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Remember when the Minnesota Twins had a terrible bullpen and it was one of the worst in baseball? That’s how the 2019 Major League Baseball started, and aside from Taylor Rogers, Rocco Baldelli was chucking darts when turning to his relievers. At the trade deadline the Twins were supposed to upgrade their staff, and while they got one burned on one deal, they did accomplish that through another. More than anything though, Minnesota has benefitted from internal talent rising to the top. Against big names in the Yankees pen, could the Twins really have an advantage? You know the names in New York. Aaron Boone will be able to turn to the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, and Adam Ottavino. Throw in the strikeout rates of both Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle as well and you’re looking at quite a daunting group. Boone’s relief corps is battle tested, veteran laden, and built to propel them through a few weeks in October. There’s zero denying the talent and ability of this group. Statistically speaking, Minnesota has been better, however. We’re splicing the season into a two-month sample, but since the trade deadline the Twins owns the second-best bullpen in baseball (trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays). At 4.0 fWAR, Minnesota is nearly two full wins clear of the trio tied for third (Athletics, Dodgers, and Yankees). WAR can be a misleading compiling numerator, but the Twins have generated their result in just 214.1 IP. That’s 50 innings shy of the first place Rays (who they trail by just 0.1 fWAR), and 25 innings below the output of the Yankees. Quality in less quantity is something we’re seeing develop in this space. This isn’t your Minnesota arms of yesteryear development either; there’s no smoke and mirrors happening. Baldelli’s relief corps has a 10.2 K/9 (top 10) and the lowest walk rate in the sport (2.27). It’s not a ground ball dominated approach, but a 13.3% HR/FB effort is the 6th lowest in baseball (and 3rd best among Postseason teams). Although six other units have posted lower ERAs, Minnesota’s league leading FIP substantiates that this performance is for real. When poking holes in performance there is some potential cause for concern. The Twins are in the bottom five when it comes to surrendered hard hit rate, and while their BABIP is in the top third, it’s not unexpected following hard contact. Thwarting that though, is the quality of offerings sent up to the plate. Minnesota leads baseball with a 34.7% chase rate. Hitters expanding the zone is also accompanied by a whiff rate of 13.2%, or 5th best in baseball. Opposing batters make contact just 73.3% of the time (9th lowest) but given the first two inputs, they’re often attacking what would be described as a pitcher’s pitch. Breaking it down to singular players, Tyler Duffey is second in baseball in terms of fWAR since the trade deadline. Before giving up a homer to Jorge Soler in his final outing of the year, he’d gone 23.2 IP (dating back to July 28) without surrendering a run. He gave up just 11 hits in that span and owned an insane 40/5 K/BB. Taylor Rogers and Zack Littell have also been top 30 relievers since the deadline, and reflect the group being a strong sum of its total parts. It’s hard to suggest that the emergence of strong performances from Twins arms is as beneficial as what New York can turn to. Similarly, to the rotation questions for the Yankees, Minnesota’s stance is more of opportunity than favorability. That being said, it’s very clear the skill gap here is minimal at best and things could swing either way. Credit must be given to the development of the Twins arms, and the position they now find themselves in because of it. A few years ago, the Chicago Cubs gave up Gleyber Torres in an exchange to grab a World Series on the left arm of Aroldis Chapman. Boone is going to have his horses ready to go, and New York can willingly shorten a game with relievers. Although the Twins don’t have an Ottavino or Britton, they do have a Duffey and Rogers that look to provide the same value with the generic brand label. When dissecting much of this series it becomes abundantly clear how close these two opponents are. The bullpen being as such would’ve been a laughable suggestion a few months ago, but here we are. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Let’s get this out of the way right now: This Twins team hasn’t lost anything to the Yankees. None of these guys care about what Ron Gardenhire’s clubs did against the Evil Empire, and I can guarantee no one in the current clubhouse is worried about what wins and losses took place a decade ago. Let’s view this through the lens of relevance in the here and now. Chasing down the best record in the American League, the only thing in New York’s way is the Houston Astros. Besting a rotation bolstered by Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke in a five or seven game series seems near impossible. That isn’t just a Minnesota hurdle, but one that makes Houston the odds-on favorite to win the World Series regardless of who they play. The best way for the Twins to generate positive momentum is an ALDS victory, and the most optimal way for that to occur is a few wins in the Bronx. So why the Yankees? I’m glad you asked. Starting Pitching Does it stink that the Twins won’t be able to turn to Michael Pineda at any point? Certainly. Do they need Jose Berrios and a few of his co-workers to step up? Certainly. Are they going to have opportunity against a New York group that owns the 19th rotation in baseball, and 15th since August first? Absolutely. James Paxton has had a lackluster 2019, but he’s been exceptional of late. A 2.57 ERA since August 2nd is the type of arm the Yankees intended to acquire. As a game one type pitcher, he’s everything you could hope for. From there, Aaron Boone has Masahiro Tanaka, Domingo German, and J.A. Happ. That trio has as many warts (if not more) than the group Minnesota would call upon to oppose them. The Twins may not see Happ in an effort to keep a lefty off the hill, but the lineup can certainly bang through any of those arms. Relief Pitching It’s kind of weird to think a group with Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, and Zack Britton could be bested but Minnesota is doing that just now. Since the trade deadline only the Tampa Bay Rays have a better relief corps than Wes Johnson’s group. The Twins don’t have the names, but Sergio Romo has bolstered an internal group anchored by the likes of Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May. Realistically the Twins need to be able to get something from Sam Dyson. Knowing October games will be shortened by relief arms getting extended work, Baldelli needs the ability to turn to his recently acquired help. Hopefully the Twins can get his biceps soreness right over the next couple of weeks and get him back in the fold. New York is going to get better with the additions of Dellin Betances and Luis Severino. There’s no denying their group has the bigger names and more trustworthy performances. Because Minnesota started the year with so many question marks doesn’t make that a reality now though, and this collection of Twins' relievers can get the best of them. Lineup After setting the major league record in home runs for a single season, it’s easy to call the Bomba Squad a force to be reckoned with. The Yankees are the one team that holds a candle to that power though, trailing in the same stat by just single digits. The collection often known as the Bombers have plenty of pop on their own, but there’s also a level of uncertainty. Left fielder Mike Tauchman was just lost for the year, and former Minnesota outfielder Aaron Hicks is still on the shelf. Edwin Encarnacion and Gio Urshella recently returned to active duty, but they both need to work their way back in (Edwin appears to be acclimating just fine). Much like the Twins, there aren’t many holes in this group one through nine, but they’re also a team that can be hung with. The two squads are separated by less than 10 runs in total run differential, and despite a few game difference in the win column, that’s indicative of how similar they are. It’s obvious that the Twins need to get healthy. The Minnesota lineup needs a full go Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, and Max Kepler. Jake Cave being back with Marin Gonzalez are also must have additions. There’s no denying that the current Rocco Baldelli group isn’t in an optimal spot. Fast forward two weeks though and getting proper rest and healing would leave about a week of runway prior to the postseason. If the organization can prioritize health, and mix in some winning along the way, then October gets significantly brighter. The rotation was going to need to step up in big spots regardless of who was available. Health is more important than the loss of Pineda, and stealing games is going to need to happen against the Astros rotation regardless. The Twins are as good as the Yankees in 2019 and establishing that during the ALDS would go a long way for the sake of momentum. Winning the World Series is difficult. One team out of thirty ends their season on a winning note. Not all organizations have the same probability, and even being among the final ten teams, odds are stacked in a few teams' favor. If you’re a Twins fan down the stretch though, you should be a Houston fan as well. Let the October road begin in New York and grab a big series victory before giving World Series favorite Houston all you have.
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