Strato Guy

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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12/13/1988: The MLB transactions for the Minnesota Twins had one line: The Twins signed free agent catcher Brian Harper to an one year contract worth $90,000. The Twins were the sixth franchise for Harper who was drafted by the California Angels in the 4th round of the 1977 MLB June Amateur Draft, traded to the Pirates and then the Cardinals who released him on April Fool's 1986, and then signed and released by the Tigers and A's in single year assignments.
 
Harper was an intriguing guy. He hit .353/.403/.653 as a 28 year old in AAA Portland before the Twins brought him up to finish the season with the big club, hitting .295/.344/.428 with 10 walks and 12 strikeouts in 184 plate appearances. Harper became the Twins starting catcher in 1989 and held that post until 1993. His tenure with the Twins included an otherworldly .381/.435/.476 slash line in 26 World Series plate appearances in 1991, the best World Series ever.
 
Fast forward about 30 years: November 25, 2017: The Twins sign 26 year old Willians Astrudillo as a minor league free agent. After a stint in AAA, like Harper, Astrudillo made it to the bigs, where there were a lot of accolades, regarding his low walking and strikeout percentage, and about his lack of being a "three outcome guy". Astudillo's line last season ended up being .355/.371/.516 with a 2.1 BB% and a 3.1 K%. In 1991 Brian Harper ended the season with a 3.0 BB % and a 4.7 K%. Both were about his career average for the Twins.
 
After 1993 strike Harper moved on and ended up his career with a .295/.329/.419 major league line with a 3.9 BB% and a 5.6 K%. Both Harper and Astudillo have had questions about their defensive ability, and like Astudillo Harper had to play other positions (OF, 1B and 3B) before he was established.
 
Harper was an integral part of the Twins 1991 team. Might be the time to let Astudillo be the "Harp" for these Twins...

The Dodgers may win. The Red Sox could see their magic disappear - this is baseball after all, but there are some story lines that I have really liked and wanted to point out. One of which is that talent - not analytics wins games. Sorry Aaron Gleeman, but when we retire APBA and other games and get to the teams and games that count there is much more than probability. So what are my take-aways so far?
 

Relief pitchers can't match great starters. Milwaukee was a fun experiment in defying the tradition of starters and relievers, but in fact their relievers wore out. This over emphasis on Bullpen arms has a draw back because no one can pitch 162 games - sorry Mike Marshall I know you tried. And by the end of the year the accumulated games wear the pitchers down. Did anyone see the same Jeffress in the play-offs that succeeded in the regular season? The key games for the Brewers were when Chacin and Miley started and took care of some innings to take pressure off the pen. The Red Sox Bullpen has been lights out - but Price and Sales took some innings off the board first. The Dodgers got too smart with all its match ups and not only called on Madsen one too many times but shut down Baez when he had the momentum to stop the Sox.
Strikeouts do matter. Look at the Red Sox. Down two strikes they do not give in, they do not go for the big whiff, they put the ball in play and then something happens. Of course it does not work every time, but a strike out is an out - every time. Red Sox players are not without power, but they are also not without speed and excitement. This is a team exuding what the great Rickey Henderson once had. They upset the other team, the pitchers, the catchers, the managers.
The Dodgers have shown in the first two games that you should throw out the book sometimes. They put their good hitters on the bench for match ups that have lesser results. Their formula looks old, although home cooking could fix that.
I really do think that the best teams from each league are playing each other and that is great. While I rooted for the A's and the Brewers, their styles were fun and unconventional, I am still pleased to see the teams with the best stars and the best organizations playing for the championship.

 
 
My last note for the Twins - forget the Kershaw sweepstakes. He is aging and will still want a long term contract that in the end will look like the Pujols deal.

In an era when bullpen has higher profile that starters it is surprising to see a team that prides itself on analytic decisions trade away the pitcher with the most potential and raw stuff to the American League's best team. Yes we got two prospects, but they are still raw and a gamble while Pressly is 29 and in his prime.
 
 
Of course all our pitching gurus must answer for the disparity between his 3.40 Twins ERA (not bad) and his 0.77 Astro ERA (amazing). Or his whip - 1.364 Twins and 0.60 Astros.
 
 
To quote the NYT - "Pressly rarely betrays any signs of emotional turmoil, whether it emanates from a poignant moment or from the stakes of a game heating up. He is a major component in a revamped Astros bullpen for the defending world champions, who had so many fraught moments last October that they had to turn to starting pitchers to close games." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/sports/baseball/astros-red-sox-alcs-ryan-pressly.html?emc=edit_th_181016&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=275511921016
 
 
He generated twice as much WAR in 1/2 as many games with the Astros. "Only three pitchers who threw at least 60 innings this season have had a swing-and-miss rate higher than Pressly: Craig Kimbrel of the Red Sox, Edwin Diaz of Seattle and Josh Hader of Milwaukee, three of baseball’s elite relievers."
 
 
"Pressly is the latest pitcher to experience a renaissance in Houston, which has been at the forefront of baseball’s analytics revolution. Charlie Morton has posted the two best years of his career, Gerrit Cole allowed fewer hits and struck out more than he ever has — leading baseball with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings — and Justin Verlander has rediscovered his Cy Young form at 35. All three were All-Stars this season."
 
 
Yes our FO is gaining an unearned reputation as analytics leaders, but the proof is in the way the roster is constructed and the players develop. So far not so good Now we will seek to build a weak bullpen by hitting the FA market and hoping we find a guy who can make the pen better - a guy like Ryan Pressly.

With this week signifying the last of the 2018 Major League Baseball regular season, we very well could be watching the final games of Joe Mauer's career. Yet to indicate or announce his intentions for 2019, the Minnesota Twins longtime star has compiled quite a resume. Over the course of this season, he's surpassed plenty of the legends and greats before him throughout Twins history. Trying to narrate that tale is one I'd fall short of, but the numbers do some significant justice.
 
Although the meat and potatoes of Joe's career is how he's been a lunch pail type player, that's come to work every day, and simply got the job done. He put together a 7-10 year stretch in which he was on par with Johnny Bench for the title of greatest catcher the game has ever seen. He reinvented himself and became a defensive wizard at first base. He's had ups, and he's had downs. Wherever along the journey you'd like to examine though, the final tallies are nothing short of impressive.
 
Joe is who he has always been, and the living legend isn't ever going to acknowledge his rightful place in Twins Territory. We can do that for him though, simply by using his merits.
.306 career average- 3rd all time for the Twins. Behind Carew and Puckett
1011 runs- 3rd all time for the Twins. Behind Killebrew and Puckett
.388 on-base percentage- 3rd all time for the Twins. Behind Carew and Knoblauch
2,114 hits- 2nd all time for the Twins. Behind only Puckett
599 extra-base hits- 4th all time for the Twins. Behind Killebrew, Puckett, and Hrbek
1,852 games- 2nd all time for the Twins. Behind only Killebrew
3,073 times on base- 1st all time for the Twins.
2009 American League Most Valuable Player
3-time (2008-10) American League Gold Glove Winner- Catcher
5-time (2006, 2008-10, 2013) American League Silver Slugger Winner- Catcher
3-time American League Batting Champion- Only AL C to ever do so. Only C to ever do it 3 times.
6-time (2006, 2008-10, 2012-13) All Star- American League Starting Catcher
2009 Sports Illustrated MLB All-Decade Team
Baseball America Major League Player of the Year (2009)
Career 49.1 fWAR
Career valuation of $306.9MM compared to $218.025MM career earnings
Career .995 Fielding % as a C ranks 8th all time
Career .996 Fielding % as 1B ranks 5th all time
2006-2013 hit .327/.410/.473 with a 139 OPS+
Would be third 1st Overall pick to make Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, joining Ken Griffey Jr. and Chipper Jones.

Selfishly, I hope this isn't the end. I want to see Joe back in 2019 for what should be a competitive season in Twins Territory. Regardless what happens, the list above is otherworldly, and it's been a joy to watch it unfold.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins are now in the final week of their 2018 Major League Baseball season. With a Postseason berth eliminated from reality, the final seven games will be of little significance. Given the opponents coming to Target Field include the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, opportunity to play spoiler isn't present either. That said, these contests remain a proving grounds for players looking to crack the 2019 Opening Day roster.
 
Right now, there's some intrigue as to whether or not we're witnessing the end of Joe Mauer's heralded career with the hometown team. These could be his final days in a major league uniform, and although I believe he'd be of service to the club in 2019, it appears that no decision has been reached at the present time.
 
For the guys that are significantly Mauer's junior, they are still looking to make a final imprint on the organization in hopes of vaulting themselves into a more secure position next spring. While the final week may be somewhat of a slog for the battle tested veterans, no opportunity can be taken for granted when looking to stay at the game's highest level.
 
This season, the Twins have trotted out more than a handful of rookies. Here's a look back at how they've all performed.
 
Mitch Garver - C
 
Somewhat unfortunately for the organization, Garver was turned loose relatively early this year. Instead of being able to serve as Jason Castro's understudy, he was pushed into a starting role after a knee injury ended Jason's season. While Mitch looked raw behind the plate early on, it's been more than apparent that he made strides as the season went on. Working with veterans like Bobby Wilson, and briefly Chris Gimenez, his glove work improved dramatically.
 
On the offensive side of this, his .734 OPS was more than welcomed behind the dish for Minnesota. He was easily the most productive offensive asset as a backstop, and there appears to be some legitimate pop in his stick. Over a full season, he's a likely double-digit longball guy, and he's pushed himself into the conversation for more work next season. It remains to be seen if Minnesota will make changes at catcher, but Garver didn't hurt his positioning at all.
 
Jake Cave - OF
 
Maybe one of the most shrewd moves in the early tenure of the Twins new front office, Jake Cave was acquired as outfield depth from a Yankees system that simply didn't have room for him. With Byron Buxton having a lost year, and Zack Granite falling out of the picture, Cave harnessed the opportunity presented to him.
 
Early on, Cave should've gotten more run than veteran retread Ryan LaMarre, but that didn't stop him from turning heads on a near daily basis. In 85 games this season Cave owns a .771 OPS and has ripped 12 homers. At 25 years old, he's somewhat of an elder rookie, but there's plenty of reason to believe that this is just scratching the surface. He's easily Minnesota's 4th outfielder to open up 2019, and it's been apparent than he can start for stretches when need be as well.
 
Willians Astudillo - UT
 
After over 630 minor league games, Astudillo finally graced Major League Baseball with his presence. The folk tale of a chubby catcher than picked off runners without looking and never struck out came to the big leagues and initially started as an outfielder, third basemen, and second basemen. Now settled into a utility role, and backup catcher, Astudillo has seen regular run down the stretch.
 
It's just a 23 game sample size, but the .877 OPS is certainly eye opening. It's hard to imagine Minnesota carrying three catches on Opening Day next season, but there's worse ways to use a 40 man roster spot early on in November. This could very well end up being the last we hear of Astudillo, or he could continue to be an out-of-nowhere spark for a Twins team eyeing the Postseason a year from now.
 
Fernando Romero - SP
 
First it was Jose Berrios, and then it was Fernando Romero. When it came to Twins starting pitching prospects, those were the cream of the crop. Romero's electric fastball has pushed him into the conversation of a true ace, and he looked the part in small bursts this season.
 
The numbers themselves are all unremarkable, and he didn't light Triple-A on fire after returning. That said, the 55.2 IP in the majors as a 23 year old should prove invaluable when setting him up for future success. I'd imagine the Twins front office will be looking to upgrade the rotation again this winter, and that likely keeps Fernando at Rochester on Opening Day, As a first man up however, that's a heck of an arm to turn to.
 
The Best of the Rest- Zack Littell, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, and Adnrew Vasquez
 
None of these guys got much time to really cement any sort of significant expectations for the year ahead. Littell, Gonsalves, and Stewart should all open 2019 in the Triple-A rotation, and getting a look at big league talent could do wonders for their offseason preparation. While none of them have dominant stuff, honing in on command and pitchability should continue to remain a key focus for them. Again noting the Twins depth, there's at least one capable big league starter in this trio, and Minnesota having them to turn to next season isn't a bad thing at all.
 
Vasquez was the lone rookie to get a relief chance this season. Working just 2.0 IP despite entering six games, manager Paul Molitor obviously displayed a short leash. Over such a small sample size you can't draw any definitive conclusions, but it's more than apparent that the meteoric rise from High-A to start the year was impressive. At every level, Vasquez posted massive strikeout totals and tended to keep his walks in check. If he can replicate a portion of that for the Twins, they'll have developed a nice pen piece.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

After recently writing a piece at Twins Daily about the Twins doing the unthinkable and playing the service time game with Byron Buxton, Thad Levine came out and said that's exactly what's going to take place. Minnesota's horrible "This is how we baseball" has been mocked all season long, thanks to lackluster performance and confusing decisions, but I really didn't expect something to take the cake in September.
 
I have been quite vocal about my support of the Twins new front office. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had a stellar offseasons. They've acquired some very shrewd talent in trades, and they've helped to infuse an organization with new trains of thought. Where I've disagreed, also vocally, has been on the handling of in season roster decisions. Everything from Ryan LaMarre playing in 40 meaningful games, to Matt Belisle being valued for leadership and throwing out ability, to Paul Molitor still looking like a fish out of water when it comes to any form of strategy. All of those situations are trumped by this Buxton decision however.
 
Thad Levine attempted to prepare us for this self-sabotage by suggesting that Byron was still "playing through" thinks, and Molitor was non-committal when it came to his September plan. When Darren Wolfson dropped the bomb officially though, no amount of preparation helped to ease the lunacy.
 
Although Levine tried to gray out his obvious admission of guilt when it came to service time manipulation, his quote to Mike Berardino was all that needed to be said, "I think part of our jobs is we’re supposed to be responsible to factoring service time into every decision we make. ... We wouldn’t be doing our jobs if we weren’t at least aware of service-time impacts on decisions we make."
 
So, now that there's finality to this ridiculous move front the front office, here's shooting down every sensible retort coming out of Twins Territory:
 
Manipulating service time makes sense, the Cubs did it with Kris Bryant and the Blue Jays are currently doing so with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
 
In and of itself, nothing about the above situation is wrong. Garnering extra service time from your elite prospects is something every franchise should look to stretch out. However, comparing Buxton to those situations is one that suggests a lack of understanding surrounding contracts and how baseball development takes places. Uber-prospects having service time manipulated takes place BEFORE they debut at the big league level. Whether trying to stretch out another year of arbitration or avoid Super 2 status, it's in or before major league debuts that this stuff takes place. Byron Buxton was an uber-prospect, but he's currently 300-plus games into his big league career. You aren't manipulating in hopes of what could be coming at this point.
 
Buxton is actually hurt, and Minnesota wants him to start 2019 healthy.
 
That's a really convenient avenue for a franchise to take after Buxton missed a large portion of the 2018 season because the Twins didn't care. After breaking his foot, the Twins needed their Platinum Glove winner back so badly that they allowed him to play in 17 games despite an inability to swing without pain. On top of that, Buxton still being hurt hasn't shown up in the box score at Rochester. He owned a .996 OPS since his activation following the wrist injury, and was being asked to play on nearly a nightly basis. Unless there's some injury that occurs when crossing state lines, merit is nowhere to be found on this one.
 
Has Buxton actually earned anything? He owns the 3rd lowest OPS among MLB hitters with 90 PAs in 2018, and had just a .787 OPS in 35 games for Rochester.
 
Defining whether or not a player has earned or is owed something is likely a reflection of personal preference. From this vantage point though, healthy players play, and the best ones get the most run. Buxton is an elite outfielder, and is no doubt one of the most important pieces to the Minnesota lineup. He was awful to start the year, and then was hurt for a significant portion of the rest. With a month left to go, allowing a guy to catch up with as many imperative at bats as possible seems like common sense. Sometimes though, those things aren't so common.
 
Getting another year of team control for Byron in 2022 is more important than a month's worth of ABs during a lost season.
 
Here's another one that has real merit when viewing the sentiment in a vacuum. Yes, when Buxton is a superstar in all facets of the game in 2022, it'd be great for Minnesota to have contractual flexibility with their player. Unfortunately, the thought that a guy with 300-plus games under his belt needs a reset, has to get going at Triple-A, and isn't worthy of MLB at bats in September doesn't jive with said player being a superstar. In short, if you're worried about how good Buxton is in 2022, then you should absolutely be all in on him being provided every avenue for development in the here and now. Contradiction doesn't get to be separated for the purpose of sensibility.
 
On top of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine making such an error in judgement, they've continued to double-down with the poor public disseminations. Levine suggested that Byron is still very much a part of the Twins future, and the front office hopes to "make amends" with him soon. It's very true that money talks and a hefty arbitration raise could do wonders for smoothing things over. It's also entirely plausible that Buxton laughs at the thought that the organization is again suddenly looking out for his best interested after entirely screwing him over.
 
Then there's the manager, Paul Molitor. When addressing the media prior to their game on September 2nd, Molitor suggested it isn't a given that Buxton is the 2019 centerfielder for the Twins. He went on to note lots of competition and a bit more political jargon. Maybe Molitor forgot that this is the reigning Platinum Glove winner, and the best defensive centerfielder in baseball. Jake Cave has been a great addition to Minnesota's stable, but he's not supplanting Byron's future. This also reverts back to the contradictory suggestion that 2022 is an important year of team control, despite a lack of belief in 2019 and beyond.
 
With Rochester having two games left on their schedule, the resident major leaguer packed up his bags and began his offseason. Byron has become the face of public ridicule for a decision derived from a poor front office decision. He's not bailing on anyone, it isn't a "me first" mentality, and questioning his team attitude is shortsighted. His bosses left him out to dry, and then went on allowing him to twist in the wind as the fruits of their failure come to light.
 
I'd imagine that Buxton's agents have made calls to the front office already. MLB Players Association Executive Director Tony Clark should be helping Byron to draft a grievance as we speak. This isn't a decision that can come down without recourse, and siding with billionaire owners never should sit right with millionaire players.
At the end of the day, the hope should still be that Byron Buxton turns into the superstar his prospect status alluded to. While that chapter is yet to be written, there's going to need to be a significant amount of relationship capital built back up for the player to trust an organization that no longer looked out for his best interests.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

*Disclaimer* I wrote this a week or so ago, and it seems Dozier may be heating up. But my attempt at analysis still applies .
 
I know at this point most of you are thinking: who cares why Brian Dozier is struggling? We are moving on from him anyway. While this could be true, I am fascinated by diving into why player results change (positively or negatively) drastically from year to year. So, why did Brian Dozier go from a solid consistent power hitter to struggling this year? It may not be as obvious as you think.
 
“Barreling it Up”
 
When a player’s numbers are down, you expect one of two things: 1) the player is striking out more, or 2) he is making worse contact. In Dozier’s case, it’s the latter. In fact, his strikeout rate is actually down. But we’ll get to that later. Statcast shows Brian’s average exit velocity this year is 86.9 MPH. That is down from an average of 87.5 MPH in both 2017 and 2016. This may not seem like much, but when you look at his “Barrels/Plate Appearance” there is a significant drop this year (2018 – 3.7, 2017 – 5.5, 2016 – 5.8). If you want to learn more about what a “barrel” is and how it’s measured, check out this article. Another key measure here, especially for power hitters, is the average “hard hit” rate. A hard hit is considered to have an exit velocity of over 95 MPH. In 2018, Dozier’s hard hit percentage is 27.8%, compared to 34.5% in 2017, and 36.2% in 2016.
 
Hypothesizing Possible Causes
 
This is the part of the post when I act like James Rowson and take analytical guesses at why a MLB player is struggling at the plate. The most obvious place to start is to determine whether pitchers around the league have started to pitch Dozier differently, thus creating problems for him at the plate. But, when you look at both pitch type and location, I don’t see a major difference. Look at the table below via Fangraphs with pitch type %’s to Dozier over the last few years:
 


 
 
 
As you can see, the only considerable deviation from his career average is he has getting more sliders (SL) in 2018. Sometimes cut fastballs (FC) and sliders merge together in pitch type, so this could account for the adjustment.
 
Next, I looked at whether pitchers are attacking Dozier in different locations than years past. Take the heat maps against Dozier below from 2017 (first) and 2018 (second):
 
 
 




 
 
Again, pitchers are attacking Dozier almost identically as they did in 2017 (down and away, like most hitters). At this point, I turned to Dozier’s actions for the answer.
 
The Approach
 
You could look at some of Dozier’s 2018 numbers and think his hitting is becoming more efficient. For example, his strikeout rate is down to 18.6% this season from 20% the last two summers. Naturally following that, his plate discipline has improved. His chase rate is down to 22.2% in 2018 from 23.4% in 2017, and 29.1% in 2016. But, if you look deeper, you start to realize his overall swing rate is down from the past couple seasons. Look at his swing % heat maps from 2017 (first) and 2018 (second) below:
 




 
My impression of the change is this: Dozier is becoming pickier with his pitch selection. Notice in the 2018 chart the red zones are much more concentrated in the middle part of the zone. In 2017, there is a wider distribution of swing % prevalence. In other words, Dozier was much more aggressive in 2017 with his pitch selection, swinging at more pitches outside the middle.
 
Furthermore, Dozier is seeing more pitches at the plate than in years past. In 2018, he is seeing an average of 4.10 pitchers/plate appearance. Compare that to 4.03 pitches/PA in both 2016 and 2017.
 
I know I miss the days watching Dozier hammer the first heater he sees. Maybe there are other contributing factors that I am missing, but I think an approach adjustment could benefit Brian as much as anything else. It also could be he enjoys hitting first in the lineup to attack the pitcher just trying to establish his fastball. Even though Dozier will most likely be gone after this season, I would still like to see him do well in the second half. He deserves it.

Today, Sam Miller at ESPN wrote that the Strikeout rate in baseball is going up for the 14th year in a row. Last year pitchers struck out 8.2 batters per nine and this year it is 8.6 so far. The first question is why don't batters care? Second question is - how do we compare strikeout rates now with past pitching performances and careers - although Nolan Ryan is not only secure, his record means more because of when he set it.
 
A side note is the fact that starting pitcher strikeout rates is up and relief is down. Why. I suspect it is because they now have so many relief pitchers on every squad that there are bound to be some mediocre pitchers in the bullpen - look at our bullpen and then imagine the bullpens on poor teams!
 
Next I read an article by Jerry Crasnick on the path to 3000 hits by Albert Pujols. Pujols has never struck out more than 93 times a year and he also has over 600 homeruns. In the article Pujols states "Some guys in this league think the strikeout is overrated." "Its something in the game I really don't like. If you put the ball in play you give yourself a chance to put some pressure on the defense, and maybe they can make a mistake and make an error. If its two outs you can start a rally. If you strike out, you don't have a chance."
 
All I can say is AMEN. Imagine Buxton dropping his K rate in half and having a chance for an infield single every time he does, or causing an error because the fielder is in a hurry because of his speed. Imagine Sano dropping his K rate in half which would still be high, but he might not leave so many on base or kill so many innings.
 
Baseball is all about trends. Right now Ks are in and I am not pleased.