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By now, sports are synonymous with betting. Teams have partnerships with gambling outlets, and the money flowing from the outlets is beyond substantial. Certain feats are tied to individuals and teams each season, with the Twins having more than a few of intrigue this year. Looking at who should surpass expectations has always been fun. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports From a baseline perspective, the win total is a point of contention each year. While not predictive of standings in the vein that Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA attempts, over/under win totals attempt to place a value on a team's overall ability. This season Bovada has the Minnesota Twins checking in at 83.5 wins while giving them equal odds (+150) to finish either first or second in the AL Central. Ending with the win total, here are some thoughts on Twins over/under lines being offered for the 2023 season: Byron Buxton HR Total - 27.5 Despite his speed, Byron Buxton’s best swing has always looked like it would produce more of a power hitter than someone that needed to steal bases. We have seen that play out in recent seasons, and despite playing just 92 games last year, he blasted 28 home runs. On a per-game basis, Buxton’s power is in line with Mike Trout and some of the best sluggers across all of baseball. Minnesota would probably like to see Buck reign it in a bit more at the plate, leaning into a higher level of discipline. He will still run into his fair share of long balls, which comes down to the number of games he can remain healthy for. Hoping that this is the season for the fluky injuries to stop; Buxton playing anything north of 100 games should allow him to cruise by his home run total. It’s a risk betting on his health, but give me the over here. Carlos Correa Batting Average - .280 Batting average is not the indication of results that it was once viewed as, but there is still plenty of value to be placed on it. Last season the Twins star shortstop hit .291 across 136 games. That included a significant slump during the middle of the season. He is a .279 career hitter and has hit over .280 just twice in his eight-year career. I don’t think I’d touch this line, but I could certainly see an argument for the over. With the lack of a shift, Correa could see a few more hits fall, and he gets the benefit of a normal Spring Training where he can settle into his new home. Overall, I think Correa’s slash line trends more towards on-base and slugging, so while his OPS should rise, the batting average may fall. Give me the under on this one. Pablo Lopez/Joe Ryan Wins - 10.5 Pitcher wins have very little value in and of themselves, but they will forever remain a tracked statistic. Last year, Rocco Baldelli was hamstrung with regard to how deep his starters could go in a game. That shouldn’t be the case, given the depth he has this year, and that should benefit the pitching staff as a whole. Joe Ryan led the club with 13 wins last year and shows up in this space for 2023. Lopez was reason enough to trade Luis Arraez, and he is coming off a 10-win season of his own. In the Minnesota rotation, both players should be expected to have plenty of offensive backing, and a better bullpen should protect their leads. Eleven wins is a substantial number, but a good Minnesota team should have a couple of double-digit winners. I’m not sure these are the exact two, but I think at least one should get there. I’ll take the over on Lopez and let it be. Minnesota Twins Wins - 83.5 Looking at the division, I think it’s fair to suggest that Minnesota is right there at the top. Cleveland didn’t do much to get better this offseason, and while they are the reigning champs, it may have been more to do with taking advantage of a situation. Chicago still strikes me as the roster to look out for, and while Pedro Grifol is better in charge than Tony La Russa, that may not be enough to vault them up. Even if the Twins can’t grab the AL Central title again, and I wouldn’t bet against that, they should surpass 84 wins. This looks like a group that can fly past 90 and even a disastrous finish, as the walking wounded saw them win 78 last season. The pitching depth is there, and while the lineup looks different, this team is constructed to compete. I’m taking the over. What are your favorite bets or over/under tallies for the 2023 Twins? View full article

I visited the future, and you won't believe what I saw! Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Jeff Hanisch, Jordan Johnson – USA Today Sports After reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out. What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season. Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team? Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs. Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial. Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025. A Star is Born While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox. Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees. One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins! What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins! View full article

Injuries were one of the main reasons the Twins couldn't hang on to the 2022 AL Central title. Entering this spring, the Twins hoped to enter the season with a healthy roster, but injuries are starting to mount. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Every team will deal with injuries during the 2023 season, and that's one of the reasons the Twins added depth at nearly every position this winter. Here are the known injuries this spring and how each will impact the Opening Day roster. Jose Miranda: Right Shoulder Soreness Miranda planned to join Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, but a shoulder injury has forced him to withdraw his name. He was the talk of TwinsFest after spending the off-season getting in better shape to handle the rigors of a 162-game season. Last season, he hit .268/.325/.426 (.751) with 25 doubles and 15 home runs, but he tired down the stretch. The Twins are handing him the reins at third base, but his shoulder has limited him to designated hitter duties in recent games. He hit two home runs in a game over the weekend, so his hitting clearly isn't impacted by the soreness. Roster Impact: Miranda can switch to first base and DH if Alex Kirilloff isn't ready for Opening Day. The Twins have multiple third-base options, including Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, or Willi Castro. Nick Gordon: Mild-to-Moderate High Ankle Sprain High ankle sprains can impact players differently, but initial reports are that Gordon avoided a more severe injury. He was in a walking boot following Friday's game and will be off his foot to start the week. Gordon is looking to build off a breakout 2022 season where he was named the Twins Daily Most Improved Player. In 136 games, he hit .272/.316/.427 (.743) with 41 extra-base hits and a 113 OPS+. Roster Impact: Gordon was going to get time as designated hitter when the club was facing right-handed starters. He's also the backup at multiple outfield positions. If he's not ready to start the year, another left-handed bat like Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner might make the roster. Byron Buxton: Right Knee Surgery Buxton has yet to appear in a spring training game after having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee at the beginning of October. The Twins are taking it slow with Buxton while he ramps up for the season. Big league regulars see limited action in early spring training games, and that's one reason to hold Buxton out of these contests. He can get more focused work in the batting cages and on the back fields. Minnesota wants Buxton to play more than 100 games this season, which might mean he sees limited in-game action throughout the spring. Roster Impact: The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide depth in center field behind Buxton. In recent seasons, Taylor has been a starter for the Royals, and he can assume that role if/when Buxton is hurt. Jorge Polanco: Left Knee Tendinitis Polanco was placed on the IL for the first time in his career last season, but that doesn't mean injuries haven't impacted him in the past. He's a player that has dealt with ankle and knee injuries for multiple seasons. Like Buxton, Polanco is taking things slowly at the start of spring training with more time in the training room. In 2022, he hit .235/.346/.405 (.751) with a 117 OPS+ and 32 extra-base hits. Roster Impact: Farmer or Solano can share time at second base if Polanco misses time. Two of the organization's top prospects, Brooks Lee and Eduoard Julien, have been praised this spring. Either player could be an option if Polanco has to miss significant time. Alex Kirilloff: Wrist Surgery According to reports, Kirilloff continues to make progress from the wrist surgery that ended his 2022 season. It was the second consecutive season he missed time with a wrist injury. The Twins are taking it slow with him, and he likely will play in spring training games later in March. He is taking live batting practice with no pain in his wrist, which is a good sign from where he has been the last two years. Kirilloff was considered the team's top prospect before his debut, so hopes remain high for his future. Roster Impact: He's on track to be the team's first baseman or designated hitter to start the year. Solano, Miranda, Farmer, and Joey Gallo will get time at first base when Kirilloff isn't available. Trevor Larnach: Lower Body Injury Larnach has been dealing with a lower-body injury, but the Twins expect him to play in games this week, including defensive duties in the outfield. In 2022, Larnach posted a 104 OPS+ but was limited to 51 big-league games because of a core muscle surgery. Larnach, a former first-round pick, was ranked as one of the team’s top prospects, and he’s shown signs of his powerful bat. The Twins hope he can put his injury concerns behind him and slide into the middle of the line-up. Roster Impact: Solano’s addition initially pushed Larnach out of the team’s Opening Day roster. With the other injuries on this list, Larnach can break camp on the 26-man roster if he is healthy. Gilberto Celestino: Left Thumb Surgery Celestino ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, which has six to eight weeks of recovery. Injuries forced the Twins to use Celestino in 122 games last season. In his age-23 season, he hit .238/.313/.302 (.615) with a 80 OPS+ and 15 extra-base hits. He has seen limited action at Triple-A, and this season was his opportunity to establish himself at that level. It is an important season for him to reestablish his long-term value to the Twins, but now that's pushed back a few months. Roster Impact: Celestino was scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he's had plenty of big-league experience over the last two seasons. Minnesota can move Celestino to the 60-day IL if they need the roster spot for a waiver claim, a signing, or a non-roster invitee. Jordan Balazovic: Broken Jaw The Twins made a statement when Balazovic became the first (and only) player in the team's first round of cuts. He broke his jaw in an incident at a bar in downtown Fort Myers. Balazovic has significantly fallen over the last calendar year as he entered 2022 as one of baseball's top-100 prospects. Last season, he arrived at spring training with a left knee injury and could never fully recover. In 23 appearances (72 2/3 innings), he posted a 7.68 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP. He ended the season on a high note, but now he will have to wait to build off that performance. Roster Impact: Balazovic wasn't in the running for the Opening Day roster, but he is entering a pivotal season in his professional career. He saw multiple starters pass him on the way to the big leagues last season, and he didn't need another setback. Austin Martin: UCL Sprain Martin has a UCL sprain in his right elbow, which means the team will shut him down from throwing and hitting. Sometimes this injury results in Tommy John surgery, which happened in recent years with players like Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien. Martin had a redeeming September and showcased those improvements in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a .936 OPS. He was having a solid start to his spring, and the team expected him to impact the big-league roster at some point in 2023. Roster Impact: Martin was likely scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he was an injury or two away from making his debut. Now he will have to wait and see if rest and rehab can help him avoid going under the knife. Ronny Henriquez: Right Posterior Elbow Soreness Henriquez made his big-league debut last season after the Twins acquired him as part of the Mitch Garver trade. He made 24 appearances (95 1/3 innings) at Triple-A with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. In St. Paul, Henriquez was five years younger than the average age of the competition so some struggles can be expected against older hitters. The Saints rotation is set up to be loaded with top prospects, so finding him innings in a starting role might be challenging. Roster Impact: Henriquez had an outside chance to make the team as a reliever, but the team may want him to continue to start. He’s only made 16 appearances at Double-A, so the team could send him to that level to start games. Which injuries will impact the Twins the most in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Rocco Baldelli and the Twins face a challenge in developing a usage model for Byron Buxton that maximizes his impact while also minimizing wear and tear on a body that's been ravaged throughout his career. The last MVP season from a Twins player might offer a blueprint to follow. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Winning a Most Valuable Player award is the pinnacle of individual achievement in baseball and most any other sport. It's the honor of a lifetime for athletes, placing their names alongside true greats in the history books while celebrating an unparalleled contribution to winning. Beyond all that, Byron Buxton is uniquely incentivized to prove deserving of this particular accolade. His contract structure with the Twins is such that Buxton will get an extra $8 million for winning MVP, adding more than 50% on top of his $15 million base salary. (He receives significant bonuses for finishing anywhere in the top 10, but that's obviously the biggest.) Even with their payroll already stretched to a record high, the Minnesota Twins would be more than happy to pay out those extra millions, given what it would entail for the team. The trouble, of course, is that Buxton has generally come nowhere near making enough plate appearances to have a viable shot. The superstar talent presents a tough balancing act for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins: How best to utilize him in a way that gets him on the field enough to put himself in the MVP conversation, while also managing his workload to minimize injury risk and keep him strong through the end of the year? Last season, the team was essentially forced into the position of trying to navigate this situation on the fly due to an early knee injury, which severely limited his availability. This year, they can aim to avoid the same outcome by planning around a playing time model that maximizes Buxton's impact while taking it relatively easy on his body. For an example of how this might shake out, we need only look back to 2009 when Joe Mauer put forth the last MVP season by a Twins player. Joe Mauer and the 70-15-15 Model One of the most interesting things about Mauer's MVP season is that he missed the entire first month, making his season debut on May 1st. (And, unforgettably, homering in his very first at-bat.) In the spring, Mauer dealt with an inflamed sacroiliac joint – which sits at the base of the spine – and it kept him out of action for nearly four weeks. Once he returned, he was able to play almost every day, making 109 starts at catcher and 28 at designated hitter on the way to accruing 606 plate appearances – plenty to establish him as the unanimous choice for MVP. Mauer's dispersal of games spent at catcher, DH, or not playing shook out roughly like this: Catcher: 70% DH: 15% Off Days: 15% The hope, obviously, is that Buxton will not have to miss a month of the season this year. But Mauer's example shows how the Twins can mix in ample rest days and still get Buck to the number of plate appearances required for legitimate MVP consideration (and to trigger his contractual PA bonuses, which hit at 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625). Planning around this model would essentially mean giving Buxton one day off and one day at DH each week. The comparison between these two is a fitting one to me for a couple of key reasons: Like Mauer, Buxton derives a huge portion of his value from playing excellent defense at one of the most premium positions on the field. In 2009, the Twins were comfortable giving Mauer semi-frequent days at DH and negating that part of his value because they had a backup they were very comfortable with in Mike Redmond. This year, the addition of Gold Glover Michael A. Taylor as Buxton's top backup in center provides a similar luxury. While Buxton is ostensibly healthy at this juncture, the team's conservative approach to moving him along this spring signals a cautionary mindset geared toward prevention. The 70-15-15 model as a guiding principle feels like the sweet spot to me. How Are the Twins Envisioning Buxton's Usage? When I was in camp last week, I took the opportunity to ask Baldelli straight-up if he had a ratio in mind for Buxton's time spent at center field versus designated hitter this year. In 2022, 52 of Buck's 86 starts came in center field compared to 34 at DH, equating to a 60-40 balance clearly driven more by necessity than preference. Unsurprisingly, the Twins manager – notoriously coy about revealing his future plans – was noncommittal in response, describing it as "probably at this point still an unanswerable question." "I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that." Not the most fulfilling answer, but I guess I can't blame Rocco for not wanting to get specific, especially with the season still weeks away and Buxton still yet to make his spring debut. It's all very theoretical at this point. At the same time, this is something the team needs to be very thoughtful and strategic about. While many sports fans may loathe the term "load management," it's a paramount aspect of handling Buxton properly. In an interview with MLB Network Radio later in the week, general manager Thad Levine was a bit more open about acknowledging this reality. "What’d we try to do this offseason, to try to enhance his ability to stay on the field is, I think we really tried to build out our depth," Levine explained. "Going out and getting guys like Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, two additional players in addition to Max Kepler ... who could all play some center field, give Byron some opportunities to contribute as a DH, something that I think Rocco really believes can really extend his plate appearances over the course of the season." You don't say? Levine continued: "The reality was unfortunately he sustained an injury very early last season, ended up playing with it most of the year until effectively he couldn’t anymore. We’re hopeful we can avoid that early-season injury, we’re hopeful that we can sort of insulate him by having some really excellent-caliber defensive players out there who can allow him to DH a little bit more without a known drop-off in our lineup." While Baldelli might dream about playing Buxton for 162 games in center field, it's not realistic and would frankly be an irresponsible thing to attempt, in light of his history. Given his druthers, I have no doubt Buck would push to do exactly that, but it's incumbent upon the manager and front office to be smart and look at the big picture, even if Buxton is feeling good early in the season. As Mauer's precedent shows, there's a way to do it and still put the 29-year-old in good a position to earn his payday and lead the team to glory. View full article

The Twins don't have a player like Nelson Cruz or Jim Thome to plug into the designated hitter spot daily. So, what does that mean for the team's DH role during the 2023 campaign? Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports Throughout the Twins' history, some tremendous players have filled the designated hitter role. For some players like Tony Oliva, the shift to DH was necessary because of mounting injuries. For other players like Paul Molitor and Jim Thome, it was a line-up spot to fill near the end of a Hall of Fame career. The Twins don't have a player like that on the 2023 roster, so their approach to the DH role will look similar to recent seasons. Rocco Baldelli told reporters, "We're going to rotate the DH. You could probably almost name every guy out there in the regular lineup that's going to have some time at DH. There's a lot of them. We're going to have some options." He went on to say, "I actually think it's a good way to use the DH slot. If you have Nelson Cruz like we've had or David Ortiz and a few guys that really fit in that spot well, you're going to go with guys like that. But I think for most clubs the best way to do it is rotate that thing around." Keeping Players In the Line-Up Since Nelson Cruz's departure, the Twins have left the DH spot open to provide a partial rest day for a player while keeping his bat in the line-up. Last season, Minnesota started 15 different players at DH, including Luis Arraez (34), Byron Buxton (34), and Gary Sanchez (32), starting more than 30 games at DH. Arraez and Buxton were battling injuries, so it was a way to take stress off their bodies on the defensive side of the ball. Buxton made it clear this spring that he doesn't like serving in the DH role. "Mentally, it's very hard," he said because he has to stay warm between at-bats. He's not just watching the game from the dugout and waiting for his turn to bat. Buxton is down in the cage, taking more swings than if he were playing in the outfield. Even with this disdain for the role, Buxton will likely lead the team in appearances as the DH. The Twins are a better team with him in the line-up, and the DH spot allows him to make sure his body is prepared for the rigors of a 162-game schedule. Besides Buxton, plenty of other veterans will see time at DH in 2023, including Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Nick Gordon. Those players are the tip of the iceberg for the DH role, especially if the Twins want to employ different line-up strategies. Platoon Options The Twins can also utilize a platoon strategy depending on the pitching match-up. Nick Gordon showed tremendous improvements with his power numbers in last season's second half, as his OPS improved by 76 points. As a lefty, most of his damage came against right-handed pitchers by hitting .289/.329/.465 (.793). Gordon is out of minor league options, so he will be on the Opening Day roster, and DH at-bats might be one way to get him into the line-up regularly. Other infielders can benefit from being used in a platoon situation. Kyle Farmer looked to be the team's starting shortstop before the club re-signed Correa. Now a bench player, Farmer will get starts around the infield, but he should be in the line-up whenever the team faces a lefty. Last season, he destroyed lefties by hitting .309/.380/.568 (.948) with 19 extra-base hits in 139 at-bats. Minnesota officially added Donovan Solano to the big-league roster in the last week. The 35-year-old has averaged around 90 games per season over the last two years. As a righty, his OPS was 66 points higher (.770 OPS vs. .704 OPS) when facing left-handed pitchers last season. The Solano signing has multiple facets, including him getting time at DH and first base. Other DH Options The Twins have a trio of young corner outfielders trying to earn time on the big-league roster. Alex Kirilloff is penciled in as the everyday first baseman, but he is slowly returning from offseason wrist surgery. Minnesota will be cautious with him throughout the spring, and there's a chance he will need regular days off to start the year. After the Twins signed Solano, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner seem destined for St. Paul. Both bats will impact the big-league roster this season, and some of those appearances will come in a DH role. Leaving the DH spot open provides the Twins with flexibility, but there isn't a player that would be considered a big bat off the bench. This DH strategy may work for the Twins, but they have to hope it can keep more players healthy in 2023. Outside of Buxton, who do you think makes the most appearances as the designated hitter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

With a new season soon to get underway, the Minnesota Twins arguably have a new top prospect in the system for the fourth time in as many springs. Looking back through top emerging talents of years past – even while limiting our sample to the past decade – serves as a powerful reminder of the folly in casting confident outlooks for even the most 'sure thing' prospects. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, Jonathan Dyer, Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports MLB prospect rankings were tough to find back in the early 1980s. Coverage of the minor leagues was not exactly prominent before the internet's takeover. However, Baseball America does have archives of its rankings dating back to that time, which is pretty fun. You may be unsurprised to learn that in 1984, ahead of his major-league arrival, Kirby Puckett ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Twins. It was well earned. Drafted third overall in '82, he was an immediate sensation, batting .382 in his pro debut and reaching the majors for good within two years. Little did anyone know back then, but Puckett would go on to epitomize the thrilling highs and tragic lows that can come with a life in pro baseball – the variance involved in even a legendary Hall of Fame career. He was a shining star of the game for 10 years, and a World Series hero, before it all came crashing down in sudden and devastating fashion. "Don't take it for granted,'' Puckett reportedly told his teammates in 1996, after informing them of his retirement due to an irreversible eye condition. "Tomorrow is not promised to any of us, so enjoy yourself.'' His post-playing life became an even sadder story, but I'm not looking to dwell on that. Instead, I want to reflect on his parting sentiments toward the game, his fellow players, and his fans. Puckett was fortunate (as were we) that he was able to achieve the iconic heights he did. The same can be said for subsequent top prospects and MVPs like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. These players had the chance to establish their enduring legacies, even if all three primes were cut short by freak injuries beyond their control. In recent years, we've seen that even a truncated run of notoriety like theirs is by no means assured for the brightest and most touted talents to come through the franchise. A lookback through the successive No. 1-ranked prospects in the organization over the past 10 years, according Twins Daily's lists, reminds us that even for the most promising, nothing is ever promised. Hopefully it also provides a bit of valuable perspective, with a nod to Kirby's advice about enjoying today and not worrying about tomorrow. Twins Daily #1 Prospects Over the Years Byron Buxton: 2013-16 Thirty years after Puck, Buck came along and followed right in his footsteps: high school star center fielder turned top-three draft pick turned immediate pro success. Buxton quickly emerged as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and reached the majors by age 21. As we know, it's been anything but a storybook journey for him since then. The tools and talents that earned Buxton such prospect praise have been fully on display in between endless and excruciating bouts with injury. He enters this year surrounded by an especially high degree of uncertainty as he looks to move past a recurring knee issue some fear to be chronic. While much of his tale thankfully remains to be written, Buxton's turbulent journey to this point perfectly summarizes the theme of this list: everything he can control has gone right, and everything he can't, has not. Fernando Romero: 2017 Once Buxton had officially graduated to major-league status, a void opened in his entrenched perch atop Twins top prospect rankings. Different outlets went different directions, breaking with the firm consensus that ruled Buxton's reign, but TD's panelists chose Fernando Romero. The big right-hander had seemingly overcome his own gauntlet of injuries to re-emerge as a fireballing ace prototype with velocity, spin, command, and mound presence. Of course, this optimistic forecast never came close to materializing, and in his case, we can't chalk it up as much more than an age-old example of the encouraging young arm plateauing and fizzling out at the highest level. Romero struggled over 26 appearances with the Twins between 2018-19, and hasn't been back to the majors since. He spent the past two seasons playing in Japan, with mediocre numbers. Royce Lewis: 2018-20 When you get selected at the very top of the draft and immediately start performing in the minors, it's a natural path to the No. 1 prospect spot, which is why Buxton held it down for four straight years, and why Lewis opened up his own three-year reign shortly thereafter. Then, Lewis began his own battle with uncontrollable adversity. The shortstop was creeping toward MLB-readiness in 2020 when the COVID pandemic wiped out an entire minor-league season. During the following winter, he tore his ACL slipping on ice, requiring surgery that erased his 2021 season. Shortly after returning to the field following a lengthy rehab, he re-tore the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. He's again on the rehab track and aiming to return midseason, at which point he'll have played 46 official games in the past three-and-a-half years. Alex Kirilloff: 2021 No minor-league baseball was played during the 2020 season, so there wasn't much movement among returning players on our list the following year. We did, however, elevate Kirilloff to No. 1 on the basis of a loud showing at the team's St. Paul training site that culminated with an MLB debut in the playoffs. He'd already gone through his own cruel rite of passage as a Twins top prospect, losing a season of development in the minors to Tommy John surgery, but Kirilllof had seemingly come out on the other side. He got the official call-up in 2021 and looked like he was in the majors to stay before a wrist injury surfaced and sent his ascendant career spinning off the rails. Almost two years later, he's still trying to get it back on track, following a second surgery on the same wrist. Early signs are good, but Derek Falvey painted a stark picture of finality regarding the success (or non-success) of this last-ditch effort a salvage a career threatening to grind to a halt almost before it starts. "He’s never coming in at the end of the day, walking into that room and going, ‘Hey, I’ve got some soreness,’ " Falvey told reporters. “At this point, that’s all we can do because as you all know, this is the procedure. There’s not another one. This needs to work." Austin Martin: 2022 The headliner of 2021's José Berríos trade, Martin went straight to Double-A after being drafted and led the league in on-base percentage while showing stellar speed, contact skills, and strike zone control. With Kirilloff graduating and Lewis coming off two straight missed seasons, Martin overtook the top spot on our list. He followed up with an underwhelming encore at the same level, tarnishing his prospect luster, but the 23-year-old should not be discounted as a factor going forward. The same standout traits mentioned above were still intact even as his modest power evaporated, and talent is talent. Like Romero, Martin's drop-off is seemingly a more standard story of stalling player development than catastrophic bad fortune, but unlike Romero, he still has plenty of time to reverse course and show this was nothing more than a bump in the road. At the very least, Martin seems destined to pan out as a useful big-leaguer player, if not a star, and that's a (generally common) middle-of-the-road outcome that's been rare in these ranks. Brooks Lee: 2023 Alas, we arrive at The New Guy. Lee joined the organization as the No. 8 overall pick last summer, and he followed the tried-and-true path of Buxton, Lewis, and Martin before him: from top draft pick to immediate producer to No. 1 Twins prospect. As we've seen, the paths can diverge greatly from this initial juncture. By no means am I drawing out this pattern to place a hex on Lee (though one could argue, based on ample evidence, that he was cosmically hexed from the moment he was drafted by the Twins in the first round). I do think it sheds important context on the punishing nature of this profession, the lack of assurances for any player, and the importance of enjoying things in the moment. Things like Lee experiencing first major-league camp, or Lewis sprinting and smiling on the sidelines as he cheerily battles to overcome another setback. Each time Kirilloff swings and cracks a line drive with no ensuing wince, or Buxton springs up after a spectacular diving catch, it's something to appreciate because we've all seen how quickly and randomly it can all go away. People who obsess over following prospects, like myself, are apt to get overly caught up in projecting the future, and fixating on ceilings, and taking for granted that greatness will find a way. Sometimes, it doesn't. And even when it does, the moment can be fleeting. In fact, most often it is. No one knows what tomorrow will hold. And in large part, that's out of our hands. I think this is an important mindset for Twins fans to carry into a season that will inevitably be fraught with looming health concerns and triggering setbacks. My recommendation (and one I'll aspire to live by): Don't give into doomsday-ism, just enjoy the moment. Past does not dictate present or future. The Twins as a team will be setting out prove that following back-to-back disappointing seasons, and many of their former chart-topping prospects will be looking to support that cause by doing the same. View full article

A number of Twins’ hitters are likely to benefit from the rule change, but the hitter most impacted by the new shift ban might not be who you think it is. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so. The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton. Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%. Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift. While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own. View full article

FORT MYERS - Max Kepler talks about the shift ban, Byron Buxton is ready to lead a team with Carlos Correa, and Michael A. Taylor is looking for the green light. Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports We're trying something new for Twins Daily's Caretakers: an audio report from John Bonnes on what he's seeing and hearing from players, coaches, and management inside Hammond Stadium. Today's report includes: Max Kepler discusses "the most challenging thing I physically had to play with in my career" Byron Buxton's bromance with Carlos Correa. Michael A Taylor wants to go back to stealing some bases (and Rocco is all for it.) If you're a Caretaker, click here for your exclusive content! And if you're not, maybe consider becoming a Caaretaker? You likely visit regularly, and that's going to become even more likely as the season gears up. Supporting something you value feels good, especially when it's been here feeding your baseball habit for over 10 years for free, right? We're in spring training reporting because we love this stuff, and we want to share it as much as we can, so you can find lot of free content from Fort Myers other places on the site. But unfortunately, spring training is expensive, and that's especially true this year after Hurricane Ian damaged a lot of the lodging options. Plus, there are lot of other benefits, like a free Winter Meltdown ticket and early access for guest, special callouts on the site, and lots more inside or in-depth content like this. So please consider joining our little club. The money is going to a site you love, to support coverage you love, and writers you value. Thank you so much. Join Here to support Twins Daily and get your exclusive content! View full article

Over the years, Minnesota Twins fans have seen Byron Buxton go from a player that the organization wanted to beat out ground balls to among the best talents in the game. The only problem is that his availability has been limited along the way. What if this is where that ends? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Let’s first start by relieving pressure from new trainer Nick Paparesta. I don’t think anyone in the Twins organization views him as a savior of sorts, but there is no denying that his addition comes on the heels of a 2022 that saw a ridiculous amount of injury. Introducing new training techniques, the hope for Minnesota would be that players remain on the field more. No one is more important in that endeavor than Byron Buxton. On April 7, the Twins seventh game of the season in 2022, Buxton led off the game with a double against the Boston Red Sox. When sliding into second base, he jammed his knee, pounded his fist, and it looked as though his season may be over. Surprisingly, he missed just six games and returned on April 21 against the Kansas City Royals. Two days later, against the Chicago White Sox, he was 4-for-4 with a homer and looked like a superhero. The problem was that he never felt the same. Routinely, Buxton found himself on the trainer’s table. He was getting fluid drained from his knee frequently. There was fear of infection. There were countless hours of rehab. In short, the superstar from Baxley, Georgia, was doing his best impression to look like the Superman from Smallville, Kansas. From the point he injured the knee against the Red Sox through his ultimate shutdown in August, Buxton played 85 games for the Twins. A good portion of those came as a designated hitter, attempting to keep his bat in the lineup while removing some pressure from his legs. Unfortunately, that also substantially saps the value such a great defender brings to the field, and Buxton had to feel less than ideal by providing only half of his value. Getting into a total of 92 games last season, something Buxton noted as the most he’s played in since 2017, the Twins saw him produce 4.0 fWAR. On a per game basis, he has been right there with the likes of Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, or Paul Goldschmidt. The question for years has not been whether the talent was real, but how often it could matter. Turning the page to 2023, Minnesota is hoping the fluke injuries end. There is no way to predict a knee going into the ground harshly on a slide. A hit by pitch shouldn’t always break a hand, and a dive forward into grass shouldn’t always result in a concussion. There was a time that Buxton’s style of play put him in harm's way, but even there Minnesota has worked to keep their talent healthy. Looking at projections for the upcoming season, Fangraphs’ Steamer has Buxton launching 32 homers across 130 games. Last season, he put up 28 in just 92 games. ZiPS projections have the Twins centerfielder at 22 home runs, but that system has him registering just 90 games. The total could conceivably be somewhere in the middle, but if Buxton plays anywhere close to 130 games, he may double the 3.6 fWAR seen for him in that time by Steamer. As a whole, baseball does a poor job marketing its stars. Trout is hidden in Los Angeles as is his teammate Shohei Ohtani. The East Coast teams often get their due, and Mookie Betts has recently been the darling of the Dodgers. Although Minnesota will never be on that level, for Buxton to be in any national conversations, he must remain on the field. Fans wanting to see what that looks like over a near-162 games could be treated to something special. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put a strong foot forward for Rocco Baldelli with this club. Carlos Correa is here to stay. Byron Buxton being healthy and amazing is something everyone is waiting to present itself. View full article

What did our mighty machine overlord spit out about the 2023 seasons of several Minnesota Twins hitters? Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus—one of baseball's leading analysis site—released their PECOTA projections for every player in MLB. PECOTA predicts nearly everything; minor stats like caught stealing, hit by pitch, and triples emanate from its crystal ball along with more crucial numbers like slugging and BABIP. For this article, we will focus on DRC+ and WARP. Below are Minnesota’s likely opening day position players (plus Royce Lewis) along with their position, DRC+, WARP, and player comp. You can read more about DRC+ here, but to oversimplify, it’s a play off Fangraphs’ wRC+ that also considers inputs like pitcher quality and play outcome relative to the stadium; a hit off Jacob deGrom is worth more than a hit off a position player, after all. 100 is league average, with each point in either direction standing as a percent in relation to the average. If that doesn’t make sense: Byron Buxton’s 119 projection means he will be 19% better than the average hitter. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR; 2.0 is considered an average player. Note: These are the 50% projections, meaning each player has a coin flip’s chance of beating or falling behind their projection. Alright! We have some zesty numbers above. I’m struck by Jorge Polanco standing as an equal with Carlos Correa (they were ranked 44 and 45, respectively) as they share an identical DRC+ projection. Cody Christie wrote that Polanco is Minnesota’s most underrated player, and he may be correct. Correa’s projection appears surprisingly tepid, given that he’s bested a 117 DRC+ in his last two seasons. The next surprise is Joey Gallo. Despite Gallo owning one of the most extreme profiles in baseball, PECOTA sees his 2022 as something of a fluke, and the machine hands him a generous 107 DRC+ projection. I think the Twins would be glad to receive that kind of production from Gallo. His comp is spot-on. Now, on to some disappointments. Nick Gordon’s 86 DRC+ appears low, but PECOTA is typically suspicious of high strikeout/high BABIP players. It’s a tricky balancing act—any drop in power kills his entire profile—but it’s not impossible for him to succeed; Gordon will need to prove himself again in 2023. Then, Trevor Larnach. I scrolled through about 1500 players before finding Larnach munching on algae at the bottom of the list, impressing no one with an 85 DRC+. He suffers from a similar ailment as Gordon: producing with a compromised strikeout-fueled skillset, but he also lacks the playing time to prove his system works. To end this article, we’ll go over a few fun projections. PECOTA loves what Yunior Severino cooked up in the minors last season, handing him a 97 DRC+ despite just a handful of games in the high minors. Jose Salas—part of Minnesota’s return for Luis Arraez—earns a 0.7 WARP projection despite a putrid offensive line; the machine must love his defense. PECOTA sees something in Jair Camargo’s profile; he earned a 0.4 WARP projection despite traveling in the same boat as Yunior Severino. And finally… 36-year-old ByungHo Park has a 99 DRC+ projection. Legends never die. Any other numbers catch your eye? Are there any projections not covered in this article you would like to know about? Leave a comment and start the discussion. Note: Baseball Prospectus tinkers with PECOTA until the start of the season; these numbers were taken on February 14th and may not match future projections. Also, if you question PECOTA's value, Rob Mains wrote about how successful the machine is and where it fails. View full article

Injuries were the biggest storyline of the 2022 season for the Twins. With spring training beginning, here are the injuries to monitor as the team prepares for the 2023 campaign. Image courtesy of Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports The Twins were one of the most injured teams throughout the 2022 season. Minnesota overcame these injuries during most of the season to be at the top of the AL Central. Unfortunately, the club ran out of gas (and players) in the second half. Will the injury bug hit the Twins again in 2023? Let’s review the team’s injuries from last season and how they will impact spring training. Pitchers Jorge Alcala: Alcala landed on the injured list five days into the 2022 season with elbow inflammation. He tried to return but suffered a setback in June. In August, the Twins announced he underwent arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. Minnesota expected him to be a vital bullpen arm in 2022, so it will be interesting to see what role he can fill in 2023. He’s expected to be ready to start the season. Sonny Gray: Gray had three stints on the injured list last season, including ending the year on the shelf. He missed time in April with a hamstring injury and a pectoral strain in June. His season ended on the IL with a hamstring strain. Minnesota was out of contention, so the team had no reason to rush him back. Gray has failed to pitch more than 150 innings in all but two seasons since 2016 due to injuries. Kenta Maeda: Maeda missed the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. There was some hope he would be able to pitch in the season’s final weeks, but the Twins fell out of contention, and there was no reason to rush him back. Maeda is entering the final year of his contract, so he has a lot to prove on the mound this season. Can teams rely on him to be a starting pitcher moving forward, or is he headed to a bullpen role? Tyler Mahle: Mahle’s Twins tenure has been overshadowed by injuries. He was limited to four appearances after being acquired by the Twins. Before the trade, Mahle missed 21 days with a right shoulder strain. He came back and made two starts before being moved to the Twins. Minnesota reported that there was no structural damage to the shoulder, and the Twins worked with him on an off-season shoulder regimen. He has a chance to be the team's top pitcher if he can move past his shoulder concerns. Bailey Ober: Ober was limited to 11 appearances in 2022 and didn’t make an appearance between June 1 and September 16 because of a groin strain. Throughout his professional career, he hasn’t pitched more than the 108 1/3 innings he threw in 2021. He reached that number in 2021 between the Twins and Saints. If everyone is healthy, there’s a good chance Ober will start the year in the Triple-A rotation. It would be great if Ober can set a new a career high in innings pitched in 2023, but he hasn't been a bastion of health with the Twins. Position Players Byron Buxton: Buxton had a tremendous start to his 2022 campaign on the way to his first All-Star Game appearance. His second half was much more limited while he dealt with a right hip strain and a knee issue. In September, he underwent season-ending arthroscopic knee surgery, which the team considered a cleanup procedure. He is expected to be ready as spring training begins, but injuries have impacted much of Buxton’s career. Carlos Correa: Correa has played 136 games or more over the last two seasons, so injuries haven’t been a concern in recent seasons. However, Correa’s ankle caused two contracts to fall through this winter. He is also not participating in the World Baseball Classic, but that is tied to his wife expecting their second child in March. Different injuries have marked Correa’s big-league career, but the team will likely be taking good care of his ankle during his remaining Twins tenure. Jorge Polanco: During the 2022 season, Polanco missed time with patellar tendonitis before landing on the injured list in early September. He tried to work his way back and played in minor league rehab games before suffering a setback. Polanco should be good to go at the start of spring training, but he is certainly someone to watch. Chronic ankle injuries have also impacted him in multiple seasons. Alex Kirilloff: Kirilloff missed time the last two seasons with wrist issues. Last season, he dealt with considerable pain while swinging, and the team needed to find a long-term solution. In August, he underwent a season-ending ulnar shortening procedure that is relatively rare for professional athletes. There are a lot of unknowns with this procedure and how well a big-league hitter can recover, although Kirk Gibson is one positive example to give you hope. First base is one of the most critical spots in the team’s line-up, and the club needs Kirilloff to produce at a high level. Trevor Larnach: In late June, Larnach underwent a bilateral surgical repair to treat a core muscle strain. At the time, the team thought that he’d miss six weeks, but he never returned in 2022. During the 2021 season, his performance suffered before the Twins demoted him to Triple-A. He later revealed that a hand injury had been bothering him. When healthy, he’s shown tremendous power potential but hasn’t been able to stay on the field. Are you worried about any of these injuries? Will the Twins be healthier in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Some matches are made in heaven. Others are made at One Twins Way. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports When Michael A. Taylor signed with the Twins in January, the defensive outlook on the outfield entered the absurd territory. Taylor is a Gold Glove centerfielder joining an outfield that already features two Gold Glove outfielders in Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo. The three occupy the top three spots in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) since 2020 among outfielders. Max Kepler, a great fielder in his own right (22nd in DRS), is slated to get most of the time in the right field. He joins Buxton and Taylor in the top 9 in Outs Above Average since 2020 (OAA; 8th, 9th, and 6th, respectively). If defensive metrics aren't your thing—they're far from perfect—do this mental exercise. Close your eyes and think of a defensive player that you would rather have at each position. (No, you can't say "Juan Soto," despite his being a Gold Glove finalist in 2022; be honest). The list for each is probably relatively short. To be in that type of position at all three spots is special. Because of the presence of four elite defenders, the Twins will be able to consistently mix and match to put a quality outfield behind their pitchers every day. All four players mentioned above can play serviceable-to-Gold-Glove centerfield. Gallo has won a Gold Glove in both corner positions. Taylor has left and right field experience as a role player in Washington. You can then add to that group reserve outfielders Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach, who have been solid outfielders early in their careers, and Gilberto Celestino at Triple-A, who has the tools to be a good outfielder himself. All listed names except Larnach can provide centerfield defense for the team. If you need more convincing, check out Ted's case for the Minnesota outfield being the best in baseball in 2023 and Theo's discussion on the centerfield depth. I'm not here to make those cases. Instead, I want to make the case that bringing Taylor in to complete an elite outfield defense is a perfect fit for the current roster. Baseball teams, more than teams in almost all other sports, can be built by acquiring the best talent, regardless of fit, given the independence of baseball as a sport. As your uncle or drinking buddy has probably told you at least once, "There's only one ball in the NBA." Baseball doesn't fall victim to that issue. Joey Gallo, for example, was signed this offseason because the front office believed they could get value out of him; roster space be damned. However, not all player acquisitions are based on taking the greatest talent. No team can survive throwing seven left-handed first basemen out into the field, no matter how well they hit the ball. These additions can be need-based complementary, as they depend on the team's current state, altering it to be better. Carlos Correa's signing may fall under the Sign as Much Talent as Possible scheme, but it was also need-based, as it filled a gaping hole at shortstop. The Christian Vazquez signing also falls into the need-based category, as the team lacked a player they felt comfortable relying on for 95 starts at catcher in 2023. Both players are talented but more valuable on a team like the Twins, which had a pressing need at each position. Not all complementary acquisitions are based on need or upgrading at a position, though. Some are more context complementary. Take, for example, the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Big bats and speedy outfielders complement the playing environment in Denver, so finding a player who checks those boxes can be considered a complementary addition because their value to the team goes beyond their true talent. The same idea can apply to personnel already on the team, such as the popular idea early this offseason of finding a left-handed catcher to pair with Ryan Jeffers. Andrelton Simmons is not very useful if there aren't a lot of balls hit in the infield. In that vein, compiling a squad of elite defensive outfielders compliments the current pitching staff quite well. The Twins do not have a groundball pitching staff. Only two pitchers—Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez—qualify as groundball pitchers (greater than 44% groundball percentage, per FanGraphs). Among the 13 pitchers slated to make the Opening Day roster, only five had a fly ball percentage (FB%) lower than average (35%), with Pablo Lopez (33%) being the only starter below 35%. Joe Ryan (54%), Bailey Ober (51%), and Tyler Mahle (48%) each had a sky-high (no pun intended) 2022 FB% in the rotation—higher than the Twin's all-time starting pitcher leader in the statistic, Kevin Slowey (min. 150 IP). Caleb Thielbar (47%) and everybody's favorite fly-ball-giver-upper Emilio Pagan (40%) paced the bullpen in allowing shots into the outfield. The Twins ranked 14th in FB% in 2022 at 37.5%. Extrapolating last year's stats onto Steamer projections for innings thrown in 2023, the pitching staff would have a FB% of 39.3, a rate just below Michael Pineda's career rate with the Twins (39.5%). That 39.3% would rank 9th among teams in 2022. More projected innings from Ober and Mahle would explain the increase, among other minor personnel changes. Will the Twins lead the league in 2023 FB%? Probably not, but they're likely to give up more than the average staff. That fact makes the Taylor trade (and, to a lesser extent, the Gallo signing) more exciting. Elite outfield defense is only beneficial if balls are hit to them at an above-average rate. If the team gives up fly balls at the same rate as Michael Pineda, the outfield will have plenty of balls to track down. Free agent bullpen arms like Matt Wisler (57%) or Matt Moore (39.4%) may even look more appetizing. This newly-constructed outfield helps the Twins as much or more than it would help any team. Although many fans expected the complementary fourth outfielder piece to be a righty with some thump, the Twins zagged to ensure that their outfield defense would be good-to-elite, no matter which of their top 7 outfielders took the field each day. Their fly-ball-happy pitchers will love them for that. Not even raindrops stand a chance. As a bonus bit of fun, can you imagine this zany outfield alignment suggested by Mike Petriello on Twitter featuring Buxton and Taylor roaming the outfield with their elite range and former third baseman Joey Gallo in short right against an extreme-pull lefty? Too bad the Twins have two of the usual suspects playing for them right now. View full article

The AL Central is considered one of the weaker divisions in Major League Baseball, but that doesn't mean the division lacks top-end talent. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Heading into spring training, I put together an all-star team comprised of the best players at each position in the AL Central. Here's what I came up with. Catcher Winner: Christian Vazquez MIN This position was a fun one to compare. With Yasmani Grandal, Salvador Perez, and newcomers Christian Vazquez and Mike Zunino, it was tough to pick the best overall catcher out of the bunch. Vazquez got the edge over the rest because of his defensive ability. In 2022, Vazquez was among the league's best defensive players, accounting for 11 DRS. In comparison, Grandal had -5, Perez -4, and Zunino -2. At the plate, Grandal and Zunino are coming off down years, so it is hard to call either the best at the position. As for Perez… read on. First Base Winner: Josh Naylor CLE First base is arguably the worst overall position in the AL Central. The position is chock-full with youngsters like Alex Kirilloff, Spencer Torkelson, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Andrew Vaughn, who could be excellent baseball players in the future. However, after a 20-home run season in which he produced 1.8 WAR, the 25-year-old Naylor gets the edge over the rest of the field in 2023. Second Base Winner: Andres Gimenez CLE What a year it was for Andres Gimenez. 7.6 WAR and sixth in the MVP voting. Gimenez made significant strides in his game last year and cemented himself as one of the best second basemen in MLB. Jorge Polanco is the only other noteworthy second baseman in the division. While he is probably a top 10-second baseman in the MLB, he is still notably behind the skillset of Gimenez. Shortstop Winner: Carlos Correa MIN The new $200M man put together another stellar season in 2022, earning himself a hefty contract extension that could span the rest of his career. MLB Network ranked Correa as the second-best shortstop in all the MLB, right behind the Phillies' new addition Trea Turner. Bobby Witt Jr.'s future is bright, but for the moment, the best shortstop in the Central award belongs to Correa. Third Base Winner: Jose Ramirez CLE Third base was the biggest no-brainer of all. Jose Ramirez is among the best players in the league and has been providing top-level talent for Cleveland since 2016. There are some talented third basemen in the Central, but none were even close to Ramirez, a perennial MVP candidate. Left Field Winner: Steven Kwan CLE Steven Kwan had an excellent rookie campaign for the Guardians, producing 5.5 WAR, finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year race, and winning a Gold Glove. Kwan was a contact machine, drawing two more walks than strikeouts. Andrew Benintendi comes in second place here as the only other noteworthy left fielder. Center Field Winner: Byron Buxton MIN Buxton is one of the best baseball players on the planet when healthy. He has every tool one could hope for in a star player. The only problem is Buxton has had a hell of a time staying healthy. Since he became an everyday player in the MLB in 2016, Buxton has played more than 92 games only once. Despite the minimal playing time, Buxton still has put up better numbers than the rest of the division and was ranked the second-best center fielder by MLB Network. If Buxton was to play 130 games, he could push for an MVP award. Right Field Winner: Max Kepler MIN Right field is another relatively weak position. Kepler gets the edge here over the field. An elite-level defender, who has shown flashes with the bat, Kepler produced 2.1 WAR in what was considered a down year in 2022. Kepler is also a candidate for positive regression at the plate in 2023 with the banning of the shift. Designated Hitter Winner: Salvador Perez KC While Perez doesn't have it defensively behind the plate, he can still swing the bat with the best of them. Perez hit 48 home runs in 2021, and while injuries limited his production in 2022, he still produced 23 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 2.7 WAR. Starting Pitcher Winner: Dylan Cease CHW One could argue for Shane Bieber, but Cease was undoubtedly better in 2022. Cease was unstoppable, producing 6.4 WAR, second in the Cy Young voting, and 22nd in the AL MVP race. Just entering his prime, Cease should only get better in the coming years and terrorize the division for years. Relief Pitcher Winner: Emmanuel Clase CLE Emmanuel Clase is nightmare fuel for opposing hitters. Clase wrapped up 2022 to the tune of 42 saves, a 1.36 ERA, and 2.8 WAR. He was voted MLB Networks' best relief pitcher, so it was hard not to choose him as the best relief pitcher in the AL Central. However, I should also mention another relief pitcher who produced 2.8 WAR in 2022 and has similarly nasty stuff. Jhoan Duran put together quite the rookie year for the Twins and should continue to thrive in his role in the back end of the bullpen. Totals CLE: 5 MIN: 4 CHW: 1 KC: 1 DET: 0 Debate on! Where do you agree? Where do you disagree? Let me know in the comments! View full article