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The Minnesota Twins decided to forego an opportunity to upgrade their starting rotation this offseason. Michael Pineda returns from injury, and Kyle Gibson has rounded out into an above average hurler. The greatest development from the holdovers would be Jose Berrios taking another step forwards. An All Star in 2018, the Puerto Rican was recently tabbed as a dark horse for the AL Cy Young. MLB.com’s Matt Kelly named the young Twins starter as one of six sleeper candidates for the 2019 AL Cy Young award last week. Coming off a season in which he posted a 3.84 ERA along with a 1.144 WHIP and just a 3.90 FIP, that seems like somewhat of a substantial leap. Turning 25 in the middle of this season though, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Berrios’ best days are still ahead of him. If indeed that is the case, the secondary numbers suggest trends flowing in the right direction as well. At his worst, Berrios gave up far too many homers and often did so with men on base. Having honed in command year-over-year, he’s also drastically improved his ability to keep the ball in the park. In 2018 the 9.5 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 were both career bests, and while the 1.2 HR/9 was a step backwards from the 0.9 HR/9 tally in 2017, it was a far cry from the ugly 1.9 HR/9 in his debut season. The ratios are all getting to a pretty solid place, but the percentages are what truly will help him to turn the corner. Utilizing a devastating curveball, Berrios generated a career best 11.2% swinging strike rate, reaching double-digits for the first time in his career. He also produced a career best 32.8% chase rate and allowed contact just 76.2% of the time (you guessed it, another career best). To thwart walks, he pounded the zone with a 5% jump on first pitch strikes (64.5%) and he looks to be comfortable with a pitch mix that he replicated from 2017. Something in between where Jose has been each of the past two seasons is likely the crossroads of optimal production. Hard hit rates were better in 2017, and he allowed just 9% of fly balls to leave the yard two years ago. Loud contact isn’t going to help a guy who will always battle against the plane of his fastball, but pitch tunneling, and sequencing can help to make the curveball an even more difficult offering to deal with. Steamer projections look at 2019 as somewhat of a hiccup for the Twins blossoming ace. Marking him with a 4.26 ERA and just a 2.6 fWAR, he’d be taking a noticeable step backwards from the production that we saw in 2018. As a guy who routinely racked up strikeouts on the farm and turned in a 2.51 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and just 0.6 BB/9 in his final lengthy stay at Triple-A, there’s reason to believe the ability is there. The blueprint going forward for Berrios remains similar to what it always has been. He’s a guy who works inside (as noted by his hit by pitch marks) and has struggled when giving up free passes or big innings. Although Minnesota has not done much in the form of additional high-level talent on the field this winter, the additions to the organization from a coach and development standpoint have been impressive. Wes Johnson is noted as a pitching savant, and both Jeremy Heffner and Josh Kalk will have a greater impact with another year of continuity. That foundation could prove to be what helps more than a handful of players take the next step. I don’t know if I’m ready to get on board with Berrios winning a Cy Young just yet, but 2019 could certainly provide a strong foundation as the point looked backed upon that everything just clicked. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Phil Hughes had to know his leash was short in the Twins rotation. Minnesota’s Triple-A rotation is full of plenty of major league-ready arms. During his last spring training start, Hughes left the game with an oblique injury that seemed very convenient for the Twins front office. Since his return from that injury, Hughes has allowed six earned runs on 10 hits in seven innings of work. With Fernando Romero making his big league debut on Wednesday, Hughes is headed to the bullpen. Is this the beginning of the end for Phil Hughes?Record Breaker Minnesota's original signing of Phil Hughes seemed like a very “Twins-like” move. Over his last three seasons in New York, he started 75 games and posted a 4.82 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. His 68 home runs could be attributed to pitching with the short porch in the Bronx. The Twins were hoping a new ballpark and a new environment could re-create the younger version of Hughes. During the 2014 season, Phil Hughes was a breath of fresh air for the Twins starting rotation. His 3.52 ERA and 209.2 innings pitched looked Cy Young worthy when compared to the likes of Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Correia. He even set the MLB record for strikeout-to-walk ratio in a season. Minnesota was so starved for starting pitching, the club restructured his contract following 2014 to cover the 2015-2019 seasons. If the Twins were going to get the 2014 version of Hughes, his new contract seemed like a good investment. In hindsight, it has been an injury-ridden deal full of frustration for fans and even more frustration for the player. Frustration Hughes pitched 27 games in 2015 with a 4.40 ERA while allowing the most home runs in the American League. His last two seasons have been cut short by injuries. He was limited to just 26 games in 2016-17. The Twins owe Hughes $26.4 million for 2018 and 2019 and he is being demoted to a bullpen role. Last summer, Hughes was asked by the Pioneer Press if his second season-ending surgery in as many summers was a threat to his career. “I try not to think that way,” Hughes said. “It’s been a rough go the last few years. I try not to let my mind wander that way. I try to take it with what I can do now and focus on that. It has been frustrating, even disheartening a little bit, but I try not to think that way.” One has to wonder if Hughes has started to think that way over the last handful of days. When asked about his transition to the bullpen, Hughes is trying to stay positive. “I can only embrace it,” he said. “If I go down there with a positive attitude and help the team win in whatever role I’m given, that’s all I can do. I think it’s a positive thing.” Fastball Falloff Hughes has been a successful bullpen option but that was early in his career with New York. In fact, he was a critical part of the 2009 Yankee team on their way to the World Series title. Since that campaign, he has never made more than five relief appearances. Those five appearances came last season as he fought through his injury. During his career, Hughes has never been noted for his velocity. The decline in his fastball velocity has been a concern in recent years, especially with all of his mounting injuries. He was averaging over 93 miles per hour through the majority of the 2014 campaign. Through his first two appearances in 2018, his fastball velocity has averaged 90.5, which is over two miles per hour slower than his career mark. It remains to be seen if Hughes will be able to regain some magic in a bullpen role. There are plenty of younger arms in the Twins system waiting to get a shot at the big league level. Since he was signed under the previous regime, the current front office shouldn’t feel an allegiance to the rest of the money owed to Hughes. If the bullpen doesn’t work out, the end might be looming for Mr. Hughes. Around Twins Daily Royce Lewis is Finding His Stroke Can Fernando Romero Spark the Twins? Something Has Clicked with Eduardo Escobar Click here to view the article

On Tuesday night, Bartolo Colon will take the mound at Target Field for his first start in a large Minnesota Twins uniform. If you’re like me, one of the first things that you thought about when you heard that the Twins signed the 44-year-old right-hander last week was the 2005 American League Cy Young Award. As you recall, Colon won that award because he went 21-8 for the Angels. He was the only 20-game winner in the league that year. As Twins fans, we thought that Johan Santana was robbed. Yes, Moneyball had already been out for a few years, so we knew that there was much more to illustrating how well a pitcher throws than the almighty pitcher Win.With Colon joining the Twins and making a start tonight, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at that 2005 American League Cy Young vote through the lens of what we now know. Was Johan still robbed? Of course he was robbed, we’re Twins fans. He absolutely deserved to win it. Santana won the AL Cy Young Award in 2004, and then he again won it in 2006. However, we’ll still contend that he should have won three in a row. The Vote I always find it interesting that we think that Johan Santana was robbed. However, we forget that Santana didn’t even finish runner-up in the 2005 American League Cy Young voting. Yankees closer Mariano Rivera finished second in the vote. Bartolo Colon actually won the vote quite handily. He accumulated 118 points. Mariano Rivera had 68 points, and Johan Santana had 51 points. Colon received 17 of a possible 28 first-place votes. Rivera got eight first-place votes with Santana tallying the other three. The Numbers Let’s start with the obvious, the statistics. First and foremost, it is important to acknowledge that all three of these pitchers had tremendous 2005 seasons. I don’t think anyone would or should say anything differently. At the same time, it’s impossible to look at the numbers and not think that Santana was the obvious choice. Here are some key statistics for your consideration: W-L Record: Colon 21-8; Santana 16-7, Rivera 7-4 (with 43 saves)Innings Pitched: Santana 231.2, Colon 222.2, Rivera 78.1ERA: Rivera 1.38, Santana 2.87, Colon 3.48WHIP: Rivera 0.87, Santana 0.97, Colon 1.16.FIP: Rivera 2.15, Santana 2.80, Colon 3.75K/9: Santana 9.2, Rivera 9.2, Colon 6.3BB/9: Santana 1.7, Colon 1.7, Rivera 2.1bWAR: Santana 7.2, Colon 4.0, Rivera 4.0.fWAR: Santana 7.1, Colon 4.1, Rivera 2.9WPA: Santana 4.16, Rivera 3.15, Colon 2.77So what does this tell us? Well, that depends on how much you value a closer. Rivera was totally dominant, as he was for most of his Hall of Fame career. But he threw just 78.1 innings compared to over 220 innings for Colon and Santana. But Rivera was the one that most nationally (and particularly in New York) thought was snubbed. In fact, when asked, Colon thought Rivera had a good chance to win. “"Mariano had a great year," Colon said, thanking Rivera for teaching him how to throw his cut fastball. "I did think about the fact that maybe he was going to come away and be the winner."” However, if you were to compare just the starting pitchers, there really is no comparison. The only area where Colon had a better number was the wins category. We don’t need to go through the whole discussion about how meaningless that number is. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) had Santana clearly better. Why? Because Santana struck out 50% more batters than Colon. You can make an argument about a strikeout pitcher needing more pitches. In an ESPN article back then, “If I can get an out with one or two pitches and use my sinker or my cutter, I'm better off," Colon said through a translator. "I stopped being a village boy, thinking that I can throw any stone, any rock through a wall, and started thinking about being a guy that could last longer, to take some off my fastball and not to depend only on throwing hard.” Well, that may be fine, but in the same number of starts, Santana threw more innings. He gave up fewer runs, walked the same low number, and Santana had a WHIP under 1.00, which is crazy good for a starter. So whether you look at the more traditional stats like ERA and WHIP and K/9, Santana was clearly better. If you look at the more advanced stats like FIP, WAR (wins above replacement) or even WPA (win probability added). If wins are your stat of choice for a pitcher, well, then Colon was the rightful winner. In a New York Times article discussing the 2005 vote, Akron Beacon writer Sheldon Ocker acknowledged that he put Rivera and other relievers into the MVP candidates more than the Cy Young because they are used more often but for a lot less innings. His comment regarding why his ballot went 1.) Bartolo Colon, 2.) Cliff Lee, 3.) Mark Buehrle illustrates the thinking of the writers who voted for these awards just a dozen years ago. “It's just a whole different animal from starting pitchers," he added. "If the best starting pitcher in the league only won 15 games and Mariano Rivera or someone else saved 45, I'd vote for Rivera. But in a season with a 20-game winner and an 18-game winner, I felt the starters should get my vote.” Wins. Wins… That’s a pretty direct indictment on how Bartolo Colon won that award over Johan Santana. How Egregious? While obviously Twins fans are a bit biased, it’s fun to check out a couple of national sites and blogs and get some other opinions. Bleacher Report posted an article in which they determined the 10 most undeserving Cy Young Award winners. Bartolo Colon came in at #6. “The more deserving candidate was Johan Santana, who went 16-7, with an ERA of 2.87 and led the league in WAR and ERA-plus with a 6.3 and a 155 respectively. Santana also struck out the most batters by a wide margin and had a ridiculous .97 WHIP.” Seamheads posted and article called the Most Egregious Cy Young Snubs. Colon/Santana was only mentioned in saying that if they had listed 11 instead of 10, they would have made the list. So while most thought that Santana should have won it, statistics tell us that the voters got it wrong on several occasions. Stark Summary Shortly after Colon was awarded the 2005 AL Cy Young, ESPN’s Jayson Stark wrote an article highlighting why Santana, not Colon, deserved to win the award. Here are a few excerpts from the article: Colon finished strong, going 10-2 in his last 14 starts “for a team that needed every one of his wins to hold off Oakland.”Colon was helped out by his bullpen which blew zero saves for him.Indians hitters averaged 6.02 runs per game when Colon started.“Santana piled up 81 more strikeouts, beat Colon in ERA by 61 points, allowed almost two fewer base runners for every nine innings, and had more innings pitched, complete games and shutouts.”“Hitters who faced Colon had a batting average of .254 against him. The on-base percentage against Santana was .250.”“Colon got a ridiculous 1.32 more runs per game than Santana did. And Santana’s totals in his last three no-decisions tell it all: 23 innings, 9 hits, 3 runs, 0 wins.”“But the history of the award tells us that no starting pitcher has won just 16 games over a full season and won a Cy Young.”Of course, that has changed some since 2005. In 2009, Zack Greinke (16) and Tim Lincecum (15) were the two Cy Young winners. In 2010, Felix Hernandez won the AL award with a 13-12 record. In 2013, Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young with 16 wins. So while there are more ways to determine and vote for Best Pitcher, it will continue to be dependent upon the 15 BBWAA writers from each league that cast their vote. I don’t think anyone is going to expect Bartolo Colon to come to Target Field today and hand over that 2005 Cy Young Award. And frankly, there’s no reason to bring it up. Instead, let’s cheer on Colon and hope beyond hope that he can be a solid contributor to the Twins for the rest of the season. Or, he’ll be so bad that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have an easy decision to let him go in the next few weeks. If nothing else, it’ll be fun to watch the oldest pitcher to make a start for the Twins in their 57 seasons in Minnesota. Click here to view the article