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Trade Deadline Thread: Who Are Your Favorite Bullpen Targets?
Cooper Carlson posted an article in Twins
During the Twins game last night, multiple reporters had an interesting quote from Derek Falvey about the state of salary/payroll during this deadline. https://twitter.com/DerekWetmore/status/1154202862907510785?s=20 So the Twins would be willing to take on some money, you say? Well there is one particular reliever who came to mind for a lot of Twins fans including myself, and that is the Kansas City Royals reliever Ian Kennedy. The 34-year-old right-hander is under team control next season but he is owed roughly $16.5 million for that year. The Royals might still maintain some of the salary but the Twins would still be paying quite a bit. That shouldn’t be too big of a problem though, because Kennedy is actually a really good pitcher. He is in his first season as a relief pitcher after twelve up and down seasons as a starter. In 41 appearances this year, Kennedy owns a 3.48 ERA, 2.23 FIP(!), 10.89 K/9, and 2.18 BB/9. He is a solid right hander who will be able to share high leverage innings with Taylor Rogers and as a righty to pair with Rogers, the Twins could utilize their matchup approach to the bullpen even more. Of course if I’m calling, texting, facetiming or writing letters to Kansas City I am looking for a second player to pair with Kennedy, and that would be Lucas Duda. That is a joke, the real second piece the Twins should target is left handed reliever Jake Diekman. A lot of you will be turned off of him after I say this, but I would call him a left handed Trevor May. Diekman has a very good fastball reaching 96 mph that hitters are hitting just .185 against to go with an outstanding 13.28 K/9, but his BB/9 is a frustrating 5.09 so he will either strike you out or walk you. He is just a good pitcher you can put in for the sixth or seventh inning to safely get you to the big guns to finish the game. So what do you think? Would this package from the Royals be good enough to fix the Twins bullpen? Who are your favorite bullpen pieces expected to be available? Discuss that with me in the comments along with some of these other rumors in the deadline discussion. Deadline Discussion Fangraphs put out an article predicting what each team does at the deadline. They have Twins going to the Giants to acquire Madison Bumgarner and for the costly price of Brusdar Graterol and Trevor Larnach, the Twins #3 and #4 prospects respectively. While both are good pitchers, I don’t see the Twins dealing two of their best prospects for a rental starter and a reliever. What do you think? CBS Sports ranked the 50 best trade candidates for this upcoming deadline. The Twins are listed as fits for Austin Brice (#28), Tony Watson (#23), Sam Dyson (#22), Alex Colome (#21), Chris Martin (#20), Shawn Kelley (#19), Ken Giles (#15), Kirby Yates (#13), Trevor Bauer (#6), Mike Minor (#5) and Madison Bumgarner (#4). Who would you like to see from this list? Here at Twins Daily, Seth posted the first Trade Deadline Thread with some other interesting links from Ken Rosenthal among other posts. Also at Twins Daily, Matt and I gave our perfect trade deadline scenarios on our Leading Off Podcast, so just skip to the 46 minute mark for that. I guarantee there is no better place to find everything you need for the Twins and their upcoming trade deadline than right here at Twins Daily. Now come join me in the comments and let’s discuss the Royals package deal, the Mad Bum/Sam Dyson idea and the many other players linked to the Twins!- 51 comments
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A couple weeks ago we wrapped up a bullpen target series. There’s more than a handful of guys profiled, and the acquisition cost is likely going to come in all over the place on any number of names. Minnesota will need to navigate what they’re willing to give up, how much they need in return, and to what extent this year represents an “all in” moment. From my view the Twins need no less than two bullpen arms. That could be accomplished by acquiring a starter and reliever, effectively pushing Martin Perez into a lefty relief option. Despite a poor body of work as a starter last season Perez posted a 2.45 ERA across 11.0 IP as a reliever. He danced around some danger, but the cutter out of the pen gives him a new weapon and could take his effectiveness up yet another notch. Operating with the premise of two additional arms coming, these would be my choices. All In- LHP Will Smith and RHP Seth Lugo Regardless of the San Francisco Giants current hot streak they should sell. It sounds like they’ll hold onto Madison Bumgarner, but I can’t believe they’d be foolish enough to make Smith unavailable. As an impending free agent, he’s among the most attractive relievers on the market. Smith has worked as a closer for the past two seasons and has posted a 2.50 ERA across 97.1 IP. He’s a high strikeout, low walk type, and the secondary numbers suggest the 30-year-old is for real. The bidding will be tense, but this is a guy that would stabilize Minnesota almost on his own. New York is another team that needs to sell, but with a GM in over his head they are somewhat of a wild card. Brodie Van Wagenen did a terrible job with the Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz trade, so he’ll likely be more than cautious in negotiations this time around. That could make Noah Syndergaard or Edwin Diaz returns loftier than they should be, but Lugo is a guy that looks the part of an exciting piece. Under contract through 2022 and just 29-years-old, he won’t come cheap. A former starter, he’s posted a 2.76 ERA across 150.0 IP the past two seasons. Another high strikeout, low walk guy, he’d be quite the big splash. Moderate Play- RHP Ian Kennedy AND LHP Jake Diekman Purely from a return perspective I’d imagine the general consensus would be to avoid packaging players. In this instance though, I think the Royals deal these two guys together in hopes of eating a bit more money for Kennedy to drive up the return in prospect capital. Both well-traveled veterans, there’s breakout years in play here. Moved to the bullpen full time this season Kennedy is seeing a big-time breakout. He’s posted a 3.40 ERA but has a 2.16 FIP. The 11.1 K/9 is a career best and he’s walking less batters than he ever has. The velocity has already spiked up an additional two mph and that’s before he’s begun to work with the Twins Wes Johnson. As mentioned, there’s an ugly contract in play that pays him $16.5MM in 2020 but Kansas City would be expected to swallow a considerable portion of that. Diekman is the greater wild card here but the numbers suggest improvement in a better environment. A 3.36 FIP is behind a 4.75 ERA. He’s always been a strikeout guy, but 13.6 K/9 is easily a career high. The 5.0 BB/9 is concerning but you have to like a lefty with upper 90’s stuff. Jake regressed following a trade midseason a year ago, but you’d have to imagine the Twins pitching infrastructure is superior to that of the Diamondbacks. He’s a 32-year-old impending free agent and shouldn’t bump the cost significantly in a package deal. With nonexistent movement at this point, and connectable pitching dots, the Twins have been linked to every human with a live arm. We don’t know what path Falvey is going to travel down yet, but the situation in front of him is too good not to take advantage of. There are two pairings above the represent different varieties of talent commitment, but both would drastically improve Minnesota’s chances. We’re drawing closer to a conclusion on this front, and we’ll be better able to understand a future thought process once we reach that point. Who do you want to see Minnesota target? What is the best-case scenario, and are you willing to pay the price? Today's Trade Deadline Thread
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Jake Diekman, 32-years-old, LHP Kansas City Royals (29-55, fourth in the AL Central) Has a $5.75MM mutual option in 2020 (500K buyout). 2019: 4.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 5.3 BB/9 in 34.0 IP 2018: 4.73 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 5.2 BB/9 in 53.1 IP What's to like? Frankly, to traditional, antiquated, bare-minimum statistics Jake Diekman projects as a crummy reliever. But here at Twins Daily, we uncover the stories behind the stories, that are behind those stories, too. And Jake Diekman's story is very intriguing, indeed. Despite what the label "lefty" might engender, Diekman is anything but an everyday soft tosser. Among left-handed relievers, he averages 95.5 mph with a sinking fastball, and ranks third among American League relievers in average fastball velocity. Additionally, Diekman is valuable in containing the long ball. He presently carries a slugging-against percentage of .320 (that's fantastic). He also sports 13.5 K/9. That alone is ticketed for the postseason. It's also worth mentioning that Diekman has SUFFERED against Twins hitting, of which he hopefully is not the last victim. The Twins have hit .364/.440/.682 over 25 PAs against him, which to put in perspective is about the same as Barry Bond's 2004 MVP season but only slightly less power. Two of the three homers Diekman has given up this year have come from the Twins. If you can't beat em, join em? I guess. Concerns Walks. Not only are walks the cardinal sin in the postseason, they are self-inflicted damage and tend to snowball and makes bigger messes out of small messes. Well, the bummer is Diekman fashions a 13.4% walk rate, good for the bottom fifth percentile in the league. In the 15 appearances he's granted a walk, he's been pegged for runs 80% of the time. That's indicative of a bad bullpen in inherited runners scored (something the Twins bullpen aren't much better at in their own right), and a bad escape artist in Diekman. One external factor that might end up being the most contingent factor of a trade could be the Twins' reluctance to making an intra-division deal. Consider it friendly fire, possibly accelerating a Royals rebuild. This is probably not what the Twins want for simply a semi-rental asset. The last time the Twins made a trade with a Central Division foe, was with the Royals in 2015 for a fringe prospect. In return for that prospect, Jason Adam, the Twins shipped to Kansas City the rental Josh Willingham. That was under the Terry Ryan regime. Under the long-term-success oriented team of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, it might not be perceived to be in the Twins' best interest to offer a blue-chip prospect for a flawed reliever. Well then it's pretty much settled. Jake Diekman is a somewhat appealing arm, and would conceivably complement Taylor Rogers pretty well if the walks came down. If the Twins so desperately want to end the revolving door of relievers, then Jake Diekman could be a stellar choice as a secondary reliever in our bullpen. He could also be a lethal left-handed weapon in high leverage spots. See Also Ian Kennedy, RHP, Royals Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
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It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required, and soon coming. Who may be available? Today we'll dive into the arm of Kansas City's Jake Diekman. Could this lefty help save the bullpen?Jake Diekman, 32-years-old, LHP Kansas City Royals (29-55, fourth in the AL Central) Has a $5.75MM mutual option in 2020 (500K buyout). 2019: 4.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 5.3 BB/9 in 34.0 IP 2018: 4.73 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 5.2 BB/9 in 53.1 IP What's to like? Frankly, to traditional, antiquated, bare-minimum statistics Jake Diekman projects as a crummy reliever. But here at Twins Daily, we uncover the stories behind the stories, that are behind those stories, too. And Jake Diekman's story is very intriguing, indeed. Despite what the label "lefty" might engender, Diekman is anything but an everyday soft tosser. Among left-handed relievers, he averages 95.5 mph with a sinking fastball, and ranks third among American League relievers in average fastball velocity. Additionally, Diekman is valuable in containing the long ball. He presently carries a slugging-against percentage of .320 (that's fantastic). He also sports 13.5 K/9. That alone is ticketed for the postseason. It's also worth mentioning that Diekman has SUFFERED against Twins hitting, of which he hopefully is not the last victim. The Twins have hit .364/.440/.682 over 25 PAs against him, which to put in perspective is about the same as Barry Bond's 2004 MVP season but only slightly less power. Two of the three homers Diekman has given up this year have come from the Twins. If you can't beat em, join em? I guess. Concerns Walks. Not only are walks the cardinal sin in the postseason, they are self-inflicted damage and tend to snowball and makes bigger messes out of small messes. Well, the bummer is Diekman fashions a 13.4% walk rate, good for the bottom fifth percentile in the league. In the 15 appearances he's granted a walk, he's been pegged for runs 80% of the time. That's indicative of a bad bullpen in inherited runners scored (something the Twins bullpen aren't much better at in their own right), and a bad escape artist in Diekman. One external factor that might end up being the most contingent factor of a trade could be the Twins' reluctance to making an intra-division deal. Consider it friendly fire, possibly accelerating a Royals rebuild. This is probably not what the Twins want for simply a semi-rental asset. The last time the Twins made a trade with a Central Division foe, was with the Royals in 2015 for a fringe prospect. In return for that prospect, Jason Adam, the Twins shipped to Kansas City the rental Josh Willingham. That was under the Terry Ryan regime. Under the long-term-success oriented team of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, it might not be perceived to be in the Twins' best interest to offer a blue-chip prospect for a flawed reliever. Well then it's pretty much settled. Jake Diekman is a somewhat appealing arm, and would conceivably complement Taylor Rogers pretty well if the walks came down. If the Twins so desperately want to end the revolving door of relievers, then Jake Diekman could be a stellar choice as a secondary reliever in our bullpen. He could also be a lethal left-handed weapon in high leverage spots. See Also Ian Kennedy, RHP, Royals Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article
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