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With the Minnesota Twins fully focused on the 2019 Major League Baseball season at this point, their goal currently is to construct the best roster to challenge the reigning AL Central Champion Cleveland Indians. Having a literal boatload of cap space there’s plenty of money to be spent this offseason. Needing to address the infield, specifically up the middle, it’s a tale of two types for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Do they love the glove, or not?Jorge Polanco is currently the acting Minnesota shortstop. In 664 innings at shortstop in 2018 he was worth -1 DRS with a -3.9 UZR and a 1.4 RngR. Those numbers are all far better than the abomination he was during just 406 innings at short in 2016, but they are a step backward from the 2017 version of Polanco. Whether one understands defensive metrics or not, Minnesota’s current shortstop has a poor arm and limited range. Playing deep in the hole is hardly an option, and it leaves the infield's most important position significantly exposed. The good news is that Polanco profiles as an average to above-average second basemen. His arm would play just fine there, and range factor is less demanding on the right side of the diamond. It’s a role he had essentially been pushed into during the latter part of his minor league career, and only moved back to short as the Twins already had Brian Dozier manning second. When addressing their needs this offseason, I’d imagine the Twins would prefer not to punt on middle-infield defense entirely. Whether at second base or at shortstop, some sort of glove-first player makes sense. The only other option would be to choose some sort of middle-ground type player, with a bat-first emphasis, keeping Polanco where he is and banking on Royce Lewis being adept defensively for that role beginning in 2020. Obviously when considering which path to choose the market factors come into play as well. There are only something like eight available shortstops while there is nearly double that number at second base. In trying to put some pegs into holes, here’s how I see some of those names categorized. Gloves- Manny Machado (SS) Jose Iglesias (SS) Freddy Galvis (SS) D.J. LeMahieu (2B) Ian Kinsler (2B) Logan Forsythe (2B) Bats- Jordy Mercer (SS) Asdrubal Cabrera (2B) Brian Dozier (2B) Daniel Murphy (2B) Daniel Descalso (2B) Josh Harrison (2B) Of the 12 names above, it’s worth immediately ruling a handful out. Manny Machado is a pipe dream, and while the Twins have the money to sign him, there will be no shortage of suitors and plenty more sexy landing spots. Brian Dozier’s time has probably come and gone with the organization, and Daniel Murphy should be both expensive and a significant fielding liability. Each of the remaining nine names presents some intrigue though, so individually they’re worth a look. Jose Iglesias- The former Detroit Tigers shortstop is probably the cream of this crop in the field. While his DRS numbers don’t jump off the charts, he has a strong arm, solid range, and plays a well above-average shortstop. At just 28 years old he would give Minnesota the ability to sign a multi-year deal and feel pretty good about it. Freddy Galvis- A relatively similar player to Iglesias, Galvis separates himself a bit with his stick. He’s hit at least 12 homers each of the past three years and there’s plenty of gap power here. He’s a strong defender as well and will be just 29 next season. He’s also a strong bet to land a multi-year deal. D.J. LeMahieu- Coming off a second straight Gold Glove, the former Rockies second baseman is as sure as it gets in the field. He led MLB second basemen in DRS last season and locks down the right side of an infield. Obviously, his numbers are going to tumble away from Coors, but the question is to what extent. He’ll probably be looking for a bit more than he ends up being worth, but at 30 years old, more quality play should be ahead. Ian Kinsler- Divisional familiarity is at play here after Kinsler spent four seasons with the Tigers. He’ll turn 37 during the 2019 season, and obviously isn’t the player he once was. Struggling to hit much at all last season, he still earned a Gold Glove with his exceptional defense. There’s still some power at the plate and it comes with some on-base ability. Logan Forsythe- Minnesota is obviously familiar with this name, as he was swapped for Brian Dozier down the stretch. Forsythe can play an above average second base, and the defensive upgrade over Dozier was more than apparent. He hasn’t hit for two years, but he could be a decent buy-low target in his age 32 season. Jordy Mercer- Stuck in the middle ground of average on both sides of the game, Mercer has an OK bat and a mediocre glove. He’s not someone you really want to employ at short but isn’t going to hit to the extent of moving positions. There’re on-base skills here too, and he has shown some pop in previous seasons, but this signing would come with plenty of uncertainty. Asdrubal Cabrera- Nothing short of terrible in the field last year, Cabrera has become all bat at this point of his career. He’ll be 33 for his next team and is coming off a .774 OPS in 2018. He wasn’t good for the Phillies down the stretch but posted an exception .817 OPS with the Mets in 98 games to start the year. You’re asking a lot from Polanco in going this route, but maybe the offense makes up for it? Daniel Descalso- Splitting between second and short last season for the Diamondbacks, Descalso was better on the right side. He’s a good contact hitter who doesn’t strike out a ton. While walks haven’t been his game either, Descalso may be a late-developing prime player. The .762 OPS since 2016 far surpasses the .648 OPS in six big league seasons prior. Josh Harrison- Leaving the Pirates for the first time in his big-league career J-Hay is headed for untested waters. He’s been a jack of all trades most seasons but played solely second base last season. He’s average at worst in the field, and hovering around a .700 OPS is a fair expectation. You do worry about him never having played more than 143 games in a season, and there’s nothing he does exceptionally well. In trying to figure out where the Twins might turn it’s not an either-or proposition. Certainly, they could bring in some middle infield depth, but there’s only one starting spot open. Polanco is going to be placed aside of whomever is inserted into the lineup and that makes it critical to get this right. As a long-term play Jose Iglesias seems the best fit to me. He won’t be cheap, but you can’t expect him to break the bank either. Galvis strikes out a bit too much for a lineup filled with them, and Iglesias brings a slightly better form of defense. He can be inserted at shortstop for the next three years, and there then is no pressure for Royce Lewis needing to stick in that spot. Shoot for three years at $25 million and call it a day. Should Minnesota be looking for just a short-term answer to this equation I think the bat-first mentality comes into play a bit more. On a one-year deal, age goes out the window and you’re staring at a trio of Kinsler, Forsythe, and Cabrera. I don’t think you can realistically employ Polanco and Cabrera up the middle without very negative results, and you probably should aim a bit higher than what Forsythe projects as. Welcome Ian Kinsler back to the division. Even at his worst offensively there’s both power and on-base skills to utilize. He’s just two years removed from an .831 OPS and he should be available at less than $10 million for a single season. We’re still a way out from seeing how the Twins plan to address this situation, but it’s one of the most interesting and critical of the entire offseason. Click here to view the article

A year ago, the Twins were coming off of a 103-loss season, and all of the talk was about whether or not Brian Dozier would be traded for prospects. A deal was not able to be worked out, and Dozier remained with the Twins. Things have changed after a 2017 season that saw the Twins win 85 games and make the playoffs for the first time in seven years. With Derek Falvey and Thad Levine preaching long-term, sustainable, championship caliber team as the goal, what will they attempt to do with Brian Dozier this offseason? To trade, or to sign to a long-term contract? That is the question.Yesterday, Brian Dozier was named the 2017 Twins MVP for the third straight year. He’s coming off of another big season. With the team’s success in 2017, the idea of trading Brian Dozier would not go over well with the fan base. That, however, is not the ultimate concern for the front office, though it certain will be a factor. However, when the Twins were unable to acquire a sufficient package for Dozier after his 42 home run season, with two more years left on his contract, it’s hard to believe they would get a better offer for one season of Dozier. If that is the case, then the discussion has to turn to whether or not they should consider attempt to sign him to another long-term contract or let him become a free agent at the end of the 2018 season. Dozier, who turned 30 in May, has averaged 4.5 bWAR and 4.25 fWAR over his five full big league seasons. Over the last two seasons, he’s been worth approximately 5.5 WAR. In my opinion, an attempt should be made, or at least a conversation should be held regarding an extension for Brian Dozier. So, I thought I’d consider what a long-term extension for Brian Dozier might look like. To do so, I had to look at some of the great second basemen in baseball that have signed in the recent past. Jose Altuve - The Astros wisely locked in Altuve before the 2014 season. He signed a four year, $12.5 million contract with two option seasons. Assuming the Astros don’t tear up that deal, his option seasons of $6 million and $6.5 million for 2018 and 2019 will be picked up. There is nothing in that deal to compare to Dozier. A quick look and we’ll see that the four year, $20 million deal gave him deals that lined up nearly identically with the contracts signed at that same time in the careers of Dustin Pedroia, Jason Kipnis, Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano. Starting in 2015, Dozier’s annual salaries have been or will be $2 million, $3 million, $6 million and $9 million. Dustin Pedroia got $1.5 million in 2009, followed by salaries of $3.5 million, $5.5 million, $8 million and then $10 million.Jason Kipnis’s deal started in 2014 and provided salaries of $2 million, $4 million, $6 million and $9 million.Ian Kinslers deal, starting in 2009, gave him salaries of $3 million, $4 million, $6 million and $7 million.Robinson Cano’s deal started in 2008, and he got $3 million, $6 million, $9 million and $10 million (though it started a year later). He also had $14 million and $15 million options picked up in 2012 and 2013.Rougned Odor signed a deal that started in 2017 in which he got $1 million, $3 million, $7.5 million, $9 million, $12 million, $12 million and an option for $13.5 million in 2023.Of course, in 2023, Odor will be 29 years old. Of this group, Dozier was the eldest as far as when he made the deal. That has to be factored in, but more into the length of the contract, not so much the dollars. Understanding that Dozier’s deal lined up so closely with so many quality second baseman, it is clear that the next step for us is to look at what type of contract each of those players got following their initial deal. How much did their post-free agent-eligible years cost. Here’s the quick rundown. Dustin Pedroia - The Red Sox second baseman jumped to $12.5 million in 2014, and then was paid $12.5 million, $13.0 million and $15.0 million in the three years since. He still has four years remaining on his contract with salaries of $16 million, $15 million, $13 million and $12 million in 2021 (age 37).Jason Kipnis - Cleveland paid Kipnis $9 million in 2017. He will make $13.5 million in 2018, $14.5 million in 2019 and he has an option for $16.5 million in 2020 (age 33 season) with a $2.5 million buyout.Ian Kinsler - The Tigers second baseman signed his deal back in 2013 while with the Rangers. He made $13 million in 2013, $16 million in 2014 and 2015, $14 million in 2016 and $11 million in 2017. He has a $10 million option for 2018, his age 36 season, with a $5 million buyout. (It was also a vesting option and because he got over 600 plate appearances in 2017, it was picked up.)Robinson Cano had his options for 2014 and 2015 picked up for a combined $29 million. Of course, he then became a 30-year-old free agent and signed a 10-year, $240 million deal with the Mariners.So, what does all that mean for Brian Dozier? Well, it gives us some parameters for an extension. Those All Stars or former All Stars signed similar contracts as when Dozier signed his, and they have signed for several years after when that contract ran out. We have to account for baseball salaries continuing to rise since those deals as well as Dozier’s age as he enters the extension. Brian Dozier is set to make $9 million in 2018. Using those other contracts as a baseline, here is what I would think a potentially realistic extension for Dozier could look like: 2015 - $2 million 2016 - $3 million 2017 - $6 million --------------------------------------- 2018 - $9 million (unchanged) --------------------------------------- Signing bonus - $3.5 million (paid in 2018) 2019 - Age 32 - $14.0 million 2020 - Age 33 - $14.5 million 2021 - Age 34 - $15.0 million 2022 - Age 35 - $14.0 million 2023 - Age 36 - $12.0 million (option with a $4 million buyout, which would vest with 600 PA in 2022.) --------------------------------------- If that is the deal, we are looking at a 4 year, $65 million with an option that could make it a five year, $73 million deal. 2024 would be Dozier’s Age 37 season, so it is likely that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would prefer a contract extension be more in the three or four year range, maybe even if that means a higher annual salary. They could get creative and put a couple of options on the end of it. They may want to give Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon another year to develop to see what a lineup without Brian Dozier in it looks like for 2019. Also, understanding that they may need to sign some long-term deals in the not-too-distant future with some of the youngsters, they may be more willing to frontload a contract. Dozier is one year from free agency. If he gets there, and stays healthy, there should be a good market for him. Maybe that would allow him to make a little bit more. At the same time, as a free agent entering his age-32 season, he may not receive more than four year contract offers… or he could get six years. With all of that at your fingertips, what would you do as it relates to Brian Dozier? Still look to trade him? Let 2018 play out. He’ll become a free agent, and take your chances then. Or, should they spend the offseason discussing a long-term extension to keep him as a leader of the Twins for the foreseeable future? ------------------------------------------------------------------------ COMING SOON! A reminder, Nick Nelson is leading the way in the final steps of creating the Twins Daily Annual Offseason Handbook. Keep checking back next week for many more details. As we have in the past, we'll take a look at what options the Twins may have during the upcoming offseason. Trade Targets. Free Agents. Exclusive articles from the Twins Daily owners only available in the electronic book. Definitely something Twins fans will want at their fingertips. Click here to view the article

Brian Dozier posted some incredible numbers in 2016. Despite a very slow start and missing games at the end with injury, he hit .268/.340/.546 (.886) with 35 doubles, five triples, 42 homers, 104 runs scored and 99 RBI. On Thursday, the Silver Slugger Awards were announced. Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros won the Award for AL Second Baseman for the third straight year. They don't give any ranking for the awards, but it's possible that, despite his remarkable numbers, Dozier could have finished as low as third among AL second baseman. Long considered a defense-first position, second base has become a position where offense matters. This isn't necessarily new. Altuve, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano have been putting up strong offensive numbers for most of a decade. This year, however, ten American League second basemen posted an fWAR of at least 2.0.There's no real 'analysis' to the below. I'm just going to post the Top 10 rankings among American League second basemen in 2016. What's remarkable to me is that 22-year-old Rougned Odor of the Texas Rangers knocked 33 home runs in 2016 and isn't among the Top 5 in other categories and he's not in the upper half at the position in most categories. Read below to see where Brian Dozier ranked among American League second basemen. In the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, Nick wrote an article on Dealing Dozier. It's well worth the read. You can download a copy of the Handbook right now at no charge (or you are welcomed to give a donation if you choose). Top 10 (Runs Scored) Ian Kinsler - 117Jose Altuve - 108Robinson Cano - 107Dustin Pedroia - 105Brian Dozier - 104Jason Kipnis - 91Rougned Odor - 89Jonathan Schoop - 82Logan Forsythe - 76Starlin Castro - 63Top 10 (RBI)Robinson Cano - 103Brian Dozier - 99Jose Altuve - 96Rougned Odor - 88Ian Kinsler - 83Jason Kipnis - 82Dustin Pedroia - 74Starlin Castro - 70Logan Forsythe - 52Devon Travis - 50Top 10 (Doubles)Jose Altuve - 42Jason Kipnis - 41Jonathan Schoop - 38Dustin Pedroia - 36Brian Dozier - 35Robinson Cano - 33Rougned Odor - 33Starlin Castro - 29Ian Kinsler - 29Devon Travis - 28Top 10 (Home Runs)Brian Dozier - 42Robinson Cano - 39Rougned Odor - 33Ian Kinsler - 28Jonathan Schoop - 25Jose Altuve - 24Jason Kipnis - 23Starlin Castro - 21Logan Forsythe - 20Dustin Pedroia - 15OPS+ (100 is average)Jose Altuve - 154Robinson Cano -138Brian Dozier - 136Ian Kinsler - 124Dustin Pedroia - 124Logan Forsythe - 113Devon Travis - 108Jason Kipnis - 107Rougned Odor - 105Brett Lawrie - 99Top 10 (bWAR - Wins Above Replacement by Baseball Reference)Jose Altuve - 6.7Robinson Cano - 6.0Brian Dozier - 5.9Ian Kinsler - 5.8Dustin Pedroia - 5.2Jason Kipnis - 4.8Logan Forsythe - 2.8Devon Travis - 2.5Rougned Odor - 2.0Jonathan Schoop - 2.0Top 10 (fWAR - Wins Above Replacement by FanGraphs)Jose Altuve - 6.7Robinson Cano - 6.0Brian Dozier - 5.9Ian Kinsler - 5.8Dustin Pedroia - 5.2Jason Kipnis - 4.8Logan Forsythe - 2.8Devon Travis - 2.5Rougned Odor - 2.0Jonathan Schoop - 2.0Of course, FanGraphs also assigns a value in dollars to their WAR calculation. For 2016, that value was approximately $8 million. So just for fun, that would mean that Altuve's 2016 season was valued at $53.4 million. Cano was valued at $47.6 million. Brian Dozier's 2016 season was valued at $47.2 million. Before the 2015 season, Dozier signed a four year, $20 million contract. In 2016, he more than earned his $3 million salary. Since joining the Twins during the 2012 season, he has been valued at $124.5 million to the Twins. For some context, Joe Mauer's 2009 season was valued at $48.4 million. (7.6 WAR at about $6.4 million per) Mauer's 2009 season was the only season in which he eclipsed Dozier's 5.9 fWAR of 2016. Mauer had seasons with 5.8 fWAR () and 5.7 fWAR () and he accumulated 5.3 fWAR in 2013 when his season ended six weeks early with his concussion. Brian Dozier had an incredible 2016 season, one of the best in organization history. He had an incredible season, historically, for a second baseman. In a year of many great second basemen, Dozier was right near the top. ------------------------------------------------------ Again, the Offseason Handbook can be downloaded now at no charge (or, name your price). Click here to view the article