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The Twins made a much-needed trade for an all-star reliever at last year’s deadline, but what they got fell short of expectations. Can Jorge López rediscover what made him so successful in the first half of last year? Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports In late-July of last year, the Twins were still grasping to a small division lead, with more holes seemingly appearing by the day. One of the biggest gaps in their roster at the time fell between superstar relief ace Jhoan Duran – and pretty much anyone else in their relief corps. Sure, Griffin Jax had built some trust equity from the skipper, as did Caleb Thielbar. They weren’t all-star caliber players, but they could be trusted to pass the baton in a relay that led to Duran. The team then went out and made a trade for the star-level arm that was desperately needed to help bridge the gap. Enter Jorge López. The former Baltimore Oriole was having a career-year when the Twins acquired him in exchange for pitching prospects Cade Povich and Yennier Cano. He had a fantastic 1.68 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 60% ground ball rate, leading to his first all star nod. His fastballs ran hot, with an average of 97.4 MPH for his four-seamer and 98 MPH on his preferred sinker, and he paired them with a slew of secondary offerings that have carried over from his time as a starting pitcher. His curveball, in particular, was a real weapon, with his slider and changeup serving as additional tricks up his sleeve. So Lopez had big strikeout numbers, got plenty of ground ball outs, and had two and a half years of club control at the time of the trade. What’s not to like? While he wasn’t a train wreck with his new team, Lopez’s first two months as a Twin were disappointing based on the expectations that were set when the team acquired him. In that time, he had a 4.37 ERA across 23 innings pitched, due in large part to a walk rate (13.7%) that nearly eclipsed his strikeout percentage (17.6%). Lopez’s sinker was his bread and butter in the first few months of the season, but its success trailed off considerably once the calendar flipped to July. In the first three months of the 2022 campaign, he allowed just 11 hits on that offering, but in the second half that figure nearly doubled to 20 (six of which went for extra bases). This pitch wasn’t just his most used offering, but it was a notable choice when deciding what to use as a “put away” pitch – or what he used in an effort to get a strikeout once he got to two strikes in the count. That rate for his sinker went from about 16.5% in April and May, all the way up to 29.6% in June and July, but then it plummeted to just 4.5% by the time September rolled around. That’s a big kick to his confidence in his best pitch. That "put away" pitch selection is vital to Lopez’s end results because he’s one of the best at getting to that point when facing opposing hitters, especially those that are right-handed. Last year, he was able to get at least two strikes in the first three pitches against 73% of the right-handed hitters that he faced, according to Inside Edge. Obviously that can be a huge advantage in the grand scheme of things, and indeed it was for the first half of last season when he had a 28.7% strikeout rate. But for whatever reason -- whether it was trying a different pitch mix, or his sinker lost some zip, or he wasn’t locating his pitches as well, or hitters were merely catching up to him -- he was unable to tap into that put away stuff in the second half. That could come across as a grim outlook going forward. Baseball fans suffer from perpetual recency bias, and Lopez’s most recent month of work was uninspiring. However, the Twins don’t need him to be the monster that he was for Baltimore in the first few months of last season. They just need him to be in the same mix as Jax and Thielbar, which is probably somewhere between the two poles that Lopez set last season. The Twins need him to be in that group of guys that can be trusted in a relay that leads to Duran taking on the highest-leverage situations at or near the end of the game. But what do you think? Can Jorge Lopez regain some of his value that the team had in mind when they traded for him? Or did the club get duped into buying-high on an inconsistent arm? Let us know your thoughts and expectations in the comments below. View full article

Caleb Thielbar's resurgence can help us change our perception of youth and potential. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Caleb Thielbar just had his best career season in the Major Leagues. If you were unfamiliar with Thielbar's journey to the Big Leagues, you may think he would be a failed starter that figured things out in the bullpen or perhaps a young pitcher with a live arm that learned how to get MLB hitters out. However, as Twins fans, we know he is neither. Caleb Thielbar pitched 2022 as a 35-year-old that should have been seeing the twilight of his career in view but instead had his best season and made several improvements. You don't typically see that from someone at age 35. Thielbar broke into the Majors as a sinker-slider lefty specialist, a role that is becoming obsolete in MLB. He didn't strike out many hitters, and his fastball mainly sat in the upper 80s. He had an eephus-like curveball that would range into the mid-60s that was always fun to watch hitters buckle at, but it was more of a gimmick pitch. Thielbar was far from that pitcher in 2022. He ditched the sinker in favor of exclusively four seamers, ramped up the velocity, and transformed his fluttering curveball into a bat-missing machine. Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. In 2022 Thielbar saw career bests in fastball, slider, and curveball velocity at 92.8, 81.3, and 73.0 MPH, respectively. Compared to his age 28 season in 2015, the first year Baseball Savant had spin rate data, Thielbar also has seen his spin rates in his fastball jump from 2,091 RPMs in 2015 to 2,298 RPMs in 2022. He made similar progress in his breaking pitches: his slider went from 1,963 RPMs in 2015 to 2,368 in 2022, and his curveball went from 2,127 to 2,455. As a result of these pitch improvements, Thielbar's strikeout rate in his most recent two seasons is more than 10% higher than that of his first two seasons. These are not typical improvements from someone entering their mid to late 30s. This data is nice, but how has it resulted in his pitching? I mentioned earlier that Thielbar was a premier left-handed reliever in 2022, and here is why. According to Baseball Savant, Thielbar completed 2022 in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity against, 100th percentile in hard hit%, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 89th percentile in xSLG. He was one of baseball's best pitchers in limiting hard contact. His improved pitch physicals also helped him miss bats; Thielbar finished 93rd percentile in K% and 80th percentile in swing and miss%. While batted ball data is valuable, it only tells part of the story. Sometimes results can still be underwhelming despite excellent peripherals. (Shoutout, Max Kepler). Fortunately for Thielbar, this is not the case. Using Fangraphs' splits tool, we can see Thielbar finished top ten among left-handed relievers that threw at least 50 innings in FIP (4th 2.42), xFIP (7th 3.07), K% (5th 32.7%), and K%-BB% (4th 25.3%). He also finished in the top 20 in batting average against (20th), OBP against (11th), SLG against (14th), and wOBA against (11th). Potential is a tricky thing to figure out. So many factors go into player development; we only see a small percentage of those as a fan. Perhaps Caleb Thielbar can help us change our perception of youth and potential. You don't have to be 22 years old to get better at baseball, and just because you hit age 30 doesn't mean you have to get worse. Maybe Caleb Thieblar can be a lesson for us when projecting a player's upside because, in 2013, I don't think anyone saw this coming from him. View full article

Remember when you would turn on a Minnesota Vikings game and couldn’t escape the note that Adam Thielen was “One of Us.” A Detroit Lakes native, his story from undrafted out of Minnesota State-Mankato to Pro Bowl wide receiver became boilerplate material. It shouldn’t be lost that the Twins have their own version, and Caleb Thielbar is still overlooked. Image courtesy of Matt Marton (Thiebar), USA Today Sports, Kyle Terada (Thielen), USA TODAY Sports Born in Northfield, Minnesota, Caleb Thielbar calls the same state home as Thielen does. When Thielbar went to South Dakota State, the Jackrabbits were a Division II program. They transitioned to Division I during his final two seasons there. Playing in Brookings, it’s not at all surprising that the lefty went relatively overlooked, but by this point in his Major League career, the story should be equally inspiring. Both Thielen and Thielbar beat the odds when considering how small their towns are. Detroit Lakes does boast a population of nearly 10,000 people, while Thielbar's Randolph claims less than 500. Thielen didn't pick up a football scholarship offer from Mankato until the summer following his senior year, and it took Thielbar multiple stints with the independent version of the Saints before he was discovered again. The Milwaukee Brewers took Thielbar in the 18th round of the 2009 Major League Baseball draft. The only player drafted in that round that year to make a positive impact in the majors is Marcus Stroman, although he didn't sign, went to college at Duke and was drafted in the first round three years later as a pitcher rather than a shortstop. Given the rounds and depth brought in through the draft, Thielbar’s positioning did not at all help his chances for success. It wasn’t until 2011 that Thielbar made his way to the Twins organization, and he didn’t make it to the big leagues for another two years after that. As a 26-year-old reliever, the lefty appeared on May 20 against the Atlanta Braves and threw two shutout innings with a trio of strikeouts. Thielbar posted a 1.76 ERA that season, but the Twins were so bad that his performance was largely overlooked. A year later, in 2014, the strikeouts slipped and so did the overall performance. By 2015, Thielbar was out of affiliated baseball altogether. Using two strong stints with the St. Paul Saints, Thielbar provided the Twins with opportunity to scout him close to home. Boasting sub 3.00 ERA's in 2016 and 2017, he parlayed the success into minor league deals with the Detroit Tigers and Atlanta Braves in 2018 and 2019. Resurfacing during the 2020 covid-shortened season with Minnesota, Thielbar is showcased in a wonderful piece by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Having all but given up hope on professional baseball after Atlanta did not call him up in 2019, Thielbar decided to move on to coaching in the Division II ranks with Augustana. Conveniently for this narrative, the South Dakota school is nicknamed the Vikings, and they play in the same conference as Thielen’s Mavericks. Fortunately for the Twins, Brad Steil and the team's pro scouts saw his numbers and improved "stuff" and convinced Thielbar to give it one more try. Despite having been away from the game for a time, Thielbar posted a 2.25 ERA across 20 innings on a team that hosted a home playoff series. He was still a crafty lefty, but now he brought a new strikeout sprinkle to his game and tallied a career best 9.9 K/9. Fast forward to where we are now, and Thielbar enters 2023 with a career-high $2.4 million salary, and being able to lay claim as one of baseball’s most underrated relievers. For Rocco Baldelli, Thielbar will be one of just two assumed lefties in the pen. Alongside second-year arm Jovani Moran, Thielbar can be expected to provide plenty of high-leverage innings. His 2.42 FIP tells a better story of his 2022 than the 3.49 ERA, and it’s really the career best 12.1 K/9 that deserves excitement. Having dropped his walk rate each of the past two years, and continuing to be stingy with homers, Thielbar is as good of a weapon as Minnesota has in the pen. Although Major League Baseball rules now mandate a pitcher must face three batters, and Thielbar is better against lefties, he is relatively matchup proof. Last season he held right-handed hitters to a .226 average as opposed to .225 for lefties. Righties did get him for a .634 OPS as opposed to just .575 against lefties, but he doesn’t strike fear in a manager when needing to get big outs. For a bullpen that has a fireballer like Jhoan Duran at the back, it’s incredible that someone like Thielbar can bring such a successful different look. Thielbar will never throw triple-digits, and his 92.9 mph average last season was a career-best. Still, generating soft contact along with swings and misses is something he’s done by knowing exactly what he brings to the table. Among Minnesota’s arbitration decisions this winter, Thielbar had to be one of the easiest. He’s now a 36-year-old, and it’s been a decade since he debuted. The journey to get here was an interesting one, but he’s now a key cog for the Twins bullpen in 2023. It’s improbable we see Thielbar named to an All-Star team or given national recognition, but make no mistake, Thielbar is every bit the success story that the Vikings have experienced with Adam Thielen. Sometimes the hometown hero is Joe Mauer, Paul Molitor, or Dave Winfield. Other times, it’s the grinder that has to do everything it takes in order to make their own opportunities. View full article

He may be right; I may be crazy. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey rustled some feathers the other day when, in an article written by Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, the exec said, "[i]f we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings]. We'll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority." It’s a shockingly straightforward answer not saturated with Falvey’s typical lawyer-ish flourishes. Falvey and Miller covered the gambit in reliever talk in that article; I recommend people read the entire piece before outraging (that will never happen). Initially, it’s tough to accept Falvey’s evaluation. I watched the same 2022 Twins team he did, and that squad specialized in blowing games in the late innings. They often failed to hold leads in games that really should have won. Cleveland proved to be a special problem, as Minnesota handed out late wins like Costco free samples as Tyler Thornburg and his ilk tried their darndest to not be a part of the problem. It didn't work, and they finished with the seventh-most meltdowns, a quick-and-dirty Fangraphs stat that uses win probability to determine poor reliever performance. But you don’t need to hear it from a number: that bullpen stunk. Perhaps we’re looking at the issue too broadly, though. Yes, the relief corps was terrible in the first half of the season—Fangraphs pegged them as the 2nd worst in MLB—but they didn’t remain static. Michael Fulmer and Jorge López joined the squad. Caleb Thielber emerged as a tremendous, reliable arm. People with eyes determined that Emilio Pagán should probably not pitch late in games. Evolution took its course. Quietly, so silent that no one cared to notice, the Twins bullpen improved drastically in the second half. Sure, they couldn’t fall further than before, but their bullpen now ranked 4th in MLB in FIP, only sitting behind the blue-blood organizations who consistently dominate the pitching charts. Part of that may be the inherent randomness in reliever performance, but tangible changes appeared to afflict the Twins for the better. Take it from Falvey: "I feel like we saw a lot of progress as last season went on, and within a group that still can make even more progress as they gain experience." Bullpens aren’t made of numbers. People pitch those innings, at least for now. Minnesota’s group includes four arms dancing around one year of MLB service time with another, Jorge Alcalá, who is about as green as the others. Is it unreasonable to believe that Jovani Moran succeeds in an expanded role, Griffin Jax finds another gear, or Trevor Megill fully realizes his strikeout potential? Jhoan Duran will continue melting faces in the near future. The teams main worry will be the complimenting pieces always at risk for the bullpen randomness bug; there's nothing that signing Corey Knebel would do to alleviate that. The issue with the Twins bullpen is perhaps one of perception: because they seemingly blew an incalculable number of games in 2022, they appear incompetent, doomed to blow games again. But that may not be fair. As this author noted in July, relievers are an odd group, one whose jobs rely on the starting pitcher's effectiveness; it could be an all-hand-on-deck night, or Rocco Baldelli may only need the services of two arms the do the job. Given Minnesota’s dreadfully short starting pitching, the bullpen felt an extreme strain. Much of those games were technically the fault of the relief corps, but part of the battle is placing those arms in a position to succeed; Minnesota lost that fight consistently in 2022. And they likely won’t have to carry that weight in 2023. With plenty of wood knocking, the 2023 Twins rotation appears a more trustworthy bunch than their previous counterparts. Swapping Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer for Kenta Maeda and Pablo López gives them a deep rotation. No arm sticks out as truly dominant, but their reliability should feed into the bullpen, removing pressure and allowing its hierarchy to remain intact. The days of Jharel Cotton saving games are over. It is risky. Fewer outcomes in baseball are less aesthetically pleasing than a late blown lead; the win should have been in hand, after all. If López doesn’t regain his Orioles form, Alcalá fails to show the improvement he flashed in 2021, or if any of the breakout 2022 arms regress, it could be a tough summer to bear. View full article

The Minnesota Twins have done plenty this offseason to turn themselves back into a legitimate contender. Coming off of two straight losing seasons, everyone involved is looking for an opportunity to right the postseason record this year. One more reliever could help put them over the top. Namely, Matt Moore. Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Minnesota Twins tried to utilize a handful of projects in the bullpen. With Wes Johnson on board, for half of the season at least, tweaking different pitches and arsenals was a way to unlock a better output. Unfortunately, it didn’t go that way more often than not. Emilio Pagan was a disaster from the get-go, and deadline acquisitions such as Michael Fulmer and Jorge Lopez regressed with Minnesota. Coming into Spring Training, there was little thought that Jhoan Duran would make the Opening Day roster. Then he impressed everyone and never stopped doing so. Once a starter, he could now unleash his triple-digit fastball at the back end of the bullpen, and he consistently slammed the door on the opposition. Had it not been for his dominance though, Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen would have been in much worse shape. To this point, the Twins have done little to supplement their relief corps. Fulmer is seen as an option simply because he remains available, but there are a few signs that regression could be coming even harder for him. Maybe flipping Max Kepler for a big relief arm makes some sense, but we haven’t seen anything to suggest that is likely to this point. Although the free agent market is largely picked over, former starter and one of baseball’s top prospects... a decade ago, Matt Moore is still available. Recently, Adam Friedmann called him one of "The Best Options" still available for the Twins. Working as a starter for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021, Moore was not good. He posted an ERA over 6.00 and contributed just 73 innings. Ultimately, he was moved to the bullpen. Last year, as a reliever with the Texas Rangers, Moore was unbelievable. He put up a 1.95 ERA with a 2.98 FIP across 74 innings. The 4.6 BB/9 was suboptimal, but he struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings and limited the long ball. All told, it may have been the best season of his career. Curiously still unsigned, Moore may be dealing with what Ken Rosenthal described as Matt Strahm’s contract destroying the market. Moore played for just $2.5 million last season in Texas, and he was worth substantially more than that. Now looking for a payday on the heels of a lesser Strahm getting $15 million over two years, teams may be apprehensive to meet his ask. For Minnesota, the allure of Moore is multi-faceted. He’s a left-handed reliever that would pair nicely with Caleb Thielbar. Jovani Moran looked the part as a rookie last year, but walks have always been a bugaboo for him, and consistency could be uncertain entering 2023. Bringing in a veteran like Moore would ease Moran’s workload, and could have him a spot down on the pecking order within the bullpen. The Twins also aren’t up against topping out when it comes to their budget. A $160 million payroll should be seen as a good place to be this year, and they have yet to reach it. Incentives will ultimately push them over the number by season’s end, but they didn’t bring in Carlos Correa simply to stop short of their goals before the year starts. If the front office knew they needed to grab a bat, a catcher, a starter, and a reliever, they have done it all except for addressing the bullpen. Moore probably brings a heftier price tag than the likes of Fulmer, Andrew Chafin, or some other leftover. If there is belief in his transition to the bullpen, that should be a cherry on top of an offseason that puts Minnesota right back at the height of the division. It’s hard to imagine the Twins skipping out on relief help altogether, and thus far they haven’t added an arm outside of the organization that should be expected to crack the 26-man roster. Make Moore an offer and roll with it from there. View full article

You know about the increased velocity, but it's how he's using it that has turned him into an elite left-handed reliever. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports If things had gone differently, Caleb Thielbar might have been in South Dakota, conducting recruiting visits and game-planning for a Division II baseball program as Augustana’s pitching coach. If he didn’t seek help from Driveline Baseball, he might not have added the necessary velocity or maximized each pitch’s effectiveness. If he did not get invited onto USA Baseball’s Premier 12 roster in 2019 – one composed of mostly young prospects – he might not have caught the attention of scouts with his high spin curveball and his now low 90s fastball. Instead, he’s reporting alongside the other pitchers and catchers in Fort Myers next month, returning to the Minnesota Twins as one of the most valuable weapons in the bullpen. Thielbar’s age-35 season was pretty impressive. He struck out 32.7% of hitters faced (20th best among pitchers who faced 200 or more batters). He allowed the lowest hard-hit ball percentages (25.9%) than anyone not named Lucas Luetge. What is unique about Thielbar is that as he ages, his velocity increases – the rare Benjamin Button effect for pitchers. When pitchers increase velocity, they discuss expanding the ceiling and the floor. Thielbar was capable of reaching 92.8 in 2020 but sat at 89.8. The following season, he was topping at 95.3 while sitting at 91.3. This past season, while the ceiling didn’t move much (he maxed at 95.5), his average fastball velocity was now at 92.8. Moreover, Thielbar’s secondary pitches also saw a good amount of velocity spike. In 2020, his curve averaged 68.7 but was up to 73.0 mph in 2022. The slider averaged 77.5 in 2020 and was now up to 81.3. Thielbar had a well-documented transformation at Driveline. Their pitching experts found minor issues with his mechanics overall. But they did find one area for him to attack in his remote training. Plyo drills, prescribed thanks to Driveline’s biomechanics analysis that revealed he had lower than usual hip-shoulder separation at foot plant, helped him improve this area of his mechanics and aided some of his velocity gains. He also acknowledged that he was trying to throw harder, as crazy as that sounds. When you compare the 2020 mechanics to this past year’s, you can visually see someone who indeed appears to be trying to throw harder. Still, Thielbar’s velocity improvement remained below average for major league left-handed relievers. Despite the gains, Thielbar’s fastball was at the 39th percentile for velocity in 2022. Nevertheless, at a 17.9% swinging strike rate, his fastball missed more bats than every reliever besides Pittsburgh’s David Bednar (who threw his at a slightly crisper 96.5 mph on average)*. So how was it so effective? Well that requires a deeper dive, available only to Twins Daily's Caretakers. Our Caretakers take care of the site and in return, we take care of them. That includes us investing in deeper dive stories, like this story, and others by Parker Hageman, Matthew Trueblood and others. Caretakers also get free Winter Meltdown tickets, acknowledgement in the forums, and other perks. If you visit Twins Daily, well, daily, maybe it's time to consider joining our Caretakers. We would love to have you join our little club, and we think you'll love it, too, and not just for the perks. Just click here to get started. View full article

Twins bring back lefty reliever for fourth season with the franchise. Image courtesy of Scott Taetsch, USA Today Sports MINNEAPOLIS – The Twins have re-signed left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, as reported by Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press. Coulombe, 33, has been with the Twins organization since 2020, appearing in 41 relief appearances over the last three season and posting a 2.92 ERA in 49.1 innings pitched in that time. The Twins bullpen is still light on left-handed relievers with Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran as the only two with MLB service time on the 40-man roster. The other lefty currently on the 40-man is Brent Headrick, who spent his 2022 season as a starter between High A Cedar Rapids and Double A Wichita. Coulombe pitched in only 10 games for the Twins in 2022 before being shutdown for the season due to injury. View full article

Friday was the next key moment of the offseason as Major League teams needed to make decisions on their arbitration eligible candidates. Minnesota had already handled some of these situations, but the front office handed out contracts to seven players prior to the 7pm deadline. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Although the morning on Friday was spent unveiling the Minnesota Twins new uniforms, the evening was about exactly who would be playing in them. With a full 40-man roster, the Twins had seven arbitration-eligible candidates left to make decisions on. Earlier in the afternoon, they avoided a decision (or, very clearly made their decision) on third baseman Gio Urshela when they sent him to the Los Angeles Angels for Single-A right-handed pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo. Urshela was set to make nearly $10 million this year, and with Jose Miranda looking like the Opening Day third basemen, there simply was not enough playing time to be had for that kind of investment. Before Friday’s deadline, Danny Coulombe, Jake Cave, and Cody Stashak were all dealt with. Each was arbitration-eligible, currently have been left out of the Twins plans in 2023. Emilio Pagan’s outcome was left until the last minute, and although there was talk of a team-friendly extension, nothing ultimately came to fruition. That left Tyler Mahle, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Lopez, Luis Arraez, Jorge Alcala, and Chris Paddack, and Emilio Pagan as the only players yet outstanding. Earlier this week Nick Nelson went through the looming decisions for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, ranking them in order. Urshela checked in at the top and ultimately was the choice for someone else. Of those remaining, only Paddack found himself with a bit of hand-wringing. As Nick pointed out, it’s a wait-and-see scenario for the former San Diego Padres starter. When dealing Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres prior to Opening Day, Pagan was likely seen as more of a throw-in for the bullpen. Paddack, and his additional year of control, was the prize. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, a second one at that, it remains to be seen what type of pitcher returns, and when. MLB Trade Rumors has Paddack projected at just under a $2.5 million deal for 2023, hardly a substantial amount of a good starter. The problem is that Minnesota will have a dead spot on their 40-man roster until spring training. They can and will place Paddack on the 60-day injured list at that point, but are limited in their construction by one roster spot until then. Coming over from the Reds, Mahle was the Twins prize at the trade deadline and should be expected to be relied upon heavily in the rotation this season. New head trainer Nick Paparesta will look to get and keep him healthy, but Mahle has the makings of a breakout ace if he can get there. Like Mahle, Lopez was acquired at the deadline and left a Baltimore team that he represented as an All-Star closer during the Midsummer Classic. Since returning to professional baseball, Thielbar has been among the most overlooked yet dominant lefties in the game. He’s not exciting, but it doesn’t matter when he’s getting the job done. Rocco Baldelli will hope to have Alcala be the arm he was undoubtedly counting on in the bullpen last season, but a full year off makes that a game of wait-and-see. There was certainly questions as to whether Pagan would be retained after a tumultuous start to his Minnesota tenure. After working with Twins coaching a bit more as the season went on, Pagan was able to find success to the tune of a 2.16 ERA in his final 16 2/3 innings. The Twins front office did work to hammer out a multi-year deal but ultimately just agreed on avoiding a non-tender. The stuff has always profiled well as evidenced by a strong K/9. Presumably, the sides will stick it out for a few months into 2023 to see if there's a turnaround. Rounding out the group was the easiest one of the bunch to call. Arraez is fresh off his first batting title, won a Silver Slugger award, was named an All-Star, and has his sights set on a Gold Glove next. As a reminder, the arbitration deadline is one in which Minnesota had to decide if they would tender a player a contract or not. The sides will then exchange numbers. If the number is agreed to, that will be reported and updated below. If the sides remain apart on their valuations, a hearing could take place at a later date. View full article

The Twins need bullpen help and could certainly use another left hander to mix and match with late in games. Luckily an old friend is looking for a home this winter. Is a reunion with Taylor Rogers in the cards? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have mostly neglected the bullpen in years past and it’s more often than not blown up in their faces. The few additions they typically make are what many consider “bargain bin” pitchers, typically coming off of rough seasons in search of a bounce back. By targeting Taylor Rogers, they can stick to the strategy we’ve seen them use time and time again, though this time the payoff could be much better. Rogers is coming off of a rough season by his standards. In 64 innings he posted a 4.76 ERA. His strikeout rate remained strong at 30.7%, still in the 10th percentile in all of baseball. His walks ticked up slightly as did his homers, though neither to a worrisome degree. While his peripherals were higher than usual, they were far from disastrous (3.32 FIP, 3.26 xFIP). His season was marred by untimely meltdowns, blowing 10 saves between San Diego and Milwaukee. Is there hope Rogers could rebound in his age-32 season? As noted, Rogers was still able to strike out hitters at an impressive clip, and while his average fastball was down over a full tick from 2021, his average of 94.3 mph isn’t far off from his career norm. There isn’t much to suggest that he’s entered the decline of his career quite yet aside from his unsightly ERA. One little talked about factor of Rogers's season is that it appeared San Diego changed the shape of his slider. The pitch was three mph slower than it was in 2021 and had 40.4 inches of drop as opposed to 35.7 in 2021. Instead of the hard breaker we’d grown accustomed to seeing, Rogers was throwing more of a looping breaking ball. While the results didn’t show up on the slider, it was likely easier to differentiate between his out-pitch and his sinker. His slider’s underlying success was about the same, but his fastball produced the worst underlying numbers of his career. It seems like this would be an easy fix for Rogers to make. With the rest of his stuff appearing to be intact, Rogers could be due for a huge bounce-back. At the very least his underlying numbers as is suggest he massively underperformed in 2022. Rogers also had an absurd 16 saves through May 21, as a questionable Padres bullpen leaned on him heavily to begin the season before he began to unravel. We saw a decline in performance from the left-hander in Minnesota during several seasons when Rogers was ridden particularly hard. The Padres may have simply bent him until he broke early in the year, especially given the fact that he was coming off of a finger injury. A Twins bullpen consisting of Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Lopez, etc. is a far cry from the bullpens of Twins past or the Padres early 2022 bullpen in which Rogers was the go-to guy for every situation. With more options, the Twins would be able to avoid any kind of burnout Rogers has suffered from in the past. In regards to the fit, the Twins could greatly use another left-handed option even as Caleb Thielbar has become a certified dude. Having two left-handed options who can also get righties out at a respectable clip would add an entirely new dimension to the Twins bullpen. We often saw Thielbar pitching in late situations regardless of matchup in 2022 when other arms were missing or struggling, leaving the Twins without another effective lefty if a matchup opportunity arose. Rogers would be an easy and familiar fix. Let's be honest. The Twins aren’t going to all of a sudden pony up and sign a legit back end of the bullpen reliever. It’s not in their DNA. There’s a lengthy list of their typical candidates they’ll probably be plucking a few names from in hopes that one of their bounce-back projects finally works out. Instead of hitching their wagon to an Ian Kennedy or Archie Bradley, why not reach out to a familiar face with tangible signs of a rebound in their profile? Not to mention the fact that it would be a homecoming for a homegrown player who was just recently a fan favorite. Taylor Rogers checks a lot of boxes that the Twins are looking for, and a reunion just seems like it would make too much sense. Should we be hoping to see the former anchor of the Twins bullpen added back to a new look core at the back end of games in 2023? Let us know below. View full article

Imagine a pitcher who can touch 104 mph, throws strikes and combines it with elite offspeed stuff. The Twins have never had such an arm… until now. Twins Daily’s 2022 pick for Pitcher of the Year is rookie sensation Jhoan Duran. While the majority of the Twins’ bullpen struggled to close games, Duran was invaluable all season long. He led American League relievers in Win Probability Added (4.59), frequently facing the opponent’s best hitters in the highest leverage spots. Duran’s “clutch” score registered at 1.26, also the highest in the AL. If you looked only at Duran on the surface, you’d crown him as one of the best relievers in baseball. His incredible season was impressive without context. The context, however, is where the magic lies. Duran was a rookie thrust into the tightest spots for a team fighting for the playoffs. He had never pitched in relief before 2022, save for a couple games at Triple-A in 2019 and 2021. After working at the Twins' alternate site in 2020, Duran threw only 16 innings a season ago in St. Paul. He had a 5.06 ERA before an elbow injury shut down his season, putting his future in question. Duran dazzled in spring training and earned a spot on the Opening Day roster. Even the most optimistic believers in Duran’s incredible stuff couldn’t have predicted what came next. Among pitchers who threw at least 250 offerings in 2022, Duran’s four-seamer ranked first in average velocity (100.8). His splitter also paced the league at a ridiculous 96.4 mph. Duran unquestionably has the best raw stuff in Twins history and one of the most electrifying repertoires the game has ever seen. There have been plenty of young pitchers with electric arms but Duran’s command is the separator. His 27.4% strikeout-to-walk rate was tied for 10th among qualified relievers, ahead of Cleveland phenom Emmanuel Clase. Duran throws extremely hard and he throws strikes. That combo led to nearly three Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference. Duran worked through early pitch-selection pains and got better as the season went on. Only two AL relievers had a lower ERA than Duran in the second half (1.05), minimum of 25 innings. The rookie was also lights-out in front of the home crowd, posting a 0.83 ERA at Target Field, the lowest in a season in the park’s history. Handing your most pivotal bullpen spot to a rookie can be a risky proposition, given the pressure of that role. Duran was unfazed. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Duran held opponents to a 1-for-25 mark, with the lone hit a single. In high-leverage situations, opponents hit .180 with a .489 OPS. Duran’s pulse is impossible to see. Twins fans were understandably sad to see the team trade Eduardo Escobar at the 2018 deadline. The reward, however, looks to be potentially game-changing. Duran has instantly become one of the game’s best relievers and he’s under contract with the Twins through at least 2027. He’s a joy to watch. HONORABLE MENTIONS Sonny Gray The Twins traded their first-round pick from a year ago for Sonny Gray, who was very good when healthy in his first season as a Twin. Gray had trouble staying healthy and pitching deep into games, but his 3.08 ERA and 3.41 FIP show he’s still a frontline starter. Griffin Jax Also in his first season as a full-time reliever, Griffin Jax enjoyed a massive spike in velocity and effectiveness. Jax posted a solid 3.36 ERA in 65 games, regularly setting up Duran as the second-best reliever in the bullpen. Jax averaged over 95 mph with his four-seamer and produced a 37% whiff rate on his elite, high-spin slider. Caleb Thielbar Caleb Thielbar is another example of why we should trust the expected statistics. A ballooned ERA was backed by much better metrics early in 2022. Thielbar was outstanding in the second half with a 1.50 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 24 innings. The lefty filled in more than admirably for Taylor Rogers. Joe Ryan Joe Ryan set the Twins’ single-season rookie record for strikeouts, backed by a 3.55 ERA in a team-leading 147 innings. Ryan was exceptional down the stretch with a 2.81 ERA over his last nine starts. Still just a rookie, Ryan has been impressive for many of his now 32 starts in the big leagues. View full article

Not ideal. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika, USA TODAY Sports Box Score Louie Varland: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Caleb Thielbar (-.280), Jose Miranda (-.178), Matt Wallner (-.128) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) The game’s action started quickly; as fans looked for seats, ordered popcorn, and organized their children, the Twins' offense clocked in for work, plating a pair of runs off Lucas Giolito in the 1st inning. Three straight singles from Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, and Gio Urshela loaded the bases—and while a Gary Sánchez strikeout incited groans from an often apathetic crowd—Nick Gordon broke the mold, delivering a ringing two-run double into the right field corner. Giolito was in trouble early. On the flipside, Louie Varland easily settled into his start; the St. Paul native breezed through the opening frame and worked around a walk in the 2nd inning, supporting the two-run advantage his offense had gifted him. Trouble brewed in the 3rd inning, however; Matt Wallner awkwardly misplayed a line drive, allowing Josh Harrison to score from first base while Romy Gonzalez—the fortunate individual who hit the ball—scampered safely to third base. Gonzalez traveled home two batters later thanks to a Mark Payton single. The game remained a stalemate through the middle innings; neither starter found their dominant stuff, but they were both effective, resiliently tamping down minor attempts at scoring. The White Sox found the upper hand in the 6th inning, ambushing a freshly minted Griffin Jax for two singles and a run off an Andrew Vaughn sacrifice fly. The Twins struck back in the bottom half of the inning with some old-school small-ball. After Sánchez walked to begin the inning, Billy Hamilton—always the speed demon—took his spot at first base. In perhaps the least surprising move of all-time, Hamilton stole 2nd base and then claimed 3rd after Gordon struck out. Gilberto Celestino worked a mature plate appearance, walking in a full count to set up Ryan Jeffers in a pinch-hitting scenario. With a strike to his name, Jeffers laid down a perfect push-bunt towards 1st base, a play so masterful that he even beat out the throw to 1st base. The game was now tied. After an uneventful 7th inning, action began in the 8th; Caleb Thielbar entered the game in relief of Jorge López and coaxed a sky-high pop-up from Payton. Unfortunately, Gordon never comfortably found the ball, and it slipped out of his glove, allowing Payton to dash to second base safely. The White Sox pounced immediately; José Abreu—as he always does—struck a double off the wall in right-center field, scoring the go-ahead run. That final score proved to be the dagger; the Twins fell to Kendall Graveman in the 8th, and—despite a walk from Correa in the 9th—Liam Hendriks silenced their bats in the final frame, halting Minnesota from sweeping their final home series. Notes: Louie Varland has struck out three batters in three straight starts; he remains winless in his MLB career The Twins netted two hits outside of the 1st innings Luis Arraez stands atop of the AL batting race with a .315 mark; Aaron Judge is 2nd at .313 Caleb Thielbar received his first loss since August 20th against Texas Matt Wallner earned his first MLB steal in the 4th inning Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins will head to Detroit to start a three-game series on Friday; Joe Ryan will start opposite Tyler Alexander. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet: View full article

The Twins won’t be in the playoffs, but in their final series at home, they made sure to show their appreciation to fans attending the game at Target Field by securing a series win against the White Sox. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Josh Winder, 4 2/3 IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 6K (91 pitches, 60 strikes, 65.9%) Home Runs: none Top 3 WPA: Jake Cave (.236), Matt Wallner (.185), Gio Urshela (.158) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Facing mathematical elimination from playoff contention in case of a loss (or a Seattle Mariners win), the Twins got off on the wrong foot, but they put on some fight. After a quick, scoreless first inning, the White Sox jumped to a quick two-run lead on three consecutive singles and a sacrifice fly in the top of the second. It was the first time in the series Chicago was ahead – or even scored a run, for that matter. But that wouldn’t last long. Right in the bottom of that same inning, Minnesota rallied back to snatch the lead, manufacturing three runs. The Twins' response was quick, with the three runs coming on four consecutive hits off Johnny Cueto. Jose Miranda led off the inning with a single, and he scored after a Gio Urshela double and a Jake Cave single. Cueto got a mound visit, but it didn't stop Matt Wallner from hitting a long double that pushed both Urshela and Cave across, making it 3-2 Minnesota. Josh Winder settled in after a rough second inning and delivered two scoreless after that. Then, the offense came through for him once agai, and scored two more runs in the bottom of the fourth. Cueto got ambushed again by the heart of the Twins’ order: Urshela, Cave, and Wallner hit three consecutive off him, enough to score Urshela and leave two men on with no outs. Ryan Jeffers grounded into a double play, and Cave scored Minnesota’s fifth run. Winder pitched himself into a jam in the fifth, and he was pulled before he could complete the inning. Josh Harrison led off the inning with a single, and Winder hit Romy Gonzalez on the next at-bat. The Twins' rookie managed to retire the following two batters, but before he could close out the inning, Jose Abreu hit an RBI single to score Chicago's third run, prompting a pitching change by Rocco Baldelli. Caleb Thielbar came in to close out the fifth, and he also delivered a scoreless sixth. It was time the offense showed up again, and the middle of the lineup got to Cueto again. Urshela (single) and Cava (double) got back-to-back one-out hits, and Cueto decided to intentionally walk Wallner next, loading the bases. He got the second out, but Chicago made a pitching change, and with reliever Jake Diekman pitching, Gilberto Celestino drew a walk to bring home another run, making it once again a three-run game. Michael Fulmer nearly allowed the Sox to rally in the seventh, but he barely escaped, limiting the damage to just one run. Harrison and Gonzalez opened up the inning with back-to-back singles, and Andrew Vaughn hit a one-out single to score Harrison. Fulmer then hit Abreu next to load the bases, but after a mound visit, he managed to get an inning-ending double-play. But once again, the Chicago run was useless, as Miranda doubled in the bottom of the inning to score Carlos Correa, who drew a leadoff walk moments earlier. Arráez drives in a run, ties Judge for the AL batting title lead We’re following Luis Arraez’s chase of Aaron Judge for the Rod Carew American League Batting Title on our social media with the Luis Arráez Watch”. Coming into tonight, Arráez had a .313 batting average, with Judge leading the league with .314. The Twins’ infielder saw his average drop to .312 after starting the game going 0-for-2, but he got a single in the fifth. Then, after Ryan Jeffers drew a leadoff walk in the eighth and pinch-runner Billy Hamilton stole second, Arráez got his second hit of the night and drove in Minnesota’s eighth and final run. With that hit, Arráez drove his batting average back up to .313, and with Judge going 1-for-4 in the Yankees game against the Blue Jays, the two players are now tied for the AL batting average lead, both sitting at .313. Make sure to check Twins Daily’s Twitter and Instagram daily to get all the updates on the AL Batting Title race, as Arráez can become the first Twin to win the title since Joe Mauer did in 2009. Postgame interview What’s Next? The two division foes close out the series on Thursday afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled for 12:10 pm CDT. Minnesota will try to complete the sweep of the South Siders with Louie Varland (5.06 ERA) on the mound, while Chicago will try to avoid it with Lucas Giolito ( 5.05 ERA) starting. After the game, the Twins get on the road for a six-game road trip, three against the Tigers in Detroit and three more against these same White Sox in Chicago. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Henriquez 0 68 0 0 0 68 Duran 24 0 0 15 0 39 Jax 27 0 0 10 0 37 Megill 0 32 0 0 0 32 Fulmer 9 0 0 0 22 31 Thielbar 13 0 0 0 15 28 López 11 0 0 0 16 27 Moran 0 6 0 0 12 18 Pagán 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

The Twins topped the Angels on the back of the bullpen and some big bats coming through in important situations. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Joe Ryan: 7 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (69 pitches, 41 strikes (59.4%)) Home Runs: Gary Sanchez (15) Top 3 WPA: Gio Urshela (0.169), Gary Sanchez (0.146), Jake Cave (0.100) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Eight is Enough, at least tonight When a team's bats are struggling, as the Twins certainly have of late, it sure is nice to see a pitching staff toss a shutout. When a team gets a short start from a starter, it is really nice to have the offense provide a little cushion and help deliver the team a relatively easy, low-stress win. The Twins jumped on the board first in the bottom of the first when Gio Urshela ripped a ground-rule double to score Jose Miranda. Gary Sanchez followed with a sacrifice fly to make it 2-0. In the second frame, Carlos Correa singled to score Jermaine Palacios and give them a 3-0 lead. However, the Angels two big bats tied the game in the third inning. Mike Trout doubled to score Livan Soto. Shohei Ohtani followed with a two-run single. In the fourth inning, Jermaine Palacios just missed a home run but flew out deep enough to left field to score Jake Cave who had led off with a double. Palacios had some quality plate appearances on Saturday, but he is now hitless in his past 31 at-bats. It is the longest hitless streak since Oswaldo Arcia went 0-for-31 in 2014. The big blast came in the bottom of the fifth inning when Gary Sanchez came to the plate with two runners on base. He took a 3-0 pitch down the middle and crushed it well into the left field bleachers. Sanchez's 15th homer gave the Twins a little breathing room with a 7-3 lead. The Sanchez homer was the 153rd of his MLB career, so it is surprising that it was the first that he has hit on a 3-0 count. Gilberto Celestino drove in Urshela with a ground out to give the Twins their eighth run which proved to be enough on this night. The Twins snapped their five-game losing streak and can tie the season series with the Angels with a win on Sunday. Big Boppers Jose Miranda took off with a big July, and while he has still been quite solid in August and September, there is no question that he has cooled down. On Saturday night, Miranda had three hits in his first three at-bats. His first-inning single ended an 0-for-14 streak. In addition, Gio Urshela went 3-for-4, but as you can see from his WPA, he had a couple of big hits to help the team win. Luis Arraez had two hits, and clearly, the big hit of the game came off the bat of Sanchez. Arraez Watch Luis Arraez batted third and played first base on Saturday night. He went 2-for-4 in the game so his average now sits at .313. He recorded multiple hits for the 46th time this season. Xander Bogaerts went 2-for 4. He is hitting .315. Aaron Judge went 0-for-3 with a walk, so his average is now down to .314. Jose Abreu went 0-for-4 to drop his average to .305. Nathaniel Lowe (Rangers) went 0-for-3 with a walk, so his average fell to .305 as well. Bullpen Provides Zero(es) Joe Ryan went just four innings, but the bullpen really stepped it up in this game to help the team to a win. However, Ryan did record five strikeouts and is now one strikeout shy of setting the Twins rookie record. Francisco Liriano struck out 144 batters in his 2006 rookie season. Griffin Jax received his seventh win of the season. He walked one and struck out one in a scoreless fifth inning. Caleb Thielbar came in and looked dominant. He struck out the first two batters before the inning ended on a strikeout. Michael Fulmer only needed nine pitches to work a perfect seventh inning. Jorge Lopez got two groundouts and a strikeout in a perfect eighth frame. Thielbar, Fulmer and Lopez faced a total of nine batters and needed a combined 33 pitches. Then the Twins bullpen ace, Jhoan Duran came on and struggled, but didn’t really struggle. He gave up one run on three hits, though none of the three hits was hit hard. The bases were loaded with one out and Mike Trout coming to the plate. Duran had already thrown a lot of pitches, so I’m sure the bench was getting a little anxious. However, Duran got Trout to line out to right field for a sacrifice fly before getting Ohtani on a slow roller to end the game. What’s Next? The Twins will send RHP Dylan Bundy (8-7, 4.78 ERA) to the mound on Sunday to attempt to gain a series win over the Angels. The team will face Jose Suarez who is 6-8 with a 4.11 ERA. The game is scheduled for 1:10 pm. On Monday, the Twins will have their final off day of the year. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Thielbar 23 0 0 10 13 46 Megill 17 0 0 28 0 45 Fulmer 23 0 0 0 9 32 Moran 0 0 31 0 0 31 Jax 4 0 0 0 27 31 Duran 0 0 0 0 24 24 Pagán 0 0 0 23 0 23 López 0 0 0 0 11 11 Henriquez 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article