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Rumors about the Twins pursuing shortstop Trevor Story in free agency has rendered a large portion of Twins fans excited. However, every time a former Colorado Rockie draws interest from other teams, some fans will inevitably point out the “Coors Effect.” Should that really dissuade the Twins from signing Story? First and foremost, I believe it’s crucial to get as much important information about this topic as possible out in the open. People shouldn’t just stick to shallow common-places when there’s so much in-depth information and analysis out there. That’s especially true when it comes to the effects of altitude in baseball. In this brilliant 2020 article, Rox Pile’s Kevin Larson buts the myth that hitters at Coors Field only succeed because of the altitude. I’ll be quoting a few parts of that article here, but I think everyone would learn a lot if they read the whole thing. Basically, Larson advises people to do two things when analyzing players' performances at Coors: Take into account the unique circumstances Rockies hitters live through, having to adjust to different pitcher approaches in Denver and on the road; Ignore the traditional stats splits and focus on Park Adjusted stats, like wRC+, OPS+, and DRC+, which can paint the big picture more nicely; Then, Larson goes on to provide several examples of both hitters who improved their wRC+ after leaving the Rockies, but also the contrary, players whose offensive productivity decreased after they joined the Rockies from other teams. Can you guess a former Twin, winner of an MVP in Minnesota, who falls in that last category? The bottom line is, things aren’t as simple as “hitters won’t succeed after leaving Coors.” Trevor Story's traditional splits sure don’t look good, but that shouldn’t be a reason not to bring him to Minnesota. Not only would the Twins be giving up on a potentially above-average right-handed hitter, but they would be bailing on one of the best defenders in the game. One of the best examples of former Rockies who succeeded elsewhere is second baseman DJ LeMahieu, who was signed by the Yankees in 2019 and has since won two Silver Slugger awards and received MVP votes in two seasons (finishing third in 2020). Take a look at some of his numbers. DJ LeMahieu's splits during his time with the Rockies (2012-2018), per Fangraphs: Home .329/.386/.447 (.834) .374 wOBA 96 wRC+ 13.4% K% 8.6% BB% Away .267/.314/.367 (.681) .298 wOBA 84 wRC+ 17.0% K% 6.2% BB% DJ LeMahieu as a Yankee, overall (since 2019), per Fangraphs: .307/.370/.461 (.831) .356 wOBA 126 wRC+ 13.2% K% 8.8% BB% The same way the belief that “Coors hitters do badly once they leave Colorado” shouldn’t be a rule, LeMahieu’s example isn’t a rule either. Former Rockies cornerstone third baseman Nolan Arenado, for instance, didn’t improve his numbers the same way LeMahieu did. However, his overall numbers in St. Louis didn’t get worse either. They were actually slightly better than his road numbers while with the Rockies. Nolan Arenado's splits during his time with the Rockies (2013-2020), per Fangraphs: Home .322/.376/.609 (.985) .409 wOBA 129 wRC+ 13.7% K% 8.0% BB% Away .263/.322/.471 (.793) .334 wOBA 108 wRC+ 16.3% K% 7.8% BB% Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal, overall (since 2021), per Fangraphs: .255/.312/.494 (.807) .336 wOBA 113 wRC+ 14.7% K% 7.7% BB% In conclusion, Trevor Story’s splits shouldn’t dissuade the Twins from trying to sign him. As someone who follows the Rockies very closely, I can attest to how talented and hard-working he is, and also how fun it is to watch him play every night. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

We have baseball! Or, we don’t have a lockout! Or, both, eventually. Today Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) reached an agreement on the parameters of a deal to put a new CBA in place. Baseball is back for 2022. While there’s still a significant amount of legal semantics to figure out, and the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) needs to be ratified, the season has been salvaged. Despite MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred suggesting that February 28 was the deadline in which a deal needed to be agreed upon to avoid canceling regular-season games, the two sides worked tirelessly to hammer out a deal. The calendar has flipped to March, and multiple sessions have been hammered out, but we now have resolution. The reality is that MLB was looking at a third straight season in which baseball would be anything as we’ve known it. Following a 60-game season in 2020 and then a Covid-influenced year during 2021, the best hope for normalcy lay on the back of 2022. We don’t have Spring Training on time, and it will be a sprint to Opening Day, but a full 162-game schedule should be on the books. A point of contention late in the negotiations was that of an International Draft. Very little is known about the parameters as the sides still have until July 25 to agree on its inception, but it would remove the signing bonuses and put players into a draft system. Jeremy Nygaard recently wrote up some of what has been reported thus far. If the MLBPA decides against an International Draft, as a large contingent of players have been against for decades, they would then forfeit the remove of a qualified offer being tied to draft pick compensation. Multiple sources put in incredibly long hours to keep us abreast of the negations. Still, it’s going to be an absolute feeding frenzy from here regarding transactions. Hundreds of players still need to be signed with multiple organizations looking at trades to solidify their 2022 rosters. As players report to Arizona and Florida for Spring Training, the activity will be like we saw in the lockout lead-up and then multiplied. With the ratification of this CBA, free agency begins tonight! Make sure to check back to Twins Daily often as the excitement and speed in which players are signed should be nothing like we've ever seen before. There’s no denying this has been an incredibly frustrating offseason for baseball fans, but it appears we’ve now weathered the storm and are ready for a return to action. As Twins Daily has continued to keep you informed all offseason and through this lockout, make sure to stay engaged and check back through free agency and Spring Training with both getting underway. The only thing left is, Play Ball! What We Know 12 teams make the postseason and how it works Universal DH is implemented A full 162 game schedule with pay, including 9-inning DH'ers to make up missed games. Free agency will start tonight Players can report to Spring Training tomorrow, mandatory by March 13 The qualifying offer being removed is tied to the acceptance of an International Draft A breakdown of the economics The final vote was substantially in favor of acceptance, despite the union board being so against it Regular doubleheaders and extra-inning rules return Ratification is set to happen at 5pm CT during an owners call The regular season calendar will be extended by three days with 3/4 DH'ers making up the others. Spring Training will last 3 and 1/2 weeks starting around April 20 Pitch clock and shift changes can be implemented starting in 2023 A six-pick draft lottery will be held with the 18 teams not making the postseason Rule changes will be a discussed process between players and the league Arbitration numbers will be exchanged at the end of March with hearings during the season Players can only be optioned 5 times per season. Draft is 20 rounds Additional year of service time granted to top Rookie of the Year finishers The Rule 5 Draft is cancelled this year A 4th tier has been added to the CBT to prevent runaway spending Additional MLB Draft implications for top draft eligible players Salary increases for 40-man players at Triple-A One of the pending grievances against MLB was dropped Rules can be changed during a single offseason Players can benefit from promotional opportunities with betting companies Teams will play every other Major League team each year starting in 2023 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook , or email View full article

We have now heard plenty through the lockout and the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that owners are unmoved by missing April baseball. It doesn’t seem to hurt their bottom line, and it may actually help it. How does that relate directly to the Twins? The financial impact of the lockout and CBA issues have primarily been the most contentious points. Players are looking to secure stronger futures for the next generation, while owners are looking to stretch their return on investment even further. We’ve been fed the notion that losses were substantial in 2020, and potentially even 2021, due to Covid, but I’m guessing the reality lies closer to a decrease in revenues. With the assumption that these astute business people are not operating castle appreciating organizations in the red, they’re likely seeing this round of negotiating as a way to recoup some of those revenues. That would’ve been the case in 2020 when just a 60-game prorated portion of salaries was paid. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred imposed that season instead of the league agreeing with the union to the longest season possible. It’s no secret that owners rake in their largest payouts from the postseason, and so a blueprint of reduced regular-season games would always stand to benefit those at the top. Specifically for 2022, I wondered what the Minnesota Twins would be pocketing due to this shutdown. As of now, owners are arguing that canceled games will result in lost pay for players or no back pay on their salaries. Baseball-Reference and Spotrac currently have the Pohlad’s doling out an estimated $85 million for 2022. A traditional MLB calendar is defined as 186 days long, with 172 required for a full year of service. That regular-season calendar was set to begin on March 31, 2022. At this point, Rob Manfred has canceled the first two series of the season, and it seems a good bet more are coming. At $85 million, the Pohlad’s save roughly $456k per day wiped off the calendar. Seven days into the canceled action, they’ve already been able to pocket $3.198 million. We’re getting to a point where the month of April looks to be in jeopardy as a whole. In that scenario, 31 calendar days will have been torn up, a savings of $14.16 million. What we’re getting at here is undoubtedly a logical assessment of what we’ve been told. The group of owners dug in on monetary issues may definitely be looking at the first month as an opportunity to cut losses. Most organizations have not filled out their rosters and have more to spend in doing so, but that significant reduction in costs would undoubtedly help them lick the wounds suggested in previous seasons. Assuming reports of rebates being unnecessary to Regional Sports Networks (RSN) if less than 25 games are canceled, it’s a perfect storm. The sentiment that ownership is primarily out to maximize profits has been there for quite some time. As bad of a figurehead as Rob Manfred is, he’s representative of the wishes his owners are pursuing. Right now, it certainly looks plausible that the group is going for the least amount of action they need to pay for, with the most significant amount they earn on. As fans, we all lose, and some have even funded this venture by offering interest on dollars paid for season tickets or Spring Training games that were never going to occur. It’s certainly possible none of this is desired, and it’s all just a byproduct of a nasty work stoppage instituted by the league. Maybe the union will negotiate back pay for the players. Right now, though, I’d be against any owner going on record with their intentions, and we’re left to connect the dots. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

For weeks we’ve heard doomsday talk of how baseball may never rebound from the loss of interest currently created by this lockout. As owners seem intent on shelving the game, I wondered whether missed baseball actually has the impact we’re being fed? From a straightforward and surface standpoint, of course, not having Major League Baseball around is disheartening. Sure, there’s college baseball, and soon the minor leagues will kick off, but it hardly feels like spring with reports circulating from Arizona and Florida. That’s through the eyes of a purist, though. You, here, the reader at Twins Daily, likely falls in that camp as well. Does baseball being missed spell catastrophe for the sport? In wondering this, it comes with the assumption that there are essentially three factions of fans. First and foremost, the diehards will be there whenever the sport returns. You’ll consume your favorite team, watch the vast majority of their games, and pour over stats as they trudge on towards the postseason. The next group would be comprised of casual fans. You probably have a favorite t-shirt or cap and find yourself having a passing rooting interest in a team. Going to the ballpark is more a summer activity than a necessity, but you’ll hardly balk at a ballgame being turned on. You’ll find yourself more interested in September and October, but the season is probably too long to keep up with anyways. Then the final group is likely the one Major League Baseball is failing to capture most, those that aren’t presently fans. Whether that be the next generation that is more into other sports or those that find this one less than compelling. It’s in this group, though, that I found myself wondering, how much does a lockout actually impact the desire to consume? Of course, there not being Major League Baseball at all right now presents a significant roadblock for anyone. That said, the person not interested in the game likely isn’t chomping at the bit to watch Spring Training action or be invested during April (also likely why the owners are willing to sacrifice those games). That group is also likely unmoved by much of what is happening in the sport. Whether they know there’s a lockout or not, they certainly don’t care about the financial impact. More importantly, though, it’s worth questioning whether they care about proposed tweaks to the game. Will larger bases and pitch clocks shave off 10 minutes regularly enough to draw new eyes in? Will banning the shift lead to double-digit run production that suddenly makes the sport a football game? At the end of the day, I’m not sure how much baseball being non-existent directly correlates to the loss or growth of the sport. Consumers were different following the 1994/95 strike, and steroids along with the home run chase provided a path back before there was social media and the internet. Now though, baseball is still trying to compete with different iterations of itself in growing the game, but failing to realize the avenues to new fans are unaffected. The next generation of consumers finds viral excitement on social media, through streaming services, and because of content creators. Major League Baseball failing to tap into those markets adequately seems far more detrimental than a lockout or three-hour affair. It makes sense for the players to get as much right in this Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) as they can and then for Major League Baseball to work in different directions with hopes of expanding its product. I’m not so sure they relate as directly as we may assume. Do you agree or disagree? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Right now Major League Baseball may be as low as it’s ever been. Back during the 1994 and 1995 strike I was just five years old, way too young to be bothered by what was taking place. At this point in my life, it’s anything but. After Rob Manfred’s address yesterday I could produce nothing more than apathy. The Minnesota Twins have long been my favorite team. Major League Baseball has been among my most invested interests for the majority of my life. Because of just thirty owners and their puppet, Opening Day is cancelled with no end in sight. As Manfred stepped up to the podium, made that announcement while laughing, and then suggesting it was a both sides issue (hint: it’s not) emptiness set in. Manfred has done very little to distance himself from the notion that he’s an awful commissioner. Obviously, he’s in a position to represent the interests of the owners, but each opportunity for him to provide a galvanizing rallying cry or momentum, he chomps on his own foot. Manfred comes across like a sleazy businessman with little desire to actually enjoy the sport he oversees. There isn’t a jovial attitude and there’s certainly nothing redeeming about him in connecting with the fans. For months those connected to the league have attempted spewing a stance that players are needed to move things forward. Despite delays, lack of negotiating, and bad faith bargaining, it’s consistently been a blame game from the league with the only intention being the greatest win. Instead, we the fans, now all lose. Opening Day is supposed to be a highlight of Spring. We get through the final days of winter with baseball action in Arizona or Florida. It’s the eight month calendar that creates drama on a daily basis through the lens of a wonderful sport. Not only do we not have that calendar to look forward to at this point, but we also have no clue when Rob Manfred and the league will work towards getting things back on track. I’ll rebound from this; it’s necessary for the union to remain steadfast for change. Baseball will return, maybe in June, or maybe next year, but it will return. I’ll continue to write and enjoy the sport from afar. Right now though, it all feels a bit empty and hollow with one man and one group so carelessly and ruthlessly denying us normalcy on the diamond. Most times it’s hard not to be romantic about baseball, but right now is not most times. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Today, after hours of negotiation early into the morning Tuesday, Major League Baseball presented their best offer. It was formally rejected by the union a half hour prior to the league’s deadline and the lockout continues. The next step would be for Rob Manfred and the league to impose a cancellation of regular season games. At this point, on March 1, 2022, there’s simply not enough of a runway for the season to commence as scheduled. No further talks are scheduled and both sides are set to leave Jupiter, Florida. The players remain divided on what the league deems as fair from a pre-arbitration bonus pool and luxury tax threshold while the league suggests it has made their best offer. Owners no doubt have a monetary value placed on games they’re willing to miss and now we’re likely to see that game of chicken come into play. It was announced that a 12 team postseason had been agreed upon, but without a ratification of the CBA it’s worth wondering if that returns to negotiation. $100 million could be at stake when it comes to expansion of regular season games, and that’s where ownership has the most to gain financially. Players have been bracing for canceled games, and while some can handle the economic impact more than others, it will be worth watching whether the union remains as united as they have been to this point. Look for future bargaining sessions to be on the calendar, but it’s anyone’s guess as to when those take place. After a week of serious and contentious discussions, it would be far from shocking if both sides withdrew from the table for some fresh air. The commissioner will make an address shortly. Regular season games are cancelled: The earliest a deal could come together would be Thursday: The MLBPA responds Here’s some of what MLB sought to add in the final negotiations prior to cancellation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article

Over 17 hours and 13 separate meetings commenced from Monday, February 28 into the early hours of Tuesday, March 1. Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) have made significant progress on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). The deadline to avoid cancellation of regular season games has been pushed to 5pm on Tuesday. A deal looks to be close. Check back often for updates as we have them. Continue to check back as this article will be updated with any new news or updates, or even when the title gets changed to Baseball is Back! ------------------------------------------ Following the 11th discussion of the day, with MLB lead negotiator Dan Halem as the centerpiece for the league, Bob Nightengale has officially sounded the alarm. We have more movement than we’ve had in months, and baseball may soon be back. The players have agreed to an expanded postseason situation that adds two teams, less than the league’s desire for a total of 14. The league has also agreed to a Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) structure similar to the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which sunset following the expiration of that deal. We don’t yet have an announcement of “Play Ball” by Commissioner Rob Manfred, but also are trending away from the cancellation of up to a month’s worth of games that was suggested earlier in the day. We are about to turn the page on February, and Spring Training games have been cancelled, but the hope would be that this is where the tide turns. It appears numbers continue needing to be exchanged regarding the pre-arbitration bonus pool. Something in the $20-$40 million range could make sense with the players conceding on two addition Postseason teams. There's a path forward but no agreed upon figure at this point. No matter what official updates trickle out, or how much is agreed to in principle, the CBA doesn't become legal until ratified. From the league's vantage point that requires "yes" votes from 23 of the 30 owners. Opposition from just eight organizations could hold up the sport. Although the February 28th deadline has past on the East Coast, it's still alive and well everywhere else. Rob Manfred and MLB looks to be desiring a resolution yet tonight. Lots of work being done by both sides following the 42 day waiting period imposed by the league after December 2. No sleep til Brooklyn! Or at least until MLB has a deal done it seems. A 12th meeting took place with four members, including Dick Monfort, from the owners contingent heading over to the union side. Things are progressing, but as Nightengale notes, there's still plenty to iron out. The 12th meeting between the league and players was easily the longest of the night. Lots of moving pieces right now. Is 13 lucky or unlucky? We've reached the next meeting and now the discussion has evolved to bring in rule changes such as shift restrictions. At this point it seems the sides are making these conversations comprehensive. The luxury tax is also rising something like $20 million at this stage, which is a multiple of 20 over what the league proposed in their last deal. Nearing 2am central time, Jeff Passan noted no deal would be coming in the wee hours of the morning. Major League Baseball has pushed back the deadline in which regular season games would be cancelled to 5pm eastern time, March 1. With enough of a framework in place, a deal appears imminent soon. A few more details surrounding the parameters of the current proposal have emerged. The union has also dropped the desire to increase the Super 2 class. Here’s some industry perspective to start off deadline day 2.0. We don’t have a deal yet, but maybe, possibly? The players have bent quite a bit regarding the Super 2 eligibility and that could wind up being a point of contention today. More than rule changes, this has an opportunity to blow things up today. Here's some context on how the expanded postseason would work. It's going to water down regular season competition regardless, but it's good to note that there will be an emphasis put on the winningest records. No in person meetings have taken place between the sides in the first two hours today, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there hasn’t been dialogue. We’re roughly three and a half hours shy of the newly imposed deadline by MLB early this morning. The league continues to push for a 14 team postseason, but this would water down the impact of the regular season. Players don’t want that as it would lessen the incentive to compete through spending in the offseason. The additional two teams are also a future bargaining chip. According to New York Post’s Andrew Marchand the difference in revenue from ESPN comes out to little more than $500k per team. That should be a pretty insignificant amount. The first movement of the day has commenced! The first proposal of the day has happened. Less than three hours until MLB’s new deadline. This is opinion, but the union lowering their ask on the bonus pool at this juncture seems more about gaining additional funds than it does closing the gap. This is a positive step towards resolution in my mind. And now it may all be for nothing? Or posturing? Or tempting how far we can push tiredness? The league may now be done negotiating. Three hours from the deadline…where do we go from here? Certainly sounds like the owners aren’t up for another late night and it’s in the union’s court at this point. Maybe a take it or leave it offer. Less than three hours until Rob Manfred’s newly imposed deadline and all progress from yesterday appears lost. The union may need to stand strong in the face of cancelled games to force action. MLB pitcher Alex Wood couldn’t be more spot on with regards to how the conversation has changed today. Reporters have blitzed towards a deal being likely last night and early into the morning. With the deadline remaining in tact and a “final offer” being presented, it’s an opportunity for the leave to place blame on the players should a bad deal be turned down. Some details on the proposal from the union have emerged. The difference on the minimum salary is negligible at this point, that should not be a sticking point. These points are where the league is at however, and the ball is now in the players court. And now this. Things went south...in a hurry. And now after over a week of meetings in Florida, this is where we are... Stay tuned for more updates as they happen! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook , or email View full article

It’s the most beautiful time of the year! PECOTA projections are out, and they’re bullish on a particular Twins starting pitcher. It’s essential to mention right off the bat: your expectations for Joe Ryan should remain in the third or fourth starter range. He’s thrown a total of 26 ⅔ innings in the majors, and it’s unfair to expect the same production as the first four starts of his career. Even then, there’s plenty of reason to be excited about the 25-year-old, invisiball-throwing vibe machine. Ryan looks ready to step right into the Twins’ rotation, and at this point, he’s likely to start on Opening Day in Chicago. Many are hesitant to put much stock into PECOTA projections from the esteemed crew at Baseball Prospectus. The system projects the seasons of over 1,600 players, so there are bound to be errors. The projections can be wacky, unpredictable, and, yes, extremely exciting. PECOTA projects Ryan to throw 143 innings with a 2.87 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 2022. They peg him for 2.5 WARP, tied for 20th and ahead of José Berríos, Frankie Montas, Freddy Peralta, and Lucas Giolito. DRA- (deserved run average) is a statistic that measures the rate a pitcher expects to give up runs. PECOTA projects Ryan for a better DRA- than Lance Lynn, Sandy Alcantara, and Shohei Ohtani. The system essentially projects Ryan to be a frontline starter in 2022. Pointing out the gaudy projections for Ryan isn’t an attempt to put lipstick on the pig that is the Twins rotation. On the contrary, this is more reason to win in 2022 with actual, impact moves for starting pitching. If the Twins still had Berríos, the outlook would be incredibly different. They don’t, though, and they need to acquire someone on his level to compete in an improving division. Even if Ryan somehow matches these excellent numbers, the rest of the rotation isn’t strong enough to support them. PECOTA also likes Bailey Ober as a solid mid-rotation starter, projecting him for a 3.57 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and a better-than-average DRA- in 124 innings. The Twins have a base to work from, even if it’s not entirely sturdy. Will they add enough to make it matter? What do you think of Ryan’s PECOTA projections? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article

Odorizzi was a fan-favorite during his stint with the Twins, and his spot on the team may make sense now more than ever. The Astros have a glut of young starters, along with Justin Verlander, and Odorizzi would benefit from a consistent rotation spot. The Twins have plenty of those. View full video

Leadership can be incredibly valuable. Among the many deficiencies with the current projected Minnesota Twins pitching staff is a lack of experience, particularly in the rotation. The free agent market was thinned out prior to the MLB lockout, but could the front office persuade either Zack Greinke or Clayton Kershaw to sign? View full video

The Minnesota Twins are in need of starting pitching but the free agent market was thinned out before the lockout. Let's talk about some trade ideas that were tossed out within the last week. What do you think about these ideas for the rotation? Links to the pieces I'm reacting to are below. View full video

Rays ace Tyler Glasnow is set to miss most or all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. When he's healthy, he's one of the most electric starters in the league, with a triple-digits fastball and devastating breaking stuff. A free agent after 2023, could the Twins get an inside track for an extension after a trade? Comment your thoughts. View full video

The Minnesota Twins need a shortstop. Unfortunately, it's a familiar story. Speaking of, former Colorado Rockies' shortstop Trevor Story is still on the open market ... hmm. Let's talk about some of the shortstop options and why I'm not a fan of making plans for prospects. View full video