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An examination of the Twins roster in Derek Falvey's seventh year reveals four fundamental philosophies the organization has embraced. Today we look at the organization's obsession with one-year contracts. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports This is where the group leaves the biggest footprint. In the Falvey-Levine era, most of the veteran fill-ins discussed in Part 2 have come in the form of one-year contracts, or contracts with vesting, team, or mutual options for the second year. Based on my research, the breakdown in the length of free agent contracts can be seen below, prior to the second Correa signing, sorted from most recent to least recent, again color-coded by position. One-year contracts are something of a default option for most clubs. No-harm-no-foul, small commitments have a short-term risk. However, this club has shown a special proclivity for the one-year deal. This pattern emphasizes the importance of the farm system producing fruit in this organization. If the decision-makers refuse to find longer-term pieces in free agency, they need to be sure that their internal options are enough to win more games than they lose. They have made a few longer-term commitments, but those situations were special exceptions, such as shoring up the catching position with Jason Castro in 2017 and Christian Vazquez in 2022. Carlos Correa's three-year deal was a one-year deal with insurance, should he suffer a significant injury or forget how to play baseball, a risk the club was willing to take given his talent and clubhouse presence. Although the Josh Donaldson contract does not reflect favorably on them in hindsight, like with Correa, they saw his off-field presence to be valuable (i.e., “He’ll bring intensity”) regardless of his performance, which was expected to be high as well. As can be seen in the table, they do often try to get a bit of extra value out of these one-year deals—especially for bounceback candidates—in the form of options. Most recently, in 2022, they added team options for the Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer signings. If either of them had regained their past form, the team could have brought them back for about $10MM each, The options, though, however, have rarely been exercised, suggesting more duds than bouncebacks. The only option exercised by the team was for the second year of Nelson Cruz ’s 2019 contract. The Cruz signing has been the best in the Falvey-Levine era, netting 6.3 fWAR for about $18.5 million over his first, two-year deal. Exercising that option was a no-brainer. The majority of those moves have not paid off anywhere close to as well as the Cruz signing. A few times each offseason, they make attempts at players on multi-year deals. Before Donaldson and Correa twice, those attempts have not borne fruit. However, their steadfast adherence to their strategy generally prohibits them from the biggest move. As with many of the one-year deals, the Twins' signings of Donaldson and Correa were due in large part to other clubs' wariness over injury concerns. They instead made their interest known and provided a lower offer as a fallback. They attempted the same to no avail, for instance, with Carlos Rodon, Zack Wheeler , and Yu Darvish. Those types of moves, though, would largely prohibit future moves of a similar magnitude. Without the Donaldson trade, they likely would not have been able to sign Correa the first time around. It is possible that spending more money to land Wheeler would have precluded them from future flexibility, so they likely see value in never overextending themselves, especially on pitchers. For this reason, it’s imperative that the Correa signing pays off, because they likely will not have the ability to sign even another Donaldson-like contract in the near future. Given that the chips have been pushed in on a player like Correa, I feel pretty good about the odds, but all that needs to happen is the spontaneous combustion of an ankle to sink the ship. What are your thoughts on the one-year approach with specific exceptions? View full article

It doesn't have a lot to do with Michael Wacha. Image courtesy of Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports A recent report in The Athletic, which reads more like an off-hand comment than a groundbreaking revelation, purports that the Twins have expressed interest in RHP Michael Wacha. Now, “expressed interest” is a favorite baseball term that can loosely define every style of relationship a team can have with a player. Thad Levine vaguely dreaming about Wacha could lead to the team “expressing interest.” The Phillies have “expressed interest” in Mike Trout for a decade. The term means nothing. The connection makes sense, though. The Twins have yet to sign a major-league pitcher; Wacha is an arm capable of accruing outs between reasonable levels of runs scoring. With a bunch of theoretical payroll space and Carlos Correa probably still signing with the Mets, the Twins should spend their money on something. It’s a perfect pairing. But we’ve been down this path before. J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer are four other arms who once possessed some nebulous upside, enough to convince a professional franchise to pay them money for their pitching labor. What happened after those players signed is well-known; we don’t have to tread that path again. Wacha is his own man, though; it would be unfair—and illogical—to believe he would match those past pitcher’s sins just because he loosely fits their outline. The Red Sox, Mets, and Rays, teams run by baseball people far brighter than us casuals, looked at Wacha, glanced at his numbers, and believed in him enough to guarantee millions of dollars to the former Cardinal standout. These weren’t teams chasing a false promise; they fairly gambled that, with a few alterations, Wacha could provide enough production to bring their franchise value. The bet didn’t work for the Mets or Rays, but it worked enough for the Red Sox that one could generously declare their deal a success. So, Wacha could do the same for Minnesota; that possibility remains tangible. The issue is a baseball-specific sunk cost fallacy mixed with classic roster manipulation. Those past deals—beyond turning sour as each pitcher failed to play well—failed because the Twins continued to send those arms out to die. Bundy inhaled 140 real major-league innings. He’ll now slither into baseball obscurity on a minor-league deal with *insert team here.* Or he’ll become an ace. Baseball is funny like that. The Twins told Bundy to go get 'em so often because, well, they were paying him $4 million, and people like seeing a return on their investment, but also because of flexibility. Or, rather, a lack of it. In a naturally conservative institution like baseball, hitting the eject button on a player is a nearly unalterable act. Without those tasty minor-league options, a franchise has to sneak a player by other teams, hoping that no one notices that a capable arm is now free for anyone to acquire. When that fails because the Diamondbacks need someone to throw slop for them, the team takes a vicious hit to their depth. So Bundy stays because he’s somewhat usable. In that sense, Bundy is useful; every team unwillingly hands out innings to players they’d prefer to avoid starting—hopefully, Adam Wilk is enjoying life. It’s the nature of pitching. But Bundy also blocks others. Louie Varland remains in the minors because Bundy isn’t terrible; he certainly earned a few victories for the Twins, but is he so much better than Varland that the Twins should eschew the youngster in favor of the veteran? This was the essential issue of the 2022 Twins; no one was truly horrifyingly bad, but instead existed in a mediocre haven, making it difficult for the team ever to cut bait. At least Shoemaker made it clear he was cooked. Wacha is probably not better than Varland; that’s the article. If you sign a pitcher with a good chance at being below-average—and without disrespect, Wacha fits that mold—you create fake depth; at least Varland can go to St. Paul if he starts pitching poorly. With Wacha, you just have to grin and bear it, only cutting bait once he reaches unforgivable status. Or, in Twins shorthand, if he “Shoemakers” it. View full article

Prior to the 2022 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins owned a rotation in desperate need of an overhaul. A bad 2021 team used 16 different starting pitchers, more than three rotations worth, and the year ahead had to be a drastic change. The front office immediately opted for more of the same. Image courtesy of Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports Going into 2021, manager Rocco Baldelli was strapped with ineffective veterans Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ. The latter posted mediocre numbers with the New York Yankees in a truncated 2020, and hadn’t truly been good since 2018. The former wouldn’t know a clean bill of health if a doctor prescribed it, and while decent when healthy, was nothing short of a trainwreck for the Twins. In total, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine’s constructed roster saw a record 35 pitchers brought to the mound. Short starts were a constant due to ineffectiveness, and team mascot Willians Astudillo made four different appearances on the bump. Fast forward to free agency 2022 and Dylan Bundy was the first acquisition made by Minnesota. Bundy’s lone good season came during the 2020 debacle, and despite being a former 4th overall pick, he’s never looked the part of a legit starting arm. It was a fine back-of-the-rotation edition, but ultimately he made 29 starts and far too often in big spots. Doubling down on more of the same, the Twins opted for Chris Archer who had recently had Thoracic Outlet surgery and repaired a hip labrum. His 19 1/3 innings dating back to 2019 should’ve never had him beginning 2022 in anyone’s starting rotation. Falvey told reporters recently Minnesota wanted to ease him along, but things never got better. The Twins President of Baseball Operations said, “Our hope was that if we started a little slow with him … to be able to unleash that a little more through the course of the year,” Falvey said. “And we were just never able to get there. Then when we had other injuries, as a result of the other guys going down … we then ultimately had to continue to lean on Chris at that stage to make those starts.” Despite using a club record 38 pitchers in 2022, again because of poor performances both in the rotation and bullpen, a positive caveat was discovered depth. Louie Varland followed up a 2021 Minor League Pitcher of the Year award by making it to the big leagues and grabbing his first game on the final day of the season. Simeon Woods Richardson, a piece acquired with Austin Martin from the Blue Jays when Minnesota sent out Jose Berrios, also took a turn in the majors. Add in the continued growth for Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Josh Winder and you’ve got a solid set of depth starters. We won’t see Devin Smeltzer back in the organization next season as he opted to pursue opportunities elsewhere, but Cole Sands could continue to develop. There’s hope that Jordan Balazovic will return to form, and another big jump from Marco Raya, David Festa, or Blayne Enlow could put them in the conversation as well. In short, there are plenty of options to fill out the group. That puts pressure on Falvey and Levine to adequately allocate pitching funds this offseason. Whether on the open market or in trade, the time to bargain shop has come and gone. Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle are all capable top-half rotation pieces. Chris Paddack could be that too, assuming he comes back well mid-summer. No one else brought in can even flirt with the notion of slotting in behind that group. Aces are few and far between in baseball. Rarely do they hit the open market, and it’s always a bit of a dice roll as to which will thrive in a new situation. Minnesota isn’t an ideal market, but money talks and it’s time for the front office to speak with it. Another throw-in starter being signed to anything but a camp invite deal should be cause for significant ire. It’s time to add big or stop asking to be taken seriously. View full article

Over the course of the past few seasons, plenty has been made of the struggles plaguing the Minnesota Twins. While the product on the field has failed, there’s also been plenty of finger-pointing at those that control it. When it comes to the manager, what do fans need to see? Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli took over as manager for the Minnesota Twins prior to the 2019 season. He replaced Hall of Fame player, Paul Molitor. Although Molitor was seen favorably in his time on the field, he was more of a figurehead manager, celebrated for his own accolades, than those accomplished from the dugout. Molitor seemed to be on the hot seat following a 103-loss campaign in 2016, but the 85-win season brought him Manager of the Year honors and spared him another season under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Wanting to bring in their own manager and distance themselves from the Terry Ryan regime, Falvey and Levine cast a wide net and ultimately landed on Baldelli. A former top prospect with a solid career, this is Baldelli’s first managing gig. He came highly respected from the forward-thinking, and analytically driven, Tampa Bay Rays organization. In year one (2019), Baldelli was praised mightily as he orchestrated one of the most successful regular seasons in franchise history. The Bomba Squad invigorated the fanbase, and a club led by Nelson Cruz launched the most home runs by any team over a single season in Major League Baseball history. 2020 is hard to quantify given the truncated nature of the pandemic-influenced season, and we know how the past two years have gone. After what can be categorized as a wildly successful beginning, Baldelli’s allure with fans has hit the skids. Is that largely due to a reflection of what his team has done lately, more of a response to what he’s brought to the table as a whole, or something in between? If there are two chief complaints for the Twins manager, I’d likely boil them down to pitching management and lack of ultimate success. Pitching Management The first relates directly to starting pitchers and bullpen usage. Over the course of recent seasons, it’s become a major complaint from the fanbase that Baldelli pulls his starters too soon. To date in 2022, the Twins 4.8 innings per start is tied for 28th across Major League Baseball. That average is higher than only the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays. That’s notable as the former is doing so by circumstance, while the latter is doing so by choice. The league average innings per start is 5.2, which is just above Minnesota’s tally. As discussed earlier this year, short starts aren’t simply a Twins thing, and they really aren’t a Baldelli thing either. Baseball has trended toward pulling pitchers earlier as hitters have become so much more advanced, and there are so few truly elite arms. A team like Tampa Bay has supplemented that reality with strong tactics and bullpen help, while the teams who rely most on their starters such as the Astros, Guardians, and Phillies have arms like Justin Verlander, Shane Bieber, and Aaron Nola. Across baseball in 2022, there was an average of 32.2 pitchers used in 2023. That’s the second highest number in the history of the sport, trailing only the 34.4 used last season. What has to happen for Baldelli to allow starters a longer leash is two-fold. Minnesota must produce more runs than they did in 2022, and the starting pitchers have to be better. Expecting the likes of Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy to give five or more innings on a routine basis isn’t logical. While Baldelli has a say in player acquisition, he’s also at the mercy of the team provided to him. Implore the front office to better when it comes to acquisitions on the front end (or the bullpen if following the Rays model) and the results should follow. Win When it Counts While it’s not the fault of this current Twins club that the franchise totes an 0-18 record in the postseason currently, it is at the forefront of fans’ minds. The reality is that no matter how many division titles the Twins have won, and they’ve gone .500 in that regard under Baldelli, they’ve also bowed out without even a playoff victory while he’s been in charge. It’s certainly not easy to win in October, especially if you’re getting paired up against a juggernaut like New York or Houston. However, there’s no reason why a team winning 101 games should bow out with a whimper, or why you can’t grab a victory at home in a short series. Twins fans want to see the regular season translate into playoff success. With 30 teams, and only one winning their final tilt, it’s hard to suggest World Series or bust as an expectation, but doing something of note beyond the 162-game calendar would go a long way. Knowing 2023 is an integral point for Minnesota and Baldelli, what are you hoping for in a change of pace? If you support what Rocco has brought to the table, why? If you need to see better, what could change your opinion? View full article

Every. Single. Game. The same refrain thunders from fans all over Twins Territory. Why aren’t the Minnesota Twins allowing their starting pitchers to go deeper in games? Unfortunately, this isn’t something tied to the organization alone, and there’s a pretty straightforward answer. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports At the Major League Baseball level, most things are about the process working to dictate ideal results. Whether you view the concept of analytics as annoying or not, the reality is that they represent an application of information. When it comes to pitching, hitting, or virtually anything else on a baseball diamond, results are calculated by statistics derived from outcomes. Every time that Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli steps onto the field and travels to the pitching mound hand-wringing ensues. Of course this is often because the removal of a starting pitcher is happening in the 5th inning or earlier. It’s not something done on gut feeling or through a knee-jerk reaction, but instead a reflection of what makes sense based on actual results. Four pitchers have made the vast majority of starts for the Twins this season. Among them, Sonny Gray is the only one you would even consider for a top spot or two in a good rotation. Joe Ryan, while flashing signs of solid stuff, more closely resembles a number three or four pitcher. He’s been pulverized by teams above .500 all season long, and while that’s to be expected given his age and exposure, it doesn’t excuse the reality. I have been vocal in that Dylan Bundy seems to be found value for Minnesota considering his output in spite of the predictive metrics. He is going to regress. Everything about his outcomes suggests regression will hit him hard. What the Twins have done is dance around having that reality smack them in the face to this point, and pitching him any more than he has would be playing with fire. Chris Archer is that fire that routinely burns both his manager and the bullpen beyond three or four innings. His stuff has been good, but the wheels fall off and things go awry. Asking pitchers to face a lineup more than two times is not a bad idea, in fact it’s one that should be welcomed. In operating that way however, you need to have a stable of pitchers capable of completing that feat. There’s absolutely no argument to be made that the Twins had those arms when the season started, and now 36 pitchers into the year, they couldn’t be further from that being a possibility. If there’s criticism to be had, it’s towards Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in failing to adequately supplement their starting staff. Major League Baseball as a whole has trended towards shorter starts for quite some time. Through the first handful of months this season, the average start was lower than five innings for the first time in history. With that reality, you’re effectively asking managers to massage a bullpen for something like four innings on any given night. That requires both high-end arms, as well as solid depth. Minnesota had no arms capable of going deep into games when the season started, and their answer to a bullpen needing supplemental capabilities was a 38-year-old sidearmer in the form of Joe Smith. It’s great that rookie Jhoan Duran has been amazing, but it’s also been absolutely necessary for the Twins to stay afloat. His win probability added leads the league because of the weight being carried on his shoulders, and Baldelli wasn’t provided any additional answers until August. Jorge Lopez has regressed, and Michael Fulmer has been mediocre. Yes, Griffin Jax is a nice development, and it’s great Caleb Thielbar returned from coaching Division 2 baseball, but what are we doing here? At the end of the day, the question as to why the Twins don’t allow starters to go deeper into ballgames really becomes why doesn’t Minnesota have better starting pitchers. It’s a process to develop arms, and very few will ever be a true ace. It’s also incredibly difficult to spend dollars on arms with 29 other teams vying for their services, and even less talent finding you desirable. View full article

The Twins traveled to The Bronx to start a big four-game series. There are a ton of ties between the two organizations, and several former teammates contributed, especially early in the game. Some good things happened, but ultimately, they let the guy you can't let beat you... beat you. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Chris Archer: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K (76 pitches, 48 strikes (63.2%) Home Runs: Gary Sanchez (10) Bottom 3 WPA: Trevor Megill (-0.257), Jose Miranda (-0.143), Luis Arraez (-0.069) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Old Friends in New Places When you consider the dominance that the Yankees have held over the Twins over the past couple of decades, it’s hard to believe that there are so many players who have moved from one team to the other via trade or in free agency. Obviously the big move was the spring trade that sent Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt to The Bronx in exchange for Gio Urshella and Gary Sanchez. Aaron Hicks is in his seventh season in pinstripes, and could remain there through the 2026 season. He signed a seven-year, $70 million deal after a 2018 season in which he received MVP votes. Marwin Gonazalez played for the Twins in 2019 and 2020. He split 2021 between the Red Sox and Astros, and this season, he has played in 66 games for the Yankees. In addition, the Twins acquired Jake Cave from the Yankees prior to the 2018 season in exchange for hard-throwing Luis Gil. At the time, Gil had pitched only in the Dominican Summer League, but since has become a high-end prospect who debuted in 2021 but needed Tommy John surgery earlier this year. While he came from the Reds, Sonny Gray spent part of 2017 and all of 2018 with the Yankees. Combined, he went 15-16 with a 4.51 ERA over 195 2/3 innings. More Fun Connections Nick Gordon batted cleanup for the Twins in this game. As we know, his father, Tom, pitched 22 seasons in the big leagues including two great seasons with the Yankees in 2004 and 2005. He was an All Star in 2004 and had a 2.38 ERA over 170 1/3 innings over the two seasons. Yankees right-fielder Oswaldo Cabrera made his MLB debut on August 17th and Monday was his 18th big-league game. The 23-year-old’s older brother, Leobaldo Cabrera (24) has spent the 2022 season with the Wichita Wind Surge. Has To Feel Good Those #OldFriends accounted for the scoring early in the game. In the bottom of the first, Josh Donaldon hit a single off the wall in left field to drive in Aaron Judge. 1-0 Yankees. Two innings later, Marwin Gonzalez hit his fourth home run of the season. 2-0 Yankees. In the top of the fifth inning, Gary Sanchez hit a ball 115.1 mph at a 30-degree launch angle, and it traveled 473 feet from home plate, well beyond the outfield fence. Jake Cave had walked prior to the homer. Game Tied 2-2. Archer Negates Taillon Coming into the game, the pitching matchup of Chris Archer vs. Jameson Taillon looked like a major mismatch. If they matched up often, it likely wouldn’t bode well for the Twins. However, on this day, the two pitchers ended up with a very similar line. Both went five innings and gave up two runs. Taillon gave up two runs on six hits, including one homer. He walked two and struck out three batters. Archer gave up two runs on four hits, including one homer. He walked two and struck out two batters. Bullpen Game The bullpens took over a tie game in the sixth inning. The Yankees brought in Greg Weissert. Gio Urshela got on thanks to an error by Josh Donaldson, but the Twins were unable to score him as the next three batters were retired. Trevor Megill was the Twins sixth-inning man. Gleyber Torres led off with a line-drive single to right field. On a 2-2 pitch, Megill hung a curveball to Aaron Judge who hit the ball 110 mph at a 34 degree launch angle. It landed 404 feet from home plate, in the second deck in the left field bleachers. Giancarlo Stanton grounded out, but then Donaldson walked. Fortunately, Jose Trevino grounded into a double play to end the inning. As Glen Perkins said several times on the broadcast, Judge was the one guy in the Yankees lineup that you just can't let beat you. And they let him beat them. Now down 4-2 in the bottom of the seventh inning, the Twins were certainly not going to use their top relievers in back-to-back days. So Emilio Pagan came on, presumably with the goal of working two innings. With one out, Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit just his second home run of the second. It wasn’t as prodigious as Sanchez or Judge’s homers, but it counts just the same. Pagan began the bottom of the 8th inning by striking out Aaron Judge. Aaron Hicks pinch hit for Stanton, and the Twins brought in Austin Davis for his Twins debut. The southpaw struck out by Hicks and Josh Donaldson to end the inning. (Learn more about Davis here.) Twins bullpen line: 3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Yankees bullpen line: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K. data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== What’s Next? The Twins continue this four-game series with the Yankees. Here the the remaining pitching matchups in the series. Each game will start at 6:05 central time and air on Bally Sports North. Tuesday, RHP Joe Ryan (10-7, 3.88 ERA) vs RHP Gerrit Cole (10-7, 3.28 ERA) Wednesday: TBA vs Domingo German (2-3, 3.12 ERA) Thursday: RHP Sonny Gray (7-4, 3.18 ERA) vs. TBA Speculation Wednesday’s spot in the rotation is the one vacated by Tyler Mahle. I’d present two options. The first is fun. Call up Minnesotan Louie Varland to make his MLB debut at Yankees Stadium. The reigning Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year (and a leading candidate to repeat in 2022) would be exciting, regardless of what he did. Option #2 is that the Twins have Aaron Sanchez return to the rotation. He last pitched on Friday night, coming in for Mahle in the third inning and throwing 70 pitches in relief. This may not be exciting, but personal opinion, it’s probably the right decision. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT Sanchez 0 0 70 0 0 70 Fulmer 0 17 0 14 0 31 Duran 0 11 0 20 0 31 Jax 0 20 0 8 0 28 Thielbar 0 13 0 15 0 28 Megill 0 0 0 0 27 27 Pagan 0 0 0 0 22 22 López 0 13 0 0 0 13 Davis 0 0 0 0 11 11 View full article

With a little help from his friends, Nick Gordon guided the Twins to victory. Box Score Chris Archer: 4 ⅓ IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Jake Cave (3), Nick Gordon (6), Gary Sánchez (13) Top 3 WPA: Nick Gordon (.509), Jose Miranda (.118), Jake Cave (.085) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Chris Archer took the mound opposite Kutter Crawford on Tuesday. The veteran righty was well-acquainted with the Red Sox; he spent his glory years with the Rays in the same division as his opponent on Tuesday. While the players have largely changed, Boston’s laundry remains an old foe. The early innings were easy to digest; Nick Gordon—after consecutive walks by Max Kepler and Jose Miranda—swung at an outside breaking ball and smoked a Joe Mauer special into left-center field, scoring both runners to give the Twins a 2-0 lead in the 1st frame. Gordon’s eventful night would be far from over. The Twins jabbed once more in the following inning: Jake Cave caught up to a high fastball, packing just enough oomph to will the ball over the left-center field wall. Kiké Hernández, try as he might, could not break free from gravity with enough force to rob Cave’s blast. The solo homer marked Cave’s third long ball since re-joining the Twins. The game stopped to rest in the 3rd inning before continuing its hectic drama; a marvelous defense gem by Carlos Correa provided the sole highlight. The fun started in the 4th inning; the Red Sox, ever aware of Archer’s struggles beyond the early frames, singled, doubled, sac-flied, and walked; a run was on the board, and the situation turned dire in an instant. Archer refused to give in, and a perfectly-placed slider coaxed a ground ball off Trevor Story’s bat; Gordon and Correa turned two, and the threat ended as quickly as it began. Boston’s bats were not deterred, and the 5th inning proved deadly to Archer’s start. A barrage of singles scored a run, knocking Archer out of the game while leaving the inning’s fate to the cleaner, Caleb Thielbar. The lefty—so well-trusted by Rocco Baldelli in these situations—revealed mortality as Xander Bogaerts dumped a game-tying single into left field and Rafael Devers walked. With the threat still at Defcon 1, Michael Fulmer emerged to put out the fire—which he did—but not before another run scored off a wild pitch. It was messy, brutish, and downright ugly, but the Red Sox walked out of the 5th inning with a one-run lead. Remember that sentence earlier about Nick Gordon? With aid from a truly egregious error from Alex Verdugo, the Twins loaded the bases for the second baseman, gifting him a chance to prove himself. In a season that has lacked a true ignitor—the kind of guy whose spark brings a team to life, Gordon has shown flashes of becoming that sort of player; could he do it once more? The count was 0-2, but that didn’t matter; Gordon jumped on a low fastball and crushed a grand slam over the high wall in right field. The home run was so crucial that Gary Sánchez hit a titanic bomb the following frame, and almost no one will remember it. The teams exchanged runs as the outs whittled away—a single here, a double there—but the game’s momentum never budged, and the Twins ended Tuesday's game as the victors. Notes: Nick Gordon is slashing .311/.360/.511 over his last 30 games. Jake Cave is slugging .667 over his last seven games. Chris Archer has crossed the five-inning threshold twice since the end of June. Griffin Jax has not given up an earned run since August 10th; he owns 12 strikeouts over 8 2/3 innings. Post-Game Interviews What’s Next? Joe Ryan and Michael Wacha will lead their respective teams in the game’s final series on Wednesday night. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

There were moments of brilliance. Yet the Twins dropped another game to the Houston Astros on Thursday evening in the series finale against Houston. Box Score Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer, 4 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, BB, 2 K (86 pitches, 55 strikes, 64%) Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (16) Bottom 3 WPA: Chris Archer (-.351), Luis Arraez (-.128), Carlos Correa (-.089) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Things looked sweet off the bat when Jorge Polanco put the Twins in front with a solo homer in the bottom of the first inning, launching a 1-0 fastball from Luis Garcia over the right field wall. The lead didn't last for long. Chris Archer gave up five hits and four in the bottom of the first, including a three-run homer from Trey Mancini to put the Astros up 4-1. Minnesota stabbed back in the second thanks to the hitting and speed of Nick "Flash G" Gordon. Gordon crushed the first pitch of the inning to center field for a leadoff triple. On the next pitch, Gordon scored on a wild pitch to bring the Twins within two. A run scored before Garcia could even register a strike? Not too shabby! After surrendering a run in the third, The Twins brought the deficit back to two with a sac-fly from Luis Arraez that scored Gary Sanchez. Arraez's sac-fly would be the last laugh from the Twins' offense. The Twins recorded leadoff singles in both the sixth and seventh innings but failed to record any runs. Minnesota recorded only seven hits on the night and left three runners on base. Bending Arch Thursday night wasn't the cleanest day at the office for Twins starter Chris Archer. Through four innings, Archer allowed five runs on eight hits while striking out two and walking one. The outing was a stark contrast from his last start when he threw five innings of three-hit, one-run ball against the Rangers. Thursday's five runs were the most that Archer has given up since his July 27th start against the Brewers, when he gave up six runs on three hits through three innings. Archer has recorded a 3.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in the month of August. Bullpen Battles Despite the loss, the Twins' bullpen was rock solid on the evening. Jhoan Duran made his earliest appearance of the year, pitching a scoreless fifth inning. Griffin Jax followed suit with a perfect sixth inning; Jax now has six straight scoreless appearances, spanning six combined innings. Seven of Jax's 11 outings in the month of August have kept the opposition from touching home. Despite giving up two hits, trade deadline addition Jorge Lopez pitched a scoreless seventh inning, Trevor McGill gave up a two-out run in the eighth but managed to record all three outs on strikeouts. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet What's Next For the first time ever, the San Francisco Giants will head to Target Field to take on the Twins starting tomorrow night. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm CST. View full article

This offseason the Minnesota Twins front office went for two separate bargain signings in the starting rotation. Targeting both Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, the organization clearly was trying to squeeze more from both of them. Now nearing the end of the season, how has it worked out? Coming out of the lockout and going into Spring Training, it was always apparent that Minnesota needed to add frontline starting pitching. Jose Berrios was traded near the peak of his value, and finding an heir to the top of the rotation was a must. With Kenta Maeda set to be shelved for much of 2022, alternative options had to be explored. Ultimately Sonny Gray was the ace acquired for Minnesota’s starting rotation, but value plays were made with Bundy and Archer. Both had seen previous success, but neither seemed to be much more than an opportunity to capture lightning in a bottle. Where are we at now? Dylan Bundy After posting a 6.06 ERA with the Los Angeles Angels last season, Minnesota was certainly hoping to sign the Bundy that tallied a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts during the 2020 season. Now owning a 4.76 ERA with a 4.28 FIP, Bundy hasn’t been the best version of himself, but he also has avoided consistently being the worst starter in baseball that he has flashed at times. Bundy’s strikeout numbers have dropped substantially this season, all the way down to a 6.9 K/9, but he’s given up less walks and homers than he ever before has. His 3.86 xERA also suggests that he’s been better than the counting stats may indicate. Some credit is owed to Bundy reinventing himself while losing velocity. His 89 mph fastball is lower than it’s ever been, but he’s generated a career best chase rate and still gets whiffs 10% of the time. Having been worth 1.0 fWAR in 2022, Fangraphs puts Bundy’s value at $8.2 million. Signed for $5 million this season, Bundy won’t have his $11 million option for 2023 picked up, but he’s given the Twins exactly what they bargained for in 2022. Chris Archer Signed to a $3.5 million deal for 2022, Minnesota took a last minute look at Archer despite him having pitched under 20 innings since 2019. Archer has tried to battle back from injury, most notably undergoing surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Shoulder issues are typically more altering to pitcher trajectories than arm issues, and that’s been part of what has held Archer back. His 4.15 ERA across 20 starts is backed by a 4.42 FIP. He’s nowhere near the pitcher he once was, striking out just 7.5 per nine and walking a career worst 4.5 per nine. Allowed to go just two times through the lineup each start, Archer has basically been a tightrope walker. Working around traffic and trying not to give in too greatly, he’s consistently put the Twins bullpen in a situation where they’ll need to work overtime. Archer’s velocity is actually up a bit from where it was last season but he’s not getting whiffs or chases on his stuff. Needing to nibble on the edges, there’s consistently been situations where the walks pile up in bunches. At 0.6 fWAR though, Fangraphs suggests Minnesota has gotten what they paid for as he’s generated $4.7 million of value. Like Bundy, Archer won’t have his 2023 option picked up either, but both have been about as expected. There’s been more to like with the former first round pick, but neither are something that will be missed when they wind up elsewhere. In a vacuum, both arms could have made sense in Minnesota, but pairing either with a bad bullpen leaves opportunity for exposure on a weekly basis. It’s hard to go the route of bargain bin shopping in the rotation when you do the same thing in relief. View full article

After an awful walk off loss on Saturday night, the Twins went into their series finale against the Angels on a mission to regroup and prove to themselves they are still a playoff contending team. That mission failed as the Twins dropped their second series of a five-game road trip returning home with only one win. Box Score: SP: Chris Archer 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (65 pitches, 45 strikes (65.8 strike %)) Home Runs: Byron Buxton (28) Top 3 or Bottom 3 WPA: Chris Archer -.168, Jose Miranda .-126, Jorge Polanco -.110 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) The first two innings for the Twins were all Byron Buxton and Chris Archer. Buxton put the Twins up 2-0 in the first with his 28th homer of the season, Correa being the other run scoring and reaching on a walk in the previous at bat. Archer continued from the progress of control he had shown in his previous start against the Blue Jays. For his first two innings, 21 of 29 Archer’s pitches were in the strike zone and he struck out half of the batters he faced to get outs as well. Command of the strike zone began to slip for Archer in the third. Archer threw 22 pitches to that point, but only 11 landed in the strike zone as he issued his first walk of the game against Shohei Ohtani which put Archer in a jam with two on and two out facing Luis Rengifo. Rengifo tied the game up 2-2 with a bases-clearing double making contact on a slider high in the strike zone and away. Archer averted further damage striking out Tyler Ward in the next at-bat with only three strikes. Still, the Twins found themselves tied once more and needed to mount the offense for another comeback for the second day in a row. The Twins failed to break the tie in the top of the fourth. This gave the Angels an opportunity to do so. And they did. Jo Adell led off the bottom half of the inning with a double and later scored on a sacrifice fly from former Twin Kurt Suzuki that put the Angels up 3-2. The Twins did get their first base runner since Buxton’s homer in the fifth with a two-out Sandy Leon double. Luis Arraez followed up next but failed to drive him home. Archer’s afternoon would be done after four innings and mark his second straight start of allowing one or fewer walks. Archer last accomplished this feat in June during his June 19 start against the Diamondbacks with no walks, and his June 25 start against the Rockies with one walk. Trevor Megill would come into the game in place of Archer. Carlos Correa ended the 5th after Ohtani walked. Ohtani attempted to steal a base off Megill but Leon made a perfect throw right to Correa, who didn’t even turn his head to tag Ohtani out and keep the game at 3-2, Angels. The game would remain uneventful for the Twins hitters over the next two innings. Buxton provided the only excitement in the top of the sixth with a single and his fifth stolen base of the season. Pitching-wise, things got as ugly as usual. Megill continued to work the sixth, found himself in a jam of two on and two out but averted any damage. Michael Fulmer, who pitched the seventh, found himself in the same jam with one out and gave up an RBI single to Ohtani to make it a 4-2 Angels lead. The Angels came close to scoring another run in the next at-bat but Jorge Polanco threw out the runner advancing home to keep the score at 4-2. The Twins could not follow up Polanco’s smart defensive play with any offense for the rest of the game. Correa managed the only hit for the Twins in the game's final two innings while the Angels took home a win and series victory to finish out the Twins five game road trip What’s Next? The Twins return home Monday for a seven-game homestand. The first series is against the Royals beginning Monday night at 6:40 p.m. Joe Ryan is scheduled to make the start for the Twins against the Royals Kris Bubic. Postgame Interview (Bally Sports Tweets) Coming soon. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

The Twins clubhouse started the day with somber news of Alex Kirilloff being shut down for the season as they looked to complete a series victory over the Blue Jays Sunday. The Twins lost on a controversial overturn as umpires in New York cost the game for them on a bad replay call that had Rocco Baldelli more fired than ever before and Twins fans raging from coast to coast. Box Score SP: Chris Archer 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (79 pitches, 52 strikes (65.8 strike %)) Home Runs: None Top 3 or Bottom 3 WPA: Max Kepler -.303, Nick Gordon -.282, Gio Urshela -.243 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Chris Archer made the start for the Twins. He came into the game with three consecutive starts of three or more walks allowed, Archer was hoping to have better control of the strike zone Sunday afternoon. For his first inning of work, Archer retired the minimum on 15 pitches, 12 strikes. When the time came for the Twins to hit, Jorge Polanco was practically given a free pass to get on base. The Blue Jays opted for a four-man outfield against Polanco, who was hitting lefty against Kevin Gausman. With that, it opened up the entirety of the left side of the infield for Polanco to lace a half-swing single and reach base. Even with greater control of the strike zone, the Blue Jays still made Archer hurt in the second inning as Teoscar Hernandez led off with a single on the first pitch and Bo Bichette followed with an RBI double on the first pitch of his at-bat to make it 1-0 Blue Jays. The Jays wouldn’t score any more runs against Archer in the second but worked him to throw 30 pitches in the inning, only expediting Cole Sands appearance out of the bullpen. The Jays bats would strike again against Archer in the top of the third as Cavan Biggio led off with another double and scored on the next at-bat off a Lourdes Gurriel Jr. RBI single. That would be the only run allowed by Archer in the third as the Jays now led 2-0. As Archer settled down to retire the Blue Jays with no runs or walks allowed through his five innings of work, only Luis Arraez managed to get on base for the Twins after the Blue Jays scored their second run. Both times were on singles but the Twins failed to make contact as easily as the last time they faced Gausman on Sunday, June 5. Archer was done for the afternoon after five innings of work and did not allow any walks in his five innings, making it his first start since June 19 against the Diamondbacks, without allowing any walks. To everyone’s surprise, Sands was not the first arm out of the Twins bullpen to replace Archer on the mound. Instead it was every Twins fan “favorite” Emilio Pagan. Pagan would come out of the sixth earlier than expected due to a shoulder injury. He only allowed one hit, a single to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and worked a 2-2 count to Hernandez before being removed from the game with a right lat cramp. Sands came in to finish the at-bat against Hernandez, and he doubled. Bichette followed with a five-pitch at-bat that ended in a strikeout and kept the Jays lead at 2-0. The Twins were finally able to get a run on the board in the bottom of the eighth as Polanco reached base on his second hit of the game. Two at-bats later, rookie sensation Jose Miranda drove in Polanco, marking at least one RBI in all games against the Blue Jays in this series. Miranda’s RBI made it a 2-1 score. Sands pitched an effective three innings of relief for the Twins and was pulled after totaling 51 pitches and allowing Alejandro Kirk on with a hit and two outs in the top of the ninth. Caleb Thielbar was called in to get the final out and achieved that, keeping it a run one game for the Twins to try and walk-off the Blue Jays for the season. Carlos Correa came in as a pinch hitter for Jake Cave in the bottom of the ninth. Correa reached base, getting clipped by a pitch in the shoulder. Tim Beckham came in as a pinch runner for Correa which brought up another walk-off opportunity for Byron Buxton. Buxton disappointed fans with a three-pitch strikeout, looking at a pitch that went right down the middle from Jordan Romano. Fortunately for Twins fans, Gary Sanchez kept the game alive after Buxton’s strikeout. Sanchez got a single that advanced Beckham to third, giving Arraez a chance to tie the game. And tie the game he did as he laced a single to right field scoring Beckham. Arraez’s game-tying hit made it his 12th three or more hit game for 2022. Polanco followed Arraez with a fielder’s choice groundout with the force at second base. This at least advanced Sanchez to third with runners on the corners, two outs and Max Kepler at the plate. Kepler pulled the ball to the first baseman, sending the game into extras. As the Twins went into extras, Whit Merrifield came in as the Manfred Man on second for the Jays. He advanced to third on a flyout by Santiago Espinal but in the next at-bat, Merrifield once again tried to tag and score on a flyout to left. However, Beckham, playing left field for the second time this season, nailed Merrifield out at home as it was originally called. The call was overturned by umpires in New York based off of Merrfield placing his slide directly into Sanchez's knee. Even as the video showed that Sanchez did allow Merrifield a lane to the plate, the Blue Jays gained a run for a 3-2 lead. This also led to Rocco Baldelli’s most fired-up ejection of his managing career as he asked why the call was overturned due to catcher interference. The Twins got out of the inning without surrendering more runs, but the damage was already done to them from people 1,200 miles away from Target Field. What’s Next? The Twins are off Monday and will head to the Los Angeles area for five games in six days. The first series starts Tuesday against the Dodgers at 9:10 p.m. CT with Joe Ryan scheduled to start for the Twins. Ryan will match up against one of many Dodger lefties, Julio Urias. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

Sometimes you fail to plan, which is not what the Minnesota Twins did this offseason. Sometimes you plan to fail, which certainly could be what the Minnesota Twins did this offseason. Entering the trade deadline period, Minnesota needed to address pitching in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. They also found themselves in the market for catching help, although that was more by circumstance rather than a reflection of their own decisions. No matter what way you look at it, the 26-man roster needed something like four or five additions to truly be considered supplemented. How does that reflect what took place this winter? Every team in baseball has an ample amount of opportunity to spend money. While some organizations are better off than others due to desirability or revenues, no front office bill will ever scratch the surface of what an ownership group can truly afford. On that end, I was told by a front office source during this season that the desire to hit $150 million from a payroll perspective is something that will not likely be touched. That could change as economic standards adjust, but in the foreseeable future, Minnesota will not reach that threshold for an Opening Day roster. Per Spotrac, Minnesota’s current payroll sits at $138 million for the season, or roughly $10 million below what is seen as a non-starting amount. In getting there, they paid handsomely for Carlos Correa ($35.1 million) and brought in Gary Sanchez to replace Mitch Garver. Sonny Gray commands $10.6 million and was acquired for a prospect that the Twins handed a $2.5 million bonus just a year prior. Up against where ownership has given the front office somewhat of a line, that meant value plays had to pan out. The front office gambled on a bullpen largely reflective of their own development. Even without considering the Taylor Rogers trade, that meant big innings would be needed from Jhoan Duran (who was not seen as a lock going into Spring Training), Tyler Duffey, and Caleb Thielbar. The only addition to the relief corps was Joe Smith, a 38-year-old veteran with no velocity making just $2.5 million. On the starting front, behind Gray, it was all bargain bin additions. Dylan Bundy was a bounce-back candidate at $4 million, and Chris Archer was inked to an incentive-laden deal that starts at just $2.75 million. In and of themselves, neither pitcher has been the issue, while both have provided plenty of issues for Rocco Baldelli as a whole. Smartly, the skipper has tried to avoid having any of his back-three pitchers in the rotation see a lineup for the third time. Archer and Bundy have both been bludgeoned as games have gone on, and that’s made for significant bullpen workloads. On the flip side, a taxed relief unit that has largely underperformed has given a constant chicken-or-the-egg situation to navigate through. This all goes back to the situation Minnesota now finds themselves in, and if the plan originally dictated by ownership, was worth it. The front office has to play within the parameters of the budget given to them. That’s always going to present a value proposition scenario in which you attempt to acquire the most amount of return for the least amount of money. Bundy and Archer are a perfect representation of that; so too is Joe Smith. The significant surplus was applied to Correa, but then it was deemed that the well had been tapped. Say the Twins' front office could’ve been given another $10 million during the winter, does that change the level of starting arms they target looking to take work off the plate of the bullpen? Could they have added another reliever or two and passed on Smith being the only reinforcement? Adding at the deadline is a tricky scenario in that you’re likely bringing on more money anyways, and vying with multiple suitors all attempting to acquire the same available talent. I certainly don’t think there’s an argument to be made that the Twins front office failed to plan this year. They didn’t want the slew of injuries, but no one does. If they failed to plan, it was in that the constraints presented by ownership, and maybe not pushed back on by the front office, left them a couple of pieces short to start, and even more when the season drew on. There’s probably never an amount that represents enough spending in the eyes of fans, and that’s really not a fair place to operate a budget from. Considering the actual acquisitions, however, squeezing value from all but the big one clearly didn’t provide enough of an opportunity to withstand the rigors of a long season. View full article