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  1. With high-end, free agent options dwindling and the Twins nowhere near their 2022 payroll, it’s unclear what kinds of additions may be on the horizon, but the offseason is far from over. Let’s check in on what we’ve heard of late. Image courtesy of Twins Daily Free agency options for the Minnesota Twins have dwindled over the past three weeks as every high-profile position player and starting pitcher has left the free agent board, often at shockingly high prices. However, even though all of the high-profile arms are gone, decent options remain in free agency this offseason. We're going to run through some of the remaining names. Nathan Eovaldi Hands down the best-remaining starting pitcher on the free agent market, Eovaldi has built a surprisingly low amount of steam on the rumor mill. Despite a five-man rotation already being penciled in, the Minnesota Twins still appear to be a potential suitor. Eovaldi's medicals may scare some teams away from the long-time Red Sox starter, who will play his age-33 season in 2023. Despite a down season, Eovaldi would make an excellent addition to the rotation as a potential #2 starter if he can stay on the field. Health, of course, is a big question for the Twins, who were burned tremendously by pitching injuries in 2022. Also, the Qualifying Offer attached to Eovaldi means it would cost the Twins a draft pick if they sign him. Is it a gamble they’ll see as worthwhile on a pitcher who would likely become a top 5 contract given out in Twins free agent history? Regarding the remaining pool of free-agent starting pitchers, there hasn’t been much smoke in the Twins. Likely, they aren't as interested in signing depth pieces for the rotation as they have been in recent years, given the current 1-5 and the depth of arms in the high minor leagues. Brandon Drury Also noted by local reporter Darren Wolfson is an increase in interest among free agent Brandon Drury, who had a career season in 2022. Drury’s market was slow for the past month but may be building in recent days. A third baseman primarily, Drury has played a bit of corner outfield, and the Twins would undoubtedly benefit from another right-handed bat with some thump. Drury’s 123 wRC+ would have ranked 5th in 2022 behind Luis Arraez, and his 28 homers would have tied Byron Buxton for the lead. He may not slot in at a particular position every day, but his bat would be a welcome addition. AJ Pollock After the more prominent names signed with other teams, Pollock has recently been linked to the Twins. With an already full outfield that will likely lead to a trade, the Twins appear to be searching for another right-handed bat capable of holding down an outfield spot. For a good reason, Pollock has not been mentioned much so far this winter. At 34, he had what can only be described as a lost season as he posted his first below-league-average batting line since 2016 and battled injuries throughout. It’s not exciting, but it’s one of the few options the Twins have left to add a right-handed outfielder. Even last season, Pollock was 61% above league average against left-handed pitching. With Gallo, Gordon, Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler (at this point), etc., the Twins could set themselves up with platoons in both corner spots to try to make up for the offense lost in the departure of Carlos Correa. Craig Kimbrel & Zach Britton Finally, on the free agent reliever side, the market has been quiet since big names such as Kenley Jansen and David Robertson have signed. Many potentially impactful options remain, though many come with their fair share of question marks. Could the Twins meaningfully dip their toes in the free agent relief market despite their history of reluctance to do so? They certainly have the payroll space. Household names such as Kimbrel could make sense, as although he had a down year by his standards in 2022, the Twins could take a gamble with multiple arms, such as Jorge Alcala, being question marks. Adding Kimbrel in a position where he doesn’t have to close or even set up on day one could offer the Twins some insurance if one of their high-leverage arms misses time or struggles. The same goes for lefty Zach Britton who’s coming off an injury but has long been a reliable back-end reliever. There hasn’t been much development in the market either. They could also turn their eyes to Matt Moore, who had a resurgent season in Texas, posting a sub-2.00 ERA in 74 innings. It’s likely with this tier of reliever that, we won’t hear much momentum on deals until they’re just about wrapped up. The Minnesota Twins trade market is likely to get rolling soon, though, for a team that rarely leaks information, we’re left with little more speculation on what it could entail. Still, with about $24m to spend to get to the 2022 level of payroll, we will likely see this gap closed across the next few weeks through free agency. Even though it won’t be spent on Carlos Correa or a similar level player, it should be fascinating to see what the rest of the winter has in store for Twins fans. View full article
  2. Free agency options for the Minnesota Twins have dwindled over the past three weeks as every high-profile position player and starting pitcher has left the free agent board, often at shockingly high prices. However, even though all of the high-profile arms are gone, decent options remain in free agency this offseason. We're going to run through some of the remaining names. Nathan Eovaldi Hands down the best-remaining starting pitcher on the free agent market, Eovaldi has built a surprisingly low amount of steam on the rumor mill. Despite a five-man rotation already being penciled in, the Minnesota Twins still appear to be a potential suitor. Eovaldi's medicals may scare some teams away from the long-time Red Sox starter, who will play his age-33 season in 2023. Despite a down season, Eovaldi would make an excellent addition to the rotation as a potential #2 starter if he can stay on the field. Health, of course, is a big question for the Twins, who were burned tremendously by pitching injuries in 2022. Also, the Qualifying Offer attached to Eovaldi means it would cost the Twins a draft pick if they sign him. Is it a gamble they’ll see as worthwhile on a pitcher who would likely become a top 5 contract given out in Twins free agent history? Regarding the remaining pool of free-agent starting pitchers, there hasn’t been much smoke in the Twins. Likely, they aren't as interested in signing depth pieces for the rotation as they have been in recent years, given the current 1-5 and the depth of arms in the high minor leagues. Brandon Drury Also noted by local reporter Darren Wolfson is an increase in interest among free agent Brandon Drury, who had a career season in 2022. Drury’s market was slow for the past month but may be building in recent days. A third baseman primarily, Drury has played a bit of corner outfield, and the Twins would undoubtedly benefit from another right-handed bat with some thump. Drury’s 123 wRC+ would have ranked 5th in 2022 behind Luis Arraez, and his 28 homers would have tied Byron Buxton for the lead. He may not slot in at a particular position every day, but his bat would be a welcome addition. AJ Pollock After the more prominent names signed with other teams, Pollock has recently been linked to the Twins. With an already full outfield that will likely lead to a trade, the Twins appear to be searching for another right-handed bat capable of holding down an outfield spot. For a good reason, Pollock has not been mentioned much so far this winter. At 34, he had what can only be described as a lost season as he posted his first below-league-average batting line since 2016 and battled injuries throughout. It’s not exciting, but it’s one of the few options the Twins have left to add a right-handed outfielder. Even last season, Pollock was 61% above league average against left-handed pitching. With Gallo, Gordon, Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler (at this point), etc., the Twins could set themselves up with platoons in both corner spots to try to make up for the offense lost in the departure of Carlos Correa. Craig Kimbrel & Zach Britton Finally, on the free agent reliever side, the market has been quiet since big names such as Kenley Jansen and David Robertson have signed. Many potentially impactful options remain, though many come with their fair share of question marks. Could the Twins meaningfully dip their toes in the free agent relief market despite their history of reluctance to do so? They certainly have the payroll space. Household names such as Kimbrel could make sense, as although he had a down year by his standards in 2022, the Twins could take a gamble with multiple arms, such as Jorge Alcala, being question marks. Adding Kimbrel in a position where he doesn’t have to close or even set up on day one could offer the Twins some insurance if one of their high-leverage arms misses time or struggles. The same goes for lefty Zach Britton who’s coming off an injury but has long been a reliable back-end reliever. There hasn’t been much development in the market either. They could also turn their eyes to Matt Moore, who had a resurgent season in Texas, posting a sub-2.00 ERA in 74 innings. It’s likely with this tier of reliever that, we won’t hear much momentum on deals until they’re just about wrapped up. The Minnesota Twins trade market is likely to get rolling soon, though, for a team that rarely leaks information, we’re left with little more speculation on what it could entail. Still, with about $24m to spend to get to the 2022 level of payroll, we will likely see this gap closed across the next few weeks through free agency. Even though it won’t be spent on Carlos Correa or a similar level player, it should be fascinating to see what the rest of the winter has in store for Twins fans.
  3. We are officially into trade deadline season and the Minnesota Twins are leading the American League Central Division. It’s probably not a certainty that the club would need to add a bat, but if they want to get creative there’s roster spots to improve upon. Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. It’s on the mound that most of the focus should be pointed, but there’s little reason to turn away from a competent hitter if a fit is deemed strong and valuable. The 5 Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets Rocco Baldelli’s club is less pressed in the lineup, even though they’ve gone silent at times. Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff have solidified first base for the most part, and Jorge Polanco has returned healthy at second base. Minnesota has flexibility at third, and Luis Arraez has been great about filling in wherever. The outfield is also largely set and knowing Trevor Larnach will be back helps. If the Twins were to acquire a bat, it probably comes as a utility type or behind the plate. Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire: Brandon Drury - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 16 HR 124 OPS+ The Reds have plenty to piece out, and while they aren’t as bad as they started, this isn’t an organization that wants to win either. Drury is a stereotypical utility man that can play all over the diamond. He’s played every infield position aside from appearing behind the plate this season, and he was previously an outfielder at times for both the Mets and Blue Jays. This is easily a career year for the veteran, and the Reds will look to extract value out of a guy making just $900k. He did put up a solid 2021 season as well, but both of these sample sizes are relatively small. Drury is posting a career best 11% barrel rate, but his expected stats are below actual production. He’s seen success by lowering whiff and chase rates which is a solid procedural change. A free agent following the season, there shouldn’t be much in the way of acquisition cost here. Christian Walker - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 21 HR 123 OPS+ You could call Walker a slugger at first base but that would be selling his impact short. Yes, he blasts the ball into the seats and isn’t a high average guy by any means, but he’s also a very good defender. With 12 defensive runs saved and eight outs above average, he brings plenty of value to the lineup. Walker’s expected batting average is also nearly 70 points higher than it currently rests, and his expected slugging percentage checks in at a whopping .598. He’s barrelling baseballs at a ridiculous 15% of the time, and his .183 BABIP suggests even more offense could be had here. Walker is playing on a $2.6 million deal this season and remains under team control for each of the next two seasons. Minnesota making a move at first base would largely be reflective of how they want to use Miranda, Kirilloff, and Gio Urshela. Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs - 27 yrs old 2.3 fWAR 8 HR 136 OPS+ A former 9th overall pick, Happ’s value isn’t solely rooted in the longball. He’s at home in the outfield and would be able to play a strong centerfield, but he can also play on the dirt. Happ has previously earned MVP votes and he’s posted better than a league-average OPS+ each of his six pro seasons. Happ’s barrel rate is down some, but his expected slugging percentage suggests there’s a bit of room to grow. He’s never previously experienced this muted level of home run production, and coming off of 25 last year, a second half surge may happen for an acquiring club. Happ is making $6.85 million this year and is arbitration eligible again in 2023 before becoming a free agent. Josh Bell - Washington Nationals - 29 yrs old 2.5 fWAR 12 HR 164 OPS+ On a one-year deal with the Nationals, it always seemed like Bell may wind up as trade fodder at the deadline. He hasn’t produced the same home run numbers we’ve seen from him before, but this is a career year by every other measure. Bell’s hard hit rate dropping below 30% for the first time in his career is likely part of the lost power, but his 8.8% whiff rate is lower than anything he’s shown since 2016 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Traditionally somewhat of a lackluster defensive option, he’s produced positive numbers by both DRS and OAA this season. Bell should be one of the most coveted bats on the market this year, and at $10 million, for the season, his remaining money won’t be substantial. Willson Contreras - Chicago Cubs - 30 yrs old 22.9 fWAR 13 HR 152 OPS+ The Cubs have some very intriguing options all over the diamond, but there’s no denying the best talent is their catcher, Contreras. Offensively he’s pulverizing the baseball and experiencing a career year. The expected stats suggest this is substantiated, and if anything, may trend even further upwards. The 44.8% hard hit rate is a career high, and not at all a surprise with how well he’s seeing the ball at the plate. A knock is probably the defense, which has not previously been the case. After 8 DRS last season, Contreras is at -6 thus far in 2022. He’s not a good framer either, but is throwing out a league average amount of would be base stealers. Minnesota may benefit from a catching upgrade, but it’d be quite a luxury for them to go get the best bat available at the position. Cabrera is making $9.625 million this season in his final year of arbitration, and he’ll be a free agent following the season. If Minnesota targets a bat, who would you like them to grab and why? View full article
  4. Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. It’s on the mound that most of the focus should be pointed, but there’s little reason to turn away from a competent hitter if a fit is deemed strong and valuable. The 5 Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets Rocco Baldelli’s club is less pressed in the lineup, even though they’ve gone silent at times. Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff have solidified first base for the most part, and Jorge Polanco has returned healthy at second base. Minnesota has flexibility at third, and Luis Arraez has been great about filling in wherever. The outfield is also largely set and knowing Trevor Larnach will be back helps. If the Twins were to acquire a bat, it probably comes as a utility type or behind the plate. Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire: Brandon Drury - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 16 HR 124 OPS+ The Reds have plenty to piece out, and while they aren’t as bad as they started, this isn’t an organization that wants to win either. Drury is a stereotypical utility man that can play all over the diamond. He’s played every infield position aside from appearing behind the plate this season, and he was previously an outfielder at times for both the Mets and Blue Jays. This is easily a career year for the veteran, and the Reds will look to extract value out of a guy making just $900k. He did put up a solid 2021 season as well, but both of these sample sizes are relatively small. Drury is posting a career best 11% barrel rate, but his expected stats are below actual production. He’s seen success by lowering whiff and chase rates which is a solid procedural change. A free agent following the season, there shouldn’t be much in the way of acquisition cost here. Christian Walker - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 21 HR 123 OPS+ You could call Walker a slugger at first base but that would be selling his impact short. Yes, he blasts the ball into the seats and isn’t a high average guy by any means, but he’s also a very good defender. With 12 defensive runs saved and eight outs above average, he brings plenty of value to the lineup. Walker’s expected batting average is also nearly 70 points higher than it currently rests, and his expected slugging percentage checks in at a whopping .598. He’s barrelling baseballs at a ridiculous 15% of the time, and his .183 BABIP suggests even more offense could be had here. Walker is playing on a $2.6 million deal this season and remains under team control for each of the next two seasons. Minnesota making a move at first base would largely be reflective of how they want to use Miranda, Kirilloff, and Gio Urshela. Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs - 27 yrs old 2.3 fWAR 8 HR 136 OPS+ A former 9th overall pick, Happ’s value isn’t solely rooted in the longball. He’s at home in the outfield and would be able to play a strong centerfield, but he can also play on the dirt. Happ has previously earned MVP votes and he’s posted better than a league-average OPS+ each of his six pro seasons. Happ’s barrel rate is down some, but his expected slugging percentage suggests there’s a bit of room to grow. He’s never previously experienced this muted level of home run production, and coming off of 25 last year, a second half surge may happen for an acquiring club. Happ is making $6.85 million this year and is arbitration eligible again in 2023 before becoming a free agent. Josh Bell - Washington Nationals - 29 yrs old 2.5 fWAR 12 HR 164 OPS+ On a one-year deal with the Nationals, it always seemed like Bell may wind up as trade fodder at the deadline. He hasn’t produced the same home run numbers we’ve seen from him before, but this is a career year by every other measure. Bell’s hard hit rate dropping below 30% for the first time in his career is likely part of the lost power, but his 8.8% whiff rate is lower than anything he’s shown since 2016 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Traditionally somewhat of a lackluster defensive option, he’s produced positive numbers by both DRS and OAA this season. Bell should be one of the most coveted bats on the market this year, and at $10 million, for the season, his remaining money won’t be substantial. Willson Contreras - Chicago Cubs - 30 yrs old 22.9 fWAR 13 HR 152 OPS+ The Cubs have some very intriguing options all over the diamond, but there’s no denying the best talent is their catcher, Contreras. Offensively he’s pulverizing the baseball and experiencing a career year. The expected stats suggest this is substantiated, and if anything, may trend even further upwards. The 44.8% hard hit rate is a career high, and not at all a surprise with how well he’s seeing the ball at the plate. A knock is probably the defense, which has not previously been the case. After 8 DRS last season, Contreras is at -6 thus far in 2022. He’s not a good framer either, but is throwing out a league average amount of would be base stealers. Minnesota may benefit from a catching upgrade, but it’d be quite a luxury for them to go get the best bat available at the position. Cabrera is making $9.625 million this season in his final year of arbitration, and he’ll be a free agent following the season. If Minnesota targets a bat, who would you like them to grab and why?
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