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No team can have a perfect roster heading into the season. For the Twins, there are weak spots on the roster, but there is hope for some of those positions. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7 Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million. Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1 Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9 FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Who's on first? This year, the question shapes up as more of an existential dilemma for the Twins than comedic riff. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff Likely Backup: Joey Gallo Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato THE GOOD In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup. Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently. We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing. Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence. Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first. Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline. Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects. THE BAD As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages. Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons. Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff. It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong. The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year. Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer. Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year. THE BOTTOM LINE Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. "We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.) Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash. The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect. View full article

Injuries were one of the main reasons the Twins couldn't hang on to the 2022 AL Central title. Entering this spring, the Twins hoped to enter the season with a healthy roster, but injuries are starting to mount. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Every team will deal with injuries during the 2023 season, and that's one of the reasons the Twins added depth at nearly every position this winter. Here are the known injuries this spring and how each will impact the Opening Day roster. Jose Miranda: Right Shoulder Soreness Miranda planned to join Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, but a shoulder injury has forced him to withdraw his name. He was the talk of TwinsFest after spending the off-season getting in better shape to handle the rigors of a 162-game season. Last season, he hit .268/.325/.426 (.751) with 25 doubles and 15 home runs, but he tired down the stretch. The Twins are handing him the reins at third base, but his shoulder has limited him to designated hitter duties in recent games. He hit two home runs in a game over the weekend, so his hitting clearly isn't impacted by the soreness. Roster Impact: Miranda can switch to first base and DH if Alex Kirilloff isn't ready for Opening Day. The Twins have multiple third-base options, including Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, or Willi Castro. Nick Gordon: Mild-to-Moderate High Ankle Sprain High ankle sprains can impact players differently, but initial reports are that Gordon avoided a more severe injury. He was in a walking boot following Friday's game and will be off his foot to start the week. Gordon is looking to build off a breakout 2022 season where he was named the Twins Daily Most Improved Player. In 136 games, he hit .272/.316/.427 (.743) with 41 extra-base hits and a 113 OPS+. Roster Impact: Gordon was going to get time as designated hitter when the club was facing right-handed starters. He's also the backup at multiple outfield positions. If he's not ready to start the year, another left-handed bat like Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner might make the roster. Byron Buxton: Right Knee Surgery Buxton has yet to appear in a spring training game after having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee at the beginning of October. The Twins are taking it slow with Buxton while he ramps up for the season. Big league regulars see limited action in early spring training games, and that's one reason to hold Buxton out of these contests. He can get more focused work in the batting cages and on the back fields. Minnesota wants Buxton to play more than 100 games this season, which might mean he sees limited in-game action throughout the spring. Roster Impact: The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide depth in center field behind Buxton. In recent seasons, Taylor has been a starter for the Royals, and he can assume that role if/when Buxton is hurt. Jorge Polanco: Left Knee Tendinitis Polanco was placed on the IL for the first time in his career last season, but that doesn't mean injuries haven't impacted him in the past. He's a player that has dealt with ankle and knee injuries for multiple seasons. Like Buxton, Polanco is taking things slowly at the start of spring training with more time in the training room. In 2022, he hit .235/.346/.405 (.751) with a 117 OPS+ and 32 extra-base hits. Roster Impact: Farmer or Solano can share time at second base if Polanco misses time. Two of the organization's top prospects, Brooks Lee and Eduoard Julien, have been praised this spring. Either player could be an option if Polanco has to miss significant time. Alex Kirilloff: Wrist Surgery According to reports, Kirilloff continues to make progress from the wrist surgery that ended his 2022 season. It was the second consecutive season he missed time with a wrist injury. The Twins are taking it slow with him, and he likely will play in spring training games later in March. He is taking live batting practice with no pain in his wrist, which is a good sign from where he has been the last two years. Kirilloff was considered the team's top prospect before his debut, so hopes remain high for his future. Roster Impact: He's on track to be the team's first baseman or designated hitter to start the year. Solano, Miranda, Farmer, and Joey Gallo will get time at first base when Kirilloff isn't available. Trevor Larnach: Lower Body Injury Larnach has been dealing with a lower-body injury, but the Twins expect him to play in games this week, including defensive duties in the outfield. In 2022, Larnach posted a 104 OPS+ but was limited to 51 big-league games because of a core muscle surgery. Larnach, a former first-round pick, was ranked as one of the team’s top prospects, and he’s shown signs of his powerful bat. The Twins hope he can put his injury concerns behind him and slide into the middle of the line-up. Roster Impact: Solano’s addition initially pushed Larnach out of the team’s Opening Day roster. With the other injuries on this list, Larnach can break camp on the 26-man roster if he is healthy. Gilberto Celestino: Left Thumb Surgery Celestino ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, which has six to eight weeks of recovery. Injuries forced the Twins to use Celestino in 122 games last season. In his age-23 season, he hit .238/.313/.302 (.615) with a 80 OPS+ and 15 extra-base hits. He has seen limited action at Triple-A, and this season was his opportunity to establish himself at that level. It is an important season for him to reestablish his long-term value to the Twins, but now that's pushed back a few months. Roster Impact: Celestino was scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he's had plenty of big-league experience over the last two seasons. Minnesota can move Celestino to the 60-day IL if they need the roster spot for a waiver claim, a signing, or a non-roster invitee. Jordan Balazovic: Broken Jaw The Twins made a statement when Balazovic became the first (and only) player in the team's first round of cuts. He broke his jaw in an incident at a bar in downtown Fort Myers. Balazovic has significantly fallen over the last calendar year as he entered 2022 as one of baseball's top-100 prospects. Last season, he arrived at spring training with a left knee injury and could never fully recover. In 23 appearances (72 2/3 innings), he posted a 7.68 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP. He ended the season on a high note, but now he will have to wait to build off that performance. Roster Impact: Balazovic wasn't in the running for the Opening Day roster, but he is entering a pivotal season in his professional career. He saw multiple starters pass him on the way to the big leagues last season, and he didn't need another setback. Austin Martin: UCL Sprain Martin has a UCL sprain in his right elbow, which means the team will shut him down from throwing and hitting. Sometimes this injury results in Tommy John surgery, which happened in recent years with players like Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien. Martin had a redeeming September and showcased those improvements in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a .936 OPS. He was having a solid start to his spring, and the team expected him to impact the big-league roster at some point in 2023. Roster Impact: Martin was likely scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he was an injury or two away from making his debut. Now he will have to wait and see if rest and rehab can help him avoid going under the knife. Ronny Henriquez: Right Posterior Elbow Soreness Henriquez made his big-league debut last season after the Twins acquired him as part of the Mitch Garver trade. He made 24 appearances (95 1/3 innings) at Triple-A with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. In St. Paul, Henriquez was five years younger than the average age of the competition so some struggles can be expected against older hitters. The Saints rotation is set up to be loaded with top prospects, so finding him innings in a starting role might be challenging. Roster Impact: Henriquez had an outside chance to make the team as a reliever, but the team may want him to continue to start. He’s only made 16 appearances at Double-A, so the team could send him to that level to start games. Which injuries will impact the Twins the most in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Here’s the thing about being a sports reporter: you’re looking for some drama. So spring training is a trap. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.) So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like. (Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.) C Vazquez SP Gray 1B Kirilloff SP P Lopez 2B Polanco SP Mahle 3B Miranda SP Maeda SS Correa SP Ryan LF Gallo CF Buxton CL Duran RF Kepler RP J Lopez DH Larnach RP Jax RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers RP Pagan Bench OF Taylor RP Alcala Bench IF Farmer RP Moran Bench Gordon RP Megill Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact. Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players. When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early. Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot. Long relief appears to be a priority. It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter. Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game. This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options. And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp. So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster. So here’s the new chart. C Vazquez SP Gray 1B Kirilloff SP P Lopez 2B Polanco SP Mahle 3B Miranda SP Maeda SS Correa SP Ryan LF Gallo CF Buxton CL Duran RF Kepler RP J Lopez DH Solano RP Jax RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers RP Pagan/Moran Bench OF Taylor RP Moran/Alcala Bench IF Farmer RP Alcala/Megill Bench Gordon LR Sands/Headrick We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward. View full article

A little over three weeks until Opening Day and the infield remains clouded with uncertainty. The projected first baseman hasn't played yet. The third baseman can't throw. The super utility player went down with an injury. One particular player may be the beneficiary. View full video

With a new season soon to get underway, the Minnesota Twins arguably have a new top prospect in the system for the fourth time in as many springs. Looking back through top emerging talents of years past – even while limiting our sample to the past decade – serves as a powerful reminder of the folly in casting confident outlooks for even the most 'sure thing' prospects. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, Jonathan Dyer, Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports MLB prospect rankings were tough to find back in the early 1980s. Coverage of the minor leagues was not exactly prominent before the internet's takeover. However, Baseball America does have archives of its rankings dating back to that time, which is pretty fun. You may be unsurprised to learn that in 1984, ahead of his major-league arrival, Kirby Puckett ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Twins. It was well earned. Drafted third overall in '82, he was an immediate sensation, batting .382 in his pro debut and reaching the majors for good within two years. Little did anyone know back then, but Puckett would go on to epitomize the thrilling highs and tragic lows that can come with a life in pro baseball – the variance involved in even a legendary Hall of Fame career. He was a shining star of the game for 10 years, and a World Series hero, before it all came crashing down in sudden and devastating fashion. "Don't take it for granted,'' Puckett reportedly told his teammates in 1996, after informing them of his retirement due to an irreversible eye condition. "Tomorrow is not promised to any of us, so enjoy yourself.'' His post-playing life became an even sadder story, but I'm not looking to dwell on that. Instead, I want to reflect on his parting sentiments toward the game, his fellow players, and his fans. Puckett was fortunate (as were we) that he was able to achieve the iconic heights he did. The same can be said for subsequent top prospects and MVPs like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. These players had the chance to establish their enduring legacies, even if all three primes were cut short by freak injuries beyond their control. In recent years, we've seen that even a truncated run of notoriety like theirs is by no means assured for the brightest and most touted talents to come through the franchise. A lookback through the successive No. 1-ranked prospects in the organization over the past 10 years, according Twins Daily's lists, reminds us that even for the most promising, nothing is ever promised. Hopefully it also provides a bit of valuable perspective, with a nod to Kirby's advice about enjoying today and not worrying about tomorrow. Twins Daily #1 Prospects Over the Years Byron Buxton: 2013-16 Thirty years after Puck, Buck came along and followed right in his footsteps: high school star center fielder turned top-three draft pick turned immediate pro success. Buxton quickly emerged as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and reached the majors by age 21. As we know, it's been anything but a storybook journey for him since then. The tools and talents that earned Buxton such prospect praise have been fully on display in between endless and excruciating bouts with injury. He enters this year surrounded by an especially high degree of uncertainty as he looks to move past a recurring knee issue some fear to be chronic. While much of his tale thankfully remains to be written, Buxton's turbulent journey to this point perfectly summarizes the theme of this list: everything he can control has gone right, and everything he can't, has not. Fernando Romero: 2017 Once Buxton had officially graduated to major-league status, a void opened in his entrenched perch atop Twins top prospect rankings. Different outlets went different directions, breaking with the firm consensus that ruled Buxton's reign, but TD's panelists chose Fernando Romero. The big right-hander had seemingly overcome his own gauntlet of injuries to re-emerge as a fireballing ace prototype with velocity, spin, command, and mound presence. Of course, this optimistic forecast never came close to materializing, and in his case, we can't chalk it up as much more than an age-old example of the encouraging young arm plateauing and fizzling out at the highest level. Romero struggled over 26 appearances with the Twins between 2018-19, and hasn't been back to the majors since. He spent the past two seasons playing in Japan, with mediocre numbers. Royce Lewis: 2018-20 When you get selected at the very top of the draft and immediately start performing in the minors, it's a natural path to the No. 1 prospect spot, which is why Buxton held it down for four straight years, and why Lewis opened up his own three-year reign shortly thereafter. Then, Lewis began his own battle with uncontrollable adversity. The shortstop was creeping toward MLB-readiness in 2020 when the COVID pandemic wiped out an entire minor-league season. During the following winter, he tore his ACL slipping on ice, requiring surgery that erased his 2021 season. Shortly after returning to the field following a lengthy rehab, he re-tore the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. He's again on the rehab track and aiming to return midseason, at which point he'll have played 46 official games in the past three-and-a-half years. Alex Kirilloff: 2021 No minor-league baseball was played during the 2020 season, so there wasn't much movement among returning players on our list the following year. We did, however, elevate Kirilloff to No. 1 on the basis of a loud showing at the team's St. Paul training site that culminated with an MLB debut in the playoffs. He'd already gone through his own cruel rite of passage as a Twins top prospect, losing a season of development in the minors to Tommy John surgery, but Kirilllof had seemingly come out on the other side. He got the official call-up in 2021 and looked like he was in the majors to stay before a wrist injury surfaced and sent his ascendant career spinning off the rails. Almost two years later, he's still trying to get it back on track, following a second surgery on the same wrist. Early signs are good, but Derek Falvey painted a stark picture of finality regarding the success (or non-success) of this last-ditch effort a salvage a career threatening to grind to a halt almost before it starts. "He’s never coming in at the end of the day, walking into that room and going, ‘Hey, I’ve got some soreness,’ " Falvey told reporters. “At this point, that’s all we can do because as you all know, this is the procedure. There’s not another one. This needs to work." Austin Martin: 2022 The headliner of 2021's José Berríos trade, Martin went straight to Double-A after being drafted and led the league in on-base percentage while showing stellar speed, contact skills, and strike zone control. With Kirilloff graduating and Lewis coming off two straight missed seasons, Martin overtook the top spot on our list. He followed up with an underwhelming encore at the same level, tarnishing his prospect luster, but the 23-year-old should not be discounted as a factor going forward. The same standout traits mentioned above were still intact even as his modest power evaporated, and talent is talent. Like Romero, Martin's drop-off is seemingly a more standard story of stalling player development than catastrophic bad fortune, but unlike Romero, he still has plenty of time to reverse course and show this was nothing more than a bump in the road. At the very least, Martin seems destined to pan out as a useful big-leaguer player, if not a star, and that's a (generally common) middle-of-the-road outcome that's been rare in these ranks. Brooks Lee: 2023 Alas, we arrive at The New Guy. Lee joined the organization as the No. 8 overall pick last summer, and he followed the tried-and-true path of Buxton, Lewis, and Martin before him: from top draft pick to immediate producer to No. 1 Twins prospect. As we've seen, the paths can diverge greatly from this initial juncture. By no means am I drawing out this pattern to place a hex on Lee (though one could argue, based on ample evidence, that he was cosmically hexed from the moment he was drafted by the Twins in the first round). I do think it sheds important context on the punishing nature of this profession, the lack of assurances for any player, and the importance of enjoying things in the moment. Things like Lee experiencing first major-league camp, or Lewis sprinting and smiling on the sidelines as he cheerily battles to overcome another setback. Each time Kirilloff swings and cracks a line drive with no ensuing wince, or Buxton springs up after a spectacular diving catch, it's something to appreciate because we've all seen how quickly and randomly it can all go away. People who obsess over following prospects, like myself, are apt to get overly caught up in projecting the future, and fixating on ceilings, and taking for granted that greatness will find a way. Sometimes, it doesn't. And even when it does, the moment can be fleeting. In fact, most often it is. No one knows what tomorrow will hold. And in large part, that's out of our hands. I think this is an important mindset for Twins fans to carry into a season that will inevitably be fraught with looming health concerns and triggering setbacks. My recommendation (and one I'll aspire to live by): Don't give into doomsday-ism, just enjoy the moment. Past does not dictate present or future. The Twins as a team will be setting out prove that following back-to-back disappointing seasons, and many of their former chart-topping prospects will be looking to support that cause by doing the same. View full article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins adding Donovan Solano to the infield mix and what it could mean for Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, plus updates on Jordan Balazovic, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Josh Winder. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article

Earlier this week the Minnesota Twins completed their first full squad workout. On Tuesday, Donovan Solano became a part of that full squad. Now, the club must make sense of what the 26-man roster looks like. Image courtesy of David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports UPDATE: Jon Heyman has reported the terms of Solano's deal with Minnesota. Ken Rosenthal reported that the Minnesota Twins have come to an agreement with Donovan Solanco on a Major League deal. The particulars have not yet been disclosed, but it should be assumed he’ll make the 26-man roster following an addition to the 40-man. Currently the Twins 40-man roster is full, however, players can be put on the 60-day injured list at this point and that would free a spot. Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are logical options. Looking at Solano, he brings an infield profile to Minnesota. Last season with the Cincinnati Reds, Solano played third, second, and first base. Minnesota would seem to be set in those areas starting Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco, and Alex Kirilloff. It is possible that Solano could provide insurance at first base, although Joey Gallo represents that as well. Polanco missed significant time with knee tendinitis last year, and that could be part of the equation as well. This offseason, the Twins probably needed to be in the market for a right-handed outfield bat. Solanco doesn’t play the outfield, and even pushing Kyle Farmer there would be a weird fit given his four total Major League innings in the grass. Solano did boast a .309/.380/.568 slash line against southpaws last year. Last year the Twins rotated through a plethora of designated hitter options. That could again be the way to go this year as Byron Buxton, Polanco, and plenty of others may need time off their feet. Nick Gordon, while he will play multiple positions this spring, is primarily an outfielder. Solano brings a level of redundancy with Farmer, but given that Minnesota acquired him as a baseline shortstop option, regular at bats are something he probably expected. The deal is pending a physical, and until we see what the financials are, it's hard to understand what level of significance this move takes on. Solano made $4.5 million with the Reds last year but his OPS+ was below league average. It would make sense for the number to check in somewhere around half of that in Minnesota. It's not a bad thing to add this type of depth, and the ability to hit left-handed pitching is something the roster could use more of. It still stands to reason that there is more to come with this move. Solano may have been a pivot from Yuli Gurriel for the Twins, but his addition to the roster probably pushes outfielder Trevor Larnach down to Triple-A on Opening Day. That's a disappointing reality given he'll be 26-years-old on Sunday and has yet to establish himself in the majors. No injury to Polanco or Kirilloff has been made public, but it has also been notable that the Twins are slow-playing the latter. For now, the Twins have made an addition that certainly changes the roster construction for Rocco Baldelli. This is yet another reminder that the Twins front office never sees the offseason as over until Opening Day commences. Last season we saw Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker flipped for Emilio Pagan and Paddack. Maybe another bullpen addition is in the cards, and there is no telling as to whether a team meets the Kepler ask or not. For now, there is more talent in Fort Myers than there was at the beginning of the week and Minnesota continues to spend money. Neither of those things are a negative. View full article

FORT MYERS - Wasn't the bench already full. Um, yeah, so that's bad news for some other guys. John Bonnes reports from The Fort. solano-signing-landscape.mp4 View full article

Injuries are unfortunately the number one storyline for the 2023 Twins coming off a promising campaign that was sabotaged by health woes. Now that spring training is underway and players are reporting, to camp here's where things stand with key players on the roster whose uncertainties weigh most heavily on the team's outlook this season. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports I'll be honest, it sucks to write articles like these. When analyzing the impact players are likely to have, I much prefer to talk about guys with something to prove performance-wise, because it feels more actionable and controllable. Alas, it's impossible to talk about this year's team without addressing all of the cascading injury concerns that carry over from a 2022 campaign besieged by heath issues. One of the reasons we've all been so adamantly looking forward to the start of spring training is because we actually get some insight into these players' statuses, as opposed to endless speculating and hoping. Granted, the insights we're gaining at this very early stage of camp, with players still arriving and settling in, are very limited in their significance. But they're something. And for what it's worth, there's been a considerable amount of reporting and updates around these topics because – like we said – everyone understands the magnitude of importance. Here's what we we've learned so far about several pivotal players with injury concerns. Alex Kirilloff Situation: Kirilloff's rookie season in 2021 was cut short by a wrist injury that required surgery, and his 2022 season was again cut short by issues in the same wrist, requiring a more invasive and serious surgery. We start with Kirilloff because he is, in my opinion, the single most impactful health question mark for the Twins this year. The variance of outcomes here is wild: Either the second surgery doesn't take and Kirilloff is forever doomed to be a mere figment of his true potential, or he finally gains comfort at the plate and blossoms into the MVP-caliber hitter we've all envisioned. We're not going to be able to draw any kind of substantive conclusions until Kirilloff actually starts getting some game action and taking competitive swings – even then, we might not know a ton, since he seemed to feel OK around this time last year – but for now, the news is positive. Rocco Baldelli told reporters there was "no setback, no concern" attached to the 25-year-old at this point and he's "probably in as good of a spot as they've seen him coming into camp." Even if things are going smoothly, I would expect the Twins to take things very slowly with Kirilloff, holding him out of exhibition contests until there's full confidence he's in a good place. It wouldn't shock me if he was held back from the MLB roster at the start of the season, even without setbacks, to be totally honest. The club seems committed to a very cautious approach in these situations, as we'll see. Trevor Larnach Situation: Larnach's second season in the majors showed the similar promise he showed in his first season, but also ended in injury like his first season. A core muscle strain suffered in late-June required surgery, recovery was slower than anticipated, and then a rehab assignment led to a cascading core injury that ended his season. Larnach is also looking to establish himself, and also penciled into a big role for the Twins this year. He spent the offseason rehabbing a core injury with input from several doctors and trainers, and reports that he is at 100%, and hasn't even needed to see the trainer this year so far. In addition, the Twins also report him entering camp without any limitations. Tyler Mahle Situation: Mahle was plagued by ambiguous shoulder issues throughout the 2022 campaign – described at various junctures as soreness, weakness, and fatigue – and they shut him down shortly after he was acquired by Minnesota at the deadline. The unexplained nature of Mahle's 2022 shoulder malady is what makes it so hard to feel confident in a clean rebound. Each time the righty took the mound with diminished velocity and results, he expressed minimal concern. And yet, he threw only two innings after exiting his third Twins start early on August 17th, ending the season on IL. So far this spring, the vibe around Mahle is very similar: no problems, all systems go. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the 28-year-old felt good enough at season's end to put in work at Driveline, an esteemed performance training center for pitchers. Much like with Kirilloff, the proof will very much be in the pudding for Mahle. Can he get out on the mound and throw in the mid-90s? Can he sustain that over increasingly long starts this spring? We'll see. But for now, all signs are positive, and customarily chill. Kenta Maeda Situation: Maeda missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2021, and is now coming back from all the missed time at age 35, with a baseline of only 175 total innings thrown since 2019. Maeda's inability to make it back onto the mound late last season was largely treated as a formality – the team faded from contention, why bother – but his early comments in camp suggest that he still wasn't feeling ready, one year removed from the surgery. The 2020 Cy Young runner-up reportedly threw 40 pitches in the bullpen on Thursday, and indicated that he already felt much better compared to where he was last September. Topping out at 89 MPH is not a bad sign for Maeda, especially this early in the process. He's less reliant on velocity than Mahle, and in this case the real questions are around stamina and command. We'll have to see how the spring progresses to get a good read on those factors. Royce Lewis Situation: Lewis missed the entire 2021 season after suffering an offseason ACL tear, then made a brief but electric return to the field last year before re-tearing the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. It was a beautiful sight. Eight months removed from undergoing his second reconstructive right knee surgery (with a twist), reporters caught video of Lewis opening up with a relatively high-intensity sprint on the grassy side fields of Lee County Sports Complex. Lewis still has a long way to go before he's in game shape, and his spring training activity will likely be limited to these kinds of on-the-side rehab drills, but the fact that's running comfortably at this stage is very encouraging. The estimated timeline for Lewis to return to the majors is "late June or July," but we'll see if a productive spring revises it on the shorter side. Chris Paddack Situation: He looked good in a handful of starts after being acquired from San Diego just before the 2022 season, but tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in mid-May. Paddack raised some eyebrows when he told reporters late last season his goal was to return to the mound in August of this year, establishing a notably longer rehab window than the 9-12 months now considered customary for TJ. Of course, undergoing the operation for a second time already at age 26 casts recovery in a very different light, and in Paddack's case there seems to a special emphasis on taking things slow and steady. "Because this is his second elbow surgery, Paddack is taking a conservative approach and performing each step in his rehab three months later than normal at the advice of Dr. Keith Meister," wrote Hayes for The Athletic. Indeed, Paddack shared with the beat reporters that with a second surgery, the timetable is generally moved back three months from the first Tommy John surgery. In the article, Paddack's quotes gave the impression that making it back at all this year is a stretch goal more than anything. “We made that clear at the beginning of this whole thing is like, ‘Hey, don’t tell me I’m not pitching,’ because I want to have some drive,” he said. “I want to have something to look forward to and then if September rolls around and we’re not ready to go, then we can address that situation when it comes.” You wonder if the Twins players, coaches, and trainers have basically committed to setting unambitious expectations after a year where every timeline seemed to drag past initial estimates, leading to criticisms being leveled at all parties involved. Wouldn't be refreshing to have a few players actually beat their estimated return timelines for a change? Jorge Alcalá Situation: The hard-throwing righty made two April appearances for the Twins last year before being shut down due to elbow discomfort. The issue was initially deemed minor, but setbacks in recovery led to arthroscopic debridement surgery in August. He's been billed as fully healthy coming into spring training and was seen throwing early bullpens with no apparent inhibitions. I'll be curious to see those in-game velocity readings. However, Falvey put Alcala into the category of "starting camp with limitations" meaning they'll be careful in bringing him along slowly. Randy Dobnak Situation: Dobnak's Cinderella Story was disrupted by multiple pulley ligament tears in his middle right finger, preventing him from throwing effectively or without pain over the past two seasons. Since signing a five-year contract extension ahead of 2021, he's thrown 50 MLB innings with a 7.64 ERA, and is now off the 40-man roster. Once viewed as a heartwarming success story, Dobnak has fallen off the radar due to his relentless struggles with a recurring finger injury that wreaks havoc on his ability to execute the trademark slider/sinker combo. He's no more than an afterthought in the Twins pitching plans at this point, but one that's easy to root for. Phil MIller had a great profile on Dobnak in the Star Tribune, relaying that "his finger, though not as flexible or strong as it once was, has been pain-free all winter." The caveat there looms large, given that Dobnak was a fringy overachieving talent to begin with, but he's proven doubters wrong plenty of times before. "I think we're way over the hump now," Dobnak said. "I've been slinging it fine." Jorge Polanco Situation: Polanco went on the injured list in late August, and – despite repeated indications that his knee issue was not severe and his return was near – he never made it back before the end of the season. Rocco Baldelli was conspicuously reserved when asked to share where things stand with the second baseman. "He'll be on a slightly different schedule," Baldelli said. "We'll slowly work him back into all facets of the game ... I think he's going to end up getting a lot at-bats on the back field. I think we're going to keep it controlled for a little while until we cut him loose in these games." On the other hand, Polanco met with reporters Saturday and said that there is no pain any more in his knee. However, he also admitted that the rehab work this offseason was extensive, that the recovery took more time than he hoped, and that he still needs to be conscious of it both on and off the field to make sure he takes care of it. It's likely that the next big step for him will be getting into a spring training game. That will indicate that they trust it enough for him to be full go for defensively. Byron Buxton Situation: Buxton was once again plagued by multiple injuries in 2022, costing him almost half the season, and the most significant was a persistent knee issue that required surgery after the season. He's the central storyline heading into this season and will be a primary player to follow in coming weeks. Unfortunately, we have the least information so far on Buxton, who arrived in camp on Friday and is just beginning to ramp up this weekend. Falvey address Buxton's condition, saying "There's nothing he's coming in with that's an issue" but also saying it will be a slow ramp up, similar to Polanco. It will be interesting to see how he's feeling and how he's moving around as the action picks up. Additionally, how will he be managed? The Twins walk a fine line between ensuring he's fully game-ready by Opening Day, while also limiting his exposure enough to minimize early wear and injury risk. John Bonnes is in Fort Myers following closely (and I'll be making the trek down there in a week to join him) so stay tuned as we track all of these crucial spring storylines. View full article

Injuries were the biggest storyline of the 2022 season for the Twins. With spring training beginning, here are the injuries to monitor as the team prepares for the 2023 campaign. Image courtesy of Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports The Twins were one of the most injured teams throughout the 2022 season. Minnesota overcame these injuries during most of the season to be at the top of the AL Central. Unfortunately, the club ran out of gas (and players) in the second half. Will the injury bug hit the Twins again in 2023? Let’s review the team’s injuries from last season and how they will impact spring training. Pitchers Jorge Alcala: Alcala landed on the injured list five days into the 2022 season with elbow inflammation. He tried to return but suffered a setback in June. In August, the Twins announced he underwent arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. Minnesota expected him to be a vital bullpen arm in 2022, so it will be interesting to see what role he can fill in 2023. He’s expected to be ready to start the season. Sonny Gray: Gray had three stints on the injured list last season, including ending the year on the shelf. He missed time in April with a hamstring injury and a pectoral strain in June. His season ended on the IL with a hamstring strain. Minnesota was out of contention, so the team had no reason to rush him back. Gray has failed to pitch more than 150 innings in all but two seasons since 2016 due to injuries. Kenta Maeda: Maeda missed the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. There was some hope he would be able to pitch in the season’s final weeks, but the Twins fell out of contention, and there was no reason to rush him back. Maeda is entering the final year of his contract, so he has a lot to prove on the mound this season. Can teams rely on him to be a starting pitcher moving forward, or is he headed to a bullpen role? Tyler Mahle: Mahle’s Twins tenure has been overshadowed by injuries. He was limited to four appearances after being acquired by the Twins. Before the trade, Mahle missed 21 days with a right shoulder strain. He came back and made two starts before being moved to the Twins. Minnesota reported that there was no structural damage to the shoulder, and the Twins worked with him on an off-season shoulder regimen. He has a chance to be the team's top pitcher if he can move past his shoulder concerns. Bailey Ober: Ober was limited to 11 appearances in 2022 and didn’t make an appearance between June 1 and September 16 because of a groin strain. Throughout his professional career, he hasn’t pitched more than the 108 1/3 innings he threw in 2021. He reached that number in 2021 between the Twins and Saints. If everyone is healthy, there’s a good chance Ober will start the year in the Triple-A rotation. It would be great if Ober can set a new a career high in innings pitched in 2023, but he hasn't been a bastion of health with the Twins. Position Players Byron Buxton: Buxton had a tremendous start to his 2022 campaign on the way to his first All-Star Game appearance. His second half was much more limited while he dealt with a right hip strain and a knee issue. In September, he underwent season-ending arthroscopic knee surgery, which the team considered a cleanup procedure. He is expected to be ready as spring training begins, but injuries have impacted much of Buxton’s career. Carlos Correa: Correa has played 136 games or more over the last two seasons, so injuries haven’t been a concern in recent seasons. However, Correa’s ankle caused two contracts to fall through this winter. He is also not participating in the World Baseball Classic, but that is tied to his wife expecting their second child in March. Different injuries have marked Correa’s big-league career, but the team will likely be taking good care of his ankle during his remaining Twins tenure. Jorge Polanco: During the 2022 season, Polanco missed time with patellar tendonitis before landing on the injured list in early September. He tried to work his way back and played in minor league rehab games before suffering a setback. Polanco should be good to go at the start of spring training, but he is certainly someone to watch. Chronic ankle injuries have also impacted him in multiple seasons. Alex Kirilloff: Kirilloff missed time the last two seasons with wrist issues. Last season, he dealt with considerable pain while swinging, and the team needed to find a long-term solution. In August, he underwent a season-ending ulnar shortening procedure that is relatively rare for professional athletes. There are a lot of unknowns with this procedure and how well a big-league hitter can recover, although Kirk Gibson is one positive example to give you hope. First base is one of the most critical spots in the team’s line-up, and the club needs Kirilloff to produce at a high level. Trevor Larnach: In late June, Larnach underwent a bilateral surgical repair to treat a core muscle strain. At the time, the team thought that he’d miss six weeks, but he never returned in 2022. During the 2021 season, his performance suffered before the Twins demoted him to Triple-A. He later revealed that a hand injury had been bothering him. When healthy, he’s shown tremendous power potential but hasn’t been able to stay on the field. Are you worried about any of these injuries? Will the Twins be healthier in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Every club has spots on the roster up for grabs entering spring training. Here are some of the battles to watch as the Twins open camp. Image courtesy of Joe Camporeale-USA Today Sports Many Twins players have already reported to Fort Myers in eager anticipation of the 2023 season. Spring training is even more important for some players this season because they are battling for a roster spot. Minnesota has added depth at multiple positions, which means other players are pushed down the depth chart. For many of the battles, health is the most significant factor, so who will win these battles in the coming weeks? Starting Rotation Battle There are many questions about the Twins' rotation. Is Tyler Mahle healthy? No one knows how his shoulder will hold up as he ramps up for the season. How will Kenta Maeda return from Tommy John surgery? Maeda had a chance to return last season, but the Twins fell out of contention and didn't rush him back. Would the team consider a six-man rotation to keep players healthy? Bailey Ober is the odd man out in the rotation if everyone is healthy at the conclusion of spring training. Ober is the next man up from Triple-A if there is an injury. Potentially, the Twins could push a starter into a bullpen role to keep the player on the Opening Day roster. There is also a stable of young pitchers waiting in the wings, including Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson. There is depth there, but there are no guarantees everyone will be healthy on Opening Day. Bench Battle Many of the team's bench spots are already locked in, but the team can still go in a different direction. The Twins presumed bench is Ryan Jeffers, Kyle Farmer, Michael A. Taylor , and Nick Gordon. Staying healthy will be vital to keeping the team's bench depth. Gordon currently occupies the last-position player spot on the roster, but he is out of minor-league options, so he likely makes the team. Alex Kirilloff is returning from surgery, but there is no guarantee he will be ready for Opening Day. When spring training starts, the Twins can move Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack to the 60-day IL and open new 40-man roster spots. This could allow a veteran player to be added as a third catcher, or there will likely be a need for Kyle Garlick to be a bench bat in 2023. Gilberto Celestino has been part of the Twins roster over the last two seasons, but he's likely headed to Triple-A. Bullpen Battle Many of the roster decisions above aren't as complicated if everyone is healthy at the start of the season. The bullpen is another story, with eight spots to fill and multiple decisions on the table. Five bullpen spots are locked in with Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, and Emilio Pagan. In Twins Daily's roster projections, the final three bullpen spots are currently occupied by Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill. All three of these players have minor league options remaining, which helps the team have some roster flexibility. Alcala was limited to just two appearances in 2022 due to an elbow issue that eventually required surgery, so there is no guarantee he is at full strength. Moran and Megil pitched at Triple-A last year and are candidates to take the train back and forth from St. Paul in 2023. Other bullpen options could emerge this spring, especially from other 40-man roster options like Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder. The Twins used 38 different pitchers last season, so all of these players will be needed at some point in the coming season. Who will emerge from those roster battles? Which relievers will get the final spots in the bullpen? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Alex Kirilloff is following the path blazed by an MVP and World Series legend. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The Twins certainly have a history when it comes to their most hyped prospects getting to the majors and immediately or shortly thereafter suffering career-altering injuries. To make matters worse, these prospects usually show they can handle the hardest part of breaking through to the majors: holding their own, or even thriving against big league pitching/hitting. A few examples: Jason Kubel (Knee) Joe Mauer (Knee) Francisco Liriano (Elbow) Byron Buxton (Three Stooges Syndrome) Royce Lewis (Knee X2) Trevor Larnach (Core) And to a lesser extent: Bailey Ober (Groin) Christian Guzmán (Shoulder) Another player to add may be Alex Kirilloff. Drafted by the Twins 15th overall in 2016, he hit right away in the short-season leagues until he tore a ligament in his elbow and missed all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He reestablished himself in 2018, hitting .348 in two levels of Single-A. Prior to 2019, he was ranked by Baseball Prospectus as the 39th best overall prospect while being praised for “preternatural raw hitting talent.” He dealt with more minor injuries the following few years, but still ranked as high the ninth overall prospect at MLB.com and fifteenth at Baseball America. Opinions of scouts obviously differed, but no one doubted his hitting ability. The question was how much power he would show and at what position. However, since debuting in the 2020 postseason, just about nothing has gone according to plan. Kirilloff tore a ligament in his wrist in 2021 after starting out hot at the plate, tried to play through it and lost his ability to drive the ball. He underwent season-ending surgery, came back in 2022, and experienced the same soreness. He took some time off, went to Triple-A and raked for a month, his power seemingly back. He arrived back with the big club in June and continued to hit with a slash line of .306/.346/.469 in the 29 games following his promotion. He looked good at first and playable in the outfield. Had the Twins found their number five hitter for the next several years? Not quite. A recurrence of the same wrist issue again ended his season, this time resulting in a much more invasive ulna shaving surgery. Now, his .694 career OPS is below average and often quoted by national outlets as reasons why he is a disappointment, but that’s pretty lazy analysis. After starting his career 0-for-14 in 2021, Kirilloff went on a seven-game tear, hitting for a 1.190 OPS before he sustained the original wrist injury. A lot of players have hot seven game stretches, and never become anything, but the 29-game stretch in 2022 cemented for me what he is with two wrists. Watch a single game of a healthy Kirilloff while factoring in his prospect pedigree, and its hard to come away thinking he is anything but a pure, line-to-line hitter with tremendous plate coverage. That said, he is aggressive, and I doubt we’ll ever see him walk in ten percent of his plate appearances, healthy or not. He’s also not quick in the outfield, so his bat will need to carry him. But take a look at this swing, his second opposite field homer of that day, and tell me it won’t. In my player comps series, I compared his upside to a less patient Will Clark, but a more realistic comp may be Rondell White, a notoriously aggressive hitter who hit for high averages and decent power during his heyday with the Expos. The caveat, of course, is we don’t know how Kirilloff’s wrist will respond to the bone -breaking surgery and plate implant completed only six months ago. One source of optimism is the one major leaguer who underwent the same procedure over forty years ago: Kirk Gibson. After starring in baseball and football at Michigan State, Gibson was touted as one of the game’s premier power-speed prospects in the late 1970s but almost had his career ended before it began after he took a swing during his rookie season on June 16, 1980. He felt a pop in his wrist and immediately left the game. What happened next is documented in the book Detroit Tigers 1984: What a Start! What a Finish! “Gibson woke up the next day in severe pain. The team doctors could not find a problem, so the wrist was put in a cast to rest it. The injury resulted in a truncated season in which Gibson hit .263 with nine home runs. In August, he visited the Mayo Clinic, where doctors found the problem: an abnormal development in his arm bones. They shortened his ulna bone and inserted a steel plate. Gibson was told that he would need eight months of rehabilitation. There were no guarantees that the wrist would hold up or that Gibson would ever play baseball again. The irony was that the wrist injury would not have affected his playing football.” Gibson did reinjure the wrist in 1981 and sat out a month, but returned and hit .328 the rest of the year. The surgery was clearly a success, as Gibson hit .275/.358/.477 the rest of the decade, winning an MVP in 1984 and hitting perhaps the most famous home run in baseball history. By all accounts, Kirilloff is doing well in his rehab, experiencing minor soreness but not the pain he felt in 2021 or 2022. Expecting him to turn into Kirk Gibson is probably foolish (or at least unfair), but at least there is precedent for a top prospect to rebound from such an extreme procedure and have a long, productive career, View full article