BoofBonser

My Theoretical Mindset during the week;
The status quo surrounding the Twins all offseason was their stubbornness and inability to commit to any outside assets (in free agency or on the trade block), yet until recently did the Twins finally break that narrative. But… they were in-house pieces. By committing to two sprightly and talented yet unproven stars, have they overplayed their hand on their future plans?
 
The Twins right now are waltzing into what I would define as, a free-agency sweet spot. Where every added contributor would stabilize a liability, and boost their win total, which are at such a premium. The roster right now looks to be somewhere around the ballpark (lame pun not intended), to a potential spot in the postseason. Granted if nothing goes wrong (i.e injuries, supensions, curses) we could be staring towards a roster destined to secure a playoff, and readily prepared to be supplemented during the trade deadline. The added emphasis on a win or two or in the Twins case, blown-save-catastrophes-galore might end up sinking the ship when it comes to contention. If last year's bullpen collapses weren’t enough for you, I would say by far the Twins weakest position group lies in the most erratic, fragile and frail baseball clusters in all of baseball; the relievers.
 
I spoke about this briefly in my last article, but what Keuchel or more importantly in Kimbrel possess is a semblance of stability so unprecedented that the last guy to be a stabilizer for us, is being inducted into our hall of fame. If we focus on Kimbrel in depth, the guy is as rare of a breed your ever going to find in the relief pitching industry. I’m not going to speak about Kimbrel in depth, but what really matters is that they both (Kimbrel and Keuchel) have walked the walks, and might play that kickstarter-trailblazer kinda player to get this steam boat sailing. Somehow the Twins front office has managed to finagle towards a somewhat competitive roster, and despite not committing to any external assets, keeping the books dry of anything, and keeping the payroll at or equal to ≈ 100 million is a remarkable feat, no doubt about it. But is it time for the Twins front office to relent and issue a blockbuster contract? That’s very debatable.
 
Into the Nitty Gritty with Kepler and Polanco
Here’s a basic 101 on how rookie contracts work:
This rookie contract system is a focal point of the Collective Bargaining agreement and is tweaked and polished constantly, but it goes as follows;
 
Typically ameuteur hitters agree to a contract with major league clubs coming out of school, or out of the states globally and major league clubs are given a 5 year window on either promoting the player, or releasing him. That promotion would then start the ticking on his 6-7 year free agency departure clock, and would stay with his team through his prime and peak years on a cheap deal, until he would reach free agency (expectedly after he would be years past his best seasons*). During his 3-4 year seasons, the players earns close to nothing on a athletic player scale (I say this because 500k seems like money heaven to me). If the team elects to let the player stick around, when the player hits his 5-7 year season he can contest for a slight raise, provided if both sides agree to a compromise. Until his 7th or 8th year does the player final get his rights to a free departure, and test the market for his free agency rights.
*there are exception to this (Nelson Cruz etc).
 
We’ve seen this philosophy catch some steam in the present, with several clubs purchasing the rights of players who aren’t “seasoned or proven”, and maybe haven’t even made it to the league in some cases. What this leaves fans to savor is team friendly-contracts sculpted to buyout years of arbitration, for a couple years of free agency. Theoretically, this consumes the prime or peak years from a player, but is it really worth it. Let’s take a look.
 
*Tabulated according to Spotrac


For Kepler and Polanco, we’re seeing a hike in annual pay, over the arbitration years that somewhat amount to as what the players would earn in full amount in free agency. Both Kepler and Polanco have received somewhat mildly-risky contracts. Both have underachieved in their time on the major league spectrum, and in Polanco's case been busted for doping with PEDS. These contracts (5yr, 35 mill & 5yr, 25 mill) aren’t going to hinder or cripple the Twins in the future. What I find to be quite interesting is that the Twins have a healthy and expanding prospect pipeline coursing with talent, and yet they still inclined to purchase the underwhelming services of Kepler and Polanco. According to my fortune predictor (oh boy I’m talented fellow, yeet) these are the scenarios I see turning out. When the Twins finally open the window to a championship pursuit, either…
Polanco and Kepler are shrewd bargains
Or they both continue to lag Twins lineup, and logjam the outfield rotation (with prospects + Cave)
I decided to input Scott Kingery, because I thought his situation with the Phillies is an excellent example of when jumping the gun isn’t as picture perfect as it might seem. His contract is nearly identical in terms with Polanco and Kepler, mainly because they have the same backfire caveats and loopholes in dispatching Kingery once he gets old. Kingery hasn’t developed as rapidly as one would expect his minor league numbers would indicate, and played to the tune of a NEGATIVE W.A.R!!! (-1.5). The Phils thought he would form a dynamite paring with Hoskins and the future skeleton of that team. Instead, Manager Gabe Kapler is juggling at-bats between Maikel Franco and Kingery, who are competing to “win or earn” third base. This just hits me clear in the head as when this doesn’t work as anticipated. Just some added insight….
 
Both of these scenarios have their pros and cons. You might have to shuffle playing time between the chain of prospects and the fitful likes of Kepler, and/or Polanco. In this case you unload Kepler and/or Polanco for equitable return values, and propel prospects to replace them. Or both Kepler and Polanco emerge as building blocks and thrive, and you yield for a established major league chip, and supplement for an immediate push (hopefully sooner rather than later). The time tables are rough and tweakable, but both the former and latter are good problems to have.
 
In my mind the extinction of the concept for paying someone for what they’re worth is truly baffling me. It strikes me as that teams are playing with fire and lottery tickets, and trying to pull a quick on the player/(s). The truth to the matter is they aren’t premising the agreement toward constructive proof but rather on whim, Lady Luck, and canniness. Even with the comprehensive and elaborate analytics (which I’m all for, frankly) I don’t think it’s plausible in the right shape of mind to predict someone future who hasn’t set a baseline for what their ascension might be. For all I know, Kepler could go and revert into a complete shell of himself and morph into the eternal spirit of Nick Punto. That might be a little far-fetched, but the guy hasn’t established himself as any kind of consistent regular. He isn’t a ‘proven’ left handed vs left handed hitter (granted he improved from his abysmal marks from a year ago, but there’s a lot more left to be desired). He could turn into a complete sponge against lefty’s, and be relegated to an exclusive platoon role against righties. He’s an admirable right-fielder whose play is fairly consistent, but nothing out-worldly ala The Buck. Could he be in line for a regression? I guess that’s up to him.
 
Typically young players similar to Kepler and Polanco both experiences growing pains, and excruciatingly painful rough patches, but what usually leaves with people is that semblance of promise and hope that a player instills into a fanbase. Kepler and Polanco are by no means generational cornerstone players, but what Kepler and Polanco possess is that consistency a team as inconsistent as the Twins desperately needs. Every position has been a constantly rotating carousel of prospects, and the Twins decided to shore this up, by agreeing to terms with Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco each on intriguing multi year contract that speak to the mindset of the Falvine Front Office. I guess I’m playing Devil’s Advocate right now, because I’m sputtering trying to unravel their rationale.
 


 
There aren’t many other motives for Kepler &co and Polanco &co not to reject these deal like this. This is guaranteed money your dealing with, and the signals and indicators in this suppressed markets wouldn’t sway them that they would command much more (or any offers at all) in the open market. I wanted to take a closer examination at Kepler’s logic in this, because I find much more faith in Polanco, RF is a much more vital to Target Field, and granted he got the more lucrative contract.
 
In Kepler’s case, in some ways your betting with yourself; do you believe that Kepler would turn into a monster player and demand a lucrative contract, or do you settle with what in turn is an appealing and secure the offered multi year deal. It’s as playing with fire in the Twins perspective, and in light of him settling you could deconstruct this in either two way:
 
1. I’m concerned that Kepler would settle with a buy-low contract like this and is satisfied with staying average
2. Or the Twins got an absolute steal of a player.
 
The downsides and upsides are obviously staring us in the eyes. The guys looks he’s a got plenty of a Major League regular’s tools, but the intangibles are worrisome to me. He looks flustered, and stoic at the plate. His demeanor is “I’m under radar, so don’t notice me”. But he’s got those flashes of phenom and potential like he could rake, on an at bat to at bat basis. He got a great, pretty left handed stroke (if that’s worth anything). During 2018, we saw, provided if he hunkers down and locks in that he could hit lefties and for power. 2018 was the year he exorcised those demons and the knocks of his same handed ineptness, and not to mention he’s an above average right fielder. That’s what scares me locking into a promising yet unproven commodity.
 
I have hunch that Kepler’s in for a breakout, quasi- bounceback campaign. I conjured up 7 imperative objectives, if Kepler wants to exponentially improve, and turns his contrast into a bargain.
Don’t regress
Don’t becomes injured (is that harsh?)
Rake and Clobber
Don’t flail to back-foot breaking ball
Keep Smoking the Ball (Guy is getting better over career)
Keep hitting lefties,
Let development take its course (don’t rush it)
- I literally had this stray though, but what if players get mad at their annual salary and if they’re not getting due compensation, play below their abilities. In this case, does Kepler play to the boundary of his abilities?
 
Just on a side tangent, I stumbled on something interesting when looking through Kepler’s Numbers…..
 




 
I recall times last year that Kepler had his extreme cold spells and fits at the plate, and I wanted to see how much of this was a byproduct of bad luck. wOBA is simply a synthesized linear statistic where singles/walks are considered as a the primary building block, and incrementally scales a hit as for it’s due result. Expected wOBA is as self-explanatory as it sounds, and just express the quality of contact and how it yields to on field results. Their are some flaws to this that might apply to Kepler (for being left handed), but if a player scorches a frozen rope and persists to label it INTO THE SHIFT, xwOBA would flag that as an unlucky hit, even though the entire left side of the infield is just begging for a bunt down the left field line. This is what hinders the stat, and I haven’t found a way to quantify how much this action has tainted Kepler’s stat value. But other than that, the stat has enlightened me with some tell-tale suspicions that Kepler slumps have accentuated because of the fact he is inducing himself into slumps. I added Trout’s statistic because quite honestly, the guy is the poster boy of hitting and is a golden standard benchmark stat. The reason why we don’t see the traditional pronounced periodical slumps in Trout, (IMO) is because Trout has found a way to amplify his stretches of success, and mask the monstrosities of his slumps and skids, which help maintain sparkling wOBA’s. (Or maybe he’s just too good to be bad????)
 
This is an excellent inherent trait to have, because...
It’s a great sign of a confidence booster
It reinforces & enhances your overall stat...➡️ (Solid+Amazing=Really Good)
This all might be baloney, but I find it interesting that Kepler’s more distinct patches of droughts tend to follow the Expected wOBA. The thing is, events like this are very common young hitters, (Heck, in real life too). Kepler rides the Hot-Hand like a wave, but when he hits his lows he virtually touches rock bottom. I just find it intriguing that this kinda-gives us a view to Kepler’s psyche during this plate appearances, to my understanding. Is it that Kepler’s gloom and doom approach at the plate is making that his Expected wOBA mimics and dampens his wOBA? That’s the real question…...
 
I bet my theory will get invalidated, but I think this hints toward some better and consistent productions from Kepler in this upcoming season. Maybe just a little forward thought, the vote of confidence upstairs, in this new contract, encouragement from the staff, and some years under the belt will aid Max in carving-it-up in the Bigs.
 
But if Kepler gets better (which I’m all inclined to believe), and if his performance does ride along an expected course, Kepler’s 8th and 7th year salaries are at complete bargain bottom prices. I also believe to some minuscule or macroscopic level (or really anything in between), that this instills some motivation into players. Disregarding why people rip players who pale in comparison near nothing to the owners, it’s a vote of confidence from the Front Office. It’s not like them handing contracts is routine kinda thing, and it issues sort of closure or something close after all summer people were calling for their collective heads. I do like these contracts, if that’s what you came to read this for, but still believe (no matter how much the PR department iterates it), where Buxton and Sano go, so do the Twins. I do hope success for all these player because they will take the fall if everything crashes and burns. Both Sano and Buxton in my mind aren’t ever going to have a year of this magnitude to prove doubters and/or the FO they were destined for stardom. To make the postseason I think the Journey runs right square through Buxton and Sano cascades, and to qualify to the playoffs I think it’s unequivocally contingent if Sano and Buxton rise to the occasion.
 
This all surmises to probably befuddling you more prior to reading my tyrade/spiel but let’s simplify into simpler terms; if Kepler plays at or near a 4-5 WAR per year,(which is roughly fringe all-star level) this contract is a boon for the Twins. It's a bust if Kepler plays to a 1-3 WAR level (because the Twins have plenty of role players to insert). This also applies to some degree with Polanco.

I sit here on the Wednesday of February the 13th, the same day that pitchers and catchers have reported for the Twins, pretty much stuck in my dorm as the classes on my campus were canceled for the 3rd straight day due to snow. At this point, I actually want to go to class because there is something inside me that craves work of some sort and the amount of MLB The Show and Grand Theft Auto that I have played over the last few days would make any sane human nauseous. The solution, of course, is to humbly offer another article to the Twins Daily powers that be in the hope that they approve of my sacrifice and allow me to post another day.
 
It was brought to my attention the other day that, by xwOBA, the unluckiest hitter in all of MLB in 2018 was Logan Morrison. Let me back that up a little because I’m sure my dad just had an aneurysm trying to read “xwOBA”. Let’s start with the wOBA part before x gives it to ya. wOBA stands for weighted on-base average and it does what slugging and OPS try to do, it calculates the value of a hitter with the understanding, as the opposite of what Thomas Jefferson once proclaimed, that not all hits are created equal. Slugging and OPS attempt this also, but both stats assume that the value of hits is linear, which is to say that OPS believes a homer is exactly twice as valuable as a double or a triple is exactly three times as a good as a single.
 
While OPS thinks this, wOBA understands that this is simply not true and instead calculates the importance of these outcomes with their correct value. If you want to read a piece that goes into more detail about wOBA and how it is calculated, Fangraphs has a great article about it that can be found here and I would highly suggest reading it before moving on in my article. As a quick rule of thumb, an average wOBA is about .320 while an above average wOBA is about .340 and a below average wOBA is .310.
 
But we aren’t just talking about wOBA here, we’re talking about xwOBA! What the hell is that x doing there and what does it signify? Thanks to Statcast data, we can calculate more precisely how much luck is involved in the game. xwOBA only cares about the quality of the contact being made and couldn’t give a rats ass about the actual outcomes of the hits. So a screaming line drive that finds the right fielder's glove may not count for anything during the game, but xwOBA thinks that the guy who hit the ball got unlucky and probably will not continue being unlucky going forward if they are capable of hitting the ball like they currently are. xwOBA specifically uses the term “quality of contact” which encompasses exit velocity along with launch angle to determine how lucky or unlucky a certain hitter was. If you want to read more about it, I have another article for your curious mind that will extend the length of time you spend on my article.
 
Now that all of that is out the way, let’s take a look at what xwOBA says about some choice Twins and their 2018 seasons. I’ll be looking at a handful of the most successful Twins players along with who I have deemed their “brother” or someone who had the same or a very similar 2018 xwOBA as them. Numbers are pulled from Baseball Savant here.
 
 

Nelson Cruz and Aaron Judge


 
Isn’t that a tasty comparison? The defier of father time put up a ridiculous .392 xwOBA in 2018, a number just a hair north of noted destroyer of baseballs, Aaron Judge. Despite putting up a wRC+ that was his lowest since 2014, there should be nothing to worry about for Cruz as he continued to annihilate balls at a ridiculous rate and he should provide some serious production in the middle of a Twins lineup that has more power in 3 spots than any of the mid 2000’s team had in the entire lineup. They might have to start handing out helmets in the left field bleachers for safety reasons.
 
 

Joe Mauer and J.T. Realmuto


 
 
While it is great to see Mauer’s name here, it came with some decent scrolling down the list. Cruz was ranked 7th in MLB by xwOBA, but the next Twin comes in at 56th place and he doesn’t even play for the Twins anymore. Wow, that got really sad, let’s spin this in a more positive light. Mauer’s xwOBA says that the dude got robbed hardcore last year as he only put up a .319 wOBA compared to an xwOBA of .350. An unusual feat mainly because hitters like Mauer are prime candidates to be enemies of xwOBA due to their ability to hit the ball to the opposite field. These more “well-rounded” hitters tend to have lower xwOBA numbers because xwOBA does not account for defensive positioning and at the game level, well-hit balls that xwOBA would like are generally pulled and can be gobbled up consistently by the shift. Although, Mauer was such an extreme opposite field guy that the consistency of his hits actually ended up biting him. Oh yeah, and he was as good as J.T. Realmuto in this category, so go trade for that, Philly.
 

C.J. Cron and Giancarlo Stanton


 
You hear that, Yankees fans? Cron is as good as Stanton, open and shut case. Even though probably just about everyone and their mother forgot that Cron was traded from the Angels to the Rays before the 2018 season, he saw a good amount of success with his new team as he translated his “looks like a guy who can whack the crap out of the ball” skills into “actually is a guy that can whack the crap out of the ball” skills. The Rays DFA’d Cron after the season in an effort to recreate the Corey Dickerson fiasco the year before, which led to Derek Falvey waking up from his slumber immediately and punching the “Get Old Rays 1st Baseman Button” he keeps near his bed. Cron put up a respectable .345 xwOBA in 2018 and looks to continue his success with the Twins into the future.
 

Logan Morrison and Daniel Murphy


 
So far, we have two guys that are no longer on the Twins and two guys who just got here, I don’t know what to make of that. As mentioned before, xwOBA feels pretty bad about Morrison’s 2018 and wants to cheer him up with some Jameson, a high-quality steak, a movie on Netflix, and some decent exit velocity numbers. His xwOBA of .340 is a good .057 higher than what his wOBA actually was. As mentioned before with Mauer, Morrison is a prime case of why these numbers aren’t exactly perfect. We all saw him last year refuse to hit the ball the other way and instead groundout to the 2nd baseman directly into the shift over and over. And while the quality of the contact might have been good, the assumption that his luck would change was false. He probably deserved a little better, but I am really glad that he is off the team now.
 

Jake Cave and Whit Merrifield


 
We have quite an interesting pairing here, like when a high school jock starts dating a band girl. Jake Cave was acquired in an incredibly low profile trade before the season but then forced his way onto the major league team and is now probably in the future plans for the Twins due to his ability to hit the snot out of the ball. Despite a hilariously lopsided 33.0% K percent and a BABIP that would make Christian Yelich blush, Cave’s ability to hit the ball a country mile could hold up and allow for him to grow into a more well-rounded batter. With Whit Merrifield as his xwOBA sidekick, Jake Cave will continue to swing hard and hit hard or not at all.
 

Eddie Rosario and ...Ian Kinsler?


 
For a stat that is called “expected wOBA”, this pairing sure is unexpected. Rosario was easily the most productive Twins hitter in 2018 as he continued to put up solid wRC+ numbers while Kinsler was… not productive at all. Kinsler’s hitting went even farther into the toilet following an already disappointing 2017 year as he put up a wRC+ of 93 in 2017 and followed that up with an 87 wRC+ in 2018. Despite this pretty serious disparity, xwOBA has both guys pegged at a .299 clip that would be consistent for Kinsler but incredibly concerning for Rosario. Also, despite similar numbers in 2017 and 2018 for Rosario, xwOBA was much more of a fan of him in 2017 when they had him pegged at a .334 clip that was more in line with how he actually performed that year.
 
The good news is that there aren’t that many Twins players that look due for regression in 2019 based off their 2018 numbers, but the bad news is that the reason for that is because their xwOBA numbers were poor across the board. Even though some players like Cruz and Kepler should see bumps in their production, using past performance to predicate future success is an inconsistent measurement and let’s be honest, using the eye test is just much easier to do instead. And my eyes are telling me that the Twins offense in 2019 should be pretty tasty.

It is hard to put into words how much Brian Dozier has meant to the Twins organization. It has been a blast watching Brian grow into one of the better power hitters in the league. He has had a bit of a down year, and that is a shame, but that does not take away the joy he has brought to not only Twins fans, but the community as well.
 
Many think of Dozier as the guy who gets upset when teams bunt for a hit in the ninth inning in a blowout like he did in the first series of the year in Baltimore when Chance Sisco did just that. But that is not who Dozier is. He is much more like this story from a few weeks back.
 
He came up at age 25 in 2012 to the Twins while the team was in the midst of a 66-96 season, good for last place in the AL Central as well as the entire American League. That year, Dozier was called up in May to replace Justin Morneau. He’d go onto hit six homers and drive in 33 in 316 at-bats. His OPS was only .603, but that he would make a huge jump from there on.
 
Even with the team continuing to lose, No. 2 had become a feared power hitter in the Twins lineup. From the time he made his debut on May 7, 2012, through 2014, the Twins had a record of just 195-264 and never finished above fourth in the division. Still, Brian improved his homer total from six in 2012 to 18 in 2013 to 23 in 2014. Along with that, his OPS improved to .762 in 2014.
 
Everything all started to come together in 2015. Minnesota started out hot in 2015, and so did Dozier. Heading into June, the Twins had a record of 30-19, and they were 49-40 at the All-Star break, firmly in contention for a playoff spot. During that first half, he gave us Twins fans some unforgettable moments. Dozier, who was in the running for the Final Vote for the All-Star game, hit two walk-off homers in the span of a week. First, he crushed a homer to left field off Baltimore’s Tommy Hunter to beat the Orioles 4-2. Then, he gave Target Field its best moment since Jim Thome’s walk-off in 2010 vs. Chicago. With the Twins trailing 6-1 in the ninth inning against Detroit, it appeared Minnesota was going to fall to 2-9 against the Tigers on the year. Instead, they strung together four hits as well as a walk and a hit batter to cut the Detroit lead to 6-5 with runners on first and second and one out. Detroit closer Joakim Soria hung a curve to Dozier, and the Twins second baseman blasted it off the facing of the upper deck for the improbable win.
 
He fell in the Final Vote to Mike Moustakas of Kansas City, but Dozier wound up going to Cincinnati anyway, replacing Toronto’s Jose Bautista. All he did in his first All-Star game was hit a homer in the eighth inning off Pittsburgh’s Mark Melancon in the American League’s 6-3 win. He was just the second Twins player with a pinch-hit homer in an All-Star game, joining Twins legend Harmon Killebrew. He joined Killebrew and another Twins legend, Kirby Puckett, as the only Twins players to homer in an All-Star game, period.
 
He had a disappointing second half of the season, and the Twins faded a bit. After hitting 19 bombs in the first half of the season, he only hit nine after the break. After the break, his batting average went from .256 down to .236, and his OPS went from the .841 he had in the first half down to .751 at season’s end. Even then, they had a chance to make the playoffs heading into the final series of the season, but Minnesota was outscored 14-3 in a 3-game sweep at the hands of the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals.
 
There was plenty of optimism after that season, but the Twins stumbled to the league’s worst record. But even then, Dozier gave Twins fans a reason to come out to Target Field. The former Southern Miss standout hit 42 bombs in 2016, which set an American League record for homers as a second baseman in one season, surpassing former New York Yankees and Texas Rangers standout Alfonso Soriano. The guy had turned into one of the most feared sluggers in the game. Not bad for somebody who only hit 16 home runs combined in the minors.
 
He had another great year in 2017, helping lead the Twins back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, as he hit .271 with 34 homers and 93 RBI. Dozier also hit a leadoff home run in the Wild Card game against the Yankees.
Yes, he and a number of teammates have had a rough first four months of this season, which is why they’re at the point they are at. Although, he did give us fans one more lasting memory, as he hit a walk-off grand slam off Tampa Bay’s Matt Andriese in the last game before the All-Star break. It is unfortunate that this is the way things had to end because Brian has been such a good player on the field since he came up here and has made an even bigger impact off of it.
 
Whether it was hitting walk-off homers, like the one he hit in Detroit to cap off a big comeback, or if it was just bonding with fans, Brian has given us tons of memories in his seven years here, and we wish you nothing but the best in Los Angeles.
 
Thank you, No. 2!

The Minnesota Twins came into the 2018 Major League Baseball season with postseason aspirations. Coming off of a Wild Card berth a year ago, it was fair to expect this club to challenge the Indians for the American League Central Division title. For a multitude of reasons, things didn't pan out as expected, and that left the club as sellers when it came to the trade deadline. As has often been the case, the front office positioned and executed the endeavor near flawlessly.
 
Having lots of money to spend this offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine bolstered the organization with talent. At the time, all of the acquisitions made a ton of sense, and looked nothing short of great on paper. We know that across the board plenty of players fell flat for Minnesota, and that allowed more shrewd decision making to come into play. Thanks to the short term commitment, and multiple one-year deals handed out, the Twins found themselves with assets able to be moved when their direction took a turn.
 
It's always tough to see a player like Eduardo Escobar leave the organization he broke out in, but the reality is that the Twins maximized his value. Zach Duke and Lance Lynn were set to depart at season's end for nothing, and getting a return helps to stretch their effectiveness for the club into the future. Now a handful of trades in, there's reason to like every one of them.
 
Eduardo Escobar to Arizona for SP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel, and OF Ernie De La Trinidad
 
It's Duran that highlights this package for the Twins. All three prospects are current in Single-A, and given the depth in the Diamondbacks system (or lack thereof), these are three relative lottery tickets. That said, Maciel was highly touted as an International signee and stockpiling some talent that Minnesota may have missed out on when each was available as an amateur is hardly a bad get. Escobar was set to be a free agent at season's end, and now he gets to go be a part of a pennant race. Minnesota could bring him back this offseason (and if they can do so at the right dollar figure, it'd be very appealing), but getting some tangible return for him while they could is a very good move.
 
Ryan Pressly to Houston for SP Jorge Alcala and OF Gilberto Celestino
 
Flipping Pressly stings a bit, as I've been vocal about how good of a pitcher he is for quite some time. In 2018, he truly emerged as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. With another year of team control, it's unfortunate he won't be around to help what should be a competitive Twins team in 2019. That said, the reality is that he's a reliever. With pen arms being fickle, it made sense to flip him for a healthy return at a time when Minnesota had plenty of suitors. Getting a prospect with triple digit velocity in return is a nice piece, and it opens the door for Minnesota to explore some internal options in hops of backfilling Ryan's role.
 
Zach Duke to Seattle for SP Chase De Jong and IF Ryan Costello
 
Here is the first move in which the Twins front office continues to make a one-year deal work for them. Duke was signed for just $2.15 million this offseason and was handed a one-year deal. Having just two months left on his contract and not in a position to provide Minnesota value, the two prospects continue to do so. Although neither piece is a blue chip talent, there's little reason to scoff at the ability to develop and potentially drive major league talent out of players that will be around long after Duke would have left the organization. The Mariners get a lefty killer in return, and Duke's time with the Twins was an effective one.
 
Lance Lynn to New York for 1B Tyler Austin and SP Luis Rijo
 
If you'd ask who among the Twins free agent acquisitions underperformed the most this season, it'd have to be a tossup between Lynn and Logan Morrison. Being able to send the former Cardinals hurler out for a respectable return only highlights the importance of a track record. After missing virtually all of spring training, Lynn has been better since being awful his first month or so. He was striking out batters (and walking them) at career high rates, but there's too much leash there to believe he's cooked. In going to the Yankees, Lynn represents another one-year deal that plays future dividends for the Twins. Austin is out of options, so it would make sense that Minnesota give him ample opportunity to stick down the stretch. Rijo is a lottery ticket that you'd never be wise to turn down.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Like a lot of Twins fans, I think, I’ve been coasting a bit with my fandom. The results on the field have been disappointing.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Buxton16STa9x6600-600x401.jpg
Byron Buxton (photo by SD Buhr)
 
Ervin Santana, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco hadn’t even been on the field much, if at all, during most of the first half of the season.
 
The expected two-team competition for the American League Central Division title quickly became no race at all, with Cleveland outpacing the pack.
 
So, I fell in line with the expectation that the Minnesota front office should and would be sellers at the July non-waiver trade deadline.
 
But a funny thing happens to me when I start to hear so many voices saying, “Sell!” in unison. I start looking for reasons to buy.
 
Yeah, my portfolio took a hit Thursday when Facebook shares dropped almost 20%. But I didn’t sell. I’m holding onto my Facebook stock. In fact, I’m probably going to add to my existing position after letting the dust settle for a few days.
 
I think that’s what the Twins should do, too.
 
No, I don’t mean they should invest in Facebook (though it wouldn’t be the worst investment the Twins have made over the years), I mean they should hold and maybe even buy.
 
When the chorus grew so loud in support of the Twins being a seller at the deadline that there was support for not only trading players with expiring contracts and/or little expectation that they’d be part of the 2019 roster, but also for sending Kyle Gibson and Ryan Pressly packing, I took a step back from the cliff.
 
If so many people were that convinced it was time to not only trade spare parts, but important 2019 cogs in the machinery, I wondered if maybe it’s time to do the opposite.
 
After all, a year ago, the front office gave up and started selling about this time (though it turned out they didn’t have a ton of guys that other teams were interested in buying). As we all know, the Twins overcame that lack of faith, forcing their way into the one-and-done AL Wild Card game.
 
But this is not 2017, obviously.
 
At the end of July a year ago, Minnesota trailed Cleveland by 6 ½ games in AL Central. This year, they trail by 7 after Thursday night’s win over Boston.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/DSC_1128-600x400.jpg
Jorge Polanco (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
Last year, the Royals also stood between the Twins and the top of the Division. Not so this year. If Minnesota doesn’t mount a challenge, Cleveland will stroll to the Division title.
 
A year ago, not only were the Twins well off the pace being set by Cleveland, they were going the wrong direction. They had started the month of July three games above .500, tied for the second AL Wild Card spot and just two games behind the Indians in the Division race. They finished the month tied with Baltimore, 4 ½ games behind the Royals in the race for the second Wild Card and two games behind Seattle and Tampa.
 
Whatever momentum they had was moving them in the wrong direction so, of course, you sell.
 
But this is not 2017.
 
First of all, unlike a season ago, Minnesota will not be contending for an AL Wild Card spot.
 
A year ago, there was one very good AL team in Houston and a lot of mediocrity after that. This year, there are a pair of teams in the East and three in the West that are leaving pretty much everyone else, including the Twins (and Cleveland, for that matter), in the dust.
 
Entering July this season, the Twins at 35-44, were nine games under .500, eight games behind Cleveland in the standings and 15 ½ games back of the second WC spot.
 
That’s not ideal, I grant. They’ve gone 13-9 this month and only managed to trim one game off their deficit to the Division leaders. That being the case, nobody can be blamed for advocating that the Twins replace player surnames with “FOR SALE” on back of most players’ jerseys.
 
Unlike a year ago, however, Minnesota doesn’t need to claw their way through a crowded field in the hopes of earning a single play-in game at Yankee Stadium. They’re chasing one team and, if they should catch them, the reward is at least one full postseason series.
 
And, unlike a year ago, their momentum is moving them in the right direction, notwithstanding last weekend’s debacle in Kansas City.
 
The Twins also will face Cleveland ten times between now and the end of August. And it’s not like Minnesota has been beaten up by the Tribe this season, either. On the contrary. The Twins have won six of the nine games the two teams have completed this year.
 
Everyone seems to think this is the same Cleveland team that went to the World Series a couple years ago. It isn’t. Yes, they have three guys at the top of their batting order that are very good. You want to include Edwin Encarnacion, I’ll let you. But after that? Who are you really afraid of?
 
They have some pitching, yes. But that pitching hasn’t translated into as many wins in July as the Twins have notched and the Twins just added Ervin Santana, who didn’t look too rusty in his season debut this week.
 
Yes, the Minnesota front office could throw in the towel now. It appears that not a lot of fans would blame them. It has been a disappointing year, to this point.
 
They could get what they can for the guys with expiring contracts. Discard Lance Lynn, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Zach Duke, even Joe Mauer if he’s inclined to approve of a deal to a contender. Probably add Jake Odorizzi to the list if you’re not of a mind to offer him arbitration for 2019. Likewise, maybe get someone interested in Santana if you don’t think you’ll pick up his $14 million club option for 2019.
 
Make way for the next round of young talent that’s stewing in Rochester and Chattanooga. Let them get their feet wet in August and September, then be ready to re-engage the battle for AL Central supremacy in 2019.
 
But is this really what we’ve come to? Baseball seasons are just four months long? If you’re a few games out of the top spot in your Division at the end of July, you pack it in and, “wait ‘til next year?”
 
I’m sure the folks running Cleveland’s club are hoping that’s what the Twins will do. If so, they can virtually coast through the final two months and prepare for the postseason.
 
I get that trading some (or all) of those players would potentially add a few pretty decent young prospects. And if the Twins’ farm system was in dire straights without much talent in the pipeline, maybe I’d go along with a fire sale right now. But that is not the case.
 
The Twins have some really good talent at every level of their minor league organization right now. Sure, you always want more because some guys with high ceilings just don’t pan out, but as much as I enjoy watching minor league baseball, let’s not lose sight of the fact that the purpose in all of this is to win at the Major League level.
 
As things stand, the Twins have a rotation of Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Lynn and Odorizzi. It may not be the equal of Cleveland’s, but it ain’t bad.
 
If you think Fernando Romero, Aaron Slegers or Stephen Gonsalves would perform better in the fifth spot than Odorizzi, then make that move. But do it because you think it not only will make your team better in 2019 but will also improve their chances to catch and pass Cleveland this year.
 
Or, here’s a thought – if you think you could improve your rotation, maybe trade FOR a better pitcher (ideally, one with at least another year of control left after this season), rather than selling off the ones you’ve got.
 
And please, just stop the talk about trading Kyle Gibson already. This is not a rebuild. If you really have given up on 2018, fine, but don’t give up on 2019, too.
 
With all of the problems this organization has had finding really good starting pitching, why would you trade a guy just when it looks like he’s becoming a really good starting pitcher and still has a year of team control left?
 
Just because you could get somewhat better prospects in return? They’re still prospects and you’re probably just going to hope that one of them ends up developing into a pitcher as good as Gibson.
 
As a fan base, we’ve been lulled into this never-ending routine that emphasizes acquisition and development of quality minor league talent. That’s all well and good until it takes over the organization’s mentality to the extent that they let a few games’ deficit in the standings in July keep them from even bothering to try to compete through the rest of the season.
 
I say let’s go for it!
 
What are you afraid of? If it doesn't work out, you still have all the quality young talent waiting to fill in where needed next season and so much payroll money coming off the books that you won't be able to figure out how to spend it all.
 
If you don’t take advantage of those 10 head-to-head meetings with Cleveland, there are still likely to be waiver deals to be made before the end of August. No, the returns may not be as good as they would be right now, but I’m pretty satisfied with where the Twins’ farm system sits now. I don’t need more.
 
I don’t want my baseball season to keep being four months long. I want the full six months.
 
I want to see if Santana, Buxton and Sano can overcome their personal setbacks and help turn the Twins into the kind of team nobody wants to have to face in September.
 
I want to see if this team, that was supposed to be a contender, can get some traction and do something to make Cleveland sweat a little bit. Don’t just hand them the Division. Let’s make things interesting for them.
 
That’s what competing is all about, isn’t it?
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

The Twins infield depth took a real hit when it was announced that Jorge Polanco would have to serve an 80-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs. As it stands, every Twins infielder on the Twins 40-man roster is also on the 25-man roster.
 
Again, for these projections I used PECOTA (via Baseball Prospectus), along with ZiPS and Steamer (via Fangraphs) to group with with my personal projections for each player in the Twins infield.
 
Jason Castro, C
 


It’s hard to find a player that has been more consistent than Jason Castro has been over the last four seasons. In each of those seasons Castro has played between 104 and 126 games, hit between 10 and 14 home runs, scored between 38 and 49 runs, had wRC+ between 80 and 93, provided above average defense at catcher, and collected an fWAR between 1.2 and 1.6. This probably explains why the projects for Castro are nearly identical across the board.
 
Mitch Garver, C
 


Mitch Garver had a breakout season in AAA last year and was voted as the Twins 2017 Minor League Hitter of the Year by the Twins Daily staff. Garver has the bat to be a lot more of an offensive weapon than most backup catchers around the league. Garver also provides a quality right-handed bat for the lineup, which sets him up well to work in a platoon with the left-handed hitting Castro.
 
Ehrie Adrianza, INF
 


Before the Polanco suspension, Ehrie Adrianza’s role with the Twins in 2018 was going to be much if the same as it was last year. However, Adrianza will now need to take on a bigger role in the lineup as he will most likely split some time with Eduardo Escobar at short. Given that Adrianza is the better fielder of the two, I would expect to see him in the lineup whenever Kyle Gibson is on the hill to provide a little better infield defense for the groundball pitcher.
 
Brian Dozier, 2B
 


Brian Dozier has stepped up in a big way for the Twins over the last few seasons, earning MVP votes in each of the last three. The projection systems are being a little cautious for Dozier this season, and I am as well. For me, the biggest reason is it is difficult to project a player to have better than a 4.0 fWAR season (which is still a really good year) unless they are one of the top 10-20 players in the game. Let’s hope we are all wrong and Dozier blows these projections out of the water.
 
Eduardo Escobar, SS
 


At the end of 2017, Eduardo Escobar was thrust into the role of full-time third baseman after Miguel Sano went down with an injury, and did he ever take advantage of it. From August 20th on (the day after the Sano injury) Escobar hit 10 home runs and had an OPS of .826. The Twins are hoping Escobar can step up again this year and fill their hole at short.
 
Joe Mauer, 1B/DH
 


After years of struggling with symptoms from a concussion that forced him out from behind the plate, Joe Mauer finally seemed like his old self again last year. If Joe wants to continue his career in Minnesota beyond 2018, he will need another season like that this year. Joe’s improvements defensively at first have been well noted and will make him the primary option to play there over Logan Morrison throughout the season.
 
Logan Morrison, 1B/DH
 


Entering the offseason, Logan Morrison wasn’t anywhere on the Twins radar. However, with the unusual free agency, Morrison’s value plummeted to a point where Derek Falvey and Thad Levine just couldn’t pass him up. In 2017, Morrison tallied 38 home runs, after never hitting more than 23 in any season in his career. While the projection systems rely mostly on numbers that would suggest he should regress this season, I see a player who made a change in his swing that caused the spike in his home run output. This is why I believe that he can repeat that performance again this season.
 
Miguel Sano, 3B
 


Miguel Sano will avoid a suspension to begin the season after assault allegations were made against him this winter. On the field, the Twins are showing faith in Sano’s ability to stay at third, at least in the short term. Offensively, there is no question about Sano’s power, but questions do remain about his ability to stay healthy, and if his supporting numbers were propped up on his .375 BABIP last season.
 
Jorge Polanco, SS
 


Jorge Polanco broke out of his shell over the last two months of 2017, which is what makes his 80-game suspension to start the season all the more disheartening. Polanco is set to come off of his suspension on June 30th, which will be in the middle of a three-game set against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Only time will tell if Polanco’s hot stretch was truly a break-out, or if it was more of a product of a small sample size.

I gave you the first half of my top 10 Twins prospects yesterday, headlined by Kohl Stewart and Wander Javier. Now, it is time to reveal my top five prospects in the organization. Nobody should be surprised by who makes up the final five prospects on this list, but the question is which order will they be in. So, with that being said, here are my top five prospects for the Minnesota Twins.
 
5. Tyler Jay, SP/RP
 
Much like Stewart, Jay is an interesting pitcher as well, albeit for different reasons. First off, Minnesota needs to determine whether it wants the former first round pick as a starter or reliever. Jay was a reliever at Illinois, but the previous regime wanted to convert him into a starter. After not starting one game with the Fort Myers Miracle in 2015, Jay started 13 games for the Twins High-A affiliate last season and went 5-5 with an ERA of 2.84. That earned him a promotion to Chattanooga, where he pitched in five games (two starts) before being shut down the final month of the season. I believe he could be a solid starter, maybe a No. 3 starter or so, but he could be a dominant reliever. People will criticize the pick of a first rounder on a reliever, but I would much rather get a potentially dominant relief pitcher with a top 10 pick than a player who won’t even make it up to MLB. I don’t know what the Twins will do, but Jay in the bullpen could be a real asset to the team and he would then make an appearance at some point this upcoming season. In his three relief appearances with the Lookouts, he allowed one run on three hits in four innings. It will be interesting to see where they want Jay pitching. If it is as a reliever, expect to see him with the Twins this summer.
 
4. Nick Gordon, SS
 
To some people, this might be a little low for Flash Gordon’s son. Maybe it is just me having too high of expectations for him, but it is a bit disappointing that he has not hit .300 in any level of the minors. Granted, he has never had a “bad” year and has hit at least .290 in two of the three years, but it is just a bit concerning to me that he has yet to really dominate a level. One thing he does have going for him is that he is almost always younger than the competition, and that will only help his development. In the Arizona Fall League, Gordon was one of the younger players and slashed .346/.418/.444. It is a small sample size, but hopefully his great play carries over to the season with Chattanooga in his first season at Double-A. He may not be able to stay at short, but only time will tell. I think he will have a season around .300. Hopefully he is able to flash more power as well, as he only has hit five homers in his minor league career thus far.
 
3. Fernando Romero, SP
 
Out of all the starting pitchers in the Twins minor league system, I think Romero is the one pitcher who has a chance to be a real ace. After missing two years due to multiple surgeries, he came back better than ever in 2016. After returning in May, he went 9-3 with an ERA of 1.89 with a WHIP of 0.90 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 90/15. He was promoted to Low-A Fort Myers in June and dominated. The 22-year-old will likely return to Fort Myers to begin 2017, but if he pitches well again, he will move up to Double-A Chattanooga. I think he will be up with the Twins sometime in 2018.
 
2. Stephen Gonsalves, SP
 
After being considered a solid prospect through 2015, he took off in 2016. After going 7-2 in 2015 for Fort Myers, he picked up right where he left off. In 11 starts last season with the Miracle, he went 5-4 with a 2.33 ERA. But he pitched even better after being promoted to Chattanooga. In 13 starts at Double-A, Gonsalves went 8-1 with a 1.82 ERA. However, his walks were a bit concerning with the Lookouts. In 74.1 innings, he had 37 walks. He had five games in which he had at least three walks, including a game in which he allowed seven free passes. He will return to Chattanooga, for at least the first part of this season. If he continues his strong play in April and May, he will be promoted to Rochester. I could see him making his Twins debut in September with strong play with the Red Wings. I don’t think he has the potential of Romero, but I think Gonsalves will be a solid No. 3-4 starter.
 
1. Alex Kirilloff, OF
 
In this year’s Twins prospect handbook, all three of the main contributors picked different players for their No. 1 prospect. That is how close it is at the top. I am going to agree with Jeremy here and have Kirilloff at the top in my Twins prospect list. Last year’s first round pick started out in Elizabethton and knocked the cover off the ball. He struggled in the month of August and he ended up hitting .306 for the season. In the 55 games he played, he hit seven homers, as an 18-year-old. I think he will hit 25+ homers in the major leagues. He will start the season in Iowa with the Kernels, and if he performs there, he may be in Fort Myers by the end of the season. He could end up being a middle of the order slugger for the big league club.
 
To round up the top 10, here it is:
10. Lewin Diaz
9. Adalberto Mejia
8. Travis Blankenhorn
7. Wander Javier
6. Kohl Stewart
5. Tyler Jay
4. Nick Gordon
3. Fernando Romero
2. Stephen Gonsalves
1. Alex Kirilloff