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With defense being more crucial than ever after the changes to the shift rules, the Twins are more positioned to benefit than any other team in baseball. Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports Neither is inherently evil, whether it's the pitch clock or your politics. The application of both is where it can get ugly quickly, and things may start to get a little awkward at family gatherings, and yes, I'm still talking about the pitch clock. Love it or hate it, the new rules are here for 2023, and the Twins have built a team that can take advantage of the new era of baseball. With the shift changes, the pick-off rules, bigger bases, and the fact that the full season for an MLB player is roughly 150 games, the Twins used these facts to help coordinate roster moves. The Twins offseason was a roller coaster ride for shmucks like me trying to figure out what was going on with this team. Now that the dust has settled, the picture is more visible. The front office has constructed a team with elite defense and some left-handed bats that can benefit from an open right side for the first time in their careers. Defensively, teams with elite athletes that can cover ground and make superstar plays, rather than having a spray chart in their back pocket telling them where to play to create outs, will benefit the most. Athletes will be back making more outs, not data points. Having an elite defensive shortstop becomes way more attractive now that there will be a premium on being able to range to the left and right and make big-time throws. Now that shortstops can't swing to the other side of second base, we will see Carlos Correa (aka C4) ranging to his left and making that spin throw on the right side of second base a couple of times this year. I'm excited to see shortstops limited in their shifting ability and see some of the most impressive athletes in the world be able to show it off. The Twins get to be, arguably, the biggest beneficiary. The Twins also brought in Joey Gallo, who we have seen with a wider stance, driving the ball to all fields early in spring. Even this tiny sample size is encouraging. With no shift and pitchers not having as much incentive to throw the cutter inside because there is no iron curtain on the right side, we could see Gallo finally flourish. With a simplified Gallo approach, fans may see a fun uptick from your dad's least favorite player (trademark pending). Joey Gallo also fits the mold of the elite defenders that the team has placed a high value on; Michael A Taylor and the already-established Kepler/Buxton outfield combo may be worthy of a Soul Patrol-level nickname. The shift doesn't impact the outfield as much, but it's worth noting that the Twins attacked the defensive side of this team with the thought of improving their offense too, or the banned shift may provide that offensive uptick on its own. Every team in the league has abandoned the idea of a guy playing 162 games. (In 2022, only Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson and shortstop Dansby Swanson played in all 162 games.) The depth and positional flexibility will make Baldelli's job pretty simple (that thought may get the old-timers to sleep at night). The Twins have solid defenders that can play all over. Farmer, Gordon, Solano, Gallo, Kirilloff, Miranda, and Taylor (fans will see him and Buxton in the same outfield) can all play multiple positions. So much tinkering can be done with this lineup and not lose the edge created defensively. There are quality options when a player gets a day off due to injuries, rest, or just putting the best nine out there on a given day. The Twins aren't a finished product as it stands right now. More moves may be coming, but the Minnesota Twins will defend as well as anybody in the league as a unit. Great defense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark has the potential to be a phenomenal winning formula. It's getting to be time for the rubber to meet the road. I'm excited to start seeing the payoff of all the moves and top-tier defense returning in the MLB. There is no doubt in my mind that Twins management took the new rules into account when building an elite defensive ball club for 2023. Regarding the rule changes, you can see the glass half empty or half full, but we should know by now that the Twins front office sees a glass that was made too big. They dealt with reality and facts and used that logic to create a competitive product for 2023. Go, Twins! View full article

I visited the future, and you won't believe what I saw! Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Jeff Hanisch, Jordan Johnson – USA Today Sports After reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out. What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season. Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team? Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs. Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial. Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025. A Star is Born While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox. Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees. One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins! What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins! View full article

No team can have a perfect roster heading into the season. For the Twins, there are weak spots on the roster, but there is hope for some of those positions. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7 Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million. Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1 Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9 FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Who's on first? This year, the question shapes up as more of an existential dilemma for the Twins than comedic riff. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff Likely Backup: Joey Gallo Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato THE GOOD In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup. Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently. We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing. Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence. Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first. Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline. Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects. THE BAD As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages. Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons. Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff. It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong. The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year. Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer. Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year. THE BOTTOM LINE Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. "We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.) Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash. The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect. View full article

Highlights from the Minnesota Twins spring training split squad action Sunday. Jose Miranda hit a pair of home runs in one game while Joey Gallo, Max Kepler and prospect Kala'i Rosario homered in the other. Also included are some highlights of Pablo López, Tyler Mahle, Carlos Correa, Jose Salas and much more. View full video

FORT MYERS - Kenta's back! Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins faced an early split-squad set of games on Saturday afternoon to kick off the start of their 2023 Grapefruit League season. In the home game, Kenta Maeda returned to the mound after missing the 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and pitched a scoreless first inning. Lineup The Twins only had two anticipated regular position players in their home lineup: Joey Gallo led off and Max Kepler batted cleanup. However, they also had three other players practically guaranteed (health permitting, knock on wood) to make the 26-man roster: Ryan Jeffers at catcher, Kyle Farmer at shortstop and Michael A Taylor patrolled center field. The lineup also included Twins’ top prospects Edouard Julien (Twins Daily’s #5 prospect) and Brooks Lee (Twins Daily’s #1 prospect), who joined the lineup late when catcher Christian Vazquez was pulled from the lineup due to illness. Maeda’s Return But the most anticipated Twins player was Maeda. Twins fans had hoped to see him last September, perhaps in a relief role. But as team injuries and the season jointly spun out of control, all parties decided to wait until this spring for his return. Maeda was greeted rudely by Rays outfield prospect Josh Lowe with a double into the gap that went off of Joey Gallo’s glove. The good news? It was on a 90.8 mph fastball by Maeda showing velocity already near to what he threw pre-surgery. Lowe was slo unable to advance from second base, as Maeda escaped the inning on two ground balls and a strikeout, throwing 13 pitches, ten for strikes. That was the end of his day, as planned. "He was happy with his stuff", Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said after the game. "I was happy with his stuff. [Twins pitching coach] Pete [Maki] was happy with his stuff. So a very successful day and one we've been waiting a very long time for," The Shift Ban Both regulars in the lineup for the Twins, Gallo and Kepler, could be positively impacted by MLB’s limitation of “the shift” this year. In the first inning, we got a taste of what we might see. It’s not totally clear the results would have been any different, but both plays likely were completed differently than they would have been. The new limitation has two parts that could affect left-handed hitters. First, the shortstop can no longer play on the other side (the first base side) of second base. Second, second baseman can no longer play in short right field. He must remain on the infield dirt. For left-handed pull-hitters, the theory is this could mean more ground balls scooting through the right side of the infield for hits. Alas, that was not the case for Kepler, whose ground ball was fielded by the second baseman to the right of the bag and neatly flipped to the shortstop for a double-play to end the inning. It likely would have been fielded by the shortstop last year, but the double play might not have been as automatic. On the other hand, Gallo hit a soft line drive to right field over the first baseman’s head for a single. It’s not clear if that result would have been any different had the second baseman been deeper and on the grass – he would have had to range far to his left to get there – but it’s possible. It certainly seem like it would have been fielded by him instead of by the right-fielder. The next inning, we saw another impact of the new rule. Rays second baseman Vidal Brujan lined up too far over to the left side of the infield. It was called by the umpire, and as a result, the batter – Farmer – was awarded a ball. But with the umpires, players and coaches still working out the communication of the call, it was originally thought that a balk had been called, which would have scored Gallo from third base. After a discussion at home plate with the umpire, he returned to third base and was driven home on a sacrifice fly. Facing Southpaws We also got a taste of what we might see when the Twins face left-handed pitching this year. With the exception of Nick Gordon, the Twins entire “bench” is right-handed, and it sounds like Rocco intends to play matchups with them frequently, including in the starting lineup. It certainly worked on Saturday. The bottom of the lineup featured two non-roster invitees signed as minor league free agents. Switch-hitter Willi Castro is a 25-year-old infielder from the Tigers organization who started at third base. Tyler White, a 32-year-old, who has spent the last couple years in Triple-A, started at first base. But they looked like All-stars against Rays left-handed reliever Josh Fleming. Castro tripled to deep center and White homered. It blew the game open soon after it started, contributing to a 6-0 lead after just two innings. The Other Game Meanwhile, the Twins had another game going on in Sarasota vs the Orioles, with Louie Varland starting. Varland, Twins Daily's #9 prospect, threw two scoreless innings, but things turned sour in the second half of the game and the Twins fell 10-5. Mark Contreras and prospect Kala'i Rosario each homered for the Twins. Nick Gordon started the game with a triple and scored on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Austin Martin. It was interesting to note that the Twins had Gordon start at shortstop with Martin at second base. Martin (Twins Daily's #10 prospect) was hit by a pitch in his next plate appearance, but he must have been OK because he stole second base on the next pitch. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner (Twins Daily's #11 prospect) went a combined 0-for-5 with a walk and five strikeouts. Aaron Sabato walked three times, and one of the newest Twins prospects, Jose Salas (Twins Daily's #8 prospect) walked twice. Randy Dobnak gave up one run despite two hits and two walks in his two innings of work. For the Orioles, Terrin Vavra - the youngest son of former Twins hitting coach and bench coach Joe Vavra - went 2-for-3 with a ground-rule double and a long home run. Curtis Terry, who spent last spring with the Twins, hit a three-run homer off of Brock Stewart. One of Baltimore's top prospects, Heston Kjerstad hit two home runs. Chris Vallimont gave up one run over two innings. Sauk Rapids native Anthony Bemboom started behind the plate for the O's and went 0-for-2. Next Up The team makes a long trek up to Clearwater to play the Phillies on Sunday. Joe Ryan will be starting for the Twins. The plan is for Jose Miranda to make the trip and hit third as the designated hitter. Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee should be in the lineup again, too. View full article

Project systems can be flawed in overvaluing some players and not valuing others as highly. For the Twins to be successful, these four players need to outperform their projections. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Leading into the 2023 season, fans can analyze different projection systems to predict the performance of any big-league team. For this article, Steamer projections will be featured. According to MLB.com, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. Steamer projects the Twins' top five position players as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez. On the mound, the top five pitchers are all starters, including Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. It would be easy to target any of those players and say they need to outperform their projections, but let's dig deeper into the roster. Joey Gallo, OF 2023 Steamer Projection: .188/.313/.393, 105 wRC+, 2.7 Off, -6.3 Def, 1.1 WAR The Twins signed Gallo to a one-year, $11 million deal in hopes of him returning to the All-Star caliber player he was in previous seasons. He's coming off his worst professional season, as he posted a .638 OPS and a 79 OPS+ over 126 games for the Yankees and the Dodgers. His projected slugging percentage is 76 points below his career average, which is one area he will need to outperform his projection. His defensive total also seems extremely low for a player known as a strong defender. Last year, he posted a -1.3 Def, his lowest total since 2017. Trevor Larnach, OF 2023 Steamer Projection: .225/.306/.373, 96 wRC+, -1.9 OF, -5.3 Def, 0.3 WAR Over the last two seasons, Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries, including a hand injury and a core muscle injury. When healthy, his powerful bat looks like it should be penciled into the middle of the Twins line-up. In 16 games last June, he posted a 1.077 OPS with six doubles and three home runs. Twins Daily's most recent roster projection has Larnach pegged to start the year at Triple-A. He will have to prove he is healthy and hit his way back to the big-league roster. Injuries will impact the Twins' outfield, and he needs to be ready when promoted. Jorge Alcala, RP 2023 Steamer Projection: 54 IP, 3.75 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.2 WAR Alcala missed nearly all of the 2022 season after having arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. In 2021, Alcala posted a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 over 59 2/3 innings while earning opportunities in a late-inning role. The Twins didn't add anyone to the bullpen this winter, which makes Alcala's return even more critical. He's already produced more than 0.2 WAR in multiple big-league seasons, so that projection is the most significant discrepancy. If Alcala can outperform his projections, he may help to revitalize a core bullpen group that struggled through much of the first half of 2022. Jorge Lopez, RP 2023 Steamer Projection: 70 IP, 3.58 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.4 WAR Steamer projects Lopez to provide the fourth-highest WAR total among Twins relievers. It's reasonable to think that the Twins would be disappointed in that result. Minnesota surrendered four pitching prospects (including Cade Povich) because they felt Lopez could upgrade the bullpen for multiple seasons. He struggled after the trade with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 23 appearances. The Twins won't follow a traditional closer model, but Lopez will likely get save opportunities, primarily if Jhoan Duran is used in high-leverage situations earlier than the ninth inning. Which player is most likely to outperform their Steamer projection? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

What did our mighty machine overlord spit out about the 2023 seasons of several Minnesota Twins hitters? Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus—one of baseball's leading analysis site—released their PECOTA projections for every player in MLB. PECOTA predicts nearly everything; minor stats like caught stealing, hit by pitch, and triples emanate from its crystal ball along with more crucial numbers like slugging and BABIP. For this article, we will focus on DRC+ and WARP. Below are Minnesota’s likely opening day position players (plus Royce Lewis) along with their position, DRC+, WARP, and player comp. You can read more about DRC+ here, but to oversimplify, it’s a play off Fangraphs’ wRC+ that also considers inputs like pitcher quality and play outcome relative to the stadium; a hit off Jacob deGrom is worth more than a hit off a position player, after all. 100 is league average, with each point in either direction standing as a percent in relation to the average. If that doesn’t make sense: Byron Buxton’s 119 projection means he will be 19% better than the average hitter. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR; 2.0 is considered an average player. Note: These are the 50% projections, meaning each player has a coin flip’s chance of beating or falling behind their projection. Alright! We have some zesty numbers above. I’m struck by Jorge Polanco standing as an equal with Carlos Correa (they were ranked 44 and 45, respectively) as they share an identical DRC+ projection. Cody Christie wrote that Polanco is Minnesota’s most underrated player, and he may be correct. Correa’s projection appears surprisingly tepid, given that he’s bested a 117 DRC+ in his last two seasons. The next surprise is Joey Gallo. Despite Gallo owning one of the most extreme profiles in baseball, PECOTA sees his 2022 as something of a fluke, and the machine hands him a generous 107 DRC+ projection. I think the Twins would be glad to receive that kind of production from Gallo. His comp is spot-on. Now, on to some disappointments. Nick Gordon’s 86 DRC+ appears low, but PECOTA is typically suspicious of high strikeout/high BABIP players. It’s a tricky balancing act—any drop in power kills his entire profile—but it’s not impossible for him to succeed; Gordon will need to prove himself again in 2023. Then, Trevor Larnach. I scrolled through about 1500 players before finding Larnach munching on algae at the bottom of the list, impressing no one with an 85 DRC+. He suffers from a similar ailment as Gordon: producing with a compromised strikeout-fueled skillset, but he also lacks the playing time to prove his system works. To end this article, we’ll go over a few fun projections. PECOTA loves what Yunior Severino cooked up in the minors last season, handing him a 97 DRC+ despite just a handful of games in the high minors. Jose Salas—part of Minnesota’s return for Luis Arraez—earns a 0.7 WARP projection despite a putrid offensive line; the machine must love his defense. PECOTA sees something in Jair Camargo’s profile; he earned a 0.4 WARP projection despite traveling in the same boat as Yunior Severino. And finally… 36-year-old ByungHo Park has a 99 DRC+ projection. Legends never die. Any other numbers catch your eye? Are there any projections not covered in this article you would like to know about? Leave a comment and start the discussion. Note: Baseball Prospectus tinkers with PECOTA until the start of the season; these numbers were taken on February 14th and may not match future projections. Also, if you question PECOTA's value, Rob Mains wrote about how successful the machine is and where it fails. View full article

The Twins have added depth at multiple positions on the roster, but trading Luis Arraez leaves a hole to fill. One position might be the key to the Twins' line-up firing on all cylinders during the 2023 campaign. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Sports Not all fans approved of the Twins trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Arraez was a fan favorite, and there are multiple reasons the club was willing to part with the reigning AL Batting Champion. He has yet to have a true defensive home and doesn't fit the profile of a slugging first baseman. Minnesota has other options at first base in 2023, which might be the most pivotal position on the roster. Presumed Starter Alex Kirilloff returns from a unique off-season surgery where doctors shortened his ulna bone. He has dealt with wrist issues over the last two seasons, and this surgery was the best way to solve these problems. This surgery has shown success with the general population, but there have been few professional athletes to undergo this procedure. There is no guarantee Kirilloff will return to his previous form, but all reports from the Twins have him on track to complete a regular spring training. Projection systems defer in what to expect from Kirilloff in 2023. During his big-league career, Kirilloff hasn't been healthy, which impacts how projections view his potential contributions. ZiPS has Kirilloff hitting .250/.310/.401 (.711) while accumulating 0.9 WAR in 82 games (332 PA). Baseball-Reference projects him to post a .708 OPS in 301 PA. The Twins are hoping to get more than half a season from Kirilloff, so their internal projections are likely higher for his output during the upcoming season. Other First Base Options Minnesota can use Joey Gallo at first base, but he provides much of his value with Gold Glove-caliber outfield defense. He can likely be a strong defender at first, but the Twins' best defensive alignment has him in a corner outfield spot. Gallo has played over 745 innings at first base in his career, but most of those innings came in 2017 or earlier. His offensive profile fits at first base, so he is a fallback option if Kirilloff misses time in 2023. Jose Miranda got time at first last season, but the Twins want him to be the club's everyday third baseman. He has never been considered a strong defender at third, so first base might be his eventual long-term position. Rocco Baldelli can undoubtedly use a line-up that includes Kyle Farmer at third base with Miranda sliding over to the other corner infield spot. Farmer and Christian Vazquez have played over 100 innings at first base so that they can be emergency options. Offensive Potential Fans may forget that Kirilloff was considered one of baseball's top prospects throughout his professional career. All three major national rankings had him among their top 100 prospects for three consecutive seasons (2019-21), with Baseball America and MLB.com ranking him in the top 15 entering the 2019 season. He was the 2018 TD Minor League Hitter of the Year after he hit .348/.392/.578 (.970) with 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs in 130 games. Kirilloff can still be that type of hitter if his latest wrist surgery proves successful. Minnesota saw flashes of the offensive wunderkind when they sent Kirilloff to St. Paul during the 2022 season. He was struggling to fight through his wrist injury with the Twins, and the club wanted him to rediscover his swing in an environment more suitable for working on mechanical adjustments. He dominated in 35 games by hitting .359/.465/.641 (1.106) with seven doubles and ten home runs. His hot hitting didn't follow him back to the Twins, and he was eventually shut down because of his wrist. The Twins' best line-up against a right-handed starter has Alex Kirilloff at first base with an outfield of Joey Gallo (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), and Max Kepler (RF). If Kirilloff isn't deemed ready, the Twins can move Gallo to first and have one of the other young outfielders (Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner) take his place in a corner outfield spot. Minnesota focused on improving the club's outfield defense this winter, so they may avoid using players that struggle more on the defensive side. If Kirilloff is healthy, Minnesota's line-up is strong at nearly every position, with depth waiting in the wings. The Twins will need to be ready to pivot to other first-base options like Gallo or Miranda if Kirilloff has any setbacks. How important is first base to the Twins line-up this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Some matches are made in heaven. Others are made at One Twins Way. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports When Michael A. Taylor signed with the Twins in January, the defensive outlook on the outfield entered the absurd territory. Taylor is a Gold Glove centerfielder joining an outfield that already features two Gold Glove outfielders in Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo. The three occupy the top three spots in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) since 2020 among outfielders. Max Kepler, a great fielder in his own right (22nd in DRS), is slated to get most of the time in the right field. He joins Buxton and Taylor in the top 9 in Outs Above Average since 2020 (OAA; 8th, 9th, and 6th, respectively). If defensive metrics aren't your thing—they're far from perfect—do this mental exercise. Close your eyes and think of a defensive player that you would rather have at each position. (No, you can't say "Juan Soto," despite his being a Gold Glove finalist in 2022; be honest). The list for each is probably relatively short. To be in that type of position at all three spots is special. Because of the presence of four elite defenders, the Twins will be able to consistently mix and match to put a quality outfield behind their pitchers every day. All four players mentioned above can play serviceable-to-Gold-Glove centerfield. Gallo has won a Gold Glove in both corner positions. Taylor has left and right field experience as a role player in Washington. You can then add to that group reserve outfielders Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach, who have been solid outfielders early in their careers, and Gilberto Celestino at Triple-A, who has the tools to be a good outfielder himself. All listed names except Larnach can provide centerfield defense for the team. If you need more convincing, check out Ted's case for the Minnesota outfield being the best in baseball in 2023 and Theo's discussion on the centerfield depth. I'm not here to make those cases. Instead, I want to make the case that bringing Taylor in to complete an elite outfield defense is a perfect fit for the current roster. Baseball teams, more than teams in almost all other sports, can be built by acquiring the best talent, regardless of fit, given the independence of baseball as a sport. As your uncle or drinking buddy has probably told you at least once, "There's only one ball in the NBA." Baseball doesn't fall victim to that issue. Joey Gallo, for example, was signed this offseason because the front office believed they could get value out of him; roster space be damned. However, not all player acquisitions are based on taking the greatest talent. No team can survive throwing seven left-handed first basemen out into the field, no matter how well they hit the ball. These additions can be need-based complementary, as they depend on the team's current state, altering it to be better. Carlos Correa's signing may fall under the Sign as Much Talent as Possible scheme, but it was also need-based, as it filled a gaping hole at shortstop. The Christian Vazquez signing also falls into the need-based category, as the team lacked a player they felt comfortable relying on for 95 starts at catcher in 2023. Both players are talented but more valuable on a team like the Twins, which had a pressing need at each position. Not all complementary acquisitions are based on need or upgrading at a position, though. Some are more context complementary. Take, for example, the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Big bats and speedy outfielders complement the playing environment in Denver, so finding a player who checks those boxes can be considered a complementary addition because their value to the team goes beyond their true talent. The same idea can apply to personnel already on the team, such as the popular idea early this offseason of finding a left-handed catcher to pair with Ryan Jeffers. Andrelton Simmons is not very useful if there aren't a lot of balls hit in the infield. In that vein, compiling a squad of elite defensive outfielders compliments the current pitching staff quite well. The Twins do not have a groundball pitching staff. Only two pitchers—Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez—qualify as groundball pitchers (greater than 44% groundball percentage, per FanGraphs). Among the 13 pitchers slated to make the Opening Day roster, only five had a fly ball percentage (FB%) lower than average (35%), with Pablo Lopez (33%) being the only starter below 35%. Joe Ryan (54%), Bailey Ober (51%), and Tyler Mahle (48%) each had a sky-high (no pun intended) 2022 FB% in the rotation—higher than the Twin's all-time starting pitcher leader in the statistic, Kevin Slowey (min. 150 IP). Caleb Thielbar (47%) and everybody's favorite fly-ball-giver-upper Emilio Pagan (40%) paced the bullpen in allowing shots into the outfield. The Twins ranked 14th in FB% in 2022 at 37.5%. Extrapolating last year's stats onto Steamer projections for innings thrown in 2023, the pitching staff would have a FB% of 39.3, a rate just below Michael Pineda's career rate with the Twins (39.5%). That 39.3% would rank 9th among teams in 2022. More projected innings from Ober and Mahle would explain the increase, among other minor personnel changes. Will the Twins lead the league in 2023 FB%? Probably not, but they're likely to give up more than the average staff. That fact makes the Taylor trade (and, to a lesser extent, the Gallo signing) more exciting. Elite outfield defense is only beneficial if balls are hit to them at an above-average rate. If the team gives up fly balls at the same rate as Michael Pineda, the outfield will have plenty of balls to track down. Free agent bullpen arms like Matt Wisler (57%) or Matt Moore (39.4%) may even look more appetizing. This newly-constructed outfield helps the Twins as much or more than it would help any team. Although many fans expected the complementary fourth outfielder piece to be a righty with some thump, the Twins zagged to ensure that their outfield defense would be good-to-elite, no matter which of their top 7 outfielders took the field each day. Their fly-ball-happy pitchers will love them for that. Not even raindrops stand a chance. As a bonus bit of fun, can you imagine this zany outfield alignment suggested by Mike Petriello on Twitter featuring Buxton and Taylor roaming the outfield with their elite range and former third baseman Joey Gallo in short right against an extreme-pull lefty? Too bad the Twins have two of the usual suspects playing for them right now. View full article

The Twins had a roster jam and an offseason of moves on the horizon when they dumped Gio Urshela for what was essentially salary relief. Given how the rest of the offseason has played out, this move appears to have been a mistake. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports We’ve received more straightforward news on the Max Kepler front these last few days. After speculation grew regarding the Twins possibly keeping the left-handed outfielder, Dan Hayes reports that Kepler sticking around is likely at this point. It’s been discussed how Max Kepler still has value in the right role to help the Twins if he stays. This news does make us second guess parting with Gio Urshela earlier this winter, however. The Twins decision to trade Gio Urshela was straightforward at the time. Jose Miranda is getting a fair crack at being the everyday third baseman, and Urshela’s projected arbitration salary was a bit high for a player whose role wasn’t certain. They followed it up by signing Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million prove-it deal. This all but cemented the fact that Max Kepler was on the way out, as six left-handed corner outfielders on the 40-man roster is beyond excessive. With the addition of Gallo and Kepler apparently staying around, however, the Twins may have misplayed their hand. It appears the plan with Kepler still being in the mix is for Joey Gallo to play a lot of first base in 2023. With Alex Kirilloff’s health being in question and Gallo having some experience there, it makes sense given the state of the current 40-man roster. Consider however that given Joey Gallo's recent offensive struggles, a fair bit of his floor value comes from his defense in the outfield. Perhaps his offense rebounds to passable levels for a first baseman, but his ability to cover ground and throw out runners on the base paths would be all but nullified by a move to first base. Make no mistake, the debate didn’t have to be Urshela vs Gallo for the first base platoon role. It seemed that the plan was to trade Max Kepler for much of the offseason. The Twins asking price appeared to have been high all along, but given the level of player Kepler is at this point and the context of the roster, it’s confusing why they’d play hardball on his price on the trade market. Urshela was a far more valuable player than Kepler in 2022 by any Wins Above Replacement measure and was essentially given away for free because of his redundancy with Miranda moving over to the hot corner. The irony in this is that the Twins now have Gallo, Larnach, Gordon, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Kepler as left-handed corner outfield options and it appears they haven’t lowered their asking price at all. Kepler has a $10 million option for 2024, but do the Twins really plan on paying that if Kepler’s performance from the last two years continues? The Twins current roster includes a massive left-handed logjam with players like Joey Gallo out of position where his skillset isn’t being maximized. Several young players such as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner who should be nearing their chance to show what they can do are now pushed further down the line by the excessive outfield depth chart. They could have a better platoon partner for Kirilloff and one more right-handed bat in Gio Urshela for less money, but instead, they traded this scenario away for a 19-year-old pitching prospect in the low minors. It’s hard to say there weren’t miscalculations on the Twins part this offseason. Looking at the roster now, it becomes clear that Urshela’s value to the team exceeded the value he carried on the trade market. This is further exacerbated by the Twins appearing to overvalue Kepler on the trade market despite the obvious lack of need for him on the roster. If they valued Kepler this highly, why sign Joey Gallo at all as opposed to keeping Gio Urshela or designating that $11 million to a right-handed hitter with more experience at first base? It’s possible Max Kepler is still traded before the season and that the roster makes a lot more sense on Opening Day. As things stand now, however, it sure looks like dumping Gio Urshela for anything they could get was a mistake. Do you agree? View full article

The Minnesota Twins outfielders coined a phrase “Nothing Falls but Raindrops” a few seasons ago, and while it was fitting, none of them knew what was coming. This collection could be the best in the sport, and it may not even be close. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Yes, gone is Eddie Rosario, and maybe Max Kepler will be jettisoned at some point as well. What stands as truth either way, however, is that Rocco Baldelli should lay claim to having baseball’s best outfield. As always, Byron Buxton needs to stay healthy. That has been the case forever and will continue to be as much. His 92 games last season was the most he has played since 2017, and that was the last time he won a Gold Glove. We aren’t just hoping for a guy to contribute in the field anymore either, as when Buxton is out there, he’s among the best in the game. Now having developed into a Mike Trout or Aaron Judge type on a per-game basis, Buxton represents the gold standard in centerfield. When the Twins brought in Joey Gallo, it immediately made more sense for them to move Kepler. With Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach vying for time on the corners, and all being left handed, the glut had to be reduced somehow. Still, Kepler being parted out for nothing makes little sense. Although the offensive profile is nowhere near that of Buxton’s he contributes to a very similar level on defense. Rating highly by both defensive runs saved and outs above average, Kepler is among the premier players in right field. Gallo is traditionally seen as the slugging bat that is home run or bust. That simplifies his game far more than should be warranted. He is also a strong on-base contributor, and among the best outfielders in the game by his own right. Able to play any of the three spots on the grass, Gallo is quicker than you’d expect given his size, and the arm strength is notable as well. He has two Gold Glove awards to his credit, and neither are simply a byproduct of what he did on offense. Behind the starters is where Minnesota has also made massive strides. Rather than needing to play Jake Cave, or ask Tim Beckham to learn a new position, Michael A. Taylor represents the next man up. His bat has never been anything to write home about, but he represents a Gold Glove caliber centerfield talent, and could start on nearly any other team in baseball. With a desire to keep Buxton off his feet on occasion, filling in with that level of defensive talent is beyond impressive. From there the Twins could turn to either Nick Gordon, who filled in admirably last year, or Gilberto Celestino. Gordon showed a consistent level of development as he worked to acclimate himself in centerfield. His arm strength has been a question at shortstop, but his speed and closing ability played well in the outfield. Now more of a utility talent, being capable on the grass gives him plenty of opportunity. Celestino has always looked the part of a strong defender, and the growth he showed during year two in the big leagues was substantial. There is probably more to unlock with him, and Minnesota should continue to find ways to do so. At the end of the day there won’t be a surefire way to replace the production lost by either Buxton or Gallo if either miss time. Dealing Kepler could hurt should Minnesota need to replace injured bodies. When Spring Training commences though, it’s hard to think of another roster in baseball that can lay claim to the same level of defensive talent. One would hope that Royce Lewis can return this summer and play on the dirt. He found his way to the outfield last year with guys missing time and the roster needing help. The latter part should no longer be an issue, and with Target Field having an expansive amount of space to cover, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have given their pitchers the best players to do it. A season ago Minnesota was a top five unit in the outfield defensively. For 2023, the focus should be 1st or bust. View full article

The Twins haven’t gotten the offers they were hoping for in a Kepler trade, which means he’s likely to be on the Opening Day roster. With nine outfielders on the active roster, what is the role of each player? View full video