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Have you missed the earlier parts of this series? Part 1: 2020 Part 2: Payroll Part 3: The Ammunition Part 4: The Sellers Part 5: Who Are We Getting? ********** The previous five articles linked above have led us to this place: willing to take on payroll, less willing to deal the best of our assets, but understanding the cost to do business in terms of adding controllable pieces. My wishlist (in no particular order): A controllable starting pitcher - Beyond Jose Berrios and the team holding an option on Martin Perez's contract for 2020, the other 60% of the rotation is on expiring contracts. While the current rotation has been durable and, at a minimum, capable, adding a quality starter to the stable would be a big step for this pennant race and next year. A relief pitcher - While a reliever with team control would be preferred, getting a rental would suffice. An elite pinch-runner - There will come a time between now and the end of the season that Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano or Jason Castro will be the tying or go-ahead run on second base... and out of the dugout will trot Ehire Adrianza. Adding this piece would be ideal at the end of August, right before rosters expand... but that's not allowed anymore. So we shop in July! Holding on to my top six prospects - What? If I can accomplish the above tasks without moving any of Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran or Trevor Larnach, I'd be ecstatic. It doesn't mean I won't do it. I'd just prefer not to. Without further adieu, my moves: Acquire SP Mike Minor from the Texas Rangers. It's not the most appealing name, but Minor has had the most productive 2019 season of all the pitchers rumored to be available. Why the Rangers? While the Rangers are playing .500 ball, it's not happening for them this year. And if they're honest with themselves, it's not happening next year either. Plus, GM Thad Levine used to work under Rangers GM Jon Daniels and they have a great relationship. How does Minor fit? Well, this does give the Twins six pitchers for five spots. At its simplest, someone is going to have to move to the bullpen. I'd suggest being more creative, limiting Michael Pineda's innings and using Martin Perez in more of a swing role. I'd also find a way to get Devin Smeltzer the occasional start. Plus, Minor is under contract for another year. Controllable starting pitcher, check. The cost? You skipped the previous two parts, didn't you? Minor isn't going to come cheap, unfortunately. I'm probably going to have to give up one of the prospects I don't want to. If Trevor Larnach is involved, the cost probably wouldn't be much more. But there's a chance the Twins get this done without Larnach. A package of A-ball players fits in really well with where Texas is as an organization. The package(s): Quantity: SS Wander Javier, RHP Blayne Enlow and RHP Luis Rijo for LHP Mike Minor. Quality: OF Trevor Larnach and RHP Griffin Jax for LHP Mike Minor and minor-league RP CD Pelham. Quick Take: Is the Stroman deal what the market is going to be? If so, maybe the Twins can get Minor for less. If not, maybe neither of these packages get it done. --- Acquire RP Ian Kennedy from the Kansas City Royals. Just like Minor, Kennedy is not the most appealing name. But he's been dang good as the Royals closer this year. Why the Royals? If you can convince them to deal to a division rival, this is a no-brainer. Kennedy is owed over $20m through the end of next year, and the Twins are in a position to take on salary. The combination of those two things drive down the cost in terms of prospects. How does Kennedy fit? Kennedy has 20 saves in 23 opportunities and has been equally as good against right- and left-handed hitters. I wouldn't "demote" Taylor Rogers, but I'd be more inclined to use Rogers in earlier high-leverage situations knowing Kennedy is more than capable of closing out games. Oh, and he continues to serve in that role through the upcoming back-to-back World Series championships. Reliever, check. The cost? Money, mostly. How much the Royals send over determines the level of prospect. The package: RHP Johan Quezada for RHRP Ian Kennedy and $5 million. Quick Take: The Royals pay just the rest of this year's salary (or maybe less) and in return get a flame throwing prospect who they will add to the 40-man roster this offseason. Bad teams having a closer is a luxury that the Royals are capitalizing on. --- Acquire OF Jarrod Dyson from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yeah, we're doing it... Why the Diamondbacks? They're setting themselves up as sellers, but maybe shouldn't be. At any rate, I want the one of the fastest runners in baseball on my team. How does Dyson fit? He fits great as a fourth outfielder... on a team that doesn't really employ a fourth outfielder. If Buxton were to miss time, this is a pretty easy transition. Otherwise, he's a pinch-runner and fourth outfielder. The cost? Dyson is owed $1.2m over the course of the season. Now, about that 25-man spot he's going to need.... I'm trading 2B Jonathan Schoop. With Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza capable of being the second baseman if something were to happen to Luis Arraez. The package: 2B Jonathan Schoop for OF Jarrod Dyson. (And whatever else, from either side, to make the deal work.) Quick Take: The Diamondbacks have played Ketel Marte at both 2B and CF, so this move forces him to CF full time. Both Dyson and Schoop are on expiring contracts. This changes Arizona's lineup (more pop, less speed) if they want to continue going for it. Or maybe they flip Schoop. --- You're in charge. What are you doing?
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The deadline is upon us and the time to make a deal is closing fast. We all have great ideas to make the Twins franchise World Series champions for the first time since 1991. So you're the GM, what are you going to do? Have you missed the earlier parts of this series? Part 1: 2020 Part 2: Payroll Part 3: The Ammunition Part 4: The Sellers Part 5: Who Are We Getting? ********** The previous five articles linked above have led us to this place: willing to take on payroll, less willing to deal the best of our assets, but understanding the cost to do business in terms of adding controllable pieces. My wishlist (in no particular order): A controllable starting pitcher - Beyond Jose Berrios and the team holding an option on Martin Perez's contract for 2020, the other 60% of the rotation is on expiring contracts. While the current rotation has been durable and, at a minimum, capable, adding a quality starter to the stable would be a big step for this pennant race and next year. A relief pitcher - While a reliever with team control would be preferred, getting a rental would suffice. An elite pinch-runner - There will come a time between now and the end of the season that Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano or Jason Castro will be the tying or go-ahead run on second base... and out of the dugout will trot Ehire Adrianza. Adding this piece would be ideal at the end of August, right before rosters expand... but that's not allowed anymore. So we shop in July! Holding on to my top six prospects - What? If I can accomplish the above tasks without moving any of Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran or Trevor Larnach, I'd be ecstatic. It doesn't mean I won't do it. I'd just prefer not to. Without further adieu, my moves: Acquire SP Mike Minor from the Texas Rangers. It's not the most appealing name, but Minor has had the most productive 2019 season of all the pitchers rumored to be available. Why the Rangers? While the Rangers are playing .500 ball, it's not happening for them this year. And if they're honest with themselves, it's not happening next year either. Plus, GM Thad Levine used to work under Rangers GM Jon Daniels and they have a great relationship. How does Minor fit? Well, this does give the Twins six pitchers for five spots. At its simplest, someone is going to have to move to the bullpen. I'd suggest being more creative, limiting Michael Pineda's innings and using Martin Perez in more of a swing role. I'd also find a way to get Devin Smeltzer the occasional start. Plus, Minor is under contract for another year. Controllable starting pitcher, check. The cost? You skipped the previous two parts, didn't you? Minor isn't going to come cheap, unfortunately. I'm probably going to have to give up one of the prospects I don't want to. If Trevor Larnach is involved, the cost probably wouldn't be much more. But there's a chance the Twins get this done without Larnach. A package of A-ball players fits in really well with where Texas is as an organization. The package(s): Quantity: SS Wander Javier, RHP Blayne Enlow and RHP Luis Rijo for LHP Mike Minor. Quality: OF Trevor Larnach and RHP Griffin Jax for LHP Mike Minor and minor-league RP CD Pelham. Quick Take: Is the Stroman deal what the market is going to be? If so, maybe the Twins can get Minor for less. If not, maybe neither of these packages get it done. --- Acquire RP Ian Kennedy from the Kansas City Royals. Just like Minor, Kennedy is not the most appealing name. But he's been dang good as the Royals closer this year. Why the Royals? If you can convince them to deal to a division rival, this is a no-brainer. Kennedy is owed over $20m through the end of next year, and the Twins are in a position to take on salary. The combination of those two things drive down the cost in terms of prospects. How does Kennedy fit? Kennedy has 20 saves in 23 opportunities and has been equally as good against right- and left-handed hitters. I wouldn't "demote" Taylor Rogers, but I'd be more inclined to use Rogers in earlier high-leverage situations knowing Kennedy is more than capable of closing out games. Oh, and he continues to serve in that role through the upcoming back-to-back World Series championships. Reliever, check. The cost? Money, mostly. How much the Royals send over determines the level of prospect. The package: RHP Johan Quezada for RHRP Ian Kennedy and $5 million. Quick Take: The Royals pay just the rest of this year's salary (or maybe less) and in return get a flame throwing prospect who they will add to the 40-man roster this offseason. Bad teams having a closer is a luxury that the Royals are capitalizing on. --- Acquire OF Jarrod Dyson from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yeah, we're doing it... Why the Diamondbacks? They're setting themselves up as sellers, but maybe shouldn't be. At any rate, I want the one of the fastest runners in baseball on my team. How does Dyson fit? He fits great as a fourth outfielder... on a team that doesn't really employ a fourth outfielder. If Buxton were to miss time, this is a pretty easy transition. Otherwise, he's a pinch-runner and fourth outfielder. The cost? Dyson is owed $1.2m over the course of the season. Now, about that 25-man spot he's going to need.... I'm trading 2B Jonathan Schoop. With Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza capable of being the second baseman if something were to happen to Luis Arraez. The package: 2B Jonathan Schoop for OF Jarrod Dyson. (And whatever else, from either side, to make the deal work.) Quick Take: The Diamondbacks have played Ketel Marte at both 2B and CF, so this move forces him to CF full time. Both Dyson and Schoop are on expiring contracts. This changes Arizona's lineup (more pop, less speed) if they want to continue going for it. Or maybe they flip Schoop. --- You're in charge. 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Trade Deadline Thread: Who Are Your Favorite Bullpen Targets?
Cooper Carlson posted an article in Twins
During the Twins game last night, multiple reporters had an interesting quote from Derek Falvey about the state of salary/payroll during this deadline. https://twitter.com/DerekWetmore/status/1154202862907510785?s=20 So the Twins would be willing to take on some money, you say? Well there is one particular reliever who came to mind for a lot of Twins fans including myself, and that is the Kansas City Royals reliever Ian Kennedy. The 34-year-old right-hander is under team control next season but he is owed roughly $16.5 million for that year. The Royals might still maintain some of the salary but the Twins would still be paying quite a bit. That shouldn’t be too big of a problem though, because Kennedy is actually a really good pitcher. He is in his first season as a relief pitcher after twelve up and down seasons as a starter. In 41 appearances this year, Kennedy owns a 3.48 ERA, 2.23 FIP(!), 10.89 K/9, and 2.18 BB/9. He is a solid right hander who will be able to share high leverage innings with Taylor Rogers and as a righty to pair with Rogers, the Twins could utilize their matchup approach to the bullpen even more. Of course if I’m calling, texting, facetiming or writing letters to Kansas City I am looking for a second player to pair with Kennedy, and that would be Lucas Duda. That is a joke, the real second piece the Twins should target is left handed reliever Jake Diekman. A lot of you will be turned off of him after I say this, but I would call him a left handed Trevor May. Diekman has a very good fastball reaching 96 mph that hitters are hitting just .185 against to go with an outstanding 13.28 K/9, but his BB/9 is a frustrating 5.09 so he will either strike you out or walk you. He is just a good pitcher you can put in for the sixth or seventh inning to safely get you to the big guns to finish the game. So what do you think? Would this package from the Royals be good enough to fix the Twins bullpen? Who are your favorite bullpen pieces expected to be available? Discuss that with me in the comments along with some of these other rumors in the deadline discussion. Deadline Discussion Fangraphs put out an article predicting what each team does at the deadline. They have Twins going to the Giants to acquire Madison Bumgarner and for the costly price of Brusdar Graterol and Trevor Larnach, the Twins #3 and #4 prospects respectively. While both are good pitchers, I don’t see the Twins dealing two of their best prospects for a rental starter and a reliever. What do you think? CBS Sports ranked the 50 best trade candidates for this upcoming deadline. The Twins are listed as fits for Austin Brice (#28), Tony Watson (#23), Sam Dyson (#22), Alex Colome (#21), Chris Martin (#20), Shawn Kelley (#19), Ken Giles (#15), Kirby Yates (#13), Trevor Bauer (#6), Mike Minor (#5) and Madison Bumgarner (#4). Who would you like to see from this list? Here at Twins Daily, Seth posted the first Trade Deadline Thread with some other interesting links from Ken Rosenthal among other posts. Also at Twins Daily, Matt and I gave our perfect trade deadline scenarios on our Leading Off Podcast, so just skip to the 46 minute mark for that. I guarantee there is no better place to find everything you need for the Twins and their upcoming trade deadline than right here at Twins Daily. Now come join me in the comments and let’s discuss the Royals package deal, the Mad Bum/Sam Dyson idea and the many other players linked to the Twins!- 51 comments
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A couple weeks ago we wrapped up a bullpen target series. There’s more than a handful of guys profiled, and the acquisition cost is likely going to come in all over the place on any number of names. Minnesota will need to navigate what they’re willing to give up, how much they need in return, and to what extent this year represents an “all in” moment. From my view the Twins need no less than two bullpen arms. That could be accomplished by acquiring a starter and reliever, effectively pushing Martin Perez into a lefty relief option. Despite a poor body of work as a starter last season Perez posted a 2.45 ERA across 11.0 IP as a reliever. He danced around some danger, but the cutter out of the pen gives him a new weapon and could take his effectiveness up yet another notch. Operating with the premise of two additional arms coming, these would be my choices. All In- LHP Will Smith and RHP Seth Lugo Regardless of the San Francisco Giants current hot streak they should sell. It sounds like they’ll hold onto Madison Bumgarner, but I can’t believe they’d be foolish enough to make Smith unavailable. As an impending free agent, he’s among the most attractive relievers on the market. Smith has worked as a closer for the past two seasons and has posted a 2.50 ERA across 97.1 IP. He’s a high strikeout, low walk type, and the secondary numbers suggest the 30-year-old is for real. The bidding will be tense, but this is a guy that would stabilize Minnesota almost on his own. New York is another team that needs to sell, but with a GM in over his head they are somewhat of a wild card. Brodie Van Wagenen did a terrible job with the Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz trade, so he’ll likely be more than cautious in negotiations this time around. That could make Noah Syndergaard or Edwin Diaz returns loftier than they should be, but Lugo is a guy that looks the part of an exciting piece. Under contract through 2022 and just 29-years-old, he won’t come cheap. A former starter, he’s posted a 2.76 ERA across 150.0 IP the past two seasons. Another high strikeout, low walk guy, he’d be quite the big splash. Moderate Play- RHP Ian Kennedy AND LHP Jake Diekman Purely from a return perspective I’d imagine the general consensus would be to avoid packaging players. In this instance though, I think the Royals deal these two guys together in hopes of eating a bit more money for Kennedy to drive up the return in prospect capital. Both well-traveled veterans, there’s breakout years in play here. Moved to the bullpen full time this season Kennedy is seeing a big-time breakout. He’s posted a 3.40 ERA but has a 2.16 FIP. The 11.1 K/9 is a career best and he’s walking less batters than he ever has. The velocity has already spiked up an additional two mph and that’s before he’s begun to work with the Twins Wes Johnson. As mentioned, there’s an ugly contract in play that pays him $16.5MM in 2020 but Kansas City would be expected to swallow a considerable portion of that. Diekman is the greater wild card here but the numbers suggest improvement in a better environment. A 3.36 FIP is behind a 4.75 ERA. He’s always been a strikeout guy, but 13.6 K/9 is easily a career high. The 5.0 BB/9 is concerning but you have to like a lefty with upper 90’s stuff. Jake regressed following a trade midseason a year ago, but you’d have to imagine the Twins pitching infrastructure is superior to that of the Diamondbacks. He’s a 32-year-old impending free agent and shouldn’t bump the cost significantly in a package deal. With nonexistent movement at this point, and connectable pitching dots, the Twins have been linked to every human with a live arm. We don’t know what path Falvey is going to travel down yet, but the situation in front of him is too good not to take advantage of. There are two pairings above the represent different varieties of talent commitment, but both would drastically improve Minnesota’s chances. We’re drawing closer to a conclusion on this front, and we’ll be better able to understand a future thought process once we reach that point. Who do you want to see Minnesota target? What is the best-case scenario, and are you willing to pay the price? Today's Trade Deadline Thread
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If you're not interested in hearing about all the targets, but you were intrigued - one way or another - by all the talk last night about Ian Kennedy, fast forward to 43:09 where we start talking about how it just makes too much sense to make a deal with the Royals. As always, all of our podcasts are available here or you can download directly from iTunes here.
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Ian Kennedy has been an established MLB starting pitcher for more than a decade now. Kennedy was the New York Yankees first-round draft pick back in 2006 out of the University of Southern California. It didn’t take Kennedy long to get to the majors, as he made his MLB debut just a year later in 2007. After not having much success in his first few seasons with the Yankees, they traded Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of the three-team deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and Max Scherzer to the Detroit Tigers. After a couple of good seasons as a starter for the Diamondbacks Kennedy started to struggle in 2012 and was eventually traded to the San Diego Padres at the 2013 July trade deadline. After a couple of decent seasons with the Padres, Kennedy signed a five-year $70 million-dollar deal with the defending champion Kansas City Royals in January of 2016. After the 2018 season, it was clear that the 34-year-old pitcher was losing a step, which played a part in the Royals transitioning Ian Kennedy to the bullpen this offseason. This move has paid off big for both Kennedy and the Royals. In 32 innings, across 31 relief appearances, Kennedy has a 3.38 ERA (2.06 FIP), with a 11.25 K/9 and just a 1.41 BB/9. Among the 173 qualified relievers this season, Kennedy’s 8.0 strikeout to walk ratio ranks 4th. This will be very attractive to the Twins front office which has shown an affinity for pitchers with excellent strikeout and walk numbers. We often hear how a move to the bullpen helps a starting pitcher gain some velocity on his fastball, and all of a sudden, he are a new and improved pitcher. In a game with so much complexity it’s hard to believe something as simple as this can make such a big difference, but with Ian Kennedy it has. In 2018, Kennedy averaged 91.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball. This year, that number is up two full ticks to 93.9 MPH. This has helped Kennedy hold opposing hitters to a .189 batting average and a .214 wOBA against his fastball, both marks are easily the best of his career. What amplifies this effect is that Kennedy is throwing his fastball on a career high 65 percent of hit pitches. With such a drastic improvement on a pitch that he throws over 60% of the time, it is no wonder why Kennedy has been so much better this year. One thing the Twins will have to consider when trading for Ian Kennedy is the money left on his contract. Kennedy is currently on year four of that five-year deal I mentioned previously, which would give the Twins control through 2020 if they were to trade for him. While this would be a nice addition, the $16.5 million that Kennedy is due in both 2019 and 2020 will give the Twins some pause. The money for 2019 might not be so intimidating as he will only be owed roughly $5.5 million if the Twins were to trade for him at the July 31st trade deadline. The part that might keep them from wanting to deal for Kennedy is the $16.5 million owed to him in 2020. That is a substantial amount of money, for a reliever, and that could drastically alter their plans for this upcoming offseason. At the same rate, Kennedy’s contract will probably make him available for cheap in terms of prospect capital, so if their focus is on maintaining as many of their prospects as possible, while still adding to the team, Kennedy could be a great target. See Also Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
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As we move into July, we are getting closer and closer to the time where the Minnesota Twins need to make a move in order to solidify their bullpen for a postseason run. As we have seen in recent years, it’s of upmost importance for teams to have as many relievers that they can trust to get big outs in the postseason as possible. Fortunately for the Twins, relievers who can help a team in the postseason seem to be in abundance. Here at Twins Daily, we have already posted an article on more than a dozen potential relievers the Twins could target, and today we continue that list with Kansas City Royals closer Ian Kennedy.Ian Kennedy has been an established MLB starting pitcher for more than a decade now. Kennedy was the New York Yankees first-round draft pick back in 2006 out of the University of Southern California. It didn’t take Kennedy long to get to the majors, as he made his MLB debut just a year later in 2007. After not having much success in his first few seasons with the Yankees, they traded Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of the three-team deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and Max Scherzer to the Detroit Tigers. After a couple of good seasons as a starter for the Diamondbacks Kennedy started to struggle in 2012 and was eventually traded to the San Diego Padres at the 2013 July trade deadline. After a couple of decent seasons with the Padres, Kennedy signed a five-year $70 million-dollar deal with the defending champion Kansas City Royals in January of 2016. After the 2018 season, it was clear that the 34-year-old pitcher was losing a step, which played a part in the Royals transitioning Ian Kennedy to the bullpen this offseason. This move has paid off big for both Kennedy and the Royals. In 32 innings, across 31 relief appearances, Kennedy has a 3.38 ERA (2.06 FIP), with a 11.25 K/9 and just a 1.41 BB/9. Among the 173 qualified relievers this season, Kennedy’s 8.0 strikeout to walk ratio ranks 4th. This will be very attractive to the Twins front office which has shown an affinity for pitchers with excellent strikeout and walk numbers. We often hear how a move to the bullpen helps a starting pitcher gain some velocity on his fastball, and all of a sudden, he are a new and improved pitcher. In a game with so much complexity it’s hard to believe something as simple as this can make such a big difference, but with Ian Kennedy it has. In 2018, Kennedy averaged 91.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball. This year, that number is up two full ticks to 93.9 MPH. This has helped Kennedy hold opposing hitters to a .189 batting average and a .214 wOBA against his fastball, both marks are easily the best of his career. What amplifies this effect is that Kennedy is throwing his fastball on a career high 65 percent of hit pitches. With such a drastic improvement on a pitch that he throws over 60% of the time, it is no wonder why Kennedy has been so much better this year. One thing the Twins will have to consider when trading for Ian Kennedy is the money left on his contract. Kennedy is currently on year four of that five-year deal I mentioned previously, which would give the Twins control through 2020 if they were to trade for him. While this would be a nice addition, the $16.5 million that Kennedy is due in both 2019 and 2020 will give the Twins some pause. The money for 2019 might not be so intimidating as he will only be owed roughly $5.5 million if the Twins were to trade for him at the July 31st trade deadline. The part that might keep them from wanting to deal for Kennedy is the $16.5 million owed to him in 2020. That is a substantial amount of money, for a reliever, and that could drastically alter their plans for this upcoming offseason. At the same rate, Kennedy’s contract will probably make him available for cheap in terms of prospect capital, so if their focus is on maintaining as many of their prospects as possible, while still adding to the team, Kennedy could be a great target. See Also Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article
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