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The Twins had a roster jam and an offseason of moves on the horizon when they dumped Gio Urshela for what was essentially salary relief. Given how the rest of the offseason has played out, this move appears to have been a mistake. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports We’ve received more straightforward news on the Max Kepler front these last few days. After speculation grew regarding the Twins possibly keeping the left-handed outfielder, Dan Hayes reports that Kepler sticking around is likely at this point. It’s been discussed how Max Kepler still has value in the right role to help the Twins if he stays. This news does make us second guess parting with Gio Urshela earlier this winter, however. The Twins decision to trade Gio Urshela was straightforward at the time. Jose Miranda is getting a fair crack at being the everyday third baseman, and Urshela’s projected arbitration salary was a bit high for a player whose role wasn’t certain. They followed it up by signing Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million prove-it deal. This all but cemented the fact that Max Kepler was on the way out, as six left-handed corner outfielders on the 40-man roster is beyond excessive. With the addition of Gallo and Kepler apparently staying around, however, the Twins may have misplayed their hand. It appears the plan with Kepler still being in the mix is for Joey Gallo to play a lot of first base in 2023. With Alex Kirilloff’s health being in question and Gallo having some experience there, it makes sense given the state of the current 40-man roster. Consider however that given Joey Gallo's recent offensive struggles, a fair bit of his floor value comes from his defense in the outfield. Perhaps his offense rebounds to passable levels for a first baseman, but his ability to cover ground and throw out runners on the base paths would be all but nullified by a move to first base. Make no mistake, the debate didn’t have to be Urshela vs Gallo for the first base platoon role. It seemed that the plan was to trade Max Kepler for much of the offseason. The Twins asking price appeared to have been high all along, but given the level of player Kepler is at this point and the context of the roster, it’s confusing why they’d play hardball on his price on the trade market. Urshela was a far more valuable player than Kepler in 2022 by any Wins Above Replacement measure and was essentially given away for free because of his redundancy with Miranda moving over to the hot corner. The irony in this is that the Twins now have Gallo, Larnach, Gordon, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Kepler as left-handed corner outfield options and it appears they haven’t lowered their asking price at all. Kepler has a $10 million option for 2024, but do the Twins really plan on paying that if Kepler’s performance from the last two years continues? The Twins current roster includes a massive left-handed logjam with players like Joey Gallo out of position where his skillset isn’t being maximized. Several young players such as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner who should be nearing their chance to show what they can do are now pushed further down the line by the excessive outfield depth chart. They could have a better platoon partner for Kirilloff and one more right-handed bat in Gio Urshela for less money, but instead, they traded this scenario away for a 19-year-old pitching prospect in the low minors. It’s hard to say there weren’t miscalculations on the Twins part this offseason. Looking at the roster now, it becomes clear that Urshela’s value to the team exceeded the value he carried on the trade market. This is further exacerbated by the Twins appearing to overvalue Kepler on the trade market despite the obvious lack of need for him on the roster. If they valued Kepler this highly, why sign Joey Gallo at all as opposed to keeping Gio Urshela or designating that $11 million to a right-handed hitter with more experience at first base? It’s possible Max Kepler is still traded before the season and that the roster makes a lot more sense on Opening Day. As things stand now, however, it sure looks like dumping Gio Urshela for anything they could get was a mistake. Do you agree? View full article

It wasn’t long ago that Jose Miranda could lay claim to having arguably the best offensive season in minor-league baseball. Despite having been a second round pick, he had never shown up on any top prospect lists, and it wasn’t until the 2021 explosion that he got recognition nationally. Now with a rookie season in his rear view mirror, the next step at the Major League level could be a fun one. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Following a .973 OPS across 124 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, Jose Miranda found his way into the Baseball America and MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospect lists coming into the 2022 season. Even as he tore up the two levels previously, there just wasn’t room for him on the Opening Day roster. Last season, Rocco Baldelli broke camp with Miguel Sano as his first baseman and Gio Urshela manning the hot corner. Luis Arraez was a utility defender factoring in both places, and Nick Gordon was even further insurance. As much as Miranda did the year prior, he was going to need to force his way in or wait for an opportunity. It was an incredibly small sample size for Miranda before making his May 2nd debut with the Twins. Playing in only 21 games for Triple-A St. Paul last year, he posted just a .737 OPS during a cold month of April. His 10 doubles were promising, as were the two blasts, but everyone knew what they saw a season ago was real. When the dust settled on his rookie season, Miranda wound up playing in 125 games for the Twins. His 116 OPS+ was a very promising start, and he rocketed his first 15 homers while still contributing a .325 on-base percentage. Through his first 80 games Miranda had an extremely impressive .811 OPS, and it wasn’t until pitchers began to figure him out and make adjustments that numbers slipped late. Entering 2023, plenty more is known for Miranda. Urshela and Arraez are both gone. He will play the hot corner, a position he has more traditionally called home. Despite being lackluster defensively at first base last season, it’s at third where he shines a bit brighter. He’ll again have veteran Carlos Correa to guide him on the left side, and their friendship has only strengthened since the Puerto Rican descended upon Spring Training last year. Knowing where he stands within the organization should provide some level of comfort this spring. Miranda is projected to be worth 2.6 fWAR per Steamer, which would more than double his 2022 value. A .269/.324/.449 slash line reflects a nice jump in overall OPS, and 20 homers would be a good boost from the power production a season ago. Steamer also has these numbers derived from just 133 games, which would only be slightly more than Miranda played at the big league level last season. Barring an untimely injury, he should be expected to cruise past that number. While it looked as though Correa may head to New York and play third base alongside fellow Puerto Rican Francisco Lindor, his return to Minnesota keeps him at shortstop and still has him playing alongside a countrymen. Miranda has already established himself as a substantial part of the Twins future, but it’s in 2023 that he could break out to an even higher level. For a guy that is not at all unaware of success in this sport, seeing growth in year two of the majors would be a substantial boost for all involved. Plenty of the Twins lineup will be reliant on youth doing the heavy lifting, and for a team that isn’t old by any means, there is no reason why the 24-year-old Miranda can’t be right in the thick of it. The rookie debut was a fun one, but a breakout similar to that of which we saw on the farm in 2021 would carry the Twins youngster to new heights. View full article

As we approach the end of 2022 and look forward to what 2023 will bring, let's take a look back at 2022 and remember what some of the biggest topics were for Twins fans. To do so, we will look at the top 20 most viewed articles this year. 2022 was many things for a baseball fan and specifically fans of the Minnesota Twins. The year began with the players locked out by the owners. They reached an agreement in early March and spring training soon began. The Twins were incredibly busy after the lockout ended, signing players left and right. No one could have anticipated the Twins signing Carlos Correa to a record contract. The season began with some optimism, hoping that the 2022 season was the anomaly. Things started well. The team was fairly healthy and found themselves in first place. They remained in that spot until late August when things went downhill in a hurry and injuries caught up. But, we did starting seeing some quality pitching prospects emerge in 2022. Griffin Jax adjusted very well to the bullpen while Jhoan Duran and Josh Winder made the opening day squad. As the season progressed, we saw more and more pitchers debut. In addition, Luis Arraez got some notoriety. He was the AL Batting Average champion, went to his first All-Star game, was a nominee for a Gold Glove, and won his first Silver Slugger Award. Byron Buxton went to his first All Star Game, started and homered. And finally, the offseason has clearly been frustrating for many Twins fan so far. Fortunately, it can still be salvaged. Things went well for Twins Daily as well. After a few years of Covid, and then a lockout, it was difficult to drum up interest in the club. However, our fantastic writing staff put out a ton of excellent content all year and Twins fans found their way here. We had some nice numbers throughout the summer, but December has been a very good month. So, let's take a look back at the Twins 2022 season by looking at which articles were viewed by the most people. It's not an exact representation, but it does take a look at some hot-button topics, some intriguing questions, lots of transactions and analysis and much more that intrigued us all year long. With that, in part 1 we will look back at the articles ranked 16-20 according to Page Views. Share your thoughts and memories on them below. #20 Louie Varland will Make his MLB Debut for Twins on Wednesday September 5 Seth Stohs Louie Varland was the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2021 when he put up great numbers in Low-A Ft. Myers and High-A Cedar Rapids. He began the 2022 season at Double-A Wichita. In early August, he was promoted to Triple-A and had the opportunity to pitch in his hometown, for the St. Paul Saints. He made a handful of starts for the Saints when the Twins had a need for a spot starter. We learned a couple of days ahead of time that Varland would be making his MLB debut for the Twins in Yankees Stadium. We were excited with the news. Twins fans were excited. And Varland came through with a fantastic debut against the Yankees. His first big-league strikeout victim was MVP Aaron Judge. His first big-league home run allowed was to MVP Aaron Judge. All things considered, it was a fantastic debut for Varland. He went 5 1/3 innings and was charged with two runs on three hits. He walked two and struck out seven batters. He left the game with a runner on and one out in the sixth inning. Griffin Jax came on and got Judge to pop out, but Gleyber Torres homered to give the Yankees a 3-1 lead. The Twins came back to tie the game and sent it to extra games. Unfortunately, the Yankees won 5-4 in 12 innings. #19 Minnesota’s Return for Berrios Continues to Look Better June 30 Ted Schwerzler As the trade deadline was approaching, Ted took a look back one year to when the Twins traded All Star right-hander Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays for shortstop Austin Martin and right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson. While Martin hasn’t raced to the big leagues as quickly as many thought he might when he was the fifth overall pick in the 2020 draft, but the talent and athleticism is certainly still there. He missed time with injury but made up for it with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Woods Richardson had a strange 2021 season, but after a normal offseason and spring training, he got off to a fast start in 2022. He didn’t give up an earned run for the first month of the season. He missed about a month due to Covid, but he came back strong. Late in the year, he was promoted to Triple-A, and he made one start for the Twins in the season’s final week. He gave up three runs (2 earned) on three hits and two walks over five innings. However, he gave up two runs in a rough first inning and settled in well. On the other side of the spectrum, it was a tough season for Jose Berrios. He went 12-7 despite an ERA of 5.23 and a WHIP of 1.46. He made all 32 starts and worked 172 innings. He led the league in both hits allowed (199) and in earned runs allowed (100). That came after signing a seven-year, $131 million extension with the Blue Jays. He will be the team’s #4 starter heading into the 2023 season, but it is likely he will be much better as well. #18 Too Many Outfielders, Another Perplexing Acquisition for the Twins December 8 Sherry Cerny Sherry was writing for herself, expressing her frustrations with a few of the Twins offseason moves so far. Certainly the article resonated with a large quantity of Twins fans who are equally frustrated. First there was the trade of one of the team’s more consistent, productive and healthy players in Gio Urshela. Then they signed strikeout-prone outfielder Joey Gallo for a similar contract while they already have several left-handed hitting corner outfielders. Thankfully the offseason is not complete. It will be interesting to see how the roster looks in early March. But for now, it’s been difficult to see the direction. #17 What’s Next for Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli September 14 Ted Schwerzler It’s one of those questions that some fans feel the need to ask when their favorite team is not winning ballgames? Should the manager be fired? Forget the injuries? Forget the slumps and struggles? The reality is managers probably get too much credit when their team wins, and they certainly take too much blame when the team loses. The Twins were in first place into late August, but at that point their pitching staff was decimated. Max Kepler missed the final month. Byron Buxton was out. Ryan Jeffers was out, replaced by Sandy Leon. Along with Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle also ended the season on the Injured List. The Twins lineup often included Nick Gordon hitting cleanup. Gordon had a nice year, but that tells you a lot. Again, when things go bad, it’s obviously a question that has to be asked. #16 The Minnesota Twins Front Office Played Themselves December 15 Matthew Taylor No question, the Twins clear top priority this offseason was bringing back Carlos Correa. It sure appeared to be Plan A, Plan B and maybe Plan C. Sure, they were able to sign Christian Vazquez to a three-year contract, but while waiting for the Correa situation to play out, several quality pitchers signed elsewhere. You can question whether or not Scott Boras and Carlos Correa played the Twins, using them as leverage to get a bigger contract. Matthew also thinks that the Twins front office played itself this offseason. Judge for yourself. Hopefully you have enjoyed this look back at 2022. Be sure to check back tomorrow for articles that ranked 11-14th. View full article

Earlier this offseason, the Minnesota Twins traded third basemen Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels largely due to the fact that he would make roughly $9 million through arbitration. In signing left-handed slugger Joey Gallo, they’ve committed to an $11 million deal. There are a few different things they could be thinking. Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports First and foremost, time has passed since the Twins opted to trade Gio Urshela to the Angels. When they made that move, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were squarely focused on their pursuit of Carlos Correa. While they ultimately fell short as he went to the San Francisco Giants, $9 million for a guy that didn’t project to be in the starting lineup seems substantial. From there, we can also presume that the Minnesota Twins do, in fact, intend to have Joey Gallo start most of their games in 2023. With Urshela vacating third base, talented youngster Jose Miranda will be expected to take most of the hot corner reps. He performed below average defensively last year at first, and Minnesota has maintained that third base is still his long term home. That means Gallo will find most of his starts on the corners for the Twins. His most traditional position has been in right field. As much as Gallo is known as a slugger, he also is a plus defender with a big arm. Rocco Baldelli’s lineup currently has Max Kepler penciled into the right field spot, but it has been consistently reported that the longtime fixture has drawn plenty of trade interest. Although Kepler wouldn’t net a ton for Minnesota, moving him has seemed like the plan all offseason. In doing so, Gallo would draw most of his starts in right field. That would keep Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff as the main left fielders, while also allowing Kirilloff to rotate at first base with Luis Arraez. Gallo has played first in his career previously as well, and certainly can take at-bats as a designated hitter for Minnesota. In the same vein of his contract, Gallo compares to the White Sox Andrew Benintendi and the San Francisco Giants Mitch Haniger. He may have a bit more upside than both, however, and a return to 2021 form would do the trick. One would think it easy to assume that Gallo benefits from the shift being banned in 2023. That’s probably a fair assessment given that he’s been outspoken against it personally, and we started to see four man outfields in large part due to his batted ball profile. Eno Sarris wrote a great piece for The Athletic back in September, and Gallo (alongside Kepler) was among the names touched on. In the piece, MLB writer Mike Petriello notes that while Gallo may not see the same shift, he’ll almost certainly still be defended differently. For a considerable rise in batting average, he’d need to drive the ball the other way, and that would be counterproductive to his batted ball profile. Gallo stands to benefit from a strong hard hit rate, and while things may rise slightly for him, his 121 OPS+ despite a .199 batting average in 2021 suggests success even in a non-traditional way. Ultimately there’s a few things Minnesota likely sees in Gallo that made him a worthy acquisition. First and foremost, they now have money to spend. That wasn’t the case (at least not in the straightforward sense) when dealing Urshela, and Gallo is certainly going to start. Minnesota may still very well be operating with a plan to trade Kepler, and that opens up even more opportunity. Then there’s the positional flexibility, Gallo can play all three outfield spots, and that helps to create a more fluid lineup as well. There’s no denying that Gallo was a train wreck in New York last season. He isn’t just a rehashing of Chris Carter or Miguel Sano however. Minnesota is looking at an opportunity to benefit on a bounce back, and even if he doesn’t offensively, there’s arguably little downside out in the field. View full article

It has been four weeks since the Twins traded an impact player in 2022, Gio Urshela, to the Los Angeles Angels for a pitching prospect, Alejandro Hidalgo. Now, the Twins front office has brought in free agent Joey Gallo, another outfielder and lefty when they already have several. Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports Getting rid of Gio Urshela was the let-down of the off-season for me. Urshela came in quietly, didn’t say much, but he let his defense and at-bats speak for themselves. He quickly became a fan favorite and had the whole stadium singing his walk up song’s chorus, “Take this world and give me GIO” with every at-bat. While Urshela had one more year of arbitration remaining, he was due for a big raise and earned it. Urshela hit .285/.338/.429 with 27 doubles and 13 home runs, Two of those homers were walk-offs. The Twins wanted to make as much room as they could to contend for shortstop, Carlos Correa, who ultimately went to the Giants. Urshela’s absence will give Jose Miranda a well-deserved opportunity at third base. So the trade is not illogical. However, when Correa signed with the Giants, it made the Gio trade extremely frustrating; but now, the trade is frustrating and perplexing. On Friday, the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a one year, $11 million contract. Why would the Twins get rid of a steady contributor to the lineup and defense only to bring in a player who really struggled with the bat in 2022? Urshela may have saved them a few bucks in the chase for Correa, but he would have been the better investment. Gallo certainly has talent, but he also spent 2022 between the Yankees and the Dodgers with a mortifyingly low batting average of .162 for the season. When he does hit the ball, he has power and sits in the 94th percentile for hard hit balls. If he is unable to produce at the plate, he can still provide value with his defensive play. Seeing Double More than likely Gallo would play one of the corners of the outfield positions alongside Byron Buxton, but if there is one thing the Twins already have - it’s a lot of left-handed hitting outfielders including Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Mark Contreras, and Matt Wallner The Twins also currently have another outfielder who plays good defense but finds his batting average near the Mendoza Line. Max Kepler has been the subject of trade rumors during the offseason. Kepler struggled with the bat but was a finalist for AL Gold Glove in right field in 2022, a far cry from his breakout 2019 season. Kepler, like most of the 2022 roster, fought injuries and missed most of the season's final month. Both Gallo and Kepler are often mentioned as it relates to the new shift rules coming in 2023. There is some thought that those two hitters in particular lost hits because of the shifting tendencies. Will it help? Can both be on the same roster? More potential crazy trade options It is possible that Gallo may be a replacement for Kepler if he is traded this offseason. Another option is making one the primary DH, though it is likely Luis Arraez will get a lot of DH plate appearances and Byron Buxton will get time there too. Maybe Minnesota can be a place where Gallo can bounce back and flourish. With the rest of the outfield and much younger prospects like Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras, any one (or multiple) of them could be a part of a package deal to get more starting pitching, or any pitching period. But if the Twins don’t trade Kepler, there are two outfielders with similar stats, bats and love to hit into the gaps. Once again, the Twins front office leaves fans scratching their heads with confusion, too many players in the outfield, no Gio, and there is still eight weeks until pitchers and catchers report. View full article

The Twins have been relatively busy early in the offseason, with a couple of trades reshaping their infield outlook and an embattled reliever receiving a controversial contract tender. Read on to catch up on what the front office has done so far and where the roster currently stands. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel and Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports Since we last checked in, the Twins have made news with a number of noteworthy moves: trading third baseman Gio Urshela, acquiring shortstop Kyle Farmer, tendering reliever Emilio Pagan. Let's take a quick look at the details behind each of these decisions, and where they leave the state of the roster as the Winter Meetings fast approach on December 4th. Twins Trade Urshela to Angels Just ahead of the arbitration contract tender deadline on November 18th, the Twins shipped one of their eligible players – the most difficult decision among them – to the Angels in exchange for minor-league pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo. A 19-year-old right-hander who hasn't yet advanced past Low-A ball, Hidalgo is a modestly intriguing young arm, but the return for Urshela was expectedly small. He's a valuable player, but at his projected arbitration cost in the $9 million range, a bit less appealing – especially for a Twins team that hopes to usher Jose Miranda in as regular third baseman next year. For the Angels, Urshela is an odd fit. Like the Twins, they seem to view him as strictly a corner infielder ... but they already have Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh entrenched at third and first, with Shohei Ohtani typically occupying DH. It is very difficult to understand LA's motivation in making this move from the current view. Hidalgo's your usual big-stuff/bad-control lotto ticket. Certainly a preferable outcome to non-tendering Urshela for nothing in return. Pagan Is Coming Back for Another Year With Urshela shipped out, the Twins tendered contracts to all of their remaining arbitration-eligible players – including, controversially, the embattled Pagan. He'll earn a projected $3.7 million in his final year of team control, coming off a season where he earned the ire of fans with numerous lapses in crucial moments. He was the poster child for a bullpen that helped derail a promising Twins season. Now we'll see if he can become the figurehead for its triumphant turnaround. Amidst all the backlash this decision understandably provoked, I tried to explore the team's reasoning, noting that Pagan saw improved results down the stretch with a pitch mix change under pitching coaches Pete Maki and Colby Suggs. It's hard to give up on stuff of that caliber, and the upside it entails. While many fans struggle to make sense of it, Pagan does seem to be viewed much more highly in baseball circles than from the outside. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the reliever "drew much more interest" than Urshela ahead of the non-tender deadline. Farmer Enters the Fold Not long after parting with some veteran depth in Urshela, the Twins quickly backfilled with the addition of Farmer, acquired from the Reds in exchange for minor-league righty Casey Legumina. This deal was, in many ways, the reverse of the Urshela trade: Farmer is a valuable enough player, but wasn't that valuable to Cincinnati at his arbitration price point, so they sent him to a team that could use the depth in exchange for a pitching flier. In this case, it's much easier to see the fit for Farmer, who could fill a number of different roles depending on what the Twins do elsewhere. For now, he's slotted in as their starting shortstop, and an adequate interim fill-in for Royce Lewis if that is the front office's leaning. In addition to his defensive flexibility, one aspect of Farmer's profile that surely attracted the Twins is his excellence against left-handed pitching. This looks like an effort to offset one of the offense's key weaknesses in 2021, when they slashed .240/.310/.391 against southpaws. Twins Showing Interest in Rodon Hayes wrote in a roster projection column over the weekend that the team has "definite interest" in Carlos Rodon, which comes as no surprise. However, Hayes adds, "his contract is likely to soar to areas it might not feel comfortable paying, perhaps as high as $160 million over five years." In a column unpacking the troubling realities of buying high on free agent pitching, I examined this very conundrum: Rodon is exactly the kind of proven ace that the Twins should be looking to land this offseason. He's a dominant force coming off an excellent season, and his addition would energize the fanbase while fortifying the rotation. But, he's also entering the market at peak value, have pressed a career-high workload upon a shoulder that has endlessly tormented him. With Rodon, you're going to be paying purely for the upside we just saw, and hoping it sustains. And the price tag will be quite high, with the free-spending Dodgers already in the mix as suitors. One Current Opening on the 40-Man Roster As a sum result of all this moving and shaking, along with the additions of prospects Edouard Julien, Brent Headrick, and Matt Canterino to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, Minnesota's 40-man roster currently stands at 39: Should the Twins need to be make room for more additions, the most vulnerable 40-man spots likely belong to Mark Contreras, Cole Sands, and Trevor Megill. Roster and Payroll Projection: v2 In looking at the projected 2023 roster in its current form, you can see how the Twins are setting a floor. They've basically got all they need to field a competent ballclub next year: a rotation with five proven big-league starters, a fairly deep bullpen with back-end power, and a credible – albeit somewhat underwhelming on whole – stable of position players. The only openings are a backup catcher and utility infielder for the bench, easily filled. That is not to say going forward with this group would be acceptable in anyone's eyes. But the point is that the Twins aren't backed into any corners, needing to allocate their funds in any specific way – just how they like it. With nearly $50 million in spending room just to get back to the 2022 payroll baseline, we'll see how opportunistic this front office can be, free from any kind of restraint. If you want to read up on all of the team's many options available at positions across the board, the Offseason Handbook is now available in full to download, with 39 pages covering the Hot Stove landscape from every angle. 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In 2022 the Minnesota Twins showed off a handful of their young talent. Some were by way of design, while others were out of necessity in response to injury. Arguably no one forced their way into action more than infielder Jose Miranda. In 2023, he’s a lock for the roster and now a prominent fixture. Are the Twins right in sticking him at the third base? Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Throughout the majority of his minor league career, Minnesota prospect Jose Miranda has played at third base. When he was eventually promoted to the big leagues in early 2022, it came with the caveat that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had acquired veteran Gio Urshela to be Rocco Baldelli’s third basemen. When Alex Kirilloff got hurt and Miguel Sano went down, there was some thought that Urshela could slide across the diamond, but instead it was Miranda who saw the bulk of his playing time there. Although the Twins utilized both Miranda and Luis Arraez plenty at first base in 2022, the dealing of Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels suggests that the young Puerto Rican is destined to lock down the hot corner in 2023. How much should fans be worried about that reality? The unfortunate truth for Minnesota is that their infield defense has not been good the past couple of seasons. In 2022, it was particularly bad. Minnesota fared fine as a whole defensively thanks to a strong outfield. They were held together on the dirt by superstar Carlos Correa, but the likes of Urshela, Arraez, Miranda, and Jorge Polanco were often culprits holding the club back. Specifically looking at Miranda, he was what one may call a butcher at first base. Playing nearly 600 innings at first last season, Miranda posted an awful -6 defensive runs saved and Statcast agreed, attributing him a -4 outs above average number. Among 29 players to record at least 550 innings at first base last season, only the Rangers Nathaniel Lowe posted a lower DRS number. OAA had Miranda a bit better, but 20th still placed him in the bottom third of the league. At third base, in a much smaller sample size, Miranda fared better. He recorded just under 250 innings at the hot corner and was neutral by both DRS and OAA on the season. That could be a positive thing, but small samples are also extremely difficult to read into when considering defensive metrics. Now shifting across the diamond, Miranda will look to settle back into a role he grew familiar with on the farm. One caveat to that is he’ll be doing so alongside someone other than Correa (more than likely). Needing to acclimate to a new teammate, and their range, he’ll also be working in a season where the shift is banned for the first time. Positioning as a whole will be an entirely new exercise for Minnesota. The Statcast data for Miranda is largely unhelpful at third base. He never reached the minimum threshold for arm strength calculations, and while he was credited with the greatest negative OAA value going towards third base, it was miniscule at best. We won’t know what Miranda is at third until he has more time to settle in there, but we can hope that the missteps at first base were largely related to learning a new position on the fly. It would be disappointing to see a 24-year-old locked into first base so soon, and seeing him produce defensively at third base would help to calm those notions. Minnesota has options at first, and they are now counting on Miranda to be the guy at third. Here’s to hoping he can rise to the occasion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins faced a decision on their eight arbitration eligible candidates. While some were plenty straightforward, others were more difficult. Count Gio Urshela among the latter, and now we know his fate: Urshela was traded to the Los Angeles Angels on Friday. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine went into Friday with a full 40-man roster. Eight of those players needed to be tendered a contract for the 2023 season or be sent to waivers prior to being determined free agents. Among them was Gio Urshela, who was acquired along with Gary Sanchez last offseason from the New York Yankees for Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Sanchez is now a free agent, while Urshela had one more season of team control. His fate was in question because it would be false to suggest that Urshela wasn’t valuable for the Twins. In his first season with Minnesota, Urshela posted a 2.4 fWAR, which ranked fourth among Minnesota hitters. It was also only slightly behind his 2.8 fWAR from the 2019 season in which he broke out for New York. Offensively, Urshela’s 121 OPS+ was well above the mediocre 96 OPS+ he posted a season ago. Although there were low points, his 13 homer runs and gap power came in handy. Defensively, Urshela was somewhat of a mixed bag. Twins fans saw plenty of highlight reel plays from the hot corner, but it was some of the more straightforward plays that weren’t made which dragged him down. Fangraphs own Defensive Runs Saved metric viewed Urshela favorably at +4, while MLB’s Statcast had him at -5 per their Outs Above Average metric. For Minnesota, the determination largely came down to how they wanted to spend their capital, while also figuring out what Urshela’s role would be. In talking to a few sources, they seem content with internal options at third base. Jose Miranda, Luis Arraez, and eventually Royce Lewis can all play the position. It remains to be seen which of them are adequate defensively, but none of them carry the $9.2 million price tag MLB Trade Rumors projected Urshela to receive in arbitration. In knowing they would ultimately decide to move on from Urshela, it became important to find any sort of return for him. Just hours before Friday night's 7pm deadline, the team came to an agreement with the Los Angeles Angels. ESPN Insider Jeff Passan reported that Minnesota sent their starting third basemen to Los Angeles for Single-A pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo . Hidalgo is a Venezuelan native that spent 2022 at Single-A Inland Empire for just his second season of professional baseball. He posted a 4.62 ERA across 39 innings, all of them coming as a starter. He tallied an impressive 58/19 K/BB and is the exact kind of lottery ticket you'd hope to get as opposed to non-tendering a player for nothing. Recently Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson called Urshela the Twins toughest arbitration decision and considering all of the factors, it’s hard to dispute that. As things stand presently, and with Carlos Correa unsigned, Minnesota’s entire left side of the infield remains up in the air. It will be on the front office to sort that out over the coming months before Spring Training. View full article

Friday marks the deadline for MLB teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The Minnesota Twins have a number of decisions to make, ranging from no-brainer to head-scratcher. Let's review each arbitration tender candidate case by case, in order from easiest to most difficult stay-or-go calls. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's front office got a few of these decisions out of the way early by waiving Jake Cave (claimed by Baltimore), Danny Coulombe, and Cody Stashak. All would have been eligible for arbitration, albeit with fairly modest projected salaries. They also took care of business already with Kyle Garlick, agreeing on a one-year, $750,000 contract. It's barely above the league minimum, but the move to strike an early deal does signal at least some level of intent for the Twins to stick with Garlick as a right-handed complement to their LH-heavy corner outfield mix. Eight players remain who are in the designated service-time range – between three and six years – where they can start to negotiate their own salary. On Friday the Twins will need to commit to tendering a contract and keeping them for 2023 (barring a trade) or letting them go. Here's a case-by-case breakdown, starting with the easiest of easy decisions. (Salary projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.) 8. Luis Arraez, 1B Year 2 of 4 in arbitration Projected 2023 Salary: $5 million The reigning All-Star and batting champ is a lovely bargain in the $5 million range. He still has three years of team control remaining so the Twins do have some leverage for extension talks, but there's not a ton of incentive to pursue one for a 25-year-old with bad knees. 7. Jorge Alcalá, RHP Year 1 of 3 in arbitration Projected 2023 Salary: $800K The right-hander technically accrued a year of service in 2022 while making only two appearances due to an elbow issue that never got right. He didn't need surgery and is expected back at full strength next spring, so there's no reason to think twice about bringing back Alcalá, owner of a career 3.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP through 87 ⅔ MLB innings, at essentially the league minimum. 6. Caleb Thielbar, LHP Year 2 of 3 in arbitration Projected 2023 Salary: $2.4 million You don't see many guys entering their second year of arbitration at the age of 35. But then, you don't see many stories like Caleb Thielbar. His mildly escalating cost is the only reason you'd have slight pause in extending a contract, but $2.4 million is a paltry sum for the kind of performance Thielbar provided last year. He'll be a cost-efficient centerpiece of bullpen planning. 5. Jorge López, RHP Year 2 of 3 in arbitration Projected 2023 Salary: $3.7 million Here's where the decisions start to get a little thornier. I'm not going to say keeping López is a tough call, because they'll do it without hesitation, but nearly $4 million could be viewed as a hefty price tag based on what he did for the Twins (4.37 ERA) and in his career prior to 2022 (6.04 ERA). Alas, his first spectacular four months in Baltimore compelled the Twins to part with three prospects for him at the deadline, and will compel them to tender a contract – especially since he has another year of team control in 2024. 4. Tyler Mahle, RHP Year 3 of 3 in arbitration Projected 2023 Salary: $7.2 million It's hard to imagine how Mahle's post-trade time with the Twins could've gone worse in 2022. If he merely performed badly, you'd chalk it up as a rough second half or adjustment to new scenery, and hope for a rebound to previous form. If he tore a labrum in his shoulder or elbow ligament, you'd non-tender without a second thought. Instead, his mysterious recurring shoulder fatigue kept him from being able to pitch at all, leaving the front office with no choice but to gamble $7 million on this issue disappearing in the offseason. They'll do it, especially because of what they gave up to get him, but it's really hard to plan confidently around him at this point. 3. Emilio Pagán, RHP Year 3 of 3 in arbitration Projected 2023 Salary: $3.7 million I'm not saying this decision should be remotely difficult. But ... there's a reason the Twins kept Pagán around all year despite having ample reason to jettison him. The guy has legitimately excellent stuff. He averaged 12 K/9 with a 14% swinging strike rate. But he also got crushed, for a third straight season, because he has shown no ability to consistently execute. With such a long-running sample of failure, the choice to move on at almost $4 million should be obvious. But I don't get the sense it's viewed that way. 2. Chris Paddack, RHP Year 2 of 3 in arbitration Projected 2023 Salary: $2.4 million The righty's past standing as one of the game's better young pitchers, and his three remaining seasons of team control, were key reasons the Twins pulled the trigger on a deal that brought him over alongside Pagan in exchange for Taylor Rogers just ahead of Opening Day. Paddack only lasted five starts before his partially torn UCL gave way, requiring a second Tommy John surgery that will knock him out for almost all of next year. Essentially, the Twins would be paying about $2.5 million for the opportunity to try and get one more season out of Paddack, in 2024 when he'll be in his final year of arbitration. That's probably worth it, but hardly a lock, especially when you consider the opportunity cost of needing to dedicate a 40-man roster spot all winter before you can move him to the 60-day IL next spring. While the upside was once easy to see, you now really have to squint: he's got a 97 career ERA+ and in 2024 he'll be a 28-year-old coming off his second TJ surgery. The track record for pitchers who've undergone it twice is not promising. 1. Gio Urshela, 3B Year 3 of 3 in arbitration Projected 2023 Salary: $9.2 million A funny story: In mid-September I tweeted a 2023 roster projection that didn't include Urshela, and Athletic beat writer Dan Hayes challenged me by saying the veteran third baseman should be considered a lock for at least a tender. Dan tends to be pretty plugged into what's going on and instinctually sound, so I started to adjust my thinking. I even came around on the idea as Urshela finished strong with a .333/.404/.425 slash line in the final month while Jose Miranda failed to impress much at third base. Then, after the season ended, Dan informed me he'd softened his stance and was no longer so sure Urshela would be tendered. (He expressed this view on a recent Gleeman and the Geek appearance.) It seems the consensus on Urshela is that while he's a good and desirable player, that price tag is a tad more than you'd like to pay when you've already got some options. For the Twins, this decision hinges on a few factors. Are they confident enough in Miranda and his defense (or the depth behind him) to commit as a full-time third baseman? Do they have other offseason plans, like signing Brandon Drury or Jose Abreu, that would negate any need for Urshela on the roster? Does the front office believe they could tender and trade him, to keep their options open? I lean toward the last one, so I do think he'll be tendered. But it's far from a lock. View full article

Today is MLB’s non-tender deadline. A couple of possible non-tender candidates are Gio Urshela and Emilio Pagán. Here is some general arbitration talk and discussion on what the Twins may decide to move on from those two players. View full video

The Twins must make multiple moves if they want to contend in 2023. Here is the blueprint I would follow for the perfect offseason that sets up a rebound to contention. Image courtesy of Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's front office has a clear shopping list to improve the Twins for 2023. Shortstop is the team's most significant need, especially with Royce Lewis out until the season's second half. Luckily, there is a strong crop of free-agent options, but plenty of other teams could be looking for an upgrade at shortstop. Also, there is always room to add more frontline starting pitching and to supplement other spots on the roster (catcher, right-handed power bat). Here is how the Twins can address all of those needs. Lineup: Correa Returns to Supplement Youth Movement There have been a few times in Twins history when the club had the flexibility to sign one of baseball's best players. Carlos Correa was tremendous during his first season in Minnesota, and the Twins should spend big to have him return. It will likely take a nine or ten-year deal for over $300 million. The Twins can be creative with their contract offer to Correa and frontload the deal, so the end of the contract is more palatable. To create more financial flexibility, I have the team trading Gio Urshela and Max Kepler for prospects. Minnesota will turn third base over to Jose Miranda, and a trio of young outfielders is waiting to take over in the corner spots. Omar Narvaez is the other essential addition, as he offers a natural platoon with current catcher Ryan Jeffers. Bench: Adding Right-Handed Power Trey Mancini is the most significant addition to Minnesota's bench as he offers an upgrade compared to Kyle Garlick. The Twins lineup is loaded with left-handed hitters, and Mancini adds a corner outfield option that is right-handed. Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino proved their value during the 2022 season, and Jeffers can switch to a platoon role. Rotation: Adding an Ace Minnesota has many starting pitching options for next season, but there is no true ace at the top of the rotation. The Twins' front office needs to go out of their comfort zone to sign Carlos Rodon to a similar contract that Robbie Ray signed last winter (5-years, $115 million). There have been concerns about Rodon's health in the past, but he's been one of baseball's best pitchers over the last two seasons. His addition also adds more depth to the rotation for when injuries eventually strike. Bullpen: Internal Options Spending money on the lineup left little room for changes to the bullpen. Kepler or Urshela could be used to acquire a package that includes a potential bullpen arm. However, the Twins are getting back Jorge Alcala, and there are other young options to add to the mix. Bailey Ober and Cole Sands will be needed in the rotation sometime next season, but they can be used to piggyback Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle to start the year as they return from injury. Minnesota will trust Jorge Lopez to return to form and can be relied on in critical late-inning situations. Other players will shuffle between St. Paul and Minneapolis, but getting rid of Pagan will help the club from the season's start. Final Payroll Minnesota's 2022 payroll was around $142 million, depending on the source. The team will see a slight bump in payroll next year, especially if the front office can justify signing Correa and Rodon to long-term deals. Some of the dead money mentioned below will also be tied to last year's payroll, giving the team more flexibility. Is this the best possible outcome leading into the 2023 season? Twins Daily also allows you to make your own offseason blueprint. Feel free to create your own roster and share it in the forums with an explanation. View full article

Minnesota failed to win any Gold Gloves this season, but there were plenty of improved defensive performances. A respected fielding metric from SABR helps illustrate the team's surprising proficiency with the glove. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric developed by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) is called the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, MLB has used SDI as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are the final rankings for the 2022 campaign. Pitcher (AL Ranking): No Twins Pitchers Qualify Minnesota needed pitchers to throw more innings to qualify for the SDI leaderboard. Former Twin Jose Berrios has been known for his athletic ability, which helps him to field his position. He finished tied for fifth in the AL. According to SDI, Cleveland's Shane Bieber ranked as the best fielder, and he won the Gold Glove. Catcher (AL Ranking): Gary Sanchez 0.6 SDI (12th) Sanchez took over the full-time catching duties after Ryan Jeffers broke his thumb. Minnesota worked hard with Sanchez to improve his receiving this year. Last season, he ranked as the AL's worst catcher with a -8.2 SDI, and there are four players worse than him in 2022. Jeffers' last posted SDI total was 2.0, but his injury meant he didn't have enough innings to be on the leaderboard. First Base (AL Ranking): Luis Arraez 2.1 SDI (1st) Arraez was a Gold Glove finalist at first base and led the league in SDI. However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.was awarded the Gold Glove even though his SDI total was 1.9 points lower than Arraez. In the second half, Arraez moved from a -0.5 SDI to the league's best total while also playing through injury. It was a terrific defensive season for a player with limited first-base experience entering the 2022 campaign. Second Base (AL Ranking): Jorge Polanco -2.7 SDI (13th) Polanco gained rave reviews during his first season at second base in 2021, but the 2022 season was a different story. Only three qualified second basemen finished with a lower SDI. Polanco dealt with injuries during the season, which likely hindered his defensive performance. Minnesota can hope that Polanco is healthier in 2023 and can move back up the SDI leaderboard. Third Base (AL Ranking): Gio Urshela 0.8 SDI (T-5th) Urshela's defense was one of the most significant in-season improvements for the Twins. At the season's midway point, only one AL third baseman ranked lower than Urshela. He shot up the rankings in the second half and finished tied for fifth with Houston's Alex Bregman. Former Twin Josh Donaldson finished second among the AL's third basemen with a 7.3 SDI. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa 1.6 SDI (9th) Correa was a Gold Glove finalist, but his SDI ranking was a roller coaster throughout the season. His early season defensive numbers were disappointing, but he slowly climbed the SDI leaderboard and ranked in the AL's top-five shortstops at the end of August. His bat was terrific in September, but he posted a negative SDI and dropped four spots in the rankings. Houston's Jeremy Pena, Correa's replacement, became the first rookie shortstop to win the Gold Glove. Left Field (AL Ranking): Nick Gordon 0.1 SDI (5th) Gordon surprised the Twins in multiple ways this season on his way to becoming the team's most-improved player. He'd played infield for most of his professional career, but Minnesota needed him as an outfielder. According to SDI, he finished the year in the top 5 among AL left fielders, which is a testament to his athletic ability. Center Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified Byron Buxton missed time at the season's end and started nearly 37% of his games as a designated hitter. When healthy, he is among baseball's best defensive outfielders. The AL Central had arguably the league's best centerfield defenders, with Cleveland's Myles Straw and Kansas City's Michael A. Taylor finishing 1-2 in the SDI rankings. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 6.3 SDI (2nd) Like Correa and Arreaz, Kepler was a Gold Glove finalist. Kepler slowly increased his SDI rankings throughout the season but needed more to catch Houston's Kyle Tucker. In the final rankings, Kepler was 0.8 SDI points behind Tucker, who was awarded the Gold Glove. Kepler's defense has become his calling card. Will the Twins look to trade him this winter? Which rankings above surprise you the most? Did Arraez get robbed of a Gold Glove? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

MLBTR released their arbitration estimations for the 2023 season,which are normally very accurate. Which Twins are extension candidates? Which are locks to be tendered a contract? Should any be welcomed to test their luck on free agency? View full video