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Two teams sit atop respective central divisions, both composed of a patchwork of superstars and key role players. With familiar faces and up-and-coming all-stars, it's a fun series for fans to familiarize themselves with players both home and away. Few things were nearly unanimous in the pre-season predictions, but among them was which team perched atop the AL Central was selected by nearly everyone to win the division. Appropriately black and white. Stated plainly. The consensus pick: the Chicago White Sox. The halfway point of the 2022 has proven the paradoxical axiom of baseball, which is that despite every metric and system built to hone prediction, there are no truths in this wild and beautiful game. We've asked Tom Ciaccio, who writes up series previews for our sister site, Brewer Fanatic, to give us a preview of the two-game Brewers series. Meanwhile, we had John Bonnes do the same over on our sister site. If you would like to see that, click here. Despite their differences, these fan bases have at least one thing in common: they both really dislike the respective Chicago-based teams. Sitting in sole possession of both first place and the only winning record in the division are the Minnesota Twins. Contending against them in a brief two-game series is the team leading the other league’s central division, the Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams have solidified themselves as tough customers built on atypical means. The Brewers strength is run prevention led by a multi-ace rotation, where the Twins are arguably more well-rounded, anchored by elite players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa and supplemented by revitalized talents like Sonny Gray and Chris Archer. The two-game interleague matchup often evokes a lower stakes and slightly deflated feeling, but these two teams are charismatic baseball enigmas who are holding fast atop their divisions. While attention normally gravitates toward the titans on the coasts, they should be fixed on the flyovers for this intriguing series. Let’s check out the match-ups. Tuesday July 12th Jason Alexander (2-1 4.75 ERA) Josh Winder (4-2 3.12 ERA) 29-year-old rookie Jason Alexander has had an unorthodox path to the bigs and is now enduring a fittingly wonky beginning of his career. After a decent enough job starting as a fill-in piece for a banged up Brewers rotation he was shifted back to the bullpen. Working in relief has not been a strong spot for Alexander in his brief sample, giving up three earned runs in 2.1 innings over two showings. With Adrian Houser going down with an elbow injury, Alexander will have another chance to show what he can do on the mound. One patchwork rookie starter deserves another, and addressing the same dearth of seasoned starting pitchers is Josh Winder . Unlike the Brewers, the Twins didn’t start the season from a particularly enviable level of depth. That Winder would end up in the rotation isn’t particularly surprising, but the measure of his success thus far might be. In 40 innings pitched he’s managed a 3.12 ERA, and even with his FIP almost a full point higher (4.09 to be precise), it still can’t be argued that Winder’s sample to this point is an impressive one. Wednesday July 13th Aaron Ashby (2-6 4.52 ERA) Joe Ryan (6-3 3.09 ERA) After a promising beginning to his 2022 campaign, Aaron Ashby hit a long skid of middling to bad performances before finally notching another win against the Pirates on Friday. Notching a W against the lowly Pirates is a fraught distinction unto itself, and that Ashby still surrendered two runs over five IP in this start doesn’t alleviate concerns surrounding his trajectory. This all being said, the resume for Ashby gives a lot of reason to believe. Capitalizing on a five pitch repertoire, Ashby has managed an astonishing 10.75 K/9. The issue lies in that when Ashby isn’t fooling hitters, he’s getting hit hard by them. If he’s going to succeed against a savvy hitting Twins team, he’ll need to be strategic, deliberate and economical. A cliche in the baseball world repeated so enthusiastically that it’s nearly axiom-status is that when the Rays make a trade, the Rays win that trade. It’s still early in his career, but 26-year-old righty Joe Ryan is looking to break that mold. Shipped over to Minnesota with prospect Drew Strotman for Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher, Ryan has put together a very solid rookie campaign. In just under a hundred combined IP, Ryan has authored a 3.35 ERA with a FIP of 3.86, corroborating the potential of nascent excellence. Players To Watch Josh Hader : In the event that the Brewers have a late game lead and their feared closer emerges from the pen, it may not spell certain doom for the Twinkies. In Hader-adjusted terms, the All-Star and arguably best closer in baseball has been having a rough go of it. In his latest appearance, Hader gave up two hits and a walk and incurred an earned run against the Pirates in what would ultimately be a successful save. In the series prior to that one, Seiya Suzuki walked off against Hader on an inside-the-park home run. Adding an extra level of mystique to Hader is that there are rumors that the Brewers are at the very least willing to hear offers for the now four-time All-Star. Keston Hiura : After a promising 2019 rookie campaign, Hiura’s value as a player slipped the following year and disintegrated into unsustainability after that. At the end of his 2021 season, Hiura had an abysmal WOBA of .251, and with negative UZR, it almost felt time to ask if the once promising rookie would ever be able to stay in the bigs. As of late, the sudden utility product has found new value for the Brewers. Moving from second to left field, Hiura has flashed some impressive leather. At the plate, the strikeouts are worse than they’ve ever been, but the OPS+ for 2022 is 127, noteworthy because it’s 22 points above his career average. If Hiura can find his form again, he will be a pivotal difference maker for the Brewers this year and for years to come. Luis Arraez : When the Twins extended Buxton and signed Correa, it probably wouldn’t be predicted that by the middle of the 2022 season Twins second basemen Arraez would lead the team in WAR. Not only that, but he’s leading the majors in batting average, adding to the motif that the Twins are unpredictable and, as importantly, extremely fun. Arraez’ crescendo towards excellence doesn’t look like a fluke, and while he’s no stranger to Twins fans, it’s worth appreciating the development of a potential superstar. Predictions Assessing the teams as a whole would make things feel a lot more competitive, but the fact that the Twins are hosting the Brewers right as the two biggest question marks in their rotation are set to pitch doesn’t bode well for the Crew. I think the Twins grab at least one win here, but a sweep in the brief series feels perfectly reasonable. View full article

Let’s face it, trading for a high-leverage reliever is risky business. Not to mention, it comes with a high price tag. The trade rumors have swirled for some time in Milwaukee regarding Brewers closer Josh Hader. Earlier in the week, MLB Network discussed a fake trade in which the Minnesota Twins would send Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers and Brent Rooker to the Brewers for Hader. A Hader trade would require quite the return or as an executive told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic a “bananas price.” The 2020 trade deadline is Monday and from the Rosenthal report it wouldn’t be surprise to see the Brewers trade some bullpen arms. If the team did in fact trade Hader, who is under team control through 2023, past deadline deals have shown a package of Lewis, Jeffers and Rooker may be bananas but not unrealistic. If Hader was a rental and set to become a free agent this winter, then Jeffers and Rooker at the very least might still be the asking price for Hader. Just last season the Brewers traded top-10 prospect Mauricio Duban to the San Francisco Giants for Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black. Furthermore, Pomeranz wasn’t a full-time reliever until acquired by the Brewers. It says a lot about how much value the team with the reliever can get from another. For a player who pitches at most every other day, the risk isn’t always worth it. Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps Since 2010, the Twins have made traded for four relievers before the July deadline and have traded one away. Somehow it’s this one that fans talk about the most. The Twins went for it in 2010 and acquired Capps, a closer who rarely walked anyone, to help with its playoff push. To his credit, Capps allowed six earned runs and struck out 21 in 27 innings as the Twins closer. Unfortunately for Capps though, the next two seasons were marred with injuries and the lack of strikeout ability caught up to him. Ultimately, both caused his downfall. In 2011 and 2012, Capps allowed 43 earned runs, gave up 15 home runs and struck out just 52 in a combined 95 innings of work. Ramos had just seven games to his name in the big leagues when the Twins traded him to the Washington Nationals. He was originally thought to be the heir to Joe Mauer. In 2011, Ramos was named to Baseball America Major League All-Rookie Team. Based on what Ramos has done since the trade and the collapse of Capps, it’s why the trade has such a negative association. Yet, for the 2010 season, it did work. Chih-Wei Hu for Kevin Jepson The playoff hopes the Twins had and the aftermath of this trade arguably could be worse than the Capps deal. Jepsen, who had control issues in the past, actually helped the Twins bullpen. His debut did not go well though. He walked the first two batters he faced, threw a wild pitch, and then struck out Nelson Cruz. He was replaced after that, but both batters he walked later came around to score in what was a 3-run 11th inning for the Mariners. OK, first impression aside, Jepsen turned it around. In his next 15 1/3 innings, he struck out 13, walked three, allowed seven hits and no runs. Altogether, Jepsen was good with the Twins. He kept his walks to a minimum (seven in 28 innings) while opponents were batting .176. Even though Jepsen wasn’t an elite reliever, the Twins gave up Hu. He started the season ranked 24 in the Twins prospect list and ended the season at 15 in the Rays system. Despite Jepsen’s performance, which was much better than anticipated, the Twins missed the playoffs. He pitched terrible in 2016, battled injuries, then released in July with a .333 batting average against. For a pitcher with known control problems, giving up a top-30 prospect stings a little. Especially when the pitcher the Twins traded for didn’t even spend a full calendar year with the team. Lewin Diaz for Sergio Romo It would be extremely hard to find someone who wouldn’t pull the trigger on this trade. In hindsight, it still is benefitting the Twins. Romo gave the Twins bullpen some help in the late innings. He allowed only eight runs in 22 2/3 innings and struck out 27. His attitude, along with how he pitched, is why the Twins resigned for 2020. Diaz, who was quickly gaining attention in the Twins system, wasn’t ranked in the top-30 to start the season but by season’s end ranked 12 among Marlins prospects. Again, all in hindsight, this trade seems to have benefitted the Twins. However, they did give up a top-20 prospect for what was at the time, a 36-year-old rental. Jaylin Davis for Sam Dyson All things considered, Dyson was having a terrific 2019 with the Giants. Opponents were hitting .213 against him. He was pitching effectively late in games and would have strengthened any team’s bullpen. The Twins traded three players, the main piece being Davis, to get Dyson. Right away there were issues. It seemed as though Dyson was pitching hurt and after allowing nine earned runs in 11 1/3 innings, he had surgery. He hasn’t pitched since. Davis, on the other hand, didn’t rank in the top-30 prospects with the Giants in 2019. This season he was ranked 13. Kei-Wei Tang, another prospect in the trade, started the season ranked 22. Chalk this one up as a trade that didn’t go well given the cost to get Dyson and the results of the trade. What's left to do As exhausting as it may be to read, or skim, through it all, it takes top-30 prospects to get quality relief pitching before the deadline. It took two top-30 prospects, Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino, for the Houston Astros to land Ryan Pressly in 2018. Hader is by far one of the best in the game currently and would require a massive return package. The Twins could look for cheaper options. Heck, the Brewers could be a trade partner on that front with left-handed Alex Claudio. Or the Twins could go a different route and pursue a major league ready, but still a work-in-progress pitcher. Should the Twins go after a reliever; past trades have shown it takes “more” than what might be perceived to acquire a reliever in the midst of a good season. The only thing left to determine is if there are bargain deals elsewhere, or the team control of someone like Hader is worth trading away top prospects.