Search the Community

Minnesota's front office continues to collect players with injury concerns. Will these distressed assets come back to haunt the Twins? Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have followed different trends since taking the Twins' front office reins. Those trends include the types of players they target in the draft process, using a patient approach in the offseason, and acquiring players that some may consider distressed assets. Some distressed assets have provided value for the Twins, but others have been unmitigated disasters. Can the Twins find a way to be successful while following this player acquisition trend? Reasons for this Trend The current front office has placed a premium value on acquiring players on good contracts or with multiple years of team control. There is risk involved with long-term deals for free-agent players, and the Twins typically aren't swimming in the deep end of the free-agent market. However, there have been multiple instances when a player's value had dropped enough that the Twins were comfortable offering multi-year deals. Minnesota was willing to make the highest offer because the front office felt the player would provide enough value in the contract's early years to make up for the back end. On the pitching side, Minnesota has recently traded for multiple arms, and there have been injury concerns with some of those acquisitions. Trading for any pitching asset comes with some level of trepidation. Last season, Twins fans clamored for the team to acquire Frankie Montas, but he was traded to the Yankees and will start the 2023 season on the injured list because of a shoulder injury. Only some pitchers can perform at a high level after a trade. Also, the Twins value the prospects this regime has accumulated, so they have shown a hesitancy to deal top prospects for pitching assets. That made last year's trade deadline so intriguing because it looked like the front office was putting the team in the best position to win. Unfortunately, recent seasons haven't played out in the team's favor. Distressed Assets: Pitchers Sam Dyson was one of this front office's first significant trade deadline deals in 2019. His Twins' tenure was disastrous as he allowed nine earned runs in 11 1/3 innings while making multiple trips to the Injured List. Eventually, he revealed that he had been pitching through shoulder discomfort for multiple weeks. The Twins tried to investigate if the Giants knew anything about his injury before the trade. There were no signs of his injury or poor performance before the trade, so this deal looks like bad luck for the Twins. He hasn't pitched in professional baseball since 2019 because of sexual assault allegations and a suspension. Leading into the 2020 season, the Twins traded for Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers. Los Angeles expressed concerns about Maeda's elbow when he initially signed in 2016, and that's why he signed an incentive-laden contract. He pitched nearly 590 innings with the Dodgers before being traded and showed no signs of his elbow being an issue. His first season in Minnesota couldn't have gone much better, as he posted a 2.70 ERA while leading baseball with a 0.75 WHIP. Maeda's performance declined in 2021, forcing him to undergo Tommy John surgery. He pitched over 760 big-league innings before his elbow gave out, so this wasn't a red flag before the trade. Minnesota recently finished an extension with Chris Paddack to keep him with the organization through the 2025 season and delay free agency by one year. The Twins acquired Paddack leading into the 2022 season after he dealt with a sprained UCL at the end of the 2021 season. He pitched well in limited action last season, and the Twins are hoping he can return in 2023 following his second Tommy John surgery. His extension gives the Twins some cost certainty and has the potential for Paddack to provide the team upside over the next three seasons. Tyler Mahle was arguably the Twins' most prominent trade deadline acquisition in 2022. The front office attempted to add a playoff-caliber starter to the rotation, but it came at a cost. Shortly before the trade, Mahle missed time with a shoulder injury, and those issues continued with the Twins. He couldn't help the team down the stretch, and now there are questions about his health entering the 2023 campaign. Mahle is a free agent at season's end, and the Twins hope his off-season regime has built up his shoulder enough to provide value at the rotation's front end. Distressed Assets: Position Players Entering the 2020 season, the Twins planned to target free-agent starting pitching, but the market didn't work out in the club's favor. Instead, Josh Donaldson was still available because of lingering injury concerns and the fact that he was in his mid-30s. Minnesota hoped that Donaldson could be an asset to help push the team to postseason success. However, he didn't appear in either playoff game during his Twins tenure. Luckily, the Twins were able to trade Donaldson, which helped pave the way for signing Carlos Correa. Carlos Correa 's free agent journey has been well documented in recent weeks, but there's no question he remains with the Twins because of long-term health concerns. Minnesota offered a front-loaded contract that is very team friendly, but there are risks involved with any free-agent signing. Even Byron Buxton 's extension can be viewed as a distressed asset, because of his long-running injury concerns. The Twins' success is now tied to Correa and Buxton staying healthy. Minnesota's line-up should have two of baseball's best hitters if both players perform up to expectations. Are you concerned with Minnesota's trend of acquiring distressed assets? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins have prized depth on their roster and optionality in their processes. Their approach to MLB free agency has reflected that fact. Alas, that means they’re only doing half the job that a great front office must do in free agency, and it’s the less vital half. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports MLB free agency is really one name for two overlapping but distinct tasks. One of those is finding short-term answers to immediate problems. In this aspect, a front office needs to reinforce thin areas on their roster; balance the pursuit of upside with the necessity of setting a firm floor for a given roster spot; and husband their resources as closely as possible. They need to fill holes without leaving themselves ossified or cornered when the opportunity or the need to change tack arises. The other task that makes up free agency, though, is adding high-impact talent to the franchise on a long-term basis. This is talked about too rarely, but it’s crucial. That’s because, ultimately, having star-caliber players is a non-negotiable prerequisite for consistent contention. To longtime baseball fans, this can seem like the vapid talk of a cotton-headed basketball or football fan. No individual can have the same impact on a ball club as LeBron James can have on a basketball team, or even the impact that any of several good quarterbacks can have on their rosters. One of baseball’s beautiful characteristics is that depth will out, and that good teams are unavoidably reliant upon a broader base of contributors. Every roster spot matters, and stars can’t carry subpar fellows very far. The bottom 60 percent of a 26- and a 40-man roster needs to be full of guys who hew closer to average than to the replacement level, or else a team will stall out over the long season. True though that might be when it comes to analyzing a team based on its two or three best players, it fades into irrelevance if you judge a team by its seven or eight best. Good teams need above-average players—not a couple of them, but a cadre. It’s simple math, really. If you have that army of credible, almost-good players rounding out the bottom of the roster, you’ve set a floor somewhere between 70 and 75 wins. If the top handful of batters and pitchers are each just a win above average, though, you can’t push much past 85 wins. Teams with real chances of reaching and causing trouble in the postseason, and especially those who stand any chance of doing so multiple times in a span of a few years, need to have clear paths to 90 wins or more. A deeper dive into players who post a 4+ WAR tells why the Twins have been coming up short against the more elite teams in the American League, including in the postseason. But we reward our Caretakers with the meatier stories like this, since they’re the ones that support paying writers for a more thorough examination. If you would like to join them, you can read this story and also get other perks, like a free ticket to the Winter Meltdown, meet and greets, special recognition in the comments sections, and more exclusive in-depth explorations of Twins topics. Just sign up here. We would love to have you join the hundreds of people that value having Twins stories, rumors and conversation 365 days per year. Thank you for considering it. View full article

The Twins need to continue to add to the roster for 2023. Do any of these former Twins fit with the team’s future plans? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA TODAY Sports Many of the league’s top free agent options are officially signed, meaning teams must turn to trades to improve their teams. Minnesota has former players on rosters throughout baseball, but the following players have seen their names thrown around in the rumor mill. Not all of these players fit with Minnesota’s current roster construction, but some of the names have something to offer the 2023 Twins. Aaron Hicks, OF Hicks is owed roughly $30 million over the next three seasons, but his performance has significantly declined over the last four seasons. He averaged 48 games from 2019-2021 with a 103 OPS+. In 2022, he played 130 games and hit .216/.330/.313 (.642) with 19 extra-base hits. Defensively, Hicks has started to play less time in center field, which takes away some of his overall value. Twins Fit: Low. The Twins have better options at all three outfield positions. Josh Donaldson, 3B Last winter, Minnesota got out of the final two years (and $50M) of Donaldson’s four-year deal by trading him to the Yankees. Reports point to New York having a tough time finding a trade partner for Donaldson and Hicks. Last season, Donaldson had a below 100 OPS+ for the first time since 2012. He already turned 37 years old at the beginning of December, and he is likely on the backside of his career. Twins Fit: Low. The Twins were happy to get out of Donaldson’s contract. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS Kiner-Falefa’s Twins tenure was short-lived, but the organization was interested in him before the Donaldson trade. In 2022, he hit .261/.314/.327 (.642) while ranking 8th among AL shortstops in SABR’s Defensive Index. His defensive skills are what the Twins were interested in last year, but there are stronger defenders on the trade market. His Whiff% (99th percentile) and K% (92nd percentile) bring down an offensive profile that already includes limited power. Twins Fit: Medium. Minnesota could use more depth at shortstop, but he might not be an upgrade over Kyle Farmer. Liam Hendriks, RP Hendriks has been one of baseball’s best closers over the last four seasons. He’s under contract for $14.33 million next season, and his $15 million team option for 2024 becomes guaranteed if he is traded. The White Sox have discussed trading Hendriks with multiple teams, including the Mets. Plenty of teams will be interested in acquiring Hendriks, but it seems unlikely for Chicago to trade him in the division. Twins Fit: Medium. Paying Hendriks nearly $30 million over the next two seasons is a lot of money, but he’d significantly upgrade the team’s bullpen. Eduardo Escobar, UTL Until recently, the Mets had Escobar penciled in as their starting third baseman. However, Carlos Correa’s signing means Escobar lost his starting job. He is under contract for $9.5 million for 2023 with a $9 million option ($500,000 buyout) for 2024. In 136 games last season, he hit .240/.295/.430 (.726) with 26 doubles, four triples, and 20 home runs. He’s averaged a 108 OPS+ over the last two seasons, but he is closing in on his mid-30s. Twins Fit: Medium. Escobar was a joy when he was with the Twins, but the team doesn’t have a clear need for a utility player. Should the Twins try and trade for any of these former Twins? Are any of them a better fit than the others? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Carlos Correa's "super agent" Scott Boras described the Minnesota Twins as "fishing in the ocean" just a week before Correa signed a 13-year $350M deal with the San Francisco Giants. At the time, the Twins were in the middle of a heated bidding war for the superstar short stop. that saw them offer a franchise record 10-year $280M contract. As we know, the Twins were unwilling to get to the 13 year threshold that the Giants offered, and he will now assumingly play out the remainder of his career in the The Golden City. Some Twins fans immediately took to bashing the front office for their inability to give Correa whatever he wanted because he said he wanted to remain in Minnesota. Other fans were just excited that the Twins had seemingly taken a step up by offering such a lucrative contract, and were now big players in the free agent game. Fishing in the ocean. Fast forward just a few short days, and the Twins have finally began spending the surplus of money they had sitting unoccupied on the payroll. They started by signing Christian Vasquez, an elite defensive catcher who holds his own at the plate, to a 3-year $30M deal. They followed the Vasquez signing up by landing Joey Gallo, a former superstar with as much raw power as anyone in the league, to a 1-year $11M contract. This is clearly just the start of a Twins plan that is starting to formulate and fall into place, however, many Twins fans have voiced their displeasure with the team's lack of ability to reel in the big fish. Do these fans have a real gripe? Should the Twins be throwing around $200M contracts more frequently? The fun answer would be yes. It would be awesome to navigate an offseason and trade deadline with the same aggressiveness as the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, but is that the blueprint that the Twins should follow when their payroll sits right around $160M? I think the last five years have taught us that when it comes to winning a championship, there are many was to skin a cat, and maybe the Twins should shift their approach. 2020-2022 Offseasons The years 2020-2022 brought us some of the most exciting offseason moments we could have ever hoped for as Twins fans. Prior to the 2020 season, the Twins signed Josh Donaldson to a 4-year $92M contract, which was the richest contract they had ever given to a free agent to date. The Donaldson signing was one of the most exciting offseason moments of my Twins fandom. The Donaldson era on the field was one chock-full with injuries and disappointment. He was eventually dumped off on the Yankees in a trade for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez in order to get Donaldson's contract off the books. His former Twins teammates were rather vocal about how they felt about Donaldson in his time in Minnesota, and it wasn't good. The Twins avoided the disaster of living out his 4-year deal by giving him away to the Yankees, who have also had their fair share of issues with Donaldson. Donaldson's two year stint with the Twins could've left a bad taste in the Twins mouth when it came to signing big free agents, but it didn't, as made evident by excitement displayed by fans when the Twins made the biggest move in franchise history following the Donaldson trade. I remember waking up groggy eyed and looking at my phone when I saw the Minnesota Twins had signed Carlos Correa. Despite it being 6 a.m., I danced around my room screaming like an idiot until I lost my voice, got light headed, and decided to sit down. The Correa signing came out of no where, as there was never any reported interest between either party until the news broke that he was coming to Minnesota on a 3-year $105M deal that included opt out options after each of the first two seasons. Correa's time in Minnesota could not have been more different than Donaldson's. He was a fantastic leader and player, and left a very positive impact on the Twins. This is the reason they decided the 28-year-old was worth a 10-year $280M contract. Correa remained healthy and performed for much of the season, but he alone wasn't enough to make the Twins successful. As the players around Correa fell one by one to injury throughout the season, the Twins were forced to play a handful of players who were not Major League quality players. The season winded down to a disastrous end came and Correa opted out, leaving fans wondering what the Twins would do. In most Twins fans minds, after the last few offseasons, the only way to become a championship caliber team was to throw around as much cash as humanly possible and sign as many big named free agents as there were on the market. This is the exciting way to operate, but is it the best way for a mid-market team to go about their business? 2019 Offseason In 2018 the Twins went 78-84 and fired their manager Paul Moliter. They went into the 2018-2019 offseason with plenty of young talent on the roster, but also plenty of holes to fill. The Twins followed a different model in this particular winter than they have in the offseasons since. In this offseason, the Twins started by signing low to mid level free agents like CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Ehire Adrianza, and Martin Perez. The Twins made their first big move of the winter when they signed the 38-year-old home run slugging DH Nelson Cruz to a 1-year $12M contract. They followed it up by signing the former World Series Champion Marwin Gonzalez to a 2-year $21M deal. This offseason saw them sign mid level free agents to short term, low risk, high reward contracts. The result of this plan just so happened to be one of the most memorable seasons in Twins history. The 2019 "Bomba Squad" won 101 games and won the AL Central. The team was fun, exciting, and very deep. It was built with a strong emphasis on depth, developing their own young players, and bringing in veteran players who provided good leadership on short term deals. What's This Mean? Maybe nothing. It's a small sample size, but I can't help but feel that this offseason is shaping up very much like the one that led the Twins to an all-too-fun 101 win season. The 2023 Twins team already has a lot of talent, and most of that talent is rather youthful. They have pivoted from the large, flashy contracts, and have focused on short term deals that could end up paying off big time if they hit. Take Joey Gallo for example. If he reverts the the 2021 version of himself that contributed 4.7 Wins Above Replacement, they could have themselves a massive asset for a very manageable price. If he sucks, the Twins will wash their hands of him, and it's essentially no harm, no foul. The Twins front office has received a ton of criticism for the lack of moves so far this winter, but I refuse to overreact to an unfinished product. The moves are coming, and I believe the Twins will compete in 2023, pushing to win a very weak AL Central. The flashy moves the Twins have made the last few seasons have been fun. I will always get excited when I see a big name connected with the Twins. I will continue to lose my mind any time the Twins manage to bring one of those big fish to Minnesota. I'm not saying the Twins can't win by making these moves. My main point here is that the Twins have yet to find any success from signing star free agents to lucrative contracts. Instead of screaming at the top of our lungs to fire the whole front office, maybe we can take a step back and let the entirety of the offseason fall into place before we start criticizing. Let Falvey cook. Deep breaths. We've been here before. What are your thoughts on the offseason this far? What are your hopes for the future? Let me know, and as always, Go Twins!

By almost any standard other than the Minnesota Twins and their current front office, the newly minted three-year contract for catcher Christian Vázquez would not be all that significant or noteworthy. As it happens, their reported commitment of $30 million ranks as the third-largest for a free agent in six years since this front office took over. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine moved quickly after taking the reins in 2016, signing catcher Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5 million contract as their first move. It would be the new regime's largest commitment to a free agent until 2020, when they made waves by signing third baseman Josh Donaldson for four years and $92 million. An audacious move coming off a breakthrough season. Donaldson's deal nearly doubled the franchise record-holder for biggest free agent contract: Ervin Santana for four years and $52 million, almost eight years ago to the day (12/14/14). Donaldson's two-year tenure with the Twins was unfulfilling, and the team was happy to move on when they unloaded his remaining contract to New York this past February. They used the newfound payroll space to make an even bigger splash: signing Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105 million stunner. He opted out of that deal a few weeks ago, as expected. Which brings us to this week, where the Twins have agreed to terms with Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal worth $30 million over three years. With that, we've covered all of the biggest free agent commitments ever from this front office: Vazquez (#3) nests behind Correa (#1) and Donaldson (#2) as the heftiest contract in six offseasons, and – along with Castro – the only deals spanning three or more years. There are a few ways to react to this. The first, of course is: wow, that really puts the Twins' aversion to free agent spending in context. Their biggest splurges under this regime have been two solid yet unspectacular catchers, and two superstar infielders, whose contracts more or less melded into one. (Twins basically turned the last $52 million owed to Donaldson into $35 million for Correa.) Castro is, thus far, the only one of these players who actually played out at least three years of his contract as a Twin. Vázquez will presumably join him, bridging us to the other reaction: the front office must REALLY like Christian Vázquez. Clearly they are deeply uncomfortable with long-term contracts, especially for aging players. If they wanted to, the Twins could have certainly bided their time to wait out the remaining trade market, or turned their attention to another free agent around the middle tier. They passed up the opportunity to pursue a (likely cheaper) true platoon partner for Ryan Jeffers, such as Omar Narváez or Tucker Barnhardt, in order to aggressively acquire Vázquez – who was reportedly their #1 free agent catching target from the start. What do they like so much about the 32-year-old to make such a (relatively) big leap? Vázquez has a number of appealing qualities, one of which is pitch-framing – particularly high in the zone) – as Lucas Seehafer laid out in detail. There's also his relatively neutral platoon split, his strong throwing arm, and his reputed clubhouse presence. Beyond that, the Twins' willingness to pay a real premium for the backstop comes down to two core things: safety and experience. SAFETY This is the biggest factor without question, in my mind. Coming into this offseason, the catcher position was a glaring hole on an otherwise structurally sound roster. Dan Hayes writes in The Athletic that the team was "desperate to find a catcher in free agency." Vázquez has had an up-and-down career, with occasional solid offensive bursts counterbalanced by long unproductive stretches ... but he's been serviceable at worst. Even when his bat is amiss, he remains a steady defensive player and durable mainstay. He might arguably lack the upside of a Zunino or Narváez, but he's got a higher and sturdier floor. And that's what this move does: complete the front office's floor-raising setup for whatever is next. EXPERIENCE The Astros acquired Vázquez from Boston at the deadline this year, valuing him as a seasoned vet who could contribute during the stretch and into the playoffs. He played 41 games for Houston in August, September, and October, aiding their successful pursuit of a World Series championship. It was the second ring for Vázquez, who won another in Boston in 2018 and took part in a deep run with the Red Sox in 2021. For a Twins organization that was devoid of ANY meaningful big-league catching experience beyond Jeffers' 600 plate appearances ... it's easy to see why this track record would be very appealing. Now, the big remaining question is whether this front office is going to add another top contract to its modest historical ledger. Amazingly, Vázquez's $30 million contract has now entered their top three -- and the top six in franchise history, adding in Santana and Ricky Nolasco. If Vázquez remains on either of those lists by the time the offseason is over, it'll be hard to see how this winter would be viewed as a success. View full article

Last offseason the Twins made a shocking trade with the Yankees, parting with one of their highest paid players and their assumed future shortstop for a couple of pieces back. Now that we have a full season of data, it’s time to revisit. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins previous offseason was a flurry of surprising moves. A team that was typically pretty quiet and tame in terms of their acquisitions made several big trades in an attempt to return to relevance in the standings. Unfortunately, this didn’t come to fruition, but is it possible that parting with their starting third baseman and new shortstop actually better positioned them? The Twins Trade Away Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa Despite the remaining 2 years and $42m remaining on his contract, the Twins traded Donaldson to the Bronx last winter with whispers swirling that he had worn out his welcome. The former MVP played in 135 games in 2021, his most since his fantastic 2019, but still had modest results. Seeking to cleanse the clubhouse and avoid a potential drop off in production, this side of the Twins gamble worked. Donaldson continued causing issues in New York and he had his worst offensive year since 2012. He slashed .222/.308/.374, 3% below league average despite the harsh offensive environment. His defense did rebound and he stayed healthy for 132 games, but it’s safe to say the Twins are happy with this decision. Isiah Kiner-Falefa wasn’t on the Twins long enough to even have jerseys made, having been acquired shortly before in the Mitch Garver deal. The assumed starting shortstop, IKF had a reputation as a gamer even though he lacked any standout skills. He had the kind of season you’d expect from the light-hitting infielder, slashing .261/.314/.327. As usual, his defense was good or bad depending on the metric. This pair being shipped out allowed the Twins to sign Correa, who undeniably provided significantly more value than their initial plan at shortstop. IKF wasn’t even the starting shortstop more often than not come playoff time for the Yankees, a testament to how this trade just did not work out for New York at all. The Twins Receive Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela Gary Sanchez had a strange year. The Yankees just didn’t want him behind the plate anymore regardless of his bat, so naturally he came to Minnesota and his skills behind the plate became his carrying tool. His .205/.282/.377 line was surprisingly bad, as his standout bat completely cratered but his framing and general defense was his boon. In other circumstances it’s possible Sanchez would have either lost significant playing time or not finish the season on the team. Injuries, however, had him starting near everyday. His struggles will likely cost him this winter, as it’s doubtful a team will suddenly see him as a plus-defender and it seems the Twins were left holding the bag on his offensive dropoff. Gio Urshela was the prize of this deal. Similar to Kiner-Falefa, defensive metrics conflict on his value, but he routinely makes some eye-popping plays at the hot corner. His .285/.338/.429 slash line was a trip back to his 2019 and 2020 peak offensive seasons, both of which looked to be a product of the juiced ball and a shortened schedule. Sure enough however, Urshela was one of the Twins few bright spots down the stretch, and surely played himself into being tendered a contract for 2023. “Winning a trade” is all about opinion. Some argue the aggregate value tells the story, others like to be receiving the best player in the deal. In the Twins case, they won on both measures. Donaldson (1.6) and Kiner-Falefa (1.3) combined for 2.9 fWAR in comparison to Sanchez (1.3) and Urshela (2.4) equaling 3.7. If that wasn’t convincing enough, consider that Donaldson has another year remaining for $21m plus another $8M guaranteed in the form of a 2024 buyout. No longer a middle of the order bat and at increased risk for another injury, possible disaster looms for whatever team he’s on in 2023. IKF also has one remaining arbitration year, which is likely to either get non-tendered or traded after failing to nail down the shortstop job with several prospects on the horizon for the Yankees. On the Twins end, they certainly could’ve done better than Gary Sanchez with the $9m he was paid, but that was the cost of doing business and he’s off their books moving forward. Urshela’s arbitration value will likely settle around $9-10m, a reasonable price if he approaches anything near his 2022 output. In both the 2022 season and moving forward, this deal has created headaches on the Yankees side while the Twins undoubtedly became a better team as a result. This is without even mentioning the door to the Correa signing that was opened. Biases aside, it’s hard not to call this trade a win for the Twins. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that even Yankee fans would agree. There’s a chance this deal evens back out based on Donaldson’s or Kiner-Falefa’s performances in 2023, but there’s a better chance it gets even worse. Do you agree that this was a massive win for the Twins? Is it too early to make a determination? Let us know below! View full article

Gio Urshela was one of Minnesota's most reliable players in 2022, but Jose Miranda's emergence might make him expendable. Will the Twins trade Urshela? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. What Did He Do in 2022? Gio Urshela's first season in a Twins uniform went about as good as one could expect. He hit .285/.338/.429 (.767) with a 119 wRC+ and a 121 OPS+. He ranked in the 60th percentile or higher in max exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, and K%. Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, and Byron Buxton were the only Twins players to accumulate more WAR. His defense was below average as he ranked 8th among AL third baseman in SDI while also being in the 11th percentile for Outs Above Average. Overall, Urshela is an above-average big-leaguer, proving that again in 2022. Many will compare Urshela to Josh Donaldson since they played the same position and were included in the same trade. Urshela's OPS+ was 27 points higher than Donaldson's while accumulating 0.7 more WAR. Donaldson continues to be a superior defender to Urshela, but he was a below-average hitter in 2022. They are unique players at different points in their careers, but Urshela had the stronger 2022 season. Why is He a Trade Candidate? Jose Miranda's emergence over the last two seasons points to him becoming the team's long-term third baseman. In his rookie season, Miranda hit .268/.325/.426 (.751) with a 117 wRC+. He finished second in the TD Rookie of the Year voting, which came on the heels of a breakout 2021 season in the minors. Miranda plans to make improvements this winter by training with Carlos Correa. Derek Falvey also spoke highly of Miranda in his year-end press conference, which can signify that the team is ready for him to have a full-time role. Urshela's presence on the roster may be superfluous with Miranda's accolades. What is His Trade Value? Urshela will enter his final arbitration year and projects to get more than $9 million. FanGraphs pegs his value last season at $18.9 million, so his salary is below his production level. There will likely be a variety of teams interested in adding a solid regular to their line-up. However, Urshela is in his final year of team control, which impacts how much teams will be willing to surrender. It doesn't seem likely for Urshela to be worth a king's ransom, but he is worth multiple mid-tier prospects with upside. The Twins aren't forced to trade Urshela this winter because he showed the team the value he can provide in 2022. But injuries can impact the big-league roster, and Urshela might be needed as depth if there are injuries to other parts of the roster. Urshela will be the lone player remaining from the Josh Donaldson trade, so it will be interesting to see if the Twins can continue to get value from what looked like a salary dump trade. Do you think the Twins will try and trade Urshela? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota fell out of playoff contention, but there are plenty of former Twins to watch in October. Here are six former Twins that fans can follow during their new team’s playoff run. Image courtesy of David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Some of these players left after poor performances, while others were never even given a chance to suit up in a game. New York has seen multiple former Twins find different levels of success on the position player side, while the other playoff rosters will use former Minnesota pitchers. There’s a good chance at least one former Twins player will represent the AL in the World Series. Yankees: Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Aaron Hicks Hicks is the longest-tenured Yankee of this group, as he has played over 600 games in pinstripes. During the 2022 season, he has hit .224/.334/.324 (.658), which translates to a 90 OPS+ in over 120 games. It’s only the second time he has played over 123 games since being traded to New York. Most Of his defensive innings have come in center field, where his -4.0 SDI is the second lowest in the American League. Age has continued to impact Donaldson, and the Yankees have less time for him to play DH. In his age-36 season, his OPS dropped below .750 for the first time in a decade. His defense continues to be terrific as he leads all AL third basemen in SDI, and only four defenders have accumulated more SDI than him this season. Donaldson has over 167 playoff plate appearances, and the Yankees hope his experience pays off in October. Kiner-Falefa’s Twins tenure lasted hours as the team quickly dealt him to the Yankees after acquiring him from the Rangers. His first season in New York has gone about as expected on both sides of the plate. Offensively, he has hit .263/.315/.331 (.646) with 24 extra-base hits in 137 games. Defensively, he ranks seventh among AL shortstops in SDI, which is two spots behind Minnesota’s Carlos Correa. Astros: Ryan Pressly Pressly continues to be a dominant closer for the Astros, one of two powerhouse teams in the AL. In 47 appearances this season, he has a 2.91 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and a career-high 31 saves. He has posted an 11.8 K/9 as he has struck out nearly 35% of the batters facing him. The Astros are one of the favorites for the AL pennant, and Pressly will be asked to close out some critical games in the coming weeks. Blue Jays: Jose Berrios Berrios has gone through a terrible first full season in Toronto as he leads in AL in hits allowed and earned runs. He had been so consistent throughout his career that it’s hard to pinpoint where things have gone wrong with the Blue Jays. There is no guarantee that Berrios will be included in Toronto’s rotation for the playoffs. Would the team try to use him as a bullpen option? That seems unlikely since he has never previously been used in that role. Rays: JT Chargois Minnesota selected Chargois in the second round of the 2012 MLB Draft, but he only made 25 appearances with the club back in 2016. Since then, he has bounced around to multiple organizations before landing with the Rays over the last two seasons. He’s been limited to 19 appearances this season because of an oblique injury, but he seems to be healthy as the team gets closer to October. In 19 1/3 innings, he has a 2.79 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and a 14-to-5 strikeout to walk ratio. Perhaps Chargois can be a secret weapon for the Rays. Which former Twin will have the best postseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

In the dire straits of September 2021, the Twins fanbase worried about the future of the franchise. The team had justifiably traded away both Nelson Cruz and José Berrios. Negotiations between Byron Buxton and the organization had fallen apart during the summer. A number of the team's exciting prospects were recovering from injuries and likely unavailable to at least start 2022. Plus, a contentious bargaining situation between the league and players had owners acting with caution. Image courtesy of Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports Were the Twins to go the way of many teams and begin a long rebuild to return to contention? "I'm not using that word," Derek Falvey told the beat writers. Instead, 2022 would be a year for a reload. But what does a successful reload look like? The Twins set out to return to playoff contention as they had in 2019 and 2020. Doing so would require more money and trades than the team had done in previous years of Pohlad ownership. Teams often reload for playoff contention for several reasons but usually require a strong central core and only a few critical holes to fill. For the 2016 Red Sox, their last year with Hall of Famer David Ortiz and an ascending Mookie Betts, it meant grabbing David Price on a $217 million deal and Craig Kimbrel in a trade with San Diego. The team went from last to first in the division for the next three years, including a World Series ring in 2018. However, a better comparison for teams with smaller payrolls might be those 2005 White Sox. Their opening day lineup only featured three of the same faces from 2004, but none were rookies. Instead, Ozzie Guillén and Kenny Williams tried to rethink what kind of players to build around their core, grabbing AJ Pierzynski, Jermaine Dye, Tadahito Iguchi, and Scott Podsednik. Most of their core pitching returned, with Yankees pitcher Orlando Hernández filling in as their fifth man. Their salary ballooned from $65 million to $75 million, while the first-place Twins remained essentially static in the $50 million range. Of course, it was all worth it: the White Sox were an era-defining team, winning the division by six games, going on one of the all-time great post-season runs, and ending an 88-year-old championship drought. For the Twins going into 2022, there was enough in the revolver for one last go of a core set of players: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, and Miguel Sano, plus some promise with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff to step up (not to mention the many hopes around the arrival of Royce Lewis). Their bullpen had enough interesting names to build around. So why didn't the Twins work? First, the Twins had too many holes to fill, particularly in the starting pitching realm. Ober and Ryan had less than 100 innings under their belts, and Kenta Maeda was merely a glimmer of promise for a late-season comeback. The Twins needed a Day One starter, but quickly missed names like Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard, all of who made splashy but not impossible out-of-reach deals for the organization to match. When the market reopened, the Twins rebounded by making the smart move to trade their first-round draft pick for Sonny Gray. But then they went with not one not two but three different "fix me up" projects: Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Chris Paddack. Beyond Gray, that left five essentially unproven starters on opening day. The bullpen additions were equally shaky with the additions of Joe Smith and Emilio Pagán while dealing Taylor Rogers. Most importantly, the Twins essentially committed almost no new money in this realm beyond their trade capital, an odd sign for a team serious about contending. Of course, the Twins put money down this season with a pair of $100+ million contracts: an extension of Buxton and a second in a blockbuster deal to commit $35.1 million a year to Carlos Correa. Bringing in a playoff specialist like Correa was the essential move they needed. It at least felt part of their decision to erase bad clubhouse vibes by flipping Josh Donaldson for Yankees veterans Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez. Neither Urshela nor Sánchez were the top Bronx bombers, but there was plenty of sense they were the kind of players who understood big spots and big games. And yet, the Twins probably remained slim in other veteran talent to reinforce their lineup. The previous year had demonstrated that the team did not have their prospects ready to go as eight different men took to center field to fill in injury after injury. Whether the Twins expected this year's injury woes to be worse than last year, their decision to depend entirely on prospects to back up Buxton and Kepler felt short-sided with plenty of low-end veterans available on the market (Kevin Pillar for example took a minor league deal with the Dodgers). A strong reload rarely means depending on new players—those 2005 Sox were all veterans beyond their season call-up of closer Bobby Jenks—but the Twins seemingly put a lot of hope on what feels like too many prospects suddenly becoming core players. Jose Miranda, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran, have made themselves essential to this year's success, but others still have question marks about their long term viability (whether injury or ability). Either way, building through prospects is similar to what this year's Mariners have done where team has done after a long rebuild where they plan on years of contention after making a number of high profile trades and signings of known quantities to reinforce any flops of their prospects (Julio Rodríguez and George Kirby has outshined all potential, while Jarred Kelenic has essentially disappeared). Reloads are not just about graduating prospects; it's about building with those who don't need time to figure out their success. In another world, Donaldson was traded for prospects rather than big leaguers, and you could imagine Buxton, Polanco, and even Arraez packing their bags for other ballparks. Watching multiple seasons of poor performance in the hope of a good team down the road is no one's idea of fun, so the fact that the Twins pushed this year remains a blessing. But in retrospect, their approach in the reload feels odd. The Twins did increase their salary by 20% this season, but in the end, they were perhaps not in the place for the reload that wins championships. What was missing from the Twins reload? Sound off in the comments. View full article

The Twins series vs the Yankees ran the gauntlet of outcomes: Game 1 the Yankees won handily, Game 2 the Twins pummeled the Yankees, and Game 3 was a neck-and-neck match in which the Bronx Bombers prevailed. What should Twins fans take away from this series? Here are a few of my observations from being in the stands for these three games and a reason to walk away with some optimism. 1. The Twins can beat the Yankees. I repeat, the Twins can beat the Yankees- Never mind that pesky postseason losing streak or the Twins’ record vs the Yankees (now 38-111 since 2002). After the Game 2 blowout win, my main takeaway: was that that hard? The Twins not only beat the AL-leading Yankees on Wednesday night (a feat that has been built up in the minds of Twins fans to be an almost-impossible task) they clobbered them. The series finale on Thursday also was primed to be to be the best Twins game seen in recent years: the Twins started off with back-to-back-to-back home runs off Gerrit Cole and the Yankees of all teams. Even though the Yankees ultimately rallied past the Twins on Thursday due to bullpen woes, there is a lot from this series for Twins fans to feel good about: the Twins tagged Yankees stars Nestor Cortes and Cole for season-high ER totals. Chris Archer looked solid for a second-straight start. Jose Miranda had his first 3-hit game of his young career. Byron Buxton is now undoubtably back from his 0-30 slump. The Bomba Squad made its return on Thursday with 5 home runs, all against Cole. In sum, despite walking away with just one win, the Twins came to play this series, especially offensively, where traditionally vs the Yankees the hitting has disappeared. This is especially impressive considering how incredibly depleted the Twins' starting rotation is (surely, pitching Cole Sands, Archer, and Dylan Bundy vs. the likes of Cortes and Cole wasn't in the Twins' master plan). I'm not trying to claim moral victories, but with how big of a Goliath the Yankees are built up to be by the Twins, perhaps we need them. The Yankees are the best team in the American League, and the Twins proved this series they can play right with them. This team can and has beaten the Yankees and could do so in the upcoming postseason if the teams' paths crossed, especially with Joe Ryan back in the starting rotation and the addition of some other arms. 2. Twins fans aren’t quite sure how to feel about Josh Donaldson- Ever since Josh Donaldson was traded to the Yankees, bits and pieces have emerged that seem to suggest Donaldson might have a bit of a negative influence in the clubhouse. A “cancer,” if you will. However, Donaldson was traded to the Yankees, he didn’t leave, and he says he does not regret his time with Minnesota (though he didn’t mind being traded to New York either). This means no hard feelings from Twins fans, right? Mostly, The homecoming of the now-beardless Donaldson left Twins fans unsure of exactly how to react: his at bats were met with some muted boos, but the jeers were quiet and even a bit apathetic. Though Donaldson's legacy with the Twins is up for debate, and he has captured some national attention with his spat with the White Sox's Tim Anderson recently, he has not become a maligned figure here quite yet, 3. Stadium attendance is heating up- Finally, after months of mostly-empty stands, Twins fans returned to the stadium in droves this series. Beautiful weather, school getting out for the summer, and the hated Yankees being in town certainly contributed. The series' best attendance was seen on Tuesday night, Prince Night, which featured a giveaway t-shirt and a special ticket package with a Prince jacket. However, a large portion of the fans in the stands for all three games were donning pinstripes and Aaron Judge jerseys. Where all these Yankees fans come from, I don't know either, but at times when Joey Gallo or Giancarlo Stanton hit a home run, it almost felt like Target Field was transported to the Bronx. Of note, the Twins are running more deals coming up, including a "Vote Early, Vote Often" campaign for All Star voting, which provides fans with cheap ticket incentives for voting. Notably, any fan who votes at least 100 times before 1:00 p.m. CT on Thursday, June 30 will be able to purchase up to eight $1 tickets for a Twins game. So, the Twins emerge from this series with a mixed bag of results. Until we meet again, Yankees, but even if it's in the postseason, I think the Twins will be in good shape. View full article

While we spend most of our time focusing on the players on the current Minnesota Twins squad, it’s fun to check in on our “old friends” every once in a while. The moniker, “old friend”, has been common amongst Minnesota Twins fans when talking about players who used to play for the hometown squad but have since moved on to play for a different team. Whether or not you continue to root for old friends after they leave the Twins, it’s always a fun exercise to see how they are doing. Here are top performing “old friends” thus far in 2022: 5. Josh Donaldson .764 OPS 5 HR 15 RBI 0.9 fWAR While mired in controversy over the past couple of weeks, it’s still hard to deny that Josh Donaldson is having a strong year in pinstripes after being traded to the Yankees this past offseason. Aided by an average exit velocity that ranks in the 89th percentile, the Bringer of Rain owns a 123 OPS+ while continuing to provide above-average defense at the hot corner. For many, Donaldson isn’t much of an “old friend”, but he cracks the top-five for top performing ex-Twins in 2022. 4. Kyle Gibson 48 IP 3.94 ERA 1.1 fWAR Coming in fourth for top performing ex-Minnesota Twins in 2022 is someone who flashed ace potential at times with the Minnesota Twins but never quite put it all together, Kyle Gibson. After earning his first all-star appearance last season, Gibson is having himself another solid year on the mound with the Phillies in 2022. With a FIP of 3.22, Gibson has actually been even better than his surface stats suggest. 3. Taylor Rogers 21 1/3 IP 1.69 ERA 17 Saves 0.6 fWAR It was a controversial trade this offseason when the Twins traded away Taylor Rogers in exchange for Chris Paddack, and has become even more controversial after the start that Rogers has had in 2022. Across 21 appearances this season, Rogers has allowed an earned run in just two of those appearances. Rogers leads all of baseball with 17 saves this season and has quickly become one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball. 2. C.J. Cron .942 OPS 13 HR 37 RBI 1.5 fWAR C.J. Cron only spent one season with the Minnesota Twins, but since he departed following the 2019 season, he has been excellent. In 2022, though, he is having the best season of his career with an OPS+ of 155. Cron is tied for third in all of baseball with 13 home runs and is tied for sixth with 37 RBI. 1. Martín Pérez 56 1/3 IP 1.60 ERA 1.7 fWAR Martín Pérez was not good as a member of the Twins, posting a 5.12 ERA in his sole season with the club in 2019. In 2022, though, he has pitched like the best starting pitcher in all of baseball. Pérez’s 1.60 ERA leads Major League Baseball, and his 1.7 fWAR ranks third among starting pitchers. He hasn’t been garnering many strikeouts, but he has yet to allow a home run this season and is allowing a career-low 2.2 walks per nine innings. Who do you think has been the best performing ex-Minnesota Twins player in 2022? Which of these players would you add to the current Minnesota Twins roster if you could? Leave a comment and start the conversation! View full article

Former Twin Josh Donaldson had his name in the news for all the wrong reasons this weekend. Even with his on-field successes, it’s clear that the Twins were correct in moving on from Donaldson. Over the weekend, Josh Donaldson was involved in an altercation with Chicago's Tim Anderson. Donaldson allegedly called Anderson "Jackie," a reference to Jackie Robinson, that he thought was an inside joke between the two players. Major League Baseball investigated the incident, which involves multiple layers, and suspended Donaldson for one game. During his Twins tenure, Donaldson made headlines for multiple incidents, including calling out Gerrit Cole for his use of sticky substances and an ejection after hitting a home run. Originally, the Twins signed Donaldson as a veteran presence on a team in the middle of their winning window. Across two seasons, he hit .243/.355/.474 (.829) with a 129 OPS+ in 163 games. During the playoffs following the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Donaldson wasn't available, and the Twins were terrible in 2021. He was entering his age-36 season, and the front office found a way to get out from under his contract. On March 13, the Twins finalized a deal that sent Donaldson to the Yankees along with Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt. In return, Minnesota received Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela. All five players projected to be in each team's plans for the entire 2022 season, but baseball doesn't always work out that way. Yankees Acquisitions: Donaldson (1.6 WAR), Kiner-Falefa (0.3 WAR), Rortvedt (60-day IL) When making a trade, teams usually don't like to surrender the best player involved in the deal. Minnesota clearly did that as Donaldson is having a tremendous season as the Yankees sit five games up in the AL East. Age doesn't seem to be catching up to Donaldson, as he has a 126 OPS+ for the fourth consecutive season. Defensively, he is also having a resurgence as he ranks in the 81st percentile for Outs Above Average (OAA). Even with this kind of production, Donaldson has other baggage that some teams want to avoid. It remains to be seen if he can keep up this production through a 162-game schedule. Kiner-Falefa never appeared in a game for the Twins after being acquired from the Rangers as part of the Mitch Garver trade. So far this season, he has hit .264/.317/.312 (.629) with an 88 OPS+, which is seven points higher than his career mark. His Whiff% is in the 95th percentile, and his OAA (6th percentile) is one of the lowest marks among shortstops. Rortvedt underwent arthroscopic left knee surgery and may not be available until after the All-Star break. Twins Acquisitions: Sánchez (0.4 WAR), Urshela (0.1 WAR) A couple of weeks ago, Ted examined Minnesota's acquisitions from the Donaldson trade. Both players had yet to make a significant mark on the team, but those results may slowly change in the Twins' favor. Sánchez has surprised in multiple ways as he has an OPS+ of over 110 for the first time since he was an All-Star in 2019. He has also improved his framing metrics as he ranks in the 64th percentile, his highest mark since 2018. According to Win Probability Added, Sánchez ranks fourth on the Twins hitters behind Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Luis Arraez. In 2019 and 2020, Urshela hit .310/.359/.523 (.881) with a 134 OPS+, and that's the player the Twins were hoping to unlock. So far in 2022, he has been closer to the 2021 version of Urshela that posted a 96 OPS+ in 116 games. His K% is in the 91st percentile, and he provides little defensive value with an OAA in the 11th percentile. Over his last 100 plate appearances, his xwOBA has been above the league average, so there may still be hope for him breaking out of his offensive slump. At the end of the day, it's clear the Twins wanted to be "out of the Josh Donaldson business." His on-the-field performance outweighs the value the Twins got in return, but his other antics can rub a clubhouse the wrong way. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa provide a different kind of leadership for the Twins, and Minnesota is better off with him off the roster. What are your thoughts as you look back on the Donaldson trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

This offseason, after dealing Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers, Minnesota flipped Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt to the New York Yankees for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez. They filled two starting lineup spots with the trade, but there’s yet to be production from either player. In 2019 and 2020 the former Guardians veteran became one of baseball’s best at the hot corner. Gio Urshela posted a .310/.359/.523 slash line and hit 27 homers across 175 games. The Yankees made him a fixture in their lineup and he was seen as a key contributor after taking the position from Miguel Andujar. Urshela went through it for the first time since his breakout last year. After posting a 134 OPS+ in 2019 and 2020, he contributed a below league-average 95 OPS+. Given his dealings with Covid multiple times, as well as suffering injury, it was explainable why the production had dipped. The hope for Minnesota was undoubtedly that a change of scenery and clean bill of health would result in rebounding to where he was at his peak. Now 30-years-old, Urshela is 27 games into his Twins career and the 83 OPS+ is a bottoming out of sorts. He hasn’t dropped to the irrelevance of his time in Cleveland, but at a time when offense is down across the board, he’s finding ways to contribute even less. Urshela is not a hulking slugger by any means, but across nearly 100 plate appearances he has just three extra-base hits and only one homer. If there’s a silver lining for Urshela, it’s that we may just be dealing with a small sample. His expected batting average is 30 points higher at .263 and his xwOBA sits near the 2019 mark at .338. He’s at his career average when it comes to hard-hit rate, and Urshela still has a good process at the plate posting just a 12/9 K/BB. Rocco Baldelli is certainly hoping his third basemen figures it out, otherwise, that could be an avenue for someone like Royce Lewis or Luis Arraez to steal playing time. Behind the dish was never going to be a calling card for Gary Sanchez, regardless of a new change in scenery. He’s a rough backstop, but his bat used to carry him. Coincidentally, Sanchez’s 83 OPS+ is the exact same mark as his trade partner, Urshela. There was a time the Dominican native was competing for Rookie of the Year awards and picking up All-Star game selections. 2019 and his .841 OPS seem like a distant memory at this point, however. The last two seasons in New York equated to a 90 OPS+ for Sanchez, and he’s now dipped well below. Across 80 plate appearances, Sanchez owns a .203/.263/.338 slash line. He is a power producer but has homered only once while tacking on seven doubles. Unlike Urshela, Sanchez’s expected batting average is actually worse than what he’s generated and although the xwOBA is better, it’s insignificant with just an eight-point swing. Sanchez is still hitting with a similar hard-hit rate to when he was at his best in 2019, but he’s bumped the fly all rate up to 53% and halved a very solid 20% line drive rate from that season. Getting too far under the baseball, and being bit by a ball that’s deadened, Sanchez has just a 3.6% HR/FB ratio after seeing a whopping 26.4% ratio in 2019. Although he’s making the most contact of his career, pitchers are also forcing him to chase at a career-worst rate. For Sanchez the bat has to play for there to be any value. He’s been worth -0.3 fWAR because it hasn’t and his time behind the dish will always be flawed. Minnesota doesn’t have other options at catcher and that makes the leash extremely long here. Still, getting him anything more than rotational at-bats becomes unnecessary if this is the production Baldelli can expect. It was a fine move to swap out Josh Donaldson. His place in the clubhouse may not have been ideal, and the move freed up the opportunity to sign Carlos Correa. That said, the Twins can’t afford to have a lineup with two players producing so little offensively. New York has bit Minnesota plenty over the years, and right now it’s happening from within. How long are you willing to wait and find out if these two find it? View full article