bcs4

It's a weighted calculation. By definition it manipulates by including or not including selected statistics and their uses them in a way that is based on the designer's opinion. It doesn't take parks, schedule, defense, league, surface and many other factors into account that would all have a significant impact on projection.

Career BAPIP isn't a valid comparison because it's an average. I might consider a BAPIP trend over the past couple of years. Regardless, Gibson's BAPIP has been nowhere near Odorizzi's,

There are many teams that could have paid more. I think you were even saying that the Twins could have gone higher.

BAPIP assumes that every struck ball is equally fieldable. I don't think there is a good basis for that in BAPIP.

Just saying that every transaction could be degraded for the same reason that you gave. Why didn't some other team give more for Darvish? If some other team beat their offer, wouldn't they question his value simply because no other team beat their offer?

That doesn't explain the BA or WHIP. My big concern with Odorizzi is innings. I know he was on the DL with a back strain, but I don't think it was very long. I wonder why he didn't have more innings?

If he stays healthy I think he could be, especially when you consider his age. I think he'll end up 3B.

Shouldn't the Cubs have the same concern with Darvish?

Those numbers show that they're similar, but I don't think Gibson is trending as well because he's had big problems over the last 2 years. I think I could selectively pick stats on most 3,4 or 5 starters and show that one is better than the other. For instance compare ERA, WHIP and K9. The biggest problem with Gibson is mental. I don't know if Odorizzi has mental problems, but if he does, I doubt they're as big as Gibson's. If Gibson could fix that I think he'd be a pretty good pitcher, but he hasn't shown any sign of that. Right now, I'd much rather have Odorizzi.

This is weird. On paper I'm having a hard time thinking of a better Twins trade based on current value. This looks like a big improvement when compared to last years SPs. He's a fly ball pitcher, and the Twins have a very good defense in the OF. I simply can't believe that the Rays couldn't have gotten more for him from MLB teams, probably even good pitching prospects. Did the Twins blackmail Tampa Bay's management?

Wow.

I don't think Santana will be ready to pitch in May, and when he is, I'm afraid he'll be over 4 for the year. If that's true, they're not likely to keep the team ERA close to where it was, even if the relievers drop their ERAs by .5. The only pitcher on the staff that I see helping keep the numbers close to what they were last year is Gibson. I wouldn't bet on him for anything. I think his problems are mental, and that's hard to fix. Even with a healthy Santana, the Twins are a marginal team. I doubt they'd win a wild card this year because I don't think the top teams are going to win as many games as they did last year. They need a pretty substantial drop in ERA to improve much. The other thing is that some of these guys are going to get hurt. I think we need 2 good pitchers to be competitive. For what they were offering Darvish, they should be fairly close to getting both Lynn and Cobb unless other teams run up prices because it's a pretty weak year for SP FAs. The Twins won't do it, but they need both. They won't compete unless they come up with substantially more than what they've got.

Questions: 1: Is the FIP shown in the comparison above for Archer and another pitcher (sorry, I forget who) a calculation for the following year, or based on current year numbers for that year? Same question for ERA. 2: Is the differential between the 2 calculated by adding the total of the ERA and FIP and then dividing by the number of years shown? Any help would sure be appreciated. Thanks

Yes, I said that I had misread the Phillies position, and also mentioned that that they were dropping a bunch of salary. I understand that now, thanks!

Yes, I see that now. They've got a lot of salary dropping off in the next couple of years.

I saw him too. There are really quite a few, but it seems that there's really no one to trade for. Most marginal teams would be losing their 1 or 2 pitcher, or they have excellent farm systems, or they have more money to spend. Just looking at Tampa Bay, I don't really see much possibility there because they have a strong system, and it's pretty likely want excellent pitching prospects most - the thing we probably aren't willing to give much of. I don't see that much need for the rest of what we've got to trade other than their seeming interest in Keppler.

Everything is for sale, even Berrios. I think I'm misreading the Phillies position.

So, pretty much they could kinda pay cash is if they took a big chunk of dead salary payroll from the other team and release any that they didn't want. I get it.

Ahhh. I understand now. Thanks for the info!

Well, yes, unless they can't by some restriction. How would that be different from Darvish?

Not if they gave them $60 to $100 mil over 3 or 4 years. Maybe I'm missing something, is there a restriction on teams paying that much in a trade?

So you don't think they'd be interested because they didn't draft him in 2014?

Isn't every team? Their payroll history doesn't seem to show that trend. What are you seeing?

Dang, no sign and trade? I didn't know that. I suppose it makes sense for them to buy their own pitcher anyway. Then give them $60 -$100 mil and some prospects depending on the cash amount?

I'd love to have Archer, but just glancing down SP numbers, hows about Aaron Nola? The Phillies stink, so I'd imagine that they have some needs. On second thought, with their record, I KNOW they have lots of needs. Says they're looking for a veteran starter (my interpretation: "innings eater", but I could be wrong), but there are plenty of those guys around. Maybe sign some dud for them and then trade the dud + others for Nola. I dunno much about the guy or the Phils.. Just an idea. Any other candidates that you can see?