tlkriens

So what does a full Buxton season look like? Where would it rank among the great seasons in Twins history. Well, lets speculate and calculate what that might look like.

Every mention you see of Byron Buxton's transformation at the plate is inevitably followed by, "If he can just stay healthy." After years of struggles with the bat, it appears that Buxton has finally figured it out offensively, bringing the talent he showed in the minors now to the majors and what made him the top prospect in baseball. He was on pace for a historic 2021 season before a variety of injuries limited Buxton to just 61 games. Still, his .306/.358/.647 slash line from last year with a 171 OPS+ leaves fans hopefully that this is the year that Buxton can play 150 games+. If he can, Buxton will no doubt be in the MVP discussion and the Twins should be in the thick of a playoff spot. So what does a full Buxton season look like? Where would it rank among the great seasons in Twins history. Well, lets speculate and calculate what that might look like. Single-Season Twins Records WAR - Rod Carew, 1977 - 9.7 Based on Baseball Reference WAR, this seems like the most likely team record to fall if Buxton stays healthy. He put up 4.5 WAR last season in just a third of a season (61 games). Over a full season, with the defense and base running, it seems possible that Buxton could have a 10 WAR season. How rare is that? Only 3 players have had a 10 WAR season over the past 20 years; Mookie Betts (2018), Mike Trout (2012 and 2016) and Barry Bonds (2002 and 2004). Going back further, there have only been 24 individual 10 WAR seasons since 1960 among 13 different players. 150 games of Bryon Buxton in 2022 would be awfully close. Slugging Percentage - Nelson Cruz, 2019 - .639 Buxton had a .647 SLG last season in 235 at-bats compared to Nelson Cruz, who put up a franchise record .639 SLG in 2019 in 454 at-bats over 120 games at DH. Cruz obliterated the previous SLG record of Harmon Killebrew of .606 from 1961. Can Buxton sustain that power over a full season. His home run power has finally developed, hitting HR's in three straight at-bats this past weekend vs. Seattle. Given his speed, singles are stretched into doubles and triples??? may not be there. Why? I have heard it said that Buxton already has enough speed to score from second base on essentially any ball hit to the outfield, so why gamble for a triple? Buxton had 19 HR's and 22 doubles last year, but not a single triple. On-Base Plus Slugging - Nelson Cruz, 2019 - .1.031 The SLG% record and OPS will be close and tied together. Cruz's 2019 was one of the greatest offensive season in Twins history and may have gone under the radar somehow. Buxton's OPS last year was 1.067, so he is certainly capable of putting together similar numbers over at least a 60 game stretch. Defensive WAR - Kirby Puckett, 1984 - 3.3 Buxton had a 1.2 dWAR season last year and put up a career-high of 2.6 dWAR in his 140 game, 2017 season. Runs Scored - Chuck Knoblauch, 140 - 1996 This one may be tough, but second place (Rod Carew, 128 runs in 1977) may be in play. If Buxton can reach base at around a 35 percent clip and have 550 plate appearances, that equates to 192 times on base. With All-Stars Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa hitting behind Buxton, this one may be close. In 1996, Knoblauch reached base 197 times via hits, 98 times with walks and 19 times after being hit by a pitch. That totals 314 times, which is incredible. Total Bases - Tony Oliva, 374 - 1964 Buxton had 152 total bases last season in 61 games. Over 150 games, that comes out to 373 total bases. Buxton already has 16 total bases in just four games this season to lead MLB. Home Runs - Harmon Killebrew, 49 - 1964/1969 Only three players in Twins history have had a 40 home run season; Harmon Killebrew (7X), Brian Dozier (42 in 2016) and Nelson Cruz (41 in 2019). Buxton's career high in HR's was last year with 19. At the rate Buxton has hit HR's the past few seasons, a 30 HR season should be attainable and 40 isn't out of the question. OPS+ - Rod Carew, 178 - 1977 Buxton OPS+ last season was 171. In 1977, Carew's OPS was 1.019. When factoring in the era, Buxton will likely need an OPS near 1.100 to achieve the same. Regardless of what records Buxton sets or doesn't set this season, it was been a fun start to the season for the Twins center fielder. We may finally get what every Twins and baseball fan has been wanting. A full season of health for Byron Buxton.

And de Leon has had an injury riddled career.

Here's another question. What free agents have you wanted the Twins to sign through the years, if you even remember? How have those players done? Just because you give someone a big money contract, it doesn't mean the player is automatically going to deliver.

Pineda was initially tagged with an 80-game ban—standard procedure for first-time offenders—but an appeal brought that number down to 60 after providing evidence that the substance in Pineda’s system was not used as a masking agent for PEDs. He will miss the first 39 games next season. He probably would have started four more games this season.

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1170400739769901057 At the rate Pineda was going, he should have been the Game 1 starter in the playoffs. Now, not so much.

Twins are 44-16 vs. sub .500 teams. The best record in baseball. I think that's important. 26 games of the final 44 fall into that category., not counting four vs. Texas. Indians have 19 of those games.

Roenis Elías was traded from Seattle to Washington last week and was also just put on the IL. It has happen before and it happen last week.

Did the Twins get the best RP at the deadline? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/twins-get-best-reliever-traded-at-deadline/

In this scenario, Thorpe is coming in before Romo, Dyson and Rogers? OK. He did give up one run in 2 2/3 inning last week to the Yankees. There are worse options.

Rogers Romo Harper Thorpe I feel confident in those guys. I feel ok about Duffey. Not a fan of May, but hopefully he can turn it around. They still have two spots on the 40 man roster to fill.

Three games, but who's counting?

If Washington was willing to trade Scherzer, would/should the Twins give up Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff as the centerpieces of the trade? I would.

Mike Minor from Texas might be the best starter out there at the deadline.

Plenty of good, elite RP to sign if they want to spend. Andrew Miller Adam Ottovino Joe Kelly Kelvin Herrera Zach Britton David Robertson Joakim Soria Cody Allen Brad Brach Justin Wilson Jesse Chavez So who is the odd man out if they go OF? It won't be Rosario. Make or break year for Kepler. Who knows with Buxton. Brent Rooker will be up no later than 2020 to fill a 1B/DH/OF spot. Alex Kirilloff will be up in 2020 too, so I think they have OF covered for the future.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html Some interesting guesses here. Three big ones for the Twins Marwin Gonzalez – Twins. Four years, $36MM Jeurys Familia – Twins. Three years, $33MM Nelson Cruz – Twins. Two years, $30MM Would be an impressive haul for sure, for a not too bad $100 million.

Would you rather have Littell and Enns or 10 starts of Garcia?

I think Gonsalves should be up now. Realistically, I see no reason why we shouldn't see him next year. He will be over 500 minor league innings at the end of this season. I feel like that's plenty.

We had an interesting discussion this week on should Johan Santana be in the Hall of Fame. Starts around 28 minutes in. http://www.podcasts.com/the-20-80-baseball-podcast-84e48dbee/episode/The-20-80-Baseball-Podcast-Week-3-April-17-23-1af8

Good 20 minute conversation with Tim Kurkjian this afternoon. We also asked him his opinion on Buxton, Sano and Berrios. https://tinyurl.com/mgxvfut https://tinyurl.com/mhuo4dy

New season so I'm trying out a new baseball podcast. We did a National League preview last week. The American League preview will be posted this weekend. We had Rob Neyer on the show yesterday and have Tim Kirkjian coming on this Friday. Let me know what you think. itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-20-80-baseball-podcast/id1210262129 https://twitter.com/20_80Podcast/with_replies

The last time the Twins scored at least 10 runs in 3 straight games was July 25-27, 2010 vs. Baltimore and Kansas City

Ricky Nolasco has a 5.41 ERA in 311 innings with the Twins. 2nd highest ERA in team history, minimum 300 innings. Pat Mahomes, 5.82 ERA.

Baseball Reference and their Play Index along with their draft history search.

There have been 43 pitchers that have started at least 10 games for the Twins since 2000. 13 were signed as free agents (30.2%) 12 were drafted (27.9%) 9 were traded as minor leaguers to the Twins (20.9%) 6 were traded as major leaguers to the Twins (13.9%) 1 International signing (2.3%) 1 Rule 5 pick (2.3%) 1 off waivers (2.3%) Now to see how that compares to the rest of the league.