Search the Community

For whatever reason, it continues to get thrown out there that the Twins should explore trading Carlos Correa. While he is signed to a three-year contract, his opt-outs have always effectively made the deal a one-year pact. If they do want to move him at the deadline, what type of value are we actually talking about? First and foremost, let’s get this out there. The idea of dealing one of your top two players while leading the division seems asinine in and of itself, regardless of the tenure Carlos Correa was going to have with the Twins, Minnesota was able to bring him through a perfect set of circumstances, and he immediately makes their chances to win in the postseason this year that much better. Bad teams look to sign veterans on expiring deals in order to flip them for prospects. Minnesota is not a bad team, Correa’s contract is not a traditional one-year deal, and the chief purpose of bringing him in was always to win. Ok, now, let’s go down the rabbit hole of actually dealing him. The only reason to do this would be for Minnesota to recoup more future value than the absence of Correa would provide. However, given their positioning for the current postseason, they’d need to keep a similar level of overall talent on the big league roster. That means Minnesota’s front office would be hard-pressed to explain dealing Correa for a package filled with future prospects. There would have to be a current major-league asset included, and that would likely water down the overall value. Then there’s the reality that the Twins are trying to replace a guy that’s consistently put up at least 3.0 fWAR on an annual basis, and is again angling to do that. Of the more than 1,500 players to appear at the major-league level last season, 64 of them posted a 3.0 fWAR or better (roughly 4%). To summarize, a player worth 3.0 fWAR in any given season is an incredibly valuable asset. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were both considered uber prospects for the Twins in their time. Buxton has surpassed 3.0 fWAR in half of his eight big league seasons while Sano has never done so and has been worth a total of just 8.4 fWAR across eight seasons. Trying to nail a prospect, even the best ones, is an inexact science and could leave any potential return feeling light for years down the road. Looking at Baseball Trade Values, Correa himself is also not some juggernaut in terms of expected value. The simulator puts him at 15.4 at the median, which ranks just above prospect Spencer Steer’s 14. By comparison, the Nationals Juan Soto is at 176.8 as a median trade value. Getting a prospect like Yankees Anthony Volpe would require something like 52.6 in trade value, and even a big league ace in Luis Castillo would require something like 41.2 in median trade value. What we’re getting at here is that while Correa is ridiculously talented, and potentially one of the best players that could be had, his value is held down in being a current rental for any acquiring team as well. Although a new organization would possess exclusive negotiating rights to a new deal, Correa would still be looking for the long-term payday that takes him at least through his age 37 or 38 season. Arguably the best way to drive his price up is by finding multiple bidders on the open market. Whether a team believes they can sign him or not, they’d need some sort of guarantee from Scott Boras (unlikely) before giving up value assuming the player is more than a two or three-month hired assassin. All of this continues to turn back to the Twins. There are very few ways that dealing Carlos Correa would make them better immediately. The likelihood that dealing him makes them better in the long run is bleak as well. Sure, if he leaves, they lose him for nothing, but it was always assumed this was a one-year thing in which he could contribute during a postseason run. Why would you embark on that path at the beginning, and then deviate from it when it’s going so well? View full article