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By now, sports are synonymous with betting. Teams have partnerships with gambling outlets, and the money flowing from the outlets is beyond substantial. Certain feats are tied to individuals and teams each season, with the Twins having more than a few of intrigue this year. Looking at who should surpass expectations has always been fun. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports From a baseline perspective, the win total is a point of contention each year. While not predictive of standings in the vein that Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA attempts, over/under win totals attempt to place a value on a team's overall ability. This season Bovada has the Minnesota Twins checking in at 83.5 wins while giving them equal odds (+150) to finish either first or second in the AL Central. Ending with the win total, here are some thoughts on Twins over/under lines being offered for the 2023 season: Byron Buxton HR Total - 27.5 Despite his speed, Byron Buxton’s best swing has always looked like it would produce more of a power hitter than someone that needed to steal bases. We have seen that play out in recent seasons, and despite playing just 92 games last year, he blasted 28 home runs. On a per-game basis, Buxton’s power is in line with Mike Trout and some of the best sluggers across all of baseball. Minnesota would probably like to see Buck reign it in a bit more at the plate, leaning into a higher level of discipline. He will still run into his fair share of long balls, which comes down to the number of games he can remain healthy for. Hoping that this is the season for the fluky injuries to stop; Buxton playing anything north of 100 games should allow him to cruise by his home run total. It’s a risk betting on his health, but give me the over here. Carlos Correa Batting Average - .280 Batting average is not the indication of results that it was once viewed as, but there is still plenty of value to be placed on it. Last season the Twins star shortstop hit .291 across 136 games. That included a significant slump during the middle of the season. He is a .279 career hitter and has hit over .280 just twice in his eight-year career. I don’t think I’d touch this line, but I could certainly see an argument for the over. With the lack of a shift, Correa could see a few more hits fall, and he gets the benefit of a normal Spring Training where he can settle into his new home. Overall, I think Correa’s slash line trends more towards on-base and slugging, so while his OPS should rise, the batting average may fall. Give me the under on this one. Pablo Lopez/Joe Ryan Wins - 10.5 Pitcher wins have very little value in and of themselves, but they will forever remain a tracked statistic. Last year, Rocco Baldelli was hamstrung with regard to how deep his starters could go in a game. That shouldn’t be the case, given the depth he has this year, and that should benefit the pitching staff as a whole. Joe Ryan led the club with 13 wins last year and shows up in this space for 2023. Lopez was reason enough to trade Luis Arraez, and he is coming off a 10-win season of his own. In the Minnesota rotation, both players should be expected to have plenty of offensive backing, and a better bullpen should protect their leads. Eleven wins is a substantial number, but a good Minnesota team should have a couple of double-digit winners. I’m not sure these are the exact two, but I think at least one should get there. I’ll take the over on Lopez and let it be. Minnesota Twins Wins - 83.5 Looking at the division, I think it’s fair to suggest that Minnesota is right there at the top. Cleveland didn’t do much to get better this offseason, and while they are the reigning champs, it may have been more to do with taking advantage of a situation. Chicago still strikes me as the roster to look out for, and while Pedro Grifol is better in charge than Tony La Russa, that may not be enough to vault them up. Even if the Twins can’t grab the AL Central title again, and I wouldn’t bet against that, they should surpass 84 wins. This looks like a group that can fly past 90 and even a disastrous finish, as the walking wounded saw them win 78 last season. The pitching depth is there, and while the lineup looks different, this team is constructed to compete. I’m taking the over. What are your favorite bets or over/under tallies for the 2023 Twins? View full article

With defense being more crucial than ever after the changes to the shift rules, the Twins are more positioned to benefit than any other team in baseball. Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports Neither is inherently evil, whether it's the pitch clock or your politics. The application of both is where it can get ugly quickly, and things may start to get a little awkward at family gatherings, and yes, I'm still talking about the pitch clock. Love it or hate it, the new rules are here for 2023, and the Twins have built a team that can take advantage of the new era of baseball. With the shift changes, the pick-off rules, bigger bases, and the fact that the full season for an MLB player is roughly 150 games, the Twins used these facts to help coordinate roster moves. The Twins offseason was a roller coaster ride for shmucks like me trying to figure out what was going on with this team. Now that the dust has settled, the picture is more visible. The front office has constructed a team with elite defense and some left-handed bats that can benefit from an open right side for the first time in their careers. Defensively, teams with elite athletes that can cover ground and make superstar plays, rather than having a spray chart in their back pocket telling them where to play to create outs, will benefit the most. Athletes will be back making more outs, not data points. Having an elite defensive shortstop becomes way more attractive now that there will be a premium on being able to range to the left and right and make big-time throws. Now that shortstops can't swing to the other side of second base, we will see Carlos Correa (aka C4) ranging to his left and making that spin throw on the right side of second base a couple of times this year. I'm excited to see shortstops limited in their shifting ability and see some of the most impressive athletes in the world be able to show it off. The Twins get to be, arguably, the biggest beneficiary. The Twins also brought in Joey Gallo, who we have seen with a wider stance, driving the ball to all fields early in spring. Even this tiny sample size is encouraging. With no shift and pitchers not having as much incentive to throw the cutter inside because there is no iron curtain on the right side, we could see Gallo finally flourish. With a simplified Gallo approach, fans may see a fun uptick from your dad's least favorite player (trademark pending). Joey Gallo also fits the mold of the elite defenders that the team has placed a high value on; Michael A Taylor and the already-established Kepler/Buxton outfield combo may be worthy of a Soul Patrol-level nickname. The shift doesn't impact the outfield as much, but it's worth noting that the Twins attacked the defensive side of this team with the thought of improving their offense too, or the banned shift may provide that offensive uptick on its own. Every team in the league has abandoned the idea of a guy playing 162 games. (In 2022, only Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson and shortstop Dansby Swanson played in all 162 games.) The depth and positional flexibility will make Baldelli's job pretty simple (that thought may get the old-timers to sleep at night). The Twins have solid defenders that can play all over. Farmer, Gordon, Solano, Gallo, Kirilloff, Miranda, and Taylor (fans will see him and Buxton in the same outfield) can all play multiple positions. So much tinkering can be done with this lineup and not lose the edge created defensively. There are quality options when a player gets a day off due to injuries, rest, or just putting the best nine out there on a given day. The Twins aren't a finished product as it stands right now. More moves may be coming, but the Minnesota Twins will defend as well as anybody in the league as a unit. Great defense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark has the potential to be a phenomenal winning formula. It's getting to be time for the rubber to meet the road. I'm excited to start seeing the payoff of all the moves and top-tier defense returning in the MLB. There is no doubt in my mind that Twins management took the new rules into account when building an elite defensive ball club for 2023. Regarding the rule changes, you can see the glass half empty or half full, but we should know by now that the Twins front office sees a glass that was made too big. They dealt with reality and facts and used that logic to create a competitive product for 2023. Go, Twins! View full article

Highlights from the Minnesota Twins spring training split squad action Sunday. Jose Miranda hit a pair of home runs in one game while Joey Gallo, Max Kepler and prospect Kala'i Rosario homered in the other. Also included are some highlights of Pablo López, Tyler Mahle, Carlos Correa, Jose Salas and much more. View full video

MINNEAPOLIS - The role of executive chair of the Minnesota Twins changed hands this offseason with Jim Pohlad retiring from the role and his nephew, Joe Pohlad, taking over for him on November 28, 2022. Joe Pohlad moves up from his role as the team’s executive vice president in brand strategy and growth. Image courtesy of Theo Tollefson Jim Pohlad will still be involved with the Twins to a degree but as his 70th birthday approaches next month, he decided it was time for him to pass his day-to-day roles to Joe Pohlad. Jim Pohlad will still be the team’s representative in ownership for any league matters. Many Twins fans ponder what will be different with Joe Pohlad compared to Jim Pohlad. From the first three months on the job, it’s already apparent to some fans that Joe is more public-facing and involved with the front office. For starters, Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote in his piece on Joe Pohlad (published February 14) that, unlike his uncle and grandfather’s time as the Twins chairman, he will be keeping an office at Target Field. On top of that, Joe Pohlad was heavily involved in making sure the Twins brought back superstar shortstop Carlos Correa and gave him the largest contract in team history. “I can think of no better way to articulate the seamless transition from Jim, his uncle to Joe than what we just went through,” said Derek Falvey during Correa’s press conference on January 11. “Ultimately going back to March and the contract we came up with, and then this offseason. Joe's been a part of those conversations for the last five plus years, at least that I've been here. So I expected that but Joe's patience was matched in a similar way, what Scott [Boras] and Carlos were showing, but also that persistence and that desire to find a way to get to this outcome.” Later during the press conference, Twins Daily co-owner John Bonnes followed up on this quote from Falvey asking Joe Pohlad if the large contract for Correa was a sign of things to come with future free agent deals. Joe Pohlad responded saying, “We'll take that on a case-by-case basis. Like Derek said earlier, we're in constant communication, and we're always looking at ways to make our team better. So if those opportunities come forward, then we'll evaluate that [them] then.” While Joe Pohlad has had a more active role in team transactions than his uncle in the last five years according to Falvey, he still does not want to become or be seen as an owner “who’s always meddling,” as Hayes wrote in the same article on February 14. Joe Pohlad’s interaction in the team’s baseball operations since returning to the front office in 2018 has not come without experience. He spent time as an assistant in the baseball operations department beginning in 2007. His experience there, which not many owners in Major League Baseball have had, sheds light that he is willing to shed the common trope Twins fans attribute to his family; the “Cheap Pohlads.” When asked individually at the January 11 press conference if Correa’s re-signing shows critical fans that ownership is committed to building the team for a championship, Joe Pohlad responded, “I hope so. I think how we view it, or at least how I view it, is this the best route for us in order to get to where we want to be, which is a competitive team that can compete for a World Series?. Ultimately, the goal is to win and is every move we make going to add to that and achieve that goal? And this [signing] is gonna do that.” Joe Pohlad was built up in the Twins organization to be fitted for this role. He’s worked in a variety of roles within the Twins in anticipation of the day when this role was bestowed on him. In an era of Major League Baseball where the reputations of team owners usually bring negative connotations to their franchises, Joe Pohlad may be the outlier. Especially when compared to the ownership of teams such as the Houston Astros’ Jim Crane, the Cincinnati Reds’ Phil Castellini, and the Baltimore Orioles’ John Angelos. Joe Pohlad is in a similar boat as Castellini and Angelos with other family members (specifically the fathers of Castellini and Angelos), who are still living and have the ownership of the team in their name. Unlike the two though, Joe Pohlad has not made any comments that have had fanbases question their commitments to their franchises or the game of baseball. As the first full season with Joe Pohlad at the helm warms up in Ft. Myers for spring training, he has demonstrated many reasons for Twins fans to hope things are changing for the better. Maybe even enough to made the phrase, “Cheap Pohlads” be heard less often as fans return to Target Field for the 2023 season. View full article

FORT MYERS, FL—The 2022 first-round draft pick is seeing plenty of action in early spring training, and building upon the stellar impression he made during last year's pro debut. Rocco Baldelli and Carlos Correa are among those who've taken notice. Image courtesy of William Parmeter "He makes it look easy" is one of the highest compliments you can pay a person when it comes to something so immensely challenging as playing baseball at the highest level. And yet, that's Brooks Lee in a nutshell. The 2022 first-round pick has handled everything thrown at him with such a sense of grace and nonchalance that it's easy to see why the Twins keep throwing more. Selected eighth overall out of Cal Poly, Lee impressed the organization enough with his smooth transition to the pro game that they advanced him rapidly over a two-month span. Following a brief opening stint at rookie ball, where he batted .353 in four games, Lee skipped right past Low-A and went straight to Cedar Rapids. In 25 games with the Kernels, the switch-hitter slashed .289/.395/.454 with four home runs and an 18-to-16 K/BB ratio. His performance was so impressive that he received a late promotion to Double-A, where he went 11-for-26 (.423) in six contests, including four playoff games. This spring, the Twins are showing a ton of faith and belief in Lee. Oftentimes when a prospect drafted nine months earlier is invited to big-league camp, it's used as an opportunity to soak in the experience and acclimate to major-league surroundings. Not in Lee's case. They're throwing him right into the fire. Through the first four days of spring training games, Lee made three starts and handled the assignment with aplomb, notching four hits in nine at-bats. "He’s clearly not overwhelmed with the situation," observed manager Rocco Baldelli after Lee went 2-for-3 against the Braves on Tuesday. For his part, Lee says he wasn't quite expecting to get this much early-spring action ... not that he's disappointed. "It's pretty surprising, but I signed up for it. I'm having a lot of fun." For those familiar with Lee's background, his ability to take it all in stride and enjoy the moment shouldn't come as a huge shock. The Coach's Kid The narrative about a coach's kid with supernatural baseball aptitude can be an overplayed trope, but in Lee's case it is impossible to deny. After starring for San Luis Obispo High School in California, he was considered a top name in the 2019 draft, but withdrew his name the day before, informing teams he intended to play at Cal Poly for his father Larry, who'd served as Mustangs head coach for nearly two decades. A 2020 season lost to injury and COVID was followed by an excellent 2021, where he batted .342 with a 1.010 OPS, and then an even better 2022, which featured a .357/.462/.664 slash line and cemented his status as a top-10 draft pick. Growing up as a coach's kid creates a deep and unique connection to the baseball field, and the fundamentals of the game. It's apparent to Lee's current manager, who himself was coached by his father as a youth. Rocco has credited Dan Baldelli with developing his love for the game, so he can relate to this special aspect of Lee's makeup. "He’s a very relaxed guy when he’s at the ballpark," Baldelli said. "He gives off the impression that he is a coach’s son and he spent many, many, many years of his life at a baseball field, and he knows everything that goes on at the baseball field. It doesn’t feel like there’s a ton going on here that he’s completely unfamiliar with." In particular, Baldelli has been impressed by Lee's ability to process information and adapt on the fly. "The at-bats look good. He makes really good adjustments during at-bats, he finds a way to get his barrel kind of on a good plane. Depending on what’s going on in the count, depending on the pitcher he’s facing, he’s not a one-trick pony at the plate, that’s pretty clear from watching him." This crucial quality helps explain why Lee emerged as a top 2022 draft prospect – MLB.com had him ranked as the fifth-best draft prospect ahead of time – and why the Twins were so delighted to get him with the No. 8 pick. So far he's been everything they could've hoped, with his initial performance standing out so much that Lee managed to sneak (ever-so-slightly) past Royce Lewis to claim the No. 1 spot on our latest Twins prospect rankings. Now all he has to contend with is a troubled history for those who've been in this position before. Breaking a Pattern of Top Prospect Letdowns I wrote recently about the track record for Twins prospects who've topped our rankings over the past 10 years. It's a list that includes: Most recently, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, who are both grappling with potentially career-threatening health issues as we head into this season. Austin Martin, who plummeted in the rankings following a tough encore season at Double-A in 2022. Fernando Romero, who fizzled out and never came close to reaching his high-end starter potential. Byron Buxton, whose career thus far has epitomized the disruptive power of uncontrollable forces impacting elite athletes, even when their on-field play matches their promise. Can Lee break the spell? His skill set is so advanced, balanced, and resilient that it feels almost impossible to envision a Martin-esque performance drop-off. Injuries are of course less predictable, and Lee hasn't been able to totally avoid their grip – he suffered a hyperextended knee in 2020 that required surgery – but he's fully healthy and without any restriction this spring. That differentiates them from so many other players in camp, and has probably contributed to the number of opportunities available to him here in the first week of games. The natural question now, for The Natural, is what comes next. What's Ahead for Brooks Lee? I'm assuming Lee will open the year at Double-A. That's a semi-aggressive assignment on its face, but so send him back to Single-A would feel almost unfair to the pitchers there. Once he's settled in Wichita, Lee is instantly in range of a big-league promotion, and his showing this spring helps build confidence he'll be ready for the call whenever it comes. "Offensively, defensively, everything we’ve thrown at him, he’s handled it, done it, excelled at it, and he looks good," said Baldelli. Assuming he picks up where he left off in the minors, it becomes a matter of when and where Lee's opportunity will arise in the majors. The Twins are hoping it won't come anytime soon at shortstop, where Correa is penciled in for years to come. The more imminent opportunity figures to come at third base, and it sort of feels like the organization is planning around such a scenario, maybe sooner than later. Playing third would be a relatively new experience for Lee, who played shortstop exclusively in college and has yet to appear anywhere else defensively as a pro. He said short is his favorite position, but added, "I love third too." Maybe it's meant to be. After all, Lee was named after legendary Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson. In the past, he's set his sights on an accordingly ambitious career path. "Honestly, I think I should be a Hall of Famer when I grow up and be in the talk for one of the greatest of all time," Lee said back in 2021 as a redshirt freshman at Cal Poly. These days, he's a little more subdued in his goal-setting. Asked what he hopes to accomplish this year: "Just be satisfied with how I did at the end of the season, that’s all I care about. Haven’t really thought about stats or anything like that, or where I’m gonna be." Sounds like a coach's kid. And while he doesn't have his dad in the dugout anymore, Larry is never too far away – Brooks says he talks to him "every day." Upon reaching the big leagues, Lee will have the luxury of a more contemporary mentor close at hand. After Correa exited his spring training debut on Wednesday, I asked for his impressions of Lee thus far. "Man that kid is a stud," Correa said, with an added emphasis on the last word. "I really, really, really like this kid. I’m very high on him. Don’t be surprised if we see him up this year, he’s very, very good man. Everybody I talk to about him, it’s high praise. I don’t get impressed very easily. That was definitely a great pick by the Twins." Just a couple of first-round shortstops who make it look easy. View full article

Carlos Correa made his 2023 spring training debut for the Minnesota Twins Wednesday.Here are some highlights from that game as well as a rundown of some Twins news items. View full video

FORT MYERS - It's spring training for everyone, even superstars. Twins fans got to see Carlos Correa in his first Grapefruit League action on Wednesday afternoon as he batted second and started at shortstop in the Twins 4-4 tie with the Philadelphia Phillies. He singled in his first at-bat and felt good even before that. On his first swing he pulled a ball foul and then stepped outside the batter's box to reflect on how good his swing was. Then he remembered the new pitch clock. John Bonnes got the rest of the story from Correa. ⬇️🙃 correaclock-landscape.mp4 View full article

Today's Caretaker-only audio diary features a smorgasbord of thoughts on a big day at Twins camp that featured very encouraging spring debuts for Carlos Correa and Bailey Ober. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports The Twins ended Wednesday’s home game against the Phillies in a 4-4 tie, but the day was more eventful than that boring outcome would suggest. In this 22-minute rundown of today’s key topics, I talked about: Carlos Correa’s spring debut, and some of the thoughts he shared after the game about putting a frustrating offseason behind him, dealing with the new infield positioning limitations, and facing the Phillies’ top prospect (who is a fellow Scott Boras client). Bailey Ober’s hugely encouraging first spring start, which featured eye-opening velocity readings, as well as his thoughts on how it went. Weather-related implications of the pitch clock that I’d not considered until something Ober said after his outing. News that José Miranda will not play in the WBC due to lingering shoulder soreness, and why Rocco Baldelli isn’t especially concerned at this point. If you're a Caretaker, just scroll down for your exclusive content! And if you're not, maybe consider becoming a Caretaker? You likely visit regularly, and that's going to become even more likely as the season gears up. Supporting something you value feels good, especially when it's been here feeding your baseball habit for over 10 years for free, right? We're in spring training reporting because we love this stuff, and we want to share it as much as we can, so you can find lot of free content from Fort Myers other places on the site. But unfortunately, spring training is expensive, and that's especially true this year after Hurricane Ian damaged a lot of the lodging options. Plus, there are lot of other benefits, like a free Winter Meltdown ticket and early access for guest, special callouts on the site, and lots more inside or in-depth content like this. So please consider joining our little club. The money is going to a site you love, to support coverage you love, and writers you value. Thank you so much. Join Here to support Twins Daily and get your exclusive content! View full article

Spring training games start later this week, and the team's offseason moves are coming to a close. Looking around the AL Central, who are the most improved teams? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Spring training's start is a time to reflect on the off-season and look ahead to the upcoming campaign. The Twins' off-season plan included a whirlwind of moves, including signing the biggest free-agent contract in team history. Other AL Central teams were less active, so that begs the question: Are the Twins the AL Central's Most Improved Team? Last Friday, The Athletic's Jayson Stark surveyed 29 executives, former executives, coaches, and scouts for their opinions on the upcoming season. The Twins ranked as the sixth most-improved team in the American League. All the remaining AL Central teams ranked in the top five among the least-improved teams in the AL. The Tigers ranked as the overall least-improved team with 19 votes. Let's recap what happened in the AL Central this winter. 5. Tigers Off-Season Recap: Traded Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens for Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, and Donny Sands; Signed Michael Lorenzen; Signed Matthew Boyd; Traded Joe Jimenez for Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jake Higginbotham In 2021, the Tigers surprised many on the way to a third-place finish in the AL Central. Last season, there was even more anticipation surrounding the team, with many of their top prospects expected to impact the big-league roster. Their season failed to get off the ground for Detroit as the club struggled to a 66-96 record. The team's offseason moves will minimally impact the roster, and that's why the club projects to lose 90 games. Tigers fans can hope that Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Spencer Torkelson, and Riley Greene improve at the big-league level, but Detroit's season looks bleak. 4. White Sox Off-Season Recap: Lost Jose Abreu and Johnny Cueto to free agency; Signed Mike Clevinger; Signed Andrew Benintendi; Signed Elvis Andrus; Traded Theo Denlinger for Franklin German Many expected the White Sox to run away with the AL Central in 2021, but the club finished with a .500 record. Pedro Grifol, the former Royals bench coach, is stepping into the managerial role. Like the Twins, Chicago was hit hard by the injury bug last season. Jose Abreu has been a team leader on and off the field, so it will be interesting to see how the team adjusts to not having him in the lineup. Mike Clevinger is under investigation for domestic violence, so there is no guarantee of how much he will pitch for the club this season. Andrew Benintendi is a solid addition to the club, but there are other holes on the roster. Elvis Andrus was still on the market and agreed to a deal over the weekend. The White Sox had room to make plenty of other moves but decided to put their faith in a healthier club in 2023. 3. Royals Off-Season Recap: Signed Jordan Lyles; Traded Wyatt Mills for Jacob Wallace; Signed Ryan Yarbrough; Signed Aroldis Chapman; Traded Adalberto Mondesi for Josh Taylor; Traded Michael A. Taylor for Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz; Signed Zack Greinke Kansas City seems stuck in rebuilding mode with some high-end young players and a farm system ranking in the middle of the pack. The Royals aren't going to contend in the near future, but some exciting players are on the roster. Their place on this list is related more to what the other AL Central teams did or didn't do this winter. Aroldis Chapman is an all-time great relief pitcher, but it's hard to know what he has left in the tank. Kansas City can hope he has a great first half, and they can deal him before the trade deadline. Royals fans can pin their hopes on watching Zack Greinke join the 3,000 strikeout club with 108 Ks in 2023. 2. Guardians Off-Season Recap: Traded Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver; Traded Nolan Jones for Juan Brito; Signed Mike Zunino; Signed Josh Bell; Traded Owen Miller for a PTBNL; Traded Will Benson for Justin Boyd Cleveland didn't need to add much to their roster to be projected near the top of the AL Central. Last season, projections didn't have the Guardians running away with the division, but Minnesota and Chicago fell apart. Many experts will pick Cleveland to win the division again, but they must prove that 2022 wasn't a fluke. The Guardians had a couple of offseason needs, which the team filled with Mike Zunino and Josh Bell. Those aren't big-name free agents, but the club was already considered the most complete in the AL Central. Their organization continues to pump out big-league-caliber pitchers, and Jose Ramirez is one of the game's best hitters. Cleveland fans can look to the future when David Blitzer takes full ownership of the club, which could increase the team's payroll. 1. Twins Off-Season Recap: Signed Carlos Correa; Signed Christian Vazquez; Signed Joey Gallo; Trade Casey Legumina for Kyle Farmer, Trade Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz for Michael A. Taylor; Trade Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio; Trade Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo Minnesota's whirlwind winter has been full of ups and downs. Correa seemed headed to multiple other organizations before returning to the Twins. Vazquez adds depth behind the plate, which was one of the team's most significant needs this winter. The front office also upgraded the rotation by trading for Pablo Lopez, even though it cost Luis Arraez. On paper, the Twins have tremendous depth throughout the roster, which can help if/when injuries impact the team in 2023. Some of the moves will help the team more than others, but the team's leaders have set high goals. Can this roster meet expectations? How would you rank the moves made by the AL Central teams this offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

What did our mighty machine overlord spit out about the 2023 seasons of several Minnesota Twins hitters? Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus—one of baseball's leading analysis site—released their PECOTA projections for every player in MLB. PECOTA predicts nearly everything; minor stats like caught stealing, hit by pitch, and triples emanate from its crystal ball along with more crucial numbers like slugging and BABIP. For this article, we will focus on DRC+ and WARP. Below are Minnesota’s likely opening day position players (plus Royce Lewis) along with their position, DRC+, WARP, and player comp. You can read more about DRC+ here, but to oversimplify, it’s a play off Fangraphs’ wRC+ that also considers inputs like pitcher quality and play outcome relative to the stadium; a hit off Jacob deGrom is worth more than a hit off a position player, after all. 100 is league average, with each point in either direction standing as a percent in relation to the average. If that doesn’t make sense: Byron Buxton’s 119 projection means he will be 19% better than the average hitter. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR; 2.0 is considered an average player. Note: These are the 50% projections, meaning each player has a coin flip’s chance of beating or falling behind their projection. Alright! We have some zesty numbers above. I’m struck by Jorge Polanco standing as an equal with Carlos Correa (they were ranked 44 and 45, respectively) as they share an identical DRC+ projection. Cody Christie wrote that Polanco is Minnesota’s most underrated player, and he may be correct. Correa’s projection appears surprisingly tepid, given that he’s bested a 117 DRC+ in his last two seasons. The next surprise is Joey Gallo. Despite Gallo owning one of the most extreme profiles in baseball, PECOTA sees his 2022 as something of a fluke, and the machine hands him a generous 107 DRC+ projection. I think the Twins would be glad to receive that kind of production from Gallo. His comp is spot-on. Now, on to some disappointments. Nick Gordon’s 86 DRC+ appears low, but PECOTA is typically suspicious of high strikeout/high BABIP players. It’s a tricky balancing act—any drop in power kills his entire profile—but it’s not impossible for him to succeed; Gordon will need to prove himself again in 2023. Then, Trevor Larnach. I scrolled through about 1500 players before finding Larnach munching on algae at the bottom of the list, impressing no one with an 85 DRC+. He suffers from a similar ailment as Gordon: producing with a compromised strikeout-fueled skillset, but he also lacks the playing time to prove his system works. To end this article, we’ll go over a few fun projections. PECOTA loves what Yunior Severino cooked up in the minors last season, handing him a 97 DRC+ despite just a handful of games in the high minors. Jose Salas—part of Minnesota’s return for Luis Arraez—earns a 0.7 WARP projection despite a putrid offensive line; the machine must love his defense. PECOTA sees something in Jair Camargo’s profile; he earned a 0.4 WARP projection despite traveling in the same boat as Yunior Severino. And finally… 36-year-old ByungHo Park has a 99 DRC+ projection. Legends never die. Any other numbers catch your eye? Are there any projections not covered in this article you would like to know about? Leave a comment and start the discussion. Note: Baseball Prospectus tinkers with PECOTA until the start of the season; these numbers were taken on February 14th and may not match future projections. Also, if you question PECOTA's value, Rob Mains wrote about how successful the machine is and where it fails. View full article

Defensive metrics suggest the Twins’ infield defense will be a weakness this year. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins' defensive outfield should be stellar and fun to watch in 2022. With Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Michael A. Taylor all providing close to elite-level production and Trevor Larnach proving to be a solid defensive outfielder, the team shouldn't have many issues producing one of the best defensive outfields in Major League Baseball But how good is the infield defense? The Opening Day infield will likely feature Jose Miranda at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Jorge Polanco at second base, Alex Kirilloff at first base, and a backstop pairing of Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers. In this article, I will not include any data on Alex Kirilloff at first base simply because it is a new position for him, and there is very minimal data to make any assumptions on how he will perform defensively. Fielding goes far beyond just putouts and errors, so to judge how good the Twins' infield is defensively, we will look at several different stats: Outs Above Average (OAA), Runs Above Average (RAA), and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Each of these stats uses a formula to dictate where a fielder sits compared to the average MLB player. If a player has a positive number in the OAA and RAA stat, they were better than average. If that number is negative, they were below average. DRS tells us how many runs that player saved with their glove. Again, if that number is positive, that is the number of runs they saved with their fielding ability in 2022. If the number is negative, they accounted for giving up that many runs over the year. If a player boots a ball with a runner on third base and that runner scores, the player doesn't automatically get -1 DRS, just as hitting a walk-off home run doesn't automatically give a player 1 WAR. All these stats are accumulated throughout every ball in play in the season. With those stats briefly explained, how did the Twins infield fair in 2022? We can start with the good news: the Twins catchers were fantastic. Christian Vazquez accounted for 11 DRS over 918 innings, and Ryan Jeffers had 4 DRS in just 496 innings. No matter who plays catcher for the Twins in 2022, they are sure to be very reliable defensively. Not to mention, both should also be above-average hitting catchers at the plate. I like what the Twins have done here with the position. The next best infield defender in 2022 was Carlos Correa. In 2021, Correa was elite at the position, compiling 12 OAA, 9 RAA, and 21 DRS on his way to winning a Gold Glove Award. To say his numbers dipped in 2022 would be quite an understatement. Last year, Correa produced -3 OAA, -2 RAA, and 3 DRS. This dramatic number dip is shocking because the eye test told us that Correa was a terrific defender in 2022. Though the numbers don't back that up, there is still a chance that Correa rebounds in 2023 and returns to at least being a solid fielder. Just two years removed from an elite-level campaign, Correa is a candidate for positive regression. However, there is also the general belief around the league that Correa will eventually move to third base. Maybe 2022 is the start of the defensive deterioration that will push him there sooner rather than later. The remaining two infielders, Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco were not good in the field in 2022. We can start with Miranda, who split time at first and third base last year. In 2022, Miranda played 595.1 innings at first base and 246.2 innings at third base. While playing first, Miranda accounted for -4 OAA and -3 RAA. At third, he was right around league average, accounting for 0 OAA and 0 RAA. Overall, Miranda produced -6 DRS on the year in his split time at both positions. Miranda is set to be the Twins full time third baseman this year, so we will get a better read on how he is at third base. If Miranda shows to be a below average fielder at third base, this will likely be his last year playing third base consistently, as I think when Royce Lewis returns, he could fit at third as a plus defender. While his numbers at first weren’t good in 2022, I think Miranda will be at least a league average defender at first baseman if given a full-time role, which would likely be where he ends up if Lewis takes over third. Miranda’s bat will continue to play, but he will need to continue to work on his glove. Polanco was not a good defender in 2022. Polanco has never been a good fielder. He was atrocious defensively at shortstop in 2019 but is also well below average at second base. Last year, Polanco had -9 OAA, -7 RAA, and -1 DRS. Polanco is another player, like Miranda, who makes his money at the plate. If Polanco can continue to provide solid production at the plate, he will provide excellent value to the Twins, especially with his team-friendly contract. However, unless he shifts his focus, Polanco will continue to be a defensive liability. "Nothing falls but raindrops" may again be the theme of the outfield as they help out their fly-ball pitchers by making spectacular web gem-type plays day in and day out, but the infield defense is flawed. Even with the infield weighing them down, I think the Twins' defense will be top 10 in 2023. There's a chance the infield will experience a bit of positive regression defensively, and the Minnesota Twins will be an all-around enjoyable defensive team to watch. View full article

Happy Valentine's Day and day before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training! To celebrate, here are some Twins Valentine's Day cards for you to pass on to your baseball-loving Valentine... or for you or your friends to chuckle at! Let me know your favorite one! All player images are courtesy of ESPN.com View full article

The Minnesota Twins will kick off actual baseball action down in Fort Myers this week, and with pitchers and catchers reporting today, the offseason has officially come to an end. That doesn’t mean their won’t be additional changes to the roster, but Major League Baseball’s calendar has flipped to 2023. Image courtesy of Amanda Inscore/The News-Press USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK For the Minnesota Twins, 2023 represents an opportunity to right the ship. Rocco Baldelli got off to a great start in his managerial career, but since the 2019 Bomba Squad, things haven’t been the same. Despite a postseason berth in 2020, the Twins have missed playoff baseball each of the past two years. This roster looks the part of being the best we’ve seen in some time, and the front office now wants to see it matter on the field. While we are still a bit away from seeing the Twins in game action, there is plenty to catch up on from the offseason. Who’s Out From the Opening Day roster last year, just 14 players currently remain in the system. Notably, starting catcher Gary Sanchez is gone, and so too are starting infielders Luis Arraez and Gio Urshela. Minnesota flipped the arbitration-eligible Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels for prospect Alejandro Hidalgo, while Arraez’s departure brought in Jorge Lopez (along with Jose Salas and Byron Chourio). The rotation will no longer see Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer among it, and longstanding organizational piece Miguel Sano remains unemployed at the moment. For Minnesota, this roster is one of renewed belief. Although Arraez was beloved by fans, his deal brought in much-needed pitching help. It will be weird to see Sano in a different uniform if and when he ever surfaces again, but not being in the organization has removed a vein for storylines. The rotation a season ago was largely pieced together, and with both departures for the Twins still being unemployed, it’s not shocking that the new group shows more promise. Who’s In Most importantly, Carlos Correa is back. Although it took some weird twists and turns to happen, Correa is with the organization at least for another six years, meaning that his deal lines up perfectly with Byron Buxton’s. A true superstar shortstop, Twins fans could watch C4 trend towards an eventual Hall of Fame enshrinement due to his exploits in the new Minnesota threads. The shortstop is also joined by a new backstop in Christian Vazquez. He is expected to start the bulk of Minnesota’s games, and will push Ryan Jeffers into more of a reserve role than he saw a season ago. The outfield grabbed an addition in Joey Gallo, and while he’ll need to bounce back from a down season with the Dodgers and Yankees, he adds defensive talent that could make Minnesota’s outfield the best in baseball. The rotation brings back Kenta Maeda at 100% after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery, and the aforementioned Lopez should be expected to contribute in a big way as well. The bullpen has largely gone unaddressed, but that could be an area Minnesota looks to tweak before Opening Day. Kyle Farmer was added as a fallback option, and now immediately slots in as a high-level utility player. What Are We Watching For This season is one for the youth. Jose Miranda is going to start at the hot corner and be expected to contribute immediately. Plenty of promise has followed Alex Kirilloff, and it’s up to his wrist as to whether he can be the regular at first base. Trevor Larnach has looked the part of a true impact bat, but injuries have kept him off the field. He was solid in left field last season, but will need to show he can remain healthy. That was the major downfall last year, health, and Nick Paparesta’s addition to the organization can hopefully make a quiet impact. Seeing the likes of Buxton, Tyler Mahle, Jeffers, Jorge Polanco, and any number of other players remain available should only enhance Minnesota’s chances. Which Twins player will breakout in 2023? We have seen Louie Varland win the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year each of the past two seasons (2021, 2022). Royce Lewis made his big league debut in 2022 and should be back this summer. Simeon Woods Richardson showed up for one start at the end of the year as well. Does Austin Martin or Brooks Lee get the call? Maybe David Festa forces his way into big league action. Although the Twins may not have the top end talent of some other organizations, their prospect depth is plenty exciting. Many of Minnesota’s regulars will remain in camp with the organization. There are a few others that will play for their native countries in the World Baseball Classic this spring. Checking out a few of them in action during more meaningful games could give fans a glimpse of how ready they are for the regular season to start. With Cleveland having made just minor upgrades in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, their top spot is ripe for the picking. Andrew Benintendi is a nice get for Chicago, but expecting Mike Clevinger to contribute there any time soon isn’t a good bet. The division is again right there for the taking, and it starts this week. View full article