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Part 1: The Puckett Clause Part 2: The Koufax Argument Part 3: The Missing Cy Young The Cy Young Award is baseball’s highest pitching honor. Some pitchers are in the conversation for the award on a regular basis. For current baseball fans, names like Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are regulars on the year-end balloting. In his prime, Johan Santana was in this elite group. When the 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot was released, one of the first items I noted was Santana’s high ranking on Baseball Reference’s Cy Young Award Share scale. His 2.72 shares rank him 13th all-time. This sandwiches him between Sandy Koufax and Justin Verlander. The only players in front of him who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Roger Clemens (7.66 shares), Clayton Kershaw (4.56), Roy Halladay (3.50), and Max Scherzer (3.14). There’s a chance that all of those men eventually have a plaque in Cooperstown. Santana’s biggest resume flaw might be the Cy Young that was taken away from him. During the 2004 season, he posted a 20-6 record with a 2.61 ERA, 265 strikeouts and an 8.6 WAR on the way to his first Cy Young Award. He was nearly as good during second Cy Young season (2006) when he went 19-6 with a 2.77 ERA, 245 strikeouts and a 7.5 WAR. The season between his two Cy Youngs is the trophy that was stolen from him. Bartolo Colon was named the 2005 Cy Young Award winner. He went 21-8 that year with a 3.48 ERA, 157 strikeouts and a 4.0 WAR. Santana couldn’t match Colon’s win-loss record but he bested him in every other category. He finished that season with a 16-7 record including a 2.87 ERA, 238 strikeouts and a 7.2 WAR. Winning a third Cy Young is an elite resume item. There are ten three-time Cy Young winners and all of them are likely to eventually end up in the Hall. The list includes Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Clayton Kershaw, Steve Carlton, Pedro Martinez, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Max Scherzer and Sandy Koufax. Had the voters picked the correct winner in 2005, Santana would have joined this elite group and even furthered his Hall of Fame resume. Ryan Romano at Beyond the Box Score wrote a piece in 2015 called “Cliff Lee and Johan Santana belong in the Hall of Fame.” He examined the peak value of these two players by looking at their WAR per 200 innings pitched and seasons of 5+ WAR. Santana ranks 10th all-time ahead of players like Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Bert Blyleven. This is just another measurement that puts Santana into elite company. Is Santana likely to be a first ballot Hall of Famer? The answer is no but there are very compelling arguments as to why he should eventually be enshrined. If the voters applied the Kirby Puckett Clause, Santana’s case gains some steam. After comparing Santana to Sandy Koufax, it’s easy to see how their peaks were similar. Lastly, his missing Cy Young would have lofted him into the elite group of sure-fire Hall of Fame pitchers. He was a master on the mound. A once in a generation pitcher. A pitcher who deserves his place in Cooperstown. Case closed. -
2019 Fifth Starter: Michael Pineda Stats: 5.04 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 69.2 IP, 57 K, 13 BB, 4.85 FIP In the season’s first month, Pineda looked like he was shaking off a little rust from his time missed with Tommy John surgery. He allowed 20 earned runs in 29 innings (6.21 ERA) and opponents were hitting .316/.349/.564 (.913) against him. It was rough and plenty of fans were wondering if Pineda was going to make it in the Twins rotation. Since the calendar has turned to May, Pineda has settled in nicely. His ERA dropped over two runs to 4.20 (19 ER in 40 2/3 IP) and he’s held opponents to a .670 OPS. Also, he has pitched five innings or more in every one of those appearances. Pineda’s velocity has also increased after a trip to the injured list. It’s been a stark turnaround and he has certainly put the Twins in position to win his starts recently. 2018 Fifth Starter: Fernando Romero Stats: 4.69 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 55.2 IP, 45 K, 19 BB, 4.35 FIP Last year was certainly an interesting one for the Twins rotation. Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios, and Jake Odorizzi all pitched over 160 innings. Lance Lynn tossed over 100 innings before being traded near the deadline. This left Fernando Romero as the starting pitcher with the fifth most starts for the Twins. Romero was once considered the Twins best pitching prospect. Fresh in fans' minds will be his struggles with transitioning to the bullpen this season. He started off strong last season as he posted a 1.88 ERA with 29 strikeouts in his first five starts (28 2/3 IP). His last five starts were a little rough as he allowed 15 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings. He wasn’t a typical number five starter, but he was forced into the role last year. 2017 Fifth Starter: Bartolo Colon Stats: 5.18 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 80.0 IP, 47 K, 15 BB, 5.31 FIP Big Sexy has been quite the cult hero among baseball circle’s and he lived up to that billing with the Twins. Minnesota was on their way to an AL Wild Card Game appearance and Colon helped the club in the second half of the year after being traded from Atlanta. He hit a nice little groove for one month (August 4-September 5) where he posted a 3.30 ERA across seven starts. Things weren’t all flowers and roses as he struggled down the stretch. In his final five appearances, he allowed 19 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings with only nine strikeouts. He allowed more home runs (5) than walks (4) and opponents managed a .995 OPS against him. Minnesota lost four of his final six games with the club. 2016 Fifth Starter: Tommy Milone Stats: 5.71 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 69.1 IP, 49 K, 22 BB, 5.54 FIP Minnesota acquired Tommy Milone back in 2014 at the trade deadline from Oakland for Sam Fuld. It was a unique deal in the fact that Minnesota had claimed Fuld off waivers from Oakland earlier that season. Milone held his own in the Twins rotation in 2015 (3.92 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP), but some struggles would follow him in 2016. Milone was limited to seven games before the calendar turned to July. In those starts, he only pitched into the sixth inning on one occasion and in the rest of the starts he failed to get out of the fifth. Opponents were crushing the ball against him with a .908 OPS thanks in large part to six home runs allowed. He fared better in July as his ERA dropped to 3.99 and batters hit .280/.312/.449 (.761). Milone would finish the season and his Twins tenure pitching out of the bullpen. Fifth starters can be a volatile group as teams, like the Twins, can run out pitchers with quite a wide variety of skills. Journeyman pitchers, young prospects, or players returning from injury can all fill the role of fifth starter. Pineda won’t be starting any playoff games for the Twins this year. He is a fifth starter on a very good Twins team and he certainly stacks up well when compared with other recent fifth starters for the Twins. What have you thought about Pineda’s performance so far? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. -
Stated multiple times during his brief tenure with the Minnesota Twins a season ago, Colon noted that he had told his late mother he would pitch until age 45. Despite that seeming somewhat unlikely at points throughout this offseason, the now-Texas Ranges hurler has posted 56 1/3 IP and has reached his 45th birthday. Of course Colon isn’t the pitcher he was when he debuted at the age of 24 in 1997. He doesn’t have the scintillating fastball, and he’s put on a few pounds since then. Even looking back to the middle of his career, a run with the Angels in which he was hucking 93 mph cheddar, Colon’s days of overpowering hitters are long gone. What’s most impressive about the rotund thrower of baseballs is just how good he continues to be at reinventing himself. This season with the Rangers, Colon’s fastball has averaged 90 mph. Despite throwing at a lower velocity, he’s slightly boosted his swinging strike and chase rates. Colon has generally been good at avoiding both hard contact and the longball, both of which have plagued him some this season. He’s throwing his sinker more often than at any point in his career, and his fastball is at a career low usage rate. What’s maybe most important is that Colon isn’t hurting himself. With over one-third of the season in the books, Colon owns the league’s best BB/9 rate at 0.8 and also the best K/BB rate at 7.20. It’s a formula that works, and one that another recently jettisoned Twin hung his hat on as well. If Bartolo Colon is a portrait of longevity, Phil Hughes may end up going down as somewhat the opposite. Nearing his 32nd birthday, the former Twins starter could be looking at the beginning of the end. Thanks to a shoulder injury that forced him to undergo thoracic outlet surgery, a procedure with poor recovery rates across the sport, Hughes never was the same pitcher that Terry Ryan rewarded with an extension back in 2014. It is in 2014 and 2018 though, that Hughes and Colon find themselves intertwined. During his first season with Minnesota, Hughes burst onto the scene as a legitimate Cy Young contender. He would end up finishing seventh in the voting, his first time ever receiving a tally. With a 3.52 ERA and a 16-10 win/loss record for Ron Gardenhire’s squad, the 28-year-old looked incredible. The secondary numbers, as with Colon in 2018, are what set Hughes apart. He completed the year walking just 0.7 batters per nine innings, and his 11.63 K/BB ratio is currently an all-time major league record. Although Hughes didn’t use a blistering fastball (albeit with a bit more bite than that of Colon’s current offering), he too worked on the premise that he was best suited for success by limiting self-inflicted damage. Should you have decided to stick with me this long, I’d like to be fair and offer up that there may be no bigger point to this piece. Both Colon and Hughes’ exploits in these highlighted situations are minor data points in a sea of much larger careers. What I think we see here however, is what a great storyteller the game of baseball can be. Although neither Colon nor Hughes may ever be remembered among the most elite arms in the game, they’ve each given us as baseball fans plenty to be in awe of. For one pitcher, the game isn’t going to be done until he decides that there’s been enough. For the other, the operating table may have been the final blow to an otherwise promising career. No matter how the dust settles or the sun sets, Bartolo Colon and Phil Hughes have provided us with story lines like those that the sport is built upon. To Big Sexy himself, Happy Birthday. To Phil Hughes, thanks for that magical summer. -
The year was 1973 and the Dominican Public had already become a breeding ground for baseball players. With the country producing multiple success stories, yet another chapter being written was hardly a far-fetched idea. Fast forward to May 24, 2018 however, and baseball fans have been blessed with 45 years of Bartolo Colon.Stated multiple times during his brief tenure with the Minnesota Twins a season ago, Colon noted that he had told his late mother he would pitch until age 45. Despite that seeming somewhat unlikely at points throughout this offseason, the now-Texas Ranges hurler has posted 56 1/3 IP and has reached his 45th birthday. Of course Colon isn’t the pitcher he was when he debuted at the age of 24 in 1997. He doesn’t have the scintillating fastball, and he’s put on a few pounds since then. Even looking back to the middle of his career, a run with the Angels in which he was hucking 93 mph cheddar, Colon’s days of overpowering hitters are long gone. What’s most impressive about the rotund thrower of baseballs is just how good he continues to be at reinventing himself. This season with the Rangers, Colon’s fastball has averaged 90 mph. Despite throwing at a lower velocity, he’s slightly boosted his swinging strike and chase rates. Colon has generally been good at avoiding both hard contact and the longball, both of which have plagued him some this season. He’s throwing his sinker more often than at any point in his career, and his fastball is at a career low usage rate. What’s maybe most important is that Colon isn’t hurting himself. With over one-third of the season in the books, Colon owns the league’s best BB/9 rate at 0.8 and also the best K/BB rate at 7.20. It’s a formula that works, and one that another recently jettisoned Twin hung his hat on as well. If Bartolo Colon is a portrait of longevity, Phil Hughes may end up going down as somewhat the opposite. Nearing his 32nd birthday, the former Twins starter could be looking at the beginning of the end. Thanks to a shoulder injury that forced him to undergo thoracic outlet surgery, a procedure with poor recovery rates across the sport, Hughes never was the same pitcher that Terry Ryan rewarded with an extension back in 2014. It is in 2014 and 2018 though, that Hughes and Colon find themselves intertwined. During his first season with Minnesota, Hughes burst onto the scene as a legitimate Cy Young contender. He would end up finishing seventh in the voting, his first time ever receiving a tally. With a 3.52 ERA and a 16-10 win/loss record for Ron Gardenhire’s squad, the 28-year-old looked incredible. The secondary numbers, as with Colon in 2018, are what set Hughes apart. He completed the year walking just 0.7 batters per nine innings, and his 11.63 K/BB ratio is currently an all-time major league record. Although Hughes didn’t use a blistering fastball (albeit with a bit more bite than that of Colon’s current offering), he too worked on the premise that he was best suited for success by limiting self-inflicted damage. Should you have decided to stick with me this long, I’d like to be fair and offer up that there may be no bigger point to this piece. Both Colon and Hughes’ exploits in these highlighted situations are minor data points in a sea of much larger careers. What I think we see here however, is what a great storyteller the game of baseball can be. Although neither Colon nor Hughes may ever be remembered among the most elite arms in the game, they’ve each given us as baseball fans plenty to be in awe of. For one pitcher, the game isn’t going to be done until he decides that there’s been enough. For the other, the operating table may have been the final blow to an otherwise promising career. No matter how the dust settles or the sun sets, Bartolo Colon and Phil Hughes have provided us with story lines like those that the sport is built upon. To Big Sexy himself, Happy Birthday. To Phil Hughes, thanks for that magical summer. Click here to view the article- 10 replies
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And so it ends. We saw the 2017 Minnesota Twins put together the greatest bounce-back season in team history, but just because this team would never say die didn’t mean it could live forever. As a way to look back on what was an unforgettable season, here is every game recap published at Twins Daily this season all in one place. I’ve also highlighted my personal top-10 moments and added some brief notes.There were obviously some great moments prior to when I started the recaps, probably the most memorable for me was Joe Mauer’s first career walkoff homer to beat the Red Sox in early May. JUNE 6 | Seattle 12, Twins 3: Santiago Still Struggling, Dozier Still Slugging 7 | Seattle 6, Twins 5: Kintzler Can’t Close it Out, Zunino Blasts Walk-Off HR 8 | Twins 2, Seattle 1: Pitching, Defense and a Castro Blast 9 | Twins 4, San Francisco 0: Superman Santana Ervin pitched a Maddux and hit a bases-clearing double. Eat your heart out, Madison Bumgarner. Maybe the Twins should’ve DHed Ervin in the Wild Card game. 10 | Twins 3, San Francisco 2: Dozier, Vargas Power Twins Behind Solid Start From Berrios11 | Giants 13, Twins 8: Bullpen Vets Lead Twins To Loss 12 | Mariners 14, Twins 3: Mejia Crushed, Gimenez Pitches Again 13 | Twins 20, Mariners 7: Twins Set Franchise Record With 28 Hits 14 | Mariners 6, Twins 4: Buxton’s Big Night 15 | Twins 6, Mariners 2: Berrios Cruises, Gimenez Bruises 16 | Cleveland 8, Twins 1: AL Central Lead Dwindles 17 | Recap: Doubleheader Sweep Puts Cleveland Atop Division 18 | Cleveland 5, Twins 2: Encarnaci-Owned 19 | OFF 20 | Twins 9, White Sox 7: Vargas Hits One To Venus 21 | Twins 4, White Sox 2: The Machine Set To Attack Mode 22 | White Sox 9, Twins 0: Another Gimenez Game 23 | Twins 5, Cleveland 0: Mejia Battles Through, Hildenberger Debuts 24 | Twins 4, Cleveland 2: Skeleton Crew Beats Kluber, Allen The Twins beat Corey Kluber on a day in which their corner outfielders were Gimenez and Grossman. There was no Sano, no Rosario and no Kepler and the team beat arguably the best pitcher in baseball. The game ended on a fabulous diving catch by Buxton. The Twins completed their sweep at Cleveland the next day. 25 | Twins 4, Cleveland 0: What a Difference a Week Makes26 | Red Sox 4, Twins 1: Sale Outduels Berrios 27 | Twins 2, Red Sox 9: Rain, Defense Put Damper On Soggy Night (by Seth Stohs) 28 | Twins 4, Red Sox 1: Mejia Shines, Kepler Powers Twins To Fenway Win (by Seth Stohs) 29 | Red Sox 6, Twins 3: Series of Unfortunate Events 30 | Royals 8, Twins 1: Another Fielding Blunder Leads to Another Ugly Inning JULY 1 | Recap: Sano Homers Twice, Jorge Impresses as Twins Split 2 | Royals 6, Twins 2: Behind Santiago, Road Trip Ends in Disappointment 3 | Twins 9, Angels 5: Mejia, Mauer, Max Lead Twins to Victory 4 | Twins 5, Angels 4: Buxton Busts Out as Gibson Glides 5 | Angels 2, Twins 1: Angels Steal a Victory, Spoil Santana’s CG 6 | Twins 6, Orioles 4: Twins Use Big Inning To Top Orioles (by Seth Stohs) 7 | Twins 9, Orioles 6: Twins Rally Back From 6-Run Deficit This game left quite an impression on me. One of the earlier showings of this team’s determination, this was the team’s biggest comeback victory of the year. Hildenberger earned his first MLB victory. Oh, and Buxton scored from first base on a ground ball hit to the shortstop. 8 | Orioles 5, Twins 1: Sano Homers, Twins Leave 11 Men On Base9 | Orioles 11, Twins 5: Granite’s Great Catch Highlights Final Game of First Half 10 | OFF 11 | OFF 12 | OFF 13 | OFF 14 | Astros 10, Twins 5: Berrios Bombs 15 | Twins 4, Astros 2: Reliable Rogers Escapes Bases-Loaded Jam 16 | Astros 5, Twins 3: Defensive Shortcomings Spoil Solid Start From Gibson 17 | Twins 4, Yankees 2: Pitching, Defense, Timely Hitting Lead to Victory 18 | Yankees 6, Twins 3: Bartolopalooza Ends in Defeat 19 | Twins 6, Yankees 1: Berrios, Sano Lift Twins to Series Victory 20 | OFF 21 | Tigers 6, Twins 3: Bad Santana 22 | Twins 6, Tigers 5: Twins Hold Off Tigers 23 | DET 9, MIN 6: Twins Drop to Third in Division, 2.5 Games Back 24 | LAD 6, MIN 4: Rogers Gives Up Bellinger Blast, Blows Lead 25 | Twins 2, Dodgers 6: Twins Fall Below .500 (by Seth Stohs) 26 | LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da 27 | OFF 28 | Twins 6, A's 3: Garcia Wins First (Last?) Twins Start (by Seth Stohs) 29 | OAK 5, MIN 4: Rogers Gives Up Walk-Off HR 30 | OAK 6, MIN 5: Deja Vu 31 | OFF AUGUST 1 | SDP 3, MIN 0: Don’t Need a Closer if You Can’t Score 2 | MIN 5, SDP 2: Don’t Need a Closer When You’ve Got Erv 3 | TEX 4, MIN 1: Twins Muster Just 3 Hits in Loss 4 | MIN 8, TEX 4: Colon Pitches a Complete Game (Yes, Really) Colon pitched a complete game at 44-years-old. I’m still not sure that’s sunk in yet for me. Unbelievable. Following the disappointment of the trade deadline things could’ve turned ugly, but this game seemed to loosen things up again. 5 | TEX 4, MIN 1: Twins Struggle to Score Without Sano, Mauer6 | MIN 6, TEX 5: Belisle Earns First Post-Kintzler Save 7 | MIN 5, MIL 4: Rosario Scores Go-Ahead Run on Balk, Polanco Collects 4 Hits 8 | MIN 11, MIL 4: Twins Slug 5 Home Runs 9 | MIN 4, MIL 0: Big Sexy With 7 Scoreless Lifts Twins Back to .500 10 | MIN 7, MIL 2: 5 Alive! 11 | MIN 9, DET 4: WE COMIN’!!! If you couldn’t tell by the headline, I was pretty excited about this one. This win put the Twins in a tie with Seattle for the second wild card spot. Buxton made a great diving catch at the warning track. Torii Hunter, who was in the booth for that game, put it best: “Oh my goodness … REALLY!?!?!?” Max also made a great grab that he and Dozier turned into a double play. 12 | DET 12, MIN 11: Twins Lose Crazy Game On Walk-Off HR13 | MIN 6, DET 4: Twins Match 2016 Win Total With 46 Games Left to Play 14 | OFF 15 | CLE 8, MIN 1: Salazar Dominates, Cleveland Hits 5 HRs 16 | POSTPONED 17 | Recap: Slegers Shines in Debut, Twins Split Doubleheader 18 | MIN 10, ARI 3: Buxton Inside-the-Parker Highlights 6 HR Game for Twins The fastest man in baseball put on a show. Buxton tripled and hit an inside-the-park homer, plus the Twins clubbed five more bombs over the fence, including two from Sano. 19 | MIN 5, ARI 0: Berri-0s20 | MIN 12, ARI 5: Twins Sweep Arizona, Have Won 11 of Last 14 21 | Recap: Polanco Homers Twice as Twins Split Doubleheader 22 | MIN 4, CWS 1: Gibson Great, Twins Hit 3 More Homers 23 | CWS 4, MIN 3: Twins Bullpen Blows Lead 24 | CWS 5, MIN 1: Twins Drop Ugly Game, Series to White Sox 25 | MIN 6, TOR 1: Buxton, Bartolo Get Twins Back to Winning Ways 26 | TOR 10, MIN 9: Sloppy 8th Inning Costs Twins in Comeback Effort 27 | MIN 7, TOR 2: Buxton Hits 3 Homers, Twins Win Series at Toronto Buxton already had a signature game displaying his speed, this was where he showcased his power. For a big chunk of the season, people were calling for Buxton to just hit the ball on the ground. This three-homer game shut most of those people up. 28 | OFF29 | MIN 6, CHW 4: Polanco Does it All 30 | MIN 11, CHW 1: Rosario Hits 2 HRs, Buxton Exits With Injury 31 | MIN 5, CHW 4: Twins Win on Walk-Off HBP SEPTEMBER 1 | KC 7, MIN 6: Oh, So Close 2 | MIN 17, KC 0: What Negative Run Differential? 3 | KC 5, MIN 4: What Even Is A Swing, Anyway? 4 | TB 11, MIN 4: Bullpen Lets Game Get Out Of Hand 5 | TB 2, MIN 1: Too Little, Too Late 6 | MIN 10, TB 6: Twins Prevail Thanks to Big Error 7 | MIN 4, KC 2: Comeback Complete 8 | MIN 8, KC 5: Rosario Drives in 4, Hildenberger Holds it Together 9 | KC 5, MIN 2: Molitor Pushes All the Wrong Buttons in Loss 10 | KC 11, MIN 3: Big Dud from Big Sexy & Co. 11 | OFF 12 | MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record This was the first time in MLB history a team hit a home run in each of the first seven innings of a game. That’s a lot of games. Seven homers. Seven! Also, Goodrum got his first-career hit and Moya made his Major League debut. Plus (yes, there’s more) both Buxton and Granite made great catches. 13 | MIN 3, SDP 1: Rosario Hits Walk-Off HR in 10th Inning14 | MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR What’s better than a walk-off homer? Walk-off homers in back-to-back games! After Rosario sent everybody home happy the night before, and Buxton stepped up in this one. What an incredible three-game stretch of awesomeness we were treated to here. 15 | TOR 4, MIN 3: Pressley Fails To Pounce, Is Victim Of A Bad Bounce16 | TOR 7, MIN 2: Pub Crawlers Have Best Night Ever Despite Twins Loss 17 | MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory 18 | NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins 19 | NYY 5, MIN 2: Tough Night For Berrios, Twins 20 | NYY 11, MIN 3: Twins Crumble At Yankee Stadium (Again) 21 | MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back 22 | MIN 7, DET 3: Gibson, Offense Keep Rolling 23 | MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen 24 | MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again 25 | OFF 26 | MIN 8, CLE 6: Twins Use Team Record 10 Pitchers In Victory They did it again, another comeback. Trailing Cleveland 6-4 in the eighth inning, Dozier clobbered a three-run oppo taco. Buxton also made another insane catch in a key situation. All this on a day in which their starter lasted just one inning due to illness. 27 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Twins Lose, Clinch Postseason Berth Anyway28 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Ervin Caps Banner Year With 5 Shutout Innings 29 | MIN 6, DET 3: Dozier, Escobar Lead Offense To Victory 30 | DET 3, MIN 2: Twins Lose In Romine Sideshow Game OCTOBER 1 | MIN 5, DET 1: Behind Castro, Colon Twins Cap Off Regular Season With Victory 2 | OFF 3 | NYY 8, MIN 4: It’s Over And that does it. You’ll have to let me know what your personal favorites were. I jumped headfirst into these recaps, but from the get-go I was as skeptical as anyone about my ability to keep up. This was a challenge of mental endurance more than anything. I had the time, it was all about staying motivated. These recaps are really fun, but nobody wants to eat their favorite meal every night for dinner. Seth Stohs chipped in on a handful of nights between June and July, but I did 101 of these things. This is significant for me because I started writing in 2004 and up until this point the only thing that was consistent about the effort in my writing was that it was inconsistent. I could never see anything through to the finish. This was tough to do night in and night out for this long and I’m damn proud to have made it to the finish line. It probably looks super tacky for me to be patting myself on the back like this, but I don’t even care. I’d like to thank some people. First and foremost, I want to thank my wife and our one-year-old daughter. They’re the best. I want to thank Seth for the opportunity and all the founders/contributors/moderators/community members who built this place up so I could just waltz in five years later and write on the best Twins destination on the Internet. The real strength of these recaps is they’re sort of a collage, so I want to make sure to thank all the places that made these possible: FOX Sports North, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, the Twins and all the beat writers. I also want to thank everybody who read these things. You folks helped point out errors, suggested new ideas and added tons of interesting insights in the comments section. Honestly, I couldn’t have kept going without you. The bottom line was always to make these recaps valuable to the reader. I sincerely hope they contributed to your enjoyment of the 2017 season. Click here to view the article- 13 replies
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Recapping The Recaps: Looking Back At The Top-10 Moments & More
Tom Froemming posted an article in Twins
There were obviously some great moments prior to when I started the recaps, probably the most memorable for me was Joe Mauer’s first career walkoff homer to beat the Red Sox in early May. JUNE 6 | Seattle 12, Twins 3: Santiago Still Struggling, Dozier Still Slugging 7 | Seattle 6, Twins 5: Kintzler Can’t Close it Out, Zunino Blasts Walk-Off HR 8 | Twins 2, Seattle 1: Pitching, Defense and a Castro Blast 9 | Twins 4, San Francisco 0: Superman Santana Ervin pitched a Maddux and hit a bases-clearing double. Eat your heart out, Madison Bumgarner. Maybe the Twins should’ve DHed Ervin in the Wild Card game. 10 | Twins 3, San Francisco 2: Dozier, Vargas Power Twins Behind Solid Start From Berrios 11 | Giants 13, Twins 8: Bullpen Vets Lead Twins To Loss 12 | Mariners 14, Twins 3: Mejia Crushed, Gimenez Pitches Again 13 | Twins 20, Mariners 7: Twins Set Franchise Record With 28 Hits 14 | Mariners 6, Twins 4: Buxton’s Big Night 15 | Twins 6, Mariners 2: Berrios Cruises, Gimenez Bruises 16 | Cleveland 8, Twins 1: AL Central Lead Dwindles 17 | Recap: Doubleheader Sweep Puts Cleveland Atop Division 18 | Cleveland 5, Twins 2: Encarnaci-Owned 19 | OFF 20 | Twins 9, White Sox 7: Vargas Hits One To Venus 21 | Twins 4, White Sox 2: The Machine Set To Attack Mode 22 | White Sox 9, Twins 0: Another Gimenez Game 23 | Twins 5, Cleveland 0: Mejia Battles Through, Hildenberger Debuts 24 | Twins 4, Cleveland 2: Skeleton Crew Beats Kluber, Allen The Twins beat Corey Kluber on a day in which their corner outfielders were Gimenez and Grossman. There was no Sano, no Rosario and no Kepler and the team beat arguably the best pitcher in baseball. The game ended on a fabulous diving catch by Buxton. The Twins completed their sweep at Cleveland the next day. 25 | Twins 4, Cleveland 0: What a Difference a Week Makes 26 | Red Sox 4, Twins 1: Sale Outduels Berrios 27 | Twins 2, Red Sox 9: Rain, Defense Put Damper On Soggy Night (by Seth Stohs) 28 | Twins 4, Red Sox 1: Mejia Shines, Kepler Powers Twins To Fenway Win (by Seth Stohs) 29 | Red Sox 6, Twins 3: Series of Unfortunate Events 30 | Royals 8, Twins 1: Another Fielding Blunder Leads to Another Ugly Inning JULY 1 | Recap: Sano Homers Twice, Jorge Impresses as Twins Split 2 | Royals 6, Twins 2: Behind Santiago, Road Trip Ends in Disappointment 3 | Twins 9, Angels 5: Mejia, Mauer, Max Lead Twins to Victory 4 | Twins 5, Angels 4: Buxton Busts Out as Gibson Glides 5 | Angels 2, Twins 1: Angels Steal a Victory, Spoil Santana’s CG 6 | Twins 6, Orioles 4: Twins Use Big Inning To Top Orioles (by Seth Stohs) 7 | Twins 9, Orioles 6: Twins Rally Back From 6-Run Deficit This game left quite an impression on me. One of the earlier showings of this team’s determination, this was the team’s biggest comeback victory of the year. Hildenberger earned his first MLB victory. Oh, and Buxton scored from first base on a ground ball hit to the shortstop. 8 | Orioles 5, Twins 1: Sano Homers, Twins Leave 11 Men On Base 9 | Orioles 11, Twins 5: Granite’s Great Catch Highlights Final Game of First Half 10 | OFF 11 | OFF 12 | OFF 13 | OFF 14 | Astros 10, Twins 5: Berrios Bombs 15 | Twins 4, Astros 2: Reliable Rogers Escapes Bases-Loaded Jam 16 | Astros 5, Twins 3: Defensive Shortcomings Spoil Solid Start From Gibson 17 | Twins 4, Yankees 2: Pitching, Defense, Timely Hitting Lead to Victory 18 | Yankees 6, Twins 3: Bartolopalooza Ends in Defeat 19 | Twins 6, Yankees 1: Berrios, Sano Lift Twins to Series Victory 20 | OFF 21 | Tigers 6, Twins 3: Bad Santana 22 | Twins 6, Tigers 5: Twins Hold Off Tigers 23 | DET 9, MIN 6: Twins Drop to Third in Division, 2.5 Games Back 24 | LAD 6, MIN 4: Rogers Gives Up Bellinger Blast, Blows Lead 25 | Twins 2, Dodgers 6: Twins Fall Below .500 (by Seth Stohs) 26 | LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da 27 | OFF 28 | Twins 6, A's 3: Garcia Wins First (Last?) Twins Start (by Seth Stohs) 29 | OAK 5, MIN 4: Rogers Gives Up Walk-Off HR 30 | OAK 6, MIN 5: Deja Vu 31 | OFF AUGUST 1 | SDP 3, MIN 0: Don’t Need a Closer if You Can’t Score 2 | MIN 5, SDP 2: Don’t Need a Closer When You’ve Got Erv 3 | TEX 4, MIN 1: Twins Muster Just 3 Hits in Loss 4 | MIN 8, TEX 4: Colon Pitches a Complete Game (Yes, Really) Colon pitched a complete game at 44-years-old. I’m still not sure that’s sunk in yet for me. Unbelievable. Following the disappointment of the trade deadline things could’ve turned ugly, but this game seemed to loosen things up again. 5 | TEX 4, MIN 1: Twins Struggle to Score Without Sano, Mauer 6 | MIN 6, TEX 5: Belisle Earns First Post-Kintzler Save 7 | MIN 5, MIL 4: Rosario Scores Go-Ahead Run on Balk, Polanco Collects 4 Hits 8 | MIN 11, MIL 4: Twins Slug 5 Home Runs 9 | MIN 4, MIL 0: Big Sexy With 7 Scoreless Lifts Twins Back to .500 10 | MIN 7, MIL 2: 5 Alive! 11 | MIN 9, DET 4: WE COMIN’!!! If you couldn’t tell by the headline, I was pretty excited about this one. This win put the Twins in a tie with Seattle for the second wild card spot. Buxton made a great diving catch at the warning track. Torii Hunter, who was in the booth for that game, put it best: “Oh my goodness … REALLY!?!?!?” Max also made a great grab that he and Dozier turned into a double play. 12 | DET 12, MIN 11: Twins Lose Crazy Game On Walk-Off HR 13 | MIN 6, DET 4: Twins Match 2016 Win Total With 46 Games Left to Play 14 | OFF 15 | CLE 8, MIN 1: Salazar Dominates, Cleveland Hits 5 HRs 16 | POSTPONED 17 | Recap: Slegers Shines in Debut, Twins Split Doubleheader 18 | MIN 10, ARI 3: Buxton Inside-the-Parker Highlights 6 HR Game for Twins The fastest man in baseball put on a show. Buxton tripled and hit an inside-the-park homer, plus the Twins clubbed five more bombs over the fence, including two from Sano. 19 | MIN 5, ARI 0: Berri-0s 20 | MIN 12, ARI 5: Twins Sweep Arizona, Have Won 11 of Last 14 21 | Recap: Polanco Homers Twice as Twins Split Doubleheader 22 | MIN 4, CWS 1: Gibson Great, Twins Hit 3 More Homers 23 | CWS 4, MIN 3: Twins Bullpen Blows Lead 24 | CWS 5, MIN 1: Twins Drop Ugly Game, Series to White Sox 25 | MIN 6, TOR 1: Buxton, Bartolo Get Twins Back to Winning Ways 26 | TOR 10, MIN 9: Sloppy 8th Inning Costs Twins in Comeback Effort 27 | MIN 7, TOR 2: Buxton Hits 3 Homers, Twins Win Series at Toronto Buxton already had a signature game displaying his speed, this was where he showcased his power. For a big chunk of the season, people were calling for Buxton to just hit the ball on the ground. This three-homer game shut most of those people up. 28 | OFF 29 | MIN 6, CHW 4: Polanco Does it All 30 | MIN 11, CHW 1: Rosario Hits 2 HRs, Buxton Exits With Injury 31 | MIN 5, CHW 4: Twins Win on Walk-Off HBP SEPTEMBER 1 | KC 7, MIN 6: Oh, So Close 2 | MIN 17, KC 0: What Negative Run Differential? 3 | KC 5, MIN 4: What Even Is A Swing, Anyway? 4 | TB 11, MIN 4: Bullpen Lets Game Get Out Of Hand 5 | TB 2, MIN 1: Too Little, Too Late 6 | MIN 10, TB 6: Twins Prevail Thanks to Big Error 7 | MIN 4, KC 2: Comeback Complete 8 | MIN 8, KC 5: Rosario Drives in 4, Hildenberger Holds it Together 9 | KC 5, MIN 2: Molitor Pushes All the Wrong Buttons in Loss 10 | KC 11, MIN 3: Big Dud from Big Sexy & Co. 11 | OFF 12 | MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record This was the first time in MLB history a team hit a home run in each of the first seven innings of a game. That’s a lot of games. Seven homers. Seven! Also, Goodrum got his first-career hit and Moya made his Major League debut. Plus (yes, there’s more) both Buxton and Granite made great catches. 13 | MIN 3, SDP 1: Rosario Hits Walk-Off HR in 10th Inning 14 | MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR What’s better than a walk-off homer? Walk-off homers in back-to-back games! After Rosario sent everybody home happy the night before, and Buxton stepped up in this one. What an incredible three-game stretch of awesomeness we were treated to here. 15 | TOR 4, MIN 3: Pressley Fails To Pounce, Is Victim Of A Bad Bounce 16 | TOR 7, MIN 2: Pub Crawlers Have Best Night Ever Despite Twins Loss 17 | MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory 18 | NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins 19 | NYY 5, MIN 2: Tough Night For Berrios, Twins 20 | NYY 11, MIN 3: Twins Crumble At Yankee Stadium (Again) 21 | MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back 22 | MIN 7, DET 3: Gibson, Offense Keep Rolling 23 | MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen 24 | MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again 25 | OFF 26 | MIN 8, CLE 6: Twins Use Team Record 10 Pitchers In Victory They did it again, another comeback. Trailing Cleveland 6-4 in the eighth inning, Dozier clobbered a three-run oppo taco. Buxton also made another insane catch in a key situation. All this on a day in which their starter lasted just one inning due to illness. 27 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Twins Lose, Clinch Postseason Berth Anyway 28 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Ervin Caps Banner Year With 5 Shutout Innings 29 | MIN 6, DET 3: Dozier, Escobar Lead Offense To Victory 30 | DET 3, MIN 2: Twins Lose In Romine Sideshow Game OCTOBER 1 | MIN 5, DET 1: Behind Castro, Colon Twins Cap Off Regular Season With Victory 2 | OFF 3 | NYY 8, MIN 4: It’s Over And that does it. You’ll have to let me know what your personal favorites were. I jumped headfirst into these recaps, but from the get-go I was as skeptical as anyone about my ability to keep up. This was a challenge of mental endurance more than anything. I had the time, it was all about staying motivated. These recaps are really fun, but nobody wants to eat their favorite meal every night for dinner. Seth Stohs chipped in on a handful of nights between June and July, but I did 101 of these things. This is significant for me because I started writing in 2004 and up until this point the only thing that was consistent about the effort in my writing was that it was inconsistent. I could never see anything through to the finish. This was tough to do night in and night out for this long and I’m damn proud to have made it to the finish line. It probably looks super tacky for me to be patting myself on the back like this, but I don’t even care. I’d like to thank some people. First and foremost, I want to thank my wife and our one-year-old daughter. They’re the best. I want to thank Seth for the opportunity and all the founders/contributors/moderators/community members who built this place up so I could just waltz in five years later and write on the best Twins destination on the Internet. The real strength of these recaps is they’re sort of a collage, so I want to make sure to thank all the places that made these possible: FOX Sports North, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, the Twins and all the beat writers. I also want to thank everybody who read these things. You folks helped point out errors, suggested new ideas and added tons of interesting insights in the comments section. Honestly, I couldn’t have kept going without you. The bottom line was always to make these recaps valuable to the reader. I sincerely hope they contributed to your enjoyment of the 2017 season. -
Jason Castro hit a go-ahead two-run single and his 10th home run of the season and Bartolo Colon held Detroit to one run over 6.1 innings to lead the Twins to victory in their final game of the regular season. This was the 85th victory of the year for the Twins. On to the Big Apple ...Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot101.png Jason Castro quietly had a very nice season for the Twins, but he was overshadowed by many of his teammates. He had the second-best season of his career at the plate, surpassing the numbers he had posted the previous three years. He also played a role in turning the pitching staff from having the worst ERA in the league in 2016 to 20th this season. Castro was the only significant addition the Twins made this offseason, which makes their turnaround from 103 losses to the postseason all the more impressive. It was the guys who were already in place who really led this team out of the basement. Guys like Brian Dozier, who was 2-for-2 with his 30th double, 78th walk and scored his 106th run. Chris Gimenez hit a pinch-hit homer, his seventh of the season and Joe Mauer had an RBI double. Joe closes out the regular season with a .305 batting average and an .810 OPS. That's the first time he's hit those marks since 2013. Byron Buxton stole his 29th base of the season. The only time he was thrown out stealing all year was when he overslid the bag. Miguel Sano was 0-for-3 with a strikeout, and did not look especially comfortable the two times he had to run to first base. Paul Molitor has until Tuesday morning to submit his roster for the Wild Card game. It seems likely Sano will be present, but the Twins skipper will have a difficult decision to make as to whether or not to start Sano or turn to him as a pinch hitter. It was nice to see Colon’s season end on a high note, especially after he struggled in September. The game ended with Gabriel Moya, who entered the game in the eighth inning with the score 4-1, picking up his first career save. He struck out two batters over 1.2 perfect innings. So that does it for the regular season. Next up: The Wild Card game in New York. I'm already stressed out just thinking about it. This is gonna be awesome. Final AL Central Standings Cleveland 102-60 Minnesota 85-77 (-17) Kansas City 80-82 (-22) Chicago 67-95 (-35) Detroit 64-98 (-38) Final AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 91-71 (+6) WC2: Minnesota 85-77 Kansas City 80-82 (-5) Angels 80-82 (-5) Tampa Bay 80-82 (-5) Postgame With Molitor Pitcher Usage Doing something different for the finale. Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the staff over the course of the entire season: Download attachment: Pitching101.png Looking Ahead Mon: OFF Tue: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Yankees (Luis Severino), 6:00 pm CT Wed: OFF Thu: Twins (TBD) at Cleveland (TBD) … book it. Looking Back DET 3, MIN 2: Twins Lose In Romine Sideshow Game MIN 6, DET 3: Dozier, Escobar Lead Offense To Victory CLE 5, MIN 2: Ervin Caps Banner Year With 5 Shutout Innings Click here to view the article
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Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Jason Castro quietly had a very nice season for the Twins, but he was overshadowed by many of his teammates. He had the second-best season of his career at the plate, surpassing the numbers he had posted the previous three years. He also played a role in turning the pitching staff from having the worst ERA in the league in 2016 to 20th this season. Castro was the only significant addition the Twins made this offseason, which makes their turnaround from 103 losses to the postseason all the more impressive. It was the guys who were already in place who really led this team out of the basement. Guys like Brian Dozier, who was 2-for-2 with his 30th double, 78th walk and scored his 106th run. Chris Gimenez hit a pinch-hit homer, his seventh of the season and Joe Mauer had an RBI double. Joe closes out the regular season with a .305 batting average and an .810 OPS. That's the first time he's hit those marks since 2013. Byron Buxton stole his 29th base of the season. The only time he was thrown out stealing all year was when he overslid the bag. Miguel Sano was 0-for-3 with a strikeout, and did not look especially comfortable the two times he had to run to first base. Paul Molitor has until Tuesday morning to submit his roster for the Wild Card game. It seems likely Sano will be present, but the Twins skipper will have a difficult decision to make as to whether or not to start Sano or turn to him as a pinch hitter. It was nice to see Colon’s season end on a high note, especially after he struggled in September. The game ended with Gabriel Moya, who entered the game in the eighth inning with the score 4-1, picking up his first career save. He struck out two batters over 1.2 perfect innings. So that does it for the regular season. Next up: The Wild Card game in New York. I'm already stressed out just thinking about it. This is gonna be awesome. Final AL Central Standings Cleveland 102-60 Minnesota 85-77 (-17) Kansas City 80-82 (-22) Chicago 67-95 (-35) Detroit 64-98 (-38) Final AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 91-71 (+6) WC2: Minnesota 85-77 Kansas City 80-82 (-5) Angels 80-82 (-5) Tampa Bay 80-82 (-5) Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/914625752598847488 Pitcher Usage Doing something different for the finale. Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the staff over the course of the entire season: Looking Ahead Mon: OFF Tue: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Yankees (Luis Severino), 6:00 pm CT Wed: OFF Thu: Twins (TBD) at Cleveland (TBD) … book it. Looking Back DET 3, MIN 2: Twins Lose In Romine Sideshow Game MIN 6, DET 3: Dozier, Escobar Lead Offense To Victory CLE 5, MIN 2: Ervin Caps Banner Year With 5 Shutout Innings -
Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Dozier led off the game with a double high off the left field wall, came around to score the first run and finished 3-for-5 with that three-run homer, his 33rd, and three runs scored. Byron Buxton successfully stole his 23rd-consecutive base, setting a new team record. He also made another insanely good catch. Bonus points for it coming in the eighth inning of a one-run game. Then he delivered an RBI single in the top of the ninth to provide a huge insurance run. https://twitter.com/statcast/status/912872001689309186 Eddie Rosario was also a handful for Cleveland pitchers, going 4-for-5 with his 27th homer. Rosario had a .660 OPS over the first month of the season, but quickly turned into as steady a contributor as you could ask for. He's had at least at .810 OPS in every month since (league average OPS is .751). There have been hot streaks from a number of other hitters that have overshadowed Rosario’s contributions to a degree, but Rosie has built a body of work over the summer that is truly impressive. Unfortunately, you still have to take the bad with the good when it comes to Rosario. He represented the go-ahead run after a leadoff double in the top of the fifth. Eduardo Escobar sent a chopper to the left side in front of Rosario, who was thrown out trying to advance to third. Conventional wisdom, for good reason, says you don't try to go to third unless the ball is hit between you and second base. Sigh. Oh that Eddie, when will he learn? The next batter hit into a double play. Bartolo Colon gave up two runs in the first inning and was removed from the game due to illness. There was a bizarre managerial moment in the third inning in which Paul Molitor was denied a request to make a pitching change. Tyler Duffey had allowed the first two batters of that inning to reach, and Neil Allen decided to go out and have a chat prior to Duffey facing lefty Jay Bruce. Duffey fell behind 2-0, which prompted Molitor to hop out of the dugout and call for Buddy Boshers … which was against the rules. I guess since Allen had already visited Duffey in that plate appearance, a change couldn't be made until it was over. Luckily that fiasco didn't matter much, as the rest of the pen provided 6.2 innings of two-run ball. Dillon Gee really got this contest back under control for the Twins, as he provided two scoreless, one-hit innings early on. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 88-69 (+5.0) WC2: Twins 83-74 Angels 78-79 (-5.0) ***ALL OTHER TEAMS ELIMINATED*** Postgame With Dozier Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Wed: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Cleveland (Danny Salazar), 6:10 pm CT Thu: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Cleveland (Carlos Carrasco), 11:10 am CT Fri: Twins (Jose Berrios) vs. Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 7:10 pm CT Looking Back MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen MIN 7, DET 3: Gibson, Offense Keep Rolling -
The Twins got a ridiculously short start from Bartolo Colon in what was a ridiculously long game against Cleveland, but Brian Dozier delivered a three-run homer in the eighth inning that lifted the Twins to victory. The Twins ended up using 10 pitchers, which was a team record for a nine-inning game.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: IMG_0689.PNG Download attachment: IMG_0690.PNG Dozier led off the game with a double high off the left field wall, came around to score the first run and finished 3-for-5 with that three-run homer, his 33rd, and three runs scored. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: IMG_0692.PNG Looking Ahead Wed: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Cleveland (Danny Salazar), 6:10 pm CT Thu: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Cleveland (Carlos Carrasco), 11:10 am CT Fri: Twins (Jose Berrios) vs. Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 7:10 pm CT Looking Back MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen MIN 7, DET 3: Gibson, Offense Keep Rolling Click here to view the article
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As long as the Twins avoid total collapse in the final week, they will be able to wrap up a pretty cool distinction as the first team ever to qualify for the postseason one year after losing 100-plus games. But while it would technically count as a playoff appearance, the Twins won't really be in it unless they can win that Wild Card game against New York and make the ALDS. It's been as evident in head-to-head match-ups as it is in the overall records: The Twins are not as good as the Yankees, nor any of the three other American League playoff teams. (Yet.) But as mentioned above, the one-game Wild Card format is ripe for upsets and even in the sample of a short playoff series, a lesser club can sometimes emerge. All it takes is a few well-timed hits and some good pitching performances. We know the lineup is capable of producing the former, but they will be facing very tough assignments. So the emphasis will be on the arms, as it often is in October. With this in mind, let's map out the Twins starters for the remaining six games of the regular season and into the playoffs. Based on La Velle's report that Paul Molitor has Bartolo Colon, Adalberto Mejia and Ervin Santana lined up to go in Cleveland this week, here's how I foresee the rotation playing out for the rest of the regular season, then in to a Wild Card game and hypothetical ALDS: @CLE 9/26: Colon @CLE 9/27: Mejia @CLE 9/28: Santana DET 9/29: Gibson DET 9/30: Berrios DET 10/1: Colon AL WC 10/3: Santana ALDS G1 10/5: Gibson ALDS G2 10/6: Berrios ALDS G3 10/8: Santana You're welcome to share your thoughts on this layout in the comments below. Here are a few things that stick out to me: Game 1 Gibby We can talk about how ridiculous it seems, or how horribly overmatched he will be against Corey Kluber or Justin Verlander, but we should also acknowledge how incredible this is. Kyle Gibson was one of the league's worst starting pitchers during the first half. He spent time in Triple-A in May, and produced only two quality starts in the first three months. His ERA was above 6 most of the summer, and as late as mid-August. But Gibby has been a different man in his last seven turns, guiding to the team to seven victories. Granted, he has gotten plenty of offensive support during that span, but the righty has also just pitched really well. He has gone at least six innings every time out, posting a 2.56 ERA and holding opponents to a .236 average (they hit .308 against him in his first 21 starts). Things are clearly clicking for the 29-year-old. I theorized at the end of August his wholesale mechanical adjustments might finally be gelling, and the theory remains plausible after five more convincing starts in September. With Ervin Santana being needed for the WC play-in, Gibson is a fairly easy choice for Game 1 in the event of an ALDS berth. The more pressing question is whether Molitor would call on Gibson again for Game 4 on three days' rest. Which leads us to another matter: No Bartolo? Not so long ago, the idea of rounding out a four-man playoff rotation with Bartolo Colon (hold your jokes please) would have seemed reasonable enough. He had a 3.94 ERA through 10 starts with the Twins, and was pitching deep into almost every game. Plus, he's got more experience than anyone in the game, and the big stage is not unfamiliar to him – he's made 10 postseason starts and has generally been up to the task (3.49 ERA). But lately Colon has appeared cooked, as though the magic that buoyed him through an initial resurgence with Minnesota has run dry. He has allowed 16 earned runs over 11 innings in his past three starts, delivering non-competitive efforts in Kansas City and New York. I'm not sure you could really justify starting him against the high-octane Astros or Indians, even if you had a series lead and the alternative was Gibson on short rest. And if you can't start him, is there really a reason to have Colon on the postseason roster? Wondering About Workloads Santana went over 200 innings in his last start, and if he throws five against Cleveland on Thursday he'll finish at 211 for the campaign. That's his highest total since 2013, so it's worth pondering how his arm will hold up going into October. The Twins could ask him to pitch three if they win the Wild Card and push the ALDS to five games. Erv has looked as sharp as ever his last three times out – including a very impressive outing against the Yanks – so there's seemingly not much cause for concern. Jose Berrios is another case. He's an intriguing piece in this equation because if he's on his game, he might give Minnesota the best chance of anyone for a dominating, shut-down performance. But Berrios has been rather inconsistent at this late stage of the season and it might owe to his career-high workload. Between Triple-A and the majors, he's currently at 179 innings, which is 10 more than last year's benchmark. The 23-year-old's velocity is holding up well into late September (he averaged 94.58 MPH with the heater in his last turn, per Brooks Baseball) but his command has gone amiss of late. You could make a case for him in Game 1 but I think Molitor is wise to shield him a bit at this point. What are your thoughts? Do you think a playoff rotation would, or should, shake out differently? And isn't it wild that we're talking about this? Sound off in the comments. -
Article: Charting A Twins Playoff Rotation
Nick Nelson posted a topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What once seemed unthinkable is now a crystallizing reality: The Twins are in all likelihood headed toward a one-game Wild Card showdown against the Yankees in New York on October 3rd. And while they will be heavy underdogs in such a contest – especially after what we saw in the Bronx last week – in one game, anything can happen. Let's start looking ahead.As long as the Twins avoid total collapse in the final week, they will be able to wrap up a pretty cool distinction as the first team ever to qualify for the postseason one year after losing 100-plus games. But while it would technically count as a playoff appearance, the Twins won't really be in it unless they can win that Wild Card game against New York and make the ALDS. It's been as evident in head-to-head match-ups as it is in the overall records: The Twins are not as good as the Yankees, nor any of the three other American League playoff teams. (Yet.) But as mentioned above, the one-game Wild Card format is ripe for upsets and even in the sample of a short playoff series, a lesser club can sometimes emerge. All it takes is a few well-timed hits and some good pitching performances. We know the lineup is capable of producing the former, but they will be facing very tough assignments. So the emphasis will be on the arms, as it often is in October. With this in mind, let's map out the Twins starters for the remaining six games of the regular season and into the playoffs. Based on La Velle's report that Paul Molitor has Bartolo Colon, Adalberto Mejia and Ervin Santana lined up to go in Cleveland this week, here's how I foresee the rotation playing out for the rest of the regular season, then in to a Wild Card game and hypothetical ALDS: @CLE 9/26: Colon @CLE 9/27: Mejia @CLE 9/28: Santana DET 9/29: Gibson DET 9/30: Berrios DET 10/1: Colon AL WC 10/3: Santana ALDS G1 10/5: Gibson ALDS G2 10/6: Berrios ALDS G3 10/8: Santana You're welcome to share your thoughts on this layout in the comments below. Here are a few things that stick out to me: Game 1 Gibby We can talk about how ridiculous it seems, or how horribly overmatched he will be against Corey Kluber or Justin Verlander, but we should also acknowledge how incredible this is. Kyle Gibson was one of the league's worst starting pitchers during the first half. He spent time in Triple-A in May, and produced only two quality starts in the first three months. His ERA was above 6 most of the summer, and as late as mid-August. But Gibby has been a different man in his last seven turns, guiding to the team to seven victories. Granted, he has gotten plenty of offensive support during that span, but the righty has also just pitched really well. He has gone at least six innings every time out, posting a 2.56 ERA and holding opponents to a .236 average (they hit .308 against him in his first 21 starts). Things are clearly clicking for the 29-year-old. I theorized at the end of August his wholesale mechanical adjustments might finally be gelling, and the theory remains plausible after five more convincing starts in September. With Ervin Santana being needed for the WC play-in, Gibson is a fairly easy choice for Game 1 in the event of an ALDS berth. The more pressing question is whether Molitor would call on Gibson again for Game 4 on three days' rest. Which leads us to another matter: No Bartolo? Not so long ago, the idea of rounding out a four-man playoff rotation with Bartolo Colon (hold your jokes please) would have seemed reasonable enough. He had a 3.94 ERA through 10 starts with the Twins, and was pitching deep into almost every game. Plus, he's got more experience than anyone in the game, and the big stage is not unfamiliar to him – he's made 10 postseason starts and has generally been up to the task (3.49 ERA). But lately Colon has appeared cooked, as though the magic that buoyed him through an initial resurgence with Minnesota has run dry. He has allowed 16 earned runs over 11 innings in his past three starts, delivering non-competitive efforts in Kansas City and New York. I'm not sure you could really justify starting him against the high-octane Astros or Indians, even if you had a series lead and the alternative was Gibson on short rest. And if you can't start him, is there really a reason to have Colon on the postseason roster? Wondering About Workloads Santana went over 200 innings in his last start, and if he throws five against Cleveland on Thursday he'll finish at 211 for the campaign. That's his highest total since 2013, so it's worth pondering how his arm will hold up going into October. The Twins could ask him to pitch three if they win the Wild Card and push the ALDS to five games. Erv has looked as sharp as ever his last three times out – including a very impressive outing against the Yanks – so there's seemingly not much cause for concern. Jose Berrios is another case. He's an intriguing piece in this equation because if he's on his game, he might give Minnesota the best chance of anyone for a dominating, shut-down performance. But Berrios has been rather inconsistent at this late stage of the season and it might owe to his career-high workload. Between Triple-A and the majors, he's currently at 179 innings, which is 10 more than last year's benchmark. The 23-year-old's velocity is holding up well into late September (he averaged 94.58 MPH with the heater in his last turn, per Brooks Baseball) but his command has gone amiss of late. You could make a case for him in Game 1 but I think Molitor is wise to shield him a bit at this point. What are your thoughts? Do you think a playoff rotation would, or should, shake out differently? And isn't it wild that we're talking about this? Sound off in the comments. Click here to view the article- 78 replies
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The Yankees completed their sweep with a bang, blowing out the Twins 11-3. That’s the bad news, and it definitely stings. The good news? The rest of the AL Wild Card contenders are steeped in mediocrity. No matter what happens with the Angels tonight the Twins will maintain their lead in the Wild Card race.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot920.png Bartolo Colon struggled today and has been a mess of late. Over his last three starts, he's has given up 16 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. Today, Colon gave up six runs on seven hits, two of them home runs, over 3.1 innings pitched. What made matters worse was the bullpen couldn’t stop the bleeding. Tyler Duffey gave up three runs over 0.2 innings and Nik Turley gave up a pair while recording just a single out. That implosion was especially depressing because the Twins had jumped out to a 3-0 lead. Kennys Vargas got things going in the third inning with a one-out infield single. He then advanced from first to third on a Jason Castro single. I guess that silent “s” stands for speedy. Brian Dozier drew a walk to load the bases before Joe Mauer put together what may have been the team’s finest at-bat of the entire season. Facing Luis Severino, who has been among the best pitchers in the American League this season, Mauer fell behind 0-1 and then 1-2. He fouled off seven of the next nine pitches, taking the other two for balls. On the 13th and final pitch of the at-bat, Mauer pulled a 99 mph fastball through the infield for an RBI single. Jorge Polanco followed with a two-run single and the Twins were up 3-0. But just when it was feeling like they might get the monkey off their back, Colon gave up two homers in the bottom of the inning to tie it up. It was a bad day that ended a bad series for the Twins, but luckily they’re still in control of their own destiny. Even if the Angels win tonight (UPDATE: they didn't), they’ll still be a half game back. Plus, seven of the Twins last 10 games come against the Tigers, who have been the worst team in baseball over the past month. Coming into today, Detroit was 9-21 over their last 30 games. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 85-67 (+7.0) WC2: Twins 78-74 Angels 76-75 (-1.5) Rangers 75-76 (-2.5) Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen920.png Looking Ahead Thu: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Tigers (Jordan Zimmermann), 6:10 pm ET Fri: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Tigers (Matt Boyd), 6:10 pm ET Sat: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Tigers (Buck Farmer), 5:10 pm CT Looking Back NYY 5, MIN 2: Tough Night For Berrios, Twins NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory Click here to view the article
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Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Bartolo Colon struggled today and has been a mess of late. Over his last three starts, he's has given up 16 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. Today, Colon gave up six runs on seven hits, two of them home runs, over 3.1 innings pitched. What made matters worse was the bullpen couldn’t stop the bleeding. Tyler Duffey gave up three runs over 0.2 innings and Nik Turley gave up a pair while recording just a single out. That implosion was especially depressing because the Twins had jumped out to a 3-0 lead. Kennys Vargas got things going in the third inning with a one-out infield single. He then advanced from first to third on a Jason Castro single. I guess that silent “s” stands for speedy. Brian Dozier drew a walk to load the bases before Joe Mauer put together what may have been the team’s finest at-bat of the entire season. Facing Luis Severino, who has been among the best pitchers in the American League this season, Mauer fell behind 0-1 and then 1-2. He fouled off seven of the next nine pitches, taking the other two for balls. On the 13th and final pitch of the at-bat, Mauer pulled a 99 mph fastball through the infield for an RBI single. Jorge Polanco followed with a two-run single and the Twins were up 3-0. But just when it was feeling like they might get the monkey off their back, Colon gave up two homers in the bottom of the inning to tie it up. It was a bad day that ended a bad series for the Twins, but luckily they’re still in control of their own destiny. Even if the Angels win tonight (UPDATE: they didn't), they’ll still be a half game back. Plus, seven of the Twins last 10 games come against the Tigers, who have been the worst team in baseball over the past month. Coming into today, Detroit was 9-21 over their last 30 games. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 85-67 (+7.0) WC2: Twins 78-74 Angels 76-75 (-1.5) Rangers 75-76 (-2.5) Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/910611519473250304 Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Thu: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Tigers (Jordan Zimmermann), 6:10 pm ET Fri: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Tigers (Matt Boyd), 6:10 pm ET Sat: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Tigers (Buck Farmer), 5:10 pm CT Looking Back NYY 5, MIN 2: Tough Night For Berrios, Twins NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory -
After a pair of big wins on big blasts, the Twins fell Friday due in large part to an unlucky bounce. Bartolo Colon got off to a nice start on Big Sexy night at Target Field, but things started to go a bit south and the bullpen couldn’t stop the bleeding. Ryan Pressly failed to pounce on a bunt and gave up the go-ahead single on a ball that deflected off his leg.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot915.png With the game tied at 3-3 with two outs in the seventh inning, Josh Donaldson sent a comebacker right toward Ryan Pressly. The ball ricocheted off Pressly’s leg and shot toward the hole between shortstop and third base. Jorge Polanco, who had broken toward where the ball had been hit, could merely watch the go-ahead run cross the plate as he retrieved the ball. The Blue Jays bullpen did an excellent job of making that one-run advantage hold up, combining for 2.2 perfect innings. The Twins led 3-1 heading into the top of the sixth, but Colon started to run out of gas and Pressly couldn’t quite contain the Jays. Big Sexy gave up a solo homer to Donaldson in the sixth, but had a very manageable pitch count. He opened the seventh by walking the leadoff man and giving up a double to the next batter. On the very first pitch Pressly threw, he was unable to bounce on a bunt (there goes that word again), and gave up a single. With the bases juiced, he managed to retire the next two batters, but Donaldson’s tough-luck comebacker was the straw that finally broke the camel’s back. Colon gave up four earned runs on five hits and two walks over 6.0 innings. He had just one strikeout. Brian Dozier was 2-for-4 and hit his 31st homer, which was the Twins lone extra-base hit. Byron Buxton was also 2-or-4 and stole his 26th base. Tyler Duffey had been scuffling, but he held Toronto scoreless over the final two innings. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 81-66 (+4.0) WC2: Twins 77-70 Angels 74-72 (-2.5)* Friday game still in progress when this published. Seattle 74-74 (-3.5) Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen915.png Looking Ahead Sat: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) vs. Blue Jays (Marco Estrada), 6:10 pm CT Sun: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Blue Jays (Joe Biagini), 1:10 pm CT Mon: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Yankees (Sonny Gray) , 6:05 pm CT Looking Back MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR MIN 3, SDP 1: Rosario Hits Walk-Off HR in 10th Inning MIN 16, SDP 0: MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record Click here to view the article
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TOR 4, MIN 3: Pressley Fails To Pounce, Is Victim Of A Bad Bounce
Tom Froemming posted an article in Twins
Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) With the game tied at 3-3 with two outs in the seventh inning, Josh Donaldson sent a comebacker right toward Ryan Pressly. The ball ricocheted off Pressly’s leg and shot toward the hole between shortstop and third base. Jorge Polanco, who had broken toward where the ball had been hit, could merely watch the go-ahead run cross the plate as he retrieved the ball. The Blue Jays bullpen did an excellent job of making that one-run advantage hold up, combining for 2.2 perfect innings. The Twins led 3-1 heading into the top of the sixth, but Colon started to run out of gas and Pressly couldn’t quite contain the Jays. Big Sexy gave up a solo homer to Donaldson in the sixth, but had a very manageable pitch count. He opened the seventh by walking the leadoff man and giving up a double to the next batter. On the very first pitch Pressly threw, he was unable to bounce on a bunt (there goes that word again), and gave up a single. With the bases juiced, he managed to retire the next two batters, but Donaldson’s tough-luck comebacker was the straw that finally broke the camel’s back. Colon gave up four earned runs on five hits and two walks over 6.0 innings. He had just one strikeout. Brian Dozier was 2-for-4 and hit his 31st homer, which was the Twins lone extra-base hit. Byron Buxton was also 2-or-4 and stole his 26th base. Tyler Duffey had been scuffling, but he held Toronto scoreless over the final two innings. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 81-66 (+4.0) WC2: Twins 77-70 Angels 74-72 (-2.5)* Friday game still in progress when this published. Seattle 74-74 (-3.5) Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/908897593274507265 Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Sat: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) vs. Blue Jays (Marco Estrada), 6:10 pm CT Sun: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Blue Jays (Joe Biagini), 1:10 pm CT Mon: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Yankees (Sonny Gray) , 6:05 pm CT Looking Back MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR MIN 3, SDP 1: Rosario Hits Walk-Off HR in 10th Inning MIN 16, SDP 0: MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record -
9/15 PREGAME NOTES: Colon vs. Happ, Big Sexy Night, Sano Update
Brandon Warne posted a blog entry in BW on the Beat
Greetings from Target Field, where it is sunny and warm as the Twins look to make it two in a row over the visiting Toronto Blue Jays. It’ll be righty Bartolo Colon (4.69 ERA, 4.94 FIP in 63.1 innings with the Twins) on the mound for the Twins and the second lefty in a row on the mound for Toronto in J.A. Happ (3.73 ERA, 4.00 FIP in 125.1 innings). More on that in a bit. It’s Big Sexy night at Target Field, and it’s not just because Colon is taking the mound. The Twins had a special ticket package that included a ticket to the game and a special t-shirt, and it sold out in advance of Friday night’s game. What exactly encompasses the mystique of Big Sexy? Manager Paul Molitor tried to describe it. “I’m sure there are a lot of people who have tried to describe it,” Molitor offered. “The fact he’s been able to continually deny the odds and do what he’s done in the game, do it in a way that’s colorful, doing it in a way that’s obviously very fun-loving in terms of his attitude toward the game. he knows the seriousness of baseball, but he could just as well be playing a little sandlot ball with his buddies. you just never know what particular antic he’s going to bring to a game.” It’s not just a sideshow, though, Molitor said. The burly righty has done a good job cutting the tension for a club that’s in the middle of a race to the postseason. “Added to that, he’s pitching pretty good baseball,” Molitor said. “(Colon) along with other guys out there, are like ‘Hey, everything’s going to be fine.’ Guys, for the most part, are just doing what they’re doing. We haven’t seen too many guys show up in terms of pressure affecting how they pitch or hit. There’s going to be moments — the game gets pretty big at times. We just try to slow it down. But having those veteran presences certainly helps.” On a nice note, Jose Berrios and his wife Jannieliz welcomed their second child on Friday afternoon around 2:20. It’s a healthy baby boy named Diego, and Molitor said that he told Jose to take some time to be with his family before showing up to the ballpark sometime tonight. There had been some chatter about Berrios dealing with fatigue of late, though Molitor said that’s more of a general fatigue as opposed to arm fatigue. “I think it’s more general fatigue than arm,” Molitor said. “We’re just going to try to be smart, whether it’s how long we let him go on a given day to the fact that we all know how he works out. We’ve been trying to get him to back off a little bit. Not to stop working out, but just to conserve the best you can for the days you pitch. We’ll have to see when he goes out there how he looks on a given day and how he’s feeling. I’m not concerned to the point where I have to back him off a start or anything, but you have to keep an eye on these things late in the year.” Molitor added that Berrios is not throwing full bullpens at this point in the year, and that his last one was limited to just 15 pitches. For the full story, click here to read it on Zone Coverage. -
Bartolo Colon had been remarkably consistent since joining the Twins, but he had a stinker of a Sunday afternoon in Kansas City. He gave up six runs in the second inning, giving the Twins very little hope to escape KC with a series win.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot910.png Big Sexy lasted just 1.2 innings, but lucky for the Twins they had a couple of fresh long relievers to choose from. But Colon wasn’t the only Minnesota pitcher feeling the Sunday blues right now. John Curtiss got rocked for four runs while recording just a single out. The big blow was a three-run blast to Brandon Moss. Curtiss was among the best relievers in all of the minor leagues this season, but after five big league appearances he holds a 19.64 ERA. Kennys Vargas was 2-for-2 with a two-run homer and a pair of walks. Ehire Adrianza, who started in left field, was the only other Twin to collect two hits. Dillon Gee pitched 3.0 shutout innings of relief. Not much else to say about this one. The Twins got crushed. They’ll have tomorrow off to lick their wounds and prepare to host the Padres for two games. Standings Both the Yankees and Angels games were still in progress at the time this published. At the moment, the Twins sit 3.0 games back of New York and hold a 1.5 game advantage over Anaheim. Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen910.png Looking Ahead Mon: Off Tue: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Padres (Travis Wood), 7:10 pm CT Wed: Twins (Ervin Santana) vs. Padres (Dinelson Lamet), 7:10 pm CT Looking Back KC 5, MIN 2: Molitor Pushes All the Wrong Buttons in Loss MIN 8, KC 5: Rosario Drives in 4, Hildenberger Holds it Together MIN 4, KC 2: Comeback Complete Click here to view the article
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Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Big Sexy lasted just 1.2 innings, but lucky for the Twins they had a couple of fresh long relievers to choose from. But Colon wasn’t the only Minnesota pitcher feeling the Sunday blues right now. John Curtiss got rocked for four runs while recording just a single out. The big blow was a three-run blast to Brandon Moss. Curtiss was among the best relievers in all of the minor leagues this season, but after five big league appearances he holds a 19.64 ERA. Kennys Vargas was 2-for-2 with a two-run homer and a pair of walks. Ehire Adrianza, who started in left field, was the only other Twin to collect two hits. Dillon Gee pitched 3.0 shutout innings of relief. Not much else to say about this one. The Twins got crushed. They’ll have tomorrow off to lick their wounds and prepare to host the Padres for two games. Standings Both the Yankees and Angels games were still in progress at the time this published. At the moment, the Twins sit 3.0 games back of New York and hold a 1.5 game advantage over Anaheim. Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/906995783211163648 Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Mon: Off Tue: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Padres (Travis Wood), 7:10 pm CT Wed: Twins (Ervin Santana) vs. Padres (Dinelson Lamet), 7:10 pm CT Looking Back KC 5, MIN 2: Molitor Pushes All the Wrong Buttons in Loss MIN 8, KC 5: Rosario Drives in 4, Hildenberger Holds it Together MIN 4, KC 2: Comeback Complete -
In a surprising move, Minnesota ended up being the team to give Colon another chance. By July 7, Paul Molitor’s squad had already run out ten different starters. The team was competing, but there was a revolving door on the mound. Needing more than a second wave of starting depth, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were virtually without options. Bartolo was a surprising choice, but he made some sense. Despite being 44, Colon was just a year removed from an all-star appearance with the New York Mets. He posted a 3.43 ERA and had a solid 3.99 FIP. Long gone were the days of blowing the ball by hitters, but he remained a control artist who limited walks. On his signing, I wondered if what the Twins offered him didn’t present a chance for something very good to materialize as a result of improved receiving behind the plate, and an exceptional defense in the field. At this point, I think it’s fair to say it has worked out swimmingly. Now through eight starts for the Twins Colon owns a 4.04 ERA and has posted three quality starts. He’s still not striking anyone out, but he’s shaved a full walk off his free pass rate since coming to Minnesota. The most critical change he’s made however is how well he’s attacked the strike zone. As Colon has gotten older, he’s eaten innings by pounding the strike zone. While still throwing 90 mph, he’s gotten by through changing speeds, looks, and pitches all while staying in the zone. That is something he had gotten away from in Atlanta, and it was at a point where framing didn’t much matter. Since joining the Twins, he’s once again the number one starter in baseball when it comes to percentage of pitches in the zone. Combining that with an above average defender and framer behind the plate he’s seen an incredible boost to his overall numbers. Behind him, Colon has gotten even more help. With the Braves, the longtime vet posted a 5.07 FIP and has actually been worse in Minnesota, owning a 5.64 FIP. That increase has been mitigated however by the extremely solid defensive prowess the Twins possess. As things stand in 2017, Atlanta owns a -34 DRS score which ranks 28th in all of baseball. Minnesota on the other hand, has +20 DRS coming in at the seventh best mark in the sport. While there are weak spots defensively, having a center fielder who has posted 24 DRS patrolling the outfield is hardly a bad thing. The numbers continue to point towards Minnesota being a great answer for Colon when taking a deeper dive. Despite still allowing an OPS of .881 to opposing hitters as a Twin, Colon is allowing just a .299 BABIP as opposed to a .360 mark with his previous team. He’s actually generating about 7% fewer ground balls with the Twins, but his strand rate has jumped from 48.2% all the way to 88.1%. Simply put, baserunners who were once piling up runs are now either not reaching, or simply being a footnote in an otherwise low-stress inning. There’s no denying that, long term, Father Time is undefeated and Bartolo Colon is nearing the end of his journey. Whether this season, the next, or soon thereafter, Colon will need to hang up his cleats. The Twins needed a steadying presence in their starting rotation, and the Dominican native has been that and more. Instead of being another so-so addition to the rising number of starting pitchers for the club, he’s been a predictable, better-than-expected starter every fifth day. Whether or not the Twins make the postseason isn’t going to rest on Colon’s shoulders. It is certain though, that without him, their chances dwindle substantially. At 44 years old, Bartolo Colon has continued to show the importance of throwing strikes, and that much alone has given new life to a season that had appeared to be on life support. If players talk, and it's a good assumption that they do, Colon will have plenty to sell regarding the allure of the Minnesota Twins. For an organization that will need to add a few arms over the winter, the draw to Target Field has gotten a whole lot stronger. -
Looking Forward -- Who Should Start a Twins Wild Card Game?
Brandon Warne posted a blog entry in BW on the Beat
Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read this article in its entirety. A Minnesota Twins win coupled with a Los Angeles Angels loss on Wednesday flipped the script in the Wild Card chase yet again. The Twins halted a skid of losing three straight games and four of their last five, and jumped back ahead of the Angels by a half-game for the final Wild Card spot behind the New York Yankees. That half-game difference will go away on Thursday, as the Twins head to Kansas City to take on the Royals, while the Angels are idle before opening a weekend set in Seattle on Friday night with old friend Ricky Nolasco on the hill. One would be hard-pressed to find a reputable outlet which gives the Twins much more than a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs -- which frankly is fine considering the number of teams in the hunt within just a few games -- but why not start to dream a little bit about who could take the ball in a one-game Wild Card playoff, whether it's at Target Field, at Yankee Stadium or wherever else might be in play? One thing we can be reasonably confident about is that the race will come down to the wire, all but making lining up the rotation for that start an impossibility. Certainly, things may happen between now and then, including injuries, rainouts or the manipulation of the rotation via the return of Adalberto Mejia, or the use of one of the two remaining in-season off days -- next Monday and two weeks from that day -- to shuffle some things around. Theoretically, it might make some sense to shuffle the rotation to maximize the number of starts Ervin Santana or Jose Berrios make down the stretch, but at the same time it might not be worth wearing them out at the expense of Kyle Gibson and Bartolo Colon -- both of whom are pitching fairly well. Assuming the Twins stay on regular rest all the way through the rest of the season, Berrios is slated to start the final game of the season, with Santana starting on Sept. 30. With the simple manipulation of one or both of the remaining off days, either one could theoretically be lined up to make the start in a potential Wild Card game.- 7 comments
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Looking Forward -- Who Should Start a Twins Wild Card Game?
Brandon Warne posted a blog entry in BW on the Beat
Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read this article in its entirety. A Minnesota Twins win coupled with a Los Angeles Angels loss on Wednesday flipped the script in the Wild Card chase yet again. The Twins halted a skid of losing three straight games and four of their last five, and jumped back ahead of the Angels by a half-game for the final Wild Card spot behind the New York Yankees. That half-game difference will go away on Thursday, as the Twins head to Kansas City to take on the Royals, while the Angels are idle before opening a weekend set in Seattle on Friday night with old friend Ricky Nolasco on the hill. One would be hard-pressed to find a reputable outlet which gives the Twins much more than a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs -- which frankly is fine considering the number of teams in the hunt within just a few games -- but why not start to dream a little bit about who could take the ball in a one-game Wild Card playoff, whether it's at Target Field, at Yankee Stadium or wherever else might be in play? One thing we can be reasonably confident about is that the race will come down to the wire, all but making lining up the rotation for that start an impossibility. Certainly, things may happen between now and then, including injuries, rainouts or the manipulation of the rotation via the return of Adalberto Mejia, or the use of one of the two remaining in-season off days -- next Monday and two weeks from that day -- to shuffle some things around. Theoretically, it might make some sense to shuffle the rotation to maximize the number of starts Ervin Santana or Jose Berrios make down the stretch, but at the same time it might not be worth wearing them out at the expense of Kyle Gibson and Bartolo Colon -- both of whom are pitching fairly well. Assuming the Twins stay on regular rest all the way through the rest of the season, Berrios is slated to start the final game of the season, with Santana starting on Sept. 30. With the simple manipulation of one or both of the remaining off days, either one could theoretically be lined up to make the start in a potential Wild Card game. -
Bartolo Colon turned in another strong effort and Robbie Grossman returned to provide a leadoff homer in the ninth, but the Twins fell just short of completing a comeback Tuesday night, leaving the game-tying run at third base. This was the third game out of their last four the Twins have lost.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: SnapShot95.png The Twins sure ran into Jake Odorizzi at the wrong time. Over his previous three starts, the right-hander gave up 13 runs over 12.1 innings, but the streaky starter found his groove Tuesday night. Odorizzi held the Twins hitless into the seventh inning, and finished his night having given up just the one hit (a Joe Mauer single) over 6.2 innings to go with six strikeouts. Colon turned in a quality start of his own, surrendering two runs over 6.2 innings, but lost the duel. One hitter in particular got the best of him. Lucas Duda drove in both of those runs off Bartolo, hitting a solo homer and an RBI double. The Twins only offense came in the top of the ninth, as the returning Grossman hit a leadoff homer. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen95.png Looking Ahead Wed: Twins (Aaron Slegers) at Tampa Bay(Blake Snell), 12:10 pm CT Thu: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Kansas City (Sam Gaviglio), 7:15 pm CT Fri: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Kansas City (Ian Kennedy), 7:15 pm CT Looking Back Mon: TB 11, MIN 4: Bullpen Lets Game Get Out Of Hand Sun: KC 5, MIN 4: What Even Is A Swing, Anyway? Sat: MIN 17, KC 0: What Negative Run Differential? Click here to view the article
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Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) The Twins sure ran into Jake Odorizzi at the wrong time. Over his previous three starts, the right-hander gave up 13 runs over 12.1 innings, but the streaky starter found his groove Tuesday night. Odorizzi held the Twins hitless into the seventh inning, and finished his night having given up just the one hit (a Joe Mauer single) over 6.2 innings to go with six strikeouts. Colon turned in a quality start of his own, surrendering two runs over 6.2 innings, but lost the duel. One hitter in particular got the best of him. Lucas Duda drove in both of those runs off Bartolo, hitting a solo homer and an RBI double. The Twins only offense came in the top of the ninth, as the returning Grossman hit a leadoff homer. https://twitter.com/TheRenderMLB_/status/905244188639461380 It was fitting Robbie provided the pop, as the significant news tonight all revolved around players returning. Along with Grossman being activated from the DL, Jason Castro caught for the first time since Aug. 23. Also, Michael Tonkin returned to the big club, though he did not pitch tonight. The Twins nearly completed the comeback in the ninth inning. Joe Mauer drew a walk and Jorge Polanco hit a single, putting runners on the corners with one out. Unfortunately, Eddie Rosario (swinging on the first pitch) grounded into a game-ending double play. He hit it hard, but Tampa Bay had him played perfectly. https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/905252339551961088 Standings The Yankees game started in a delay and the Angels had just gotten underway at the conclusion of this game. With a win, the Angels would take possession of the second wild card spot. They are playing Oakland. Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/905253103078801409 Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Wed: Twins (Aaron Slegers) at Tampa Bay(Blake Snell), 12:10 pm CT Thu: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Kansas City (Sam Gaviglio), 7:15 pm CT Fri: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Kansas City (Ian Kennedy), 7:15 pm CT Looking Back Mon: TB 11, MIN 4: Bullpen Lets Game Get Out Of Hand Sun: KC 5, MIN 4: What Even Is A Swing, Anyway? Sat: MIN 17, KC 0: What Negative Run Differential? -
Just when you think you’ve seen it all, the Twins go out and win a game on a walk-off hit batsman. After Eddie Rosario delivered a game-tying single in the bottom of the ninth, Max Kepler took one for the team to give the Twins their 70th victory of the season.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: IMG_20170831_155217.jpg Download attachment: chart.png On his second pitch on the ninth, Belisle gave up a crushing go-ahead homer to Alen Hanson. He also walked the next batter, but to his credit Belisle righted the ship and struck out three of the next four batters he faced to limit the damage. There was an intentional walk in the middle of those K's. You never like to see your closer (are we calling him that?) give up a go-ahead home run in the ninth, but at least he didn’t completely unravel. With David Robertson traded away, the White Sox have a lot of uncertainty in the back end of their bullpen, too. Juan Minaya, who entered the game with three career saves, coughed up the lead in the bottom of the ninth. Ehire Adrianza led off the inning with a pinch-hit single. Zack Granite popped out on a bunt attempt for the first out, but thank goodness in the end it didn’t matter. Brian Dozier walked, Rosario hit a game-tying single and Joe Mauer walked to load the bases. Jorge Polanco hit the first pitch he saw back to the pitcher for the second out. That’s when the Kepler heroics happened. Well, maybe that’s overselling it a bit. The very first pitch of the at-bat, an 88 mph slider, hit Max to give the Twins yet another August win. It looked like it got him squarely on the back shin, but Max was able to jog down to first and participate in the victory celebration. Kepler also hit a game-tying RBI double in the fifth inning. It was an odd day for Bartolo. Typically a wizard at coaxing “good” contact, Colon gave up 10 hits. Also weird: he struck out a season-high eight batters. At the end of the day, that combination resulted in a quality start (6.0 IP, 3 ER). Alan Busenitz pitched two shutout innings before Belisle gave up the run in the ninth. The Twins got some great news on Byron Buxton. His hand injury is merely considered day-to-day, a bruise of the hamate bone. Standings Cleveland was off, so the Twins are now 6.5 games back in the division. The Yankees won, but the Orioles finally lost. So the Twins remain a game back of New York for the first Wild Card and are 1.5 games up on the Angels for the second spot. Baltimore is 2.5 back. The next teams trail the Twins by four games. The crowd has started to thin out. Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: IMG_20170831_154811.jpg Looking Ahead Fri: Twins (Dillon Gee) vs. Royals (Jason Hammel), 7:10 pm CT Sat: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Royals (TBD), 6:10 pm CT Sun: Twins (Ervin Santana) vs. Royals (TBD), 1:10 pm CT Looking Back MIN 11, CHW 1: Rosario Hits 2 HRs, Buxton Exits With Injury MIN 6, CHW 4: Polanco Does it All MIN 7, TOR 2: Buxton Hits 3 Homers, Twins Win Series at Toronto Click here to view the article
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