Search the Community

For whatever reason, it continues to get thrown out there that the Twins should explore trading Carlos Correa. While he is signed to a three-year contract, his opt-outs have always effectively made the deal a one-year pact. If they do want to move him at the deadline, what type of value are we actually talking about? First and foremost, let’s get this out there. The idea of dealing one of your top two players while leading the division seems asinine in and of itself, regardless of the tenure Carlos Correa was going to have with the Twins, Minnesota was able to bring him through a perfect set of circumstances, and he immediately makes their chances to win in the postseason this year that much better. Bad teams look to sign veterans on expiring deals in order to flip them for prospects. Minnesota is not a bad team, Correa’s contract is not a traditional one-year deal, and the chief purpose of bringing him in was always to win. Ok, now, let’s go down the rabbit hole of actually dealing him. The only reason to do this would be for Minnesota to recoup more future value than the absence of Correa would provide. However, given their positioning for the current postseason, they’d need to keep a similar level of overall talent on the big league roster. That means Minnesota’s front office would be hard-pressed to explain dealing Correa for a package filled with future prospects. There would have to be a current major-league asset included, and that would likely water down the overall value. Then there’s the reality that the Twins are trying to replace a guy that’s consistently put up at least 3.0 fWAR on an annual basis, and is again angling to do that. Of the more than 1,500 players to appear at the major-league level last season, 64 of them posted a 3.0 fWAR or better (roughly 4%). To summarize, a player worth 3.0 fWAR in any given season is an incredibly valuable asset. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were both considered uber prospects for the Twins in their time. Buxton has surpassed 3.0 fWAR in half of his eight big league seasons while Sano has never done so and has been worth a total of just 8.4 fWAR across eight seasons. Trying to nail a prospect, even the best ones, is an inexact science and could leave any potential return feeling light for years down the road. Looking at Baseball Trade Values, Correa himself is also not some juggernaut in terms of expected value. The simulator puts him at 15.4 at the median, which ranks just above prospect Spencer Steer’s 14. By comparison, the Nationals Juan Soto is at 176.8 as a median trade value. Getting a prospect like Yankees Anthony Volpe would require something like 52.6 in trade value, and even a big league ace in Luis Castillo would require something like 41.2 in median trade value. What we’re getting at here is that while Correa is ridiculously talented, and potentially one of the best players that could be had, his value is held down in being a current rental for any acquiring team as well. Although a new organization would possess exclusive negotiating rights to a new deal, Correa would still be looking for the long-term payday that takes him at least through his age 37 or 38 season. Arguably the best way to drive his price up is by finding multiple bidders on the open market. Whether a team believes they can sign him or not, they’d need some sort of guarantee from Scott Boras (unlikely) before giving up value assuming the player is more than a two or three-month hired assassin. All of this continues to turn back to the Twins. There are very few ways that dealing Carlos Correa would make them better immediately. The likelihood that dealing him makes them better in the long run is bleak as well. Sure, if he leaves, they lose him for nothing, but it was always assumed this was a one-year thing in which he could contribute during a postseason run. Why would you embark on that path at the beginning, and then deviate from it when it’s going so well? View full article

Minnesota locked up Byron Buxton to a long-term deal this winter, and it looks like the Twins made a brilliant investment. After a torrid start to the season, is he in the conversation to be baseball's best player? Fans have seen this game changing ability before from Byron Buxton. Last April, he started hot in the season's first month as he hit .427/.466/.897 (1.363) with eight doubles and eight home runs in 18 games. MLB named Buxton the American League Player of the Month, and he had arguably the best offensive month in team history. It was hard to imagine him playing at a higher level, and then the 2022 season began. Over the weekend, Buxton showed his value across multiple games, including some dramatic moments. On Saturday, he went 4-for-4 and reached base in all five plate appearances as the Twins won a blowout. Sunday's game was a nail-biter, and Buxton left the fans happy as he tied the game with a home run in the 7th before a massive three-run walk-off shot in extra-innings. One weekend series doesn't qualify someone to be baseball's best player, but plenty of other signs point to Buxton's greatness. His six home runs tie him for the MLB lead, and he has over 20 fewer at-bats than the other players at the top. His 1.361 OPS would lead all of baseball by close to 200 points, but he doesn't have enough plate appearances to appear on the leaderboard. Baseball's leaders in slugging percentage are tied at .727, but Buxton's OPS is .946 through Sunday's game. At the season's start, MLB Network counted down baseball's top-100 players right now. Buxton ranked as baseball's 39th best player on that countdown, a 52-spot jump from the beginning of the 2021 season. At that time, he was directly behind players like Nick Castellanos, Shane Bieber, and Brandon Woodruff. With his start to the season, he has to move up the list, but would it be enough to get to the top? Players at the top of the list include multiple former MVPs and other budding superstars. Shohei Ohtani, the reigning AL MVP, is coming off a season where he did amazing things as a two-way player. Mike Trout is widely considered the best player of this generation and a perennial MVP candidate. Bryce Harper is the reigning NL MVP, and he continues to live up to the hype surrounding him as an amateur. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto are two of the other highly ranked players that have achieved a lot at a young age. So far this season, many of these top players haven't been able to do what Buxton has done on the field. Ohtani is hitting .206/.265/.397 (.662), and he's posted a 4.40 ERA in three starts. Trout was limited to 36 games last season, but he is back to his old ways so far in 2022. Out of qualified players, he leads the AL in OPS and SLG. Harper has posted an OPS of over 1.000 in his two MVP seasons, but this year he has a .766 OPS while still leading the NL in runs. As expected, Soto leads baseball in walks and gets on base nearly 43% of the time. All of these players are great, but none may be able to impact the game quite like Buxton. At this early juncture, Trout is the lone top player producing at his expected level. Other players off to hot starts include Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, and Wander Franco. There is a lot of season left to separate one player from another, but it's clear that Buxton is playing at an otherworldly level. Do you think he is baseball's best player? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Now just a week from Opening Day most Major League Baseball clubs have their 40 man rosters set and are working through their final cuts before kicking off the regular season. Although we don’t have Opening Day on its original scheduled time, a full 162-game season following the lockout is as good as it gets. The Atlanta Braves are looking to repeat as World Series Champions, but they will be doing so with some new faces after letting franchise favorite Freddie Freeman walk. The American League will certainly be out to recapture the trophy, and there’s a ton of new talent being thrust into the highest level. You can look back at my 2021 picks here. A dark horse MVP candidate wound up taking the crown, and it was good to see Bryce Harper pick up his second iteration of that award. Here’s what I have for 2022. MVP: American League – Luis Robert (Dark Horse Byron Buxton) National League – Juan Soto (Dark Horse Manny Machado) Maybe Robert is a post-hype type player, but he’s far too much of an afterthought with just two seasons in the big leagues. Robert played just 68 games last year for the White Sox, but the 24-year-old posted a .946 OPS. He has the complete package of speed, power, and athleticism to make an impact all over the diamond. The strikeout rates are still ugly, but he makes enough hard hit contact to generate a strong average. Chicago should again be good, and that puts him in a good spot. Byron Buxton is going to be healthy this year if I have to manifest it into existence. Should that happen, he’ll find himself squarely in the conversation. He began 2021 on a ridiculous pace and was only overshadowed by Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Betting on himself in his new extension, that paying off early would be nice to see. On the National League side it really feels like the MVP is Juan Soto’s to lose. He’s an otherworldly talent that hits for average and power while having a great eye. I don’t think the Nationals are going to be very good this season, but if Nelson Cruz has any positive impact on the youngster allowing him to take his game up a notch, that’s pretty scary. It’d also be somewhat of a nice development to see Manny Machado step up in a big way for the Padres with Fernando Tatis Jr. out to start the season. He’s been close to an MVP award previously, and maybe this winds up being the year. Cy Young: American League – Shohei Ohtani (Dark Horse Luis Severino) National League – Max Scherzer (Dark Horse Logan Webb) If there’s a way to follow up an MVP award after putting up the best individual season baseball has ever seen, Shohei Ohtani could grab a Cy Young as an encore. The greatest thing working against him will always be the amount of starts he makes. That said, another year of learning the league, I think this could be his true breakout on the mound. Another step forward and he’ll be in the conversation with Gerrit Cole as the best pitcher in the American League. Speaking of Cole, his teammate Luis Severino looked to have elite stuff prior to dealing with injuries since 2019. If he’s at all healthy, I wouldn’t be shocked to see that play again. Max Scherzer jumps teams within the division, but now he’s in a place that’s willing to spend big. Paired with Jacob deGrom, the Mets have the best one-two punch in baseball. New York should be a very good team, and those two arms are going to do the heavy lifting. It’s been a few years since Scherzer won a Cy Young, and maybe he tired a bit in the postseason last year, but I think he shows well for his new club. San Francisco Giants star Logan Webb is an intriguing choice here. He’s not far down the list of odds, but may be somewhat of an afterthought. The Giants probably won’t be as good this season, but Webb could take another step forward as he cements himself as a legitimate ace. His FIP was sub 3.00 last season and the strikeout numbers are there. It wouldn’t shock me if he puts up a head-turning performance. Rookie of the Year: American League – Bobby Witt Jr. (Dark Horse Julio Rodriguez) National League – Hunter Greene (Dark Horse Max Meyer) It’s hard to go against the Royals superstar prospect Bobby Witt Jr. He’s going to make the Opening Day roster and looks like someone that should be an impact player from day one. Kansas City won’t be good, but they shouldn’t be terrible either. The highlight reel play on both sides of the ball are impressive, and he should be fun to watch from within the division. Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez may also be in the conversation, but that will largely depend on how much runway he’s given this season. Once considered among the best draft prospects ever, Hunter Greene’s debut should finally come in 2022. The Reds rotation has arms that need to still be moved, but Greene should see plenty of action for a team that’s clearly not trying. His stuff is going to play, and the triple-digit fastball is going to be fun to watch. If the Marlins promote Max Meyer with any amount of longevity destined for this season, he too could be in the running. Postseason: American League – Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays, Twins National League – Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies ALCS – Blue Jays over Rays NLCS – Phillies over Braves World Series – Phillies over Blue Jays Toronto had a stellar offseason adding Kevin Gausman and Matt Chapman. Already having a strong rotation and top talents like Jose Berrios and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it’s hard not to see them as the juggernaut in a competitive American League East. They picked up depth talents as well, and we’re already trending towards being among the best teams in baseball. I’d be far from surprised if they finish with the best record in the American League. On the other side, I think the Phillies give themselves a nice chance to play spoiler as somewhat of an underdog. The Braves and Mets are seen as the best in the division, but Philadelphia shouldn’t be far behind. Castellanos and Schwarber are two big bats, and the addition of the designated hitter hides the latter from playing the field. Bryce Harper is still the reigning MVP winner, and adding what they did to a formerly bad bullpen should help a lot. We’re so close to regular season action in a season that should bring the return of normalcy. It’s time to settle in for the fun. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz