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The Minnesota Twins flopped in 2021, and it was primarily due to a lack of performance from those expected to contribute. There were injuries as well, but the hope is that development promotes production in 2022. Needing to add, this blueprint focuses almost entirely on two areas. If there’s something the Twins need to address, it’s pitching. There’s no denying that a rotation with just two current arms needs a severe jolt. Dealing Jose Berrios and watching Kenta Maeda go under the knife leaves the group on life support. No matter Minnesota’s intended direction for the year ahead, stockpiling pitching assets for the future is beyond necessary. With that in mind, let’s start the spending in a big way. The front office hands out another $100 million contract, this time to Marcus Stroman, over five years. Stroman will be 31 in 2022 and has been as consistent as they come throughout his career. His 3.63 ERA is solid, and while he’s not a strikeout pitcher, he limits damage by forcing hitters to get themselves out on the ground. The career 0.8 HR/9 rate is solid, and he walks just over two per nine. Stroman has been both durable and reliable. While he may not have the top-tier stuff of a traditional ace, this is a guy you can be confident in each time you hand him the ball. A caveat here is that Stroman will be most effective with a strong infield defense behind him. Dropping down a rung, a second arm joins the rotation in the form of Jon Gray. Former Rockies first-round pick Gray is entering free agency with no draft pick compensation tied to him. This seems like a misstep by Colorado but is a place where the Twins can capitalize. Gray has strikeout stuff, and while he doesn’t induce much in the form of chasing, the big righty blows it by opposing hitters. Gray has a plus-slider and could be further unlocked with a diminishing home run rate, leaving Coors Field's elevation permanently. A three or four-year deal around $10 million annually seems like a pretty fair pact. Rounding out the rotation additions requires a swap with a team open for business. The Cincinnati Reds appear determined to tear it all down, and that’s a party Minnesota should invite themselves to. While Luis Castillo is the big pitching prize there, I’d prefer seeing them hang onto the assets a swap like that would need to part with. Instead, Tyler Mahle draws my attention. He’s just 27-years-old and isn’t a free agent until 2024. Mahle owns a 3.72 ERA and 10.7 K/9 the past two seasons. You’d like to see him get the walks down and allow a few less homers, but there’s plenty to work with here. If you can make this trade by giving up Jhoan Duran, Cole Sands, and Alerick Soularie, I think you have to consider that. Before flipping it over to the offense, we will spend just over one million on a bullpen addition, right-handed veteran Greg Holland The former Kansas City Royals arm has had up and down seasons since 2017. He’s often rebounded following a poor showing, and the upswing would be scheduled for 2022. It’s entirely fair to assume he may be cooked, but the velocity and effectiveness have remained essentially unchanged over the past few seasons. He walked too many batters and got burned by the long ball last season, but a few command tweaks could have him back on track. He’d be a veteran arm with little cost that could shore up a bullpen largely reliant on internal talent. If things go belly up, the hope would be that an internal depth piece has stepped up out of the gate. I’m mainly gambling on holdovers such as Juan Minaya and Ralph Garza Jr. being enough to round out the stable when it comes to relievers. Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey need to be the horses, and Jorge Alcala continuing to look like he did down the stretch is a must. The final considerable expense comes at the other position needing serious help, shortstop. Jorge Polanco has established himself as a solid second baseman and needs to stay there. Much will be told about the belief and direction of Minnesota’s future with how the front office handles this role over the winter. A one-year deal means Royce Lewis or Austin Martin could be the next option. A long-term deal suggests uncertainty about an heir from within and may dictate how a Byron Buxton extension is handled (though that, too, should be a part of this offseason’s tasks). If there’s a shortstop in this class that looks for a strong one-year deal before cashing in, I think it’s former Cub, Javier Baez. He posted a strong .886 OPS with the Mets down the stretch, but I still think he could do better coming off a complete season of production. Giving him just north of $20 million for a year gets him paid and allows Minnesota flexibility over what they’d like to do with the roster in another offseason. He’s a great defender and brings a bat at the position that most organizations could only dream on. With the dust beginning to settle, you can see that the vast majority of open opportunities fall on guys already in the organization. Brent Rooker is your de facto designated hitter, with Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff making the Opening Day roster. Jose Miranda is a utility guy, and Luis Arraez joins him. If you don’t like the prognosis of a lineup mainly filled with internal talent, then it’s hard to have expected much out of 2021, either. Kirilloff and Larnach have been expected to make the leap. Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, Polanco, and Buxton are supposed to carry the water. Miguel Sano can be there in bursts, and emerging talents like Miranda can step in as well. A complete lineup overhaul would represent a teardown, and doing so would be an admittance of failed development for this core. Coming off lackluster results and being stuck between what was and what is to come leaves this offseason as one of the most important this front office has ever faced. We’re in for some answers, and it should be a wild ride. Get pitching. Get a shortstop. Let the chips fall where they may. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this potential offseason. Please share in the comments below. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

This past weekend, several of the top free agent starters received qualifying offers, meaning they'll either come off the market by accepting, or inherit a draft-pick attachment by rejecting. One name conspicuously absent from the list: Jon Gray, who is now available in free agency with no strings attached. He'll have plenty of suitors, and the Twins are sure to be among them. In an alternate universe, the Twins very well could've been matched with Gray from the very start. They held the No. 4 overall pick in the 2013 draft, with a clear need for pitching, and he was considered the top college arm after Stanford's Mark Appel, who went to Houston first overall. The Twins had deeply scouted their eventual pick, prep pitcher Kohl Stewart (who turned out to be a disastrous bust). But if the University of Oklahoma star Gray hadn't been claimed one spot ahead of Minnesota, by the Rockies at No. 3, would the Twins have opted for the far less risky commodity? Alas, we will never know. But now the Twins have an opportunity to reunite with the pitcher they just missed. As for Gray, his journey with the Rockies could best be described as ... rocky. Jon Gray's Tenure in Colorado The top draft pick established himself accordingly in the minors, and emerged as a consensus top-20 prospect after dominating the low minors. He moved quickly to the majors and finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting. His performance in that rookie season of 2016 – 168 IP, 4.61 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.26 WHIP – would basically set the benchmark for Gray. He was more or less that same guy throughout his time with the Rockies, with some high points and low points mixed in. He completes his run in Colorado with a 4.59 ERA and 3.91 FIP, displaying the gap one expects from a pitcher in Coors. While we all know the mile-high environment suppresses pitching results, Gray has failed to break through on any merit. He's never posted an ERA lower than 3.67, and he has a 4.19 FIP over the past four seasons. His year-to-year performance places him firmly in the "mid-rotation starter" category, which helps explain why Colorado didn't want to commit for $18.4 million. Gray likely would've accepted the QO, if offered. Instead he'll turn to the open market for a longer-term deal. The Rockies reportedly reached out with an extension offer before season's end, but were rejected. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post posited that Gray "is likely seeking a three- or four-year deal at about $9 million-$10 million a season." That's right in Minnesota's wheelhouse, for their second rotation addition if not their first. Is Gray worthy of an intense pursuit? 3 Things to Know About Jon Gray He's durable. But not super durable. Gray has mostly avoided arm injuries throughout his professional career, despite hurling a fastball in the mid-90s plus a consistently heavy dose of sliders. He did miss a bit of time with an elbow flexor injury this past June, though he returned without issue. Gray ended up throwing 149 innings this year, which is almost exactly what he averaged from 2016 through 2019. He's never thrown more than 173 innings in a season but he's also never missed more than a handful of starts in a season, save for 2017 when a stress fracture in his foot cost him two months. In Colorado, Gray has mostly been treated as a five-and-fly type, pitching five or at most six innings before giving way to the bullpen. Some might say that fits the Twins' style of management. I'd argue its more reflective of the sport's evolution at large, but alas, it adds to the sense of alignment. He gets strikeouts, but doesn't make people chase. Gray has averaged more than a strikeout per inning in every full season he's pitched, including 2021 where he averaged 9.5 K/9. However, he did so this year with a chase rate ranking in the 5th percentile of all major-leaguers. O-Swing % represents the percentage of pitches where a batter swings outside the zone, and in this category Gray's 25.8% mark in 2021 would've ranked 29th out of 35 pitchers who pitched for the Twins this year, surpassing only Beau Burrows, Shaun Anderson, Kyle Barraclough, Andrew Albers, Edgar Garcia, Brandon Waddell and Willians Astudillo. Yeesh. The latest season was no outlier. Since his debut in 2015, Gray ranks 54th out of 54 pitchers (800+ IP) in chase rate. It's impressive Gray has been able to find relative success despite this critical shortcoming. But it also speaks to a potential opportunity to level-up. If Gray could make more batters chase out of the zone, he'd likely cut down on his mediocre walk rates, increase his already-good strikeout rates, and unlock greater overall efficiency. Undoubtedly his coaches in Colorado were working on this fairly obvious fix, but maybe a new voice helps him turn a corner — perhaps via increased usage of the changeup and curveball, which have generated his highest chase rates this year despite being his least-used offerings. He's one of the youngest starting pitchers in free agency. By nature, free agents tend to be past 30, and sometimes well past 30, because it takes six-plus years to reach that point. But Gray's reaching the open market on the early side, as a collegiate top draft pick who was fast-tracked to the big leagues by age 23. He just wrapped up his age-29 season and turned 30 a few days ago on November 5th. Given his relative lack of career earnings (he's banked about $16 million total up to this point), Gray may value the security of a longer-term deal at a reasonable sum, which holds appeal for teams given his age. In this respect, and also because he won't cost a draft pick to sign, Gray feels like a good fit for the Twins with their stuck-in-between status of contending and rebuilding. He could be a real difference-maker in 2022 but also '23 and '24. Jon Gray and the Twins An important thing to recognize about free agency is that you're not paying for what someone has done, you're paying for what they are going to do. No one can predict the future, obviously, but there are numerous indicators and signs. It's foolish to treat history as the only impactful one. Teams (including the Twins) didn't fixate on the past when they went hard after Zack Wheeler a couple years ago in free agency, despite his unspectacular career numbers (3.77 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 100 ERA+). The Phillies ultimately won out, signing Wheeler to a $118 million contract, and they've been richly rewarded as he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball since, posting a 2.82 ERA in two ultra-durable seasons. Now, I'm not saying Gray is anywhere close to the same as Wheeler, whose flaws were less readily apparent and his upside more so. Because of that, he won't get a deal anywhere near that same range. But there will be plenty of teams intrigued by his seemingly unscratched potential, and it would be no surprise if a modest bidding war breaks out. In the Offseason Handbook we projected a $10 million yearly salary, figuring he'd land a deal in the 3 years, $30M range, which jibes with what the Denver Post projected he would get. However, it would come as no shock at all if his eventual price tag climbs considerably higher. Ricky Nolasco territory (4 years, $49M) seems achievable. Would the Twins go that high? Should they? Are they even a destination of interest to Gray, whose own preferences will ultimately play a pivotal role in where he lands? It's hard to say. But what's clear is that Twins fans should be paying close attention to him, because there's little doubt Minnesota will be in the running. And despite expectations that this offseason would crawl its way to an early stop with a lockout looming, LA's signing of Andrew Heaney on Monday throws this presumption into doubt. Teams are out here looking to score early values on the market. If the Twins are serious about Gray, they'd be wise to make their intentions known quickly (if they haven't already). MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

By Sunday afternoon, teams had to decide whether or not to submit qualifying offers to eligible free agents. Minnesota has its eyes on multiple free agent players, so how does the qualifying offer impact their spending options? According to MLB.com, here is a reminder of the qualifying offer process. “When an eligible player reaches free agency, his former team has the option to extend a one-year offer worth the average salary of the highest-paid 125 players in baseball, which this year is $18.4 million. Players have 10 days to accept or decline; if they accept, they return for 2022 for that $18.4 million; if they decline, they head off into the market as a free agent, with his former team receiving compensation in the form of a Draft pick if they sign elsewhere." Last winter, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman were the only two players to accept the qualifying offer. Both Gausman and Stroman will enter free agency in a much better position than last winter. However, in the previous nine offseasons, only 10 out of 96 players have accepted the deal. For the Twins, their penalty for signing a player is in a group that faces the smallest draft pick penalty. Minnesota is one of 13 teams that receive revenue sharing, so that means they would forfeit their third-highest pick in next year’s draft if they sign a player that received a qualifying offer. If Minnesota signed two qualified free agents, they would forfeit their next highest available draft pick. Some players the Twins might be interested in are not eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded last season or have previously received a qualifying offer. SS Javier Baez and DH Nelson Cruz were both traded last year, so they are ineligible. Starting pitchers Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Zack Greinke, and Alex Cobb previously received a qualifying offer. With no qualifying offer attached to these players, more teams will likely be interested in their services since draft pick compensation is not tied to their signing. Many of this year’s top free agents had their teams submit a qualifying offer, including names at positions of need for the Twins. Shortstops Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager all received an offer and are expected to decline. Starting pitchers in that same category include Robbie Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Justin Verlander. Ray will decline the offer as he is headed for a big payday, while Verlander and Rodriguez may consider accepting. Last week, I wrote about how the Twins might be interested in gambling on signing two pitchers coming off of injuries. Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Rodón are both entering this winter in different positions. Syndergaard is just making his way back from Tommy John surgery, which might mean he is interested in a one-year deal to prove he is healthy. Rodón is coming off a career year, but shoulder injuries limited him in the second half. It seems likely for Syndergaard to accept a qualifying offer while Rodón was not issued a qualifying offer. It also sounds like the White Sox are ready to move on from Rodón. Besides Rodon, two other starting pitchers might be surprised that they didn’t receive qualifying offers. Colorado’s Jon Gray and San Francisco’s Anthony DeSclafani are in the second free agent tier that the Twins front office will likely focus on to fill out the rotation. It sounds like Gray was open to accepting a qualifying offer, and that may have persuaded the Rockies from issuing it. DeSclafani is coming off a tremendous season, but some of his StatCast numbers show that he may regress. Many of the qualifying offers mentioned above were likely expected, so nothing should be surprising for Minnesota’s front office. Now the teams will wait to see what players accept or decline the offers. From there, teams can start making their offseason spending plan. Will MLB’s qualifying offer system impact the Twins this winter? Will MLB change their qualifying offer rules? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins will need to revamp their pitching staff this offseason. They currently have just two holdover starters, and looking to the free-agent market is likely. Maybe there’s a fit with this former Colorado Rockies pitcher. Drafted 3rd overall in the 2013 Major League Baseball draft, Jon Gray is a free agent for the first time in his career this offseason. He will be 30-years-old for the 2022 season and has thrown 829 innings for the Colorado Rockies. It’s been a bit of a mixed bag for Gray at the big-league level in that he’s posted a sub 4.00 ERA just twice in his seven seasons. Since his 3.84 mark in 2019, Gray has owned a 5.03 ERA across 37 starts. Calling that dominant would be a notable stretch. However, what Gray does have going for him is that he’s consistently posted strong FIP marks in relation to his ERA numbers. It’s not that he’s been hurt by Coors Field, as he has better career numbers at home, but that he’s been hurt by the defense behind him. A career 4.59 ERA isn’t going to win any awards, but the 3.91 FIP is something that a better situation could look to exploit and expand upon. Gray is a strikeout pitcher. Outside of the anomaly that was 2020, he’s consistently posted a K/9 north of 9.0, and his career mark is 9.2. The walks are manageable at 3.0 per nine, and while the home run rate of 1.1 is passable, it may fall getting out of the elevation in Denver as well. Gray’s 107 ERA+ suggests he’s been about a league-average pitcher, but you aren’t signing him for what he’s been as much as you are what he could potentially be. Earlier this week, it was reported that the Rockies attempted to extend Gray with a three-year deal that fell in the $35-40 million range. That’s just north of $13 million annually on the high-end and would fall below a potential qualifying offer for one year should Colorado decide to go that route. We aren’t yet sure what the status or implications of a reworked CBA will do to the qualifying offer process, but draft pick compensation would certainly make Gray a bit less desirable of a sign. Realistically, the numbers reported for Gray don’t seem outlandish, and Minnesota should be expected to play in that pool. He’s not going to be in the top tier of free-agent arms, and while there’s a lot to dream on with his numbers, it still requires strong negotiating on his side to be paid for hypotheticals. Ultimately, I’m not sure what Gray’s market ends up looking like, and teams will have guys like Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Matz to compare him to, but he’s undoubtedly an arm that would be a fit for Minnesota. Bringing in a strong fastball, averaging just south of 95 mph this season, along with a plus slider, would be a nice set of tools for Wes Johnson to work with. Gray raises the water level of a group currently consisting of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. That’s not going to be enough for the Twins to experience a turnaround, but he’d represent a start. For years, I thought Gray made sense as a trade target from Colorado, and so too did his rotation mate German Marquez. The latter is now inked to an extension, though, and the former is available to all on the open market. If the Twins want to dance, they’ve found their opportunity. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Twins need to add starting pitching this offseason. They also have needs at shortstop and in relief. How might they attack the free agent SP market? Here are three names to watch out for. ‘We need pitching’. Boy is that a tired and trite maxim for the Minnesota Twins. It remains true as the teams’ 2020 off-season pitching additions largely capitulated and underperformed. Matt Shoemaker, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome, all contributed significantly in digging the Twins into the inextricable hole which prevented a third straight AL Central title. However poorly 2020s additions played out, the front office will not and should not be shy about dipping into the free-agent market this off-season. It’s a necessity. The Twins need a one-year bridge at shortstop at the very least, a few relievers, and likely, three rotation-worthy starting pitchers. While the Twins will inevitably need to sign a free-agent starting pitcher, there are some assumptions I’m choosing to make, for the sake of this piece, before examining viable options. The Twins will not sign a top-tier free-agent starting pitcher. With so many needs, including SS and RP, the Twins will need to spread payroll around, they are highly unlikely to sign a pitcher from the top few tiers of free agents (Scherzer, Gausman, Stroman, etc.) I’d love to be wrong about that, but let’s be realistic. I think it’s most likely the Twins acquire their most impactful 2022 starting pitcher via trade. Again, I may be proven wrong here, but this makes too much sense. The Twins have a strong and deep farm system. In recent years, they have made strong offers to upper-tier free-agent starters (Darvish), with little joy. Trade is how they can acquire the greatest upside. I believe the Twins will re-sign Pineda to an owner-friendly deal, which will cover approximately 160 innings in 2022. I’m therefore excluding Pineda from consideration in this article. Reinforcements are close. The Twins now have a stable of intriguing arms in the high minors. It’s likely that a few can contribute to the starting rotation in 2022, much as Bailey Ober did in 2021. It seems likely then, that the Twins will target starting pitchers who have a track record of solid reliability while young arms are being polished in Wichita and St. Paul. There seems to be a sweet spot of free agents for the Twins to target. Starters who averaged between 2.0-3.5 fWAR in 2020 and fall into the category of veterans who might sign short-term deals or close to excellent starting pitchers who the organization believes they can tweak to take to the next level. Let’s take a look at some candidates. Zack Greinke Nick Nelson has suggested Greinke as a good fit for the Twins, and given the state of their rotation, I agree. Greinke showed one alarming sign of decline last year, a K/9 which dropped from 9.00 to 6.32, precipitous for sure. This was primarily due to a jump on HR/FB. Greinke’s other metrics remained consistent (excellent control, his fastball velocity actually increased). Greinke is going to give someone 175 innings of pitching, with an ERA in the low 4.00s and between 1.2-2.5 fWAR. If the price is right, he could be a good fit. Anthony DeSclafani Twins fans’ most recent memory of DeSclafani may be struggling against a tremendous Dodgers lineup in Game 4 of the NLDS. If you remove the shortened 2020 season (which was a poor one for DeSclafani), he’s been an impressive starter in recent years. Excluding 2020, DeSclafani has averaged 2.1 fWAR per season and a 3.89 xERA. DeSclafani doesn’t walk many (6.2% in 2021) and has a respectable 22.5% K% while averaging 95 mph with his fastball. He’s exactly the kind of reliable candidate I’d expect the Twins to target in free agency this offseason. Jon Gray Gray is a name that Twins fans often linked to the team as a possible trade target. While perhaps never ascending to the height that some expected of the number three overall pick, Gray has been an effective, consistent starting pitcher for several years. Excluding the shortened 2020 season, Gray has averaged 2.7 fWAR per season and a 3.71 xFIP over his last four seasons. In that span, he’s averaged around 150 innings pitched, 9.29 K/9, and has managed to pitch more effectively at home at Coors Field than on the road. Gray is another reliable, effective option for the Twins, who, like DeSclafani, can offer strong innings to the Twins as they continue to develop their impressive array of minor league arm talent. Which of these candidates do you like or not like for the Twins rotation? Which other free-agent starting pitchers would you like to see the Twins target? View full article

As things stand right now the Minnesota Twins have what can be considered an incomplete 26-man roster. There’s work yet to be done, as there is for most teams in baseball, and the front office may find favor in one-year agreements for 2021. The reality right now is that teams are using the lack of traditional revenues as reasons to spend less for the 2021 Major League Baseball season. On top of that, there’s uncertainty regarding the 2022 season due to an expiring CBA and the previous history between the league and Players Association. While the Twins may see reduced payroll as a way forward in terms of financial flexibility, one-year deals may be an outlier allowing them to still maximize a competitive window. It’s a pretty hard sell for the Pohlad’s to suggest they are committed to winning while instructing Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to take their foot off the gas in the midst of developmental emergence. This organization signed their biggest free agent in history just last offseason, and not pairing him with more talent as the home-grown group has emerged would be a head-scratcher at best. While it wouldn’t necessarily reduce the bill for 2021, removing future monetary commitment is a practice that makes some sense this time around. Think back to 2018 for a moment. Minnesota made a splash with Spring Training already underway. In a less than ideal market for both players, the secured the services of Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison. Both players came in a bit disgruntled at the process they witnessed over the winter, and their output left plenty to be desired. At that time, the suggestion of hired hitman brought forth the discussion as to whether chemistry was ever truly able to be established. With a different set of parameters this time around, a similar plan could be truly beneficial. Thus far the only deal of consequence for Minnesota has been the acquisition of former Angels closer Hansel Robles on a one-year deal. Internally, he joins Michael Pineda as a free agent following the 2021 season. There’s a sunk cost already with Josh Donaldson, and then much of the Twins roster is on team-friendly extensions, or just into the arbitration process. In short, there’s not much of a massive monetary leap year over year from what’s already committed to. Enter the onslaught of one-year deals. Kris Bryant for $18 million, yep, sure. Trevor Story at the same price, why not. How about Sonny Gray for just over $10 million, or Jon Gray coming in just under $6 million. The reality is that while all of those players are substantially more costly than a prospect at the league minimum, the future financial fear is off the table. You could add Nelson Cruz and his $16 million ask to this group as well. The point isn’t that the money is inconsequential, but that you’d be maximizing your opportunity while still having flexibility in the seasons ahead. For years Major League organizations have seen record growth and financial dividends. 2020 provided an unprecedented halt to those trends, but the reality for the vast majority of the league is that a profit was still turned. Having the ability to regain that opportunity in the near future remains a priority for ownership, and this would give them a clear vision to see that come to fruition. Players in the final year of contracts, and especially those with hefty price tags, should not require a ransom be paid in exchange for their services. The Rockies Story is an elite talent, but plenty of Minnesota’s system should stay intact. Bryant would seemingly have even less of a required package, and the same could be said about Colorado’s Gray. I don’t know how Falvey and Levine will navigate these waters when they finally dip their oars in, but this seems like a plausible path forward. In a traditional cycle I’d be less interested in a team full of short-term reinforcements. If it means that talent is bolstered and payroll flexibility is still to be achieved, this could be a blueprint that satisfies all needs. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Ted Schwerzler wrote a great article that the Twins need to target the Pirates as a great trade possibility now. I totally agree! But I`d like to present possibly another in the near future & that`s the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies had a losing record last year, well out of contention of any play off possibility. This off season they didn`t do anything but yet they believe they still have a chance to make it this year, so they said they don`t want to trade. Now w/ the Arenado situation, I believe they will have to trade him. I believe Arenado really wants to win it all so he finally woke up & realized that the Rockies aren`t going anywhere therefore he wants out. He has an opt out option after next year & when the FO realizes that he`s going that route they have no choice other than to trade him. W/o Arenado & a very weak farm system they`ll have to take the route of rebuilding. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/its-time-to-break-up-the-rockies/ That brings up Jon Gray, he`s been compared as the next Gerrit Cole https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-sports/twins-daily-finding-the-next-gerrit-cole-a-rocky-proposition Since this article I`ve been dreaming of a Jon Gray trade. Gerrit Cole wasn`t that great w/ the Pirates but when he arrived at the Astros his career took off. If we get Gray I believe he`ll become an ace for us. Although I don`t know for sure ,I`ve heard he`s not satisfied at Colorado. I know Colorado is looking for a high prospect catcher but hopefully they`ll get it when they trade Arenado so we don`t have to use our high catching prospect. Then we can trade pitching & outfield prospects. It`ll cost us a couple of high prospects. Many teams will be after him so we need to be ready What do you think?

Yesterday, Nick wrote an article talking about how the Twins deserve creditfor acquiring Jake Odorizzi and working with him to find his best self in 2019. Today, I wanted to continue the “Finding the Next Gerrit Cole” theme by literally trying to find someone who could possibly provide the type of impact that Cole had on the Astros. Maybe there is one potential trade candidate out there who fits that mold.Twins fans (at least those who read Twins Daily) have known about Jon Gray and his pitching talents since before the Colorado Rockies made him the third overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft. The Twins Geek wrote up a Draft Profile on the flame-thrower from Oklahoma. That year, Gray was taken after the Astros took Mark Appel and the Cubs selected Kris Bryant. One pick after the Rockies drafted Gray, the Twins used the fourth overall pick on Kohl Stewart. Gerrit Cole, of course, was the first overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates out of UCLA. Cole is listed at 6-foot-4. Gray is listed at 6-foot-4. Cole is listed at 225 pounds. Gray is listed at 227 pounds. Of course, height and weight are important in scouting, but in this analysis, it means nothing. There are dozens of MLB (and minor league) pitchers that are 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds or so. I thought it would be interesting to compare more to see how similar the two might be. To do so, I looked at Gerrit Cole in 2017. He was 26 years old and had two more years of arbitration remaining. In 2019, Jon Gray was 27 years old, and as we look forward, he has two more years before he can become a free agent. So let’s take a look at how Gerrit Cole performed for the Pirates in 2017 and compare it to how Jon Gray pitched for the Rockies in 2019. And hey, just for fun, let’s throw Cole’s 2019 numbers in there too. What does it show us? Obviously we know that Win-Loss record doesn’t tell us anything. Gray’s ERA was better, but Cole held a slight advantage in xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Cole had the better WHIP. It might surprise people to see that Gray actually struck out more batters, though it’s statistically close enough, especially when strikeouts continue to increase across the league. Cole had better control. The biggest difference is that Cole topped 200 innings in 2017 while Gray pitched just 150 innings in 2019. Gray went on the injured list in mid-August with a fractured left foot. He had surgery and should be ready in advance of spring training. He had a similar foot/ankle injury in 2017 that cost him two-and-a-half months. Gray gets more ground balls, though I can’t help but wonder if that’s due to how he chooses to pitch in Colorado.The two had very similar strikeout rates. Again, comparing those numbers to what Cole became in 2019 is more just fun than anything else, something to dream on. Some will say that Gray isn’t as good as Cole was in 2017. I think that the numbers above show that they are more similar statistically than we may have even thought. But I think it’s more important to look at how they pitch to see whether or not they are similar. Is their stuff comparable? Here are some numbers, again comparing Gray in 2019 with Cole in 2017. And, of course, I needed to add Cole in 2019 to the chart for fun, but also for a point. (SETH CORRECTION: Jon Gray threw 33.5% sliders, not 13.5% Sorry if that created confusion.) I happen to think this chart is really interesting. Again, comparing Gray in 2019 with Cole in 2017, there are a lot of similarities. They both had an average fastball of 96 mph. They both throw 88 mph sliders. Gray’s curveball came in just a little slower, and so did his changeup. Cole threw more fastballs. Gray threw a lot of sliders and didn’t throw many changeups. Cole gave up less contact and got a higher percentage of swing-and-misses on strikes. It all speaks to his stuff being right on par with Garret Cole’s in 2017. The Big Question In my mind, the big question is - and should be with any pitcher the Twins consider with trades or free agency: Do the Twins pitching coaches, coordinators and evaluators think that Jon Gray can take it a step up from his 2019 numbers the same way that Cole’s performance jumped from 2017 to 2019? Cole added one mph on his fastball and on his slider. He did so while throwing a fewer fastballs and changeups and a few more sliders and curveballs. Can Jon Gray add a tick or two to his velocity? Can his pitch mix be altered in such a way to reduce his contact rate and improve his swing-and-miss stuff? Ultimately that’s what the Twins brass needs to consider. What Might it Take? If they do consider Gray to be a guy that could take a step forward in performance and possibly be an elite starting pitcher, well, then they need to figure out what they are willing to give up to acquire him from the Rockies. So again, let’s look at Gerrit Cole for a comparison. The Houston Astros acquired Gerrit Cole from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for four players: RHP Michael Feliz - He was 24 years old and spent two-plus seasons with the Astros before the trade. He had a 5.13 ERA over that time period before the deal.OF Jason Martin - He was a 22-year-old at the time of the deal. He split 2017 between High-A and AA and hit 35 doubles and 18 home runs that season.1B/3B Colin Moran - He was 25 and had been a high draft pick. He was a Top 100 prospect in previous years but no longer at the time of the deal.RHP Joe Musgrave - He was a 24-year-old, a first-round pick in 2011. He spent time as a part-time starter with the Astros in 2016 and 2017.So what might a similar deal look like for the Twins.Obviously this is a hypothetical, but I think it would take something similar to the below. I think that the package should be similar, but still a little less than what was required to acquire Cole.RHP Fernando Romero - Romero is currently 24-years-old and has spent parts of 2018 and 2019 in the big leagues. While his numbers in 2019, his first year as a bullpen arm, didn’t do great, his potential is still high.IF Travis Blankenhorn - He was just added to the 40-man roster, but like Martin, he split 2019 between High-A and AA and hit 19 home runs despite missing a bit more than a month with a broken finger.OF/1B - Brent Rooker - Can you imagine what Brent Rooker could do to baseballs in the Mile High City? Rooker had been in the Top 100 prospects last year but injuries cost him time in 2019. But his power is legit.RHP Griffin Jax - Now, when I put this together, I wasn’t sure if Jax would be added to the 40-man roster. The Denver (area) native wasn’t added to the 40-man roster, so he’s less likely to be tradable until after the Rule 5 draft. But there are any number of similar pitchers in the organization that the Rockies might have an interest in as well. If I were to keep the theme of Denver-area people, Bailey Ober might be a candidate. Or, might it take a pitcher with some big-league service time like a Devin Smeltzer or even Lewis Thorpe to be a sufficient final piece?Let’s be honest. There’s no way to know what the Rockies would ask for. Maybe instead of four similar prospects, they may ask for one big prospect with one lesser prospect, or maybe the fourth player in this deal could be two other players. SUMMARY The Twins - and every team in baseball - want to find the next Gerrit Cole.Rockies ace Jon Gray has a lot of similarities to Gerrit Cole pre-trade, both statistically and in terms of stuff.The Twins - and every team in baseball - will need to attempt to evaluate if they have ways that could make Gray take the next step toward becoming an elite starter.Determine how much your team is willing to trade in exchange for Jon Gray (and then go-ahead and try to convince the Rockies that it is enough).Hope! Hey, just because there are similarities between pitchers (age, size, stats and stuff) does not necessarily mean that they will have the same success. There is a lot of luck involved. But Derek Falvey has a reputation for developing pitchers. Wes Johnson got a lot of credit for some of the Twins pitching successes and improvements in 2019.If nothing else, it’s fun to think about. Finding the next Gerrit Cole is half the battle. Helping him develop into that pitcher is another thing. Maybe there are red flags, concerns about Jon Gray specifically. Maybe there are other issues that the Twins need to factor and consider. We can’t know it all, but as fans, we’ve been waiting for a true Ace since Johan Santana. Click here to view the article

There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins greatest need this offseason is pitching. The front office has stated their focus will be on arms defined as “impact” and filling out a rotation that’s virtually empty is a must. With the premiere arms having plenty of suitors, the Twins could turn to what they did best in 2019.Every team in baseball should be salivating at the thought of adding either Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg to their starting rotation. Young aces simply don’t hit the free agent market often, and when they do the costs will be substantial. Minnesota can afford either (and even both), but I’d expect Cole to look at the West Coast or New York, while Strasburg returns to D.C. with on a hefty raise. That doesn’t mean all is lost for the Twins, but how they react is where this narrative begins. Going into 2019 the front office suggested a wait and see approach that was built on the premise of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano establishing their value. The former looks the part of a star (when healthy), and the latter showed he’s one of the best power hitters in the game. Neither of them was a linchpin in the 101-win season though, and Rocco Baldelli got strong performance by utilizing the full sum of his parts. Buxton and Sano can be key cogs, but the winning was as much alongside them as opposed to being because of them. Now with an established infrastructure of developmental talent, a big-league roster capable of competing with anyone, and opportunity as abundant as it may ever be, it’s time to follow in the footsteps of recent World Series winners and begin to capitalize on the window. I’d hardly be shocked if the win total takes a slight step backwards, but the goal is an extended presence into October. Here’s how that happens in 2020: 1. Cron is the odd man out in arbitration deals. After a nagging thumb injury in 2019, Cron should be all systems go in 2020. He was great before the thumb issue flared up, and I certainly have no problem with the Twins offering him an arbitration deal. Unfortunately, this projection includes a roster crunch, so C.J. becomes the lone arbitration-eligible player to not be tendered a new deal. 2. Make Anthony Rendon the big splash paying him $33 million for eight years. Last offseason I liked the idea of Josh Donaldson coming to the Twins. He was a former superstar and could be had at a discount. Going home to Georgia he had a very good bounce-back year. With plenty of money to spend, and the top two pitchers likely off the board, the next superstar opportunity is a better one. Anthony Rendon is an MVP-level talent, has been incredibly consistent, and joins one of the best lineups in baseball. I’m not sure Miguel Sano needs to move across the diamond yet, but there’s no reason this isn’t a good enough opportunity for him to do so. 3. Sign Zack Wheeler to a four-year, $72 million contract. At the top of Minnesota’s impact pitching list should be Zack Wheeler. Hiss secondary numbers are drool-inducing, and he’s already got plenty of velocity for Wes Johnson to work with. Allowing the Twins pitching coach to pull more from the 29-year-old and Baldelli would have a very impressive one-two punch at the top of his rotation. 4. Sign Jake Odorizzi to a three-year, $36 million contract. The Twins smartly handed Odorizzi a qualifying offer. He could take that and return at $17.8 million which would be just fine. It may also ward off some competition for his services, keeping the bidding on a longer-term deal. Two-years doesn’t seem enticing for the former Rays hurler if the alternative is a gaudy one-year pact, so go three and bolster the middle of the group. 5. Trade Eddie Rosario and Jhoan Duran to the Colorado Rockies for Jon Gray. Under team control for two more years, the former third overall pick is where I’m setting my sights in a swap for the Minnesota outfielder. Rosario can probably hit a boatload of bombas in the Rockies, while Gray can be expected to build on a career year in 2019. His FIP has suggested there’s more than the ERA has told us for a few years, and while the walks could be reduced, the strikeout stuff is going to play anywhere. At worst you’ve got a number four starter, and the upside is a guy to contend with Wheeler and Jose Berrios at the top. Duran was the main piece in the Eduardo Escobar deal, and he looked impressive during his first full season in the organization. 6. Sign Alex Gordon to a one-year, $2 million contract. Prioritizing defense is a must for the Twins in 2020. With Eddie Rosario gone, adding another plus-glove into the outfield mix as depth makes a lot of sense. Gordon isn’t the player he once was, but he’s still above average in the field and can play left as often as Marwin Gonzalez is elsewhere. Ideally, I’d like some center field depth, but I’d tell Max Kepler and Jake Cave to be as prepared as possible coming into spring training. Gordon is done with his massive Royals payday, and the $4 million buyout should reduce his 2020 ask as well. 7. Sign Robinson Chirinos to a one-year, $6 million contract. I’d be fine with Jason Castro returning on this same exact deal, if he’s open to it. Chirinos is an excellent backstop with a strong bat, and seemingly an impressive clubhouse presence. He recently wrapped up a season coming just shy of winning a World Series and could help push Minnesota toward that same exact goal. 8. Sign Drew Pomeranz and Sergio Romo to one-year deals for $3.5 and $3 million. The former gives Minnesota a second lefty option in the pen, and his former starting experience should allow for some length as well. A reunion with Romo would work in the clubhouse, and his slider is still as devastating as ever. Neither represent earth-shattering pen arms, but this is the easiest avenue toward improvement. Summary The most prolific power offense in the history of baseball returns in 2020, but with an added boost. Eddie Rosario ends up being dangled to acquire pitching but getting the best position player on the market makes up for that and then some. Rendon’s bat plays, and his glove may be even more important. I like Marwin in the outfield more than on the dirt, and Alex Gordon provides a defense-first bench option that the Twins haven’t had. Yes, the outfield prospects are close, but there’s still a clear path to playing time, and the Opening Day roster starts in a very good place. Download attachment: Lineup.PNG From a pitching perspective it’s a season of change. Odorizzi is back with Berrios, but the impact is felt from outside the organization. Wheeler represents a second bullet for Minnesota to mold into an ace, and he can bolster the top of the staff even if he doesn’t get there. Gray should benefit from leaving the Rockies, and a better organization can most certainly take his stuff up another level. I struggled with the idea of giving Brusdar Graterol a rotation spot out of the gate. He has never pitched more than 102 innings in a season, is coming off just 61 in 2019, and is still just 21-years-old. Ideally, he starts at Triple-A and settles back into starting. That said, I like his arm a good deal better than any fringe fifth starter, and if Minnesota deems that he beats out the likes of Lewis Thorpe then take off the training wheels. Download attachment: Rotation.PNG If there’s a weak spot to this roster it’s the same area 2019 started out with. The relief corps is composed of internally developed arms, which is only a strength if regression is to be denied. Rogers, May, Duffey, and Littell all return as near certainties. Stashak earned himself an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster, and Devin Smeltzer could be a nice long man in relief. Free agents, one returning, complete the group and Pomeranz looks to have some serious upside. Should the Twins find themselves cycling through arms too often out of the pen, or if there’s a lack of production, relief arms at the deadline are among the most easily acquirable commodities. Download attachment: Bullpen.PNG When the dust settles this puts the Opening Day payroll at $143.4 million. That’s almost a $30 million jump from 2019, and a step up from the previous high-water mark in 2018 as well. This is the time to build, and this plan leaves the Twins with opportunity to add more in 2021 and puts forth a very strong group to defend their AL Central Division title. ~~~ What would your blueprint look like for the Twins this winter? Download your copy of the Offseason Handbook and use it to construct a champion. Share your vision for discussion in our Create a Blueprint forum thread. Meanwhile, stay tuned to TD as our writers will be formulating offseason plans from different perspectives all week long. Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins are going to have money to spend and will need to spend to replenish the roster. What feels most Minnesotan is that the Twins will stretch those dollars as far as possible and sign a number of mid level free agents. What if they didn’t do that? What if the Twins were the team to bring in big salary and big names in a big trade. Here is what an offseason might look like if the Twins are able to bring in current Red Sox outfielder and former MVP Mookie Betts.This blueprint looks at capitalizing on one team's need to cut salary to avoid the luxury tax threshold and enter into the free agent market themselves. Before going too much further, lets lay out the big move and then explain why it may make any sense for the Twins to attempt to put together an offseason centered around such a move. 1. Trade Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Jordan Balazovic and Nick Gordon to the Boston Red Sox for OF Mookie Betts and LHP David Price Un-Minnesota right? The Twins get a top-10 MLB player in Betts who can hit, field and has an MVP on his resume. The major downside for anyone trading for Betts this offseason is that they will only get him for one season. Price may not be the dominant David Price we remember, but if he is healthy, he still has the ability to contribute to a major league starting staff. While his ERA was 4.28 in 2019 his FIP was 3.62 and still has a swinging strike rate above 11%. The concern with Price is his contract and a decrease in velocity. The biggest return the Red Sox get is nearly $60 million in contracts off the books in 2020 and and additional $32 million per season owed to Price the next two seasons. Boston also gets two major league ready pieces in Rosario, who steps into Betts' role, and Sano, who fills their need at first base. With a vacancy at second, Gordon becomes a candidate there, and Balazovic gives the Red Sox a talented and controllable young arm that they covet. It would be great if the Twins didn’t have to give up both Sano and Rosario, but it sounds like the Red Sox are going to want a good haul for Betts to move him. Now for the rest of the moves that help fit those big contracts into the Twins payroll. A payroll that will obviously need to increase but will try and do so within reason. 2. Tender all arbitration-eligible players This becomes necessary to fill roster spots in a relatively affordable way with the extra salary being brought on board. 3. Sign RHP Jake Odorizzi for three years, $36 million Odorizzi will never be an ace but has proven that he can still be a very valuable part to a playoff rotation. The Twins staff also clearly knows how to get that out of him and to continue to allow them to work with Odorizzi will hopefully help maintain if not improve on those results. 4. Sign RHP Sergio Romo for one year, $3 million At $3 million Romo comes in relatively affordably when it comes to quality playoff caliber arms. His personality and experience is also always welcome and with the bulk of the Twins payroll going elsewhere, Romo can continue to mentor and lead the bullpen. 5. Sign Kyle Barraclough for one year, $1 million I personally highlighted Barraclough last week but didn’t expect to actually use him anywhere in a blueprint. Here I am trying to find a bargain bin arm that could bounce back and have an impact for the Twins in the bullpen. The hope here is that Barraclough would be able to reduce his hard hit rate and continue to create swing and misses but with much better results than he had in 2019. 6. Trade OF Akil Baddoo and 2B/3B/OF Travis Blankenhorn to the Rockies for RHP Jon Gray This trade has the potential to be similar to what the Twins did with Odorizzi. Gray had a better season in 2019 than Odorizzi did before the Twins acquired him which is the reason for two prospects in this deal vs. the one when Odorizzi was acquired. Gray pitches with good velocity (96.1 mph) and induces ground balls at a high rate. He certainly can be a back end of the rotation starter, but hopefully the Twins could find the front-line starter the Rockies once thought they had in the right-hander. Gray has team control through 2021 and is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $5.6 million this coming season. SUMMARY The lineup does look to lose a bit in the way of depth in comparison to the 2019 version of the Twins. There is no doubt that Betts makes the top end of the lineup much better. A healthy Cron hopefully contributes more to this lineup than he did down the stretch this past season. If not, there are the likes of Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach that the Twins could figure out how to get in the lineup in his place. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2019-11-11 at 10.19.42 PM.png The starting rotation may still be lacking the true ace that is being sought. Berrios, Price, Odorizzi, and Gray each represent pitchers who have the potential to carry a team. Brusdar Graterol is also a possibility to figure in here. Graterol and Berrios likely represent the best chance for an emerging and dominant ace. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2019-11-11 at 10.34.09 PM.png The hope here is that the bullpen was much better than what we saw of it in the playoffs, whether it was misuse or just bad execution. The 2020 Twins according to this blueprint will mostly need to see continued growth from many of these arms since it is mostly the same group returning. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2019-11-11 at 10.34.19 PM.png Including the $0.5 million buyout for Martin Perez this puts the Twins payroll at $144.8 million. What would make this approach soar is if the front office got permission from ownership to spend even more to make the most of the one year of Betts. Maybe winning baseball for a second season would at least allow for payroll to be added at the trade deadline mid-summer. This approach would admittedly be a gamble. There is a lot going into 2020 and an added contract in Price’s that has the potential to soak up a large chunk of the payroll for the next three seasons. Betts is the type of player that may just be worth the gamble. Check out these other Offseason Blueprints: Building a Bullpenner What would your blueprint look like for the Twins this winter? Download your copy of the Offseason Handbook and use it to construct a champion. Share your vision for discussion in our Create a Blueprint forum thread. Meanwhile, stay tuned to TD as our writers will be formulating offseason plans from different perspectives all week long. Click here to view the article

Today officially marks the beginning of free agency for the 2020 Major League Baseball season. The Minnesota Twins have some serious work to do with four-fifths of their starting rotation up for grabs, and a 100-win season to replicate. Rocco Baldelli will be angling for a second straight AL Central Division title, and the goal for the foreseeable future in Twins Territory will be Postseason berths. While working through a full blueprint to outline a 25-man roster for the Twins I found myself getting hung up on a few key areas. I think we’re going to see a handful of moves that may come as a surprise, and rather than trying to pinpoint each, a better plan of action seemed to come with a top down view. While remaining somewhat specific, here’s how I’d handle things going into 2020: Start with the Rotation: Jose Berrios is locked in. I’d try to get him extended on a long-term deal again. Minnesota has approached his camp previously, but talks have not moved forward. He’s a few steps from a Cy Young arm, and at that point, he won’t have interest in avoiding the open market. Even if the Twins offer Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg significantly over market rate, I’d imagine both say no. Falvey should be all in on both arms, but the lure of a bigger market or home on the west coast probably proves too strong. This is where you pivot. Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher available in the Twins wheelhouse, and he’s a very good one. Make him a priority and get that done as soon as possible. Two 2019 options should also be leveraged as possible returnees. Minnesota should offer both Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda a qualifying offer. The former could turn that into a two or three year deal while the later could then be had at roughly $13 million accounting for his remaining suspension. The final rotation spot would then be filled out by a trade. There’s too much firepower on the Twins farm not to execute something, and Eddie Rosario represents an expendable big-league asset. Utilize the depth to go and get someone like Jon Gray, Joe Musgrove, or Matt Boyd. Aiming even higher to a proven commodity as Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson suggested might be interesting as well. Add to the Lineup: It’s fair to assume that regression is going to hit for the 2020 Twins. What’s also worth noting is that any changes to the baseball will have a widespread impact. Minnesota hit bombas because of a strong plate approach, and that will play regardless of what composition the baseball encompasses. That being said, a great deterrent to a step backwards offensively is adding more offense. The Twins have a boatload, something like $70 million, to spend this offseason. With Wheeler being the likely high-water mark on the mound, there’s going to be plenty to go around. Instead of overpaying similar candidates on the bump, choose the guy(s) that makes the most financial sense add allocate the funds towards high impact help elsewhere. I’ve talked myself into this, look at Anthony Rendon. The Twins could bring back C.J. Cron, and barring better wrist health, he should see a nice boost. They could also move Miguel Sano across the diamond and angle for a substantial upgrade at the hot corner with some intriguing options. Rendon is an MVP-type superstar and has plenty of good years ahead of him. I’m not as keen on 34-year-old Josh Donaldson as I was last year, because he’ll now want a multi-year deal, but that’s not a bad option either. If the Cubs are truly inclined to move Kris Bryant, and there’s a belief in his health, I’d absolutely explore that scenario as well. At the end of the day it comes down to this; if you can’t spend the money on pitching, you need to spend it elsewhere and aiming high is far better than adding quantity. Rounding out the offense would include an additional outfielder and a catcher. Whether or not Eddie Rosario is traded a guy that could be had on a one-year deal makes sense. I like the idea of Corey Dickerson as a corner outfielder with on-base skills and some pop. It doesn’t hurt that he’s also a very strong defender, which is a facet of the game Minnesota needs to improve on. Cameron Maybin is also somewhat intriguing with the ability to play some centerfield. Behind the plate you operate with Mitch Garver as the starter. He needs to play more often than he did in 2019, but there could be a decent amount of truth to him being at his best with significant rest. Pairing him with a nice defender that can also hit makes sense and going the route of former Houston Astro Robinson Chirinos is to my liking. He’s got good on base skills, hits better than a traditional catcher, and isn’t a hack behind the plate. Shore up the Bullpen: Coming out of the winter and into Spring Training there was nothing more problematic than Minnesota’s bullpen. It looked the part of a dumpster fire that was going to struggle getting anyone out. Then the development of some internal arms took place and Baldelli’s group was one of the best in baseball down the stretch. Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May have all worked their way into a circle of trust. Wes Johnson will still need three or four other arms to complete the group, however. Rather than pushing Lewis Thorpe or Brusdar Graterol to the pen full time, bringing in some hired guns is the way to go. Sergio Romo should be welcomed back, but there’s no reason to pigeonhole that move either. Drew Pomeranz could be a nice second lefty, and any number of arms make sense to round out the group. Will Smith is the cream of the crop, but Will Harris and Jake Diekman types have purpose as well. To summarize how I’d plan I’ll say this: For the first time in a while, spend. The window is open, you know what you have, and the prospect depth is coming close to maturation. Whether you can land the big fish on the mound or not is always going to be tough with plenty of suitors and a less-than-ideal-destination, but those resources need to go elsewhere then. Minnesota should clear $140 million in payroll this winter, and $150 million is far from unrealistic. Do as much as you can on the mound, and then look to make the additional impact throughout the roster. Minnesota is no longer in a wait and see mode. The capability of youth has been understood, the veterans have provided plenty of production, and the circumstances are now on your side. There’s been complaints for years that have been somewhat misguided without that trifecta being a reality. In 2020, there’s nothing holding the organization back but itself, and it’s time to remove that barrier. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

If the Minnesota Twins are going to put a focus on adding impact pitching this offseason, the reality is they’ll need to venture outside of free agency to accomplish their goals. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg represent commodities rarely seen on the open market, and they both could be called home to California. I definitely am in on making Zack Wheeler an offer he can’t turn down, but things get messy from there. With prospect capital and some expendable big leaguers, the time to swing a deal appears ideal as well. There’s little reason for any team to part with their best pitcher regardless of current situation. Luis Castillo is an absolute stud in Cincinnati, but the Reds just made a move to get Trevor Bauer last season. Instead of targeting the slam dunk, Minnesota needs to go and find their version of Cole or Justin Verlander or follow the White Sox footsteps in acquiring a guy like Lucas Giolito. All those arms are among the best in the game, but that same definition couldn’t be applied when they switched teams. So, where do the Twins turn their focus? Colorado Rockies- Jon Gray or German Marquez Under team control for two more seasons, Gray was the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. He has sandwiched two strong seasons around a clunker over the course of the last three. The strikeouts are there, and so too is the velocity. Walks are a bit problematic, and the longball has hurt him while playing at Coors Field. Get him to Target Field and let Wes Johnson work some magic. A teammate of Gray, German Marquez is also very intriguing. He’s younger, under team control for a year longer, and arguably has the better profile. Another strikeout arm, who possesses strong command, has been bit heavily by the longball in Colorado. Despite the 4.76 ERA in 2019, Marquez owned a 3.54 xFIP which followed up a 3.10 mark the year prior. He was my dark horse Cy Young pick this season, and he absolutely looked the part for stretches. Pittsburgh Pirates- Joe Musgrove Another former first round pick, Musgrove would be on his third team if dealt, but he too is not a free agent until 2023. He’s never posted a sub 4.00 ERA and the K/9 has never entered 9.0 territory. He doesn’t issue many walks, is moderate with the home run, and could be just a few tweaks from the next step. His hard-hit rate spiked to a career worst 37% this season, but he’s never generated more whiffs. If the Twins believe in their pitching infrastructure, here’s another arm they could salivate about working with. Detroit Tigers- Matthew Boyd The end result couldn’t be further from where he was at the midway point, but Boyd’s final 11.6 K/9 is nasty. He has yet to put it together over the course of a full season, but 2019 was definitely the closest he’s been, and the 3.88 xFIP tells a fairer story. You may pay a premium dealing within the division, but Detroit isn’t going to be good before Boyd hits free agency in 2023. He was dangled at the deadline, and the winter may provide more opportunity. Atlanta Braves- Max Fried or Mike Foltynewicz Brian Snitker has his ace in the form of Mike Soroka. This team is going to be good for a while, but they also have some very real holes to fill. Fried would have a massive price tag being under team control through 2024, but his first full season as a starter went well. The 4.02 ERA was backed by a 3.72 FIP and 3.32 xFIP. He has strikeout stuff and was able to take a big step forward in the command department. Having been demoted to Triple-A, and roughed up in his final Postseason appearance, Mike Foltynewicz may benefit from a change of scenery. After generating Cy Young votes a season ago, he put up a 4.54 ERA in 2019. After heading to the farm with a 6.37 mark through June, Folty returned to the tune of a 2.65 ERA across his final 10 starts. If there’s an opportunity to take advantage here, Minnesota would be wise to do so. Arizona Diamondbacks- Robbie Ray Another guy that was talked about heavily during the deadline, Ray is entering the final year of arbitration eligibility. He’s posted a 12.0 K/9 or better for the past three seasons, and while durability concerns persist, he’s electric while on the bump. The walk and home run rates aren’t pretty, but given the length of his contract, he could also have one of the lower acquisition costs across moveable assets. This Twins front office is also familiar with Arizona having swung the Eduardo Escobar deal a couple of seasons ago. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins are in store for a starting rotation overhaul this offseason with only Jose Berrios and Martin Perez under contract. The free agent market will definitely be explored, but the area the Twins could land a top of the rotation starter might be the trade market. With the opportunity to win wide open along with an abundance of prospects, the time is now for Falvey and Levine to make a trade.I will be listing four starters the Twins could acquire via trade along with their age, team and free agency year. While none of them are Noah Sydergaard or Max Scherzer, the trades I listed would definitely help the team. Detroit Tigers: Matthew Boyd, 28, 2023 Free Agent 2019 statistics: 4.56 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 4.76 K/BB, 3.3 WARBoyd will be very interesting to monitor over the offseason. He was being shopped at the trade deadline, but Detroit was persistent on wanting major league talent which teams in contention were obviously reluctant to part ways with. The hope is that now, after a rough second half (5.51 ERA), the price will drop enough for a team to acquire him. The Tigers southpaw is extremely talented, but his main problem was giving up the long ball (worst HR/9 in MLB at 1.89). He held an elite 11.56 K/9 while his walk rate dropped from 2018. Boyd would hold a top two or three spot in the rotation until 2023. Now it just depends on what Detroit is asking for. Colorado Rockies: Jon Gray, 27, 2022 Free Agent 2019 statistics: 3.84 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2.68 K/BB, 2.9 WARThe Rockies are coming off a 91-loss season and could be looking to part ways with a starting pitcher. Gray would be a nice piece for the middle of the Twins rotation, and the Rockies could be a solid team for Eddie Rosario to potentially join because of Coors Field. A trade for Gray would likely require three players who can contribute now or very soon. Pittsburgh Pirates: Joe Musgrove, 26, 2023 Free Agent 2019 statistics: 4.44 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 4.03 K/BB, 3.3 WARMusgrove is someone whom no one is really talking about, and I first heard his name from Twins Daily contributor Matt Braun on Twitter. He is coming off his best season and at 26-years-old with three years of control, he would slide right in to the long-term rotation plans. He has a fastball/sinker combo that was hit hard last season, but an excellent slider and changeup make for an interesting Wes Johnson fix. Arizona Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray. 28, 2021 Free Agent 2019 statistics: 4.34 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 2.4 WARRobbie Ray is interesting because he would be a one-year rental, but if the Diamondbacks are open to selling him for a small price then it would be a solid move. Ray is someone I was really hoping the Twins would acquire at the deadline, but ultimately the price was just too high. Hopefully now that Arizona is unlikely to win in 2020, he will be easier to acquire and could slide in as an excellent number four starter. Click here to view the article