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Nearly all of the top free agents have been signed this offseason, none of them having landed with the Twins. But it’s not for a lack of good contracts. Let’s look at the five best contracts that the Twins missed out on this offseason. Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports There have been some contracts this offseason that the Twins have wisely passed on because of the economics. Many times, free agent contracts are inherent overpays and for a team like the Minnesota Twins, they don’t all make sense. Players like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Aaron Judge are great players but weren’t fits for the Twins. On the other hand, there were plenty of free agent signings this offseason that made me go, “The Twins should’ve definitely made that deal.” Here are my top 5, with the necessary caveat that the Twins might not have gotten these players by matching the exact contract that they signed for. The Twins may have needed to go 5% above what they were signed for in order to seal the deal, but either way these were contracts that the Twins missed out on (in no particular order). 1. Carlos Rodón - 6 years, $162M Heading into the offseason, many Twins fans put Rodón at the top of their free agency wish lists. Rodón represented the ace pitcher that the Twins have been searching for since Johan Santana, and because of previous health trouble, he might sign for a reasonable contract that even the Twins could afford. Sure enough, Rodón signed for a more-than-reasonable 6 year, $162M with an AAV of $27M. Certainly a fair price for an ace the caliber of Rodón who provided $49.6M in value for the White Sox in 2022. 2. Dansby Swanson - 7 years, $177M Following the opt-out of Carlos Correa, finding a replacement shortstop was the top priority for the Twins coming into the offseason. In addition, this was one of the deepest free agent shortstop classes that we had ever seen. With the high caliber of shortstops, though, came some extravagant contracts. For my money the best shortstop contract handed this offseason was the 7 year, $177M deal handed out to Dansby Swanson. While Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa signed for double digit years, Swanson signed for a modest seven years at an AAV of just $25M. 3. Chris Bassitt - 3 years, $63M While Carlos Rodón represented an ace that the Twins could have signed in free agency, we do know that the Falvey/Levine regime doesn’t like to give long contracts to starting pitchers. Enter Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is a solid number two pitcher who has drastically improved in his age 32 and age 33 seasons the past two years. Bassitt signed for a reasonable $63M on a short-term deal of just three years. Something the Twins definitely should have been in on. 4. Willson Contreras - 5 years, $87.5M The biggest free agent signing that the Twins have made this offseason was for catcher Christian Vázquez on a three-year, $30M deal. While a reasonable signing, the deal that Willson Contreras signed with the St. Louis Cardinals was the best contract signed this offseason for a catcher. A $17.5M AAV for a 30-year-old catcher who is top-three at his position is more than reasonable. Contreras definitely was interested in signing with St. Louis, but with how low the payroll is, the Twins certainly could have gone above St. Louis’s offer and it still would have been a sound signing. 5. Noah Syndergaard - 1 year, $13M As the old adage goes, you can never have too many starting pitchers, and another solid signing for the Twins this offseason would have been a one year deal for Noah Syndergaard. Since his injuries, Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominant self, but he’s still just 30-years-old and he was an above-average pitcher last offseason. Syndergaard feels like a guy that the Twins could tweak and bring him back closer to his pre-injury status. And if not? It’s a one year deal and no harm done. Which of the above deals do you think the Twins most missed out on? Were there any other deals that weren’t mentioned? Leave a comment and start the conversation. View full article

The Twins got their catcher, but that development was overshadowed days later when they missed out on their shortstop and top offseason target. The front office has a sizable cash reserve but few remaining paths to spend it. They've buoyed their floor but failed to raise their ceiling in any way. Where do we go from here? Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa Signs Mega-Deal with San Francisco Giants Sadly, the biggest headline of the Minnesota Twins offseason thus far has been their heartbreak: Correa, whom the team pursued with a level of intention and aggressiveness that far surpasses any free agent target in franchise history, opted for the San Francisco Giants. Thirteen years, $350 million. Whew. In the end, despite pushing themselves to (or past) their limit, the Twins ultimately fell vastly short of the big-market Giants, who made Correa the second highest-paid free agent in MLB history. It was a level the Twins were never going to realistically reach. Although they made an adamant effort and were, by all accounts, the runner-up for Correa, they came nowhere near matching the giant offer. Now the front office must regroup and figure out what's next. High-end options have dwindled and impact trade options are limited. On the bright side, they do have the luxury of aiming basically wherever they please in terms of making upgrades, because the Twins checked off their last essential need from the shopping the list earlier in the week by signing a new catcher. Twins Sign Christian Vazquez to Three-Year Deal The front office was able to confidently address its top non-Correa priority of the offseason: signing a catcher who can not only share time with Ryan Jeffers at catcher, but take over as the lead dog if needed. On Monday we learned that the Twins agreed to terms with Vazquez on a three-year deal worth $30 million. While it barely registers in comparison to the mammoth $285 million offer to Correa, Vazquez's new contract amazingly ranks as the third-largest signed by any free agent under this front office. While certainly not to be confused with a viable "big splash of the offseason," the Vazquez signing is a bold and assertive one from the front office. He's no star, but he's a respected, reliable, experienced backstop who offers tremendous stability at a position that had little, and adds credibility to Minnesota's position player unit. That's all well and good, but a downtrodden fan base needs more than a solid catcher who fills a need. The Twins need a signature move or two to salvage this wayward offseason. Unfortunately, one of the few remaining star-caliber assets on the market was snatched up on Thursday night. Yankees Reel in Carlos Rodon on Six-Year Contract It's unclear how hard they tried, but Minnesota's hopes of acquiring a frontline starter from free agency have officially gone kaput. The last ace-caliber arm is now off the board after Rodon agreed to a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees. I'll be honest: I'd want no part of that deal. As great as he's been over the past couple seasons, Rodon is an extremely volatile property and the idea of entering a six-year guaranteed pact with those kinds of AAVs makes me all kinda nervous. If they're gonna spend that kind of money on a starting pitcher it shouldn't be out of leveraged desperation. Still, it would've been a major statement move, and now there aren't many such opportunities for one. In fact, on the free agent market, there's only one. Twins Turn Their Attention to Dansby Swanson. Then What? The Twins have been connected via rumors to Swanson but I always suspected it to be a negotiating ploy to gain leverage in Correa talks. My skepticism mainly stems from the fact that he seems like the type of high-risk long-term investment this front office avidly avoids. However, from talking to a few trusted people, I do get the sense the Twins are legitimate in their pursuit, contradicting a Jon Heyman report that they "appear to be regrouping after losing out on Carlos Correa, so Swanson’s likely out." I can't say I'm at all confident they'll sign the former Braves shortstop, but I do believe they're going to give a real shot. They'll face stiff competition because they're not the only club that missed out on numerous top targets and has money left to burn. Should they miss out on Swanson, it'll be interesting to see if the Twins can find a way to spend their way back to the 2022 threshold. Or if they even care to do so. Roster and Payroll Projection: v3 The specific breakdown of Vazquez's $30 million deal haven't been revealed yet, to my knowledge. But assuming it's split evenly at $10 million/year, his addition pushes the projected 2023 payroll up above 100 mil by just a hair. Unless the Twins can pull a stunner and sign Swanson, or pull a rabbit out of their hat with a big trade, it's going be a dreary and bleak holiday for baseball fans in Minnesota, who've had to sit idly by while watching everyone else open up their awesome presents. New uniforms and Christian Vazquez ain't gonna cut it. The front office needs to step up and take action unless they want a large portion of their followers to simply check out. View full article

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are more than a half-dozen seasons into their tenure as the heads of Minnesota’s front office. We’ve begun to see some pattern in how they acquire talent, and as the expectations for competition and payroll grow, it’s worth wondering why they prefer to operate in a certain way. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Over the years, and immediately when hired, two words that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine used consistently were “creative” and “collaborative.” The duo know they are operating a mid-market team, and while the Pohlad family has an immense fortune, there’s still a level of business savvy that goes into spending on a baseball team. The goal in hiring Falvey specifically was to create a forward-thinking developmental machine that churned out talent along the lines of his former employer, the Cleveland Guardians. Needing to be more competitive on the pitching front, an area in which considerable money is often spent, developing talent is a surefire way to control spending and advance the roster. A question has presented itself, however. Why are the Twins seemingly less interested in spending money than they are player capital? Just a season ago, owners fought tooth and nail to stifle the earnings of major-league talent. There has never been a point in which minor-league talent was fairly compensated, and despite growing revenues the slices of the pie for players and owners has not been in harmony. One such reason that happens is due to the team control placed on a player for the better part of their most productive seasons as an athlete. Unlike most other professional sports, the way team control works carries a substantial monetary value. It is in that understanding where it seems odd a team like the Twins would be so willing to make deals rather than to open the pocketbook. Spencer Steer is gone. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is gone. Chase Petty is gone. The Twins have taken a good chunk of their top prospects and moved them to acquire big-league talent. There’s nothing wrong with those moves in and of themselves, but they seem equally active in free agency discussions as they do the trade market. Thus far, trades have all but stalled out this offseason. The focus for most front offices has been to pay for talent. Rather than giving away controllable players to the opposition, front offices have spent dollars they will undoubtedly recoup in revenue, and make more as they’ve just used them to acquire an asset. Minnesota should be pushing toward something like a $160 million in Opening Day payroll for 2023, and yet all of the dollars have been held close to their chest. When targeting talents like Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodon, or Christian Vazquez as has been reported, Minnesota has not yet made enough of an offer to generate a Yes. If that is due, in part, because a secondary option is seen as an ok outcome, it’s a gross misuse of the funds available to them. Whether a limit by the Pohlad family is in place or not, there should never be a time in which free agency is seen as a less than desirable avenue. There’s no limit to the amount of money a Major League franchise will continue to be worth. Revenues skyrocket and will surpass $11 billion for Major League Baseball this season. Each team will see over $100 million in their pockets before even selling a ticket this season. That not being used to the fullest capacity, and instead piecing out players that can keep payroll down and develop within a system seems like a misstep. Minnesota’s front office has taken a cautious approach more often than not. Even when Correa was signed, it was only after a player-friendly deal was presented to the team by agent Scott Boras. It’s beyond time that attacking the free agent market with a wad of cash becomes a bigger part of the practice, and at some point, it’d be great to retain more of what’s already in the system for future use. View full article

The Twins lost out on Carlos Correa, so the club needs a backup plan to complete the 2023 roster. Here are four pivots the team can make following Correa's departure. Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota made contract offers to Carlos Correa that were well above anything the club had previously offered a free agent. Correa signed for 13 years and $350 million, an average annual value of $27 million. For Correa and his agent Scott Boras, it was important for Correa to sign the largest contract for a shortstop in baseball history. Reports had the Twins with a higher AAV but fewer years and a lower total amount. Fans can be upset about the team not going higher, but the team needs to have a contingency plan, and here are four pivots for the Twins. Pivot 1: Sign Dansby Swanson When the offseason started, there were four All-Star caliber shortstops on the market. Correa became the third player to sign, leaving Dansby Swanson as the last man standing. Unfortunately, many teams are looking for an upgrade at shortstop, so the demand for Swanson has increased. Out of the other shortstops, Xander Bogaerts signed the smallest deal at 11 years and $280 million. Minnesota offered Correa more than that amount, so the team could pivot and offer Swanson a similar deal to Bogaerts. There have already been meetings between Swanson and the Twins, which can help with the initial negotiations. Swanson and Correa are very different players, and the Twins might want to pivot to one of the other options below. Pivot 2: Trade for a Shortstop The Twins already traded for one shortstop this winter when the club acquired Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds. Farmer has served as the Reds' shortstop over the last two seasons while hitting .259/.316/.400 (.716) with an 89 OPS+. There are plenty of other trade targets that could be available this winter. Cleveland's Ahmed Rosario is one year away from free agency and can provide the Twins a bridge to Royce Lewis. The Yankees may be willing to part with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was with the Twins shortly last spring. Milwaukee has tough decisions with their core players, so the club might be willing to deal with someone like Willy Adames. At the trade deadline, the Twins made multiple moves that took pieces away from the farm system. Because of this, the team might not be as willing to part with prospects to acquire a shortstop. Pivot 3: Spend on Starting Pitching Minnesota has question marks in the starting rotation, so adding a playoff-caliber starter can help the team. Carlos Rodon was considered the top free-agent starting pitcher, and he is still available. However, reports are that he is looking for at least six years, which is a significant amount for a player with his injury history. It also seems unlikely for the Twins' front office to sign any pitcher to that contract length. They had the opportunity with Jose Berrios and decided it was better to trade him than sign him long-term. Behind Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi is the next-best free-agent starter, as he had a 3.87 ERA in 109 1/3 innings last season. Michael Wacha is another free-agent option after pitching more than 124 innings in the past three full seasons. Those secondary names aren't as intriguing, so the Twins should stick with internal options. Pivot 4: Trade for Starting Pitching Multiple Minnesota players have heard their names swirling in the rumor mill, including Max Kepler and Luis Arraez. One trade target is Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins. In 2022, he pitched 180 innings with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He posted a 174 to 53 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 108 ERA+. Lopez was arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2022, so his earliest free agency is 2025. Other possible trade targets include Cleveland's Shane Bieber, San Diego's Blake Snell, Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow, and Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes. Some players would require a hefty prospect package, including some of the team's top prospects. The Twins need to move quickly now that Correa has made his decision. Which pivot do you feel is the best move for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

When the Minnesota Twins transitioned from Terry Ryan to Derek Falvey in the front office, it was an ushering in of change. Falvey came from the Cleveland Guardians and a more new-school way of doing things. We have now seen enough with the Twins to understand a repetitive process, and it again may be time to challenge that. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey’s hiring was largely celebrated through the lens of Cleveland’s pitching pipeline that he helped to develop. The hope was that the Twins could see a similar level of success. Thad Levine was brought along as the general manager. Thus far, we’ve seen a few instances of that but more needs to be done. On the free agent front, we’ve watched the tandem spend to franchise-record payrolls over each of the past two seasons. It’s beyond nice to see Minnesota raising that water level, and for a team that should unquestionably remain near league average, the top has to continue going up. After being around $140 million for 2022, a push to $160 million seems like a reasonable request in 2023. A 17% increase makes sense for a team whose attendance was low in 2022 despite being in first place through most of August. The problem lies in how they get there. Over the past few offseasons, the Twins have preached patience. Falvey and Levine have said all of the right things and then waited out the market. They did so when pivoting to Josh Donaldson after whiffing on Zack Wheeler. They did so in grabbing Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison as spring training kicked off. They even did so last year when shortstop options were gone, and yet Carlos Correa landed in their lap. It now may be time they use the talent to dictate the budget. In waiting for players to agree to their offers, it seems as though the front office is working backwards from an agreed upon amount (as all MLB teams do). This is understandable when ownership likely throws out a number they initially feel comfortable with budgeting. Although Jim Pohlad is no longer the ownership face of the Twins, there will likely not be a substantial financial change with Joe Pohlad in charge. That said, Falvey has always reiterated they have the full support of the front office, and are unafraid to have conversations about spending dollars where it makes sense. That continues to fall on deaf ears when the Twins are left with no opportunities to push the pockets. While Correa and Carlos Rodon are the only premier talents left on the market, Minnesota has a substantial amount of dollars yet to allocate simply to reach last season’s thresholds. By waiting to see if he accepts whatever they have presented, the Twins also are leaving the door open for another team to surpass what may not be their best effort. Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Jacob deGrom have all already signed. The likelihood a free agent is waiting to bleed out every last drop isn’t high (although that is what Scott Boras is known for any typically secures for his clients), but rather they are looking to have their match met. If the Twins operated from a place of talent or targets first, getting Correa done with a $35-40 million average annual value over whatever amount of years would then give them the baseline as to what they have left. Instead of waiting for the acceptance of what’s out there, talent worthy of dollars eventually becomes non-existent. Minnesota wouldn’t be well positioned to go sign Correa and Rodon for a combined average annual value of $70 million, but if they did the roster could be filled out from that point. Maybe there’s conversations that follow and requests for additional funds to round out the roster, or a pitch is made that spending could help to increase interest that resulted in an attendance lower than anything we’ve seen since the Metrodome. This is a strategy we have not seen this front office employ. Instead it has been wait and see, and while that worked once in landing a big fish like Correa, it has often left hefty pockets with only leftovers to spend it on. Pushing the budget up from the bottom, rather than subtracting from the top, could help to provide a more clear direction on what way the 26-man is constructed for Rocco Baldelli. View full article

While the chief focus of the Minnesota Twins offseason has been that of Carlos Correa, a home run of a winter would include another Carlos as well. With the Twins having leapt into the pool with some sharks last offseason, they remain well positioned for Carlos Rodon as well. Of course there are more than a couple of teams interested in the former Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants starter, but the Twins appear among those squarely in the mix. How likely are they to reel in Carlos Rodon? Image courtesy of Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports As Nick Nelson noted yesterday, the Twins pursuit of Carlos Correa remains their top focus. They are a finalist in that race, and bringing back their superstar shortstop on a long term deal would be a great get. What Buster Olney did note a few days ago is that the New York Yankees appear up to something big. That came on the heels of the San Diego Padres being a surprise landing spot for Xander Bogaerts. New York would seem an odd fit for Correa given their top prospects in Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza are both shortstops. Maybe they seem some flexibility in trying to deal for the currently suspended Fernando Tatis Jr., or maybe it’s Rodon they’re focused on. When it comes to Carlos Rodon, Heyman notes that the competition appears to start with the Giants and Yankees. New York is looking to add another pitcher and has yet to truly spend money. The Giants missed on Aaron Judge despite a massive offer, and have plenty of money to spend as well. He does go on to say that the Twins have been linked and notes their desire for a strong starting addition. With regards to Rodon, he would represent a clear upgrade in the starting rotation. All offseason the hope for Minnesota has been that they acquire a starting pitcher with Sonny Gray being the threshold for a floor. Tyler Mahle may have the chops to be an eventual frontline starter, and Joe Ryan has emerged into a nice piece. We have yet to see what Kenta Maeda looks like following Tommy John surgery, and the arms behind him including Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson should be viewed as depth. Right now it appears that the Twins front office is largely in a wait and see mode with their next move. They certainly would ink Christian Vasquez to a deal right now if he was ready to move, but the bigger move of Correa has their dollars somewhat hamstrung. Correa and Rodon are still both weighing their options, but it would be beneficial for Minnesota to have an idea of what’s next. The free agent landscape gets pretty thin after Rodon when it comes to starting pitchers. Chris Bassitt had a solid year, and there’s also Nathan Eovaldi virtually on par with him. Behind that you’re looking at the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea while trying to convince yourself that any of them are true upgrades. Ultimately the Twins can’t afford to be left out in the cold. Even a trade for someone like Pablo Lopez would leave a significant amount of dollars unspent, and aside from simply throwing money at players to round out the roster, there may not be the level of talent to reach the monetary thresholds they should realistically be at for 2023. The Twins remain in on both of the Carlos’ and signing either would represent a new high water level for a franchise record free agent deal. Both would be otherworldly, and while neither of those outcomes are likely, they at least seem plausible. View full article

The Minnesota Twins remain engaged on all fronts this offseason, and while they didn’t make a move at the Winter Meetings, plenty of work was done. Knowing they want to bring back shortstop Carlos Correa, they have also keyed in on several pitchers. One of those is Miami Marlins hurler Pablo Lopez. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this week I reported that the Twins were in discussions with the Marlins regarding a trade that focused on Pablo Lopez. While Miami has taken Sandy Alcantara off of the table, they are definitely willing to move Lopez. According to multiple sources, there have been a handful of names discussed and any trade doesn’t appear to be trending toward a 1-for-1 swap. Without going too deep into the rabbit hole of what may materialize, the biggest piece from the Twins has consistently been focused on Luis Arraez. Miami could use hitting help, and the American League batting champ would fit that bill. Also this week, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported that Arraez is certainly available for the right price. Minnesota has a very clear idea of what that is. Before getting into what Lopez brings to the table, it’s worth considering what the Twins would be giving up in Arraez. At this point he’s a proven commodity that has also very-likely hit his ceiling. That’s not to say the production won’t continue, but his tools don’t project to unveil some new skill we haven’t already seen. He’s a limited defender who is best served not being on his feet every day. At the plate, he’s nearly impossible to strike out, and he’ll generate a high average while showing the occasional pop. All of that is a very valuable player. It certainly will not get anything near a number one or an ace-type pitcher. There are real questions about how Arraez’s knees will hold up as he ages. Each of the past two seasons he has had injury issues, and he limped towards the finish line in 2022 while battling the nagging injury. He’s a fine, albeit odd, fit at first base. Without much power, he loses significant value if the average ever drops down into the .280 range, and while his on-base prowess will always matter, he doesn’t slug enough to profile as a traditional corner infielder. Where does that leave the Marlins? Well, at Pablo Lopez. The Twins goal for the rotation should be to find someone at the level of Sonny Gray or better. Whether you believe Lopez is that guy or not is debatable, but there’s reasons to suggest he is. Lopez owns a 3.52 ERA the past three seasons, and is coming off a year in which he threw 180 innings. His 3.48 FIP suggests there’s no real worry for regression, and he’s been a guy who can average more than a strikeout per inning pitched. Lopez possesses mid-90’s velocity which should continue to be workable for a guy that is only 26 years old, and his changeup has often proven to be a significant weapon. He posted a career best 12.7% whiff rate last season, and gave up hard contact a career-low 27.5% of the time. Steamer projections have him at a 3.74 ERA and a 2.8 fWAR for 2023, which would be a repeat of his fWAR this season and would’ve been Minnesota’s pitching leader. It’s not possible to acquire Lopez in a one-for-one swap with Arraez, and with starting pitching so expensive, having the arm under team control through 2024 would be a big get. It remains to be seen if any version of this deal crosses the finish line, but as much as Minnesota would like Carlos Rodon, other avenues may need to be explored. View full article

No free agents landed a splash contract with the Twins during the Winter Meetings. Is one of those contracts still to come soon for the Twins following the conclusion of the Winter Meetings? Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel, USA Today Sports The 2022 Winter Meetings have concluded in San Diego without any Major League transactions for the Minnesota Twins. While the Twins made little noise, their plans have remained intact because of other teams' free-agent acquisitions. Here are the best moves the Twins can make in free agency following the Winter Meetings. 1. Resign Carlos Correa At this point, it is practically beating a dead horse to stress how important for the Twins to bring back Carlos Correa. Fortunately for the Twins, he is still on the market and there are fewer teams to compete with the Philadelphia Phillies signing Trea Turner and the San Diego Padres signing Xander Bogaerts. Now the biggest challenge for the Twins is enticing Correa and super-agent Scott Boras with an offer, plus incentives, that could do better than the current favorites to sign him, the San Francisco Giants. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported the Giants have now emerged as the favorites to sign Correa following the Winter Meetings. Slusser writes that the Giants have the incentive to give out a deal to Correa that exceeds Trea Turner’s 11-year, $300 million deal with the Phillies. However, with the Padres signing Bogaerts, it makes their chances at the postseason harder within the NL West. Fellow Twins Daily writer Nash Walker pointed out in a tweet, that between the Twins, Giants, and even the Cubs. Correa’s best chances of making the postseason in 2023 may be back in Minnesota based on division strength. The urgency to return to October baseball for Correa could be a major selling factor for the Twins to resign him, but some other big moves may need to correspond with such an offer. 2. Pursuing Rodon and Bassitt The starting pitching market in free agency has shortened really quickly after the Winter Meetings. The best remaining starter is objectively Carlos Rodon and while the Twins have been linked as a team interested in signing him, there have been no reports of the team meeting with Rodon. With lower-end pitchers such as Kyle Gibson, Matthew Boyd, and Mike Clevinger receiving $10-12 million on one-year deals. Rodon came out asking for a contract worth $30-35 million per season over six or more seasons. The demand from Rodon surpasses those that the Twins were rumored to give to Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler in recent years. However, the Twins are already willing to spend much, much more on Correa but likely over a longer period of time. Still, if they miss out on Correa, Rodon would be the best remaining free agent for the Twins to sign if he’s still there. In the case that Correa does resign with the Twins, Rodon is likely off the table for budgetary reasons. In that case, former Met Chris Bassitt may be the next best choice to help bolster the Twins rotation. Bassitt is seeking a four-year deal but has not had a set annual price for a contract. He did decline a $19 million mutual option for 2023. Given the amount of money ($72 million) his former teammate Taijuan Walker has received in his four-year deal, Bassitt will likely want at an equivalent four-year, $72 million deal. . Bassitt turns 34 in February and will be 37 by the end of any four-year deal. But his immediate value comes from what he can bring to an already deep group of rotation options would certainly make the Twins better come Opening Day. 3. Sign Christian Vazquez Conversations have happened between the Twins' front office and reigning World Series champ Christian Vazquez and as of this week, an offer has been extended to Vazquez from the Twins as reported by Darren Wolfson of KSTP. The full details of the offer are not currently known but Vazquez would certainly strengthen platoon options at catcher between him and Ryan Jeffers. With Wilson Contreras off to St. Louis and the availability of A's backstop Sean Murphy currently unknown, Vazquez is the best option to help behind the plate. Even if Vazquez declines an offer from Minnesota, a good backup option to sign at catching might be Omar Narvaez. While Narvaez’s defense is not as strong as Vazquez, he still swings a strong bat from the left side of the plate. The conclusion of the Winter Meetings has not slowed down signings as the Mets picked up two big names in Brandon Nimmo and David Robertson on Thursday night. The players the Twins want may not remain available in a week's time. Their best hope is to set new franchise records in contract length and spending with these remaining players they hope to acquire. View full article

There were only a handful of transactions on Monday as baseball's annual Winter Meetings began in San Diego. However, a couple of interesting moves and rumors may help signal the Twins direction. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports The Winter Meetings are upon us. While lots of roster cleanup has happened since the World Series ended about a month ago, the offseason really begins with these meetings. To this point, a couple of the top free agent starting pitchers have signed huge deals while several veteran, fifth starter types have signed with new teams. One of the Big Four shortstops has signed. Aaron Judge may or may not show up in San Diego on Tuesday after watching Tom Brady and the Buccaneers get a final-minute win in Tampa. Will he sign? Will he just meet with people? Could he possibly get 10 years and $400 million? Is that really possible? Here are a few themes that I thought of on Day 1 of the Winter Meetings: The Twins Aren't (and Shoudn't) Sign Carlos Rodon The Twins clearly want to add a starting pitcher, a veteran who is as good or better than Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle. Carlos Rodon fits that category and the Twins have certainly shown interest in the former White Sox southpaw. So why won't he sign with the Twins? Why? Let me count the ways. First, Jacob deGrom inexplicably got a five-year deal with the Rangers for $185 million despite missing more than half of his starts the past two seasons. That said, if he's healthy, he is baseball's best pitcher. On Sunday, news broke that Justin Verlander was signing with the Mets for two years and $86 million. The Twins weren't going to be in on either of them. However, certainly in part due to those contracts and especially the length of deGrom's deal, Carlos Rodon is reported to be looking for six or more years and $30-35 million per season. He's right to ask for it, and he will likely get it. The fact that there are reportedly at least eight teams that have had conversations with Rodon's team (including the Twins), the number will jump up. So are Jose Quintana and Andrew Heaney in play for the Twins? Maybe. It was reported on Monday night that Heaney has several three year deals on the table, so now he's looking for four years. You hate to see it, but maybe @Matt Braun was correct. Andrew Heaney may just be the best the Twins can do, and I personally don't think that's a bad thing. We have written for months that the Twins should no longer be signing fifth starter types. And as we have seen this offseason, the money veteran fifth starters are getting is a bit silly. Mike Clevinger signed with the White Sox for $12 million guaranteed. Matthew Boyd somehow got $10 million to return to the Tigers. And over the weekend, former Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson got $10 million from the Orioles. With all that in mind, I'll still say that the Twins would be wise to keep focusing on pitcher development. Instead of signing those guys (like Archer, Bundy, Happ, Shoemaker and many more before that), they should give guys like Louie Varland, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Cole Sands, Jordan Balazovic and others. All-Rise... So, how are the Twins going to go about getting a high-quality, ace-like starting pitcher? Well, Twins fans won't want to hear it, but first thing on Monday morning, Dan Hayes posted an article indicating that Luis Arraez's name has been discussed in trade talks for pitching. Arraez is coming off of a(nother) breakout season. He was an All Star, won his first batting title, won a Silver Slugger and received MVP votes. But again, if we are talking about acquiring a pitcher who would jump right into the top spot in the Twins rotation, they're going to have to give up a painful amount. Also of note, this is approximately the third straight offseason where the Twins have been rumored to be willing to trade Arraez, and as you are fully aware, they are yet to do it. Catching Up... The Twins are reportedly looking for a catcher who can share time with Ryan Jeffers who is currently the lone catcher on the Twins 40-man roster. Two tidbits on that search from Day 1 of the Winter Meetings include: Ken Rosenthal reported that the Twins are one of six teams who that are "in on" Christian Vasquez. The long-time Red Sox backstop was traded to the Astros at the trade deadline and teamed with Martin Maldonado. There were rumors circulating that A's catcher Sean Murphy might be traded early in the Winter Meetings. It hasn't happened yet. Frankly, it sounds like there are so many teams in on Murphy that the cost probably doesn't make any sense for the Twins. Correa Stuff The A-talker of the week for Twins fans is Carlos Correa. Will the Twins be able to bring him back? This is going to be interesting. On Monday, the Phillies grabbed Trea Turner in a deal that will guarantee him $300 million over the next 11 seasons. Why is that noteworthy to Twins fans? Because most evaluators would put Turner and Correa very close to each other in terms of value so this is a good deal to kind of establish a market for Correa. Correa is a year younger than Turner, so is it possible that he could get a 12 year deal, maybe even 13 years? And how much beyond $300 million will Scott Boras help Correa attain. In his press conference on Monday, manager Rocco Baldelli said that he believes that the Twins are well positioned to bring back Correa. He noted that he had a dinner with Correa (and also Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Rodon, all Boras clients) that was very nice. data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== Darren Wolfson found out that the Twins are willing to offer 10-year deals and include multiple opt-outs. The Twins may have to get creative to make it work, but potentially adding the extra years also brings down the AAV (Average Annual Value). There is a lot of competition. The Cubs are certainly interested, and they reportedly had a meeting with Correa on Monday. There were also indications that the Cubs might try to sign two of the Big Four (3 remaining) shortstops. After losing Turner, the Dodgers likely will want a shortstop. Would the Dodgers bring in Correa after their players and fans, made him the lead target of their post-2017 World Series angst? The Cardinals are rumored to be pursuing Dansby Swanson. If he signed elsewhere, would Atlanta really be willing to go with Vaughn Grissom at shortstop? In reality, it seems to be that if the San Francisco Giants don't sign Aaron Judge, they'll throw all their eggs into the Correa basket. If Judge signs with the Yankees, I do believe that the Twins have at least a real opportunity to bring back Correa. To be honest, this is all on Correa's timeline. He's the lead player available at shortstop and he can play the proverbial field, maybe even encouraged to do so by Boras. Do the Twins need to establish a deadline for Correa before moving on to Bogaerts or another option? Probably not since Boras Agency represents both. And the Twins met with Carlos Correa according to a 2 am Jon Heyman tweet. Draft Lottery For the first time in baseball history, MLB will have a Draft Lottery and tonight at 7:30 on MLB Network, we will find out if the Twins will be able to move up in the draft. The NBA has done this for a long time. The 18 teams that did not get into the playoffs will all have a chance to move up to the #1 spot in the draft. However, the worse the team's record, the less likely they get the top pick. In an attempt to have teams not intentionally tank for the worst record, the bottom three teams will each have a 16.5% chance of getting the top pick. The Twins odds of jumping to the #1 spot is just 0.9% Yes, I'm saying there is a chance! The lottery will determine the top six picks of the 2023 draft. Can the Twins jump into the Top 6, or will they stay at the #13 pick? Keep up with Twins-related rumors at our Twins Rumors page here. View full article

For the umpteenth time in Twins history, the beginning of free agency opens up one dominating question: will the Twins acquire a top-tier starting pitcher? Cavemen have etched the question on walls, and if one listens closely enough, the stars cry out the same chorus, lamenting Minnesota’s lack of elite starters. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have yet to answer with an unquestionable “yes.” Kenta Maeda was close, but he disappointed in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery; Sonny Gray nearly reached the “elite” platform, but nicks and bruises have limited him to a solidly secondary tier; Tyler Mahle faltered before earning a chance to prove himself. In each case, the pitcher flashed potential, perhaps hinting that an elite starter existed underneath their skin, but none have yet fulfilled that potential. The issue nags on. Minnesota’s starting rotation looks good enough if you don’t squint too hard and if someone turns off the injury setting, but it’s not a squad that compares favorably to the collection of arms elite teams like the Astros can boast. Part of the problem is development; the Twins have lagged behind the best teams in turning their homegrown draft picks into feared arms, and they have not cracked the code in revealing the true potential of other teams’ perpetual under-performers. They tried with Chris Paddack—perhaps they almost succeeded—but his elbow broke again, and the Twins could only claim a failed gamble. With the exception of Ryan Pressly, they haven’t become a victim of pitching pick-pocketing, but their best heist to date is Joe Ryan. As for those draft picks, José Berríos pitched some of the finest seasons this side of Johan Santana, but he never embraced his ace potential, instead finding respectable success as an inconsistent yet talented #2. No other draft pick compares to him. A flurry of Terry Ryan prospects—most notably Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Adalberto Mejía—tried and failed to succeed; Twins pitchers drafted by the new regime have yet to impact the franchise. The team turned to free agency. Michael Pineda gave Minnesota a few quality years, but the team has primarily followed a distinct pattern of whiffing on the big names—most notably Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler—while signing cheap starters who performed like cheap starters. Maybe one could claim 2019 Martín Pérez as a win, but doing so proves how fruitless the Twins have been with starters in free agency under Derek Falvey; a playoff team needs more than a lopsided 1.9 fWAR season from a pitcher who didn’t take the mound in the postseason that year. Until the Twins break the mold, Andrew Heaney is the best they can do. Heaney is a perfect Twin: a troubled starter with great stuff and a devastating penchant for giving up jackhammer levels of loud contact. Heaney finally realized his strikeout potential in 2022, punching out 35.5% of hitters in a dominating season that culminated in a 3.10 ERA, even better peripherals, and just 14 starts due to a variety of health problems. Injuries wilted his excellence, and the Dodgers could only squeeze six innings out of Heaney in two outings, limiting him to just 1.1 fWAR despite the great pitching. In the current free agent context—one Nick Nelson noted could be especially troublesome for a team looking for an ace—the Twins’ likely option will be praying for Heaney’s health. They could sign Carlos Rodón, but their history says they won’t do that. If—probably, when—the best arms sign elsewhere, Minnesota will look at Heaney, talk themselves into his incredible upside, and bet against reason that this is the year he finally stays healthy. View full article

Spending big on free agent pitchers is a high-wire act by nature, as it involves making exorbitant commitments to aging arms that are often amid temporary peaks in value. It is, needless to say, a pursuit the Minnesota Twins have largely opted to avoid – much to the lament of many fans. This offseason, they may have little choice but to set their scruples aside and overspend on the boom-or-bust frontline starter they need. Exciting, but precarious. Image courtesy of Image courtesy of Stan Szeto, USA Today When you look at data around aging curves for major-league pitchers, it matches up to what you'd expect: as a group, they are most effective between the ages of roughly 24 to 28 before inevitably experiencing decline at varying scales. This makes sense, of course. As pitchers get older, their innings mount, their bodies wear down, and the league gets wise to all of their tricks. We see the cycle play out time and time again. Sure, there are some pitchers who manage to evade the ravages of age, but they are rare and beyond prized. For every Jacob deGrom, who keeps chugging along into his mid-30s, or even every Justin Verlander, who's on top of his game at age 40, there are many examples of fleeting greatness. Sometimes the drop-off is quite sudden. Madison Bumgarner was one of the game's greats throughout his 20s as a Giant but completely unraveled at age 30 after signing with Arizona. Hyun-Jin Ryu had a brief run of pure excellence for the Dodgers but has wilted in his mid-30s in Toronto. The Twins have been thankful to avoid free agent landmines like these – pitchers who entered the market with relatively high stocks and cashed in, only to fall victim to the curve, leaving their new clubs in a tough spot with lingering implications. (The D-backs owe Bumgarner $23 million next year coming off a 4.88 ERA; the Blue Jays owe Ryu $20 million after he posted a 5.67 ERA in 27 innings.) Slam-dunk pitchers like deGrom and Verlander do pop up in free agency, but because of their rarity they have their pick of big-market titans who can outflex the field. These guys are simply out of range for the Twins, and most other teams. The more common and accessible free agents are those like Bumgarner and Ryu types: pitchers in the early stage of the aging curve's declining trendline, looking to get paid off what they did in their prime. Robbie Ray is a perfectly good example from one year ago. He was the definition of a buy-high candidate, coming off a breakout age-29 season where he won the Cy Young while leading the league in ERA and strikeouts. The Mariners bought high with a $115 million contract that was eclipsed only Max Scherzer's $130 million deal with the Mets. During his first year in Seattle, Ray was ... meh. Certainly not a disaster, but a shining example of the dangers in overpaying for assets that are likely to depreciate quickly. Ray posted a 3.71 ERA, 4.16 FIP, and 1.8 fWAR in 189 innings. He was an average-ish mid-rotation starter making $21 million, and slated to make $44 million over the next two years. What's more, Ray's player-friendly contract includes an opt-out after 2024, meaning that if his performance continues to trend this way, Seattle will owe him another $50 million for his age 33 and 34 seasons. But if he returns to form, he can re-enter the market after two more years. Seattle's already been robbed of much of this deal's upside due to Ray's mediocre first season. The fact that Ray procured such a favorable contract coming off his only great season speaks to the leverage higher-end free agent pitchers enjoy during Hot Stove negotiations. Which brings our attention to the focus of today's discussion: Carlos Rodón. The parallels between Ray's situation last year and Rodón's this year are unmissable. Both are left-handers entering the market at age 30, coming off career seasons. Both had extremely suspect track records prior to their star turns, which came during short-term deals for that reason. The uncertainties shrouding these two players weren't of the same exact ilk – Ray's more performance-based, Rodón's more health-related – but both players carried obvious and notable risk. Last offseason, Ray wasn't the best free agent starter. Not in a class that featured future Hall of Famers like Scherzer, Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw. But he was the arguably the best starter who felt realistically available to mid-market teams like Seattle or Minnesota. And this year Rodón is in a similar position, albeit with sparser competition at the top tier. (Chris Bassitt is a far cry from Kevin Gausman.) Rodón has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball over the past two seasons, a true ace in every sense of the word. He's been mostly healthy, with the exception of a shoulder scare in late 2021. There's much to like. But the magnitude of risk in handing out a mega-deal to Rodón weighs very heavily on a team with spending constraints (self-imposed as they might be). The shoulder woes have surfaced time and again, wiping out most of his ostensible prime years. He's coming off a career-high workload and heading into his 30s. As Twins fans know all too well, shoulder injuries are pernicious. The downside with Rodón isn't that he'll follow Ray's route and revert to middling performance levels, but that he won't be able to pitch at all. Or he'll become entangled in lengthy cycles of starts, stops, and setbacks, all while accounting for about one-fifth of the payroll year after year. That's undeniably a scary specter, and knowing what we know about the Twins front office and their particular aversion to these kinds of flexibility-inhibiting scenarios, it's easy to see why they've tended to stay away. But this offseason is different. If the Twins miss out on Carlos Correa, it almost feels like they HAVE to find a way to sign Rodón in order for the winter to be considered a resounding success, and to build widespread excitement for the 2023 product. Most other big-splash type moves that are within their range would be somewhat underwhelming as marquee headliner, at a time where they just lost a premier superstar, and had unprecedented spending power as a result. This is not just a matter of optics and PR. It's hard to imagine any singular move, outside of signing one of the top four shortstops, capable of making such a massive impact on the team's quality and upside. Adding Rodón atop the rotation would transform the outlook for that unit and the pitching staff as a whole. Coming off back-to-back Cy Young-caliber seasons, Rodón would be a worthy centerpiece of the offseason from any vantage. So how much would this gamble cost? If we suppose that Rodón is open-minded and simply looking for the best deal, it becomes a straightforward bidding war – albeit one with high stakes and some imposing competition. The left-hander is reportedly receiving early interest from the Dodgers, Mets, and Rangers, among others. The Rangers are said to be one of his most serious suitors, and they exemplify the type of uphill battle Minnesota's front office faces in this pursuit. Texas spent more than half a billion in free agency last offseason alone. With such a free-wheeling mindset, made possible by operating in a top-five market, they can more easily sink big money into shaky investments – like, say, signing Corey Seager for $32 million annually through age 37 – and worry about the repercussions later. For the Twins, it's a different ballgame. The stakes are graver, the downside greater. And depending on Rodón's personal preferences, it might take a significant outbid to woo him from more attractive destinations. It's hard to know exactly where the southpaw's contract figure might land, when you factor in all the risk and all the reward. One article in The Athletic projected five years and $160 million, which is higher than I've seen elsewhere but certainly within reason. For the Twins to make it happen, they might need to get creative with a contract framework that leans strongly in the player's favor – a Scott Boras specialty. Again, you can make a good case to say "screw it, just make the deal happen, whatever it takes." But then, I come back to this front office and what we know about them. As much as they might like Rodón and the fit, it would be very uncharacteristic to outslug a bunch of heavy-hitters in an all-out auction for a peaking asset. What seems much more likely is that they'll turn to other pitchers near the top of the remaining free agent starter pool in search of real upside without the extreme "buy-high" dynamic. One name that really stands out in this group is Nathan Eovaldi. He's got the credentials, the big stage experience, the power fastball. In 2021 he finished fourth in the Cy Young voting with 5.7 fWAR, placing him at the premier class of MLB starters. In 2022 he took a step back, with production that was more or less Robbie Ray-esque. Unlike Rodón and Ray, Eovaldi is not a buy-high target. Unfortunately for him, the right-hander's date with free agency came a year too late for that. He'll still get paid handsomely but the proposition should be much less daunting for a team like the Twins. How much less realistic upside does Eovaldi bring to the table compared to Rodón and Ray, relative to the chasmic difference in cost? If you look at 2022 in isolation, far less, but results aren't that dependably consistent from year to year. To prove that, look no further than all of the dudes we're talking about here. Signing Rodón feels, in some ways, like a move the Twins need to make, should they miss out on Correa. But turning away from the feeding frenzy and focusing on an arm like Eovaldi would be much more on-brand, while still showing a touch of boldness. He would very likely be the most expensive free agent pitcher signing in franchise history, and a plausible upgrade from Sonny Gray in the #1 rotation spot. This course would also allow the Twins to save some coin and spread more of it to other needs, while still addressing the rotation in a meaningful, emphatic way. View full article

The Twins have been relatively busy early in the offseason, with a couple of trades reshaping their infield outlook and an embattled reliever receiving a controversial contract tender. Read on to catch up on what the front office has done so far and where the roster currently stands. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel and Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports Since we last checked in, the Twins have made news with a number of noteworthy moves: trading third baseman Gio Urshela, acquiring shortstop Kyle Farmer, tendering reliever Emilio Pagan. Let's take a quick look at the details behind each of these decisions, and where they leave the state of the roster as the Winter Meetings fast approach on December 4th. Twins Trade Urshela to Angels Just ahead of the arbitration contract tender deadline on November 18th, the Twins shipped one of their eligible players – the most difficult decision among them – to the Angels in exchange for minor-league pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo. A 19-year-old right-hander who hasn't yet advanced past Low-A ball, Hidalgo is a modestly intriguing young arm, but the return for Urshela was expectedly small. He's a valuable player, but at his projected arbitration cost in the $9 million range, a bit less appealing – especially for a Twins team that hopes to usher Jose Miranda in as regular third baseman next year. For the Angels, Urshela is an odd fit. Like the Twins, they seem to view him as strictly a corner infielder ... but they already have Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh entrenched at third and first, with Shohei Ohtani typically occupying DH. It is very difficult to understand LA's motivation in making this move from the current view. Hidalgo's your usual big-stuff/bad-control lotto ticket. Certainly a preferable outcome to non-tendering Urshela for nothing in return. Pagan Is Coming Back for Another Year With Urshela shipped out, the Twins tendered contracts to all of their remaining arbitration-eligible players – including, controversially, the embattled Pagan. He'll earn a projected $3.7 million in his final year of team control, coming off a season where he earned the ire of fans with numerous lapses in crucial moments. He was the poster child for a bullpen that helped derail a promising Twins season. Now we'll see if he can become the figurehead for its triumphant turnaround. Amidst all the backlash this decision understandably provoked, I tried to explore the team's reasoning, noting that Pagan saw improved results down the stretch with a pitch mix change under pitching coaches Pete Maki and Colby Suggs. It's hard to give up on stuff of that caliber, and the upside it entails. While many fans struggle to make sense of it, Pagan does seem to be viewed much more highly in baseball circles than from the outside. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the reliever "drew much more interest" than Urshela ahead of the non-tender deadline. Farmer Enters the Fold Not long after parting with some veteran depth in Urshela, the Twins quickly backfilled with the addition of Farmer, acquired from the Reds in exchange for minor-league righty Casey Legumina. This deal was, in many ways, the reverse of the Urshela trade: Farmer is a valuable enough player, but wasn't that valuable to Cincinnati at his arbitration price point, so they sent him to a team that could use the depth in exchange for a pitching flier. In this case, it's much easier to see the fit for Farmer, who could fill a number of different roles depending on what the Twins do elsewhere. For now, he's slotted in as their starting shortstop, and an adequate interim fill-in for Royce Lewis if that is the front office's leaning. In addition to his defensive flexibility, one aspect of Farmer's profile that surely attracted the Twins is his excellence against left-handed pitching. This looks like an effort to offset one of the offense's key weaknesses in 2021, when they slashed .240/.310/.391 against southpaws. Twins Showing Interest in Rodon Hayes wrote in a roster projection column over the weekend that the team has "definite interest" in Carlos Rodon, which comes as no surprise. However, Hayes adds, "his contract is likely to soar to areas it might not feel comfortable paying, perhaps as high as $160 million over five years." In a column unpacking the troubling realities of buying high on free agent pitching, I examined this very conundrum: Rodon is exactly the kind of proven ace that the Twins should be looking to land this offseason. He's a dominant force coming off an excellent season, and his addition would energize the fanbase while fortifying the rotation. But, he's also entering the market at peak value, have pressed a career-high workload upon a shoulder that has endlessly tormented him. With Rodon, you're going to be paying purely for the upside we just saw, and hoping it sustains. And the price tag will be quite high, with the free-spending Dodgers already in the mix as suitors. One Current Opening on the 40-Man Roster As a sum result of all this moving and shaking, along with the additions of prospects Edouard Julien, Brent Headrick, and Matt Canterino to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, Minnesota's 40-man roster currently stands at 39: Should the Twins need to be make room for more additions, the most vulnerable 40-man spots likely belong to Mark Contreras, Cole Sands, and Trevor Megill. Roster and Payroll Projection: v2 In looking at the projected 2023 roster in its current form, you can see how the Twins are setting a floor. They've basically got all they need to field a competent ballclub next year: a rotation with five proven big-league starters, a fairly deep bullpen with back-end power, and a credible – albeit somewhat underwhelming on whole – stable of position players. The only openings are a backup catcher and utility infielder for the bench, easily filled. That is not to say going forward with this group would be acceptable in anyone's eyes. But the point is that the Twins aren't backed into any corners, needing to allocate their funds in any specific way – just how they like it. With nearly $50 million in spending room just to get back to the 2022 payroll baseline, we'll see how opportunistic this front office can be, free from any kind of restraint. If you want to read up on all of the team's many options available at positions across the board, the Offseason Handbook is now available in full to download, with 39 pages covering the Hot Stove landscape from every angle. It's free to all Caretakers! Grab a copy and build your own 2023 blueprint. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are entering the 2022 Major League Baseball offseason with somewhere between $45-65 million at their disposal just to reach last year’s payroll. With plenty of the roster penciled, how much of that can be ticketed for pitching, and who makes the most sense? Image courtesy of Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Last season, there was hand-wringing virtually every time Rocco Baldelli took a stroll out to the mound. No matter the circumstance, it was often seen as a quick hook and undeserving for the starting pitcher to be lifted. At the end of the summer, I took a look at why short starts aren’t really just a Minnesota thing, and the greatest difference maker being the acquisition of better starters. You can expect Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Joe Ryan all to be in Pete Maki’s Opening Day rotation for 2023. What they do from there though is where this discussion begins. After opting for the likes of Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer last season, there was very little upside to the back of Minnesota’s rotation. Ryan was named the Opening Day starter despite having made just five turns in the big leagues. Bailey Ober looked the part but had been an injury concern previously, and it didn’t take long for that to manifest again in 2022. Realistically speaking, Minnesota has no room for another middling type. It’s necessary for them to go get a top-of-the-rotation arm and use the likes of Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and others as depth. So, where could that lead them? Starting with the free agent market, there are more than a few names to rule out. I don’t foresee Minnesota as a landing spot for Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw probably doesn’t ever want a new uniform. Justin Verlander has a player option, and Chris Sale continues to be unhealthy. The most logical option is probably Carlos Rodon, who the Twins were in on before he signed with the San Francisco Giants. Coming off another dominant season, and one of health, he’s in line for a payday and will have plenty of suitors. Both Noah Syndergaard and Nathan Eovaldi could fit the bill as well, though their effectiveness is questionable to varying degrees. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson, and Mike Clevinger could all also be of intrigue. Looking at the trade landscape, a team Minnesota seems to matchup well with is the Miami Marlins. If they are open to moving Pablo Lopez, it’s hard to argue that Max Kepler wouldn’t be a fit there. Maybe the Diamondbacks are willing to part with Zac Gallen (who the Marlins once traded), or the Padres could be amenable to finding someone willing to take on Blake Snell’s contract. Merrill Kelly is another Arizona arm that should draw intrigue, and if Derek Falvey wants to gamble on an aging friend, Corey Kluber may be worth a shot. Realistically, the names above all provide differing levels of expected production. What the Twins will be tasked with is deciding who they think can surpass the bar set by Sonny Gray. Maeda is a question mark coming off of Tommy John surgery, but we’ve seen him throw at a very high level previously. Mahle looks the part of a breakout star waiting to happen, and it’s no doubt part of the reason he was targeted from the Reds. Ryan has been fine, but the numbers against quality opponents are reason for concern. If he’s the 5th starter though, the quality of the rotation goes up substantially. An overhaul at the back of the bullpen can help to supplement what the Twins want to do in 2023, but the more they can rely on their starters, the better the staff as a whole will be. Even if the Twins find a way to bring Carlos Correa back on a big-time contract, they’ll have money to spend on pitching, and doing so while so much of the nucleus is in a cost-controlled situation makes plenty of sense. Falvey was brought in to develop pitching, and while we haven’t seen it in droves, there are success stories. Paying for top starters is tough, so is acquiring them, but it may be more straightforward than waiting for the next breakout to come. View full article