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Jonathan Schoop was signed to play second base for the Minnesota Twins in 2019. I initially was concerned about his lack of on-base skills. He was all but replaced by July, and Luis Arraez emerged as a fan favorite. Now everyone’s favorite pick to win a batting title, can it happen in 2020?Last season Arraez played in 92 games posting a .334 average. While OPS will always reign supreme, it’s the batting average and on-base prowess that draws interest for light-hitting types. Known for his ability to command and control the strike zone, the Venezuelan posted a .399 OBP drawing 36 walks while striking out just 29 times. He hasn’t had larger deficiency between strikeouts to walks than three since 2018 with Fort Myers, and he’s walked more times than whiffing in five of his eight affiliated stops. A career .331 hitter in the minors, his .334 average at the big-league level should hardly be a surprise. Sure, against the best in the game there’s expectation of some regression, but his approach is one that should translate to almost all situations. Power isn’t his thing, and the four homers he hit for the Twins nearly trumped the six he’d launched in 459 professional games previously. Being able to place the baseball and go with pitches he’ll run into some doubles, but he’s more than content utilizing what is offered. From an upward trajectory standpoint, Arraez won’t often find substantial benefit in splits between average and BABIP. Given the process, results often will be earned and seldom stolen. He’s not driving the ball high into the air, but does a good job elevating enough off the ground. A 20-point difference between the two was present last year, and that’s the exact same amount Steamer projections see for 2020. It’s consistent with career norms and means we should have a relatively well-assumed set of expectations. The recipe for success with Arraez is a formula that won’t need tweaking. He hit the ball with what’s designated as medium exit velocities just over 50% of the time and had his soft contact percentage in the doldrums at 12.3% (top 15 in baseball). He utilizes all fields to nearly an exact one-third split, and then we get to his discipline. A 2.8% whiff rate was the lowest in baseball and only 28 qualified hitters expanded the plate more than Arraez’s 26.9% chase rate. From a summarization standpoint, that leaves us in a very good place. Luis Arraez is a contact hitter that is choosy with what he attacks. He executes within himself, has an incredible eye, and has an established track record of not deviating from these norms. The inputs are there to produce a result no Twins player has had since Joe Mauer in 2009. Now, with an award handed to one of hundreds, there’s also going to be a certain component of luck. Take the White Sox' Tim Anderson for example. He captured the American League batting title in 2019 with a .335 average. He entered the year as a career .258 hitter and enjoyed a Danny Santana-esque .399 BABIP. No AL champ has worn the crown with an average south of .330 since Joe Mauer captured his second in 2008 with a .328 mark. Conversely, Christian Yelich has picked up the nod in the National League each of the last two years being at .329 and .326 respectively. It’s hard to prognosticate what bar will need to be cleared in order to win the American League crown in 2020. It’s not outlandish to suggest the number will be at least north of .325. Projection systems have Arraez between .309 and .311 in year two, which could prove correct as opposing pitchers adjust to his abilities. I’m not going to be against a guy that’s cracked the .340 mark in multiple stops however, and certainly not one that debuted as well as he did. Minnesota’s second basemen may not be the favorite, and ultimately 2020 might not wind up being the year, but immediately or in the not-so-distant-future I’d be more than comfortable suggesting it’s a matter of when and not if. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

2019 has been a breakout year for Max Kepler. Kepler’s talent and upside has been on display since his days in the minor leagues but he has seemingly put it all together this season. In the year of the home run, Kepler has been no exception as he has led the best home run-hitting team in baseball with 36 long balls. His previous career high was 20, which Kepler will more than likely double. He will put up career highs in all of the traditional batting stats and has been good for a team best 4.4 fWAR. Defensively he is among the best right fielders in baseball and he has filled in admiringly in center field during Byron Buxton’s trips to the IL. When dreaming about Max Kepler’s upside a comp that has often been made is to Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich. Like Kepler, Yelich spends the majority of his time in right field, hits for a lot of power despite not having a traditional power hitter’s build, and leads his team in home runs and WAR. Yelich’s contract situation is also very similar to Kepler’s as he is currently signed to a seven year, 49.57 million dollar contract that ends in 2021 with a club option in 2022. Kepler is also signed to a seven million dollar AAV through 2023 with a club option for 2024. Needless to say both Minnesota and Milwaukee can be nothing less than thrilled with those contacts. While Kepler’s power surge came to fruition this season, Yelich had a similar transformation in 2018. Prior to being traded over to Milwaukee before the 2018 season, Yelich’s previous home run high with the Miami Marlins was 21 in 2016. However, last season Yelich exploded for 36 dingers in his first season with Milwaukee and has hit a career high 43 so far this year. Yelich’s 2018 numbers (.326/.402/.598, 166 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR) were good enough to win the NL MVP award and lead his team to within a game of the World Series. Although Milwaukee is now on the outside looking in for a wild card spot, Yelich has been every bit as good, hitting .326/.421/.672 for a 169 wRC+ and a 7 fWAR. Kepler’s numbers have not yet reached the level of Yelich’s, but his great leap forward has happened at the same age as Yelich’s. Both players were consistent and above average players in their earlier years, but something clicked in their age-26 seasons. As both players became more familiar with major league pitching and most likely added some strength, there power numbers surged. Both started hitting the ball harder than ever as Yelich’s hard hit percentage went from 35.2% in his age-25 season, to 47.6% at age 26 (and 50.3% this year!), while Kepler has gone from 37.1% to 42.9% (and up from 33% for his first two seasons). Both players have had similar power trajectories but there are clear differences in their overall skill sets. Kepler and Yelich both have good speed, but Yelich is a very good base stealer (26 SB on the year with only 2 CS) while Kepler very rarely attempts to take a bag. Yelich is also a much better overall hitter than Kepler thus far in their careers. Yelich has a career .301 batting average with a .381 on-base-percentage and a .373 wOBA. Kepler on the other hand has hit just .239 with a .320 OBP and .326 wOBA. Yelich has the advantage of having an extra year of being an elite hitter on Kepler, but his overall numbers would still be much better than Kepler’s. Their career walk rates are similar (Yelich 11.0%, Kepler 9.9%) and Kepler actually has the better isolated power numbers (.208 ISO to .190) but Yelich has a huge advantage when it comes to batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Kepler has always had a notoriously low BABIP (career .254) and this season has been no different at .246. Contrast that to Yelich who has always been able to “hit it where they ain’t” with a career .358 BABIP. While BABIP can fluctuate a fair amount from season to season and is somewhat luck based, a career difference of over .100 is certainly more than just luck. Yelich’s ability to hit the ball slightly harder than Kepler and his faster sprint speeds probably helps a bit, but Yelich is also less pull-heavy than Kepler which makes him less susceptible to hitting into the shift. Kepler is currently pulling the ball at a 53.7 % clip while going opposite field just 19% of the time. Yelich hits the balls to all fields, pulling 38.5 %, going to center 38.3 %, and going opposite field 23.2 % of the time. With Kepler hitting for as much power as he has, the Twins are probably loath to change his approach in order to improve his average. There is, however, one area where Kepler already exceeds Yelich – defense. Yelich is not a bad defender per say, but he is probably average at best and is rated negatively by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference (which could be the deciding factor in Cody Bellinger winning the NL MVP this year). Conversely, Kepler rates as one of the best right fielders in the MLB with a 19.8 UZR/150 and has played well in center with a 12.8 UZP/150. FanGraphs even has Kepler rated as the best defensive outfielder in all of baseball. Christian Yelich is already one of the top players in all of baseball, but Max Kepler is not so far behind. If Kepler can continue to improve his overall offensive game and maintain his homerun power, he could join the elite few in baseball. MVP awards may be hard to come by with arguably the best player in MLB history also playing in the American League (Mike Trout, in case you’ve been living under a rock), but at the young age of 26 Max Kepler is starting to turn some heads. Minnesota would naturally be happy if Kepler can continue to replicate the success he has had in 2019, but it may even be possible that the best is yet to come.

Major League Baseball and the Baseball Writers Association of America released the top three finalists for their major awards earlier this week. For fans, it can be fun to look at the credentials of the top candidates. What should be considered when naming the league’s top player? Should it be the player with the highest WAR? How important is defense in the overall equation? Does the player have to be playing on a contending team? Here’s a look at the finalists and how my ballot would look for the AL and NL MVP.The American League Finalists for MVP Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox Betts was a key cog in Boston’s dominant regular season run in the American League. He led the American League in batting average with an outstanding .346 mark. He wasn’t just about the average though as he led the big leagues in slugging percentage (.640) and runs scored (129). He was a record-setter this year as well. He became the first batting champion to have 30 or more steals and home runs. Betts is also one of the best defenders in the league and this helped him to have the top WAR total according to both versions of WAR (FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians Ramirez joined an elite club during the 2018 campaign. He became just the fifth third baseman to join the 30-30 club. He also compiled a lot of other statistics the voters like to see, with 100 runs scored and 100 RBIs. Only 25 players have been members of the 30-30 club while scoring over 100 runs and driving in over 100 runs. Ramirez and the Indians beat up on the AL Central and he played a large role in the club winning their third straight division title. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels Trout has been the game’s best player for most of the last decade. That being said, he has only been awarded two AL MVP awards during that time (2014, 2016). The Angels have struggled during his career and this has likely cost him the opportunity to win other MVP awards. Even with the Angels posting an under .500 record, Trout notched career highs in OPS (1.088) and on-base percentage (.460). It seems like the award will be handed to Betts and Trout will be the runner-up for the fourth time in the last seven seasons. Cody’s American League MVP Ballot 10. Whit Merrifield, Royals 9. Gerrit Cole, Astros 8. J.D. Martinez, Red Sox 7. Justin Verlander, Astros 6. Matt Chapman, Athletics 5. Francisco Lindor, Indians 4. Alex Bregman, Astros 3. Jose Ramirez, Indians 2. Mike Trout, Angels 1. Mookie Betts, Red Sox The National League Finalist for MVP Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies Arenado has been a rock for the Rockies over the course of his career and he is headed for his highest MVP finish. He’s arguably the best defensive third baseman in the National League. However, defense isn’t the only story with Arenado. He led the league in home runs and he had an OPS over .900. Colorado was a surprise team this season and Arenado is the face of the franchise. It seems likely that he will win an MVP at some point in his career, but this doesn’t seem like the year. Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs Baez logged over 20 games at three different defensive positions this season as Joe Maddon took advantage of his versatility. He seemed to fill up almost every part of the stat sheet. His 111 RBIs lead the National League and he finished second in extra-base hits. Overall, he finished with 40 doubles, over 30 home runs, and over 20 steals. He was a fantasy owner’s dream with all of those stats. Chicago ultimate fell short of their goal, but Baez helped them to stay neck and neck with Milwaukee. Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers Much like Betts in the American League, Yelich led the National League in both versions of WAR. Also, he won the batting title (.326) and finished first in OPS (1.000) and total bases (343). During the middle of the season, there was some talk about Jacob deGrom being the front-runner for this award. Yelich put most of those whispers to rest as he dominated in September and pushed the Brewers to the NL Central title. During that final month, he posted a 1.312 OPS, so he can probably start preparing his acceptance speech. Cody’s National League MVP Ballot 10. Trevor Story, Rockies 9. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks 8. Lorenzo Cain, Brewers 7. Max Scherzer, Nationals 6. Freddie Freeman, Braves 5. Anthony Rendon, Nationals 4. Jacob deGrom, Mets 3. Javier Baez, Cubs 2. Nolan Arenado, Rockies 1. Christian Yelich, Brewers Who would be on your ballot? Should deGrom have been a finalist for the MVP? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article

This is an excerpt of an article that appears at Zone Coverage, click here to read it in full! By the looks of it, it was going to be a battle reminiscent of David and Goliath. Well, that is, the way Vegas might have seen that battle before it happened. In one corner was the team everyone expected to be there. The Los Angeles Dodgers opened the year with a payroll of a touch over $187 million, and that was on the heels of spending $200-plus million in each of the previous five seasons. In the other corner was a team that hadn't spent that much in the previous two years combined. According to Cot's Contracts, the Milwaukee Brewers ended the 2016 and '17 seasons 30th in MLB in payroll, and opened this season with a total of just under $91 million on the books. Over the past two years, the Brewers had Opening Day payrolls of just a touch under $164 million -- combined. And the Brewers didn't just roll over, but push the NL's answer to the New York Yankees to the brink of elimination -- a decisive Game 7 at their own home park. Even if you didn't read the title to this piece, it isn't hard to see where we're going here. By comparison, the Minnesota Twins opened the season with a payroll of $128 million and change. They haven't had a payroll finish a season in the top half of MLB since 2012, and only once since the turn of the decade have they been among the game's top-10 spenders. That was in 2011 -- the year they lost 99 games. The 2012 team wasn't much better. People will label you a "Pohlad Pocket Protector" if you say it publicly, but ultimately it comes down to how a team spends rather than what it spends. Last season's AL Wild Card qualifier finished the year 21st in payroll. The team the year before that lost 103 games? They finished 20th. Money really won't be an issue this offseason no matter how someone slices it. The team only has about $30ish million hard committed for next year -- guaranteed money to Addison Reed, Jason Castro and Michael Pineda as well as dead money to Phil Hughes and buyouts of Ervin Santana and Logan Morrison's deals -- and the payroll estimator over on Cot's projects the Opening Day payroll at just a touch under $69 million as things currently stand. That includes the following arbitration figures, in case you want to do some back-of-the-napkin math about who you might non-tender if you were magically granted a seat at the table with Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. For comparison's sake, we'll put the estimates from MLB Trade Rumors in parentheses: Jake Odorizzi - $7.75 million ($9.4 million) Kyle Gibson - $6.75 million ($7.9 million) Robbie Grossman - $3.25 million ($4 million) Eddie Rosario - $3.25 million ($5 million) Miguel Sano - $2.75 million ($3.1 million) Max Kepler - $2.5 million ($3.2 million) Byron Buxton - $2.25 million ($1.2 million) Ehire Adrianza - $1.5 million ($1.8 million) Taylor Rogers - $1.5 million ($1.6 million) Trevor May - $1.25 million ($1.1 million) Add and subtract as you see fit -- for instance, Grossman could be a fairly easy non-tender with Johnny Field, Zack Granite and Jake Cave in the mix -- but this still doesn't put the Twins in any sort of payroll trouble. If the Pohlad family green-lighted an identical payroll from 2018 to 2019, the team has as much as $60 million to spend this offseason in a market that has depth and quality at a wide variety of positions. After a virtually identical team went from in the playoffs to stumbling for 95 percent of the season, how can the team get back on the path to frigid October baseball at Target Field? How about taking a page out of the Brewers' book? It's not exactly a copycat league and each team has different strengths and weaknesses, but here are a handful of ideas the Twins can embrace to push them in the right direction. 1. Don't be afraid to aggressively target improvements -- even in places of strength The Twins obviously like where their future lies in the outfield with Rosario-Buxton-Kepler, and Cave's emergence last season gave them a nice contingency plan as well. The same was true for the Brewers a year ago, when they gave the most playing time in their outfield to Ryan Braun in left, Keon Broxton in center and Domingo Santana in right. Brett Phillips made a cameo and acquitted himself fairly well. Lewis Brinson struggled but was one of the top prospects in the game. Like the Twins, the Brewers were flush with talent and youth in their outfield. So what did they do? They went out and signed Lorenzo Cain and traded for Christian Yelich. They locked down Cain -- once traded with Odorizzi, by the way -- for five years and still have the rights to the likely NL MVP through the 2021 season. If the Brewers exercise Yelich's 2022 option -- which right now seems likely based on the year he had and that he'll be finishing just his age-30 season -- they'll have five years of him for a tidy sum of $58.25 million. That won't even buy you two seasons of Bryce Harper. That's not to say that identifying the next Cain in free agency will be easy, or that his deal is guaranteed to pay dividends over the next four years. He's signed through his age-36 season, so while the early returns are good, it isn't without risk. But who might be a player like this in free agency? Michael Brantley (32) comes to mind, though perhaps the best fit would be A.J. Pollock. He's heading into his age-31 season, and his price tag will be kept down -- at least a little -- by the fact that he's played more than 130 games just twice in his seven-year MLB career. He's a terrific player and a great defender in center, and a nice fall-back plan to Byron Buxton's development -- and beyond that, would theoretically be an incredible corner outfielder defensively. Andrew McCutchen (32) could be a good fit in that respect as well. The days of him being a superstar may be gone, but even the last two years he's been a really nice player while finally seeing his way out of Pittsburgh. This dynamic isn't strictly limited to outfielders, either. Between Jason Castro, Mitch Garver and Willians Astudillo, the Twins have a combination that would amount to one heck of a catching clone. But each has question marks. Castro's coming off meniscus surgery, and it isn't the first time he's dealt with the issue. He's a great defender but the bat leaves a bit to be desired. Garver dealt with a concussion down the stretch, and has been more of an offense-first guy -- though that's not to say he hasn't worked hard at improving his defense. And Astudillo is a total wild card in more ways than one. Despite his second iffy October in a row, expect Yasmani Grandal to be a hotly contested commodity this offseason. He's a career .240/.341/.441 hitter, bats from both sides and the defensive metrics love him for his career. He also won't be 30 for a couple more weeks, either. Don't be surprised if he commands a four or five-year deal in the neighborhood of $18-20 million per season, but that's a small price to pay for a transformational catcher behind the plate and at it. The Twins should absolutely be in the discussion as a spot for him to land this offseason. 2. Understand that prospects are nice, but parades are even nicer To get Yelich, the Brewers had to go to a well-stocked cupboard and part with some nice pieces. Brinson was a consensus top-30 prospect prior to last season, and while his early-career MLB numbers are eerily reminiscent to Buxton's, it's way too early to give up on him. He won't turn 25 until a month into next year. Isan Diaz is a middle-infield prospect who has appeared in top-100 lists each of the last two seasons, and at 22 got a look at Triple-A last season -- albeit a bit of an ugly one (.639 OPS). Still, he was four-plus years younger than the average PCL player, so that's not too shabby. Monte Harrison was a top-75 prospect across all platforms and in his age-22 season took a bit of a step back this year in Double-A, hitting .240/.316/.399. Most concerning is that he fanned 215 times in 136 games (583 PA), but he was still nearly a 20-20 guy (19 homers, 28 steals) along the way. The physical tools are tremendous. The final piece was starter Jordan Yamamoto, a 22-year-old righty who doesn't project as a top-of-the-rotation guy despite eye-popping numbers in the minors this season. Across three levels, Yamamoto posted a 1.83 ERA, 11.1 K/9, a 0.83 WHIP and just 1.8 BB/9. He'll be 23 in May and could be pitching in the big leagues by then. None of this is to say the Twins should make Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff available or that another Yelich will be on the market this winter -- though Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto will almost certainly be dealt with two years of control left at reasonable rates -- but the overarching theme here is that creativity will rule the day.

At age 24, Max Kepler has now played 167 major league baseball games. The German-born product has a full season of big league experience under his belt, and the $800k investment Minnesota made to sign him looks to be paying off. When projecting what he could be in the future, there's one player that I can't seem to get out of my head. Enter the Marlins Christian Yelich.I began making this comparison back in March of 2016, suggesting that Kepler could be a better version of the Marlins outfielder, or if nothing else, a very similar player. Now through 51 games in 2017, we're starting to see that come to fruition. Yelich was a top 25 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2013, while Kepler checked into the top 50 just once (and among only two national outlets). However, their skill sets seem quite similar, as do their frames, and the numbers are starting to bear that out. Through June 6, Chistian Yelish owns a .270/.348/.407(.755 OPS) slash line with 14 extra- base hits, seven of which have been homers. He's worked a 40/23 K/BB ratio, and he's driven in 25 runners. On the flip side, Max Kepler has compiled a .269/.348/.462 (.810 OPS) line in 2017, along with 21 extra-base hits, of which also seven are homers. He owns a 40/21 K/BB ratio and has 25 RBI to his credit. Opening up the hood just a bit further, the underlying peripherals are all virtually the same as well. To illustrate just how close we're talking, take a look at some of these numbers: Yelich- 9.7 BB% 16.8 K% 33.9 Hard% 24.1 O-Swing% 81.6 Contact% 7.8 SwStr% Kepler- 10.0 BB% 19.0 K% 37.4 Hard% 24.9 O-Swing% 77.9 Contact% 9.1 SwStr% When looking at their spray charts, things continue to remain in line. Sure, Kepler pulls the ball to right field a bit more, but he is also a bit more uneven in his splits against opposite handed pitchers. While facing righties, Kepler owns a .901 OPS compared to a .463 OPS against lefties. Yelich remains more balanced with a .768 OPS against righties and a .665 OPS against lefties. For the most part however, they continue to work the same. Defensively, things are comparable as well. In 2017, Yelich has operated solely as the Marlins centerfielder, moving over from left. Kepler has played mainly right field for the Twins, but has sprinkled in some time in center. To date, Yelich has been worth 4 DRS with a UZR of 3.0 and RngR factor of 4.7. Kepler has compiled 7 DRS for Minnesota while totaling a 4.0 UZR and a 2.3 RngR factor. A season ago, both players checked in with UZR totals right around 0.0, while being worth 6 DRS apiece. So, what do we make of it all, other than the Twins might have their own version of Christian Yelich? Well, at this point, that doesn't mean all that much. Yelich is a really nice player, and he's got a Gold Glove to his credit, but the accolades pretty much end there. In 2016, he did win a Silver Slugger and came in 19th in the NL MVP voting. He's never been an All-Star, and while being a familiar name, he's not necessarily regarded as among the best in the game. While no doubt overshadowed by his teammate Byron Buxton, Max Kepler is in the conversation with Aaron Judge defensively among right fielders. Unfortunately Mookie Betts exists and is running away with Gold Glove consideration for AL right fielders, but Kepler should be a finalist at the end. He's always going to have stiff competition for Silver Slugger awards, but he very realistically could be a 20/10 or even 20/20 guy (with work on the base paths). Given what was expected of Yelich coming up as a prospect, and the arc of his career thus far (he just started for Team USA in the WBC), allowing Minnesota to have their own version is far from something the Twins would scoff at. Kepler is not all that far removed from last year's .734 OPS in 113 games during his first big league season, but as he's settled in, the height of his play has risen as well. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had to be salivating at the opportunity to build a core around Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, but Max Kepler is far more than a throw-in. We're seeing him turn into a legitimate name in this league, and it may be just the beginning. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz Click here to view the article