefully not fully inaccurate. Individuals Of Note: I’m being somewhat mean so I’ll let up here. Their positional core of Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, and Adalberto Mondesi is more than respectable as all have already reached the 2.0 fWAR mark this year. Although Mondesi has been on the IL since the middle of June and his status for the series is in question. Beyond them, they also have Jorge Soler who has put up a solid 116 wRC+ this year thanks in part to his 28 home runs. He represents their major power threat and will no doubt be in the middle of the lineup when he plays. They have also called up Bubba Starling somewhat recently and he is a very interesting player. Starling was the fifth overall pick in 2011 but saw his prospect status crater after he hit a wall at AA in 2015-2016. He stayed in the farm for much longer than he and the team anticipated, but now he is finally in the majors after years of waiting. His numbers so far are uninspiring, but he still holds some very interesting tools and is one of the few players whose athleticism could be compared to Byron Buxton with any hint of seriousness. On the pitching side of things, Brad Keller has been by far their best starting pitcher as he sits at the 1.7 fWAR mark. Despite striking out just 16.6% of batters, a number that even Pat Dean and his 16.7% Twins K rate scoffs at, Keller makes it work by getting an elite amount of ground balls as his 51.5% GB rate is the ninth highest among all qualified MLB starters. Ian Kennedy remains one of the very best relievers in baseball this year as he is eighth among all relievers in fWAR. It is somewhat surprising that basically no trade rumors came about focused on him but his contract probably discouraged some teams and so he remains a dominant force in the back-end of the Royals pen. Recent History: The Twins have played three series against the Royals this year and are 6-3 against them on the year. The Twins swept a two-game series in KC in April, then took two of three at home in June, and then split a four-game series in KC the same month. Recent Trajectories: The Twins are 8-8 over their last five series while the Royals are also 8-8. The Royals over that stretch swept the White Sox in a four-game series, took two on the road against the Braves, and also got swept in three at home against the Blue Jays, I have no clue what to make of that. Pitching Match-ups: Friday: Pérez vs Sparkman Saturday: Gibson vs Duffy Sunday: Odorizzi vs Keller Ending Thoughts: The Twins finally saw their schedule soften up a bit as they played the White Sox and the Marlins in back-to-back series and now they get another chance to pounce on a weak team. In my eyes, this team is on the verge of breaking out and getting back in the form we saw earlier in the year where they were taking care of teams with such a ruthless efficiency that hit-men around the globe nodded in approval. Now, before I predict what the series is, I must bring up the fact that I am a perfect 6-for-6 in my predictions so far, good thing I can use my clairvoyance for something as useful as this. The great news? I am feeling a sweep for the Twins as they take all three games against KC this weekend. You’re welcome.
  12. Ah, the glorious feeling of coming home for an extended home stand and seeing the Kansas City Royals as your opponent. The Twins took care of business on the road and got rewarded with a great opportunity to put some distance between them and Cleveland. Unfortunately for me, Kansas City has yielded a low amount of known music acts so I am forced to make a Charlie Parker reference in my title. It was either this, Tech N9ne, or Puddle Of Mudd, I chose well.Brief Overview: Again, I previewed this team before (funny how division rivals work) and not much has changed for this squad except that they have gotten slightly worse after selling Homer Bailey, Jake Diekman, and Martín Maldonado. This is a team that wants to lose just as much as the Twins want to win and at 70 losses already, they are doing a fine job at that. Maybe the Twins can help them in their endeavors. What They Do Well: This team is still very fast! Despite the baseball meta shifting toward power and away from speed, the Royals stand as one of the few teams who refuse to evolve. They have swiped 91 bases and have four players with double-digit steals, a major difference in philosophy compared to the Twins who prefer smacking home runs and staying put (the Twins of course lead the league in homers but also are dead last in steals). Along with stealing, this team still plays excellent defense as their team defense rating on FanGraphs is the second highest in baseball and the highest in the AL. It shall be interesting to see if the Twins lose out on some scoring chances because of a nice diving catch or a well-played stop in the infield. Prepare to be annoyed. What They Do Not Do Well: How long do I have? Oh man… Well, this team is very poor in many ways. The first of which is that their starting pitching is the fifth lowest in MLB by fWAR. After trading Homer Bailey, only one of their starters has more than 1.0 fWAR (Brad Keller) and only two have tossed more than 100 innings so far this year. They have the fifth lowest starter K/9 in baseball but they make up for not being able to strike people out by walking them too much as their BB/9 is the seventh highest in baseball. They have decided to bring back the Mike-Montgomery-as-a-starter experiment and so far he has struck out just five in 11 1/3 innings. Amazing. On the hitting side of things, their 86 team wRC+ isn’t just Kurt Suzuki’s Twins wRC+, but also the fifth worst in baseball. Not being able to hit or get quality starting pitching is like trying to build a Lego house on a beach as a tsunami comes screaming in at you while you blissfully stay focused on your soon-to-be meaningless task. I suppose that makes the Twins the tsunami in this scenario which is kind of mean but hopefully not fully inaccurate. Individuals Of Note: I’m being somewhat mean so I’ll let up here. Their positional core of Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, and Adalberto Mondesi is more than respectable as all have already reached the 2.0 fWAR mark this year. Although Mondesi has been on the IL since the middle of June and his status for the series is in question. Beyond them, they also have Jorge Soler who has put up a solid 116 wRC+ this year thanks in part to his 28 home runs. He represents their major power threat and will no doubt be in the middle of the lineup when he plays. They have also called up Bubba Starling somewhat recently and he is a very interesting player. Starling was the fifth overall pick in 2011 but saw his prospect status crater after he hit a wall at AA in 2015-2016. He stayed in the farm for much longer than he and the team anticipated, but now he is finally in the majors after years of waiting. His numbers so far are uninspiring, but he still holds some very interesting tools and is one of the few players whose athleticism could be compared to Byron Buxton with any hint of seriousness. On the pitching side of things, Brad Keller has been by far their best starting pitcher as he sits at the 1.7 fWAR mark. Despite striking out just 16.6% of batters, a number that even Pat Dean and his 16.7% Twins K rate scoffs at, Keller makes it work by getting an elite amount of ground balls as his 51.5% GB rate is the ninth highest among all qualified MLB starters. Ian Kennedy remains one of the very best relievers in baseball this year as he is eighth among all relievers in fWAR. It is somewhat surprising that basically no trade rumors came about focused on him but his contract probably discouraged some teams and so he remains a dominant force in the back-end of the Royals pen. Recent History: The Twins have played three series against the Royals this year and are 6-3 against them on the year. The Twins swept a two-game series in KC in April, then took two of three at home in June, and then split a four-game series in KC the same month. Recent Trajectories: The Twins are 8-8 over their last five series while the Royals are also 8-8. The Royals over that stretch swept the White Sox in a four-game series, took two on the road against the Braves, and also got swept in three at home against the Blue Jays, I have no clue what to make of that. Pitching Match-ups: Friday: Pérez vs Sparkman Saturday: Gibson vs Duffy Sunday: Odorizzi vs Keller Ending Thoughts: The Twins finally saw their schedule soften up a bit as they played the White Sox and the Marlins in back-to-back series and now they get another chance to pounce on a weak team. In my eyes, this team is on the verge of breaking out and getting back in the form we saw earlier in the year where they were taking care of teams with such a ruthless efficiency that hit-men around the globe nodded in approval. Now, before I predict what the series is, I must bring up the fact that I am a perfect 6-for-6 in my predictions so far, good thing I can use my clairvoyance for something as useful as this. The great news? I am feeling a sweep for the Twins as they take all three games against KC this weekend. You’re welcome. Click here to view the article
  13. Ian Kennedy has been an established MLB starting pitcher for more than a decade now. Kennedy was the New York Yankees first-round draft pick back in 2006 out of the University of Southern California. It didn’t take Kennedy long to get to the majors, as he made his MLB debut just a year later in 2007. After not having much success in his first few seasons with the Yankees, they traded Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of the three-team deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and Max Scherzer to the Detroit Tigers. After a couple of good seasons as a starter for the Diamondbacks Kennedy started to struggle in 2012 and was eventually traded to the San Diego Padres at the 2013 July trade deadline. After a couple of decent seasons with the Padres, Kennedy signed a five-year $70 million-dollar deal with the defending champion Kansas City Royals in January of 2016. After the 2018 season, it was clear that the 34-year-old pitcher was losing a step, which played a part in the Royals transitioning Ian Kennedy to the bullpen this offseason. This move has paid off big for both Kennedy and the Royals. In 32 innings, across 31 relief appearances, Kennedy has a 3.38 ERA (2.06 FIP), with a 11.25 K/9 and just a 1.41 BB/9. Among the 173 qualified relievers this season, Kennedy’s 8.0 strikeout to walk ratio ranks 4th. This will be very attractive to the Twins front office which has shown an affinity for pitchers with excellent strikeout and walk numbers. We often hear how a move to the bullpen helps a starting pitcher gain some velocity on his fastball, and all of a sudden, he are a new and improved pitcher. In a game with so much complexity it’s hard to believe something as simple as this can make such a big difference, but with Ian Kennedy it has. In 2018, Kennedy averaged 91.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball. This year, that number is up two full ticks to 93.9 MPH. This has helped Kennedy hold opposing hitters to a .189 batting average and a .214 wOBA against his fastball, both marks are easily the best of his career. What amplifies this effect is that Kennedy is throwing his fastball on a career high 65 percent of hit pitches. With such a drastic improvement on a pitch that he throws over 60% of the time, it is no wonder why Kennedy has been so much better this year. One thing the Twins will have to consider when trading for Ian Kennedy is the money left on his contract. Kennedy is currently on year four of that five-year deal I mentioned previously, which would give the Twins control through 2020 if they were to trade for him. While this would be a nice addition, the $16.5 million that Kennedy is due in both 2019 and 2020 will give the Twins some pause. The money for 2019 might not be so intimidating as he will only be owed roughly $5.5 million if the Twins were to trade for him at the July 31st trade deadline. The part that might keep them from wanting to deal for Kennedy is the $16.5 million owed to him in 2020. That is a substantial amount of money, for a reliever, and that could drastically alter their plans for this upcoming offseason. At the same rate, Kennedy’s contract will probably make him available for cheap in terms of prospect capital, so if their focus is on maintaining as many of their prospects as possible, while still adding to the team, Kennedy could be a great target. See Also Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
  14. As we move into July, we are getting closer and closer to the time where the Minnesota Twins need to make a move in order to solidify their bullpen for a postseason run. As we have seen in recent years, it’s of upmost importance for teams to have as many relievers that they can trust to get big outs in the postseason as possible. Fortunately for the Twins, relievers who can help a team in the postseason seem to be in abundance. Here at Twins Daily, we have already posted an article on more than a dozen potential relievers the Twins could target, and today we continue that list with Kansas City Royals closer Ian Kennedy.Ian Kennedy has been an established MLB starting pitcher for more than a decade now. Kennedy was the New York Yankees first-round draft pick back in 2006 out of the University of Southern California. It didn’t take Kennedy long to get to the majors, as he made his MLB debut just a year later in 2007. After not having much success in his first few seasons with the Yankees, they traded Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of the three-team deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and Max Scherzer to the Detroit Tigers. After a couple of good seasons as a starter for the Diamondbacks Kennedy started to struggle in 2012 and was eventually traded to the San Diego Padres at the 2013 July trade deadline. After a couple of decent seasons with the Padres, Kennedy signed a five-year $70 million-dollar deal with the defending champion Kansas City Royals in January of 2016. After the 2018 season, it was clear that the 34-year-old pitcher was losing a step, which played a part in the Royals transitioning Ian Kennedy to the bullpen this offseason. This move has paid off big for both Kennedy and the Royals. In 32 innings, across 31 relief appearances, Kennedy has a 3.38 ERA (2.06 FIP), with a 11.25 K/9 and just a 1.41 BB/9. Among the 173 qualified relievers this season, Kennedy’s 8.0 strikeout to walk ratio ranks 4th. This will be very attractive to the Twins front office which has shown an affinity for pitchers with excellent strikeout and walk numbers. We often hear how a move to the bullpen helps a starting pitcher gain some velocity on his fastball, and all of a sudden, he are a new and improved pitcher. In a game with so much complexity it’s hard to believe something as simple as this can make such a big difference, but with Ian Kennedy it has. In 2018, Kennedy averaged 91.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball. This year, that number is up two full ticks to 93.9 MPH. This has helped Kennedy hold opposing hitters to a .189 batting average and a .214 wOBA against his fastball, both marks are easily the best of his career. What amplifies this effect is that Kennedy is throwing his fastball on a career high 65 percent of hit pitches. With such a drastic improvement on a pitch that he throws over 60% of the time, it is no wonder why Kennedy has been so much better this year. One thing the Twins will have to consider when trading for Ian Kennedy is the money left on his contract. Kennedy is currently on year four of that five-year deal I mentioned previously, which would give the Twins control through 2020 if they were to trade for him. While this would be a nice addition, the $16.5 million that Kennedy is due in both 2019 and 2020 will give the Twins some pause. The money for 2019 might not be so intimidating as he will only be owed roughly $5.5 million if the Twins were to trade for him at the July 31st trade deadline. The part that might keep them from wanting to deal for Kennedy is the $16.5 million owed to him in 2020. That is a substantial amount of money, for a reliever, and that could drastically alter their plans for this upcoming offseason. At the same rate, Kennedy’s contract will probably make him available for cheap in terms of prospect capital, so if their focus is on maintaining as many of their prospects as possible, while still adding to the team, Kennedy could be a great target. See Also Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article
  15. The Royals current record is 25-48, albeit with a pythag W/L of 31-42 that suggests some bad luck, but they still find themselves in the basement of a poor AL Central. What They Do Well The Royals have stolen the most bases in baseball and it isn’t even really particularly close (70 swipes, second place is 61). The main culprit has been Adalberto Mondesi whose 27 swipes is more than the entirety of 10 teams so far. After that, both Billy Hamilton and Whit Merrifield clock in with more than 10 steals. None of the three catchers who the Twins have employed rank notably well in pop time or arm strength according to Statcast so the Royals will certainly look to cause some havoc on the base paths against them. Defensively, the Royals rank as the fifth-best defensive team in baseball according to Fangraphs thanks in large part to their excellent range that FanGraphs has as the fourth best in MLB. Their defense is cemented by two great defensive catchers in Cam Gallagher and Martin Maldonado, great up-the-middle defense thanks to shortstop Adalberto Mondesi and second baseman Nicky Lopez, and the speedster Billy Hamilton in center who can make Twins fans understand what other fans feel whenever Byron Buxton robs someone of a hit. A great defense can be frustrating to play against both as a fan watching and as a team playing against said defense so I assume the Royals figured they might as well be annoying if they aren’t going to be good. What They Do Not Do Well Generally, when you compliment a team and the only two things you can come up with are speed and defense, that's a sign that you aren’t talking about a good team. The Royals have the eighth-worst wRC+ at 87 (as well as Danny Valencia hit with the Twins), their team FIP is the 12th worst in baseball at 4.56 (Grant Balfour’s Twins FIP was 4.54), their offense walks at a 7.7% clip (Denny Hocking or Matthew LeCroy, take your pick), and their pitchers strike out eight guys per nine (Matt Belisle’s Twins run has them beat at 8.04). To put it simply, this team is below average to bad in most offensive and pitching categories. Individuals Of Note Not to be incredibly down, the Royals do have a few interesting players of note. Hunter Dozier has accumulated 2.3 fWAR over 216 plate appearances this year (but he is currently on the IL and his status for the weekend makes it seem like he is unlikely to play), Adalberto Mondesi has continued to do well with his interesting combo of power (.172 ISO, 11th best among qualified SS) and speed (the aforementioned 27 steals), and Whit Merrifield is still the quality player at the bat and in the field that Twins fans have come to expect. On the pitching side of things, Homer Bailey is enjoying a strange renaissance as he sits at a 4.09 FIP on the year, a good .73 points below his ERA, and Ian Kennedy has had a resurgence as a reliever and he currently holds a 2.06 FIP thanks in part to a 30.4 K%. Recent History The last time these two teams played was … last series! The Twins took two of three at home with all three games being decided by two runs or fewer. The last time the Twins played Kansas City in Kansas City was the quick two-game series all the way back on April 2 and 3. The Twins took both games thanks to late heroics in both matches but would probably like to avoid needing that this time around. Ending Thoughts The Royals are tanking, yes, but divisional games on the road are never a given no matter the talent difference and a split series (in my opinion) would not be all too surprising. But as long as the Twins play like the Twins we know and love, they should be able to win some games against a Royals team that has no desire, nor much ability, to win this year.
  16. Setting the stage a bit: Kyle Gibson had a less than ideal outing. Although he cruised through four innings ceding just one run, there’s no denying that he danced around a certain level of danger. In the fifth, the good fortune ran out and the Royals hung a five spot on the Twins starter. After building a 3-1 lead the inning prior, Rocco Baldelli’s club found themselves looking at a 6-3 deficit with just four innings to play. What took place from that point forward is where this story begins. The Twins lineup put up runs in three of the next four innings, heading into the bottom of the ninth clinging to a 7-6 lead. This lineup, which has been infused with power bats and fresh faces, took good hacks at the plate while forcing counts in their favor. Coming back from a three-run deficit, they allowed the bullpen an opportunity to steal a win out of what looked like a defeat. In the bottom of the ninth inning Whit Merrifield stepped to the plate, and the tone was set. Mitch Garver, who was more than overwhelmed defensively in 2018, took over the game. Trevor May had gotten behind to the tune of a 3-1 count and poured in a fastball on the outside corner of the zone. Garver stuck the pitch and attacked it, allowing home plate umpire Jeff Kellogg to accurately call it a strike. A season ago, Garver likely lets the pitch get in on him or drift, and it would no longer present as a pitch within the strike zone. After generating that strike, which Merrifield believed was ball four, May went back to the corner of the zone but slightly missed his spot. Garver set up low and Trevor’s fastball drifted outside and off the plate. Because Garver was able to grab the strike just a pitch earlier in the at-bat, the Royals outfielder chased this one and rolled a weak grounder to second base. With such a strong hitter at the plate, and only a one run lead to protect, that at-bat set up the Twins to hang on in the game. We’re far too early in the season to put any stock in advanced defensive metrics. That said, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone closely observing the Twins not taking notice of Garver’s step forward. He’s got a much stronger command of the zone, is setting up behind the plate in a way that allows the umpire a better vantage point, and in general his defense appears to have taken significant strides forward. For both Garver and the pitching staff, this is a development that will no doubt equate to a few more wins over the course of a full season. On top of this specific instance, Minnesota won their second one-run game of the season by closing out the Royals. A season ago the Twins went 15-21 in one-run contests. They didn’t win their second one-run game on the road until June 28th. In completing the two-game sweep of Kansas City, Minnesota busted out the brooms over a full month earlier than last year. Winning the close games, and beating a team they should, are two areas of welcomed development for this big-league slate. It’s early and will remain that way until spring turns to summer. Taking care of business as often as possible helps to set up a much more manageable path to the postseason, however. Minnesota leads the division by a game currently. They haven’t experienced a 2.0 game lead since June 15, 2017 and haven’t led by more than 3.0 games since October 3, 2010. Continuing to put themselves in a position where they can win in these small scenarios, or key instances, is what will eventually vault this team to a place to which they aspire. Mitch Garver setting up an important out in April isn’t a huge deal. Coming back to win a one-run game against the Royals before May likely gets forgotten. Replicate these situations as often as possible however, and you’ll have a season in which a strong process is driving equally strong results.
  17. Here’s the reality, the 2019 Minnesota Twins are plenty talented. This team is good enough to challenge the Cleveland Indians for the AL Central division title, and they’re built to win a postseason series. They aren’t a juggernaut however, and that’s more than OK. Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics of 2018 exist because they win in situations where the outcome is somewhat left to chance. Through their first five games, Minnesota has stolen opportunity when left up for grabs, and that couldn’t have been more apparent in than the final game in Kansas City on Wednesday afternoon.Setting the stage a bit: Kyle Gibson had a less than ideal outing. Although he cruised through four innings ceding just one run, there’s no denying that he danced around a certain level of danger. In the fifth, the good fortune ran out and the Royals hung a five spot on the Twins starter. After building a 3-1 lead the inning prior, Rocco Baldelli’s club found themselves looking at a 6-3 deficit with just four innings to play. What took place from that point forward is where this story begins. The Twins lineup put up runs in three of the next four innings, heading into the bottom of the ninth clinging to a 7-6 lead. This lineup, which has been infused with power bats and fresh faces, took good hacks at the plate while forcing counts in their favor. Coming back from a three-run deficit, they allowed the bullpen an opportunity to steal a win out of what looked like a defeat. In the bottom of the ninth inning Whit Merrifield stepped to the plate, and the tone was set. Mitch Garver, who was more than overwhelmed defensively in 2018, took over the game. Trevor May had gotten behind to the tune of a 3-1 count and poured in a fastball on the outside corner of the zone. Garver stuck the pitch and attacked it, allowing home plate umpire Jeff Kellogg to accurately call it a strike. A season ago, Garver likely lets the pitch get in on him or drift, and it would no longer present as a pitch within the strike zone. Download attachment: pjimage (2).jpg After generating that strike, which Merrifield believed was ball four, May went back to the corner of the zone but slightly missed his spot. Garver set up low and Trevor’s fastball drifted outside and off the plate. Because Garver was able to grab the strike just a pitch earlier in the at-bat, the Royals outfielder chased this one and rolled a weak grounder to second base. With such a strong hitter at the plate, and only a one run lead to protect, that at-bat set up the Twins to hang on in the game. We’re far too early in the season to put any stock in advanced defensive metrics. That said, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone closely observing the Twins not taking notice of Garver’s step forward. He’s got a much stronger command of the zone, is setting up behind the plate in a way that allows the umpire a better vantage point, and in general his defense appears to have taken significant strides forward. For both Garver and the pitching staff, this is a development that will no doubt equate to a few more wins over the course of a full season. On top of this specific instance, Minnesota won their second one-run game of the season by closing out the Royals. A season ago the Twins went 15-21 in one-run contests. They didn’t win their second one-run game on the road until June 28th. In completing the two-game sweep of Kansas City, Minnesota busted out the brooms over a full month earlier than last year. Winning the close games, and beating a team they should, are two areas of welcomed development for this big-league slate. It’s early and will remain that way until spring turns to summer. Taking care of business as often as possible helps to set up a much more manageable path to the postseason, however. Minnesota leads the division by a game currently. They haven’t experienced a 2.0 game lead since June 15, 2017 and haven’t led by more than 3.0 games since October 3, 2010. Continuing to put themselves in a position where they can win in these small scenarios, or key instances, is what will eventually vault this team to a place to which they aspire. Mitch Garver setting up an important out in April isn’t a huge deal. Coming back to win a one-run game against the Royals before May likely gets forgotten. Replicate these situations as often as possible however, and you’ll have a season in which a strong process is driving equally strong results. Click here to view the article
  18. We are now at the point in the Major League Baseball calendar where exhibition games have commenced, teams are looking at how to fill out their 25-man roster, and the regular season is on the horizon. Although a few marquee free agents remain, I’m at a point where I feel good about how what could potentially be baseball’s worst division, is going to play out. The incumbent division winning Cleveland Indians are ready to defend their throne and it’ll be on a challenger to emerge. Including current PECOTA projections (as of February 26, 2019) next to predicted records, here’s how this writer has the standings for the American League Central playing out: 1. Minnesota Twins 92-70 (83-79) No team has done more in the division to take strides forward than the Twins for 2019. While that’s great in a vacuum, no team was also able to make bigger moves than Minnesota as well. I’ve dug deeper into why I think this is realistic in a secondary piece here, but the front office must be hoping what they’ve done is enough. Despite what’s being billed as a “wait and see” type approach, I’m all in on the Falvey and Levine being vindicated in their decision making. 2. Cleveland Indians 89-73 (96-66) Quite opposite of the Twins, arguably no team within the division has gotten worse than the Indians. Cleveland loses Michael Brantley as well as Carlos Santana. They’ve replaced the latter with Edwin Encarnacion, but there’s no outfield to speak of, and significant reliance on repeat performances. Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor all posted career year’s in 2018, all while Cleveland mustered just 91 wins. Lindor will miss the beginning of the season, and despite the rotation still being among the best in baseball, it’s hard not wondering what else to fall in love with surrounding this team. 3. Chicago White Sox 73-89 (70-92) One of the trendiest teams in baseball right now, the White Sox are being lauded for their stellar farm system. There’s no denying that Eloy Jimenez is a stud, and he’s backed by names like Kopech, Cease, and Robert. The first starter on that list is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery though, and there’s always an incredible amount of volatility when it comes to top prospects (ask Twins fans about that.) Manny Machado would’ve moved the needle for this franchise, but instead of going all in, Kenny Williams signed friends and family hoping that would be enough. Chicago will get there, and an 11-game jump in the win column from 2018 is no small task, but that’s about where the fun ends. 4. Kansas City Royals 69-93 (72-90) Welcome to the dreaded middle ground. It was great for the Royals that they popped up and won a World Series, as the fanbase could be looking at mediocrity or worse for quite some time. The big-league club is void of any real star potential, and the farm system is among the worst in baseball. Kansas City can’t spend big with it making any sort of a difference, but they’ve also yet to hit on any prospects that put them in a better light going forward. If you’re a Royals fan, the highlight of the season is June 3rd when Dayton Moore will have the second overall pick in the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft. 5. Detroit Tigers 62-100 (67-95) If Kansas City is considered the dreaded middle ground, then Detroit is trending in a much better direction. The Tigers have a strong farm system headlined by pitching stalwarts, and they also hold the 5th overall pick this summer. There’s still plenty of questions surrounding both Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd, and Detroit is hoping to see Nicholas Castellanos take yet another step forward, but there’s some building blocks here. Miguel Cabrera is on his way to Cooperstown, but Niko Goodrum has provided some immediate intrigue in the infield. This team won’t be good in 2019, but they could certainly flip the script in the coming years. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. With free agency being a bit slower moving (to put it nicely) this offseason, this piece comes out a few weeks later than in previous years. At this point, there's still a handful of quality major league talent unemployed. For the most part, I think the AL Central is looking towards the year ahead as opposed to who else can join them in competing during 2018. Projection systems have started to run win totals for the upcoming season, and major sportsbook Bovada has also posted over/under win totals for each team. Rather than hold out for the last of the remaining free agents to leave IMG Academy in Bradenton, it's time to throw numbers out for the Twins and their competition. Here's how I see the AL Central in 2018: 1. Cleveland Indians (98-64) The team at the top of the division seems to have taken a slight step backwards over the offseason. Carlos Santana left for the Phillies, and key pen arm Bryan Shaw is no longer in the mix. Yonder Alonso will have to recapture his Oakland magic if he's going to remove the memory of Santana, and it'll be lightning in a bottle if Melvin Upton or one of the MiLB deals pans out well. That said, the Indians are still the team to be in the division, and it's largely on the backs of a strong pitching staff. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco remain lights out at the top, with a strong duo of Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer behind them. The bottom half of the Central getting weaker should help add some additional wins to offset some of the talent losses. 2. Minnesota Twins (87-75) If you asked me to take a bet on what was more likely, the Twins win 90 games or lose 81, I'd take the former. After making a Postseason appearance a season ago, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine accomplished what they set out to do this winter. Although the club didn't land the big fish in Yu Darvish, Jake Odorizzi is a top three starter for them, and helps to supplement the roation. The relief corps was strengthened with the addition of Addison Reed, and both Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney should play a big role for this club. With so many players still looking for jobs, it's fair to wonder if Minnesota doesn't aim a bit higher than Kennys Vargas or Robbie Grossman for the DH role. I'd expect Miguel Sano to miss a handful of games due to suspension, but still think he'll have a shot at surpassing the 114 contests he got into a season ago. Another year of growth for the youth, plus some key veteran additions, make the Twins the most improved team in the AL. Their record is a reflection of battling back against regression, as well as a division that should have plenty more wins to be had from the doldrums. 3. Kansas City Royals (72-90) If there's a team that lost more than the Indians over the offseason, it's definitely the Royals. Unfortunately for Kansas City, they don't have near the ability left to overcome it. Exits from Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain will be felt mightily, and even if Mike Moustakas is brought back, the core just isn't there any longer. Jason Vargas played a key role in the first half for the Royals, and he's now in New York. Combine the exits with a lack of internal talent ready to step up and you've got somewhat of a doomsday scenario. Right now, the Royals are treading water but don't have much of a direction. The farm doesn't have anything in terms of top prospects, and there's a lot of fliers at the top that can play fill in roles. Without much in terms of capital to deal for future talent either, it could be a bit before the Royals find themselves relevant again. 4. Chicago White Sox (69-93) Arguably the most talent deprive 25 man roster in the division, the White Sox are in a full rebuild situation, but at least they know it. Having moved on from players in return for a good group of prospects, there's a plan in place here even if it takes a few more years to come to fruition. Over the winter, Chicago handed out a few low-risk veteran deals that should also be able to net them some pieces throughout the upcoming season. Yoan Moncada should be a staple at the big league level this season, but guys like Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech aren't there yet. Lucas Giolito needs to be a big arm for the South Siders, and players like Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, and Dylan Cease have to develop in the year ahead as well. Most of the names Chicago will build its future around won't show up in 2018, but fans should be checking the box scores on the farm frequently. 5. Detroit Tigers (66-96) The bottom three teams in the division provide nice comparisons to each other. If the Royals are treading water without a plan, and the White Sox are stripping it down to rebuild, the Tigers are old and stuck in some level of purgatory. Miguel Cabrera still has six-years and $184 million left on his deal, and I'd suspect no one would take on Cabrera's contract at this point. Michael Fulmer is a nice young piece, but he probably isn't going to be around by the time Detroit finds itself relevant again. For new skipper Ron Gardenhire, the club is going to have to find a direction sooner rather than later. The club should hang around in the early going, but fading down the stretch and holding somewhat of a fire sale seems like a good bet. Gardenhire was let go around the time Minnesota could see the rebuild bear fruit, so he'll be navigating some similar waters in Motown with 90 loss seasons checking off the past four years of his resume. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. The Minnesota Twins had a day off on Monday. Some of the players went to the Minnesota Vikings season opener. Hopefully all of them got some quality rest. The Twins now have 19 games in the next 20 days. And that's assuming there isn't a Game 163, which the Twins have a bit of experience with. Let's take a look at the Twins' opponents over these final 19 games.The Twins have just one off-day (on Monday, September 25th) remaining. Other than that, it's full-steam ahead toward the regular season's finish line. There remain high hopes among players and fans alike that the season will continue beyond the regular season's final regularly scheduled day (Sunday, October 1st). The opponents over the final 19 games comprise an interesting mix of teams. There are a couple of teams playing out the string. There is one team that pretty much never loses. And there is one team that the Twins have some hopes of catching before the end of the season, likely in an attempt to get to play them one more time. Here is a quick look at the remaining opponents on the Twins: San Diego Padres (September 12-13): The Twins played two games in San Diego earlier in the season, and now they will play their final interleague games, starting tonight. The Padres are 65-79 on the season. However, the team just came off of a series in which they won two out of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The weekend before, they won three out of four against the Los Angeles Dodgers, starting their losing streak. In between, they lost three out of four to the St. Louis Cardinals. Toronto Blue Jays (September 14-17): The Twins will play four games at home this weekend against the Blue Jays, a team that has had their number in recent years, but the Twins won two out of three in Toronto in late August. The Blue Jays beat Baltimore on Monday, and before that they won two out of three against the Tigers. Before that, they lost two out of three to the Red Sox. New York Yankees (September 18-20): The Twins will travel to the Bronx to take on the team they are chasing for the top wild card position. They are currently four games behind the Yankees for that spot, but that could be different in a week. This is a good Yankees team, but it isn't your older brother's Yankees. Derek Jeter isn't going to walk through that door. Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams aren't going to walk through that door. And if they did... Well, they're still a very good team, obviously, illustrated by being 13 games over .500. They beat Tampa Bay last night. Before that they won two out of three games in September series against the Rangers, the Orioles and the Red Sox (technology and all). Detroit Tigers (September 21-24 (away), September 29-October 1 (Target Field): The Twins and Tigers will play seven times down the stretch. That should be a good thing for the Twins. The Tigers are currently 60-83 and challenging the Chicago White Sox for the cellar in the AL Central. Of course, the White Sox were trying to be bad this year (acquiring tons of top prospects along the way). The Tigers have traded some of their players, like JD Martinez and more recently, Justin Verlander. Victor Martinez is out for the year. These can be tough games though. This month, the Tigers have lost all five games they've played against Cleveland, and by a combined score of 5-40. They lost two out of three to Toronto this weekend, but before that, they won two out of three against the Royals. Cleveland (September 26-28): I mean... wow! They are now 88-56 on the season and currently have won 19 games in a row, one short of the record. They are 13.5 games ahead of the Twins. Their Magic Number to win the division is down to six. It is very likely that they will clinch the division this sometime this weekend which will make these late-season games against the Twins pretty meaningless, but they are very likely to be very meaningful for the Twins. In this 19-game winning steak, they are 5-0 against Detroit, 3-0 against Baltimore, 4-0 against the White Sox, 3-0 against the Royals, 3-0 against the Yankees, and 1-0 against the Red Sox. Their last loss came to the Red Sox on August 23rd. So there you have it, the schedule the rest of the way for the Twins. Here is a quick look at the current standings in the American League Wild Card: Here are the upcoming schedules for the Twins Wild Card competition: Los Angeles Angels (19 games) 3 vs Houston 3 vs Texas 3 vs Cleveland 3 @ Houston 4 @ Chicago White Sox 3 vs Seattle Texas Rangers (19 games) 3 vs Seattle 3 @ Angels 3 @ Seattle 3 @ Oakland 3 vs Houston 4 vs Oakland Kansas City Royals (19 games) 2 vs White Sox 4 @ Cleveland 3 @ Toronto 3 @ White Sox 1 @ NY Yankees 3 vs Detroit 3 vs Arizona Seattle Mariners (18 games) 3 @ Texas 3 @ Houston 3 vs Texas 3 vs Cleveland 3 @ Oakland 3 @ Angels Baltimore Orioles (18 games) 2 @ Toronto 4 @ NY Yankees 3 vs Boston 4 vs Tampa Bay 2 @ Pittsburgh 3 @ Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays (17 games) 2 vs NY Yankees 3 vs Boston 2 vs Cubs 4 @ Baltimore 3 @ NY Yankees 3 vs Baltimore There you have it. It's going to be a fun, interesting final three weeks... Click here to view the article
  21. The Twins have just one off-day (on Monday, September 25th) remaining. Other than that, it's full-steam ahead toward the regular season's finish line. There remain high hopes among players and fans alike that the season will continue beyond the regular season's final regularly scheduled day (Sunday, October 1st). The opponents over the final 19 games comprise an interesting mix of teams. There are a couple of teams playing out the string. There is one team that pretty much never loses. And there is one team that the Twins have some hopes of catching before the end of the season, likely in an attempt to get to play them one more time. Here is a quick look at the remaining opponents on the Twins: San Diego Padres (September 12-13): The Twins played two games in San Diego earlier in the season, and now they will play their final interleague games, starting tonight. The Padres are 65-79 on the season. However, the team just came off of a series in which they won two out of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The weekend before, they won three out of four against the Los Angeles Dodgers, starting their losing streak. In between, they lost three out of four to the St. Louis Cardinals. Toronto Blue Jays (September 14-17): The Twins will play four games at home this weekend against the Blue Jays, a team that has had their number in recent years, but the Twins won two out of three in Toronto in late August. The Blue Jays beat Baltimore on Monday, and before that they won two out of three against the Tigers. Before that, they lost two out of three to the Red Sox. New York Yankees (September 18-20): The Twins will travel to the Bronx to take on the team they are chasing for the top wild card position. They are currently four games behind the Yankees for that spot, but that could be different in a week. This is a good Yankees team, but it isn't your older brother's Yankees. Derek Jeter isn't going to walk through that door. Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams aren't going to walk through that door. And if they did... Well, they're still a very good team, obviously, illustrated by being 13 games over .500. They beat Tampa Bay last night. Before that they won two out of three games in September series against the Rangers, the Orioles and the Red Sox (technology and all). Detroit Tigers (September 21-24 (away), September 29-October 1 (Target Field): The Twins and Tigers will play seven times down the stretch. That should be a good thing for the Twins. The Tigers are currently 60-83 and challenging the Chicago White Sox for the cellar in the AL Central. Of course, the White Sox were trying to be bad this year (acquiring tons of top prospects along the way). The Tigers have traded some of their players, like JD Martinez and more recently, Justin Verlander. Victor Martinez is out for the year. These can be tough games though. This month, the Tigers have lost all five games they've played against Cleveland, and by a combined score of 5-40. They lost two out of three to Toronto this weekend, but before that, they won two out of three against the Royals. Cleveland (September 26-28): I mean... wow! They are now 88-56 on the season and currently have won 19 games in a row, one short of the record. They are 13.5 games ahead of the Twins. Their Magic Number to win the division is down to six. It is very likely that they will clinch the division this sometime this weekend which will make these late-season games against the Twins pretty meaningless, but they are very likely to be very meaningful for the Twins. In this 19-game winning steak, they are 5-0 against Detroit, 3-0 against Baltimore, 4-0 against the White Sox, 3-0 against the Royals, 3-0 against the Yankees, and 1-0 against the Red Sox. Their last loss came to the Red Sox on August 23rd. So there you have it, the schedule the rest of the way for the Twins. Here is a quick look at the current standings in the American League Wild Card: Here are the upcoming schedules for the Twins Wild Card competition: Los Angeles Angels (19 games) 3 vs Houston 3 vs Texas 3 vs Cleveland 3 @ Houston 4 @ Chicago White Sox 3 vs Seattle Texas Rangers (19 games) 3 vs Seattle 3 @ Angels 3 @ Seattle 3 @ Oakland 3 vs Houston 4 vs Oakland Kansas City Royals (19 games) 2 vs White Sox 4 @ Cleveland 3 @ Toronto 3 @ White Sox 1 @ NY Yankees 3 vs Detroit 3 vs Arizona Seattle Mariners (18 games) 3 @ Texas 3 @ Houston 3 vs Texas 3 vs Cleveland 3 @ Oakland 3 @ Angels Baltimore Orioles (18 games) 2 @ Toronto 4 @ NY Yankees 3 vs Boston 4 vs Tampa Bay 2 @ Pittsburgh 3 @ Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays (17 games) 2 vs NY Yankees 3 vs Boston 2 vs Cubs 4 @ Baltimore 3 @ NY Yankees 3 vs Baltimore There you have it. It's going to be a fun, interesting final three weeks...
  22. Swings dictate the outcome of virtually every game. That was no exception when the Kansas City Royals beat the Minnesota Twins 5-4 at Target Field to take a 2-1 series victory and again move onto the brink of .500 for the season at 67-68. However, in this case, it was two swings in the same plate appearance that sent the Twins to defeat — their 65th of the season — and, at the close of business Sunday, prevented them from expanding their 1.5-game lead on the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles for the second Wild Card spot. The Twins took a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the fifth, handed it back with two runs in the top of the sixth and again took it back with two runs in their half of the inning. With two outs, a 1-2 count and his team clinging to a 4-3 lead, reliever Alan Busenitz delivered a breaking ball well out of the strike zone to Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain. We can be sure he didn’t take a full swing, but all hell broke loose when home plate umpire Marty Foster appealed to first base umpire Mike Muchlinski, who ruled Cain didn’t even take a half-swing. Twins manager Paul Molitor immediately sprang to the top step of the dugout, and began gesturing demonstrably toward Foster, who threw the skipper out with the fuse of a discount firecracker. Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read this article in full.
  23. The Minnesota Twins beat the Kansas City Royals 17-0 on Saturday night at Target Field to even the series heading into Sunday’s rubber game, and it wasn’t all Onelki Garcia’s fault. He didn’t give Nate Karns thoracic outlet syndrome. He didn’t impinge Danny Duffy’s elbow or pass out while intoxicated in a Burger King parking lot. He also didn’t purchase his own plane ticket to Minneapolis after posting a 5.04 ERA at Triple-A Omaha, with a 1.55 WHIP and nearly four walks per nine innings. But when Garcia took the mound at Target Field, he was in trouble from the word “go.” He threw just 23 pitches, but by the time he was done, the Twins had scored four runs and made just one out. For an offense that has had trouble hitting lefties all season long, the Twins wasted little time jumping the 28-year-old Cuban, who had made just four previous appearances in the big leagues which had gone much like this one (9.00 ERA, 2.43 WHIP). Brian Dozier fell behind 0-2 and coaxed a walk to lead off the first. Joe Mauer followed with a booming double to center. Byron Buxton — in his return to the lineup — hit a stand-up triple to the gap in right-center, and just 12 pitches into the game, the Twins had a 2-0 lead and were primed for more. Jorge Polanco followed with a booming double to the other gap, and came home to score on a Mitch Garver single to left one batter later to chase Garcia from the game. Please click through to Zone Coverage here for the full story.
  24. “The Twins just won’t go away. They could lose 10-0, but they just won’t quit,” said Casey Stern on Sirius/XM’s Inside Pitch show on Friday afternoon. It was almost prophetic, as the Minnesota Twins went from winning in the most improbable way on Thursday afternoon to nearly repeating it against the Kansas City Royals on Friday night in a 7-6 loss at Target Field. The Twins scored two runs and had the bases loaded with two outs in the ninth against Royals closer Kelvin Herrera, but could not close the deal for a second walk-off win in a row. “It was a good fight,” said manager Paul Molitor. “We hung in there until the last round and made it interesting. We were one little knock away. It’s good to see that.” In fact, Herrera wasn’t even there for the finish. He left with lower forearm tightness, leaving Scott Alexander to get his second save of the season. Alexander walked Jorge Polanco -- after inheriting a 3-0 count against the switch hitter -- but got Eddie Rosario on a fastball to dance out of danger and get the Royals to within a game of .500 at 66-67. The win moved the Royals to within 3.5 games of the second Wild Card spot -- currently occupied by the Twins -- though they still have five teams in front of them or tied with them in what’s bound to be a wild September finish. The Twins managed to hold on to their 1.5-game lead over the Los Angeles Angels, who fell to the Texas Rangers, 10-9. Texas is now 67-67, and three games behind the Twins. Dillon Gee got the ball for the Twins, but did not get out of the third inning as he allowed five earned runs on six hits with a pair of strikeouts and three walks. Former teammate Mike Moustakas dealt the crushing blow, drilling a three-run home run to give the Royals a 5-2 lead. It’s not unreasonable to expect that Aaron Slegers -- who picked up his 15th win for Rochester on Friday night -- may get the call to start in this spot in the rotation next time around, as Molitor was noncommittal about whether Gee would make his next start. The Royals scored five runs in the third to take the lead after Polanco gave the Twins a 2-0 lead on his 10th home run of the season against Royals starter Jason Hammel. Polanco came into the season with just four career home runs in 290 plate appearances, and has now reached double digits in 427 trips to the plate this season. Polanco also became the seventh Twin with at least 10 home runs this season. Please click through to Zone Coverage to see this entire story here.
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