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The Twins made a much-needed trade for an all-star reliever at last year’s deadline, but what they got fell short of expectations. Can Jorge López rediscover what made him so successful in the first half of last year? Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports In late-July of last year, the Twins were still grasping to a small division lead, with more holes seemingly appearing by the day. One of the biggest gaps in their roster at the time fell between superstar relief ace Jhoan Duran – and pretty much anyone else in their relief corps. Sure, Griffin Jax had built some trust equity from the skipper, as did Caleb Thielbar. They weren’t all-star caliber players, but they could be trusted to pass the baton in a relay that led to Duran. The team then went out and made a trade for the star-level arm that was desperately needed to help bridge the gap. Enter Jorge López. The former Baltimore Oriole was having a career-year when the Twins acquired him in exchange for pitching prospects Cade Povich and Yennier Cano. He had a fantastic 1.68 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 60% ground ball rate, leading to his first all star nod. His fastballs ran hot, with an average of 97.4 MPH for his four-seamer and 98 MPH on his preferred sinker, and he paired them with a slew of secondary offerings that have carried over from his time as a starting pitcher. His curveball, in particular, was a real weapon, with his slider and changeup serving as additional tricks up his sleeve. So Lopez had big strikeout numbers, got plenty of ground ball outs, and had two and a half years of club control at the time of the trade. What’s not to like? While he wasn’t a train wreck with his new team, Lopez’s first two months as a Twin were disappointing based on the expectations that were set when the team acquired him. In that time, he had a 4.37 ERA across 23 innings pitched, due in large part to a walk rate (13.7%) that nearly eclipsed his strikeout percentage (17.6%). Lopez’s sinker was his bread and butter in the first few months of the season, but its success trailed off considerably once the calendar flipped to July. In the first three months of the 2022 campaign, he allowed just 11 hits on that offering, but in the second half that figure nearly doubled to 20 (six of which went for extra bases). This pitch wasn’t just his most used offering, but it was a notable choice when deciding what to use as a “put away” pitch – or what he used in an effort to get a strikeout once he got to two strikes in the count. That rate for his sinker went from about 16.5% in April and May, all the way up to 29.6% in June and July, but then it plummeted to just 4.5% by the time September rolled around. That’s a big kick to his confidence in his best pitch. That "put away" pitch selection is vital to Lopez’s end results because he’s one of the best at getting to that point when facing opposing hitters, especially those that are right-handed. Last year, he was able to get at least two strikes in the first three pitches against 73% of the right-handed hitters that he faced, according to Inside Edge. Obviously that can be a huge advantage in the grand scheme of things, and indeed it was for the first half of last season when he had a 28.7% strikeout rate. But for whatever reason -- whether it was trying a different pitch mix, or his sinker lost some zip, or he wasn’t locating his pitches as well, or hitters were merely catching up to him -- he was unable to tap into that put away stuff in the second half. That could come across as a grim outlook going forward. Baseball fans suffer from perpetual recency bias, and Lopez’s most recent month of work was uninspiring. However, the Twins don’t need him to be the monster that he was for Baltimore in the first few months of last season. They just need him to be in the same mix as Jax and Thielbar, which is probably somewhere between the two poles that Lopez set last season. The Twins need him to be in that group of guys that can be trusted in a relay that leads to Duran taking on the highest-leverage situations at or near the end of the game. But what do you think? Can Jorge Lopez regain some of his value that the team had in mind when they traded for him? Or did the club get duped into buying-high on an inconsistent arm? Let us know your thoughts and expectations in the comments below. View full article

The 2022 Minnesota Twins had plenty of uncertainty entering the year with regard to their bullpen. On the doorstep of Opening Day, Taylor Rogers was traded and the closer role immediately was a question mark. Fast-forward to 2023 and there are less questions, but a pair of arms could provide big answers. Image courtesy of Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports It was never certain that the Twins were going to have Taylor Rogers in their long-term plans. He was entering the final year of team control, and also coming off an injury that sapped effectiveness in 2021. Emilio Pagan certainly didn’t work out in his place, but the hope is for better returns in year two. Ultimately, it was the emergence of Jhoan Duran that all but saved Rocco Baldelli’s group last season, and the unlikeliness of that being a reality seems drastic. Duran wasn’t supposed to make the Opening Day roster, and he was largely a starting prospect until that point. He now is among the league’s best fireballers, and combined with Jorge Lopez at the back, the Twins could have a nice one-two punch. Similar to how Duran emerged quickly to act as a cornerstone, and someone like Griffin Jax was developed into a key cog, a new duo could represent that narrative this season. Enter Jorge Alcala and Ronny Henriquez. After posting a 3.55 ERA during 2020 and 2021, expectations for Alcala were understandably high coming into last year. While he doesn’t possess the same triple-digit regularity as Duran, his average fastball velocity sits above 97 mph. We didn’t get to see him contribute in 2022 as injury ended his year before it truly started, but a healthy version could put him right back in the thick of high-leverage chances. Alcala did record a save in 2021, but more importantly he was someone Baldelli could lean on in key situations. As a strikeout arm that has done a good job of limiting walks, Alcala has already proven that no matchup is too great for him at this level. He’s now had a full offseason of recovery, and although he’ll need to work his way back into the pecking order, knowing the talent is there should provide solace. On the flip side, Henriquez is an arm that seems poised for more. Acquired from the Texas Rangers in the Mitch Garver trade, Henriquez was pitching well past his level at Triple-A. He was five years younger than the average age, and sometimes that manifested itself in his starting results. Eventually the Twins gave Henriquez more work out of the pen, and a front office source noted early on in the season that he could be a big league factor in relief by the end of the season. That seemed lofty given his age and results, but that was the exact path that played out. Working out of the pen, Henriquez allowed an OPS nearly .150 points lower to the opposition. His ERA, while still inflated, was always more than 1.30 runs less per nine innings. It would be foolish to expect Henriquez to contribute at the same level as Alcala immediately, but if the former is a first-half story then the latter could play in the second half. Henriquez still needs to reign in the longball a bit, but there is plenty to like about the repertoire and body of work as a whole. The Twins may have landed Isiah Kiner-Falefa for the big league roster when swinging Garver, but it was always Henriquez that seemed to be the prize. There is validity in suggesting Minnesota could’ve targeted Michael Fulmer or Matt Moore. Maybe they’ll still find room for a different veteran to compete in the bullpen. Still, blocking someone that should re-emerge, or another arm that could be poised for a breakout, seems like it would be a misstep. After watching Duran and Jax flourish a season ago, the next pair has to be their focus. View full article

Maybe it doesn't need any more help? Image courtesy of © Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey stated last week that, despite widespread speculation, the Twins weren't in the market for adding another relief pitcher in free agency. There are still a few quality names on the market, such as Andrew Chafin and the familiar Michael Fulmer, but for the time being, the Twins seem content rolling with the crew they have now out of the bullpen. Starting at the back end, what is the outlook for potential relievers for the Twins? Closer Jhoan Duran Like last year, I expect Rocco Baldelli to use Duran in a non-traditional closer role. This turned off many fans, but the logic is sound. Stick Duran on the opposing team's best hitters late in the game. The situation could be in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. Duran was as nasty as they came in 2022, mixing top-end velocity (103 mph) with filthy off-speed stuff. After only one season, Duran has proven himself to be one of the best in baseball. On the year, Duran had a 1.86 ERA, 89 punch-outs in 67.2 innings, and produced 2.8 WAR. Duran should continue to hold down the back of the bullpen and be among the most reliable guys to toe the rubber in high-leverage situations. Set-Up Guys Jorge Lopez Lopez came over from Baltimore at the deadline in 2022 and had a disappointing second half of the year in Minnesota. 2022 was Lopez's first year in the bullpen, as he was a failed starter asked to embrace a new role. In this new role, Baltimore had themselves a dominant closer who gave them 19 saves in the first half of the season, striking out 54 hitters in 48.1 innings to the tune of a 1.68 ERA. At the time of the trade, Lopez was considered one of the best closers in baseball. It was a small sample size, but what he did was legit. Lopez is another high-velocity guy who will hit triple digits and overwhelm hitters with his filthy stuff. His problem in Minnesota was; he just walked too many batters. In just 22.2 innings with the Twins, Lopez walked 14 batters. The good news here is that the walks weren't a problem in the first half of the season, so if the Twins can make the proper adjustments to limit the walks, Lopez should be fine. With his talent, he has all the makings of being one of the best set-up men in baseball and form a nightmare 1-2 punch with Duran. Caleb Thielbar Old-reliable himself. Overcoming some early season jitters, Thielbar went on to provide another excellent season for the Twins. The 35-year-old lefty produced a 2.42 FIP on the year, showing his ability to limit walks and home runs. Thielbar will continue to be a staple in the Twins pen, often being asked to take the ball in a spot late in games where the opposing team has a couple of left-handed hitters due up. The years may come and go, but Thielbar's ability to be productive in his role will stay the same. Thielbar will continue to be a solid and reliable arm for Rocco to call on late in games. Griffin Jax Joining Duran and Lopez as starters finding a new role in the bullpen, Jax had an excellent 2022 campaign. Jax was one of the heavier-used pitchers out of the Twins bullpen, throwing 72.1 innings and sometimes asked to eat up multiple innings. Armed with a filthy slider that produced a 36.8% whiff rate, Jax finished the season with a 3.17 FIP and struck out more than a batter per inning. The success of Jax in his new role was one of the highlights of the 2022 season, and he will look to continue his growth there in 2023. Middle Relievers Jovani Moran Jovani Moran was an excellent left-handed bullpen arm in 2022. Moran was so good, and it's possible by the end of 2023, he could be asked to take on more high-leverage situations. In 2022, Moran had a 1.78 FIP and struck out 54 in 40.2 innings. At the moment, Moran is a solid left-handed middle-relief option with a ton of upside. Trevor Megill On the surface, Megill's numbers could have been more inspiring in 2022. However, there was a sizeable discrepancy between Megill's ERA (4.80) and his FIP (3.29), meaning he was a little unlucky in 2022 and is a good candidate for some positive regression in 2023. The massive Megill won't be the Twins' most reliable reliever, but he has a chance to be a solid option to eat innings in the middle of games. Emilio Pagan Sit down, take deep breaths, and relax. What I suggest next may trigger you. The Twins were absolutely right to give Pagan another shot. At the start of 2022, Pagan was the Twins' closer, which is crazy when you think about it. In those high-leverage situations, Pagan imploded. As the year progressed, Pagan slid further down the pecking order. Eventually, he found his footing and put on an excellent second half of the season. Most of his late-season work went unnoticed, as his reputation was already tarnished. In a middle relief role, Pagan has the potential to be a valuable asset to the Minnesota Twins. Pagan was, at one time, one of the best closers in the game. At 32 years old, if he can continue to fine-tune his splitter and limit the long ball, there's no reason he can't be worth the second chance. Jorge Alcala Alcala is a true wildcard. Thought to be the favorite to take over the closer job after the Twins dealt Taylor Rogers for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan last spring, Alcala suffered a season-ending elbow injury after appearing in just two games. Alcala is young and very talented. If he can return to pre-injury form, he may see more high-leverage situations. There's also the chance that Alcala losses a step and struggles. When he returns, Twins fans will have to wait to see where Alcala is. This bullpen has loads of talent and plenty of reliable arms. If guys like Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan can sure a couple of things up, which I think they will, and Jorge Alcala returns to be the fireballer he was before his surgery, this bullpen has some real potential to be a top 10 bullpen in the MLB. What are your thoughts? Should the Twins add another arm, or is the bullpen ready to roll? Let me know! View full article

Happy Valentine's Day and day before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training! To celebrate, here are some Twins Valentine's Day cards for you to pass on to your baseball-loving Valentine... or for you or your friends to chuckle at! Let me know your favorite one! All player images are courtesy of ESPN.com View full article

He may be right; I may be crazy. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey rustled some feathers the other day when, in an article written by Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, the exec said, "[i]f we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings]. We'll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority." It’s a shockingly straightforward answer not saturated with Falvey’s typical lawyer-ish flourishes. Falvey and Miller covered the gambit in reliever talk in that article; I recommend people read the entire piece before outraging (that will never happen). Initially, it’s tough to accept Falvey’s evaluation. I watched the same 2022 Twins team he did, and that squad specialized in blowing games in the late innings. They often failed to hold leads in games that really should have won. Cleveland proved to be a special problem, as Minnesota handed out late wins like Costco free samples as Tyler Thornburg and his ilk tried their darndest to not be a part of the problem. It didn't work, and they finished with the seventh-most meltdowns, a quick-and-dirty Fangraphs stat that uses win probability to determine poor reliever performance. But you don’t need to hear it from a number: that bullpen stunk. Perhaps we’re looking at the issue too broadly, though. Yes, the relief corps was terrible in the first half of the season—Fangraphs pegged them as the 2nd worst in MLB—but they didn’t remain static. Michael Fulmer and Jorge López joined the squad. Caleb Thielber emerged as a tremendous, reliable arm. People with eyes determined that Emilio Pagán should probably not pitch late in games. Evolution took its course. Quietly, so silent that no one cared to notice, the Twins bullpen improved drastically in the second half. Sure, they couldn’t fall further than before, but their bullpen now ranked 4th in MLB in FIP, only sitting behind the blue-blood organizations who consistently dominate the pitching charts. Part of that may be the inherent randomness in reliever performance, but tangible changes appeared to afflict the Twins for the better. Take it from Falvey: "I feel like we saw a lot of progress as last season went on, and within a group that still can make even more progress as they gain experience." Bullpens aren’t made of numbers. People pitch those innings, at least for now. Minnesota’s group includes four arms dancing around one year of MLB service time with another, Jorge Alcalá, who is about as green as the others. Is it unreasonable to believe that Jovani Moran succeeds in an expanded role, Griffin Jax finds another gear, or Trevor Megill fully realizes his strikeout potential? Jhoan Duran will continue melting faces in the near future. The teams main worry will be the complimenting pieces always at risk for the bullpen randomness bug; there's nothing that signing Corey Knebel would do to alleviate that. The issue with the Twins bullpen is perhaps one of perception: because they seemingly blew an incalculable number of games in 2022, they appear incompetent, doomed to blow games again. But that may not be fair. As this author noted in July, relievers are an odd group, one whose jobs rely on the starting pitcher's effectiveness; it could be an all-hand-on-deck night, or Rocco Baldelli may only need the services of two arms the do the job. Given Minnesota’s dreadfully short starting pitching, the bullpen felt an extreme strain. Much of those games were technically the fault of the relief corps, but part of the battle is placing those arms in a position to succeed; Minnesota lost that fight consistently in 2022. And they likely won’t have to carry that weight in 2023. With plenty of wood knocking, the 2023 Twins rotation appears a more trustworthy bunch than their previous counterparts. Swapping Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer for Kenta Maeda and Pablo López gives them a deep rotation. No arm sticks out as truly dominant, but their reliability should feed into the bullpen, removing pressure and allowing its hierarchy to remain intact. The days of Jharel Cotton saving games are over. It is risky. Fewer outcomes in baseball are less aesthetically pleasing than a late blown lead; the win should have been in hand, after all. If López doesn’t regain his Orioles form, Alcalá fails to show the improvement he flashed in 2021, or if any of the breakout 2022 arms regress, it could be a tough summer to bear. View full article

Be it injury or ineffectiveness, sometimes it just doesn’t pan out for starting pitching prospects. The Twins were carried at times in 2023 by starters who switched to the bullpen. It’s hard to ask for another Jhoan Duran, but who could be the next Griffin Jax? Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Griffin Jax got a look as a starting pitcher down the inconsequential stretch of 2021. It didn’t go great as evidenced by his 6.37 ERA in 82 innings, but when his bright spots popped up, they were typically driven by a slider-heavy approach. While it can be rash to judge a starting pitching prospect when they struggle in their rookie season, the Twins opted to allow Jax to play to his strengths. In shorter stints, he could feature his wicked slider and complement it with a middling fastball that played up with a three mph increase in velocity. He went on to be a staple of the Twins bullpen, posting a 3.36 ERA in 72 1/3 innings. Could we see another Griffin Jax-type reliever in 2023? Cole Sands Sands became an afterthought to many in 2022 after being used to fill innings in several spots where the Twins were struggling to field a team. Never a prospect with a particularly high pedigree, it’s easy to see his ERA over 5.00 at both the Triple-A and MLB levels in 2022 and consider him as nothing more than a fringy fill-in type. The Twins however haven’t exhausted all of their options with Sands yet. Sands’ carrying tool as a prospect has always been his huge breaking ball which received an excellent 70 grade by Fangraphs. He doesn’t excel in any other department, but there’s a world where the offspeed is good enough to make him a legitimate weapon if he can go out and throw it as much as he wants for an inning. The pitch was in the 88th percentile in spin rate in 2022 and stymied opposing hitters even as he was often used for multiple innings. With several other starting pitching prospects graduating into the depth chart, it may be time for Sands to make the switch. Ronny Henriquez Henriquez is listed at what has been described as a generous 5’10. Regardless of his size, he’s shown the ability to run his fastball into the mid-to-high-90s with impressive spin. In addition, he features a well-regarded slider and changeup as well. Despite these tools, Henriquez just didn’t show what he needed to in Triple-A, posting a 5.66 ERA in 2022 due to issues with the long ball. He made his MLB debut working as a multi-inning bullpen arm for 11 innings. Henriquez could follow a similar path to Jax if converted to a traditional one to two inning reliever. He already featured his slider in his debut, throwing it about 46% of the time and drawing a 32% whiff rate. Like Jax, his fastball got absolutely pummeled. In a condensed role, it’s possible the fastball which debuted at 93.3 mph could gain a few ticks to help him get away with a few more mistakes. Unlike Jax, Henriquez appears to already have a solid left-hander equalizer in the changeup. If the Twins commit to the move for Henriquez at 23 years old, he has the tools to excel in short stints. Bailey Ober It may seem like a longshot for Ober to wind up in the bullpen, but he may be closer than many fans would like to believe. When it comes to the body of work for the 6’9 right-hander, it’s hard to complain about his performance. Ober has a sub 4.00 ERA across his first two MLB seasons and a legitimate four-pitch mix, making him a painful consideration to ever be moved to the bullpen. It’s more about quantity than quality in Ober’s case, however. He’s had an injury-riddled career and has surpassed 100 innings just once in his five professional seasons. His lack of reliability likely played a big part in the Twins acquiring Pablo López, which appears to have pushed Ober out of the Opening Day rotation. Many would be surprised to know that he’s already 27 years old, and at this point, another multi-week IL stint will likely push prospects like Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson ahead of him on the rotational depth chart. With his age, Ober not only becomes more of an injury risk every year, but his projectability becomes an issue. The idea of building up to even 140-150 innings is almost unfathomable following a 2022 season where he threw just over 70. At some point, the Twins may just decide that if Ober’s cap is 100 innings, he may be better off throwing 50-60 innings out of the bullpen and giving those bulk innings to younger starters who are still capable of reaching a starter’s workload. Ober’s already-sufficient pitch would most certainly play up in the bullpen, and it may even help keep him on the field. Do you think the Twins have any more starting pitching prospects who could be headed for a successful bullpen job? Let us know below! View full article

2022 wasn’t just bad for former top pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic, it was disastrous. Now that he’s on the 40 man roster with minimal minor league success above Double-A on his resume, is it time for a change in plans? Image courtesy of Theo Tollefson, Twins Daily Jordan Balazovic was seen as the crown jewel pitching prospect in the Twins system for a few years prior to 2022. Even as a fifth round pick out of Canada in 2016, Balazovic became a big name quickly, as his 6’5 frame filled out quickly and velocity soon followed. He dominated his way up to Double-A in 2019 before the 2020 shutdown interrupted what looked to be an ascension to one of the Twins best starting pitching prospects in some time. 2021 was a mixed bag as Balazovic threw 97 innings in Double-A with a mid-3s ERA. The strikeouts came down and walks came up a bit, but he still flashed the upside the Twins knew was there. While not the dominant pitcher he had shown he could be, 2021 never could have foreshadowed what we saw in 2022. Balazovic began the season a bit behind due to a knee issue. Still, the Twins had decided they’d seen enough in Double-A to bump him up to Triple-A, setting the stage for a potential call up later in 2022. Unfortunately, these plans did not come to fruition, as Balazovic wound up throwing around 70 innings and posting a panic-inducing 7.39 ERA. He was often chased from outings in the second or third inning, allowing a 2.55 HR/9 that would make Emilio Pagan blush. There were rumblings of the knee issue continuing to limit the right hander, but the 2022 season was enough for Balazovic to lose all national prospect status. Once bordering on Top 100 prospect lists as an up-and-coming mid-to-high end starting pitcher, Balazovic’s future is suddenly a massive question mark. The question of course, is how the Twins view him. At 24 years old, the Twins don’t have to rush to make a decision with Balazovic. Plenty of pitchers such as Josh Winder and Bailey Ober debuted at older ages. The issue, however, becomes the fact that Balazovic had to be added to the 40-man roster. If The Twins want to regain trust in him as a starter in 2023, it will likely take a sizable body of work for them to feel comfortable calling him up given what they saw last year. It also runs the risk of him either continuing to struggle or just putting up middle of the road numbers that don’t push the issue at all. Given how often the Twins churn over the fringes of the 40-man roster, it’s hard to stash Balazovic away in Triple-A as a starter if they’ve lost any faith in him. It’s possible they take another route instead. Balazovic’s stuff remains intact by all accounts. His massive frame allows him to throw mid-90s out of the rotation, and he has multiple secondary pitches that grade out well. It’s entirely possible that a move to shorter stints out of the bullpen allow him to approach triple digits, and he could greatly reduce the usage on his lowest-graded pitch being the changeup. He should have the raw stuff to put any command struggles behind him and simply overpower opposing hitters. This would also put him on an expedited track to the Major Leagues. Nobody ever wants to see a top prospect make the switch to the bullpen, but it’s a quite common outcome. Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Jhoan Duran, all former starters that made a shift for struggles of some kind and found massive success in the MLB. We’ve seen Griffin Jax, a low 90s fringe starting pitching prospect transition into a high leverage reliever who sits above 95 mph. Sometimes a move to the bullpen is exactly what a pitcher needs to reach their potential. It’s likely at this point that Balazovic opens 2023 as a starting pitcher in Triple-A once more, which is completely fair. Much like the 2022 Twins, it may be wise not to make any rash decisions when injury accounted for so much of the struggles. Still, it’s likely that Balazovic’s status as a future starting pitcher is on thin ice. Prospects get hurt and struggle every year, but Balazovic’s 2022 was so bad that it’s fair to wonder whether it’s possible for him to come all the way back. The Twins should have a backup plan on standby for Balazovic in 2023 should his struggles continue early in the year. He has the talent to make a real impact on the Major League team and if his odds of that impact coming in the rotation continue to wane, the Twins need to be ready to pivot. Jordan Balazovic could easily become the next Jhoan Duran starter turned reliever to make an impact on the Twins roster. It’s not what fans have hoped for all of these years, but it’s far from a bad outcome. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are looking at 2023 needing to put up a winning season for the first time since 2021. A significant portion of that being a possibility rests on the shoulders of the guys currently within the organization. Given the graduations from Minnesota’s farm system, Derek Falvey needs to see youth carry the next wave of competitiveness. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli’s team held onto a division lead for a substantial portion of the 2022 season. That continued to be the reality despite mounting injuries and a roster that needed more done during the offseason. Ultimately it led to a September of non-competitive baseball, and a stretch run that carried zero playoff implications. In that, the silver lining was certainly the development of players that should be looked at as cornerstones in the year ahead. Here is a look at a group that could be considered the top five. Nick Gordon After being thrust into more than 70 games during the 2021 season, it was clear that Nick Gordon had some utility for the Twins. He didn’t do enough to show what exactly that utility was. He played everywhere, but was below average as a hitter, and while he was good on the base paths it was difficult for him to get there. Fast forward a year and Gordon looks the part of a late-blooming asset. He was particularly valuable in the outfield as a replacement, and his 113 OPS+ was a substantial step forward. He made plenty of blunders, both defensively and on the base paths, that should question how tuned in he is while between the lines, but there’s certainly a 26-man roster asset here. Jose Miranda No one put up a better year in the minors, especially for the Twins, than Jose Miranda did during 2021. His .973 OPS didn’t earn him a spot on the Opening Day roster with veterans ahead of him, but it didn’t take long before he made his debut. In 125 games, Miranda posted a 116 OPS+ and blasted 15 homers. He certainly struggled a bit down the stretch as the opposition made changes to combat his abilities, but that is something he can grow into as he continues to develop. Miranda won’t be 25 until the summer and he should have more positional stability in the upcoming season. Playing less first base would be good for him, and that probably says a good deal about the production of Alex Kirilloff and Joey Gallo as well. Royce Lewis Maybe this is a surprise position for a guy who saw such limited action during the season as a whole, but it’s impossible to overlook how much of an impact was made. Lewis had gone two full years without playing an actual game thanks to the pandemic and an injury. He then debuted at Triple-A and posted a .940 OPS forcing his way into big-league action. Carlos Correa going down with an injury opened a spot, and then Lewis’ continued production allowed a position change to be another way he got onto the field. An unfortunate ACL injury ended his season a second year in a row, but it hasn’t stopped the belief in him from the organization. Since he was drafted there has been no reason to doubt him, and once again, he proved that. Griffin Jax For a guy that was a failed starter a season ago, the organization and Jax continued to work together as they have throughout his career. From finding a way to get him action while still dealing with military eligibility, to transitioning towards a bullpen role, it’s always been a work in progress for Jax. His 3.36 ERA was bolstered by a 3.17 FIP and a K/9 that jumped substantially to 9.7 K/9. His velocity saw an uptick, and he emerged as a late-inning option for a bullpen that needed more arms to trend that way. Jhoan Duran If Jax was a guy that emerged as a late-inning option, Duran was the guy that emerged as the late-inning option. A former starting pitching prospect that threw just 16 innings since 2019, he forced his way onto the Opening Day roster. Baldelli probably saw Duran as a godsend given how poor the bullpen was from the get go. Emilio Pagan flopped out of the gate, and Tyler Duffey was DFA worthy well before he ultimately was given that pink slip. Duran put up a ridiculous 1.86 ERA with an 11.8 K/9 and re-wrote the Twins record books when it comes to velocity readings. There isn’t a single player in this group that won’t be counted on by the Twins from the get go in 2023. Baldelli has had a few changes to his projected roster from a season ago, and while the front office still has work to do, there’s no denying that 20% of the roster is represented here (once Lewis is healthy), and each of them will be expected to take another step forward. View full article

The last two seasons haven’t gone the way we’d hoped for the Twins. With the offseason continuing to unfold, many questions remain unanswered. The Twins could find themselves leaning heavily on breakout candidates in 2023. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports Even if Carlos Correa returns, the Twins roster will not be a geared up contender for the AL Central. Hopefully multiple acquisitions are made, but the Twins will also be relying on several players to break out. Luckily in the case of the Twins, there are plenty of candidates. Trevor Larnach Larnach now has two seasons of flashing white hot stretches at the plate followed up by extreme lows. His most recent run in 2022 began with a slash line of .299/.375/.515 through the end of May, only to finish with a .429 OPS in June. Larnach suffered a core muscle injury that eventually resulted in his season ending. Did said injury knock him off of his peak, or did pitchers adjust to his approach as they did in 2021? Larnach became a certified asset in the corner outfield because of his arm and should provide a safe floor in terms of value due to that defensive ability. The question is whether he can consistently contribute at the plate. While expecting him to be 50% above league average offensively as he was for a stretch in 2022 is too much, those two months show the talent he has hidden away somewhere. His knowledge of the strike zone and ability to punish mistakes could lead to his emergence as a legitimate middle of the order bat. Even that outcome would give the Twins lineup an entirely different look. Griffin Jax Perhaps the crown jewels of the Twins pitching pipeline at this time are of course Jhoan Duran and the underrated Griffin Jax. In the latter’s case, it is a story of great success. After failing to hold up as a started, Jax switched to the bullpen and quietly posted a 3.36 ERA in 72 1/3 IP in 2022. Striking out around 27% of hitters, Jax was a great setup man in a pinch. For a portion of the season he was likely the Twins second best reliever. So how could he break out and become even better? It appears for starters that Jax is working on adding velocity, never a bad idea! His wipeout slider wasn’t enough to keep hitters off his fastball which allowed a .530 SLG in 2022 so perhaps some added velocity could help. Jax also sneakily had a very effective changeup which he used around 14% of the time. Perhaps in just his second season as a reliever he can add some velocity and use his changeup as an equalizer for lefties a bit more. Given the baseline he showed in 2022, doing so could make him a devastating weapon at the back end of games. Alex Kirilloff Unfortunately at this point Kirilloff’s breakout feels like a pipedream due to his inability to remain on the field. The talented former #15 overall pick has been dealing with wrist issues for years. Following multiple surgeries, the most recent of which can be considered experimental, it’s hard to rely on Kirilloff for any kind of value moving forward. That being said, he displayed his pure hitting skills throughout the minors and flashed them in the MLB during the short stints he’s been healthy. While it’s hard to find sustained success in his brief career, it’s easy to forget that he was considered the best pure hitter in the Twins system not that long ago, regularly dominating the minor leagues. Fans may be tired of waiting, but the Twins drafted Kirilloff out of high school six years ago. If he can take the field in the spring, the Twins will give him every opportunity to succeed, as they should. We’ve rarely seen Kirilloff take the field while healthy, but at just 25 years old it’s not time to give up on him just yet. Long projected to be a cornerstone of the lineup, health is the main question that Kirilloff looks to answer in 2023. If that wrist allows him to swing the bat, don’t be surprised to see the former first rounder as one of the Twins most consistent hitters. Does anyone on this list stand out above the others? Is there a major breakout candidate not listed here? Let us know below! View full article

Imagine a pitcher who can touch 104 mph, throws strikes and combines it with elite offspeed stuff. The Twins have never had such an arm… until now. Twins Daily’s 2022 pick for Pitcher of the Year is rookie sensation Jhoan Duran. While the majority of the Twins’ bullpen struggled to close games, Duran was invaluable all season long. He led American League relievers in Win Probability Added (4.59), frequently facing the opponent’s best hitters in the highest leverage spots. Duran’s “clutch” score registered at 1.26, also the highest in the AL. If you looked only at Duran on the surface, you’d crown him as one of the best relievers in baseball. His incredible season was impressive without context. The context, however, is where the magic lies. Duran was a rookie thrust into the tightest spots for a team fighting for the playoffs. He had never pitched in relief before 2022, save for a couple games at Triple-A in 2019 and 2021. After working at the Twins' alternate site in 2020, Duran threw only 16 innings a season ago in St. Paul. He had a 5.06 ERA before an elbow injury shut down his season, putting his future in question. Duran dazzled in spring training and earned a spot on the Opening Day roster. Even the most optimistic believers in Duran’s incredible stuff couldn’t have predicted what came next. Among pitchers who threw at least 250 offerings in 2022, Duran’s four-seamer ranked first in average velocity (100.8). His splitter also paced the league at a ridiculous 96.4 mph. Duran unquestionably has the best raw stuff in Twins history and one of the most electrifying repertoires the game has ever seen. There have been plenty of young pitchers with electric arms but Duran’s command is the separator. His 27.4% strikeout-to-walk rate was tied for 10th among qualified relievers, ahead of Cleveland phenom Emmanuel Clase. Duran throws extremely hard and he throws strikes. That combo led to nearly three Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference. Duran worked through early pitch-selection pains and got better as the season went on. Only two AL relievers had a lower ERA than Duran in the second half (1.05), minimum of 25 innings. The rookie was also lights-out in front of the home crowd, posting a 0.83 ERA at Target Field, the lowest in a season in the park’s history. Handing your most pivotal bullpen spot to a rookie can be a risky proposition, given the pressure of that role. Duran was unfazed. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Duran held opponents to a 1-for-25 mark, with the lone hit a single. In high-leverage situations, opponents hit .180 with a .489 OPS. Duran’s pulse is impossible to see. Twins fans were understandably sad to see the team trade Eduardo Escobar at the 2018 deadline. The reward, however, looks to be potentially game-changing. Duran has instantly become one of the game’s best relievers and he’s under contract with the Twins through at least 2027. He’s a joy to watch. HONORABLE MENTIONS Sonny Gray The Twins traded their first-round pick from a year ago for Sonny Gray, who was very good when healthy in his first season as a Twin. Gray had trouble staying healthy and pitching deep into games, but his 3.08 ERA and 3.41 FIP show he’s still a frontline starter. Griffin Jax Also in his first season as a full-time reliever, Griffin Jax enjoyed a massive spike in velocity and effectiveness. Jax posted a solid 3.36 ERA in 65 games, regularly setting up Duran as the second-best reliever in the bullpen. Jax averaged over 95 mph with his four-seamer and produced a 37% whiff rate on his elite, high-spin slider. Caleb Thielbar Caleb Thielbar is another example of why we should trust the expected statistics. A ballooned ERA was backed by much better metrics early in 2022. Thielbar was outstanding in the second half with a 1.50 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 24 innings. The lefty filled in more than admirably for Taylor Rogers. Joe Ryan Joe Ryan set the Twins’ single-season rookie record for strikeouts, backed by a 3.55 ERA in a team-leading 147 innings. Ryan was exceptional down the stretch with a 2.81 ERA over his last nine starts. Still just a rookie, Ryan has been impressive for many of his now 32 starts in the big leagues. View full article

The Twins technically did improve on their record in 2021, and with that came several players taking steps forward. Nobody made a bigger leap than late-bloomer Nick Gordon. Before we pay our dues to the Twins former top prospect, several others deserve some love as well. Honorable Mentions: Griffin Jax: 72.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 26.9% K rate, 6.9% BB rate, 0.9 fWAR, 0.9 bWAR At the end of 2021, it became clear Jax lacked the pitch mix to thrive as a starter so he made the switch to the bullpen. It’s hard to expect more than what he provided the Twins. Arguably a Top 3 reliever for the team for most of the year, Jax turned to his wipeout slider nearly 50% of the time and the pitch was dominant in every way. Headed into 2023, it’ll be interesting to see if Jax can continue improving in his new role. Luis Arraez: .316/.375/.420, 8.3% BB rate, 7.1% K rate, 3.2 fWAR, 4.4 bWAR It’s hard for one of the team’s best players over the last few years to get “most improved” consideration but Arraez has earned it. Not only did he take his offense to the next level by winning a batting title and slugging a career-high eight home runs, but he also had an underrated season defensively. After struggling to stick at any one position, Arraez found himself playing first base for the first time in his career and more than held his own. Though his hamstring caused him issues at season’s end, he played a career-high 144 games. Hopefully, we can see more of the same moving forward. Gilberto Celestino: .238/.313/.302, 9.2% BB rate, 22.2% K rate, 0 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR To be fair, Celestino didn’t look to be an MLB-caliber player in 2021, and so even his modest 2022 numbers got him some love as one of the Twins most improved players. He showed flashes throughout the year that hint at his ability to at least become a solid fourth outfielder. He put up comfortably positive defensive metrics in center field across the board, and any kind of power development would be huge. Still just 23 years old, Celestino may very well find himself on this list again next year. Twins Daily's Most Improved Player Nick Gordon: .272/.316/.427, 4.3% BB rate, 23.7% K rate, 1.5 fWAR, 1.6 fWAR So much to be impressed by with Gordon’s 2022 season. Early calls to jettison him off the roster in favor of Royce Lewis were quickly rescinded, as Gordon found himself in a trial by fire due to injuries and came out on the other side looking like a legitimate piece of the Twins future. Gordon showed contact ability and power like never before and even did a little bit of damage against left-handed pitching on occasion. Though the Twins tailed off at the beginning of September, they’d have been out of the race well before without their former 2014 1st round pick. Gordon pivoted off of his longtime position in the middle infield and is likely a better defensive outfielder at this point, a testament to the work he put in and his raw physical ability. The Twins outfield has plenty of left-handed hitters, but Gordon is a nice complement to the hulking sluggers such as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. He seems like a favorite to fill a platoon-type role moving forward, finding himself in the lineup regularly when a right-handed pitcher is on the mound. One thing that should really be appreciated about Gordon is the joy he plays with. Perhaps stemming from the long path to get to this point, Gordon isn’t afraid to wear his heart on his sleeve in every situation. From a huge smile on his face following a big hit to his visible frustration when being pulled for a pinch hitter, you just have to love how invested he looks no matter the situation. With team control until 2028 and a versatile skill set, Nick Gordon may just be getting started. In the midst of a disappointing season, the development he’s shown was truly a bright spot. For that reason, join us in congratulating Nick Gordon as Twins Daily’s Most Improved Player! View full article

Break out the brooms. Thanks to early-inning heroics from Carlos Correa and Nick Gordon, the Twins notched a critical win on Thursday night against the Royals. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Dylan Bundy, 4 IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 2K (60 pitches, 41 strikes, 68.3%) Home Runs: Carlos Correa (21), Nick Gordon (7) Top 3 WPA: Carlos Correa (.155), Jhoan Duran (.153), Michael Fulmer (.115) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) In Honor of 21 Some things are bigger than the result on the field. 50 years following his passing, six Twins players donned #21 for Roberto Clemente Day on Thursday night. Puerto Rican natives Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, Jorge López and Jovani Moran all donned #21 for the man who was arguably the father of baseball for the country. Emilio Pagán, who is of Puerto Rican descent (his father is from Puerto Rico) and Byron Buxton, who is the Twins' nominee for the 2022 Roberto Clemente Award also wore #21 on their jerseys. Early Action After the White Sox crunched the Guardians on Thursday afternoon, the Twins wasted no time to hop on top of the Royals on Thursday. Carlos Correa launched a full-count fastball over the left-field wall to put the Twins up 1-0. That homer was Correa's fifth in the last seven games. A clubhouse leader showing up when it matters? Absolutely. Nick Gordon added to the fun in the second inning. After Gilberto Celestino tallied a double (which really could have been a triple (or more) without an unfortunate trip), Nick "Flash G" Gordon launched a slider over the right-center field wall to give the Twins a 3-1 lead. Cy Bundy Twins starter Dylan Bundy was adequate through four innings, giving up two runs on four hits while striking out two and walking none. The real show was the Twins bullpen, who posted five innings of scoreless innings. Trevor Megill posted a perfect fifth inning followed by a perfect sixth from Griffin Jax. Caleb Thielbar and Michael Fulmer combined for perfect seventh and eighth innings with three strikeouts and flamethrower Jhoan Duran made things interesting, but he posted a two-strikeout ninth inning to secure the win for the Twins. Defense Wins! Perhaps the most brilliant play on the night came in the third inning. With Nicky Lopez at the plate, Jake Cave made arguably his best defensive play of his career with an extra-base stealer in front of the right field wall. Postgame Interviews What’s Next? This is when it counts. Four games down in the AL Central, the Twins head to Cleveland for a five-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 pm tomorrow night. As you can hear in the Baldelli interview above, Bailey Ober returns to the Twins and will start Game 1 in Cleveland. To make room for Ober to come off of the 60-Day IL and join the 28-man roster, RHP Jharel Cotton was again DFAd. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

In a four-hour marathon, the Yankees walked off the Twins in 12 innings at the Bronx. Louie Varland had a lovely big-league debut, but the bullpen relinquished the lead twice. Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Louie Varland, 5 1/3 IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 7K (80 pitches, 55 strikes, 68.8%) Home Runs: Jose Miranda (14) Bottom 3 WPA: Trevor Megill (-.570), Griffin Jax (-.254), Gio Urshela (-.201) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Varland is sharp in his major league debut (pulled too early?) There probably isn’t a much tougher way to start your major league career than the one Louie Varland had to. Called up for the first time on Tuesday, the St. Paul native had been the most anticipated Twins prospect since… what? Byron Buxton? Some might go even a little further and say… Joe Mauer? Either way, the amount of expectation this kid had to burden was enormous. Then, you look at all the elements surrounding today’s game. The Twins have been constantly crushed by the New York Yankees for the past two decades; they have been Minnesota’s perennial foes in the postseason in that same span; they haven’t lost a single series against the Twins since 2018, and not one at home since 2014. The list goes on. This game, in particular, is even more crucial short-term, as the Twins started the day a game and a half back from the Guardians for the division first place. Not being competitive in this Bronx series could be the end of the season for the Twins. Is that pressure enough for the 24-year-old Minnesotan? Before Varland even stepped on the Yankee Stadium mound, the offense made a good effort to relieve some of the pressure and perhaps calm him down. Luis Arraez jumped on the game’s second pitch and doubled against starter Domingo German. After a Carlos Correa strikeout, José Miranda hit a laser to the deep left corner for a home run, making it 2-0 Twins early. Whether or not the run support made a difference for Varland at that point, making him less nervous, we’ll never know. But the fact is that he had a nearly perfect first time through the order to begin his big-league career, retiring the first eight batters he faced. He also struck out three of those batters, including American League MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge for his first-ever MLB strikeout. That’s a heck of a greeting card. Varland’s first hit given up was an Oswald Peraza two-out double in the third, but he responded to that with an inning-ending groundout, his third of the game. Then, the offense came through for him again with some more run support. In the top of the fourth, Germán got two quick outs, but the bottom third of Minnesota’s lineup did some two-out damage. Jake Cave, Gary Sanchez, and Gilberto Celestino hit three consecutive singles, and, with that, another run scored, making it 3-0 Twins. The Yankees responded quickly, though, with Judge getting back at Varland in the bottom of the same inning with a leadoff home run, cutting the Twins’ lead to two. Varland displayed some impressive nerves after that, retiring batters three through five of the Yankee lineup, including back-to-back strikeouts following the Judge home run. Varland pitched into the sixth, facing two batters: he lost Peraza for a leadoff single but came back to strike out Oswaldo Cabrera. Before he could face Judge (the tying run) a third time in this game, Rocco Baldelli decided to call it a game for him. Griffin Jax was brought in, and he got Judge to pop out for the second out, but before he could finish the inning, Gleyber Torres hit a two-run home run that tied the game. Baldelli’s decision to pull Varland when he did cause mixed feelings throughout Twins Twitter. Twins Daily’s writers Nick Nelson and Seth Stohs, for example, had opposing views of Baldelli’s call (here and here). Do you think Varland should’ve stayed to face Judge and Torres? Use the comment section to give your opinion. Bats quiet down, bullpen trio takes the game into extras The Twins’ offense couldn’t bother the Yankees again for the better part of the game, with the only exception coming during the eighth inning. Miranda snapped an 0-for-9 skid with a one-out single, and Nick Gordon followed him up with a single of his own, posing the first Minnesota threat since the fourth inning. Unfortunately for the Twins, both runners ended up being stranded. Fortunately for them, though, the bullpen did a fine job maintaining this a tied game for the remainder of regulation. After Jax blew the lead in the sixth, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Lopez, and Jhoan Duran did a fantastic job preventing New York from scoring. With Duran pitching in the ninth, Sánchez made a huge play catching Tim Locastro trying to steal second with a laser throw for the second out that Jermaine Palacios somehow caught and kept the tag on as Locastro came off the base. Then, after Isiah Kiner-Falefa singled and reached third with a steal and a throwing error, Correa ended the inning with a crucial defensive move. Celestino puts the Twins ahead, but the Yankees tie it, walk it off With Celestino starting the 10th inning at second base, Arráez hit a single to shallow right, and the outfielder was waved around. However, he hesitated a bit heading from third to home and was caught by catcher Jose Trevino with plenty of time. Duran pitched a scoreless 10th, and the game headed for the 11th. After the offense went down in order in the top of the inning, the Yankees loaded the bases in the bottom after an intentional walk to Judge and a walk to Torres. A beautiful 3-2-3 double play prevented the winning run from scoring and paved the way for another inning. Came the 12th inning, the Twins put some pressure on reliever Ron Marinaccio, with Cave drawing a leadoff walk. With a Sánchez strikeout, New York had a double play in order, but Celestino had other plans. He hit a sharp groundball to right, deep enough to score ghost runner Jermaine Palacios from second, snatching the lead back for the Twins. Arráez drew a walk to load the bases before the inning was done, but Correa and Miranda couldn’t take advantage. That lead didn’t last long, though. Kiner-Falefa hit a ground ball off Trevor Megill to lead off the bottom of the 12th, and former Twin Marwin Gonzalez scored from second. Trevino then hit a one-out single that sent Kiner-Falefa to third and, despite getting Peraza to fly out for the second out, Megill couldn’t retire Cabrera, who hit a grounder to short, past a diving Gordon, to bring Kiner-Falefa home and end the game. What’s Next? Game two of the doubleheader is about to start with Joe Ryan (3.88 ERA) on the mound for Minnesota and Gerrit Cole (3.28 ERA) starting for the Yankees. Currently, Minnesota still has the chance to split the series, as both teams are back on the field tomorrow for game four of the series. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Sanchez 70 0 0 0 0 70 Duran 0 20 0 0 28 48 Megill 0 0 27 0 20 47 Fulmer 0 14 0 0 16 30 Thielbar 0 15 0 0 11 26 Pagán 0 0 22 0 0 22 Jax 0 8 0 0 12 20 López 0 0 0 0 15 15 Davis 0 0 11 0 0 11 Moran 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article