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At this point of the Minnesota Twins offseason, it could be argued that Max Kepler being traded is more a matter of “when” than “if.” As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine put together the 2023 roster, they’ll need to figure out the glut of players in their outfield. What exactly is the German’s trade value though? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Even before the Twins decided to spend $11 million on one season of Joey Gallo, there was reasonable expectation that Max Kepler’s days with Minnesota may be done. He is basically a known commodity at this point in his career, and while that’s not necessarily a bad thing, the front office likely isn’t worried about being burned by future development. In 2019, when Rocco Baldelli’s club went Bomba Squad on the season, Kepler posted a career year. His 123 OPS+ was easily a high water mark, and well above the 101 OPS+ he owns as a current career average. He had blasted 20 home runs just once previously during a season in his career, and he nearly doubled that with 36 in 2019. Kepler’s bugaboo offensively over the course of his career has been the way in which he contacts the ball. He makes solid contact and drives the ball, but his launch angle and swing path routinely generate the least desirable outcome. He gets very little lift on the baseball, and so even with the banning of the shift, he doesn’t stand to benefit a substantial amount. Generating a greater slugging percentage would require a change in approach, and Kepler has previously stated a desire to drive the ball towards the ground. Obviously his offensive profile limits his overall value, but defensively he’s nothing short of a Gold Glove caliber defender. Despite never having won the award, he fares well by both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved standards. He’s somewhat stretched in centerfield, at least at Target Field, but he’s exceptional as a corner outfielder. In and of itself, that should have value. When considering trading Kepler, Minnesota is likely doing so to create room and opportunity. In line to make just $8.5 million in 2023 however, dumping him for nothing is probably not a desired path to take. In seeing how the Arizona Diamondbacks benefitted from moving talented outfielder Daulton Varsho, there’s reason to believe Kepler’s return may be misstated. Yes, Varsho is five years younger than Kepler and has already posted a better fWAR than the Twins outfielder ever has, but their game is not all that separate. Results are truly what divides the two, but Kepler has equal or better inputs at the plate. Defensively, Varsho is an exceptional outfielder while also having the ability to catch, but as stated Kepler is no slouch with his glove either. The New York Yankees have been tied to the Twins as a potential trade partner for Kepler, and that has made sense from the time it was reported they wouldn’t go to great lengths for Andrew Benintendi. Gallo didn’t work for Aaron Boone’s club last year, and while Aaron Judge returns, the outfield remains largely in flux. Aaron Hicks is a consistent injury concern, and Giancarlo Stanton isn’t an ideal defender. Harrison Bader is a great defensive talent, but has never shown a consistent offensive ability. There’s certainly a need that could be filled. Even if it isn’t the Yankees, reports have suggested Minnesota will have no shortage of suitors when it comes to Kepler. That doesn’t mean the return is necessarily going to be earth-shattering. Likely, the front office is targeting prospects in return for their current starter. What Kepler’s desirability could do though, is create an opportunity for the Twins to choose the best package from any number of teams that come calling. Don’t expect Minnesota to net a top 10 prospect as the Diamondbacks did in Gabriel Moreno, but moving Kepler certainly isn’t just a way to clear salary or open a position. It may have been fair to suggest that going into the offseason, but the right fielder’s market doesn’t seem to be shaping up that way. View full article

Ryan Jeffers is the lone catcher on the Twins' 40-man roster, so it's a clear need for the team. What are some available trade options as the hot stove begins to heat up? Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports The Twins still have plenty of confidence in Ryan Jeffers, but the club prefers to have catchers split time behind the plate. Last season, Jeffers hit .208/.285/.363 (.648) with ten doubles and seven home runs. However, those numbers only tell part of the story. Jeffers destroys left-handed pitching with a .909 OPS against lefties in 2022. The Twins will still use Jeffers against right-handed pitchers, but adding a left-handed hitting catcher would be the team's preference. Finding a southpaw backstop might be a challenging proposition. MLB's Winter Meetings allow front offices to continue trade conversations, and the Twins have already discussed trading for catching depth. According to KSTP's Darren Wolfson, Minnesota has spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Braves about their catching depth. Let's reevaluate the trade options on each of these clubs. Oakland: Sean Murphy Murphy's name has swirled in the rumor mill over the last couple of days, with reports saying a deal was getting close. Atlanta (see below) was rumored to be involved, but the Braves have made it clear they are out of the running. Oakland wants to get major league ready players instead of prospects for Murphy, and they have shown the ability to be patient in the past. In 2022, Murphy hit .250/332/.426 (.759) with 37 doubles and 18 home runs in 148 games. He started 111 games at catcher last season and ranked ninth in SABR's Defensive Index. Murphy also ranks in the 96th percentile for pop time to second base and in the 86th percentile for framing. He is under team control for three more seasons, so acquiring him will take quite the offer. Blue Jays: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno The Blue Jays have a surplus of big-league-caliber catchers on their roster, so it makes sense for the club to deal one of them. Jansen posted a 141 OPS+ in 72 games last season, but he isn't as strong behind the plate as some of the other trade options. Kirk is coming off an All-Star season where he accumulated 3.9 WAR, so it will be hard to pry him away from the Blue Jays. Moreno had an .806 OPS at Triple-A last season and hit .319/.356/.377 (.733) in 25 big-league games. The Blue Jays may want to hang on to their young catchers if a player becomes injured, but the Twins may have something to help Toronto's roster. Atlanta: Travis d’Arnaud Like the Blue Jays, the Braves have three MLB-caliber catchers on their 40-man roster. William Contreras broke out last season, which might allow the team to trade a veteran like d'Arnaud. Atlanta owes him $8 million in 2023, and there is an $8 million team option for 2024. Last season, he hit .268/.319/.472 (.791) with 25 doubles and 18 home runs on the way to his first All-Star selection. He is an above-average pitch framer (76th percentile) and ranked second among NL catchers in SABR's Defensive Index. If Atlanta acquired Murphy, d'Arnaud might be easier for another team to acquire. The Twins clearly need to add to the organization's catching depth. Of the names mentioned above, d'Arnaud is a good target for the Twins. He doesn't form a natural platoon with Jeffers, but left-handed catchers can be rare. His years of team control and past offensive performance make him intriguing, especially if the Twins want an upgrade behind the plate. Will the Twins trade for a catcher? Which name is the most logical trade target? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article