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If this offseason is any indication, elite relievers will continue to get paid. Here are the pros and cons of approaching Jhoan Duran with a contract extension. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports There is no question about what Jhoan Duran meant to the Minnesota Twins during his rookie campaign. He immediately became one of baseball’s most dominant late-inning relievers. In 67 2/3 innings, he allowed 14 earned runs (1.86 ERA) with 89 strikeouts and 16 walks. He showed the Twins could use him in multiple situations, including closing games, multi-inning appearances, and getting the club out of jams. Duran led all AL pitchers in Win Probability Added while establishing himself as vital to the team’s long-term plans. Duran is entering his sophomore season so he won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025 season, and his earliest free agency is 2028. He has yet to make life-changing money, and that can be a good window for a club to approach a player about a long-term deal that buys out some of his free-agent years. For both sides, there isn’t a rush to do this, but these types of deals typically happen before a player reaches the arbitration process. Here are some pros and cons of getting a long-term deal for Duran. Pro: Cost Certainty Earlier in the offseason, the Mets signed Edwin Diaz to a five-year, $102 million contract, the richest reliever contract in history. He was scheduled to become a free agent, but the Mets ensured he didn’t reach the open market. It seems unlikely that the Twins will spend over $100 million to sign a relief pitcher because this front office has relied on internal options to fill bullpen roles. Other recent contracts might be more similar to what the Twins can offer to Duran. Entering last season, the Guardians signed Emmanuel Clase to a five-year, $20 million extension. The deal included a $2 million signing bonus and two option years (2027-28) at $10 million each. Incentives can make those option years worth $13 million, and they buy out his first two free agency years. Duran is a couple of months older than Clase, but Clase had roughly the same amount of service time as Duran when he agreed to his extension. Pro: Investing in Bullpen Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shied away from multi-year contracts for relievers. Addison Reed is the only reliever signed to a multi-year contract during their tenure. The Twins gave him $16.75 million, and he was limited to 56 innings because of multiple injuries. Reed was only 29 when he signed with the Twins, and he had been one of baseball’s most reliable relievers. Unfortunately, he wouldn’t pitch again at the big-league level following the 2018 season. At some point, the Twins will need to invest in the bullpen. No one knows what baseball revenues will look like in five years, and Joe Pohlad has noted that he expects the team’s payroll to rise in the coming years. Minnesota is entering the 2023 season with the highest recorded payroll in team history at $157 million, which ranks 17th in baseball and second in the AL Central. Duran differs from many relievers, and the Twins should make a statement by investing in him. Con: Health One of the main reasons Duran is in the bullpen is because of his health issues throughout his minor-league career. The Twins managed to keep Duran healthy during his rookie season, but there are no guarantees he will stay healthy in the future. Injuries highly impacted Minnesota’s roster last season, so the club might not want to invest significant capital into any pitcher, especially those with injury concerns. Reliever usage continues to evolve, and the Twins may continue using Duran in multi-inning appearances. Last season, the Twins were very careful with Duran and used him for more than an inning in 14 of his 57 appearances. It seems likely for that number to increase in the years ahead, but there are no guarantees his body can hold up to that increased workload. He has been a starter in the past, but there are scheduled rest days between appearances that aren’t guaranteed for a bullpen arm. Con: Age The Twins already have Duran under team control through his age-29 season. Even if he is baseball’s best reliever during the next five seasons, do the Twins want to guarantee him money into his early-30s? Clase’s contract has team options ($10 million) with buyouts of $2 million per season. That could help the Twins to approach this contract since they could get out of the deal for a relatively small amount. Minnesota has been spoiled with All-Star caliber relievers in the past, like Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Duran can enter the same category, but not all relievers can be this good. Relievers tend to have a high-level performance window that only lasts a few seasons before burning out. The Twins saw this recently with Tyler Duffey, one of baseball’s best relievers for multiple seasons, before being released last season. Few relievers can be among baseball’s best for more than a few seasons. Can you see the Twins reaching out with a deal similar to Clase? Is the timing right for an extension or should the Twins wait until next offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

An examination of the Twins roster in Derek Falvey's seventh year reveals four fundamental philosophies the organization has embraced. Today we look at how the organization has filled holes in their roster. Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports The core Falvey Philosophy is to fill out most of the Twins roster from their young core, but it is rare to see a team that manages to fill all areas of the roster with products of its own farm system, and the Twins are no different. The club generally does an adequate job of identifying areas of need and making moves to fill them--though the mileage on the moves may vary. Matthew Trueblood had a great piece on this, so I won't repeat his ideas in terms of the philosophy of said moves, but here are some examples. Coming off of a year in 2016 during which the catcher position was manned by Kurt Suzuki (on an expiring contract), Juan Centeno, and John Ryan Murphy with no imminent replacements, they signed Jason Castro to a three-year deal. The deal largely paid off, as Castro manned the backstop position serviceably and was a fixture in the lineup for three years. The club made a similar move ahead of the 2023 season signing Christian Vázquez, given their absence of a catcher not named Ryan Jeffers and no clear options in the high minors. We’ll see how it works a second time around. Heading into 2019, the club was in clear need of a third baseman with Miguel Sanó slated to miss the beginning of the season, at minimum. This led to the signing of Marwin Gonzalez, and given his positional flexibility, they were willing to go to two years to bring him in and find a role for him after Sanó’s return. In 2018, seeing a void in the bullpen both for that year and the future, the team sprung for Proven Closer™ Addison Reed, among others. The Reed signing is tied for the second-longest contract given to a pitcher in the Falvey-Levine era, and it went quite poorly, with Reed throwing 54 mediocre innings before his arm fell off, after which he never threw another Major League inning. The Reed signing may have played a part in the group's hesitancy to sign a pitcher of any kind long-term, because the only other pitcher signed for multiple years that they signed was Michael Pineda, twice. The first Pineda deal featured one rehab year in 2018 before paying him a full salary in 2019. He re-signed before the 2020 on something of a sweetheart deal due to his apparent appreciation of the team and his PED suspension. In both instances, the team had long-term holes in the rotation, so bringing in Big Mike filled a clear need at a reasonable price. They have shown some willingness to take risks on these veteran fill-ins, hoping either for bounce-back years or healthy seasons from oft-injured players, such as in the most recent signing of Joey Gallo or 2022’s signing of Chris Archer. This risk is often associated with their tendency to let the market play out. With fewer teams with which to compete, they can sign the remaining players at lower prices, which is how they managed to sign Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa, twice.. Those remaining players are often still available for one reason or another. Perhaps the greatest risk was taken on Correa in 2022, though he is the best signing in the team’s history. If he were to have suffered catastrophic injury in 2022, the club would likely need to pay him $70MM over the following two years. Still, it was a risk that they were willing to take to effectively employ a top-3 shortstop as a placeholder for Royce Lewis . Do you have a favorite veteran signing for the Twins over the last 7 years? View full article

The Minnesota Twins have a need for starting pitching entering the 2023 Major League Baseball season. If that feels like an evergreen statement, it’s because it is, but basically for every organization across the sport. For Minnesota, however, they need a frontline arm and they’ve never paid for one before. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports With Kenta Maeda returning to Rocco Baldelli’s starting rotation early next season, Minnesota should have a solid trio including former Cincinnati Reds, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle. They should get Chris Paddack back late in the summer, but will have 2022 Opening Day starter Joe Ryan until then. If Minnesota adds, and they need to, it must be an impact arm. We saw plenty of depth emerge with Minnesota blowing through a franchise-record 38 pitchers this season. Bailey Ober and Josh Winder showed up as expected. Cole Sands had his ups and downs, but Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson emerged maybe more quickly than assumed. There are guys that have experience and will be called upon. Knowing the window paired with youth is now, the best arms available should be on the table. Unfortunately, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have never shown a willingness to spend on starting pitching. Truthfully, Minnesota’s current front office has never spent on pitching at all. They’ve opted for reclamation projects in the bullpen, and largely looked to cut corners relying on coaching to get the best from those acquired. Lance Lynn begrudgingly agreed to a one-year deal in Minnesota following a standoff prior to his decision in 2018, and that was only for $12 million. The most this front office has ever paid in a single season was Jake Odorizzi during 2020, which was a $17.8 million qualifying offer that was worth less than half of the money due to a truncated season. In short, Falvey and Levine’s greatest expense for a pitcher on a deal they negotiated was Addison Reed’s $16.75 million in 2018. He owned a 4.50 ERA across 56 innings and never pitched again after his first season with the Twins. Maybe it’s that signing where the front office soured on paying for pitching. Maybe they didn’t like that Lynn clearly exhibited not wanting to be here after signing late in spring training. Perhaps it’s just been bad luck missing out on arms like Yu Darvish, Zack Wheeler, and Charlie Morton. Whatever it is, if paying for pitching isn’t ever going to happen, what are we doing here? Falvey was brought in to develop a pitching pipeline akin to what he was known for with Cleveland. The depth has started to rear its head, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Twins prospect currently projected to be a Number One starter. That’s where the focus has to be, and thus far dollars haven't been allocated for one. Falvey and Levine have taken swings on the trade market when looking to foot the bill. Gray has the chops to be a frontline starter (and he has been in the past), and development (and now health) from Mahle could put him there as well. Maybe this duo sees another arm they like enough to trade for, and acquire dollars on the payroll rather than negotiating it themselves. Either way, it is worth wondering if a big payday for a starter will ever come under this regime. Terry Ryan’s $54 million pact with Ervin Santana is still looking to be topped, and now seems as good of a time as ever. View full article

With a sweep in Toronto and a split at home against Detroit, the Twins delivered another winning week and built upon their lead in the AL Central. Below the fold, we'll unpack another week filled with strong hitting and pitching performances. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/6 through Sun, 5/12 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 25-14) Run Differential Last Week: +26 (Overall: +51) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.0 GA) Willians Watch: 1-for-5 last week (Season AVG: .315) Willians Astudillo is back! He was activated from the disabled list on Sunday and batted leadoff in his return. Meanwhile, Tyler Duffey (called up for Saturday's doubleheader) and Fernando Romero were sent back to Triple-A over the weekend. It's unfortunate because both have shown some nice signs (especially Romero, firing four scoreless innings with a 15% swinging strike rate in his past four appearances), but both will see more chances soon enough. HIGHLIGHTS As we reach the quarterpole in the MLB season, Minnesota has two players creating legitimate noise as MVP candidates. The case for Jorge Polanco thus far is easy to see. After another stellar week (11-for-26 with two home runs and three doubles), Polanco is hitting .324/.393/.607 ranks second only to Mike Trout in the AL with 2.1 WAR. Polanco's K/BB ratio is among the best in the league and he's hitting for incredible power. Best of all, he's doing it as a SHORTSTOP who holds his own defensively. It's a little tougher to make an MVP-pace argument for Mitch Garver, mainly because his playing time doesn't quite stack up. Splitting reps in a three-way catcher committee, Garver has fewer than half the plate appearances of Polanco. Yet in that time, he has produced more home runs (8 to 7) and nearly the same RBI total (16 to 17). We keep waiting for his seemingly unsustainable start to slow down, but week after week, Garver stays on fire. This last one was no exception: he went 6-for-13 with two more homers and six walks. Among American League players with 75+ PA, no one has a higher OPS than Garver (1.214). Assuming this optimism proves valid, it looks like the Twins dodged a bullet with their top pitching prospect, who has held opponents to a .168 average through his first 38 innings at Double-A. LOOKING AHEAD Another seven-game week lies ahead, with the Twins first hosting Trout and the Angels, then traveling to Seattle for four games against the Mariners. MONDAY, 5/13: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Tyler Skaggs v. RHP Jose Berrios TUESDAY, 5/14: ANGELS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Kyle Gibson WEDNESDAY, 5/15: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Trevor Cahill v. RHP Jake Odorizzi THURSDAY, 5/16: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Erik Swanson FRIDAY, 5/17: TWINS @ MARINERS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Felix Hernandez SATURDAY, 5/18: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Marco Gonzales SUNDAY, 5/19: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Yusei Kikuchi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 33 | MIN 8, TOR 0: Perez Impresses, Bats Bounce Stroman EarlyGame 34 | MIN 3, TOR 0: Berrios Hurls Gem, Twins Get Second Straight ShutoutGame 35 | MIN 9, TOR 1: Twins Steamroll TorontoGame 36 | MIN 6, DET 0: Odorizzi Deals (Again), Twins Win Fourth in a RowGame 37 | DET 5, MIN 3: Tigers Out-Tater Twins, Gardy Gets TossedGame 38 | MIN 8, DET 3: Now Witness the FirepowerGame 39 | DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem Click here to view the article

Luke Raley is raking in his first taste of Triple A. Acquired from the Dodgers at last year’s trade deadline, Raley has made an excellent early impression with his new org. He smashed his seventh home run of the season in a big three-hit game for the Red Wings. Come check out what else happened around the minors.TRANSACTIONS Miguel Sano is a step closer to returning to the Twins. He traveled to Rochester to join the Red Wings today. RED WINGS REPORT Durham 11, Rochester 8 Box Score Chase De Jong: 4.0 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 56.7% strikes (51 of 90 pitches) HR: Luke Raley (7) Multi-hit games: Raley (3-for-4, 2B, HR), Brent Rooker (2-for-5, 2B), Tomas Telis (2-for-4), Jordany Valdespin (2-for-3, 2 2B, BB), Drew Maggi (2-for-4) Addison Reed had a successful first outing of his rehab assignment. The follow up didn’t go so well. The second pitch out of his hand ended up in the seats for a solo home run. Reed gave up three runs on five hits in his inning of work. Silver lining: He got four swinging strikes and threw 16 of his 21 pitches for strikes. The Red Wings rallied back from being down 9-5 in the fifth inning to getting the tying run into scoring position in the eighth. Unfortunately, their rally ended there and to make matters worse Gabriel Moya gave up a pair of runs in the top of the ninth inning. Luke Raley was the big stud at the plate. He was 3-for-5 with a double and a home run. He scored twice and drove in three runs. Raley is now hitting an even .300 to go with a .929 OPS in his first taste of Triple A. Chase De Jong … ouch. He’s been really up against it this season, and now has given up 24 earned runs in 14 innings pitched for Rochester. Old friend Aaron Slegers got knocked around for six runs, five earned, on 10 hits over five innings for Durham. It is a really difficult time to be a pitcher at the Triple-A level right now. BLUE WAHOO BITES Mississippi 4, Pensacola 1 Box Score Griffin Jax: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 70.8% strikes (51 of 72 pitches) HR: None Multi-hit games: Taylor Grzelakowski (2-for-4), Jordan Gore (2-for-4, 2B) Griffin Jax lives in the strike zone. He does such an incredible job with throwing strikes it makes it really hard for opposing teams to really rack up any runs against him. Even with Mississippi hitting three home runs off him tonight, Jax still managed to limit the damage to four runs over his six innings of work. This is Jax’s worst start of the season, as he’d given up a grand total of two earned runs in six outings heading into tonight, but it’s still a testament to what he brings to the table even when things aren’t going his way. His ERA skyrocketed up to … 1.35. Wow, what a roll he’s been on. Unfortunately, the Blue Wahoo bats couldn’t pick up the slack as Kyle Muller, Atlanta’s No. 12 prospect per MLB Pipeline, pitched a great game for the Braves. Pensacola’s lone run was scored on a wild pitch. Cody Stashak pitched two perfect innings out of the bullpen and struck out four batters. In 17 innings so far this season he has 28 strikeouts and just two walks. Alex Kirilloff had the night off. MIRACLE MATTERS Game 1: Tampa 5, Fort Myers 2 (suspended in the fifth inning due to heavy rain) Game 2: POSTPONED This team can’t catch a break with the weather right now. This makes four postponements and a suspended game already this month. It’s only the 10th! The suspended game will continue in the bottom of the fifth inning tomorrow. Lewin Diaz hit another home run, his third in seven games, and Ryan Costello added another homer. But, those stats won’t become official until this game is completed. So you can read all about that (assuming the weather cooperates) in tomorrow’s report. KERNELS NUGGETS West Michigan 8, Cedar Rapids 1 Box Score Tyler Palm: 3.0 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 55.2% strikes (37 of 67 pitches) HR: None Multi-hit games: Gilberto Celestino (2-for-4), Yeltsin Encarnacion (2-for-3, BB) The Kernels just could not get out of the fourth inning tonight. Tyler Palm and Austin Schulfer combined to give up six runs on five hits and two walks. Meanwhile, the lineup struggled to deliver a big hit, going 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position while leaving eight men on base. This Cedar Rapids club could really use a boost right now. They’re 4-7 and have scored just 35 runs so far this month. Is it Wander Javier time yet? STARS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day: Cody Stashak, Pensacola Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day: Luke Raley, Rochester TOP PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed 6. Brent Rooker (ROC): 2-for-5, 2B, 2 R, RBI, K 11. Nick Gordon (ROC): 0-for-5, K, E (throw) 16. Gilberto Celestino (CR): 2-for-4 18. LaMonte Wade (ROC): 1-for-5, 2B, R 2 K SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester vs. Durham, 12:05 pm CT (TBD) Pensacola at Chattanooga, 6:15 pm CT (TBD) Fort Myers vs. Tampa, 2:00 pm CT (continuation of suspended game) Fort Myers vs. Tampa, 4:00 pm CT (Charlie Barnes) Cedar Rapids at West Michigan, 6:05 pm CT (Cole Sands) Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss the games. Click here to view the article

Today, six days before Minnesota welcomes the Cleveland Indians to Target Field, the Twins sent star pitcher Fernando Romero to Triple-A. The once highly-touted starting pitching prospect had been transitioned to relief work this spring. He was talked up as having electric stuff and being a real weapon out of Rocco Baldelli’s pen. Unfortunately, when the rubber met the road, there was more seasoning to be had. That isn’t the problem, but the fallout is. Across 9.2 IP down in Fort Myers, Romero coughed up 10 runs (nine earned) and fanned seven while walking eight. He had started out strong, and really faltered down the stretch. With Opening Day firmly in focus, the decision had to be made. Romero was going to need more time settling into his new role for Rochester. While it’s more than fair to suggest keeping Romero stretched out as a starter would’ve made sense, the consensus could be that he simply isn’t cut out for it. Regardless of the feelings from 1 Twins Way, the reality is that Romero is now going to upstate New York and will work a couple times a week throwing something like 20 pitches per outing. It will groom him for the role outlined for him in 2019 but doesn’t do much to help development as a rotation factor in the years ahead. We now know Romero’s path, and it was written on the wall for a matter of days now, but this is where Minnesota’s offseason starts to fall apart. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine failed to address pitching in almost any capacity. Blake Parker and Martin Perez have the chops to be nice additions, but they do little to raise the overall water level of the group, and don’t enhance depth at all. Going into Spring Training, Romero was viewed as (and talked about from team officials) as a key cog in this pitching staff. The minute that didn’t happen, things start to crumble. Add in the fact that Addison Reed hasn’t looked good at all, is now hurt with a trip to the IL possible, and things get rather bleak quick. Non-roster invitees Ryne Harper and Tim Collins are the two biggest names left in camp vying for one bullpen spot. Both have shown incredibly well, and Collins was a big name a few years ago for the Royals. It’s commendable that both have seized their opportunity, but them factoring onto an Opening Day roster that should have a divisional opportunity in front of them is a result of poor planning. Collins threw just over 20 innings with the Nationals last year. He was just ok, and he hasn’t been a big-league staple since 2013. His last (and only) truly good year was 2012, and he’s now both aged and gone under the knife since then. Harper has displayed a Bugs Bunny curveball but he’s a near-30-year-old career minor leaguer. He posted a 5.19 ERA at Triple-A Rochester last season, and while the strikeout and walk rates have both been great on the farm, no one has ever deemed it worthy of a callup. Neither option, Collins or Harper, is at fault for this. If nothing else, they’re doing everything in their power to be the solution to an organizational problem. By relying solely on the emergence of Romero, or the breakout of Matt Magill, Minnesota’s brass balked at opportunities to sign Joakim Soria, Kelvin Herrera, Brad Brach, Adam Ottavino, or even Craig Kimbrel. Martin Perez could’ve been added with another starter, allowing the “loser” to go to the pen. Any number of options could’ve been explored, but the suggestion was that we have this figured out. Maybe a handful of months from now we’ll look back on this as much ado about nothing. Romero could figure it out quick at Triple-A, come up and immediately be the weapon he was billed as. Maybe Collins or Harper will stick, and the front office will look great for their conviction. The flip side, however, is that the already non-existent depth is being exposed before Opening Day, and we know more names are going to be called upon. Paying relievers, and pitchers in general, is a fickle business practice. Good teams don’t let the elite pitchers get away and cashing in on high quality relievers before they go belly up is a smart practice. Playing in the minefield of free agency for these types is dicey, but unless you have a reliable stable on your own, targeting strong depth that pushes everyone else down a rung makes a ton of sense. The expectation for this club should be, and will remain, that the lineup will hit. Production 1-9 from this group should be plenty to win games on a nightly basis. Where they might lose the credibility comes in the form of trust placed on a suspect pitching staff serving up many more questions than answers. Right now, the front office believes in depth arms, I’m not ready to support them in that though. Here’s to hoping it’s this blogger with egg on his face. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

FORT MYERS, FL -- Big day at Hammond Stadium. Kyle Gibson started his road to recovery from e coli. Rocco Baldelli named the Opening Day starter. A former Cy Young winner visited the Twins' camp. And we're just three weeks away from real baseball."E coli can just wreck your system," Twins starter Kyle Gibson told reporters after his first spring training outing. Gibson was likely referring to his insides but his system for getting ready for the season was also disrupted some. He struggled to maintain weight and said his legs were a bit shaky yet his results in his first outing looked like mid-season form. "Now it’s just about getting the endurance back and keep working on the leg strength and keep gaining the weight back." Twins catching coordinator, Tanner Swanson, told me that the umpires serve a dual purpose for improving the catchers as well. With the human element umpiring, the organization can compare how well their backstops are at framing when cross-referenced against the Rapsodo data. In essence, the Twins are optimizing even the most mundane practices. *** Speaking of optimizing practices, the Twins believe they have trimmed a lot of fat off their daily workouts. MLB Network did an excellent inside profile on how Derek Shelton and the Twins have streamlined and refocused their daily routines in camp, trying to be more efficient. Gibson observed that one area that has been de-emphasized is time spent on defensive bunt coverage. “Bunting has obviously become less and less prevalent in the game so we didn’t have to focus as much on bunt plays or stuff like that,” he said. The Twins still practice it, to be sure, but since peaking at 2,878 attempts in 2012 over the last eight seasons, attempts were down to 1,810. It was determined that the player’s time would be better served working on other portions of the game. *** Unlike Sunday afternoon where the added velocity of Martin Perez and Jose Berrios, reliever Addison Reed struggled to crack 90 in his second outing of the spring. Reed had elbow impingement in 2018 which may have brought his average velocity down to 90.3 after hitting 92.3 in 2017. Baldelli wasn’t necessarily concerned over the results. “Addison is also a veteran pitcher as well. So you definitely balance knowing that he, probably more than anyone else here, knows how to prepare for a major league season.” That doesn’t mean that the staff won’t continue to help him make adjustments. “Wes or Hef, regardless whether a guy is a veteran or not, we do breakdown all the outings and we spend time on them and locate a couple of things we talk about.” *** Nelson Cruz is reportedly scheduled to make his first spring training game appearance. The big man put on a power display during live BP on the backfield and Baldelli hinted that his presence in the lineup could come as early as Thursday of this week. Click here to view the article

Building a bullpen is simple, you can just convert any of your excess starting pitchers into relievers, right? The Twins had better hope so. It’s already been confirmed Fernando Romero won’t be preparing as a starter, and if everyone stays healthy, one of Martin Perez or Adalberto Mejia will likely be joining him in the bullpen.Here’s hoping anyone who ends up converting takes quickly to the role. They won’t exactly be joining the most experienced bullpen out there. Take a look at the 40-man roster, there’s an alarming lack of arms with prior MLB experience pitching out of the bullpen. Here’s the entire list of pitchers with 10 or more career relief appearances in the majors: Addison Reed (465 games in relief) Blake Parker (229) Taylor Rogers (198) Trevor Hildenberger (110) Trevor May (100) Tyler Duffey (74) Matt Magill (45) Gabriel Moya (36) Also, bullpen coach Jeremy Hefner is in his first season. As is pitching coach Wes Johnson. And manager Rocco Baldelli too. What could go wrong? I’m not saying this current bullpen is completely doomed, but the floor is very low. If guys like Reed and Hildy can bounce back, as John wrote about earlier today, and Romero can take to his new role, this could be a pretty strong unit. On the other hand, just imagine the impact a Taylor Rogers injury would have. You can’t expect everything to go your way. If there was ever a team where some Fernando Rodney or Zach Duke types made sense, this would be it. There was a time when giving some fresh faces looks in relief would have made sense, but that seems like a poor plan to open a season in which you hope to compete. The perfect opportunity for guys to get their feet wet would have been at the end of last season. Andrew Vasquez got in there for a whopping five innings, that was nice, but this was also a team that dumped 23 2/3 innings into Matt Belisle. But here we are, it is what it is. That lack of established relievers also means even the bullpen reinforcements appear to be guys who are going to have to adjust to a new role. Zack Littell, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves or even Lewis Thorpe represent the next in line, but some of those guys will need to stay stretched out in order to serve as rotation depth. Of course, they can always make changes to the 40-man roster, but the guys next in line either have never pitched in the majors (Jake Reed, Ryan Eades) or haven’t been effective for some time (Tim Collins, Mike Morin). Just a quick note on the opener, I don’t think we see the Twins do much with it in 2019 unless things go very poorly. Even if it’s something they implement on a regular basis, you still need a lot of traditional relievers in your bullpen anyway. I take a look at the current construction of this pitching staff and see far from an ideal situation to expect a rookie coaching staff to successfully navigate. My original intention of this article was going to try to make sense of what the front office is thinking in terms of the bullpen, similar to the article I wrote about their additions to the lineup, but I can't do it. There’s no way we’re looking at the final picture. No way. I don’t have any inside information, this is all just a hunch, but I cannot imagine the Twins enter the regular season with the bullpen as it’s currently constructed. Among the top free agents still available (STILL!?!?!?) are Craig Kimbrel, Bud Norris, Ryan Madson, Adam Warren and Nick Vincent. Kimbrel is obviously the marquee name of that bunch, but I believe any one of those five guys could help serve as a stabilizing influence for this Twins pen. There are also always trades. The Twins have the prospects to give up, but I’m not sure if most non-contending teams would be motivated to make a move now or rather hold on until the trade deadline. I’ve been drooling over the idea of the Twins nabbing Mychal Givens from the hapless Orioles, though I’m not sure if there’d be any interest from either side. But the Twins will do something. I mean, they have to ... right? Right? Click here to view the article

FORT MYERS - Somehow a season that starts well and devolves is a more damning narrative than a season which never gets on track. If a player’s season just stinks from start to finish, the reaction is “how can he get back on track” or “he’s a good buy-low candidate, because that had to be an aberration.” But a season that goes downhill has less hope attached to it. We conclude he’s just not healthy, or the tank is empty, or he can’t make “the adjustment” or he just isn’t that good. This is the second part of a three-part series of interviews with Twins bounceback candidates. Part 1. Maybe that’s because we saw it happen, or maybe we already invested our emotions in the turnaround last year, so there’s nothing left. Whatever the reason, I don’t think it’s because the player is less likely to come back. Certainly, the two Twins players who fit that description seem hopeful, even anxious, for the season to begin. Their success could make a world of difference to the Twins bullpen. Addison Reed The plan for last year was for Addison Reed, who had been signed for a two-year, $17 million contract, to be the Twins bullpen’s cornerstone. He was early, posting a 2.83 ERA and 9.3 K/9 through the end of May. But his effectiveness and strikeout rate plummeted in June. Then in July he was on the disabled list for three weeks with an elbow inpingement. He never really got back on track. The numbers tell the story. Reed threw 28.2 innings in the first two months of the season, striking out 29 batters. He threw almost the same number of innings in the last four months of the season - 27.1, and struck out just 15. All his pitching stats - ERA, WHIP, hits - fell apart over those last four months, as did the Twins reliance on him. So what happened? “I ran into some arm troubles midseason. It’s one of those things that just caught up to me,” says Reed. He adds, “My workload in 2016 and 2017 was pretty heavy.” Yes, yes it was. Reed pitched in 157 games over those two years, throwing 143.2 innings. But that’s not all. “This is the first offseason in four years where I didn’t have to play extra baseball in the playoffs,” adds Reed. The postseason adds four games and 3.1 innings to that total, along with a shorter offseason for recovery. That kind of workload is one of the reasons the Twins signed Reed. So the injuries and ineffectiveness came as a surprise, especially after his strong start. “I felt fine, everything felt fine, but something can still pop up out of nowhere,” laments Reed. “I think that’s what happend. I felt fine. I didn’t change anything. I was doing everything the same.” So the plan this year is rely on last year’s relatively easy workload to give his arm the rest he needed to recover. “With the limited workload last year, I think things are going to be good this year,” Reed says. With only 56 innings last year and no postseason, his arm certainly got some extra rest. It’s also worth noting (although it was unsaid by Reed), that Reed was on pace for a career high mark in games and innings through April and May last year. That last week of May, he was used five times in seven days, including four days in a row. Changes to the coaching staff, along with a more measured approach might also help with a return to form. Trevor Hildenberger Despite being a rookie, Trevor Hildenberger was also supposed to be one of the pillars of the Twins 2018 bullpen. His impact late in the 2017 was as explosive as his side-arm delivery, racking up 44 strikeouts in 42 innings. The only concern was that he had faded in September; his ERA climbed from 2.29 to 3.21 over his last eight games. His 2018 started out well enough. Even after a below average April, he rebounded to a 3.33 ERA and an even better 1.13 WHIP through the All-Star break. Opponents had just a .689 OPS against him. But the second half was a disaster. His ERA was 9.00 over that half with opponents knocking a .974 OPS against him. Was he, like Reed, battling injuries? “I felt good. I felt healthy. My body felt fine. My arm felt fine,” says Hildenberger. Instead, he thinks the problem was with his command. “Inconsistencies led to that,” Hildenberger says. “My fastball command got away from me a little bit. So I worked on that this offseason, and in spring training I’m working on that, and hopefully get back to where I was at the end of 2017.” What kind of training does one do to fix command? “It’s mechanics for me, so i worked on keeping my front shoulder closed before my foot landed, and separating my hips and my shoulders in my delivery,” reveals Hildenberger. “if they’re firing together that’s when the ball starts to spray a lot more.” Hildenberger’s sidearm delivery means that when he misses his spot, the ball tends to miss side to side, rather than up and down. Since he’s throwing to the outside or inside edge of the strike zone, that presents a problem. “You’re missing either by a long ways, so it’s an easy take. Or you leave it over the middle,” Hildenberger explains. Again it’s worth noting that Hildenberger was called into action 43 times before the All-Star break, due to being so effective. That’s again pretty heavy usage for a reliever. It’s conceivable that more conservative usage by a new coaching staff could pay off in more success over the course of a long season. The Twins had two key components of their bullpen last year succeed early and fall apart midseason. The two showed different symptoms, and have addressed their struggles differently this offseason. But both also had extremely high usage for relievers early in the year. Perhaps the struggles we saw over the second half of the season can be remedied by individual offseason efforts, combined with a team approach to usage. Click here to view the article

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that the Minnesota Twins are expected to reach a deal with Blake Parker in short order. The 33-year-old will turn 34 during the 2019 season and is looking to improve upon a 3.26 ERA posted during 2018. The former Angels reliver is Minnesota’s first pitching acquisition of the offseason, and for a bullpen needing some help, is hardly aiming to high. Given the internal options however, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could certainly be rolling the dice on how some holdover names bounce back for 2019. Relief pitching is one of the most unpredictable assets in baseball year over year. Unless you’ve got an arm among the elite upper echelon of the sport, expecting consistency on an annual basis is a crapshoot highlighting the desire for teams to acquire arms on one-year deals. For Parker, there’s reasons to believe he’ll be as effective out of the bullpen as the likes of Zach Britton, Cody Allen, or any other player cut from a similar cloth. He’s not going to require much of a commitment from the squad, and he’ll help to raise the water level over the Matt Magill and Tyler Duffey types. It’s become apparent that Minnesota isn’t going to be a player on one of those elite talents at this point. Craig Kimbrel is really the only name left in that group, and even Adam Ottavino is a 33-year-old with a less than ideal track record. I wholeheartedly support the notion that Minnesota should be allocating funds to bring in another arm for the sake of talent, but the difference making presence certainly could come from within. While not remembering if I’ve discussed it in this space, I’ve tweeted often about the prospects of Fernando Romero as a reliever. It’s more than fair to dream about him as a top of the rotation starter, but right now he may not be there. Utilized in short bursts out of the pen, his electric fastball could be paired with one other offering allowing him to be relied upon by Rocco Baldelli. Starting out in somewhat of a middle relief scenario and eventually transitioning to high leverage, expecting the ceiling to be anything but through the roof for Romero seems shortsighted. There’s another guy that certainly could end up being the cream of the crop for the Twins in 2019 however, and he was worthy of a two-year pact just last offseason. Addison Reed is just 30 years old and signed a contract for $16.75 million over two years. He was coming off a two year stretch with a 2.40 ERA 9.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. Not tabbed to be the closer with Fernando Rodney in the fold, Reed brought high leverage and back-end experience to the pen. We know how his 2018 went and calling it suboptimal would be putting it nicely. He gave up far too much contract, lost velocity, and was batted around the park. Can 2019 be different though? Dealing with triceps tightness Reed hit the disabled list for the first time in his career last season. The move took place in early July and was a precursor for a season that simply wouldn’t get back on track. Owning an average 93 mph fastball in 2017 the juice had dipped to just 91.3 mph last season. After generating swinging strikes a career high 13.7% of the time in 2017, Reed got them just 10.7% of the time last season. Batters weren’t chasing, and the 78% contract rating was among the highest of his tenure in the big leagues. Going into the upcoming year there may be no more important player to the Twins eventual success than Reed. There’s no denying that having some stability around Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers is a must. Romero represents a nice upside play, and Parker will certainly help to support the group. As a new manager with a pen in flex Baldelli needs the best version of Reed for what lies ahead. Another opportunity at a payday is also in store for the California native, and slotting back into the late innings would do wonders for his future value. It remains to be seen if Reed is both health and effective, but a perfect mix would’ve made him among the most coveted arms on the open market in this circuit as well. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Twins head into this offseason with bullpen upgrades among their most glaring needs. This is largely because their boldest investment to address that unit a year ago has failed to pay dividends. Not only was Addison Reed's first year with Minnesota a disappointment, but his uncertain status going forward creates planning headaches in 2019. The only thing guaranteed with Reed for next year is his hefty salary. Can the Twins find a way to derive value from it?Between 2016 and 2017, no major-league pitcher made more appearances than Reed, who piled up 157 appearances for the Mets and Red Sox. The Twins signed him to a two-year, $16.75 million contract with hopes he'd become a stalwart in their bullpen. Paul Molitor tried to use him as such, deploying the right-hander 40 times through the team's first 84 games, but this time around Reed's arm wasn't up to the task. In his 41st outing, just ahead of the All-Star break, he coughed up three runs in the ninth inning of a loss to the Royals, adding to an extended run of poor performance, and was placed on the disabled list with right triceps tendinitis. The time off didn't cure what ailed him. As you can see in the chart below (via Brooks Baseball), Reed's velocity was at dire levels in the final months of the 2018 season: Download attachment: reed5yearvelo.png His results matched: In 14 appearances after returning from the DL in late July, Reed allowed a .302/.318/.524 slash line, striking out only seven batters in 15 innings with a lowly 8% swinging strike rate. It's about what you'd expect to get from a random minor-league journeyman rounding out the pen, not from your prized offseason upgrade. In 2019, Reed will be back, with his $8.5 million salary making him one of the team's highest-paid players. The hope, of course, is that he'll recapture his previous ability and fill the role originally envisioned for him. But can we realistically expect that? Well, the bad news is that reduced velocity and hittable stuff appeared to be Reed's new realities by the end of his 2018 campaign. While he was healthy enough to pitch late in the season, Molitor used him rarely, and never in close games. Reed often failed to even touch 90 on the gun with his once-potent fastball. In his first 10 appearances off the DL, he induced one or zero swinging strikes in nine of them. Distressing signs from a guy who hasn't yet turned 30. The Twins have to hope this was, more or less, a lengthy bout with dead arm. To my knowledge, Reed hasn't undergone any kind of corrective procedure, so he'll surely spend his offseason resting and strengthening. Sometimes, that does the trick. I can't think of any examples offhand but it does happen. (Maybe readers can think up some names out in the comments?) This isn't the kind of front office that'll fail to turn over any stones in assessing a problem, especially one as impactful to their 2019 planning as Reed and his contract, so I'm not inclined to believe there's any major ligament issue being overlooked, though it does bear noting that tricep injuries are often precursors to Tommy John surgery. The Twins revamped their medical staff last offseason and recently brought in a new strength and conditioning team, so we've gotta have confidence that they are making solid, well-informed decisions on this front. I would imagine that Reed has a very specific program in place for the coming winter. It's also promising that he'll have two new important voices surrounding him. Pitching coach Wes Johnson has long been known as a "velocity guru," who emphasizes lower-body involvement and takes full advantage of available technology to help his pitchers improve. Sounds like exactly the kind of instructor Reed could use. The Twins also have a fresh assistant pitching coach in Jeremy Hefner, who was already in the organization but will now be present in the bullpen to assist Reed more directly. Hefner is reputedly highly-regarded for his ability to break down video, and may form an empathetic connection with Reed, only three years his junior. Hefner is no stranger to elbow problems, having undergone two Tommy John surgeries before retiring a few years ago. I liken it to the dynamic between Rocco Baldelli and Byron Buxton; there's a unique perspective and resonance to be gained from having walked in a player's shoes in the not-too-distant past. Even if the Twins aren't able to juice up Reed's throwing speed again, Hefner may help guide Reed toward effectiveness with a lesser arsenal. This excerpt from a Mike Berardino 2017 profile on Hefner feels relevant now: The fact Hefner was able to hang around as long as he did with an 89-91 mph fastball seems to have smoothed the transition and helped a Twins staff that largely lacks swing-and-miss weapons. “Location is always paramount,” Hefner says. “Ultimately, this thing is about execution. That’s why this stuff speaks to me so well because I had to execute to be successful. If I was still playing and I had this information, it would free me up to not try to be nasty and just go execute.” The nice thing about Reed is that he has excellent control; his 5.1% BB rate since 2016 ranks eighth-best among MLB relievers. While his stuff played down in the second half of this season, he still stayed in the zone, walking only two of 62 batters faced in August and September. He seems like a viable candidate to succeed on execution over stuff. Under ideal circumstances, Reed will show up to camp in the spring with a fastball showing renewed life. It's important to remember how valuable he can be at full strength and effectiveness. In 2016 he ranked sixth among MLB relievers in WAR. Add that guy to the mix with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers and a couple of other offseason additions, and you've got the makings of a bullpen that can square off with the game's best. Sadly, it's tough to count on that happening. So the question is: how can the Twins get the most out of whatever version of Reed they get in 2019? At the very least, I feel good about the people now in charge of answering it. Click here to view the article

Looking ahead to the 2019 Major League Baseball season, it’s relatively apparent that this is a year that looms large for the Minnesota Twins front office. Embarking on year three, and with their hand-picked managerial candidate soon to be announced, the impact of change must be felt at the major league level. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done a good job revamping the organization, but the fruits of their labor must start to show promise. In an offseason of massive proportions, some aggressive moves could be on the table. I’m not sure how to categorize each of these scenarios other than to catalog them as realistic possibilities. Without attempting to venture down a hot take hole, each of the following situations could play out, but shouldn’t necessarily be banked on either. Minnesota has a significant amount of money to spend, and new talent should flood onto the 25 man roster this year. Noting both of those things as definitive truths, we could certainly see some interesting avenues explored when blueprinting how things look in March. Eddie Rosario Doesn’t Play for Minnesota in 2019 If the Twins want to make a big move on the trade market, dealing from the outfield could be the option they explore. Max Kepler could be had by an opposing team, but obviously brings back a significantly muted return. Byron Buxton combines a low value and high ceiling to find himself in a relatively untouchable form. In Rosario Minnesota would be capitalizing on a player at his peak. Eddie would bring back the most talent and would be of benefit to another organization for the next few seasons. At this point we’ve seen Rosario establish himself as a near All-Star caliber type of player. I don’t think the ceiling is much higher, but he’s also helped to cement the floor as being respectable as well. It would hurt the Twins to lose him, but there’s other avenues to make up the loss in outfield ability. Should the Twins pull off a big swap, I’d much prefer to see it include this name as opposed to some of the top prospects. Nick Gordon Gets Dealt This Winter Thinking along similar lines to any Rosario deal, Gordon is the prospect I’d try and entice another organization with. He’s still entrenched among Top 100 lists, and he’s just 23 years old. To be frank, that’s where the good news ends. Gordon has played 556 minor league games and owns just a .704 OPS. His only solid offensive output came over the course of 42 Double-A games while repeating the level to begin 2018. At this stage of his career it doesn’t seem like Gordon will stick at shortstop either. Destined for second base, light hitting, and lacking ideal on-base skills, he seems like a decent type of prospect to include in a trade to sweeten the deal. Should the Twins sign a middle infielder this winter (and they need to) Gordon falls further down the depth chart as well. Miguel Sano Is Done at Third Base There’s a lot of assumptions built into this one, but I don’t think any of them are a relative leap. Joe Mauer appears to have player his last game in the major leagues, and that leaves the Twins with an opening at first. The free agent market for the position is beyond ugly and dealing for some thump could prove to be an unwise endeavor. Reports on Brent Rooker in the outfield aren’t good, and they aren’t much better at first. Miguel has looked passable at times when it comes to his defensive ability, but it almost solely falls on his drive to be great. There’s a lot riding on how he prepares this offseason, and a move to first could allow him to slack further. That said, Minnesota can upgrade at the hot corner and grab the best bopper for first base from their own team. Both Mauer and Justin Morneau could help Miguel (if he’s willing) take to his new role this spring. Addison Reed Rebounds in Year 2 Going the one-year contract route on a few relievers, it was Reed who grabbed $16.75MM from Minnesota on a two-year deal prior to 2017. The numbers looked good for the home team, and Reed was expected to be every bit worth of that contract. Fast forward to today, and we saw a guy be both bad and hurt most of the season. Reed’s average velocity dipped to 91.3mph last year, which represented a career low and third straight season of decline. He’ll be just 30 years old however, and a clean bill of health should help significantly when it comes to righting the ship. Missing bats was the biggest problem for Reed last year, and that was evidenced by a career worst 7.1 K/9. Ticking the velocity back up and staying in front of hitters, he should see an ERA more in line with the 2.66 mark put up between 2015-17. Once the offseason gets started the Minnesota Twins are going to be a team with plenty of intrigue. The front office knows what is expected of them, and there’s more than one way they can execute upon vast improvement for the year ahead. After a winter where baseball mostly froze out free agents, I’d expect a significantly different couple of months this time around. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Kyle Gibson has been a steady performer this season, but Wednesday afternoon in Chicago the White Sox knocked him around a bit. Gibson failed to complete five innings for the first time since April 11 and just the third time overall this season in 26 starts. He also gave up three home runs for the first time all season. It was just the fourth time he’d given up multiple homers in the same game all season.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Gibson: 12 Game Score, 4.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 4 ER, 5 K, 4 BB, 59.0% strikes (62 of 105 pitches) Home Runs: Polanco (3) Multi-Hit Games: Forsythe (3-for-5) WPA of 0.1 or higher: None WPA of -0.1 or lower: Rosario -.143, Gibson -.402 Download attachment: chart.png To make matters worse for Gibby, Logan Forsythe committed an error that eventually led to three unearned runs. On a positive note, Forsythe had another good day at the plate, going 3-for-5. The Twins actually had a 2-0 lead before they even took the field thanks to a Jorge Polanco two-run homer, but couldn’t get much else going at the plate from there. Gabriel Moya took over for Gibson with two runners on and two down in the fifth. He walked the first batter he faced to load the bases, but then induced an inning-ending pop out. Matt Magill pitched a scoreless sixth inning. In the seventh, Addison Reed pitched his first 1-2-3 inning since June 6. In the 18 appearances he made between then and now, he surrendered 17 runs (15 earned) on 30 hits, four walks and a hit by pitch over 18 innings of work. On the downside, Reed still only topped out at 90.2 mph. To finish a positive day for the pen, Oliver Drake pitched a 1-2-3 eighth. He’s given up just one hit over 9 1/3 scoreless innings of work so far with the Twins. There were a lot of strange base running plays in the this series, but this one has to take the cake. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen822.png Next Three Games Thu vs. OAK, 7:10 pm CT: Kohl Stewart vs. Trevor Cahill Fri vs. OAK, 7:10 pm CT: Jake Odorizzi vs. Sean Manaea Sat vs. OAK, 6:10 pm CT: Stephen Gonsalves vs. Mike Fiers Last Three Games MIN 5, CHW 2: Wild Final Inning Puts Twins Over CHW 8, MIN 5: At Least That’s out of the Way MIN 5, DET 4: Late Rosario Homer Lifts Twins to Elusive One-Run Victory Click here to view the article

It wasn't so long ago that the Twins were flush with quality righties out of the bullpen. Even though the rest of his team was lagging around the middle of the season, Paul Molitor could feel confident in calling upon any number of stalwarts. Ryan Pressly, blowing people away. Addison Reed, living up to his billing. Trevor Hildenberger, as reliable as they get. Fernando Rodney, rattling off saves. Even Matt Magill was cruising along. Now, things have changed — most crucially, with respect to the 2019 bullpen outlook.Pressly and Rodney are gone. Reed's turned into a disaster. Hildenberger has been a mess for weeks (7.45 ERA and .620 opponents' SLG since July 1st). Magill started his Twins career by allowing one run in his first eight appearances, but has since by allowed 16 in 30 2/3 innings (4.70 ERA) and an .833 OPS. Suddenly, there is a great deal of uncertainty plaguing next year's bullpen – at least, one critical element of it. The left-handed contingent is far less worrisome. Taylor Rogers has enjoyed a spectacular year, and currently looks to be the club's best reliever. Gabriel Moya can be written in with ink. Lewis Thorpe or Adalberto Mejia could potentially join the fray. And even if the Twins feel short on internal options, it's never too hard to go out and find a free agent like Zach Duke who can get it done as a secondary southpaw. But there is far less assurance when it comes to bullpen right-handers (and, one might conclude, closer candidates). Unfortunately, the Twins have deprived themselves of opportunities to more thoroughly evaluate several of them this season. In any case, let's break down each key figure and where he stands as we roll toward the end of the 2018 campaign. Trevor Hildenberger When I ranked the top 20 Twins assets last offseason, I had Hildenberger as the highest reliever, and 11th overall. "The 27-year-old bears every attribute of a closer or high-leverage fireman for years to come, and is controllable through 2022." Hildenberger was only reinforcing his value through the first three months of this season, continuing to excel as one of the league's steadiest setup men, but things took a turn one sweltering day in Chicago at the end of June. In his 37th appearance, he coughed up five earned runs on four hits and four walks, while recording one out. It was not only the worst outing of his career, but one of the worst you're likely to see from any relief pitcher. Since then, things just haven't been the same. Before that game, the sidearmer had registered a 2.06 ERA and held opponents to a .197 average. Since then, he has a 7.45 ERA and opponents have hit .329. Hildy was nearly spotless throughout the minors, and during his first calendar year in the majors, so these extended struggles are unprecedented for him. The good news is that his peripherals aren't nearly so startling. Hildenberger's swinging strike rate has remained static, his walks have stayed in check, and his velocity hasn't dropped to an alarming degree (though it has dipped from where it was in the middle of the summer). There have been plenty of theories as to what's causing this dramatic drop-off in results — overuse, tipping pitches, maybe something so simple as MLB hitters catching on to his quirky delivery. Whatever the case, I'm not overly concerned, and still view him as a key long-term piece in this unit. But, it'd sure be reassuring to see the interim (?) closer string together a nice stretch over the final weeks. Addison Reed For the entirety of his tenure as Twins GM, Terry Ryan consistently opted against investing significantly in free agent relievers. Never once during his run did the team sign an outside bullpen piece to a multi-year deal. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine broke that pattern during their first full offseason at the helm, signing Addison Reed to a two-year, $16.25 million deal in January. Now? That contract has very quickly become a banner example of why Ryan's regime fiercely avoided such commitments. Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile, which was the primary thinking behind Minnesota's steadfast avoidance, but many fans (including myself) longed for the club to step up and pay the price for an established name. While not a top-tier talent, per se, Reed was certainly a more bold investment than we've ever seen from the Twins before on this front: A consistent performer. A successful closer. A hired bullpen ace, on one of the larger deals handed out to a reliever during the winter. Now, Reed is Exhibit A of the position's volatility. Following some solid initial returns, he has broken down, and can't be relied upon in any capacity. Frankly, it's impossible to believe at this point his arm is sound. Reed's velocity is as low as it's ever been. No one's swinging and missing at any of his pitches; he has induced a total of two whiffs on 71 pitches since coming off the DL. Two! What to do at this point? Shut him down? Take a closer look at that elbow? All I know is that sending him out to the mound is doing little good, and Reed is destined to enter 2018 as a complete question mark at best. Somewhere, Terry Ryan is nodding knowingly. Trevor May Enough with the bad news. While several of his peers have nosedived in the second half, May has been busy reintroducing himself – with authority. The 28-year-old rejoined Minnesota at the end of July, and has been fantastic. Yeah, he had a little hiccup on Thursday night when he entered and walked two with the bases loaded, but May was otherwise spotless over two frames, and throwing strikes hasn't exactly been a problem for him despite the long layoff. Those walks are the only he's issued in 6 2/3 innings, during which he has registered a 21% swinging strike rate. To say May is dominating at an elite level would be an understatement; Josh Hader leads all qualified MLB relievers with a 19.5% whiff rate, and might be the best reliever in baseball. May is the best bet to fulfill Pressly's vacancy as a high-octane late-inning weapon. He's got closer stuff but is more alluring as a situational fireman. I'm beyond giddy to have this guy back in the mix, and am more optimistic about him than any other player listed here going forward. Matt Magill He was a nice story for a while. Plenty of failed starters have gone on to establish themselves as quality MLB relievers, and Magill had a chance to be join those ranks. He still might. But the 28-year-old journeyman has given Minnesota little reason to maintain intrigue. Even when Magill was experiencing a surprising early run of success, Molitor was reluctant to use him in any kind of meaningful situation. Perhaps he sensed what was coming. Magill hasn't been a disaster by any means, but he also hasn't been anything special, and given his circumstances it's tough to see him edging enough others on this list to stay in the picture. Working against him is a sudden decline in control – after walking four batters in 17 appearances through the end of June, he's walked six in nine appearances since. Tyler Duffey Duffey deserved better. It's befuddling that Magill slid ahead of him in line, and utterly baffling that Matt Belisle did. Why are these random pickups being prioritized over a homegrown talent with proven ability? Duffey was never meant to a be a starter, and unfortunately much time was wasted on that failed experiment, but the former college closer has shown plenty since moving back to relief duty. He pitched far better than his 4.94 ERA in the Twins bullpen showed last year, with a 67-to-18 K/BB ratio in 71 innings. He's got a hammer curve that works beautifully in short stints. He's been shutting down Triple-A hitters all year. And yet it took Duffey until August to get another real shot with Minnesota. I guess that speaks to the front office's opinion of him. I can't say I understand it, personally. Duffey's fine work since rejoining the Twins bullpen (zero hits allowed in 3 1/3 innings) speaks to what he can do. But now he's in the tough position of trying to make an overwhelming impression in the final weeks, and next spring, because he's out of options in 2019. Given their ambiguity with bullpen righties going forward, the Twins' refusal to take an extended look at Duffey this summer strikes me as one of their biggest follies. We'll see what happens. Alan Busenitz In many ways, Busenitz falls in the same category as Duffey. He's been brilliant in Triple-A all year and has major-league experience, but has repeatedly been passed up by less deserving candidates. Operating with mid-90s heat and a solid curveball, Busenitz has turned in a 2.48 ERA and 45-to-8 K/BB ratio in 40 innings at Triple-A. Meanwhile, he's gotten only 13 innings in the majors. I will say that I'm not quite as miffed with the team's handling of Busenitz as Duffey. On merit, he absolutely has deserved more of a chance, but to me there are ominous harbingers in Booze's profile. As I noted in spring training when he was competing for a roster spot, fly ball pitchers who don't miss a ton of bats don't tend to fare well in the majors. Busenitz still has an option left, which surely will work against him. Based on his treatment this year it's hard to see him being legitimately in the running for a bullpen spot next spring. Oliver Drake He's one of the ostensible journeymen who's gotten a look ahead of Duffey and Busenitz, but Drake isn't as bothersome as others. Yes, he's 31. Yes, he's pitched with four other teams this season. But there is actually a lot to like about him. He's been a monster in Triple-A (1.80 ERA, 12.7 K/9 in 110 IP). He has also averaged 9.9 K/9 in the majors, where his 3.47 FIP clashes with a 4.82 ERA. And since joining the Twins, the waiver pickup has looked great, striking out six while allowing one hit and three walks over 5 1/3 innings. He's got a funky delivery and some eye-catching breaking balls. If he throws it over the plate, Drake can be a real factor. I'm actually quite interested in watching him over these finals weeks, and would love to see a few higher-leverage chances. To me Drake is exactly the kind of player a team like the Twins should be auditioning in their current position. John Curtiss Inadequate control can be the bane of so many otherwise capable pitchers. Perhaps that'll prove to be the case with Curtiss, whose dazzling strikeout rates through the minors have raised eyebrows. As he's moved up and hitters have become more selective, the 25-year-old's strike-throwing issues have been magnified. He's averaged 4.4 BB/9 in 71 innings at Triple-A, and has barely gotten a chance in the majors. His extremely brief stint with the Twins this year was nightmarish, and included two run-scoring wild pitches in a single inning. With an option left for 2019, he will stay on hand as depth, but Curtiss needs to make serious strides with his command to have any chance of breaking into Minnesota's bullpen for good. Luke Bard It was frustrating to see Bard swooped away in December's Rule 5 draft, when the Twins left room on their roster to select Tyler Kinley (remember him?). But the Angels didn't stick with Bard and his elite spin rate for long, returning him to the Twins in late April. Since rejoining the organization, the former first-round pick has remained in Triple-A, where his season's been a mixed bag. The strikeouts have been there for Bard (43 K in 38.2 IP) but he's been oddly hittable, allowing a 4.89 ERA and .807 opponents' OPS. He turns 28 this offseason so his prospect luster is diminishing, but Bard isn't without hope. *** Beyond the above list, there are several others who could be right-handed bullpen factors in 2019, including Nick Anderson, Jake Reed and (if they'll just give him a dang chance in relief) Kohl Stewart. But right now the nine players listed above look like the main contenders. Are you comfortable with this depth amidst some clear uncertainty at the highest ranks? Click here to view the article