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While the Twins have established a sad record of playoff futility for twenty years now, they have a record of remarkable accomplishment in another area: they have conditioned their most devoted fans to accept that the team will operate in a way that is likely to perpetuate that futility. That is, the Twins will continue to be cheap spenders. I already know well the eye-roll this complaint elicits among many of the Twins’ most devoted and intelligent fans: How can anyone say that now? Look at the money the Twins shelled out to bring Carlos Correa back (with more than a little help from some extraordinarily bizarre events). Look at the other big name free agents the Twins have brought in in recent years: Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson, for example. Look at how they secured Byron Buxton through the prime of his career. Carl Pohlad is not with us anymore. This isn’t 2000. Thank your lucky stars the current Pohlads aren’t the cheap hucksters like those who currently run the Pirates, Athletics, or Orioles, to name a few of the truly poor unfortunate souls. Certainly I’m glad the Twins aren’t being run like those ponzi schemes, but if we love this team, we shouldn’t let being better than the absolute worst be our standard for satisfaction. Right now the poster child for small-market teams spending like high rollers is the San Diego Padres. They are stacking their roster with talent by writing checks so large that even the late George Steinbrenner might’ve hyperventilated to write them. This is despite San Diego being ranked by Sports Media Watch as one of the smallest markets in Major League baseball, with only three markets (Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee) being ranked as smaller. San Diego ranks 30th of all sports markets. Minneapolis ranks #15, But San Diego is not actually a brand new outlier and unique case in this. According to Spotrac.com, in 2012 the 5th-highest payroll in baseball belonged to the Detroit Tigers. Detroit is ranked as the #14-sized U.S. sports market, just ahead of Minneapolis. Do you know what else the 2012 Detroit Tigers did? They made the World Series. Check any sources about MLB payroll history and you’ll find other examples of teams in markets close to the size of Minneapolis or smaller making appearances among the highest spenders. The St. Louis Cardinals are in a much smaller market than the Twins and they consistently outspend the Twins and are very often in or near the top 10. They are also consistently making the postseason, with two World Series victories and two other World Series appearances in the span of time that the Twins’ playoff losing streak covers. This brings up another favorite rebuttal for Twins commentators who defend the Twins’ spending habits as reasonable: spending guarantees nothing. This is certainly true. Until Mets owner Steve Cohen came along, the Yankees were the poster-children of big-market big-spenders, yet they haven’t reached the World Series since 2009. Spending is never a guarantee of anything, but being among the bigger spenders is a bigger advantage than most fans seem to realize. Take a look at recent history (information I compiled using payroll information from Spotrac.com): Looking at these trends (and going back at least until the mid-90s shows similar correlations), it’s not much of an oversimplification to divide MLB teams into two tiers: the Top 12 spenders and the Bottom 18 spenders. The large majority of playoff game victories and World Series game victories- the kinds of things that produce the most fan excitement- tend to go to the teams in the Top 12 club. The teams in the Bottom 18 club are generally fighting for scraps. And before you get too starry-eyed that MLB’s expanded playoffs will change this dynamic, you should know that last year’s World Series teams were 2022’s #4-spending Phillies and #8-spending Astros. Every season, the Twins and most of their fans seem to hold this idea that since the Twins play in the weak AL Central, all they have to do is win the division and then get to the playoffs where it’s all a crapshoot and anything can happen. Well, look at that table again. The World Series is the last round of the playoffs, and World Series game victories are still heavily clustered in the Top 12 club. In fact, from 2016 through 2022, the only team to win the World Series that was not among that season’s top 12 spenders? The 2017 Houston Astros. Know anything about them? Maybe the playoffs are a crapshoot but going deep in the playoffs still tends to be reserved for the high rollers. There are exceptions to this, of course. The Cleveland Baseball Team famously reached that classic 2016 World Series against the Cubs and the notoriously cheap-but-scrappy Tampa Bay Rays have been perpetual contenders since they reached the 2008 World Series. But note one thing about those two small-spending scrappy organizations: they haven’t actually won a World Series in recent history (or ever, in the Rays’ case). Same thing was true for the much-revered Moneyball A’s of the aughts. This is not to say a cheap team can’t win the World Series. The 2003 Marlins ranked around #22 in payroll that year. You might also have stopped reading this already to tell me about the 2014 & 2015 Kansas City Royals. Well the Royals were out of the Top 12 club both seasons but even they- the microscopic-market Royals- bumped up to #13 in MLB payroll the year they won their World Series in 2015. Just one spot out of the Top 12. So it can happen, but the odds are stacked heavily against any team trying to win a ring while spending with Bottom 18 club. A person with weights strapped to their ankles can also still win a race. The Twins have been in the Bottom 18 every season this century save for the first two seasons in Target Field, and even in those years they were near the bottom of the Top 12 club (around #9-#11 depending on your source). Looking at the success trends in that table, it really should be no surprise that a team consistently in the Bottom 18 club would be the team to suffer a record playoff losing streak. They perfectly fit the spending profile of a team whose ceiling is an early-round exit in the playoffs. For 2023, I think the Twins have put together a roster that could win the AL Central. I also think their absolute ceiling looks like a divisional round exit, much like last season’s AL Central champs. I also don’t think anyone should be surprised if the Twins miss the playoffs for a 3rd straight season. Their offense needs a lot of things to go right and very little to go wrong. And Emilio Frickin’ Pagan is likely to be on the team. If the Twins want to get past the likes of the Astros or Yankees or any team of a similar caliber, they need a lineup that can put up a couple big innings against elite aces. But the Twins lineup only has two truly established elite bats, and both of them have well-publicized injury risk. While nearly every other bat has potential, it’s just not the kind of established potency that a team can rely on to deliver in October. I am more hopeful about the Twins pitching, but still think they would have to be regarded as underdogs against the elite lineups they would see in the playoffs. The Twins have an outline in place to build a deep-run contender. Every dimension of the team only looks one or two pieces away from looking very formidable. And I mean playoff formidable, not AL Central formidable. Maybe just one true-ace kind of starting pitcher, like a Justin Verlander, Jacob DeGrom, or Carlos Rodon. Maybe two more established, reliable bats in the lineup like Josh Bell and Mitch Haniger (whom Nash Walker of Locked On Twins said would’ve been a “perfect match”). All those players I named were free agents this past winter. Let’s imagine the Twins had outbid the teams that signed Rodon, Haniger, and Bell and landed those three. That probably adds about $60 million to the Twins payroll. Sounds absurd, but it would still only place the Twins around #8 in 2023 MLB payrolls. And it sounds even less egregious when you consider that the Twins are dropping $19 million on just Max Kepler and Joey Gallo in 2023, two much bigger gambles even with less money at stake. Even if you have quibbles with Bell, Haniger, and/or Rodon, the point is that spending some money on three or four more big pieces could take them from looking like a 2nd-tier playoff team at best to a much more serious contender. And the Twins don’t even have to spend like the much-smaller-market San Diego Padres to get there. They don’t even necessarily need to spend like the 2012 Tigers did. Given that the Twins have now locked up Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton for the rest of their prime ages, that they have 6 or more potential quality starting pitchers on their roster, an improved bullpen, and a lot of young offensive talent potentially on the rise like Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, Edouard Joulien, Alex Kiriloff, Brooks Lee, and Matt Wallner, the time to make a big push for a World Series is very soon, Twins fans should not be content with starting the next 4 or 5 seasons thinking “we have a decent shot to win the AL Central.” They should take Carlos Correa’s mindset about building a championship culture seriously and demand that mindset be adopted all the way up to the Pohlad family. In a superb article for The Ringer in November, 2022, which I highly encourage you to read in full, Dan Moore wrote: “Over the past 40 years or so, every single team in all four of the United States’ major sports has increased exponentially in value—inexorably through all manner of catastrophe, and at an average rate that far outpaces that of both inflation and the S&P 500… Today pro sports teams rank among the most reliably lucrative, rabidly coveted investment opportunities there are. They’ve proved practically impervious to the busts, recessions, foreclosure crises, and plagues that have at the very least stalled growth in other industries.” The Pohlad family, like all owners, are sitting on a gold mine. All major sports teams, even the crappy ones, have continuously grown exponentially in value for decades, and Moore’s excellent article goes into great detail about the many conditions that make it likely that teams will continue to grow in value for the foreseeable future. I’m not even saying the Twins need to be a top 5 spender for decades to come. But I am definitely saying that they should be making a strong push for the World Series for the next 5-6 years and at minimum that probably means pressing into the top 10 spenders to make it happen. Twins fans should be content with no less. It is certainly a risk to spend so much money on a handful of players. If one or two suffers a serious injury that is a lot of resources flushed away. It could very well fail. But you know what else is a pretty well-established risk if your goal is to make it back to the World Series for the first time in over 30 years? Being in MLB’s Bottom 18 spenders club. The Twins have been trying that for over two decades now. An entire generation of Twins fans have now reached adulthood with no memory of their team even winning a playoff game. It’s time to take some different risks.

In my first blog entry, the last thing I want to lead off with is a topic that has already been picked apart ad nauseam. The Carlos Correa offseason free agency saga has been analyzed 500 different ways. But, for me, one part of the finalized contract still makes me scratch my head and wonder if there is more to the story. Much has been made about the ankle and who knew what and when. The Twins have maintained that they already knew about the ankle and it did not stop them from reportedly offering Correa a 10 yr/$285M contract initially. They knew that wasn't going to be enough but weirder things have happened, right? Obviously, you know how it went after that. The Giants and Mets both offered much more than the Twins but both backed out after using the same doctor to examine the same MRI. That's when the Twins reentered the picture and signed Correa to the 6 yr/$200M contract with 4 team options. A full no trade clause and no player opt outs. To me, when you compare the initially offered 10 yr/$285 against the finalized 6 yr/$200 that is where I still have questions. If the Twins already knew about the ankle and were confident to offer the 10 yr/$285M initially, why was the final contract only 6 yr/$200M? Initially I figured Correa lost leverage when the Giants and Mets were no longer in the picture, thus, less money and years. But Scott Boras, Correa's agent, is much savvier than that. If he put out word to the rest of the league that arguably the best SS in the majors is now available for less money and years, you would have a lot of other teams want to jump back into talks. That alone would be enough for Boras to force Minnesota to honor the initial offer of 10 yr/ $285M if they wanted to lock it up. Another possibility is the additional medical exams of Correa's ankle did, in fact, uncover new details about the ankle and its ability to hold up over 10 years. That is when I would've expected the traditionally risk adverse Twins to run for the hills. Instead, they doubled down and still offered Correa the richest free agency deal in franchise history (albeit at a discounted rate but its still uncharted territory for the Twins). A 3rd possibility is Correa was simply over all of the drama. He wanted this month long negotiation to be over and to settle into his long term home with his family and still get paid a kings ransom. At TwinsFest, he said he called Boras and told him to "just get it done with the Twins." At that point, just get it done, and quickly, became the sentiment. Whatever it was, the Twins had an elite SS fall into their laps two years in a row. Any chance of a rebuild has been set aside for at least another 6 years so, for that, I am thankful. I would still love to know what changed at the last minute. Bookmark this blog and come back to it in 2027 and you may have your answer.

The Carlos Correa free agency roller coaster continued on Monday night, as a series of Tweets from several different accounts suggested that they had sources who confirmed the Twins had finally called it quits on the All-Star shortstop. This was far from unexpected, as it was assumed that a reunion between Correa and the Twins was a long shot at best. However, it was only about an hour later when Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes dropped a report that the Twins are, in fact, not out on Correa, but instead, talks between the two sides have accelerated recently. With the growing frustration between the Mets and Correa, is a window finally open for the Twins to reunite with Correa? Should the Twins even consider it? The easy answer to the first question is yes. A window is open. Just as the Mets' window opened when the Giants balked at Correa following a flagged physical, there is a reasonable chance the Mets will do the same thing. The window is there, but should it be one the Twins jump in? The answer to that question is much muddier than just yes or no. Correa has been flagged on two separate physicals by two different team doctors for a lower leg injury sustained long ago. The injury is not calling into question how he will perform tomorrow, but rather how he will hold up throughout a 10+ year contract. With as much guaranteed money as we've seen thrown around, it's no surprise that the Mets and Giants have both paused on committing to a long-term deal. With this in mind, whatever Correa's new contract is, it will likely feature a lot less guaranteed money, which is why the stalemate is taking place. On the flip side, Correa was outstanding for the Twins in 2022. He was great at the plate, in the field, and in the clubhouse. He is well-liked by the whole organization and is the type of guy you want to build your team around. Correa would also fill a massive need for the Twins at shortstop, where they are currently slated to start Kyle Farmer, who mashes lefties but is far from an everyday shortstop, regularly. If the Twins can chop off some of the guaranteed money and shorten the contract to a length everyone feels comfortable with, the organization and fans would welcome Correa back with open arms. These Correa stories are exhausted and old, but as long as he remains unsigned, it remains relevant news. No one has any idea what will happen with Correa. Until the pen meets the paper, he will remain a wild card on the free agent market, who could sign anywhere under the sun. The Athletic article by Hayes and Rosenthal is interesting enough to keep Twins fans engaged in a dream of a reunion. Still, until he steps foot in Target Field again, it's best to view the situation as a long shot. What do you think? Where will Correa land? Should the Twins do everything in their power to convince him to stay? Let me know! As always, Go, Twins! *UPDATE* The Minnesota Twins sign Carlos Correa to a 6-year $200M contract with a four additional option years that could max out the contract at $270. The Twins are reportedly "optimistic" about the upcoming physical, which has already been scheduled. Barring another unforeseen twist, the Correa saga ends in happiness for the Twins!

At the beginning of the offseason, Carlos Correa and Scott Boras publicly expressed Correa's interest in staying in Minnesota on a long-term deal. Correa went as far as to say that he was there and all the Twins had to do was pay up. There were soundbites of Byron Buxton and Rocco Baldelli pleading with the front office to keep Correa around. Of course, this was all before Correa signed a 13-year $350M contract with the San Francisco Giants. Upon Correa's signing with the Giants, many people in the Twins community were rather upset, and not without reason. It's frustrating to hear a top tier free agent say he wants to play for your team and all they have to do is pay up only to see him sign a massive deal with one of the biggest market teams in the league. Over the course of the next week, that sadness and anger slowly subsided for many fans, as the focus shifted back to the Twins and how they were going to construct the roster going forward. Who in their right mind wants to sign a 28-year-old short stop with an extensive injury history to a 13-year deal anyway? The grieving process had seemingly reached the "acceptance" stage. The signing of Joey Gallo gave Twins fans something new to argue about, and it appeared everyone had moved on. That was of course until the Giants canceled their introductory press conference with Correa yesterday morning. The speculation and conspiracy theories began to run wild on Twitter and across the internet, but it still seemed a little silly and far fetched. How can it be a full week later, on the day of the press conference, that the deal between Correa and the Giants had fallen through? Then the Associated Press dropped a bombshell story detailing the reasoning for the cancellation as an injury that popped up during Correa's physical with Giant's team doctors. Wow! What a change of events! The Twins might really have a shot to land Correa again! Nope. They would see a second opportunity fall by the wayside as the New York Mets would slide in and swipe Correa for $315M over the next 12 years. What a bummer. Fire Derek Falvey right!? Relax. Let's take the blinders off and think about this for a minute. Carlos Correa chose to take a 12-year $315M deal with the New York Mets. The Mets have a shortstop in Francisco Lindor, so by signing with the Mets, Correa has agreed that he will move to 3rd base. It is commonly known that position players, especially all-star short stops who have won a platinum glove just two years ago, don't usually enjoy being asked to change positions. Players as good at the position as Correa normally see this as a slap in the face, and will laugh at any deal that requires them to give up their position. Playing short stop is the alpha male position. He's the dude of the infield. It's rare to see as willing a shift off the keystone as we've seen with Correa signing with the Mets less than 24 hours after the deal with the Giants fell through. After all, the Twins offered a 10-year $285M contract for him to play short stop for the team he claimed to love and want to remain a part of. So why would he take less money per year to play for the Mets? He didn't want to play for the Twins. There it is. I said it. Maybe it's time to at least consider this thought as a possibility. Maybe Correa and his agent, who is among the best negotiators in sports, used the Minnesota Twins. Maybe there was only one team last year willing to give him what he wanted in his prove it deal last year, so he decided he would head up north for one summer and play in Minnesota. Maybe him and Boras constantly sang their praise of the Minnesota Twins as a technique to get other teams to raise their offers and start a bidding war. Maybe all of this worked. Think about it, the two teams he decided to sign with are two of the biggest market teams in sports. They constantly shell out as much, if not more money than any team in the league. They're almost always competitive. If he was to eat up almost $30M per year with the Twins, would they be able to field a consistently competitive team over the course of a 10-13 year contract when their payroll sits at around $160M? Maybe, but aren't the odds of success better with a team who's payroll is approaching half a billion dollars? This isn't even to mention the sketchiness of the mystery injury that ultimately led to the Giant's deal falling through. Correa came into Minnesota with a history of injuries and IL stints. This was the reason for the 3-year deal with all the opt outs. If he got hurt, he could just try again the next year, all on the Twin's dollar. What could the Giant's doctors have found that would have caused them to back out? It must have been severe in their eyes to cause them to let go of one of the biggest free agents on the market. This mysterious injury should be a major red flag that would cause pause to anyone, except Mets owner Steve Cohen apparently, until they got their hands on him for their own extensive medical evaluation. As the dust settles on what was a shocking and unique change of events, Twins fans again find themselves angry. But I ask, are we aiming our displeasure at the right people? Correa chose two huge market teams over the Twins, and the one he ultimately ended up with won't even allow him to play the position he won a platinum glove at just two years ago. In my opinion, they used the Twins as leverage to get what Correa ultimately wanted, a long-term deal on a big market team. We shouldn't fault the front office for not raising their offer from 10-years $285M after Correa had a foggy medical evaluation. If the events that transpired yesterday resulted in the Twins raising their original offer, I would find that quite concerning. Raising their offer would have been negligent and down right bad business. Correa had his chance to come back to the Twins and play short stop, and at the end of the day he chose to take less money per year to play 3rd base for the New York Mets. Maybe we should stop pointing the blame at the front office for their inability to convince Correa to stay, and redirect it at Correa and Scott Boras for just flat out not wanting to be in Minnesota long-term. Maybe I'm way off here, but I agree with the front office for not going 12 or 13 years, especially after the shady medical evaluation done by the Giants. Let me know what you think, and as always, Go Twins!

As we turn the calendar page over on a new year (or actually replace the calendar I guess), it’s fair to say that we’re all a little bit anxious. We may be anxious about any number of things, but, specifically regarding the Twins, we see holes in the roster, unsigned free agents capable of filling those holes, and a whole lot of nothing in terms of new signings. Everybody has their favorite potential signing and their own opinion on whether Nelson Cruz should come back, but, save for the Minnesota contingent of the Hansel Robles fan club, nobody’s ideal plan has even started to take shape. We’re just waiting, hoping that the holes get filled soon, and guessing at who they’ll be filled by. Though it’s been worse this year due to uncertainty about game schedules and a potential National League DH, this anxious waiting-for-things-to-happen period has become a staple of the Major League Baseball offseason because the league’s free agency rules have one pretty major flaw. Every year, fans have to sit and wait while signings trickle in slowly and the top free agents – some of the best players in the league – can go months without a team. And it’s due in large part to the league’s rules about service time. Under MLB’s free agency rules, a player does not qualify for free agency until they have six years of major-league service time or if they’re not offered a contract by the team that owns their rights (non-tender free agents). This means that almost all successful major-league players won’t see free agency until they’ve been in the league for six years. And, taking into account the significant time players spend in the minors, it means that most are pushing thirty by the time they get to choose where to play (as you can see here). Ok, so what? The issue is that, at 30, most players are at their career peak or just past it, and there’s often no telling how fast a player’s decline will come. There are just as many immediate disappointments like Lance Lynn as there are ageless wonders like Nelson Cruz. There are very few “sure things.” Lynn's failures as a Twin show the unpredictability of signing most veteran free agents And, because baseball doesn’t have a salary cap, the guys that are closest to “sure things” (Realmuto, Ozuna, Springer and Bauer this year) can demand massive, $25+ million per year deals as the price for their services. Understandably, teams are wary of spending this kind of money, but they still want those blue-chip players. As a result, we get long drawn-out negotiations that cause fans to wait while players and teams are stuck in stalemates. And, because many teams are holding their money for the star free agents, the markets for the lesser free agents don’t really start until the big fish find new homes. The result of all of this is a lot of waiting for the upper- and mid-level free agents to sign, and when they do, the best players will cost a scary amount of money and the others may or may not ever significantly help the team that signs them. Major League Baseball could fix this by peeling back the service time requirements (creating younger, deeper free agent classes) or by instituting a salary cap and max contract system (keeping players from demanding such huge contracts), but neither is likely to happen, so it seems that we’ll be stuck with baseball’s inefficient free agency system going forward. Fortunately, this inefficiency actually helps the Twins. You see, if baseball had less stringent service time rules and free agency was more efficient, the wealthy teams that already dominate free agency would become that much more dominant. The better free agency gets, the better rich teams get. Imagine for a second if baseball had free agency rules like the NHL, where players are eligible for free agency at age 27 at the latest (NBA and NFL players see free agency even earlier) – Miguel Sanó and Max Kepler may already be in Yankee pinstripes or Dodger blue and José Berríos would be a year away from heading to Boston. That’s not good. Flashback to reality and the Twins can feature these players for years to come and have time and security to work out long-term deals without having to bid against richer teams. That is good. Major League Baseball’s free agency rules value team control more than any other major sports league in America and team control of young talent is exactly what the Twins have been successful with throughout their history. Sanó and Kepler are players the Twins are glad to have long-term Sure, the new front office group has been able to spend more in recent years and they deserve real credit for turning Target Field into a free agent destination worthy of bringing in players like Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz. But, even so, it’s naïve to think that the Twins could compete with the top spenders in the league if free agency were expanded. The team is still built on developed talent, and that’s okay because they’re damn good at it. “Fixing” free agency would only allow other teams to steal the Twins’ homegrown talent away earlier in their careers. So, the next time you find yourself getting frustrated at the lack of Twins signings or at the fact that Jorge Polanco is still the best shortstop on the roster, remind yourself to be thankful that Jorge Polanco and others are still on the roster at all. Yes, I’d like a more exciting free agency period, too. But, in this case, we should be careful what we wish for.

In my follow-up to the 5 “Under the Radar” Free Agent Pitching Targets blog, I thought it would be fitting to also describe a few key free agent utility players that should come at a bargain. One of the top priorities of the Twins offseason is to find replacements for utilitymen, Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza - both now free agents. In 2020, Marwin and Ehire combined to produce .1 fWAR while costing just north of $10.5M in salary, if it were a normal 162 game season. Injuries to the Twins regular lineup forced Gonzalez and Adrianza to play much more than the Twins would have liked. They appeared in 53 and 44 games, respectively. Gonzalez had a .606 OPS in 199 PA’s while Adrianza produced a .557 OPS in 101 PA’s. Both leaving much to be desired. For this reason, the Twins have to find a way to upgrade their bench in the event of an (inevitable) injury to a starting infielder. But also because Rocco likes to rest starters frequently. A solid utility player will be useful to mix into the lineup on occasion. The two players that they add to the roster need to be able to at minimum play 2B, 3B, and SS. Having one of those players that could also play 1B or OF would be a nice bonus and allow for lineup flexibility. The players below are “value” free agent targets that the Twins could sign to fill one of those needs. Ideally, they would be signed at a low-cost so that the money saved could be applied elsewhere to a payroll that is sure to decrease from 2020. Note: ***Obviously, a player like Kike Hernandez, Jurickson Profar, or Tommy LaStella would be preferred to any of the names on this list. However, signing one of the above names may jeopardize a spot in the lineup elsewhere. Think, “would you rather have Asdrúbal Cabrera and Tyler Clippard for a combined $5M or Kiké Hernandez for $6M?” when going through these names***. Asdrúbal Cabrera Speaking of Asdrúbal Cabera… He could be playing for his 5th team since 2018. Once an All-Star SS for the Cleveland Indians from 2011-2012, Cabrera has spent his last season and a half with the Nationals in an everyday utility role. This has mostly been at 3B, 2B, and 1B. No longer an option at SS (last played there full-time in 2016), Cabrera still offers plenty of positional flexibility and is a switch hitter. Cabrera was basically league average in terms of offensive production in 2019-2020. In a combined 183 games he slashed .254/.331/.443, good for a .774 OPS and also mashed 26 HR’s. While he is not great defensively at any one position, (combined -10 DRS across 1,400 innings in 2019 and 2020) what Cabrera offers you is positional flexibility at 3 infield spots. He is also a fine player if he has to play every day due to an injury. Since 2018, he has started: 120 games at 3B 120 games at 2B 25 games at 1B (22 in 2020 alone) Cabrera could also help the Twins immensely against LHP, which they struggled with in 2020. In 194 PA against southpaws in 2019 & 2020, Cabrera produced a .840 OPS. Cabrera could be a great veteran option on a one-year deal. He also comes with playoff experience, coming off a 2019 World Series championship with the Nationals. Fangraphs projects him for a 1.0 fWAR in 2021 and he shouldn’t cost too much more than his $2.5M salary in 2020. 2018 - '20 stats: Howie Kendrick A fellow Washington teammate to Cabrera, Kendrick does a lot of the same things. Howie Kendrick can play 1B, 2B, and 3B, all exactly fine. He had 0 DRS in 2019 across those positions. The Twins were rumored to be interested in trading for him at the 2020 trade deadline. A hamstring injury, however, ended his 2020 season prematurely. Injuries have always been the question mark for the 37 year old. Kendrick has only played in 100 games once (2019), since 2016. He’s had countless injuries including a torn achilles and a hyper-extended knee. When in the lineup, he is productive. In 630 PA since 2018, Kendrick has produced a line of .322/.367/.516. Good for a .883 OPS and 23 HR’s. He is especially lethal vs LHP where he has posted a 132 wRC+ in 199 PA’s since 2019. His injury concerns, age, and poor showing in 2020 (.705 OPS in 25 games) all are valid question marks. But, if the Twins can find a way to get near his 2019 level performance, they could have a nice value utilityman. He should come at a price tag less than the $6.25M he would have earned in 2020 on a one-year deal. 2018 - '20 stats: Brad Miller Once a SS, definitely not known for his defense in Seattle and Tampa Bay (-36 DRS in 3,300 innings at SS in career), Miller has found a role in the bigs as an “everywhere nowhere man” utilityman. He has played on 5 teams since 2018 and may be looking for his 6th. He has played all over the diamond. Since 2018: 308 innings at 1B 230 innings at 2B 194 innings at 3B 44 innings at SS 102 innings in LF 2 innings in RF As a left-handed hitter, he posted an .853 OPS across 341 PA’s in 2019 and 2020 with 20 HR’s. He has been especially effective vs RHP posting a 131 wRC+ across 299 PA’s but borderline unplayable vs LHP only posting a .619 OPS in a small sample size of 42 PA’s. With two LHH up the middle in Polanco and Arraez, Miller could look to spell Sano or Donaldson on day’s where there is a tough righty on the mound and you need to give those guys a day off. He could also fill in adequately against RHP in case of an injury to Miggy, JD, or Arraez, and in small emergency instances Kirilloff/Cave/Wade in LF. Fangraphs projects Miller for a 1/$2M salary and a .8 fWar in 2021. Both seem like good value. 2018 - '20 stats: Jonathan Villar Villar has played on 4 teams since 2018 (do you sense a theme here?). He’s been an everyday SS/2B his whole career. I almost didn’t put him on this list, but his abysmal 2020 and the pending suppressed free agent market don’t necessarily point to Villar getting a large contract this offseason. Maybe there is a chance he falls to a team like the Twins on an affordable pillow contract. In 303 combined games between 2018 and 2019, Villar produced a line of .268/.333/.424 with 38 HR’s and 75 SB - so he has some speed, something the Twins desperately need. In 2020, he completely imploded. He only slugged .292 in 52 games, producing an OPS south of .600. Since 2018, he has appeared in: 233 games at 2B 136 games at SS As a switch hitter, Villar is more effective from the left side vs RHP where he has produced a .767 OPS in 610 PA’s compared to a .709 OPS vs LHP in 311 PA’s. Villar projects to be the 5th best SS in this year’s FA class behind Semien, Didi, Simmons, and Galvis. Fangraphs projects Villar for a 1/$6M deal and .9 fWAR which seems like overpayment for what the Twins potentially need. But, like I said, the hope is that he could be brought here on a lesser deal. The other hurdle would be convincing him to play a part-time role vs starting which he’s been doing. 2018 - '20 stats: Jedd Gyorko In a somewhat surprising move, the Brewers declined Gyorko’s $4.5M club option two weeks ago making him a free agent. Gyorko was the Brewers best hitter in 2020. Twins fans may remember him from that game-tying homer he hit off Taylor Rogers in Milwaukee earlier this year Gyorko started his career in STL as a 2B but has transitioned into a 3B/1B with the ability to play 2B on a pinch. In 42 G in 2020, Gyorko produced an .838 OPS with 9 HR’s. A big step forward from his 2019 campaign where he produced an OPS under .500 in 62 games. Overall, Gyorko has been a solid offensive producer. Especially vs LHP where he has slugged .480 with 10 HR’s against them in 110 G’s since 2018. With the Twins he would give them flexibility at the corners and injury insurance for Donaldson/Sano. He would make some sense to bring in if the Twins didn’t bring back Cruz at DH but instead keep the DH spot open as a revolving door. Then I could see Gyorko getting starts at all three spots. It’s hard to see him making more than the $4.5M he would have made in this offseason market. He too could make sense on a one-year deal with the Twins. 2018 - '20 stats: Here are stats featuring the 5 players mentioned in this article plus Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza. 2018 - 2020 stats. Please note the two players at the bottom: So, that’s it. Here are a few names that I think would make sense as “bargain” utility options. As you can see from the stats above, each player has provided more offensively than Marwin or Ehire. Honorable mentions: *old friend* Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, and Eric Sogard Are there any names I am missing that you’d like to see the Twins add in free agency?

It’s April 16, 2018. The Twins own a 7-4 record. The front office has added free agents at several key positions to complement an 85-win team from the previous year that earned its first post-season berth in seven years. It's April 16, and despite a string of postponements due to an early spring snowstorm, the team is playing well, and flying to Puerto Rico for an unusual two-game series against their division rivals. Minnesota Twins and Puerto Rico, April 2018 (copyright Brace Hemmelgarn, for Twins/MLB) After dropping the first game of the series, native Puerto Rican Jose Berrios pitches 7 shutout innings in the second game, and the Twins win in the 16th inning on a Ryan LaMarre base hit. LaMarre was a minor league signing prior to the season who won a spot on the team with a good spring. With the win, the Twins reclaim first place with an 8-5 record and prepare to fly to Tampa to play a series against the Rays. Then it fell apart. In the first game of that series, free agent relief pitcher Zach Duke failed to touch first base on a toss from Joe Mauer that would have ended the 10th inning; instead, the winning run scored all the way from second base. The Twins lost to Blake Snell in the second game of the series, and in the final game, free agent addition Addison Reed surrendered a 9th inning, walk-off home run to Carlos Gomez. Then the Twins flew to New York for a four game series in Yankee Stadium. After losing the first three games in their typically inept Yankee Stadium way, the Twins had a chance to salvage the series finale. Starter Kyle Gibson held the Yankees to just one hit over 6 shutout innings, and the Twins entered the bottom of the 9th with a 3-1 lead. The first Yankees batter reached when first baseman Logan Morrison, yet another offseason free agent addition, failed to scoop a not-too-difficult short hop throw from Miguel Sano. That baserunner gave the Yankees life. Two batters later, free agent closer Fernando Rodney surrendered another game winning, walk-off home run, a three-run shot by Gary Sanchez. The Twins flew home from New York on a seven game losing streak. They tacked on another dismal loss to the Reds, extending their losing streak to eight. Their record sank to 8-13 and they would not climb back to .500 for the rest of the 2018 season. The free agent acquisitions prior to 2018 were meant to complement the young corps of players that had been developed internally in the organization, but instead, the free agents seemed to torpedo the season. This season, so far, is different. Much different. Those players from 2018 are elsewhere, and the players brought in by the front office for 2019 are making the plays. First baseman C. J. Cron, coming from Tampa Bay, has proven just as adept at first base as Joe Mauer, making all the scoops and showing more pop at the plate. Many fans (I was one of those) thought that the front office should encourage Mauer to sign an extension for 2019, but Cron appears to be performing just as well. Second base pickup Jonathan Schoop gives the middle infield youth and arm strength that Brian Dozier did not have. Here is his throw from shallow left in Houston April 22 to nab Josh Reddick at the plate: https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1120513457491795975 And, “super utility” player Marwin Gonzalez, despite his slow start at the plate, is making the plays in the field, while filling in at third base, at first base, and in left. His sliding catch in the first inning against the Astros on April 29 saved perhaps two runs, in a game the Twins won with only a single run, 1-0. All of this, while free agent designated hitter Nelson Cruz is hitting even better than advertised. The additions to the pitching staff for 2019 did not seem impactful; however, Ryne Harper and Blake Parker have been assets in the bullpen, and Martin Perez has now strung together four good starts. It’s a group of pitchers who are far outperforming last season’s acquisitions Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, and Lance Lynn. After 30 games in 2018, the Twins had already suffered five walk-off losses. Here in 2019, none as of yet. While it’s yet to be seen whether the pitchers will continue to protect leads, the new additions to the every day lineup are providing enough offense and defense to keep the team in the win column more often than not. As Jonah Keri, writing for The Athletic, summarized it: The combination of up-and-comers in their 20s, big-hitting veteran imports and managerial guidance [from Rocco Baldelli] has borne fruit. A lot can be said of Baldelli as well, the new Twins manager and perhaps biggest offseason acquisition of all. But that's another article for another day. Prior to the 2018 season, the front office might have thought they were acquiring the final complementary parts to a team that won 85 games the previous season. It did not work out that way. The acquisitions for the 2019 season, however, are working out incredibly well so far. And I haven’t even mentioned Willians Astudillo yet.

Coming off a 78-win season, the Minnesota Twins took a step backward from their postseason berth in 2017. With the same core intact, and significant added talent throughout the offseason, it was a relatively unexpected result. With the AL Central remaining down, and an opportunity for the core to put up a more expected result in 2019, winning shouldn’t be far off for this collection. Given the circumstances, this offseason is a big one for the hometown nine, but how do they go about executing on that?Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be tasked with landing the replacement for Paul Molitor. Once their manager is in place, reconstructing the 25-man roster will shift towards being the focus. Now having MLB Trade Rumors put out their projected arbitration salaries, we being to see a clearer picture for what the in-house options may round into. As is always the case, Minnesota can either explore the open market or make deals with the competition in hopes of raising the overall water level. This offseason, each avenue presents some interesting opportunities. Open Market Looking at MLBTR’s salary projections, the Twins would be on the hook for something like $38.3MM spread across 10 players. $4MM seems a bit rich for Robbie Grossman if he’s going to slot into a 5th outfielder spot, and Ehire Adrianza could be expendable depending on how the middle infield is addressed. From there, the Twins have $33.5MM committed to four players under contract (and including $1MM for the buyout of Ervin Santana). That total comes to $71.8MM. Pre-arbitration players still exist on the Twins roster, and there’s a group of roughly seven guys that could or should be on the Opening Day roster. With their salaries checking in at something like $600k, the organization would be looking at roughly $50MM in payroll compared to the franchise-record $128.4MM mark that opened this past season. With that much money to spend, the front office should have plenty of leverage on the open market. A guy like Manny Machado would easily fit within the constructs of the budget, pair well with the current group, and fill a need in the lineup. On the flip side, all the money in the world may not be enough to convince top end talent that Minnesota is the place they want to be. Beyond having money to spend however, there needs to be players worthy of spending it on. Certainly, the class is headlined by Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and there’s a bit of depth to it, but things fall off rather quickly. Yasmani Grandal is maybe the only premiere name behind the dish, Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel headline the pitchers, while the up-the-middle talent is sparse at best. There’s a good deal of names in this class but looking past their warts is something any bidding team must do. Can Josh Donaldson still be an impact player? Is D.J. LeMahieu any good away from Coors? Do you want an aging Gio Gonzalez? Having money to spend is certainly a good problem for the Twins to have, but this market could dictate aiming high or settling, and that’s not necessarily the position you want to be in. Making Deals On the flip side of spending dollars, the payroll flexibility also allows Minnesota’s front office the opportunity to take on contracts. With so much space left in the budget, acquiring a big splash from a team not yet ready to compete, or going through a full-on rebuild, is an enticing option as well. Venturing down this road would cost the Twins prospect capital, but the goal would obviously be to see meaningful returns in the majors. Players like Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, and Justin Bour could all fill Minnesota’s presumed hole at first base. J.T. Realmuto is likely still available from the Marlins, and Justin Smoak or Wil Myers could be on the block as well. Maybe the Royals would move Whit Merrifield, and there’s a list of names yet to be unearthed. Before panicking, the Twins would certainly leave both Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff on the untouchables list. Brusdar Graterol may not be far behind them either. However, with a top 5-8 farm system, there’s depth and top-end talent that would be enticing for many an organization to jump at. Should the front office be more inclined to operate in this manner, their human assets are almost as appealing as the dollars themselves. I’d be relatively surprised to see the market move as slowly as it did this past offseason. There was a bit of a market correction it seemed, in shying away from long term commitments to players reaching a tipping point in age. Machado and Harper will still get theirs this winter, but the rest of the group should have a more realistic stance on what the message from organizations was. With that in mind, I’d also imagine we’ll see more action earlier, and fewer guys showing up to new homes once spring training has started. It will be interesting to see if Minnesota leans one way or the other when adding talent this winter, or if the go with a healthy mix of both routes. Being well positioned financially is half of the battle, and now it’s on the front office to identify the right talent and entice them to the belief that the Twins are who they want to play for. Click here to view the article

Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained?? After years of luke-warm stove off seasons the new front office has made their mark on the roster by signing five players to the big league roster who are ready and able to contribute on opening day. Add to that the trade for Jake Odorizzi and you’re talking nearly 25% of the 25 man roster acquired this off season from outside the team. What is particularly stunning about these additions is the money which was spent on acquiring the players. While the latest additions, Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison appear to be team friendly deals, Lynn will still be the 4th highest paid player on the roster in 2018 and Morrison the 9th. Call is savvy management, or call it bargain hunting, these guys will command a healthy share of the Twins payroll in 2018. In fact, if you look at the 2018 Base Salaries of the five free agents the Twins signed, plus the $2M paid to Michael Pineda in 2018, the total ($34M) is the fourth highest for 2018 salaries paid behind only the Phillies ($56M), Cubs ($53M) and Rockies ($42.3M). Surprised? I was. And what is even more impressive is that these short term deals will allow the front office to continue to have roster flexibility into the future, particularly when the likes of Hughes and Mauer come off the books. After all the dust settles, it looks as though the Twins opening day payroll will be right around $130M. While this is an increase of about 24% over 2017’s opening day number, it puts the Twin’s only right around the median of all MLB teams in terms of total payroll. And how do we feel about being in the middle of the pack for payroll? I’ll take it. Particularly when the front office appears to be adding players in a smart way, to what is already a solid roster of young talent.

Players are the lifeblood of your team. Acquire them well and often. The Minnesota Twins are finally at a point where they have built a team with a lot of talent. Most of that talent is young and still developing into what they could potentially be. They will go a long way towards making the Minnesota Twins a perennial playoff team now and in the future. All those years of losing are...uhh...finally paying off? Wait...that doesn’t sound right. They are finally seeing the fruits of having the higher draft picks as a result of all those losing seasons. This is part 2 of our “Trusting the Process” series on what it takes to build a perennial playoff and championship contending team. The first part, simply called Trusting the Process, was about how the Twins Front Office and CBO Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have helped or let the Minnesota Twins compete this season and why what they did, or didn’t do, at the trade deadline was actually showing how they are trusting the process. At the end of the series, we’ll go over how the Minnesota Twins have done in each area. Maybe we’ll find why they struggled for so many of the last 6 seasons. Today, though, we will continue the series with how a team acquires players and what tools are available to each organization to do it. 4-Tool Player Acquisition There is a process to developing a team into a champion. The front office of any organization needs to trust that process to become a championship caliber team, not just for one season, for every season. That is every team’s goal, to contend for a championship every season. Acquiring and developing players is how teams compete, how they improve and ultimately, how they win. Every team has the same tools at their disposal to acquire players. The major tools are the Draft/Drafting, Free Agency, International Signings, and Trades. They have to use any means necessary to acquire players. If they lose focus or don’t do very well on any one of them, they’re probably not going to become that perennial championship-caliber team. If a team doesn’t draft well, they won’t have many prospects. If they don’t sign good players in Free Agency, they’ll be stuck with bad contracts which will affect payroll and not allow them the flexibility to get other free agents or acquire the players they want or need in trades. If they get nothing from International Signings, they aren’t getting anything from all the time and money they put into their baseball academies and their international scouting and if they don’t make good trades, they’ll either get rid of their best players for nothing or trade their best prospects for very little return. A team may need to make a few moves to help push an already contending team to the brink of winning a championship but, those moves could also change their team for the worse in the future and if they don’t win that season, they may set themselves back because of it. If they’ve done well in all areas of acquiring players, they should be able to recover from those trades.* *One name….Matt Capps! Ughh! First Draft The best way to get players is through the draft. It happens every year and every organization picks and signs about 30+ players and they don’t have to give anything up to acquire these players. Obviously, the biggest problem with the draft is having to wait for 3-6 years or more for most of those drafted players to reach the majors but, if you’ve consistently drafted well, there should always be players coming or close to ready to contribute to the big club. Of course, if the organization has done well in the other 4 areas of player acquisition, they won’t need to rely on rookies as much. If they do have players coming consistently every season, they have the opportunity to trade other pieces to either improve the club now by adding a good veteran or in the future by adding more prospects. We can’t cover acquiring players without talking about scouting. Without scouting or a team’s scouts, they would have no idea how good a player is right now or how good they might be in the future. The movie, Moneyball, taught a lot of us that scouting is now a lot more than just watching a player and seeing their skills in person. Analytics now play a big part in evaluating a player and their talent. Another area probably not talked about enough is a player’s makeup and how he’ll look on television and in a team’s promotional videos. Noooo….not that kind of makeup! Makeup as in what makes each player tick, how hard they compete, how good of a teammate they are and how they handle adversity. It’s not talked about very much because the fans rarely see that side of a player, especially when it comes in the dugout or in the clubhouse but a player can change the whole team with his makeup. The draft is the easiest way to acquire players but it might be the hardest way to produce players. You can get a lot of players at one time but, of the 30 or so a team signs, very few of them make it to the majors at all or become impact players once they get there. That being said, the years a team has control over a player and their salary is a big reason why they need to get players from the draft. Free Agency isn’t Free at All Free agency is the quickest way for a team to improve. Teams can simply negotiate with a player and give them a better deal or more money than any other team. It’s not that simple, of course, and it doesn’t always work the way teams would like it to. Maybe a player just doesn’t fit or wasn’t as good as advertised so there are risks involved with every signing. There is the problem of not getting the player you want and then having to go to further down your list and/or maybe overspending to get the player you want. Free agent contracts in Major League Baseball are getting crazier by the year. Because of how long teams have control of their players, the majority don’t hit actual free agency until they are in the high 20s or early 30s. Obviously part of that also has to do with teams re-signing their players and buying out some of their free agent years but it may make free agency even more of a risk. Depending on many factors, players hit their peak sometime around 30 years old, give or take a year or two. That’s also when most of them hit the free agent market. So, teams are signing players to gigantic multi-year contracts and it’s very likely they end up paying more money as they age and as their play declines. Yoenis Cespedes signed the biggest contract last offseason at 4 years/$110M and he was 31 years old when he signed that contract. Will he get better in the span of that contract or will his play decline as he gets even older? That’s up for debate and it’s different for every player but you might want to keep that receipt just in case.* *”Umm...this didn’t work like it was supposed to. Can I get a refund?” Free agency is a great tool to use to quickly strengthen an area of weakness or to get that player a team might need to get them over the hump but it might not work as well as they'd like it to work. I’m sure that won’t matter when the General Managers get their owner’s checkbooks out next offseason, though. Foreign Signatures The MLB International Signing Period is how teams sign players born outside of the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico because there isn’t an International Draft. So, it’s basically International Free Agency but it’s for prospects and players who are as young as 16 years old. That means every team has to trust their international scouts but every team also has Baseball Academies in the Dominican Republic and other countries so they can develop these players and get them into their system. Look no further than the current Twins roster as proof that International Signings work. 2009 was a good year for the Minnesota Twins on the International market as they signed current players, OF Max Kepler, SS Jorge Polanco and 3B Miguel Sano*. Those players are a part of the core of this young Twins team and it shows how big of a part international signings are for every team. *Pelotero: Ballplayer (2012) is a highly recommended documentary that is mainly about the signing of Miguel Sano and all of the problems that occurred through that process. A sequel, The Miguel Sano Story, is on the way. No release date is available at this time. Trading Place There is also the possibility for any team’s General Manager to pick up the phone and call another team’s General Manager, tell them they’re interested in a player and ask if he’s available. The answer could be no, he’s untouchable, what would you give us or this is what we’d need coming back to us if we were to trade him. It could get done right away. It could take a week, a month or even more. They could get really close to making a deal and then something makes it go wrong. Look at the Brian Dozier saga from last offseason. The Los Angeles Dodgers were looking for a 2nd baseman. The Minnesota Twins have Brian Dozier and the whole league knew he was on the trading block. Did the Twins want to trade him? Not necessarily but he was the player with the most value at that time. The Twins need pitching. Starting, relieving, sales, any kind of pitching. They need it. They wanted a significant return for their All-Star 2nd Baseman who had 2 years left on a contract at a good salary. The Dodgers did not want to give up more than one of their top pitching prospects, Jose De Leon. The talks seemed to go on forever. The Twins wanting another top prospect added to the deal. The Dodgers, not wanting to give up another prospect or, at least, a prospect as high as the Twins may have wanted, decided to go in another direction and trade Jose De Leon to the Tampa Bay Rays for 2B Logan Forsythe. Some have said the Dodgers basically traded for Brian Dozier because of how similar they are but, as the season has gone on, you have to wonder if the Dodgers will be kicking themselves if the postseason doesn’t work out like they want it to. Just like in Free Agency, there’s risk involved in making trades. It’s almost the same thing except teams are giving up prospects instead of money to acquire players in a trade. They can acquire almost any level of player in a trade so if they believe there’s a diamond in the rough and they can get him on the cheap for a low prospect or two, the risk isn’t nearly as steep. Closing Time You may already be home and you can stay here! There aren’t many other ways to acquire players but they shouldn’t be considered major tools. Waiver claims are another way to acquire players but I’d consider that either under trades or free agents. Teams may have to waive one of their own players to get the player claimed on the roster or not so that’s pretty much a player for player trade if they do lose the player or signing a free agent if they don’t. There’s also the Rule 5 Draft. Yes, it’s another way to acquire players but it hasn’t really shown to be a very consistent way to find good players. In the next article, we’ll delve into Trusting the Process of Player Development. After the series, we’ll see how the Twins have done in all these areas of Acquiring Players and Trusting the Process. There has to be a reason they’ve had such a terrible run since 2010. Was it because they didn't trust the process? Thanks for reading our TwinsTakes on Trusting the Process of Acquiring Players! We’d love to hear your TwinsTakes on the subject! Please comment below or on the posts of this article on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or Google+! After all, it is... Our 'Takes, Your 'Takes... TwinsTakes.com

I want to talk about the Twins and payroll, and how we talk about the Twins’ payroll. It’s been about a month since Jack Moore wrote the excellent and scathing The Minnesota Small-Market Con over at Baseball Prospectus Milwaukee. The points it makes are numerous and wide-ranging -- the most important, I think, is “f the billionaire Pohlads had been willing to take a short-term loss, they could have made their way out of the Metronome years earlier without taking the public for such a ride” -- but being published as it was in the latter part of an offseason in which fans have watched the team take very few substantial visible steps toward getting better, most seemed to take it as a chance to complain about the team’s unwillingness in recent years to spend on free agents. And I get it. Having taken the public for said ride and secured a stadium that is maybe the most appealing in baseball, the Twins (per Cot’s Contracts) ended their first two seasons in Target Field with top-ten payrolls, but then fell back to 13th in 2012, and haven’t been out of the 20s since. While attendance predictably declined from 2011 to 2015, it seems a safe bet that they could generally have spent more money than they did in those years and still turned a nice profit. The problem I’ve always had, though, is that this (at the most) is generally where the fan’s analysis stops. They could have spent more money, but they didn’t, and they should have. The obvious next questions that get left on the table, though, are “on what?” and “why?”: what could that money have gotten them, and what makes it a good idea? The 2011 Twins had a $115 million payroll and were coming off a 94-win, first-place year, but with injuries to almost literally everyone -- only Danny Valencia and Michael Cuddyer would play as many as 120 games for the Twins in 2011 -- they lost 99, finishing a whopping 28 games out of a wildcard spot, and it was pretty clear their window had slammed shut. They lost 96 in both 2012 and 2013 (22 and 26 games out of the playoffs, respectively), and 92 (18 out) in 2014. Their season-ending payroll declined, meanwhile, from 9th in 2011, to 13th, to 24th. But, again, what could and should they have spent more money on, and what could we have expected it to bring them? In a league in which the very best player might be worth about nine wins and four is a typical All-Star, the Twins would’ve had to add the equivalent of four or five All-Stars, two Mike Trouts, or some combination thereof (assuming each of them takes the place of true replacement-level players, to boot) in order to have had any chance at a postseason berth in any of those years. That’s not the kind of thing that’s ever happened via free agency--teams have tried, typically with disastrous consequences (check out the turn-of-the-century Devil Rays sometime). But what if the postseason isn’t the goal? What about just putting a marginally more entertaining product on the field? I question whether that’s a thing, personally--it’s the competing that draws the crowds, the Timberwolves are as entertaining as a bad basketball team can get right now and not drawing substantially more than their terribly depressing squads of the last couple years did--but I get that, too. It’s not as though a team puts those savings in an interest-bearing account and adds them to the pot for next year. They would, in a perfect world, but they don’t; those savings go to the owners, and the next year’s budget is its own thing. So to the extent you’re concerned only about this season, yes, you as a fan should want the team to spend as much money as they can possibly get away with, because that money’s gone for your purposes after the season either way. The problem with that is that the one-year deal for a good (or even just “entertaining”) player exists in baseball only when that player comes with huge risks. Most free agents worth signing as anything more than filler in this game demand commitments of three years, or four or five or more. Most free agents are also in their 30s, which means almost without exception that they’re likely to get worse over those three to five years, not better. What that means is that most of the free agents the Twins could’ve signed to make them marginally better or more fun in 2013 or 2014 would still be getting paid as Twins in 2016, and would be less good or fun now than they were then (but probably making at least as much money). When you don’t expect to win, you probably shouldn’t (and can’t, to field a team that avoids challenging the ‘62 Mets) stop spending entirely. But your focus in spending, way ahead of getting better for the now, has to be to avoid hamstringing the team in future seasons, when -- if your prospects pan out and you’re not too bogged down by aging players’ contracts -- you might be positioned to spend to fill more immediate needs and make a run at it. In that light, I tended to think the Twins’ spending from 2012 through 2014 was just about perfect--a weird thing for me to say, as I’ve never been one to go easy on the front office (Tony Batista and Ruben Sierra? Seriously?). In 2012, there was just a long, black-dark road ahead, and nothing to do but fill a couple of the gaps to try to be interesting and wait it out. And that’s exactly what they did, bringing in Josh Willingham (who worked) and Ryan Doumit (who didn’t) to fill in for the departing Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, and otherwise just stayed put and take their lumps. Heading into 2014, with Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and others now on their way, it made sense to take a look at some relatively low-risk, 30-or-younger free agents who could reasonably be expected to be contributing at about the same level a couple years down the line, and they did that, bringing in Phil Hughes (who I’d argue worked) and Ricky Nolasco (who thus far clearly hasn’t), along with more stopgaps like Mike Pelfrey and Kurt Suzuki. For whatever else the Twins have done right or wrong, this is exactly how a non-contending team should spend its money. Should they have spent more of it? Perhaps--but it’s on the one arguing they should to identify where they should’ve spent it and why. Whining that they’re cheap and run by billionaires just doesn’t cut it; they’re losing ninety-plus either way. Show your work. I’ve left out 2015 so far, of course, and that’s a tough one because we know how it ends: the Twins win 83 games, surprising everyone, and miss the wildcard play-in game by just three wins. They entered the last week with a real shot, and as it turns out, even one modest upgrade in the offseason could have gotten them there. That’s cheating, though: the Twins didn’t know how it would end, and I really think they were looking at 2016 or 2017 as their next legitimate chance, and so they stayed the course, bringing in 32-year-old Ervin Santana to add to their stable of average starters who seem likely to still be about average by the next time they thought they’d be competitive. Were there moves that not only could have put them over the top as things turned out, but that they should have made in December or January 2014-15, knowing and believing what they reasonably did then? Maybe! But I’d like to know what those specifically were. (Note also that a first half from Santana might itself ultimately have put them in the playoffs.) So that gets us to today. I’ve been as frustrated as anyone with the lack of activity: Byung-Ho Park is certainly interesting, but hardly fills a glaring need, and there’s not much else that’s even worth mentioning. It feels much like a team with two third basemen and three or four 1B/DH types, which seems to suggest moves to be made, and I would’ve loved to see them land, say, Darren O’Day, an elite reliever who signed a four-year deal to stay with the Orioles similar to the ones the Twins gave Santana and Nolasco. But: O’Day is 32 years old, and at his very best -- at any modern reliever’s best -- is worth about three wins. The Twins had a lot of luck last year, and while I’m looking forward to seeing what they can do in 2016, there’s good reason to believe they’re not quite there yet, with or without the upgraded bullpen. If, as Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA expects, they go 79-83 and miss the playoffs by seven games, O’Day probably wouldn’t have made a difference, and neither would most anyone else. And then what about in 2018, when Buxton and Sano are MVP candidates, but O’Day is 35 and ineffective, while his $9 million salary helps prevent you from signing that year’s Darren O’Day, who could be the difference between an LDS loss and a world championship? I have no answers. I thought they should have done more this offseason, and I sure hope that they do well enough that there’s a worry it might come back to bite them. But too often, we collectively seem to want the team to spend more money without considering (a) the limits of what that spending can actually do, or ( the risks down the road of imprudently committing money now. Fans can complain that the team is cheap all they want -- and why not, it’s just baseball, it’s all in fun, you do you -- but without an idea of how they should spend that extra money, why they should and what might happen if it goes bad, all it is is whining for whining’s sake. Seems to me it’s more fun, more instructive, and, at least in this case, harder to argue with the plan, if you show your work.