TwinsFanGreg

As we carefully analyze each game of the new season and try to read the tea leaves on each swing of the bat I thought I would provide just a little change of pace and look at another story from baseball history.
 
 
While Civil War general Abner Doubleday is mythologically given the title of the founder of the game of baseball, a myth that has been refuted by nearly every scholar, we should look at baseball and an even more famous General – William Tecumseh Sherman. In his biography by James Lee McDonough we learn the following:
“…a number of friends with whom Cump (Sherman) played a primitive form of baseball, using yarn balls. From time to time the balls were hit into a garden adjoining the playing field, whose owner became irate at his garden being trampled by young me retrieving valls. When the man began confiscating the balls and throwing them into his stove, Sherman and his buddies sought revenge. They filled a ball with gunpowder. Soon the unsuspecting garden owner seized the devilishly prepared thing and cast it into his stove; a fiery explosion rocked the house, leaving the man suffering with burns and damage o his home. The boys, naturally, had waited close by to observe the result of their scheme. Suddenly the angry man burst forth from his house, intent upon chasing down the culprits. He managed to catch the slowest of the boys as they ran.” Sherman being fleet of foot escaped unscathed!
 
The Smithsonian takes the relationship to baseball and the Civil War another step forward with this statement, “The evolving Knickerbocker Code or rules had its origins in metropolitan New York in 1845. Union soldiers, more familiar with the game, introduced others, including Southerners and Westerners to baseball throughout the Civil War, resulting in thousands of soldiers learning the game. Upon returning home, the game spread to friends and neighbors and soon the sport was played in every region of the country, solidifying its title as “The National Pastime." http://americanhistory.si.edu/blog/2012/08/civil-war-baseball.html

Minnesota Twins pitcher Phil Hughes had a rib removed last year to help correct an issue that was causing some major problems. The surgery ended the pitcher's season in July. It was unfortunate that the surgery didn't happen sooner. Statistically speaking.
 
Hughes had some ideas for the rib, which he kept following the surgery. The Twins might have some ideas about Hughes if he can turn things around in 2017. It would include him taking the rib with him, although I don't believe they could use it as a bargaining chip in any trade offers.
 
New decision makers Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have to address the pitching issue that has plagued the organization since the beginning of the decade. The two categories would be starting pitching depth and lack of a pitcher that can actually strike a batter out.
 
How do Hughes and Santana play into this? It's easy, really. They are two veteran pitchers with playoff pitching experience. They've pitched on teams that are the thick of things come October. These things will certainly make them names that will be floated around come trade deadline time.
 
Santana is most likely to hear his name thrown around. He had solid numbers in 2016 and his durability is great for a team that needs a solid number three or, dare I say, number two starter.
 
The number that is key for Santana to keep down is the home runs. He gave up an average of 28 home runs a year between 2009 and 2013. The last three years he's dropped that number to 16. Keep the homers down, the innings pitched and quality starts up and he'll have plenty of suitors.
 
In the case of Hughes, he has to prove that the last two years were more fluke than fact. One stat that stands out is the percentage of 0-2 counts batters faced against Hughes last year. His percentage was a career low 21.6 percent. His career year, 2014, 37.5 percent of batters faced 0-2 counts.
 
This indicates that something changed in the way Hughes was disguising pitchers early on in the at-bat. It also shows that he didn't adjust to the way batters approached him. Hughes does not walk a lot of batters and so he is always going to be around the strike zone. He was a master of keeping batters off balance in '14. Last year he was the batters puppet.
 
Even if Hughes turns things around, he's going to be hard to unload. A 31-year old that is owed $39.6 million of the next three years is not appealing. Santana's contract, he's $27 million over the next two years with a $14 million team option in 2019, is much easier to live with.
 
All of this is great and painfully obvious to Twins fans. Take veterans and trade them to stock up in minors. Throw bodies at the problem. However, we can't just look at these two in the broad spectrum of adding talent by trading talent.
 
How Falvey and Levine handle Hughes and Santana will show us a lot in how they handle other talented veterans. It will also tell us how far away they feel the Twins are from being competitive.
 
You could convince some that the Twins are just a couple pitchers away from being competitive. Okay, a few. Okay, like two people. But, it really doesn't matter what those two people believe. It's what the new guys believe.
 
Is this going to be a slow process and how do these two veterans play into this process?
 
A question that Falvey and Levine will take time to answer.

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
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