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By now you’ve seen the San Francisco Giants back out of a mega-deal with former Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa. The New York Mets then took advantage of an opportunity to sign him, but have come up with red flags as well. Did the Twins miss something when they signed the shortstop last spring? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports After Derek Falvey was able to shed Josh Donaldson’s salary in a trade with the New York Yankees, the Twins all of a sudden had additional funds. Thinking they were linked to Trevor Story relatively heavily, it wound up being Carlos Correa that they made a pact with in the wee hours of the night. Scott Boras and Minnesota’s front office came together on a creative deal to bring the former Houston Astro to a mid-market club. While the deal was officially a three-year pact, the opt out ability after one year was always going to be exercised. Correa landed the greatest single-season average annual value for an infielder passing Anthony Rendon, and he got to explore the market again this season. While it wasn’t a ten-year deal, the Twins still were looking to protect their investment in doing a physical prior to things being finalized. Nothing out of the ordinary came up and both sides went about their business. In a new report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, it was revealed that the holdup for Correa in regards to his physical deals with a surgery he had in 2014. Correa fractured his fibula as a prospect and the injury impacted his ankle more than his knee. The New York Mets apparently have similar concerns to the San Francisco Giants, but it’s not so much about what Correa’s body has indicated at all. Looking at MRI results from that surgery, and how he has healed since, there is a question as to how his leg may hold up over time. As Twins Daily’s own Lucas Seehafer points out, that may not be the best way to utilize an MRI, and could be much ado about nothing. Obviously Correa’s agent, Boras, has pointed out that he has missed very little time over the recent portion of his career and it has never been in relation to an ankle or leg injury. Correa’s back was problematic for a time, but that doesn’t seem to be anything of a concern for the teams willing to spend $300 million on him. When Boras began shopping Correa’s services again following the Giants decision, or lack thereof, the Twins were consulted but didn’t want to raise an already low offer and had questions about the physical as well. That may have been an opportunity for them to put their best foot forward and make an offer he’d actually consider, but reopening the physical discussion didn’t do them any favors either. The Twins last put Correa through a physical in March when they signed him during Spring Training. His injuries this season were related to the hit by pitch he took, and shouldn’t have created cause for concern regarding a malady they were unaware of. It’s not so much that the Twins missed something, but more likely that they evaluated a future differently. Although Minnesota’s training room has been turned over now with Nick Paparesta coming in, they had plenty of eyes on his previous medicals. The Twins ultimately would have seen the same MRI that both San Francisco and New York have concerns over, but rather than extrapolate it as indicative of future issues, assessed current condition and known outcomes while weighing them more heavily. Correa has already lost $35 million from his originally agreed upon deal with the Giants, and more could be lopped off if the Mets need to re-negotiate things. Maybe they go the route of including specific contract language like we have previously seen with J.D. Martinez, or maybe the deal goes belly up altogether. Either way, it sounds like Minnesota shouldn’t be thinking they missed something or that there is more they need to know. If somehow Correa again comes calling, the third time may be the charm. View full article

The Minnesota Twins could really use another impact bat in their lineup. While third base isn't the most obvious fit, there are options on the trade market that could fill that need for some offense. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins officially (again) lost Carlos Correa and one of their most impactful bats to the New York Mets. That still leaves the Twins with a huge void to fill in the middle of their lineup. It will be impossible to replace Correa truly, but there may be a path to replace some of his value by acquiring a few different third basemen that could be available via trade. Rafael Devers , Red Sox Stop me if you have heard this before. The Red Sox have an impact, all-star level player ready to hit free agency, and we aren’t sure if they will keep them in town on a new contract. We have seen the team in Boston dance this dance with both Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts , only to see one traded and the other walk. Should the Twins maybe try and benefit this time around? Rafael Devers has been an excellent hitting third baseman in the middle of Boston’s lineup and is in his last year of arbitration. This past season he hit .295/.358/.521, which was good for a 141 wRC+. Defensively he may not stay at third base long term as his defensive numbers are already looking a bit ugly, but that didn’t prevent him from putting up a 4.9 fWAR in 2022. While the last thing the Twins need is another left-handed bat, Devers is in that top tier where handedness matters little. He isn't as bothered by the platoon splits as he only drops to .272/.315/.424 and a .739 OPS when facing lefties. Devers power does drop but overall, but still continues to hold his own. The sticky part of a trade for Devers is that the acquiring team would want to be assured they could sign him to an extension. Maybe the Twins would be willing to put that Correa money toward the 26-year-old Devers. If so, a package around Jose Miranda could make sense for both sides, especially since the hope is that Miranda would turn into a right-handed hitting version of Devers, but isn’t that quite yet. Anthony Rendon , Los Angeles Angels Those who listen to Gleeman and the Geek will have heard the guys talk about the Twins going after “depressed assets.” Anthony Rendon very well could be the poster child of a depressed asset. Bad enough that the Trade Simulator gives Rendon a -132.3 value. By comparison, Trevor Story comes in at -37.4. Rendon has certainly earned that ranking entering the 4th year of his 7-year, $245 million contract. The past two seasons have seen Rendon’s offensive numbers dip dramatically. The one-time All-Star has only been slightly above replacement level in recent seasons. As his K-rate has gone up and walk-rate down, he only slashed .229/.326/.380 this past season. So why would the Twins want to gamble on an expensive, declining player? The conversation would start and end with the front offices' confidence in being able to bring Rendon back to his earlier career performances. He already has two things going for him versus the rest of the Twins roster: he is right-handed and hits left-handed pitching well. Last season he sported a .873 OPS when facing lefties. A mark that jumps to .900 over his whole career. A Rendon acquisition is an absolute gamble, but with Gio Urshela in the fold, the Angels may be willing to get rid of their third baseman. A move that would also clear the payroll in preparation to try and keep Shohei Ohtani . Eduardo Escobar , New York Mets In case you missed it earlier, the New York Mets just signed a $315 million third baseman. With that move, rumors are circulating that they may be willing to move the veteran infielder and old friend, Eduardo Escobar. Someone that Cody Christie also highlighted when exploring some former Twins the club could bring back. Escobar is the most likely out of this list the Twins could acquire and, unfortunately, the one that moves the needle the least. He would bring in another bat to mix into the lineup against left-handers. Eddie’s numbers against lefties in 2022 were .259/.299/.519 with a .817 OPS. and nine home runs. The tricky thing about Escobar is he is hardly a third baseman at this point in his career. He recorded a -11 DRS and a -7 OAA. So while he could play the position, he may be more of a bat at this point than carry any value as a fielder. Considering how bad the Twins were against left-handed pitching last season, he could still be a valuable addition to the team. View full article

This offseason the Minnesota Twins shocked the baseball world when an early-morning deal was reached with superstar Carlos Correa. The three-year contract features an opt-out, but both sides could be amenable to a longer term situation. What would that look like? Carlos Correa’s current contract is a three-year deal for $105.3 million. The deal is noteworthy for a couple of reasons. First, the opt-out comes after year one, in which Correa could look for another payday on the open market with a different group of shortstop competition. The other level of intrigue comes from the $35.1 annual amount, which checks in $100,000 more than Anthony Rendon’s deal. That $100,000 put him above the other Scott Boras client and made Correa the highest-paid infielder in Major League history. Of course, the expectation has always been that Correa would opt out with Minnesota and look for a bigger payday. He did indicate there was interest in a long-term deal with the Twins though, and the second ACL tear for Royce Lewis could clear the way for a stable need at shortstop. Assuming both sides are interested in finding a workable future, the one-up of this contract may also come into play. Rendon’s deal was signed with the third basemen at the age of 30. He was paid $245 million for seven years. It’s been a colossal disaster in that he’s played just 155 games over his first three seasons with the Angels. Correa will be just 28 years old next season, a notably younger age than that of Rendon. It would hardly be shocking if the desire was for any extension to be something in the neighborhood of 10 years. Minnesota has not previously gone long term with pitchers under this regime, but they have shown an inclination to spend. Getting the Twins to hand out a ten-year deal to Correa seems unlikely from both a term and financial perspective. Knowing that a deal of that size would be something like $350 million probably takes it off the table. If Correa was open to a seven-year pact, however, this front office may find value in paying a superstar at an integral position something like $250 million. If Correa was open to a $35.5 million annual number, he’d be at $248.5 million over the life of the deal. Maybe that’s not enough of a step up from what Rendon got given the two years of age to his credit, but that’s probably a ballpark worth hypothesizing about. No matter what the eventual number winds up being, it’s hard to wrap your mind around the Twins being the team to dole out that cash. On the flip side, this is a player they will have gotten to know for a full season, and has been lauded for his leadership and ability throughout the organization. With no surefire answer at the shortstop position for 2023, the alternative is likely a much lesser stopgap option. This core of Twins talent is exciting and seems to mesh well together. Putting Lewis and Correa on the same side of the infield for the next handful of years is something everyone in Twins Territory could get behind. Like Buxton before him, Correa would be in a place providing Minnesota sole negotiating opportunity. They aren’t going to get the discount afforded them by their other superstar, but this one stays on the field and should be worth every penny as well. Some deadline additions and a postseason run could continue to help Minnesota make its case as a compelling suitor for Correa. So far they've put the right feet forward. The next one will be to present the bag. View full article

There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins greatest need this offseason is pitching. The front office has stated their focus will be on arms defined as “impact” and filling out a rotation that’s virtually empty is a must. With the premiere arms having plenty of suitors, the Twins could turn to what they did best in 2019.Every team in baseball should be salivating at the thought of adding either Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg to their starting rotation. Young aces simply don’t hit the free agent market often, and when they do the costs will be substantial. Minnesota can afford either (and even both), but I’d expect Cole to look at the West Coast or New York, while Strasburg returns to D.C. with on a hefty raise. That doesn’t mean all is lost for the Twins, but how they react is where this narrative begins. Going into 2019 the front office suggested a wait and see approach that was built on the premise of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano establishing their value. The former looks the part of a star (when healthy), and the latter showed he’s one of the best power hitters in the game. Neither of them was a linchpin in the 101-win season though, and Rocco Baldelli got strong performance by utilizing the full sum of his parts. Buxton and Sano can be key cogs, but the winning was as much alongside them as opposed to being because of them. Now with an established infrastructure of developmental talent, a big-league roster capable of competing with anyone, and opportunity as abundant as it may ever be, it’s time to follow in the footsteps of recent World Series winners and begin to capitalize on the window. I’d hardly be shocked if the win total takes a slight step backwards, but the goal is an extended presence into October. Here’s how that happens in 2020: 1. Cron is the odd man out in arbitration deals. After a nagging thumb injury in 2019, Cron should be all systems go in 2020. He was great before the thumb issue flared up, and I certainly have no problem with the Twins offering him an arbitration deal. Unfortunately, this projection includes a roster crunch, so C.J. becomes the lone arbitration-eligible player to not be tendered a new deal. 2. Make Anthony Rendon the big splash paying him $33 million for eight years. Last offseason I liked the idea of Josh Donaldson coming to the Twins. He was a former superstar and could be had at a discount. Going home to Georgia he had a very good bounce-back year. With plenty of money to spend, and the top two pitchers likely off the board, the next superstar opportunity is a better one. Anthony Rendon is an MVP-level talent, has been incredibly consistent, and joins one of the best lineups in baseball. I’m not sure Miguel Sano needs to move across the diamond yet, but there’s no reason this isn’t a good enough opportunity for him to do so. 3. Sign Zack Wheeler to a four-year, $72 million contract. At the top of Minnesota’s impact pitching list should be Zack Wheeler. Hiss secondary numbers are drool-inducing, and he’s already got plenty of velocity for Wes Johnson to work with. Allowing the Twins pitching coach to pull more from the 29-year-old and Baldelli would have a very impressive one-two punch at the top of his rotation. 4. Sign Jake Odorizzi to a three-year, $36 million contract. The Twins smartly handed Odorizzi a qualifying offer. He could take that and return at $17.8 million which would be just fine. It may also ward off some competition for his services, keeping the bidding on a longer-term deal. Two-years doesn’t seem enticing for the former Rays hurler if the alternative is a gaudy one-year pact, so go three and bolster the middle of the group. 5. Trade Eddie Rosario and Jhoan Duran to the Colorado Rockies for Jon Gray. Under team control for two more years, the former third overall pick is where I’m setting my sights in a swap for the Minnesota outfielder. Rosario can probably hit a boatload of bombas in the Rockies, while Gray can be expected to build on a career year in 2019. His FIP has suggested there’s more than the ERA has told us for a few years, and while the walks could be reduced, the strikeout stuff is going to play anywhere. At worst you’ve got a number four starter, and the upside is a guy to contend with Wheeler and Jose Berrios at the top. Duran was the main piece in the Eduardo Escobar deal, and he looked impressive during his first full season in the organization. 6. Sign Alex Gordon to a one-year, $2 million contract. Prioritizing defense is a must for the Twins in 2020. With Eddie Rosario gone, adding another plus-glove into the outfield mix as depth makes a lot of sense. Gordon isn’t the player he once was, but he’s still above average in the field and can play left as often as Marwin Gonzalez is elsewhere. Ideally, I’d like some center field depth, but I’d tell Max Kepler and Jake Cave to be as prepared as possible coming into spring training. Gordon is done with his massive Royals payday, and the $4 million buyout should reduce his 2020 ask as well. 7. Sign Robinson Chirinos to a one-year, $6 million contract. I’d be fine with Jason Castro returning on this same exact deal, if he’s open to it. Chirinos is an excellent backstop with a strong bat, and seemingly an impressive clubhouse presence. He recently wrapped up a season coming just shy of winning a World Series and could help push Minnesota toward that same exact goal. 8. Sign Drew Pomeranz and Sergio Romo to one-year deals for $3.5 and $3 million. The former gives Minnesota a second lefty option in the pen, and his former starting experience should allow for some length as well. A reunion with Romo would work in the clubhouse, and his slider is still as devastating as ever. Neither represent earth-shattering pen arms, but this is the easiest avenue toward improvement. Summary The most prolific power offense in the history of baseball returns in 2020, but with an added boost. Eddie Rosario ends up being dangled to acquire pitching but getting the best position player on the market makes up for that and then some. Rendon’s bat plays, and his glove may be even more important. I like Marwin in the outfield more than on the dirt, and Alex Gordon provides a defense-first bench option that the Twins haven’t had. Yes, the outfield prospects are close, but there’s still a clear path to playing time, and the Opening Day roster starts in a very good place. Download attachment: Lineup.PNG From a pitching perspective it’s a season of change. Odorizzi is back with Berrios, but the impact is felt from outside the organization. Wheeler represents a second bullet for Minnesota to mold into an ace, and he can bolster the top of the staff even if he doesn’t get there. Gray should benefit from leaving the Rockies, and a better organization can most certainly take his stuff up another level. I struggled with the idea of giving Brusdar Graterol a rotation spot out of the gate. He has never pitched more than 102 innings in a season, is coming off just 61 in 2019, and is still just 21-years-old. Ideally, he starts at Triple-A and settles back into starting. That said, I like his arm a good deal better than any fringe fifth starter, and if Minnesota deems that he beats out the likes of Lewis Thorpe then take off the training wheels. Download attachment: Rotation.PNG If there’s a weak spot to this roster it’s the same area 2019 started out with. The relief corps is composed of internally developed arms, which is only a strength if regression is to be denied. Rogers, May, Duffey, and Littell all return as near certainties. Stashak earned himself an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster, and Devin Smeltzer could be a nice long man in relief. Free agents, one returning, complete the group and Pomeranz looks to have some serious upside. Should the Twins find themselves cycling through arms too often out of the pen, or if there’s a lack of production, relief arms at the deadline are among the most easily acquirable commodities. Download attachment: Bullpen.PNG When the dust settles this puts the Opening Day payroll at $143.4 million. That’s almost a $30 million jump from 2019, and a step up from the previous high-water mark in 2018 as well. This is the time to build, and this plan leaves the Twins with opportunity to add more in 2021 and puts forth a very strong group to defend their AL Central Division title. ~~~ What would your blueprint look like for the Twins this winter? Download your copy of the Offseason Handbook and use it to construct a champion. Share your vision for discussion in our Create a Blueprint forum thread. Meanwhile, stay tuned to TD as our writers will be formulating offseason plans from different perspectives all week long. Click here to view the article

Today officially marks the beginning of free agency for the 2020 Major League Baseball season. The Minnesota Twins have some serious work to do with four-fifths of their starting rotation up for grabs, and a 100-win season to replicate. Rocco Baldelli will be angling for a second straight AL Central Division title, and the goal for the foreseeable future in Twins Territory will be Postseason berths. While working through a full blueprint to outline a 25-man roster for the Twins I found myself getting hung up on a few key areas. I think we’re going to see a handful of moves that may come as a surprise, and rather than trying to pinpoint each, a better plan of action seemed to come with a top down view. While remaining somewhat specific, here’s how I’d handle things going into 2020: Start with the Rotation: Jose Berrios is locked in. I’d try to get him extended on a long-term deal again. Minnesota has approached his camp previously, but talks have not moved forward. He’s a few steps from a Cy Young arm, and at that point, he won’t have interest in avoiding the open market. Even if the Twins offer Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg significantly over market rate, I’d imagine both say no. Falvey should be all in on both arms, but the lure of a bigger market or home on the west coast probably proves too strong. This is where you pivot. Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher available in the Twins wheelhouse, and he’s a very good one. Make him a priority and get that done as soon as possible. Two 2019 options should also be leveraged as possible returnees. Minnesota should offer both Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda a qualifying offer. The former could turn that into a two or three year deal while the later could then be had at roughly $13 million accounting for his remaining suspension. The final rotation spot would then be filled out by a trade. There’s too much firepower on the Twins farm not to execute something, and Eddie Rosario represents an expendable big-league asset. Utilize the depth to go and get someone like Jon Gray, Joe Musgrove, or Matt Boyd. Aiming even higher to a proven commodity as Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson suggested might be interesting as well. Add to the Lineup: It’s fair to assume that regression is going to hit for the 2020 Twins. What’s also worth noting is that any changes to the baseball will have a widespread impact. Minnesota hit bombas because of a strong plate approach, and that will play regardless of what composition the baseball encompasses. That being said, a great deterrent to a step backwards offensively is adding more offense. The Twins have a boatload, something like $70 million, to spend this offseason. With Wheeler being the likely high-water mark on the mound, there’s going to be plenty to go around. Instead of overpaying similar candidates on the bump, choose the guy(s) that makes the most financial sense add allocate the funds towards high impact help elsewhere. I’ve talked myself into this, look at Anthony Rendon. The Twins could bring back C.J. Cron, and barring better wrist health, he should see a nice boost. They could also move Miguel Sano across the diamond and angle for a substantial upgrade at the hot corner with some intriguing options. Rendon is an MVP-type superstar and has plenty of good years ahead of him. I’m not as keen on 34-year-old Josh Donaldson as I was last year, because he’ll now want a multi-year deal, but that’s not a bad option either. If the Cubs are truly inclined to move Kris Bryant, and there’s a belief in his health, I’d absolutely explore that scenario as well. At the end of the day it comes down to this; if you can’t spend the money on pitching, you need to spend it elsewhere and aiming high is far better than adding quantity. Rounding out the offense would include an additional outfielder and a catcher. Whether or not Eddie Rosario is traded a guy that could be had on a one-year deal makes sense. I like the idea of Corey Dickerson as a corner outfielder with on-base skills and some pop. It doesn’t hurt that he’s also a very strong defender, which is a facet of the game Minnesota needs to improve on. Cameron Maybin is also somewhat intriguing with the ability to play some centerfield. Behind the plate you operate with Mitch Garver as the starter. He needs to play more often than he did in 2019, but there could be a decent amount of truth to him being at his best with significant rest. Pairing him with a nice defender that can also hit makes sense and going the route of former Houston Astro Robinson Chirinos is to my liking. He’s got good on base skills, hits better than a traditional catcher, and isn’t a hack behind the plate. Shore up the Bullpen: Coming out of the winter and into Spring Training there was nothing more problematic than Minnesota’s bullpen. It looked the part of a dumpster fire that was going to struggle getting anyone out. Then the development of some internal arms took place and Baldelli’s group was one of the best in baseball down the stretch. Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May have all worked their way into a circle of trust. Wes Johnson will still need three or four other arms to complete the group, however. Rather than pushing Lewis Thorpe or Brusdar Graterol to the pen full time, bringing in some hired guns is the way to go. Sergio Romo should be welcomed back, but there’s no reason to pigeonhole that move either. Drew Pomeranz could be a nice second lefty, and any number of arms make sense to round out the group. Will Smith is the cream of the crop, but Will Harris and Jake Diekman types have purpose as well. To summarize how I’d plan I’ll say this: For the first time in a while, spend. The window is open, you know what you have, and the prospect depth is coming close to maturation. Whether you can land the big fish on the mound or not is always going to be tough with plenty of suitors and a less-than-ideal-destination, but those resources need to go elsewhere then. Minnesota should clear $140 million in payroll this winter, and $150 million is far from unrealistic. Do as much as you can on the mound, and then look to make the additional impact throughout the roster. Minnesota is no longer in a wait and see mode. The capability of youth has been understood, the veterans have provided plenty of production, and the circumstances are now on your side. There’s been complaints for years that have been somewhat misguided without that trifecta being a reality. In 2020, there’s nothing holding the organization back but itself, and it’s time to remove that barrier. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz