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This week we will see the return of the World Baseball Classic. Although certain stars have opted out of the tournament due to injury or in an effort to remain with their Major League club’s, the Minnesota Twins still have more than a few participants. While watching the games, there are a few things to key in on. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports After originally planning to play for Puerto Rico, newly re-signed superstar Carlos Correa will be out of the tournament. He will miss some time this week however as his wife Daniella is scheduled to give birth to their second son. It’s the second time Correa will have missed an opportunity to play third base alongside countryman Francisco Lindor. In his place, Jose Miranda could have been the option at the hot corner, but he too will stay with the Twins as he rehabs a sore throwing shoulder. Miranda and Correa aren't alone in stepping away from the tournament. Star reliever Jhoan Duran also opted out despite already touching 102 mph during live at bats. After signing with Minnesota, Donovan Solano decided he would take the time to acclimate with his new team rather than play in the tournament as well. It appears as though Minnesota still has seven players on rosters for the tournament, and that’s where the focus should be as the action gets underway. Jose De Leon and Edouard Julien are probably the two players least likely to be on the Opening Day roster, but they join the likes of Pablo Lopez, Jorge Lopez, Christian Vazquez, Jovani Moran, and Emilio Pagan as participants. With respect to those playing, here’s some things you should be looking for: Health First and foremost, the Twins don’t need to see injury for any of their players competing in the tournament. The expectation will be that players and managers operate with a focus on the regular season. Although there is a certain desire to win the tournament, each player knows their season ahead is most important. Having already seen Nick Gordon and Austin Martin fall injured during Spring Training, Rocco Baldelli certainly doesn’t want to see more issues for any of his potential players. With Vazquez slated to be Minnesota's Opening Day starter behind the dish, him remaining healthy throughout the tournament is paramount. Minnesota has seen Gary Sanchez be ineffective while both Mitch Garver and Jeffers have missed time in recent seasons. Vazquez isn't expected to be an offensive juggernaut, but he's a reliable talent defensively and the depth in the organization below the Major League level is not ideal. Quality of Pitching The pitchers representing Minnesota in the World Baseball Classic are a very intriguing bunch. Pablo Lopez is the headliner having just come over from the Miami Marlins, so seeing how he looks early against some real competition should be more than exciting. Depending on how De Leon is utilized, it’s Lopez that will be the only starter. From a reliever standpoint, there couldn’t be more to monitor. Pagan did not show well in his spring debut, and tightening things up is a must if he’s going to instill confidence when he takes the mound. Jorge Lopez struggled after joining Minnesota last season, and returning to an All-Star level would be more than nice to see. Moran is certainly battling for a spot in the bullpen, and while he could have an inside track as a lefty, starting strong on a big stage could certainly do wonders. Next Step for Julien Thus far we have seen no reason to suggest that Julien’s bat isn’t legit. He raked everywhere last season in the minors, and then continued to do so during the Arizona Fall League. He has started nicely for the Twins this spring, and carrying that over to elite levels of competition for Team Canada is a must. Given his lack of defensive flexibility, the quality of his bat will be what plays, and if he can showcase it during whatever action he sees now, it could help to influence the timeline he sees in 2023. Team USA is led by Mike Trout and a host of other superstars. The Dominican squad is absolutely stacked. The tournament itself should be a fun one, and there will be plenty of high intensity action to watch alongside the Spring Training games taking place down in Fort Myers. View full article

Fans who were frustrated by the lack of a competent multi-inning reliever in 2022, and also are bewildered that Emilio Pagán is still on the team, may want to look away from their screens. Image courtesy of J Cogbill Photograpy Gone are the days of Terry Mulholland. At least in Minnesota, you will rarely see a strange man sitting at the end of the bullpen bench who will, five times a month, run in to pitch four or five innings of low-leverage relief, only to retreat into the shadows until the next week, when his arm is needed again. The Twins tried to employ such a pitcher in 2021 when Randy Dobnak broke camp with the club as a long reliever. However, the team struggled to find him regular work, which had two adverse effects—it used a bullpen spot, and Dobnak (who was very much in their plans fresh off his five-year extension) could not continue to develop with the erratic schedule. That is not to say that the team doesn’t send guys out to eat innings occasionally; it simply works differently in the modern game. Instead of retreating to the end of the bench, they typically ride the green line back to St. Paul in favor of a fresh arm. The bullpen seems set in most people’s minds, with some hierarchy featuring Jhoan Durán, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill—each of whom has seen a good deal of Major League work. However, all are considered short relievers to one degree or another. This concentration of short relievers became a point of consternation in 2022, as the bullpen was stretched to cover four to six innings most nights. The team tried not to throw players on back-to-back games either, and you don’t need to be a math major to understand why that’s untenable with an eight-man bullpen. Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli doesn’t want to face that again this year, and a long reliever is a big part of that. “I personally think our best bullpen has, and always has, one option that can give you 50-75 pitches out of the bullpen. I’d like to carry someone like that at all times.”, Rocco said Friday to Twins Daily’s John Bonnes and the other Twins beat writers. “Is that going to be the case? No, we probably won’t be able to do that in all 162. But I think having someone like in the vast majority of our games will be very helpful. I also think we have those guys.” Given that, we may see the likes of Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, or Brent Headrick called up to do something similar. Sands, Winder, Henriquez, and Headrick may be prime candidates, as they seem most likely to be relievers eventually (though Henriquez is also dealing with a sore elbow.). Calling a player up like this is more the exception than the rule when it comes to divvying up innings, though. Although the Twins could roster someone like Dobnak or Sands to be a-low leverage option, it’s debatable whether that will happen practically. I’m interested in speculating on how the Twins might get bulk work from this group—even if that doesn’t mean employing a true fulltime long reliever. I dug through 2022 usage patterns for Twins relievers with more than 15 innings and five relief appearances.Four types of usage profiles emerged in doing this. Short Relief The first is true short relief. Players like Joe Smith, Thielbar, López, and Michael Fulmer rarely threw more than an inning, and none had an appearance of two or more innings. They were also the most likely to be used on back-to-back days, with each over 20% of their appearances on zero days’ rest. Long Relief On the other side of the spectrum were pitchers predominantly used in long relief. There were two of those guys—Sands and Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez threw five relief outings, pitching 5, 3.1, 3, 3, and 1.2 innings. Had he been on the roster all season, he would have been a true long reliever, but he only filled this role in September after rosters were expanded. However, the Twins signed him as a minor league free agent this winter, so he is another option to fill this role at least partially. Multi-Inning Relief Then we get to the guys who were used somewhere in the middle, which is probably the modern version of a long reliever. Some of these guys were green line regulars, like Moran and Jharel Cotton. They threw more than one inning between 25% and 50% of the time, often when ahead by more than four runs or trailing. Although Moran and Cotton were sent down after multi-inning appearances several times, Trevor Megill remained on the roster after his initial call-up in 2022, despite having options remaining and throwing more than an inning 30% of the time. Megill’s usage was a bit all over the place in terms of leverage, and he may present the biggest question mark regarding his role for the 2023 bullpen, assuming he breaks camp with the team. Role Changers Finally, we have a group of pitchers that fluctuated between groups. The most pleasant surprises last year were Durán and Jax. Both players began the season as freshly-converted starters pitching multiple innings in the middle innings, but they transformed into predominantly one-inning guys. Both threw more than an inning about a quarter of the time, but most of those appearances came at the beginning of the year. For example, Jax recorded more than three outs just thrice in the last 100 games of the season. In the opposite direction, Emilio Pagán and Tyler Duffey began the season as single-inning options. They were converted into Cotton-esque innings-eaters by the end of the season due to performance reasons. Pagán, in particular, was an interesting case, as he took on more innings but was also relied on to throw in back-to-back games quite often. If there is one positive trait most can agree on, it’s that Pagán possesses a rubber arm. So What Will We See? At the beginning of the season, at least, the betting money would have to be on Megill, Moran, and Pagán being run out for multi-inning appearances. Suppose Pagán continues his improvements from late in the year (ironically in his new, low-leverage role). In that case, he may be in line for a hybrid role, lower on the bullpen hierarchy, but still trusted in some close games, depending on the rest status of other arms. Many fans are clamoring for Moran to be used as a second lefty rather than a long reliever, and if he develops control, he may be more suited for that role. Similarly, if Megill stops leaving balls middle-middle, he can ride his 100 MPH fastball a long way. Bulk innings may be given to whichever arm is freshest from that group, and if one emerges as a primary or secondary setup man, they may actually lead the bullpen in innings, taking the Griffin Jax path. There may be a rotating cast of waiver claims, semi-prospects, and minor league veterans at the end of the pen, soaking up innings before returning to St. Paul, or being jettisoned into the sun, never to be seen or heard from again. However, between Pagán, Moran, and Megill, the Twins may have a group who can fill multiple innings at a time while also seeing a moderate amount of medium-to-high-leverage innings. View full article

Last season, there was no more polarizing figure in the Minnesota Twins bullpen than that of Emilio Pagan. The reliever was initially brought in as the expected closer, and the only thing he did was slam the door on postseason opportunity. What if it goes better in 2023? Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli was handed a new closer just before Opening Day last season. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took advantage of circumstance to acquire a controllable starting pitching in Chris Paddack. They flipped veteran closer Taylor Rogers as he was coming off of injury and headed to free agency, while also grabbing Emilio Pagan in the process. That’s where the good news ended. Pagan made his Minnesota debut during Game 3 of the opening series against the Seattle Mariners. That was little more than a mop-up appearance as the Twins trailed 10-4. A couple of days later, he came on against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a 1-1 game. After getting through the 7th inning, he walked Mookie Betts to lead off the 8th and was later charged with his first loss. Although the unraveling was on Caleb Thielbar, it was foreshadowing for what would come next. After recording two saves, Pagan blew his first of the season against the Detroit Tigers on April 26. He went almost a month before blowing his second on May 25 against that same Tigers club. That’s where things went bad. Pagan posted nearly a 12.00 ERA during the month of June, and his 5.79 ERA from July 6 through August 21 wasn’t remarkably better. With plenty of games coming against Cleveland, Pagan sank Minnesota’s hopes of staying in front of the Guardians in the standings. So why would we expect anything different? Well, clearly the Twins expect something different. It would have been odd for the club to sit by and watch Pagan blow up on a nightly basis only to cut him loose during the offseason. His price tag through arbitration was by no means exorbitant, and it has always been argued that his stuff was well above average. Trying to find a way where tweaks this offseason could help was a must, and that’s where the club appears to have gone. It’s also not as though Pagan didn’t figure things out down the stretch. Over his final 13 games, a sample of 16 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.16 ERA and 2.99 FIP. His 21 strikeouts were well more than one per nine, although the eight walks in that span still do leave something to be desired. Leading up to his closing stretch, Pagan was throwing a four-seam fastball just under 50% of the time while using his slider roughly 25% of the time. The rest of the repertoire came in the form of a sinker. He was generating a 35% chase rate and strong 14% whiff rate, but also giving up contact 73% of the time. When things turned for Pagan, Minnesota got him to up the fastball usage to nearly 60% while substantially cutting down both the sinker and slider usage in favor of a curveball. It resulted in decreased contact, higher chase percentages, and roughly even whiff rates. The addition of a new pitch is something that the Twins organization had been looking to impart for months, but needed buy-in from a pitcher that had no real rapport with the team outside of the regular season. It’s in that where we can find some solace. Getting buy-in to tweak a player’s arsenal is something that happens through trust. Pagan hasn’t been good since his breakout season with the Tampa Bay Rays, but he has always had the inputs that suggest results should follow. Looking to unlock that is where Minnesota wants to be, and an offseason program in conjunction with Twins staff could help them both to get there. There is little reason the Twins should enter the season with Pagan in high leverage. Both Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez can handle those innings alongside of Griffin Jax. Pagan can insert himself back into the discussion however, and that’s something he’ll need to earn a right to do. On the flip side, his leash should be short and there is nothing about a $3.5 million salary that will keep Minnesota from avoiding the same fate from a year ago. I’m not sure if Pagan has truly found it or not, but being prepared to see if he has is something I don’t think Minnesota fans were ready for when the offseason ended. View full article

FORT MYERS - Emilio Pagan has a plan to bounce back, pitching coach Peter Maki's loves the longer camp and Jorge Polanco says his knee doesn't hurt, but .... Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports We're trying something new for Twins Daily's Caretakers: an audio report from John Bonnes on what he's seeing and hearing from players, coaches, and management inside Hammond Stadium. Today's report includes: News on Jorge Polanco's slow ramp up in spring training, and whether is knee is already a concern Emilio Pagan's offseason, and why his first bullpen session was so encouraging Thoughts from pitching coach Pater Maki on camp and how the Twins are adjusting to the new pitching clock. If you're a Caretaker, click here for your exclusive content! And if you're not, maybe consider becoming a Caaretaker? You likely visit regularly, and that's going to become even more likely as the season gears up. Supporting something you value feels good, especially when it's been here feeding your baseball habit for over 10 years for free, right? We're in spring training reporting because we love this stuff, and we want to share it as much as we can, so you can find lot of free content from Fort Myers other places on the site. But unfortunately, spring training is expensive, and that's especially true this year after Hurricane Ian damaged a lot of the lodging options. Plus, there are lot of other benefits, like a free Winter Meltdown ticket and early access for guest, special callouts on the site, and lots more inside or in-depth content like this. So please consider joining our little club. The money is going to a site you love, to support coverage you love, and writers you value. Thank you so much. Join Here to support Twins Daily and get your exclusive content! View full article

The Minnesota Twins appear to have a formidable back end of the bullpen with Jhoan Duran and Jorge López, but a commonly-asked question remains: What is Emilio Pagán still doing on this team? View full video

Maybe it doesn't need any more help? Image courtesy of © Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey stated last week that, despite widespread speculation, the Twins weren't in the market for adding another relief pitcher in free agency. There are still a few quality names on the market, such as Andrew Chafin and the familiar Michael Fulmer, but for the time being, the Twins seem content rolling with the crew they have now out of the bullpen. Starting at the back end, what is the outlook for potential relievers for the Twins? Closer Jhoan Duran Like last year, I expect Rocco Baldelli to use Duran in a non-traditional closer role. This turned off many fans, but the logic is sound. Stick Duran on the opposing team's best hitters late in the game. The situation could be in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. Duran was as nasty as they came in 2022, mixing top-end velocity (103 mph) with filthy off-speed stuff. After only one season, Duran has proven himself to be one of the best in baseball. On the year, Duran had a 1.86 ERA, 89 punch-outs in 67.2 innings, and produced 2.8 WAR. Duran should continue to hold down the back of the bullpen and be among the most reliable guys to toe the rubber in high-leverage situations. Set-Up Guys Jorge Lopez Lopez came over from Baltimore at the deadline in 2022 and had a disappointing second half of the year in Minnesota. 2022 was Lopez's first year in the bullpen, as he was a failed starter asked to embrace a new role. In this new role, Baltimore had themselves a dominant closer who gave them 19 saves in the first half of the season, striking out 54 hitters in 48.1 innings to the tune of a 1.68 ERA. At the time of the trade, Lopez was considered one of the best closers in baseball. It was a small sample size, but what he did was legit. Lopez is another high-velocity guy who will hit triple digits and overwhelm hitters with his filthy stuff. His problem in Minnesota was; he just walked too many batters. In just 22.2 innings with the Twins, Lopez walked 14 batters. The good news here is that the walks weren't a problem in the first half of the season, so if the Twins can make the proper adjustments to limit the walks, Lopez should be fine. With his talent, he has all the makings of being one of the best set-up men in baseball and form a nightmare 1-2 punch with Duran. Caleb Thielbar Old-reliable himself. Overcoming some early season jitters, Thielbar went on to provide another excellent season for the Twins. The 35-year-old lefty produced a 2.42 FIP on the year, showing his ability to limit walks and home runs. Thielbar will continue to be a staple in the Twins pen, often being asked to take the ball in a spot late in games where the opposing team has a couple of left-handed hitters due up. The years may come and go, but Thielbar's ability to be productive in his role will stay the same. Thielbar will continue to be a solid and reliable arm for Rocco to call on late in games. Griffin Jax Joining Duran and Lopez as starters finding a new role in the bullpen, Jax had an excellent 2022 campaign. Jax was one of the heavier-used pitchers out of the Twins bullpen, throwing 72.1 innings and sometimes asked to eat up multiple innings. Armed with a filthy slider that produced a 36.8% whiff rate, Jax finished the season with a 3.17 FIP and struck out more than a batter per inning. The success of Jax in his new role was one of the highlights of the 2022 season, and he will look to continue his growth there in 2023. Middle Relievers Jovani Moran Jovani Moran was an excellent left-handed bullpen arm in 2022. Moran was so good, and it's possible by the end of 2023, he could be asked to take on more high-leverage situations. In 2022, Moran had a 1.78 FIP and struck out 54 in 40.2 innings. At the moment, Moran is a solid left-handed middle-relief option with a ton of upside. Trevor Megill On the surface, Megill's numbers could have been more inspiring in 2022. However, there was a sizeable discrepancy between Megill's ERA (4.80) and his FIP (3.29), meaning he was a little unlucky in 2022 and is a good candidate for some positive regression in 2023. The massive Megill won't be the Twins' most reliable reliever, but he has a chance to be a solid option to eat innings in the middle of games. Emilio Pagan Sit down, take deep breaths, and relax. What I suggest next may trigger you. The Twins were absolutely right to give Pagan another shot. At the start of 2022, Pagan was the Twins' closer, which is crazy when you think about it. In those high-leverage situations, Pagan imploded. As the year progressed, Pagan slid further down the pecking order. Eventually, he found his footing and put on an excellent second half of the season. Most of his late-season work went unnoticed, as his reputation was already tarnished. In a middle relief role, Pagan has the potential to be a valuable asset to the Minnesota Twins. Pagan was, at one time, one of the best closers in the game. At 32 years old, if he can continue to fine-tune his splitter and limit the long ball, there's no reason he can't be worth the second chance. Jorge Alcala Alcala is a true wildcard. Thought to be the favorite to take over the closer job after the Twins dealt Taylor Rogers for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan last spring, Alcala suffered a season-ending elbow injury after appearing in just two games. Alcala is young and very talented. If he can return to pre-injury form, he may see more high-leverage situations. There's also the chance that Alcala losses a step and struggles. When he returns, Twins fans will have to wait to see where Alcala is. This bullpen has loads of talent and plenty of reliable arms. If guys like Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan can sure a couple of things up, which I think they will, and Jorge Alcala returns to be the fireballer he was before his surgery, this bullpen has some real potential to be a top 10 bullpen in the MLB. What are your thoughts? Should the Twins add another arm, or is the bullpen ready to roll? Let me know! View full article

Relief pitchers have a quantitatively small job – pitch one or two innings a couple times per week – but they have an outsized impact on a team's fortunes, as we've seen. Is the front office playing with fire in its passive approach to the bullpen this offseason? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The impact of the bullpen on a team's fate can often be overstated by fans, which is understandable. Not to get into specifics, but ... a certain reliever melting down several times in close games against a division rival lingers in memory more starkly than, say, the offense that couldn't build a sufficient lead, or the starter who couldn't go deep enough to prevent that scenario. Many fans will tell you the bullpen was the primary downfall of the 2022 Twins. Is that true? Not really. Their bullpen ranked 20th among MLB teams in fWAR, 16th in ERA, 14th in FIP, compared to a rotation that ranked 21st, 20th, and 18th respectively. The offense, which was supposed to be the engine driving a competitive team, ranked 17th in the majors in runs scored. Notably, the Twins bullpen ranked 29th in fWAR in the first half last year, but improved to FOURTH in the second half, once they'd parted ways with the likes of Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith. They weren't just improved in the latter portion of the campaign, after ironing out an uninspiring opening group – they were elite. All of which is to say they're not working from as lousy of an existing base as many seem to perceive or assume. The front office's decision to bypass any significant offseason RP additions – which now seems all but affirmed, with Michael Fulmer and Andrew Chafin both coming off the market in the past few days – is justifiable on merit. That said, failing to properly build a deep and resilient bullpen can be a costly misstep that fans won't be eager to forgive. Even if it's sometimes exaggerated, there's no question that the bullpen plays a vital role in any team's success, and is often a key differentiator between the good and the great. Is this group up to snuff? The team is placing it's chips on a series of outcomes shaking out mostly the right way, in order to fulfill the vision of a bullpen suited to a World Series contender: The Twins are betting on Jhoan Durán holding up. He's one of the best relievers in baseball, so Durán would serve as a linchpin in almost any bullpen makeup. But the Twins are set to once again lean hard on him for the late innings, because there is so much uncertainty surrounding him (as we'll discuss). The big right-hander was remarkably healthy and durable last year, but he was limited to 16 total innings in 2021 by an elbow strain. He throws about as hard as any pitcher in history, so the injury concerns are self-evident and unignorable. The Twins can't do much about that other than manage and protect his arm to their best ability, but if they wanted some peace of mind, they might've shelled out or traded for a big-name reliever to serve as co-ace of the bullpen. The Rafael Montero to their Ryan Pressly, if you will. Alas, it's possible – maybe even probable – that the front office feels it already accomplished this at the deadline last year: The Twins are betting on Jorge López getting back on track. If López and Durán are both pitching at a level approximating their work in the first half last year, they provide Minnesota with one of the most dominant 1-2 punches at the back end of any bullpen. This no doubt played a major role in the front office's strategy during a 2022 deadline that seemed as much oriented toward strengthening the '23 club as boosting their chances for the stretch run. The plan can still work, and the Twins are counting on it. López's results dropped off big-time after the trade last year, but it was only 23 innings and the stuff was still there. If his drop-off didn't coincide directly with switching teams, it probably would've been less noticeable, and we'd have been more inclined to judge his overall body of work – 71 IP, 2.54 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 4 HR allowed – as a tremendously encouraging first go as a full-time reliever. Merely replicating that overall level of performance for the full season would make López a worthy setup man or closer. But if getting comfortable while making adjustments brings him back closer to the level of his All-Star first half, the Twins have two powerhouses lurking at the back of the bullpen. They'll be the envy of almost every team in the league. The Twins are betting on Emilio Pagán proving doubters wrong. The doubters are many, and they have ample evidence to support their stance. Pagán authored from the mound some of this team's lowest moments in 2022. His propensity for hanging meatballs that got launched 450 feet at dire moments was legendary ... and it's a rep that's now been following him around for a while. And yet. The Twins believe in the quality of his stuff and they are not alone. Perhaps they feel it started to shine through in the second half and down the stretch, with help from a new breaking ball swapped in for the cutter. After posting a 5.23 ERA in the first half, Pagán lowered that figure to 3.56 in the second half – including 2.16 ERA in his final 16 ⅔ innings, during which he held opponents to a .170/.279/.288 with only one home run allowed. The overpowering arsenal is undeniable, and in the latter stage of the season – under tutelage from a rearranged coaching staff featuring Pete Maki and Colby Suggs – Pagán finally started to unlock it. Or so the Twins are betting. The Twins are betting on unproven middle relief options coming through. Griffin Jax looked very good last year in his transition to relief, but posted a 6.37 ERA the prior season as a rookie. Caleb Thielbar was phenomenal following a rocky start, but he's 36 and was out of pro baseball a few years ago. Jorge Alcalá undoubtedly has the stuff to dominate righties, but missed nearly all of last season with an elbow injury. Add in the likes of Trevor Megill and Jovani Moran, and you've got a great deal of high-end potential within the middle tier of his bullpen mix – including some very viable setup candidates – but also substantial question marks relating to age, injury, track record, or otherwise. The argument for adding another veteran reliever is that you can mitigate some of this uncertainty with more of a proven commodity. The argument against it is that you might be limiting well-earned opportunities for some of the guys lower on the list. Moran for example posted a 2.21 ERA while averaging 12.0 K/9 and allowing zero homers in 41 innings for the Twins last year, and he's about to turn 26. Does he really deserve to be buried back in Triple-A with another vet of questionable superiority stacked above him on the depth chart? The Twins are betting on manufacturing relief arms over the course of the season. Even if the Twins are mostly right about the pitchers mentioned above, they'll need to rely on an influx of talent throughout the course of the season, because that's always the case. The underlying premise seems to be one guiding this front office philosophically from a bullpen standpoint: we can find them. Maybe that means extracting good performances out of minor-league signings and waiver claims, such as Danny Coulombe and Oliver Ortega. They've been okay at that, on the fringes. But really, it comes down to identifying pitchers from a wide-ranging pool of flawed starters who can elevate into true relief weapons. We saw this last year with Durán and Jax, and I suspect the Twins feel they're only scratching the surface. Keep a close eye on names like Josh Winder, Ronny Henriquez, Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, and Brent Headrick as candidates to shift to relief and make a major big-league impact. This philosophy that basically boils down to, "Capable relievers are everywhere, but volatile, why pay a premium?" is not exactly unique to the Twins, but it's one they're embracing with all their might. And it might ultimately play a huge role in defining their success this season. Let's hope they're right on that bet, and the others inherent to a status quo offseason for the Minnesota bullpen. View full article

2022 wasn’t just bad for former top pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic, it was disastrous. Now that he’s on the 40 man roster with minimal minor league success above Double-A on his resume, is it time for a change in plans? Image courtesy of Theo Tollefson, Twins Daily Jordan Balazovic was seen as the crown jewel pitching prospect in the Twins system for a few years prior to 2022. Even as a fifth round pick out of Canada in 2016, Balazovic became a big name quickly, as his 6’5 frame filled out quickly and velocity soon followed. He dominated his way up to Double-A in 2019 before the 2020 shutdown interrupted what looked to be an ascension to one of the Twins best starting pitching prospects in some time. 2021 was a mixed bag as Balazovic threw 97 innings in Double-A with a mid-3s ERA. The strikeouts came down and walks came up a bit, but he still flashed the upside the Twins knew was there. While not the dominant pitcher he had shown he could be, 2021 never could have foreshadowed what we saw in 2022. Balazovic began the season a bit behind due to a knee issue. Still, the Twins had decided they’d seen enough in Double-A to bump him up to Triple-A, setting the stage for a potential call up later in 2022. Unfortunately, these plans did not come to fruition, as Balazovic wound up throwing around 70 innings and posting a panic-inducing 7.39 ERA. He was often chased from outings in the second or third inning, allowing a 2.55 HR/9 that would make Emilio Pagan blush. There were rumblings of the knee issue continuing to limit the right hander, but the 2022 season was enough for Balazovic to lose all national prospect status. Once bordering on Top 100 prospect lists as an up-and-coming mid-to-high end starting pitcher, Balazovic’s future is suddenly a massive question mark. The question of course, is how the Twins view him. At 24 years old, the Twins don’t have to rush to make a decision with Balazovic. Plenty of pitchers such as Josh Winder and Bailey Ober debuted at older ages. The issue, however, becomes the fact that Balazovic had to be added to the 40-man roster. If The Twins want to regain trust in him as a starter in 2023, it will likely take a sizable body of work for them to feel comfortable calling him up given what they saw last year. It also runs the risk of him either continuing to struggle or just putting up middle of the road numbers that don’t push the issue at all. Given how often the Twins churn over the fringes of the 40-man roster, it’s hard to stash Balazovic away in Triple-A as a starter if they’ve lost any faith in him. It’s possible they take another route instead. Balazovic’s stuff remains intact by all accounts. His massive frame allows him to throw mid-90s out of the rotation, and he has multiple secondary pitches that grade out well. It’s entirely possible that a move to shorter stints out of the bullpen allow him to approach triple digits, and he could greatly reduce the usage on his lowest-graded pitch being the changeup. He should have the raw stuff to put any command struggles behind him and simply overpower opposing hitters. This would also put him on an expedited track to the Major Leagues. Nobody ever wants to see a top prospect make the switch to the bullpen, but it’s a quite common outcome. Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Jhoan Duran, all former starters that made a shift for struggles of some kind and found massive success in the MLB. We’ve seen Griffin Jax, a low 90s fringe starting pitching prospect transition into a high leverage reliever who sits above 95 mph. Sometimes a move to the bullpen is exactly what a pitcher needs to reach their potential. It’s likely at this point that Balazovic opens 2023 as a starting pitcher in Triple-A once more, which is completely fair. Much like the 2022 Twins, it may be wise not to make any rash decisions when injury accounted for so much of the struggles. Still, it’s likely that Balazovic’s status as a future starting pitcher is on thin ice. Prospects get hurt and struggle every year, but Balazovic’s 2022 was so bad that it’s fair to wonder whether it’s possible for him to come all the way back. The Twins should have a backup plan on standby for Balazovic in 2023 should his struggles continue early in the year. He has the talent to make a real impact on the Major League team and if his odds of that impact coming in the rotation continue to wane, the Twins need to be ready to pivot. Jordan Balazovic could easily become the next Jhoan Duran starter turned reliever to make an impact on the Twins roster. It’s not what fans have hoped for all of these years, but it’s far from a bad outcome. View full article

Today was the deadline for the Minnesota Twins to sign arbitration-eligible players to contracts for the upcoming 2023 Major League Baseball season. Should the sides not be able to reach a resolution after exchanging official numbers, they would then be subject to an arbitration hearing at a later date. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Most times teams find themselves working to find common ground with arbitration-eligible players. When a player reaches arbitration, their salary is determined through a statistically-weighted process that incrementally pushes their value up alongside peers of similar production. This year, the Twins offered arbitration to eight players. That number was larger, but some players were non-tendered and the Twins traded Gio Urshela. In acquiring Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota added an additional player they needed to negotiate with. None of the players that Minnesota needed to come to agreements with looked like there would be much gray area. Certainly, a few were extension candidates (and still could be). Going through them individually, you can see what the Twins ultimately signed them for, and what MLB Trade Rumors (in parentheses) projected them at going into the offseason. Tyler Mahle $7.5M ($7.2M) Source Acquired from the Reds last year at the trade deadline for Spencer Steer, Steven Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Mahle could have been an extension candidate. He is entering the final year of team control and the Twins see him with substantial upside. Those talks can still take place. Kyle Farmer $5.585M ($5.9M) Source After dealing Urshela to the Angels, Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds for Casey Legumina. He may have been the Opening Day shortstop had Carlos Correa not be re-signed. Now he is likely to get playing time at all four infield positions as well as providing the team with an emergency catcher. Luis Arraez ($5M) - Numbers Exchanged Source The Twins filed more than one million lower than Arraez. He has continually been involved in trade talks and there is some time for the two sides to come to an agreement, or potentially reach an extension. Emilio Pagan $3.5M ($3.7M) Source There is no denying 2022 was a tumultuous season for Pagan. Brought in to close games as Taylor Rogers' replacement, he cost Minnesota plenty and was knocked down to low-leverage situations. He remained on the roster all year largely due to his stuff, and down the stretch he made changes that had him looking like a potential asset again. It will take a significant trust factor for fans to believe in him again, but cutting bait this offseason would have looked odd. Jorge Lopez $3.525M ($3.7M) Source Acquired from the Orioles at the deadline for Yennier Cano, Cade Povich, Juan Nunez, and Juan Rojas, the Twins went after Baltimore’s All-Star closer. He struggled in Minnesota but tweaks back to his former repertoire could bode well for a return to high-leverage. Lopez has another year of arbitration eligibility for 2024 as well. Caleb Thielbar $2.4M ($2.4M) Source A late bloomer that has been nothing but incredible as a pen lefty for Minnesota, Thielbar was always a lock to be retained. Like Lopez, he has another year of arbitration eligibility as well. Chris Paddack $2.4M ($2.4M) Source Another potential extension candidate, Paddack was the prize of the trade that sent Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres. His injury history was known, and he’s now recovering from Tommy John surgery. He will be back at some point this year, but a Michael Pineda type deal could still make sense. Jorge Alcala $790K ($800K) Source Limited due to injury last season, the hope is that Alcala will factor in as a high-leverage arm for Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen. With the deals cemented today, the Twins payroll for 2023 has crossed the $140 million threshold and could be continued to rise. They came in roughly at $150 million a season ago, and there is no way Correa wanted to join a team that wouldn’t push the envelope. There is still work to be done with this roster, and adding an additional pitcher and an outfielder remain key needs. Derek Falvey has noted that Minnesota will remain engaged up to and beyond the time they embark on Fort Myers, and as we have seen in recent seasons, there is no reason to believe they are done until Opening Day hits. View full article

With many top free agents off the market, trading players is the best way for the Twins to impact the 2023 roster. Here are the team's most likely trade chips before the season begins. Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel, USA Today Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done this before to Twins fans. Their offseason mantra is to show patience before making multiple moves closer to the start of spring training. Last year, the lockout impacted the organization's ability to make moves, but the Twins traded for Sonny Gray and signed Carlos Correa in March. Few top free-agent targets remain available, so the Twins need to make trades to supplement the roster. Here are five players the Twins are most likely to trade in the coming weeks. 5. <Insert Utility Infielder Name> Correa's signing to a long-term deal means the Twins can afford to move one of their infielders. The Twins traded for Kyle Farmer to add to the shortstop depth chart, but he is now expendable with Correa in the fold. Nick Gordon is out of minor league options, so the Twins might not see a place for him on the 2023 roster. Neither player would warrant a large return, but the club doesn't need both of them on the Opening Day roster. 4. <Insert Corner Outfielder Not Named Max Kepler> One corner outfielder is the team's most likely trade chip (see below), but the Twins also have plenty of other options at these positions. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner are of similar ages and fit a similar skill set. Larnach and Kirilloff suffered injuries during the 2022 season, which may give Wallner the highest trade value. Teams have also inquired about Gilberto Celestino , but the Twins might need him to be Byron Buxton's insurance. 3. Luis Arraez , Utility Arraez's name has been tied to trade rumors this winter for various reasons. He's coming off a year where he won the AL Batting Title, and Twins Daily named him the team MVP. His trade value may never be higher based on his 2022 performance. Arraez has dealt with injuries in the past, and the Twins may look to capitalize on trading him for controllable starting pitching. Multiple members of the starting rotation have one year of team control remaining. Reports have Miami open to trading multiple pieces from their starting rotation, so that is a possible landing spot for Arraez. 2. Sonny Gray, SP It may seem counterproductive for the Twins to trade their best-starting pitcher if the club wants to contend in 2023. However, Gray is entering his final year of team control, and the Twins might not be interested in signing him to a long-term deal. Other members of the starting staff are returning from injury, so it seems more likely for Gray to be traded over Kenta Maeda or Tyler Mahle . If Gray isn't part of the team's long-term plans, this winter might be the best opportunity to maximize his trade value before he hits free agency. 1. Max Kepler, RF The writing was on the wall when the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a one-year deal; Minnesota will trade Max Kepler . Minnesota has multiple left-handed hitting corner outfield options, and the Twins have two years of team control over Kepler. Offensively, Kepler has failed to replicate his breakout performance from 2019, but he continues to be an elite defensive outfielder. The Twins should be able to get something of value in return for Kepler; surprisingly, he is still on the roster. Who else should be included in the rankings? Will Kepler be the only player traded? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Happy New Year's Eve, Twins Fans!! Take one more look back at the 2022 Twins according to their most-viewed articles. this one just might have you laughing at crying. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports Before we get started with the fourth and final installment, we just want to say Thank You to our readers, our followers, those who participate in the forums, our terrific, talented writers and bloggers, those who provide videos, and just everyone who has helped 2022 become such an exciting year at our site. #5 Minnesota’s 3 Options with Carlos Correa July 23 Cody Christie It was obviously a big deal when the Twins signed Carlos Correa, and as you can tell from our Top 20 most-viewed article rankings, at times you may think that we are ABC, All ‘Bout Correa. While that isn’t completely true, Correa has certainly found himself key in many articles throughout the course of the year. This article was a little over a week from the trade deadline. The Twins were still in first place, but the injuries were catching up, especially in the pitching staff, but throughout the roster. Cody wrote about three options for the Twins at the deadline. They could keep him and make that push toward the division title. They could try to lock him up before the deadline, though Correa was always going to become a free agent again. They could trade him and receive something in return for his services over the season’s final two months. Wisely, the Twins' front office decided to be buyers at the deadline. They made significant trades, adding to their starting staff, adding an All-Star reliever and a #2 catcher. Obviously, it didn’t pay off as two of the three ended the season on the Injured List and the other regressed to the mean with the Twins. #4 Twins Fans Absolutely Furious at Surprise First-Place Start May 20 RandBalls Stu This is RandBalls Stu at his finest. It was approaching two months into the season. The Twins, who finished in last place in the AL Central in 2021, were playing well and found themselves with a nice lead in the division. However, a quick glimpse through #TwinsTwitter and many Twins-related forums found fans upset about all kinds of things. Correa was a bust. How can you send Royce Lewis back to St. Paul? The Twins front office only cares about their algorithms and spreadsheets. You know, it’s some of the silliness you may read here from time to time too. And RandBalls Stu captured it perfectly. #3 3 Reasons Target Field Attendance Continues to be Sparse May 26 Cody Christie Another topic that brought about much conversation and disagreement was Target Field attendance. Why were the Twins struggling to bring fans to the ballpark? Obviously in Minnesota, weather can be a huge factor in attendance, especially with how cold temperatures can get in April after the sun goes down. Obviously, after there were no fans in 2020 and limited fans at some stadiums in 2021, 2022 was the return to semi-normalcy. There are several reasons listed, and you may have your own. For me, the fact that such a high percentage of people simply can’t watch the Twins on TV is major. How do you gain interest in a product? Well, I’m not a marketer, but making it difficult for many people to watch easily is not a good strategy. Unfortunately, Bally’s Sports is mostly only available on cable and not included on many streaming services. What are other reasons for the Twins' struggle with attendance, and what might your suggestions be? #2 Byron Buxton Did the Twins a Favor December 12 Ted Schwerzler You just never know sometimes. I’ve written thousands of Twins blogs and articles over the past 20 years (Maybe 2003 was the start of SethSpeaks dot net). In the past couple of years, I’ve read, edited, and scheduled hundreds if not thousands of Twins articles. You just never know which ones will click, or resonate, and get page clicks. With the free agent prices skyrocketing this offseason, Ted notes that the Twins are very fortunate to have locked up Byron Buxton a year ago. And as we suspected at the time, the Twins got him for an incredible deal. Had he been a free agent this offseason, he would be looking at a Swanson contract, if not a Bogaerts-like deal. #1 Dozens Injured as Twins Bullpen Attempts to Prepare Salad July 8 RandBalls Stu Yes, RandBalls Stu has two articles in the Top 5 most-viewed Twins Daily articles of 2022. And this article came in #1. The article that came in at #4 was fantastic, but there’s no question, this was the best of the year. “Sources say the bullpen was assigned chips and ice, but when reliever Emilio Pagan got lost on his way to Kowalski’s and drove to Fort Smith, Arkansas instead, they improvised a pasta salad. That’s when the trouble began.” And hilarity ensued. What a fun, creative article from such a talented Minnesota writer With that, we wish you all a very happy and safe New Year, rich with fortune and maybe even a little prosperity. Thank you so much for stopping by the site frequently, commenting, and helping other Twins fans to check out our site Previous Articles: Part 1: 16-20 Part 2: 11-15 Part 3: 6-10 View full article

The 2022 Twins season was filled with ups and downs, but there were plenty of stories (good or bad). Today we continue by jumping into the top 10 articles at Twins Daily by page views. Which articles generated the interest of Twins fans? Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports Today, we jump into the Top 20 articles at Twins Daily in 2022. We appreciate all of our readers and those who comment as well. So it's fun to look back at which articles received the most page views over the course of the year. It's also kind of a fun way to look back at some of the biggest stories of the past year. As you take a look through these top articles, think about which Twins-related stories you might say are the top 10 stories of 2022 for you. Maybe it was the Correa signing. Maybe it has been the Correa offseason saga. Maybe it was the trade deadline, or the drafting of Brooks Lee. Maybe it was the debut of Royce Lewis, or the debuts of hometown kids Louie Varland and Matt Wallner. Through the Wins and Losses, the ups and downs, it certainly hasn't been boring to be a Twins fan in 2022, even with the limited signings this offseason... so far. But who knows? Maybe some of the most-read articles at Twins daily in 2023 will be transactions made over the next month or so. Enjoy looking back at the #6-10 articles at Twins Daily in 2023. #10 Why is the MLB Increasing the Size of Its Bases? March 13 Melissa Berman Following the lockout, we kept hearing about various rules that would be coming to he big leagues starting in 2023. Melissa Berman, who had just joined us as a regular contributor, did a fantastic job of breaking down each of the coming changes, why they might be making the change, and what it might mean to teams. Her article on the increasing base sizes took off and became one of our top ten articles this year. Besides just encouraging more of the running game in baseball, it may also help players remain healthy because of a bigger first base. #9 ;Latest Twins Carlos Correa Rumors Free Agency December 10 Nick Nelson Ever since the Twins signed Carlos Correa in spring training, we knew he would opt-out and become a free agent. I’m not sure at any point did we think that the Twins would offer him a 10-year, $285 million contract. Days before Correa agreed to a 13-year, $350 million, Nick wrote up an article on the various rumors surrounding Correa. The Twins and the Giants weren’t the only teams. The Cubs were rumored to have interest. This was when there were reports saying that the Yankees had interest. It was soon after this point that the Mets showed some interest. As we know now, the Giants backed out after concerns about Correa’s physical. Hours later, news broke that Correa agreed to sign with the Mets for 12 years and $315 million. The roller coaster offseason for Correa continued as the Mets didn’t like his medicals either. So, the saga continues. #8 The Weirdest Move Minnesota Could Make October 7 Ted Schwerzler On Opening Day, the Twins sent Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres in exchange for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Rogers started out well for the Padres but after losing the closer job, he was traded to the Brewers. Rooker played in just a couple of games for San Diego before he was traded to the Royals. Chris Paddack made just a handful of starts before he needed his second Tommy John surgery. Pagan stayed healthy, but he really struggled. Pagan has always given up a ton of home runs, but he gave up an even higher percentage in 2022. He continued to get high-leverage opportunities and put up some terrible Win Probability Added numbers. However, we keep hearing, and anyone who watches can see it, that he has some very good stuff. His fastball sits 95-97 mph. He’s got a decent slider. He has typically shown good control. One of the frustrating things about the offseason for many Twins fans came when the Twins tendered a 2023 contract to Pagan. But as Ted wrote in this article, it would have been ‘weird’ had they not done so. Of course, I think that most believe that the Twins will attempt to trade Pagan during the offseason. We shall see. #7 Pitching Coach Wes Johnson to Abruptly Leave Twins June 26 John Bonnes It was a big surprise to people around baseball when the Twins hired Wes Johnson as their pitching coach before the 2019 season. Few knew who he was, but a quick search tells us that he had a lot of success at various colleges in building pitching staffs. Johnson did a nice job with the Twins, so it was quite a surprise when it was announced that Johnson was heading to LSU during the middle of the season. Johnson is responsible (along with Derek Falvey and others) for the current Twins pitching programs and philosophies throughout the organization. They have continued to spend on technology and analytics, coaches and coordinators, and we have seen those processes working through the likes of Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder, Cole Sands and others who made their debuts in 2022. However, in late June, news broke that Johnson was leaving the Twins to become the pitching coach for LSU where he would make significantly more money. Obviously at a college powerhouse like that, they wanted him to join them quickly, so Johnson had to make a quick decision. He took the job and remained with the team through the big series in Cleveland that was arguably the turning point of the season. Pete Maki took over as the team’s pitching coach. He had been an assistant and worked out in the bullpen. In reality, the change was fairly seamless in that the Twins hire Maki to be the Minor League Pitching Coordinator after he had coached at Duke. He was right there with Falvey and Johnson in determining the organization’s pitching philosophy. #6 Carlos Correa Contract: Giants Postponed Medical Concerns December 20 Nick Nelson As I mentioned in the previous installments of this series, December was a good month for Twins Daily. We would like to thank Carlos Correa for a bit of that success. The rollercoaster offseason of Correa has kept Twins fans intrigued and coming back to read updates but also to converse or share their frustration with other fans. This update from Nick came after the Giants had backed out on their contract with Correa and Scott Boras, but before the news that he wanted to sign with the Mets. What a mess! Check back soon for the Top 5 most-read articles at Twins Daily in 2022. Previous Articles: Part 1: 16-20 Part 2: 11-15 Part 3: 6-10 Part 4: 1-5 (Coming Soon!) View full article

Last week, former Twins closer Taylor Rogers reached agreement with the San Francisco Giants. The size and length of the reliever's new deal came as a shock, offering insight about what the Twins can expect should they venture into the relief market to spend their remaining dollars. Image courtesy of Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports The Giants and Taylor Rogers reportedly agreed last Friday to a three-year deal worth $33 million. This kind of contract wouldn't have been to surprising had it been signed, say, mid-way through the 2021 season, during which Rogers was an All-Star for the Twins. But he missed the last two months of that season with a finger injury, and then struggled his way through 2022 for two different teams, posting a 4.35 ERA for the Padres and then 5.48 down the stretch in Milwaukee. His underlying metrics were not bad – we'll get to that shortly – and Rogers had a very strong prior track record. Also, we know the Giants had money to burn after whiffing on both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. Still... Thirty-three million dollars?! For a guy who had all the looks of a buy-low candidate fishing for a make-good deal? In this economy?!? Even in a clearly inflated free agent market, I find this deal stunning and fascinating. Even if Rogers wasn't a top target for the Twins – sure seems that way – there are some implications worth exploring in terms of what this means for a potential pursuit of remaining free agent relievers. First: The cost for free agent relief pitching is astronomical. We already knew this long before Rogers signed. Edwin Diaz struck the biggest payday for a relief pitcher in history. Roberto Suarez ($46M) and Rafael Montero ($34.5M) received contracts that are pretty much unprecedented for non-closers. This contract for Rogers is merely another piece of supporting evidence to confirm what we already knew: in order to acquire impact relief pitching in free agency, the Twins will need to move well past their comfort zone. To contextualize, the $33 million deal Rogers got coming off a bad year is twice the size of the largest contract the Twins have ever given a free agent reliever (2 years, $16.75 million for Addison Reed). At the time, Reed was an elite late-inning arm, coming off a great season and three years younger than Rogers is now. Further context: if the Twins signed Rogers to the same deal he got from San Francisco, it would rank as the third-largest sum handed to a free agent in seven years under this front office (sixth-largest in franchise history). That distinction currently belongs to Christian Vazquez and his $30 million contract signed earlier this offseason. And to reiterate, Rogers was NOT GOOD this past season. At no point was he a reliable late-inning fixture resembling his prime years in Minnesota. The lefty was bad enough in San Diego that the championship-obsessed Padres traded for an upgrade in Josh Hader at the deadline (didn't quite work out). After getting traded to Milwaukee, Rogers posted a negative-1.02 Win Probability Added for a Brewers team that missed the postseason by ... one game. Rogers was not only bad, but very consequentially bad, which is the same statement you can make about the guy Minnesota traded him for: Emilio Pagan. Would anyone have been excited about the Twins signing Rogers on these terms, even though it ostensibly meets the need to spend money and show initiative? Actually, invoking Pagan brings me to the other big revelation from examining Rogers' new deal with the Giants: Teams are paying for indicators over results. I should clarify that when I say Rogers was bad last year, I mean his results were bad, not necessarily his underlying indicators of performance. Some would say that's a distinction without a difference, but to the Giants and whoever helped run up the bidding on Rogers, clearly it's not. On the surface, the narrative seems clear: Rogers was plagued by a serious finger issue in 2021. The Twins traded him just ahead of the 2022 season, at least in part because they were concerned about lingering effects from that injury on an extremely slider-reliant pitcher. They were right. Rogers scuffled through the worst season of his career. And now the Giants, who just backed out of a mega-deal with Correa because of an eight-year-old ankle injury, are paying $33 million to inherit all of this risk and apparent decline. But when you take a deeper look, this version of events doesn't quite hold up. If Rogers' finger was truly affecting him, you'd expect to see tangible signs of it: diminishing velocity, reduced spin rate, wayward control. None of that was really the case. Rogers' 2.7 BB/9 rate was a bit high by his standards, but hardly terrible. His K/9 rate (11.8) and K% (30.7%) were both above his career benchmarks. His home run rate was typical (about one per nine innings). There were no signs of trouble gripping and executing a featured slider that produced a .191 batting average and 38% whiff rate, while leaned on to a higher degree than ever before. The Giants paid Rogers based on these qualities, not the ugly ERA or the season-altering breakdowns on the mound. Which is an interesting dynamic when you think about Pagan and the Twins. Many of the same things we're saying here about Rogers can be applied to Pagan, whose contract tender from Minnesota in November raised a lot of ire from the fan base. The case for Pagan outperforming his peripherals isn't quite as compelling – he had a 4.21 FIP compared to 3.31 for Rogers – but in both cases, the stuff is undeniable and there's big upside beyond what we see on the stats page. After seeing Rogers get $33 million from San Francisco, it becomes a bit easier to grasp the idea that Minnesota had several trade suitors lining up for Pagan, and that his projected $3.7 million contract could be viewed as somewhat of a bargain. Of course, it's unlikely this will change anyone's opinion on Pagan. And bringing him back will certainly not stand on its own as a satisfactory approach to reinforcing the Twins bullpen, in anyone's eyes. Luckily, there are still quite a few interesting arms out there on the free agent relief market, which has developed more slowly than starters and hitters. Assuming the Twins miss out on Correa again, and don't sign Nathan Eovaldi, there are few other obvious places to focus their remaining budget and make an impact. Building a bullpen that is ultra-deep on quality options, to offset question marks in the rotation and protect against key reliever injuries or setbacks, would seem to be one of the few remaining paths for an offseason that legitimately positions the Twins as assertive contenders. Read More: Looking Toward the Bullpen Market by Cody Pirkl There's already a very solid foundation in place, so the addition of an arm or two like – say – Matt Moore or Andrew Chafin or even our old friend Michael Fulmer could have outsized benefit. But as the Rogers contract illustrates, none of these guys will be coming at a bargain and whichever route they go, the Twins will likely have to overpay on faith. Something this front office doesn't tend to do. Yet, something's gotta give if the Twins want to demonstrate to their fans that they give a dang about making a push in 2023. Thus far their moves have felt more obligatory (Vazquez, Kyle Farmer) or confusing and lateral (Pagan, Joey Gallo) than strategic. The relief market offers opportunities for more purposeful, decisive upgrades ... if Minnesota's willing to meet the price. View full article