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There haven't been any exhibition games played yet, but all teams are in Spring Training and there aren't a bunch of free agents left to be signed. The Twins hope to bounce back from consecutive injury-scarred disappointing seasons and make the postseason. Here is my prediction for the 26-man roster that will play Opening Day in Kansas City on March 30th:
Starting pitchers (5): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. All five acquired by trade from other organizations. All but Ryan have injury concerns. First alternate starter figures is to Bailey Ober, with Louis Varland an Simeon Woods Richardson also waiting in the wings.
Bullpen (8): Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar.  Alcala missed almost all of 2022 and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to contribute. The choices here for the last two spots in the 'pen are Moran (mostly effective last year with the Twins, less so in AAA) and Henriquez, who had a cup of coffee with the Twins after compiling less than dominant numbers in St. Paul. The choice of Henriquez is a pick to provide multiple inning outings from a bullpen member. Moran looks like he could take a step forward and be a late-inning arm, but he's not established. The last two cut (and two most likely to make the club) in my prediction are Trevor Megill and Danny Coulombe. Pitchers with options in the 'pen will most likely be up and down several times--that would include Megill, Henriquez and Moran and perhaps Alcala. 
Catcher (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. Really no competition here. The questions going forward are how will playing time be split up and if either Vazquez or Jeffers spends time as a DH. The Twins have three AAA catchers with major league experience--Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco.
Infield (6): Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Jorge Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano. There are injury questions around both Polanco and Kirilloff. If either one is placed on the Injured List, Nick Gordon and perhaps Joey Gallo might get some infield time. Barring injury, it would be huge upset for someone else to make the team at the expense of the six infielders listed.
Outfield (5): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor. Gallo and Gordon might see some time in the infield. Buxton is coming off knee surgery and may be built up slowly this year. There has been much speculation about Kepler's future with the Twins, but he's still here. Trevor Larnach (also coming off an injury) will probably have the opportunity to play himself onto the team. If there is a disabling position player injury in Spring Training, I would think Larnach makes the club as a DH/corner outfielder. Also in the mix is Matt Wallner, who made his big league debut last year in September. 
There is a significant amount of change from last year. I am predicting that five players will make their Twins'  debut in Kansas City. There will be injuries and many more players will see time with the major league club. As many have commented, there is depth in the rotation and among the position players. There will be injuries and the depth will be tested at some points through the season. A lot of players will get a chance to show their skills before the season is over. 
There aren't many surprises listed in these predictions. Personally, I think that a nearly set roster is a good thing. I can't wait for the games to start and see what this group of players can do.

Although the Twins are really hurting for viable future catching yet it seems like Ricardo Olivar is totally off the Twins radar. In '22, Olivar was named the MVP of the FCL, FCL post season All-Star catcher and FCL player of the month in July. Although he's listed at catcher, where he played the most of his games, he still played a lot of games at CF and some at 2B and cOFs. He's also good defensively w/ above average arm.
Season Team Level Age G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA   wRC+         2021 MIN FCL 19 34 59 1 5 5 3 13.6% 28.8% .143 .290 .204 .339 .347 .336   92         2022 MIN FCL 20 40 154 5 16 23 5 11.7% 21.4% .256 .430 .349 .442 .605 .480   181 He got drafted in '19 but didn't start pro ball until '21 because of covid. Like a lot of these prospects during this time their development stopped & they became stagnant. The problem is he turned 21 last Aug, & that's a little old for rookie ball. My hope is like Endy Rodriguez exploding this year going from A to AAA, Olivar will do this coming year starting at A ball. Endy was Rule 5 draft eligible this year & Ricardo will be next year.
Ricardo didn't even make TD's honorable mention but he's been on my radar & I'll be tracking him this coming year. 

The Twins franchise has lost key games to many legends over time: Koufax, Yastrzemski, most of the 21st century Yankees, and... Eric Fox?

That name may not be familiar, but if you followed the 1992 season with hopes of a repeat championship, Eric Fox played a large role in crushing those hopes.
As they did in 1991, the 1992 Twins started slow in April, but warmed up in May and June, and finally took sole possession of first place after a marathon 15-inning win vs. Baltimore on Independence Day, July 4th. Entering a 3-game showdown with the second-place Oakland Athletics from July 27-29, the Twins held first place by 3 games, as well as the best record in MLB.
The series should have favored the Twins: it was held in the Metrodome, packed with friendly fans off the excitement of 1991, and two of Oakland's stars, Rickey Henderson and Jose Canseco, were hobbled by injury. In their absence, the 28-year-old rookie non-prospect Fox was thrust into the A's outfield and leadoff spot, just 3 weeks after his major league debut. But Oakland won the first two games, prompting Twins GM Andy MacPhail to say "It looks like God wants a pennant race." Fox contributed 4 hits in 10 at-bats over those two games, which kept him in the leadoff spot for the third and final game of the series despite the returns of Canseco and Henderson.
In that third game, 30 years ago today (July 29, 1992), Bill Krueger out-dueled Dave Stewart for 8 innings before Rick Aguilera came on in the 9th to protect both a 4-2 lead in the game and a 1-game lead in the division. Back-to-back singles brought up the potential go-ahead in Henderson, who would have been a logical hero, but baseball heroes aren't always logical: Henderson flew out for the first out of the inning. The next batter was Eric Fox.
The switch-hitting Fox hit a 1-1 pitch off the facing of the Metrodome's upper deck in right field for a 3-run home run, giving the A's a 5-4 lead. After the game, Fox said, "Definitely the biggest hit in my life. Twenty-eight years worth. He came inside on me, and I just turned on it. The first thing I thought was that I might have turned on it too much. But I had that certain feeling."
Dennis Eckersley, on his way to a Cy Young Award, retired the Twins in order in the bottom of the 9th to secure the victory, the sweep, and his 33rd save in as many chances that season.

The 1992 Twins quickly faded into second place, as God's interest in a pennant race must have waned.
But the hero Fox quickly faded too, finishing his major league career with a .198 batting average and 5 home runs in 290 plate appearances spread across four seasons. He'd show at least one more flair for the dramatic, though: on Opening Day in 1993, with Oakland clinging to a late 1-run lead against Detroit, Fox would hit a pinch-hit grand slam for insurance.
Does God want a pennant race in 2022? The Twins' most recent games against Chicago and Cleveland might suggest that, and the Twins are scheduled to play them a combined 17 times over their final 33 games. If there is a 2022 version of Eric Fox, we can only hope God places him on the Twins this time.

Hello Twins Territory. My name is Jason and I would like to introduce myself. I have been watching the Twins since…well maybe when I was a young boy in 1987. I’m currently living near North Dakota but will be relocating to downtown Minneapolis this week if the closing does not fall through last minute. I don’t need an Alex Colome type April 2021 on this one. I am hoping to do some writing about the Twins here on Twins Daily. Maybe daily, but maybe not. Let’s see how this goes for a bit first. I would enjoy meeting some folks at a game or anywhere else to talk Twins, life, your story, or mine. If you need a 90’s pop culture guy for some trivia somewhere let me know. I am in.
A little about my Twins fandom and some other random thoughts:
The Twins are one of my reasons I decided to relocate to downtown Minneapolis.
I do think Byron Buxton should get days off.
As long as the Twins are in first place, they are not trading Carlos Correa.
Joe Mauer was not overpaid.
I like hockey just as much as baseball. A good high school hockey game is fantastic.
Tom Brunansky was one of my favorites.
Scott Erickson too.
Ron Coomer making an All-Star team with an OPS+ of 82 is a wild ride.
I thought Marty Cordova was going to be very good.
Anyway, until next time.

36 years ago today, Twins fans had a frightening experience at the Metrodome. And Ron Davis hadn't even entered the game yet!
It was a Saturday night in April 1986, and the stadium was unusually crowded with fans for that era, with an announced attendance of 31,996. I'd like to report that a mass of Twins faithful had shown up to support a young, exciting team building towards a World Series championship the following year, but Howard Sinker in the next morning's Star Tribune likened it to a timeshare presentation instead: 125 vacations were being awarded to fans that night.

As the Twins built a 5-1 lead in front of that captive audience inside the Dome, a severe thunderstorm was happening outside. Roads were flooded and trees were downed in the metro area, but thanks to the Dome's roof, the Twins and Angels played on in comfort. That is, until Mickey Hatcher stood at the plate in the bottom of the 8th inning, when the roof began to undulate, heavy light banks to sway, and rainwater to pour on fans in several places. The next day's KARE 11 newscast likened it to "a scene from a horror movie."
Caught in the turmoil were these two Chippendales dancers, apparently:

Home plate umpire Ken Kaiser halted play and called the players off the field, while public address announcer Bob Casey told fans to remain calm and evacuate the upper deck. Despite the drama, fans were never in any danger, the Metrodome operations crew was quickly able to adjust the air pressure to stabilize the roof, and the game resumed after a 9 minute delay.
How did it happen? Jay Weiner broke it down in the Monday April 28 Star Tribune:

When play resumed, Hatcher scored Steve Lombardozzi with a sacrifice fly to extend the Twins lead to 6-1. Unfortunately, that is when the real disaster began. Frank Viola started the 9th inning by allowing a double and a home run to cut the lead to 6-3, and the Twins brought in the aforementioned Ron Davis to try for the save. Davis had begun the 1986 season with 5 scoreless appearances, but his previous outing was a five-run shellacking at the hands of this very Angels ballclub.
As might be expected, Davis was greeted with a single and home run to further cut the Twins lead to 6-5, before finally recording the first out of the inning. A Reggie Jackson pinch-hit walk and another out followed, to bring the Twins within one out of victory. But eventual Rookie of the Year Wally Joyner clubbed a two-run homer to put the Angels on top 7-6, and the Twins went down in order in the bottom of the 9th to end the game. This game turned out to be the penultimate 9th inning save opportunity of Davis' career; remarkably, he was still able to be traded to the Cubs in August 1986 with a 9.08 ERA for the season.
This game proved to be the final Twins weather delay at the Metrodome, according to Stew Thornley. Even after being wind-battered, the Dome further proved it was not broken by hosting the Twins and Angels again the following afternoon, although the final outcome wasn't much different: an 8-7 Angels victory, this time without the help of Ron Davis.

Happy Opening Week! As a Twins fan who was a kid during the Metrodome era of the aughts, I have fond, cherished memories of being swept away by the wind when the Metrodome doors were opened after games, the giant milk jug down the first baseline, the outfield curtain, Dome Dogs, and uncountable other quirks and joys. Though I have strong nostalgia for our beloved Dome, there is no question that Target Field is one of the most beautiful, scenic stadiums in the MLB. Nothing can compare to sitting out at a a game with your friends on a perfect 70-some degree evening, and Target Field certainly is a great place to do it. In celebration of our beloved team taking the field this week, here are some of my favorite things about Target Field:
1. The view of the city skyline from the 3rd baseline- I’ve gone to uncountable Twins games since Target Field opened, but I think I can count the number of times I’ve sat down the first baseline or in the outfield on two hands. There’s nothing wrong with sitting elsewhere in the park- they just don’t offer the same sweeping views of the downtown skyline. No, Target Field does not have giant tailgate lots like the Brewers or White Sox, but the stadium's location smack-dab in the middle of downtown Minneapolis makes up for it. The giant Target dog Bullseye wagging his tail in right field is also pretty cute. If you’re looking for something to do in between innings, try counting the number of times he wags his tail in a minute, then extrapolate that into month, year, etc.

 
2. Club Rayne during rain delays- There is nothing quite as groan-inducing as when the clouds roll in and the Target Field grounds crew descends upon the field with a tarp. However, rain delays are made much more tolerable- and even entertaining- due to the Twins opening up “Club Rayne” during each rain delay- a bit where the Twins throw a rain delay dance party and show fans dancing on the jumbotron to somewhat chaotic party music ranging from intense electronic music you might hear at a club to Michael Jackson. Last year during a rain delay my brother got extended screentime on the jumbotron by doing the Thriller dance. The Twins also find other ways to pass the time during rain delays; last year’s Home Opener was briefly stopped by a rain delay and Target Field played part of the NCAA hockey tournament that was happening concurrently. It looks like Club Rayne dates back to Target Field’s early days, so Twins fans have been dancing in the rain for almost a decade. I'm hoping for few rain delays this year, but if the clouds do open up, I'm ready to get down. 
3. The real organist- Target Field-goers may or may not be aware that the stadium has its own organ player- Sue Nelson- who has been the Twins’ full-time organist since 1999! Look for her upbeat stylings in the 2 Gingers Pub located near sections 214-216. In a game that's constantly evolving, having an organ played live is a sweet nod to the game's longstanding traditions- similar to the players wearing button-up shirts, fans singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame," and coaches wearing baseball uniforms just like the players. Today, about 50% of MLB ballparks have a live organ player, so Nelson is one of the many reasons why Target Field is so special and unique.
4. Friday night fireworks- The Twins light up the downtown skyline with postgame fireworks every Friday night game from June to August. They are impressive shows that are accompanied by music- often tying in with the game’s theme (Star Wars songs for Star Wars night, for example). The downtown skyline and the Minne and Paul sign are simply a gorgeous backdrop to the show. The St. Paul Saints also do Fireworks Fridays too. It feels a little strange following up a Twins or Saints loss with fireworks, but the show must go on! Going to these Friday games is one of my favorite summer things to do with my friends because the show is a perfect, multicolor cherry on top to a beautiful evening. 
 

5. Minnie and Paul shaking hands after a win- Adorable and unique. I really enjoy how Target Field ties in both tradition with modernity (now to get the Twins to start wearing the “M” hats again).  Now that the Saints are over across the river, our favorite centerfield staples seem even more applicable. I also love how they play the same song after every win- 'On Top of the World' by Imagine Dragons.
6. Artwork outside the stadium- It is clear that the stadium was planned with painstaking detail; even the outside is lovely and unique too. The outside of the stadium is lined with murals and is surrounded with sculptures ranging from Kirby Puckett's iconic homerun trot to the giant glove that fans commonly sit inside to take pictures. Next time you're early for a game, take a lap around the outside of the stadium- I realized at one point that because I always park in the same spot and go in the same entrance, I didn't even quite know all that was there!
7. Cool giveaways- Though the Twins run a lot of special theme night packages, they still have some cool fan giveaways. The Twins always treat Opening Day fans right by giving away quality items like a Twins puffer vest or hooded zip-up sweatshirt. My siblings in particular love going to bobblehead days. Last year I showed up way early to get a baby blue giveaway jersey. Albeit thin material, it is a quality giveaway and will look great with a little ironing. It even has buttons and the patches!
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8. The Mascot Race- I love the Mascot Race and taking harmless bets with my buddies on who is going to win (I usually pick Bullseye- the Twins gotta uphold that Target sponsorship so the odds should be good, ya know?) I like Gracie the Gray Duck probably the best though. On Sundays the mascot race is run by cute kinds who rather than wearing the full mascot costume are just wearing mini versions of the mascot heads. The best was when the Twins had fans text in their pick for the race and if they won, they would get a coupon for something free like sunscreen or Oreos at Target. Let's bring that back, eh Twins?
9. Twingo and the Pick 3 Game- I have never won either but have come close. These are fun ways to be even more invested in the game and pay attention to the game's happenings. My Pick 3 strategy is to pick players who others are not likely to pick. Everyone is going to pick Buxton, so I gotta gain an edge somewhere, right? Then again, like I said I have never won, so proceed with my advice with caution. 

10. Dollar Dog Night- Nothing beats getting dinner- or following dinner up- with a dollar dog (or two or several). My friends and I enjoy going to these Dollar Dog games and buying round of hotdogs like people do with drinks at bars. They are delicious but not filling, so the amount of Dollar Dogs I could put away if I wanted is dangerous. Last year on a couple occasions I remember the Twins even toasted the inside of the hotdog bun! Not bad for a buck. 
 

 
That's it for now! I can't wait for another season of games at this beautiful stadium. What are some of your favorite things about Target Field?
 
 
 
 

Among my friends, I’m known as being a bit of a Minnesota sports optimist. I’m the type of person who, when it’s at the end of the NFL season and the Vikings hold a 11% chance of making it to the playoffs IF the Vikings beat the Packers at Lambeau, the Washington Football team beats the Eagles, AND the terrible, tanking Texans beat the Niners, I’m all in on following those scenarios.
Next week sounds like it will feature a marathon of bargaining sessions as the MLB and its owners and the MLB Players Association work to iron out differences in their CBA proposals. However, unless things really begin to pick up, we might be looking at the reality of a shortened regular season. But could a shortened season be good for the Twins on multiple fronts? Here is a look at a shortened season through an optimistic lens.
1. Smaller sample size
One of the truths of baseball is that most things tend to even out to their natural state by the end of the season in a theory called "Regression Towards the Mean." In all sports, there is certainly some luck involved. However, in baseball and its gauntlet of a 162 game regular season, over the long run most things average out, including batting averages, pitching performance, and wins for a team. But what happens if the season is short enough that things can’t regress to that mean? What if the Twins start hot and then just stay hot?
Twins leadership has maintained they anticipate being competitive in 2022 despite trading José Berríos to the Toronto Blue Jays at the MLB trade deadline last season and not pursuing any flashy free agent starting pitchers before the lockout commenced (we hardly ever do). I am not saying that I do not anticipate the Twins being competitive this season, but our favorite ballclub certainly has their work cut out for them once the lockout ends, including a pressing need to sign two starting pitchers, a starting shortstop, and a late-inning reliever. 
Thus, with such an uncertain rotation, glaring roster holes, and the jury still out on the future of some of their prospects like Royce Lewis, maybe the smaller the sample size for the Twins, the better. It seemed that last season was a perfect storm for the Twins in which the majority of their players were slumping or injured all at the same time. It is feasible the opposite could happen- multiple players could have career seasons. Maybe less games in 2022 would be beneficial to the Twins and if they started hot, would not allow them to regress to a mean which included statistics like finishing the 2021 season with the 17th best batting average at .241 and the 26th best ERA at 4.83. A somewhat anecdotal example illustrating sample size- do you favor the Twins' odds more in a one game playoff with the Yankees or a full series? ("Neither" is not an acceptable answer, thank you very much). There's sample size for ya.
Another note- the last time the Twins won the division it was in a small sample size 60-game season. More on that later.
2. Less injuries for star veterans
A shortened season would also benefit the Twins because less games means less wear and tear on their injury-prone stars. Josh Donaldson has struggled with recurring calf issues throughout his career- in a July 2020 Instragram post, Donaldson acknowledged that he’s torn “both of my calves a total of seven times in two years.” Calf issues held him to 28 games in 2020 and forced him to sit out of the playoffs that year. During the full 2021 season, Donaldson got in 135 games but was bothered by hamstring issues. He will be 36 for the 2022 season, and while he still can bring the rain, there is little doubt less games would be of great benefit to him.
The most evident beneficiary of a shorter season is Byron Buxton. To be clear, I was incredibly excited about the Buxton extension and did not remotely believe his injuries were a reason to not resign him, as many of his injuries have stemmed from somewhat freak occurrences like getting hit by a pitch (2020 and 2021) or fouling a ball off his toe (2018). To me, it is unfair to label him as being "made out of glass" from these instances of bad luck that could happen to anyone. Regardless, in looking at his game log through his entire Twins career- he has played triple digit games only once- 140 games in 2017. It is inarguable that the Twins are a much better team when Buxton is in the lineup; since the beginning of 2019, the Twins have played at a 99-win pace when Byron Buxton is in their starting lineup and an 81-win pace when he isn't. Therefore, less games would mean less wear and tear on their star centerfielder's body, which hopefully would result in him being in the starting lineup more regularly. More Buxton starts, more wins.
3. Games (almost) solely against AL Central teams

In 2020, the MLB faced another shortened season with only 60 games played due to the pandemic and boy, did it work out well for the Twins. During this season, the Twins played 10 games vs each of their four AL Central opponents and 20 games against NL opponents. The Twins won the American League Central division title for the second year in a row and had winning or .500 records against each of their AL Central opponents. The Twins were 13-7 in the 20 NL games they played. Maybe they just do better when avoiding beatdowns from the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Athletics- if you can imagine that (sarcasm). A shortened season would probably follow a similar model; with little time to waste, divisional games would be prioritized.
If you dig into this 2021 wins matrix, you will see that despite the Twins having a decidedly disappointing season with their 73-89 record, the Twins played disproportionally well vs each of their AL Central opponents with the exception of the White Sox, who ran away with the AL Central title and had their most wins as a franchise since the 2005 season. Despite landing in last in the AL Central rankings, the Twins went 11-8 vs the Cleveland Guardians, 11-8 vs the Detroit Tigers, and 9-10 vs the Kansas City Royals. Of all the other AL teams the Twins faced, the only other AL series the Twins won were vs the tied-for-league-worst Baltimore Orioles, the Houston Astros, and the Texas Rangers. Every other AL series the Twins lost, thus making the fact that the Twins won or were almost .500 vs all their divisional opponents (yes, except the White Sox- but the Twins were 5-5 vs them in 2020 and we'll get 'em next year) significant. Nothing says they couldn't perform similarly well vs their division opponents in 2022.
Even though there is nothing more I would like to do more than try to beat my personal record for number of home games I attend during a Twins season, I take heart knowing that a shortened season could very well shake out in the Twins' favor. Just a little optimism for you on this windy, spring training-less day.
 
Feature photo: Fireworks Friday after a 6-4 loss to the Astros on June 11, 2021
Photo: Byron Buxton warming up in the on deck circle during an extremely hot and muggy game I attended on June 10, 2021. Buxton went yard twice and returned to the outfield in what was the first game of his Saints rehab stint.

With the Buxton turmoil recently and much of the negative eye on the FO, there hasn’t been much talk about Baldelli. However, Baldelli has received just as much heat from this site over the past 7 months as the FO has. I’ve touched on Baldelli before in this thread, but that was incredibly one sided toward Baldelli and I never really talked about some of my criticisms toward Baldelli. Also, that was written in May. It is now November. Time has passed and we have more to look at. Baldelli now has his first losing season.
I’m going to look at some of the things I think make Baldelli the right guy for this team and I’m also going to look at some of the things I think make Baldelli not the right guy for this team.
Why he’s the right man for this team
The Twins had a real clunker of a season in 2018. Paul Molitor was fired as a result, and Baldelli was hired. Many other changes were made to the coaching staff as well. In 2019, the team looked much better and played really well throughout the year, en route to 101 wins. The team simply played much better under Baldelli, which implies good things about the manager. Even if you include the awful 2021 season, the team has averaged 88.6 wins per season (162 games) throughout three years under Baldelli. That’s better than any season they had from 2011-2018.
This might not look like much in terms of the things going for Baldelli, but the case here is that it doesn’t need much explanation.
Why he’s not the right man for this team
My first critique of Baldelli is that his team, particularly in 2021, looked poorly prepared. IMO, it hasn’t been talked enough how much this team struggled with the fundamentals of baseball. Failing to make the most basic of plays. I watched every game through late May (after May not every game, but most games) and I saw this team fail at the fundamentals, comedically at times. This could be attributed towards a coaching staff as a whole, but Baldelli is a pretty big part of that.
I talked about how the team performed better under Baldelli in the Pros section, but there are times where I wonder if Baldelli is getting less out of his team than the sum of its parts. To me, the biggest example of this is the 2020 Wild Card Series against the Astros. The Twins were favored to win, but they didn’t even show up to the ballpark. They lost the series without a single victory. Many on this site lamented about poor relief work, and while I agree that the bullpen was not good, you can’t overlook the fact that this team scored 2 runs in 2 games against a pitching staff composed entirely of Zack Greinke, Ryan Pressly, and a bunch of rookies. The Twins offense was underwhelming in 2020, but they were at least competent, especially at home. This is not a case of an incapable lineup being exposed, this is a case of everyone performing well below their talent level in a situation of high magnitude. It’s been obvious since January of 2020 that Mike Zimmer would consistently get less out of his Vikings than the sum of their parts, and I’m wondering if the same thing is happening with Baldelli. The 2020 Wild Card Series isn’t the only example of this, I also think that parts of the 2021 season are an example. This team had dog**** offensive performance after dog**** offensive performance for much of the beginning of the season, with the occasional 12-run blow-up.
All and all, those are my thoughts about Baldelli. What do I think his future should be on the Twins? As of right now, IDK. I want to say he would be on the hot seat for 2022 but right now, next season is on the FO. They need to untangle themselves with the Buxton situation and fill out a pitching staff. If they can do that, Baldelli should then be on the hot seat at the start of the season. But if they can’t and decide to punt 2022, it wouldn’t be Baldelli’s fault if the team doesn’t do well.
That was a lot. I think I’m going to go eat a cookie now.

With the 2021 season just about wrapped up for the Minnesota Twins, here’s yet another article to talk about starting pitching and why dumpster diving or even mid-tier free agent starters are actually much riskier than the top free agent starters with those big contracts.
Conventional Twins wisdom is that big name, free agent starters are simply too expensive and too risky. Jim Pohlad is very skittish when it comes to long contracts and big dollars. The idea of “crippling” a roster also sends some Twins fans into a panic. It makes sense, after all, the Twins free agent pitchers almost never actually pan out for more than a year.
For this year, the Twins’ front office decided not to pursue an arm to replace Odorizzi, leaving a major hole in the middle of the rotation. Instead, Happ and Shoemaker were signed to contracts all too typical of the Twins’ front office. The cost? $10MM utterly wasted. That said, the Twins are absolutely spending ace starter money in free agency and acquisitions every single year and have been spending $30-43MM annually for those arms for 7 consecutive seasons coming into 2021. I even adjusted the salaries for players which were traded away… Read it and weep.
Median WAR = middle bWAR season performance with 2020 being multiplied by 2.7 due to the shortened season. Total WAR = Total bWAR over the life of the entire contract, even if the player was traded away. $/WAR = Entire Contract Dollars, Adjusted for 2020 / Total bWAR, Not Adjusted for 2020. The salary figures shown are not adjusted for 2020 so they can be viewed in proper context.  
  Med. Tot $                 Player WAR WAR /WAR 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Correia -1.1 -1.1 -5 6               Pelfrey 0.4 0.8 13.8 6 6             Hughes -0.1 5.5 11.9 8 9 9 13 8 7     Nolasco 0.5 2 24 12 12 8 4         Milone 0.8 0.9 8.1   3 5           Santana 0.5 9.8 5.6   14 14 14 14 1     Santiago 0.2 0.3 32.7     2 8         Odorizzi 1.2 4.4 6.1         6 10 18   Pineda 0.8 3.3 8         2 8 10 10 Lynn 0.4 0.4 25         10       Perez 0.1 0.1 40           4     Maeda 2.7 1.8 2.7             3 3 Bailey 0.5 0.2 22             7   Hill 2.1 0.8 2.4             3   Shoemaker -1.9 -1.9 -1.1               2 Happ -1.8 -1.8 -4.4               8                           Season Total 31 43 37 38.7 39.8 29.5 40.8 23
 
In fact, almost none of the Twins signings and acquisitions were worth it, including the starters who were actually “worth the money” because they still weren’t worth starting. For example, Tommy Milone only cost $8.1MM / WAR. That’s an A grade signing. He was worth every bit of the money he was paid, on am average season. But he still wasn’t good enough to actually want him in the rotation. What about Ervin Santana? We all know what a huge asset he was over his first couple seasons and the Twins got one WAR for only $5.6MM which is an A+ kind of deal. The big issue is he was terrible over his last two years, dragging his median performance way down.
Ace = 4.0 WAR+ #2 = 3.0-4.0 WAR #3 = 2.5-3.0 WAR #4 = 2.0-2.5 WAR #5 = 1.5-2.0 WAR I’ve also adjusted the median values for 2020’s short season. That’s the problem with dumpster dives and even mid-tier free agents. All it takes is a slight decline and poof, all the money is utterly wasted because you’re paying guaranteed money to a starter who isn’t worth playing.
Well, everybody knows big free agent contracts never work out though, right? Wrong. Big name, free agent starters are almost always worth it. This is for two reasons. First, they often perform at ace levels even if they decline a bit, but if they take a major hit or injury, they almost always bounce back as a solid starter in the rotation. The money is virtually never totally wasted like it often is on mediocre or low cost starters. Of the 8 front line free agent starters signed since 2014, every single one of them has been worth a rotation spot in an average year. Most are even good deals. Don’t believe me again?
  Med. Tot $                                 Player WAR WAR /WAR Future? 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Grade Lester 2.1 13.2 9.6 - 30 20 20 23 25 28                 B Greinke 4.2 17.9 10.3 - 34 34 34 35 35 35                 C Scherzer 5.5 41.4 4.1 - 17 22 22 22 37 36 35 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 A+ Price 1.8 11.1 13.9 F   30 30 30 31 32 32 32             F Darvish 5.6 7.6 9.9 A       25 20 22 22 19 18           B Corbin 4.1 5.4 8.6 F         15 19 24 23 24 35         A Cole 5.6 7.6 6.4 A           36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 A Wheeler 6.8 7.6 3.45 A           22 23 26 25 24         A+ Strasburg 0 0 Inf F           24 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 27 F- *The summary is updated to reflect the addition of Strasburg to the chart. I decided against adding Bauer. Bauer doesn't have a long term contract, and part of the reason FA ace caliber pitchers are a low risk is a single lost season is easy to overcome. Among the 9 listed starters, only 3 have lost an entire season (Price x1.5, Darvish, Strasburg x2). Of the 38 seasons on the contracts from the 9 starters, 4.5 seasons have been lost. A risk of a starter losing a season is approximately 10% per contract season.
Right now, Corbin and Strasburg both look like a bad deals, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they rebounded. If you look at those contracts, something really stands out to me. Only Strasburg has played poorly enough so the team who signed them wouldn’t have wanted in the rotation and 6 of the 8 are bonefide ace level pitchers on their average season. Even David Price with all his injuries and down performance is worth trotting out there. Also, 7 of 8 of those front line starters have been absolutely C or better signings. Here’s how I’d arbitrarily grade signings based on the dollars spent per WAR.
$16MM+ = F- $14-16MM = F $12-14MM = D $10-12MM = C $9-10MM = B $6-9MM = A 0-6MM = A+ To sum it up, the scary big contracts for front line starters almost always work out over the life of the contract, and even when they don’t work out exactly as intended, the pitchers are almost always worth running out there every 5 days as part of the rotation. However, the low end and middle of the rotation arms are almost never worth it based on nearly a decade of track record by the Twins and over a dozen such starting pitchers. Considering the Twins absolutely do not need any #4-5 starters, the front office also needs to stop wasting money with their annual dumpster dive, refocus and acquire top pitching talent. After all, it’d barely cost more on an annual basis to replace the typical free agent signings they’ve been wasting money on to sign two top of the rotation arms as they’re available.

Hello and welcome to the second installment of Twins Tunes. My name’s Louie.
 
The second edition features Jim Kaat, Senators/Twins pitcher from 1959 to 1973. He also looks like he could be my uncle. And is also a lefty pitcher!
 
If you like what you hear, feel free to share it on social media and whatnot. I don’t have any of those anymore, so if this thing’s gonna go viral, it’s up to you, Twins Daily masses.
 
Special thanks to my cousin Bubba, who mixed, engineered, produced, and mastered the track. You can check out his music at BubbaHolly.com or by searching for “Bubba Holly” on Spotify/BandCamp/wherever you get your music. His new album is terrific. Also, Bubba and I make music under the name Bunkin’ Cousins, if you’d like to hear concept albums about the late medieval period or epic cabin weekends.
 
(Also, if anyone knows how to embed a SoundCloud track, let me know! I'm struggling with it, so a link will have to suffice in the meantime.)
 
Without further adieu, enjoy “Kitty Kaat.”
 
https://soundcloud.com/twinstunes/kitty-kaat

Hello and welcome to the first installment of Twins Tunes. My name’s Louie, the P.T. Barnum of this particular big top.
 
What is Twins Tunes? Basically, I’m going to write and record a song about a different Twin or piece of Twins’ history and post it on here every couple weeks.
 
The inaugural edition features Randy Bush, Twins pinch-hitter extraordinaire from 1982-1993. (Bush is also well-known for being the obvious replacement for Dan Gladden in the lead-off spot in RBI Baseball.)
 
If you like what you hear, feel free to share it on social media and whatnot. I don’t have any of those anymore, so if this thing’s gonna go viral, it’s up to you, Twins Daily masses.
 
Special thanks to my cousin Bubba, who mixed, engineered, produced, and mastered the track. You can check out his music at BubbaHolly.com or by searching for “Bubba Holly” on Spotify/BandCamp/wherever you get your music. His new album is terrific. Also, Bubba and I make music under the name Bunkin’ Cousins, if you’d like to hear concept albums about the late medieval period or epic cabin weekends.
 
I’d love to get suggestions for future songs; I have a few in the hopper but would love for this project to be collaborative.
 
(Also, if anyone knows how to embed a SoundCloud track, let me know! I'm struggling with it, so a link will have to suffice in the meantime.)
 
Without further adieu, enjoy “Randy Bush.”
 
https://soundcloud.com/twinstunes/randy-bush
 
Twins Tunes · Randy Bush

UCL Reconstruction Surgery
Heezy1323
 
 
I recently posted a blog about Chris Sale and the news that he was set to undergo UCL reconstruction. That post covered some questions surrounding the diagnosis and decision-making that occurs when players/teams are faced with this dilemma. That post got a little lengthy, and I chose not to delve into the surgery itself, as I felt that may be better presented as a separate entry. My intention with this post is to discuss some of the different techniques that are used to perform UCL reconstruction. This does get fairly technical, and I apologize in advance if it is more than people would like to know.
 
First, we should revisit the anatomy. The ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) is a small but strong ligament on the medial (or inner) part of the elbow. It is around the size of a small paper clip. Ligaments (by definition) connect one bone to an adjacent bone. The UCL spans from the medial epicondyle of the humerus (the bump you can likely feel on the inside of your elbow) to the sublime tubercle of the ulna (one of the two forearm bones). (As an aside, sublime tubercle is one of my favorite terms in all of anatomy).
 




 
As with nearly any reconstructive surgery in orthopedics, our aim is to recreate the native/normal anatomy as closely as possible. In order to do this, most techniques utilize small tunnels that are drilled into the bone at the ligament attachment sites. The tissue that is used to reconstruct the ligament is then woven through these tunnels and tightened to create a secure new ‘ligament’ that heals and strengthens over time.
 
The primary differences between different techniques are the ‘approach’ (or how tissues are moved aside to see the damaged areas), the specifics of how the tunnels are made and used, the type of tissue (or graft) that is used to make the new ligament, and the way that the graft is secured in place. There are a number of variations that exist, but I’ll cover a few of the most commonly used methods.
 
First, some history may be in order. The first UCL reconstruction was, famously, performed on Tommy John. Tommy John was an outstanding pitcher for the LA Dodgers in the early 1970’s, and had compiled a 13-3 record in 1974 when he had a sudden injury to his elbow and was unable to throw. Imaging was performed, and the diagnosis of a UCL tear was made by pioneering orthopedic surgeon, Dr. Frank Jobe (of the famous Kerlan Jobe clinic in LA). Dr. Jobe had an idea to perform a reconstruction of the UCL, and practiced on several cadavers until he felt he had worked out a promising technique. He told Tommy that he thought he had a 1 in 100 chance of a successful return to MLB pitching. John decided to go ahead. The surgery was ultimately successful, and John returned to pitching in 1976. Though Tommy made it back, he did have a temporary palsy of his ulnar nerve after surgery, which is the ‘funny bone’ nerve that is near the UCL. This caused him significant weakness in his hand at first, but fortunately the strength returned over time and Tommy was able to return to pitching. Interestingly, he won more MLB games after surgery than he did before surgery, and pitched until 1989. There is a story that Jose Canseco hit a homer off John late in his career. Apparently Canseco’s father was Tommy’s dentist, and Tommy said something to the effect of “When your dentist’s kid starts hitting home runs off you, it’s time to retire.”
 
The technique used for this first surgery was termed the Jobe Technique (for obvious reasons). It involved removing the attachment of the muscles to the inner part of the elbow and pulling the muscles toward the wrist to get a good look at the UCL itself. Tunnels were drilled in the bone at the normal attachment sites of the ligament, and a small tendon from the forearm (called the palmaris) was used to weave through the tunnels making a ‘figure-8’ in order to make a new ligament. (The palmaris is a non-necessary tendon that is located in the forearm of about 2/3 of the population. For those patients who don’t have a palmaris, we usually use a hamstring tendon called the gracilis for this procedure.) The old ligament was left in place and sewed into the graft. The nerve was also moved from its normal location (behind the bump) to in front of the bump to take some of the tension off. This is called a ‘transposition’ of the ulnar nerve.
 


 
This technique was used for a while, but it did have some drawbacks, such as a high percentage of patients having ulnar nerve problems after surgery and some weakness resulting from detaching and reattaching the muscles of the forearm. Because of this, other surgeons sought new ways to perform this surgery.
 
One commonly used technique was termed the ASMI-modification of the Jobe Technique. ASMI stand for American Sports Medicine Institute (in Birmingham, AL) and this modification was initially described by Dr. James Andrews and colleagues. This involved similar bone tunnels, but the main difference was in the way that the muscles were treated. Rather than detaching the muscle and reattaching at the end of the surgery, in the ASMI technique the muscle was lifted up (and not detached) and the work was done underneath the muscle. The ulnar nerve is transposed when this technique is used (like the Jobe technique). The passing and fixation of the graft is essentially identical to the Jobe Technique as well.
 


 
Another commonly used technique is called the ‘docking method’. There are a couple of main differences between the docking method and ASMI method. First, the docking method utilizes a ‘muscle-splitting’ approach rather than a ‘muscle-lifting’ approach like the AMSI technique (see figure). This means that the muscle is divided between its fibers and a ‘window’ is created in the muscle in order to see the torn UCL and make the tunnels. There is also a difference in the way the tunnels are made. In the ASMI technique, the tunnels are the same size all the way through, and the graft tissue is passed all the way through the tunnels. In the docking technique, the tunnel on the ulna side is the same. But on the humeral side, the tunnels are sort-of half tunnels with smaller tunnels continuing on through the back side of the bone. This is because the graft is fixed in a different way- there are strong stitches that are attached to the ends of the graft that pull each end into the large tunnels. The stitches then pass through the small portion of the tunnels and are tied behind the bone, which secures the graft in place.
 


 
This technique does not require transposition of the ulnar nerve, which is an advantage because less handling of the nerve generally means less risk of trouble with the nerve after surgery.
 
There are a handful of other techniques that are slight variations on these themes, primarily using different devices such as anchors, interference screws or metal buttons to achieve graft fixation. There have been a number of cadaver biomechanical studies done that have compared methods, and they have been found to be largely equivalent. There seems to be a smaller incidence of ulnar nerve symptoms after surgery when the nerve is not handled/transposed (which makes some sense). The return to play rates are very similar regardless of which technique is used, with perhaps a slight favor to docking technique depending on the study.
 
I trained with Dr. Andrews, and performed nearly 100 UCL reconstruction cases during my fellowship using the ASMI technique. In my own practice, I tend to use the docking technique most commonly. I do this because I would prefer not to transpose the nerve if I don’t have to in order to decrease the likelihood of nerve problems after surgery. We also saw some problems with fracture of the bone near the humeral tunnels when using the ASMI technique, and using the docking technique allows us to make smaller tunnels. This makes fracture in this area less likely. That said, Dr. Andrews has had (and continues to have) tremendous success using this technique. As we have learned more about this type of surgery, it has become clear that it is important that the bone tunnels be made very accurately, as improperly placed tunnels seem to be a risk factor for inability to return to full participation. There has also been some investigation as to whether addition of PRP or other biologics to the reconstruction area at the time of surgery makes a difference in healing speed or strength. At this time, I am not aware that any research has shown a difference.
 
If anyone has managed to make it this far without falling asleep, I hope you found this discussion interesting. Feel free to leave a comment below if you have additional questions. Thanks for reading. Safe wishes to you and your families.

I attended dozens of Twins games every year in the mid-90's as a kid. I sat through lineups composed of Otis Nixon, Butch Huskey, Midre Cummings and Rich Becker. I watched rotations that featured Scott Aldred, Bob Tewksbury and Rich Robertson.
 
Then, the 2000's happened. On one hand, it was very fun to see the Twins consistently contend for the playoffs and win 85-95 games every year. But the team never went out and traded for that one missing piece that would get them over the top and make them legitimate World Series contenders.
 
In the Metrodome years, it was understandable that they would be hesitant to take on contracts like those. The revenue streams were not there to support a $125 million payroll. Fine, so be it.
 
Then Target Field opened and fans were treated to what seemed to be a magical 2010 season. They had everything but a true #1 starter. Rumors flew around at the deadline, with names like Cliff Lee being floated as possibilities for the team to acquire at the deadline. We got Matt Capps, and were promptly swept by the Yankees in the first round.
 
Then, this time as a season ticket holder, I got to watch such studs as Darin Mastroianni, Chris Parmelee and Doug Bernier at the plate, while Mike Pelfrey, Sam Deduno and Scott Diamond "pitched" during the 2011-2018 seasons.
 
Meanwhile, the Twins raked in the money with revenue from the new ballpark and a new TV contract.
 
So forgive me if my patience has worn thin, and I am not content to just "enjoy the ride." I have been a loyal, money-paying, tv-watching, jersey-wearing fan for 35 years. It's time for the ownership to reward me, and the others who have been through the same thing, by unlocking the money bin and making some serious moves to become an actual World Series contender, not just a division crown contender.
 
I think the Twins need upgrades in the rotation and the bullpen. The team has the money and the prospects to get it done, right now. I personally don't give a crap if Trevor Larnach turns out to be a 10 time all star after he is traded if he brings back a player that can help the team win right now. Think of Shields/Davis coming to the Royals for Wil Meyers. Do any Royals fans really care if Meyers becomes a Hall of Famer after they traded him? I doubt it.
 
Don't think Madison Bumgarner is an upgrade over Kyle Gibson? Great. I can respectfully disagree with your opinion. However, calling fans who would like a trade "barbarians" (as Reusse did today) or talking down to people who aren't content to stand pat and see what happens, is just so frustrating.
 
It's great if you are fine to let the Pohlads rake in the dough and try to back their way into titles, that's your prerogative. I just think the narrative of fans who would like to see moves made being idiots, or bad fans, is growing tiresome.
 
Despite what Patrick Reusse, Jim Souhan or even commenters here might say, I personally think it's okay for fans to want more. We have waited long enough, and some of us aren't content with division championships.

Brusdar Graterol Shoulder Impingement Q&A
Heezy1323
 
 
Heralded Twins prospect Brusdar Graterol was recently shut down and placed on the IL for ‘shoulder impingement’. This is concerning given how promising a start to the 2019 season Graterol has had and what it could mean for his future.
 
So what is ‘shoulder impingement’? And when might it need surgery? Let’s see what we can figure out:
 
[Disclaimer: I am not a team physician for the Twins. I have not treated or examined any Twins players. The information I am using is only that which is publicly available. My goal with these posts is to provide some education to TD readers around general injuries that are peculiar to baseball players.]
 
 
Question 1: What is shoulder impingement?
Shoulder impingement is a sort of catch-all term that can be used to mean a number of different things depending on the specifics of the situation. It Is a term that is often used in application to patients who have pain in their shoulders, often without any specific structural damage or a particular injury. Most frequently, people have pain in their shoulder area that gets worse when working above chest level. It is often treated with physical therapy, activity modification, oral medication and occasional cortisone injections. It is uncommon for these patients to require surgery, but it is sometimes needed after the preceding treatments have failed to provide adequate relief. Some also refer to this condition as shoulder bursitis. It involves irritation of the rotator cuff and the bursa, which lies between the rotator cuff tendons and a part of the bone of the shoulder blade (called the acromion). You may have friends or family members who have been told they have ‘impingement’- this is a fairly commonly used diagnosis. More specifically, this condition is referred to as ‘external impingement’.
 


 
Shoulder impingement in pitchers, however, often means something entirely different than what is described above. Whereas external impingement occurs between the rotator cuff and the acromion (outside of the ball and socket joint of the shoulder), pitchers more commonly have problems with what is called ‘internal impingement’. This occurs specifically in overhead athletes because of the tremendous motion that is necessary to hurl a baseball 90+ mph accurately. During the course of throwing, the arm is cocked back, placing it in an awkward position. In this position, part of the rotator cuff can get pinched between the bone of the ball and the bone of the socket (also often including pinching of the labrum). This may not seem like a big deal, but over time this repetitive motion can begin to take its toll. Experts agree that some changes/damage to the structures of the shoulder are likely normal and adaptive in pitchers rather than problematic. In some cases, however, these structural changes progress down the spectrum and become an issue- causing pain, lack of velocity and/or control and fatigue of the shoulder.
 


 
There is not perfect agreement amongst experts about why exactly these athletes begin to have pain in some cases. Regardless, it is likely a very complex combination of factors ranging from subtle changes in mechanics to core strength to gradual loosening of shoulder ligaments over time (and many others). Each individual case is likely different, and treatment needs to be tailored to the specifics of the athlete.
 
 
Question 2: How/when did this injury occur?
Typically, this is not an injury that results from a single trauma (though theoretically it can happen that way). It is much more typical for this to be the result of an accumulation of ‘microtraumas’ over a long period of time.
 
Question 3: Does this injury always need surgery?
No. As mentioned above, painful shoulder impingement in throwers is likely related to a complex set of factors. Because of this, treating any ONE thing with a surgery is somewhat unlikely to be effective. As a result, treatment is almost always begun by trying to calm down inflamed tissues. This typically involves rest from throwing. It may also involve oral medications and in some instances, cortisone injections. There is some discussion around PRP and so-called ‘stem cell’ injections (what orthopedists refer to as Bone Marrow Aspirate Concentrate or BMAC) for these types of problems, though this is not yet something I would consider standard of care.
During this time, the athlete is also likely to undergo physical therapy to work on improving some of the other factors mentioned above- core strength, range of motion, rotator cuff strength, etc.
As the pain and inflammation improve, the athlete is likely re-examined by trainers and physicians. This can take anywhere from a week or two to several weeks depending on the case. When things have improved sufficiently, the athlete is likely to begin an interval throwing program, which involves progressively more aggressive throwing sessions. Once they have completed this, they would likely return to the mound and begin throwing from there. Once appropriate progress has been made (and of course presuming no setbacks are encountered), they are likely cleared to return to play.
The success of non-surgical treatment for these types of problems is all over the map in the literature. There are ranges from percents in the teens to 70%+. Again, it likely depends on a large number of factors which makes prognosticating nearly impossible.
 
 
Question 4: How do we tell which cases of impingement need surgery and which do not?
This can be among the most difficult decisions to make when dealing with pitchers. One of the problematic elements is that surgery to treat this problem is comparatively not very successful. As noted above, in general there are likely a number of different structural abnormalities in the shoulder that are in play with this injury. Some of them are adaptive and are considered ‘normally abnormal’ for pitchers. Others are problematic. Separating these two is something about which even experts readily disagree.
It is difficult (and perhaps foolish in this setting) to quote surgery success rates, but in general they are not the best. There is a reason behind the old saying that for pitchers “If it’s the elbow, call the surgeon. If it’s the shoulder, call the preacher.”
 
 
Question 5: What is done during surgery?
This is widely variable depending on the specific structures that are injured, and (quite honestly) the particular views of the operating surgeon. I was recently watching a lecture on just this subject that featured a panel of a number of the preeminent North American surgeons that treat these problems. The differences of opinion and differences in strategy between surgeons were substantial. Yet another reason to make significant efforts to make non-surgical treatment successful.
 
 
Question 6: How concerning is this for Graterol?
This is hard to know from the information available. As stated earlier, the term ‘impingement’ can mean a wide variety of things- some more concerning than others. One of the positives in this case would seem to be that Graterol was pitching very effectively quite recently. Thus, this doesn’t seem to be something that has been festering for months. Hopefully that means they’ve ‘caught it early’ and can get things back on track sooner than later. I would imagine he will be out for a few weeks at least, but I would be surprised if he required any surgery in the near future.
Overall, many pitchers have occasional blips on the radar with things like this that are improved with rest and rehab and don’t recur in the future. Predicting the future is difficult for anything- and this type of issue especially- but hopefully Graterol can get back on the mound throwing gas soon.
 
 
Go Twins!

Gaging value in relief pitichers is always a difficult task given that they are prone to issues with small sample size. Many relievers who were good one season will regress the next, and as we've seen with Blake Parker, guys who were nothing special can turn into a very good option.
 
Regardless, it was, without question, a point of contention this offseason among TD readers about the front office getting more help for the pen. I personally beat this horse dead on numerous occasions. I was happy with the Parker signing, but made it clear that I didn't want this to be the main acquisition. The pen so far has not been as bad as some of us (myself included) thought. It has essentially been slightly better than league average if WAR is be believed, though its peripherals definitely say that there's room for improvement.
 
As such, I'm going to wade into the dollars vs. development debate and take a look at the FA relievers from the 2018 season to see if it was worth spending the money. I'll split these out by contract value. That's a bit arbitrary, but it does speak to the general demand for these players. My main source is this ESPN list. I'm not going to pretend that I've found all of them, so apologies if I missed a few. I'm not going to touch minor league signings.
 
The cream of the Crop:
Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a bust, posting an ERA north of 5 out of the pen in 20 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP.
Andrew Miller - Another big name in the RP market, Miller has been, so far at least, a bust as well, posting a 4.80 ERA for the Cards after signing a 2/25 deal with an additional option. His K rate has improved this season but his WHIP has gotten worse with increases in hits, walks, and HRs per 9 innings.
Adam Ottavino - Our first success story on the big name candidates comes from Ottavino, who thus far has been a dominant option in the back of the Yankees' pen. His control has been a bit worse than normal (walking 6.5 batters per 9), but his hit rate is an absurd 4.5 per 9 and his strike out rate has increased as well. So far at least the 3/27 contract he signed has been good for NY.
Craig Kimbrel - He's still unsigned. So the book is still out.
Jeurys Familia - Familia chose to remain with the Mets this offseason, and thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed as his ERA is also north of 5 and his WHIP has skyrocketed due in large part to doubling his walk rate. His HR rate has doubled too thus far.
Zach Britton - Britton made bank signing a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has so far not disappointed. His K rate has increased substantially while the rest of his peripherals have remained pretty close to the same. His ERA is slightly lower as well.
Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has been probably the worst of this bunch. His ERA sits over 8. His K rate has dropped and he's seen large increases in both his hit and HR rates in his 16 appearances. His walk has dropped though.
David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow sorness.

In all, there have only been two hits of the 7 who signed in this group. I cannot emphasize enough that SSS is a huge factor here, but only 2 of these guys would have helped our pen... and unfortunately both are pitching for NY.
 
Second Tier
Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the mets, signing a 2/10 deal. Risk aside, he hasn't performed well thus far posting a 4.8 ERA in only 10 games. His peripherals are all over the place and seems to be buoyed largely by a couple extra home runs. His K rate and BB rates are both down this year.
Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and while the ERA is not pretty, his peripherals are in line with his career averages. Both his K rate and BB rates are up a bit and he has yet to give up a HR in his 21 innings. I'm not sure I'd call this a bust at this point as I think he's probably a victim of bad luck, but his 5.14 ERA is a bit ugly.
Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without.
Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and thus far every one of his peripherals have trended in the wrong direction. His ERA is north of 5.
Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and is currently in the minors rehabbing due to a viral infection. His 3 inning ML sample is a bit too small to gage at this point, though the results weren't good.

There are only 5 names in this tier, and so far every team wouldn't mind a do over. I could see a couple of these names evening out over the course of this season, but none of these guys would have helped us much at this point.
 
Cheap Fliers
Brad Brach - Brach has gotten results for the Cubs, but his peripherals say he's on borrowed time. His walk rate has doubled and his K rate is about at career norms. Still for 3 million dollar deal, Brach hasn't been bad.
Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been horrible in 15 innings so far.
Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. His ERA is a bit higher than we'd like for an RP at 3.63 but thus far he's performed. His K rate is way up as is his walk rate. Gearrin would be an upgrade over a couple players in our pen. Not bad for the money.
Greg Holland - I have to tip my cap to those on the Holland bandwagon along with Arizona for picking him for only 3.25M. He's been worth it posting a 1.80 ERA. Despite an elevated walk rate, his WHIP is down. His K rate is up. He's given up less hits and kept the ball in the park in his 15 innings. He would be one of our best relievers.
Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 14 innings, but has given up 9 hits and 2 runs in that span allowing for a 1.29 ERA.
Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness. The book is still out here.
Blake Parker - We know him. So far a win for the front office.
Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 10 innings to the tune of a 4.5 ERA thus far. Not a bad find in the value category. His peripherals all look pretty good and he's one of the few pitchers whose BB rate has dropped so far this season. I'm going with a bit of bad luck on the ERA, but he wouldn't present much of an upgrade to our pen.
David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He's yet to pitch.
Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's appeared in 17 games and only pitched 9 innings with an ERA of 6.
Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly. He's out a couple months due to a grade 2 strain of a lat muscle.
Adam Warren - Warren has been OK for the Padres with a 3.72 ERA. That's not special, nor are his peripherals, but he hasn't been horrible either. Not bad for 2.5M.

Of the 12 names on this list, there are only 3 clear misses at this point. Phelps was not expected to necessarily be pitching yet, so I'd say the jury is still out here. That may turn into a good deal for the Jays. Given their season though, he's likely going to be traded if he's pitching this summer. Holland, Kelley, and Parker have all been quite good for their teams. The other 6 fall under too soon to tell or value signings in that they haven't been bad, though they wouldn't necessarily be huge upgrades either.
 
One other trend that I noticed is that most relievers seemed to have noticeable increases in their BB rates. I'm not sure if that's more on an emphasis on Ks (which also were generally up), but relief pitching outcomes seemed much more skewed to higher BB and K rates over these pitcher's career norms. That appears, thus far, to the be the case across MLB as well, as RPs in general are averaging 3.93 BB per 9 along with 9.42 K per 9. Both are thus far significantly higher than last year.
 
Obviously, with these small samples, it's a bit too soon to tell on all of them, but for those of us (myself included) who wanted the Twins to do more, the results say that they would have likely missed.. The top tier has had some good performances, but has ultimately disappointed. The bottom tier has had about the same percentage of hits as the top tier along with some value guys who have performed as well as the top tier signings for much less. As much as I hate to say it, it looks like our front office hasn't done a bad job in this area.

Even a really great meal goes stale eventually.
 
I desperately wanted the Twins to do more to upgrade the bullpen this offseason, and was supportive of the idea of them pursuing Craig Kimbrel at one point, but I'm out now. I don't really want anything to do with him.
 
My frustration with the bullpen inactivity was never tied to any one particular reliever. Things have boiled own to that, since Kimbrel is the last man standing, but there were several attractive free agent bullpen pieces out there this winter. The Twins didn't sign any of them. I'm over it.
 
I'm not saying this bullpen is fine as it's currently constructed. While Ryne Harper has been a pleasant surprise and the backed trio of Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers and Trevor May has mostly looked good, there are some legit concerns about the depth.
 
But bringing in a project isn't the answer. Kimbrel is one of the greatest closers of all time. There's also a reason why he's still unemployed. Here are a few:
 
-He has to be rusty. This is item No. 1 with a bullet. There's no way he can possibly be sharp, I don't care what kind of simulated games he may be throwing.
 
-He had a 4.57 ERA in the second half and a 5.91 ERA in the postseason last year.
 
-His fastball velocity dropped from 98.72 mph in 2017 to 97.63 mph last year.
 
-It actually took him awhile to work up to that velocity last season, sitting below 97 mph through April. Yes, he's been working out, but I'd still be concerned it would take him some time to get up to full speed.
 
-His ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year.
 
-His line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year.
 
-He had a worse first-pitch strike rate (56.3%) than Fernando Rodney last year.
 
-He had the eighth-lowest rate of pitches in the zone (36.6%) of the 151 qualified relievers last year.
 
-He walked 12.6% of the batters he faced last year. That is horrible. It was the 20th-worst rate among 336 pitchers who logged more than 50 innings last year.
 
In nearly every single positive mention of the Twins I see, there is somebody in the comments who calls for Kimbrel. I get it, I just think the idea of Kimbrel doesn't even accurately reflect who he actually is at this point.
 
If the Twins seek to improve the bullpen, they should be looking for guys who are trending upward. Or at least, you know, active. Maybe Kimbrel will be great, I don't know, but I am comfortable with another team taking on that project. There are other ways to boost the bullpen.

A profound philosopher once proclaimed that “it just takes some time” and that while you might be “in the middle of the ride”, “everything, everything will be just fine.” “Jimmy Eat World lyrics? That isn’t philosophical.” Well, when I’ve been drinking a little on Friday nights, it starts to sound like Socrates to me so lay off of it. The name of that song is “The Middle”, a little diddy you may have heard of, and it was the inspiration for this article about where the Twins happen to find themselves in MLB’s landscape.
 
The Twins are of course quite a bit better than the trifecta of teams underneath them who have no interest in winning games but are still a fair bit worse than the Indians even if you squint really hard. The Indians also apparently are not very interested in winning more games considering the moves they have made this off-season and the fact that Jordan Luplow is currently one of their starting outfielders. Did I make that name up? Honestly, I checked Fangraphs and I’m still not convinced he’s a real player. But until there is a trade of either Trevor Bauer or Corey Kluber, the Indians will remain favorites for winning the AL Central again which leaves the Twins in the middle.
 
The Wild Card remains an opportunity but considering the Balrog that is the AL East along with a few strong contenders in the West like the Angels and the Athletics, that path may actually be harder than winning the division for Minnesota in 2019. Regression is prime for both the Athletics and the Rays, the former potentially following in the footsteps of Minnesota as the “performed better than everyone thought only to get moped up by the Yankees in a Wild Card game and then fall off the next year” team. But many things will have to go right for Minnesota to see the playoffs again. Is this a bad place to be in? I don’t think so.
 
Every year it seems that the MLB season is as much of a battle of quality players as it is a war of attrition, it comes as no surprise that the teams which make the playoffs are usually teams that avoided major injuries and were able to get consistent production from their major players. While betting on specific injuries and regression is not a good idea, betting on general injuries and regression among the contending teams is not necessarily a bad play. Just look at the 2018 Twins, who would have thought that Brian Dozier would forget how to hit a fastball, Jorge Polanco would get caught with too much O.J., Ervin Santana would lose a finger in the war, Jason Castro would bump knees with Teddy Bridgewater, Byron Buxton would be kidnapped at sporadic parts of the season, Miguel Sano having a metal rod shoved into his leg would be the 4th worst thing to happen to him that year, Logan Morrison would turn into a baked potato, and Lance Lynn would try to eat that potato.
 
The point is, there sits a bevy of teams who are perfect candidates for smiting by the baseball gods and if the Twins just outlast those teams in 2019, they could make the playoffs in a similar fashion to the 2017 team that was able to coast to a surprise Wild Card spot. The 2018 Oakland team saw this happen also when the Mariners fell off as they always do and when the Angels partnered with the local sports hospitals of the greater Anaheim area like they also always do. Once they were out of the way, the only other competition was a Rays team which was the sports equivalent of a Monty Python sketch.
 
After the addition of a boomstick, the 2019 Twins project by Fangraphs to be the 13th best team in baseball by fWAR at 36, .9 ahead of the 15th team (the A’s ironically) who are at 35.1, 2018 Josh Bell is the difference between them. The current free agents left are fairly uninspiring and will probably not make up enough of a difference to launch them into the upper echelon of teams. The farm system, while very very tasty, is probably a year away from having the major prospects grace the major league team. So the plan should be to put together a solid squad in 2018 which includes a reliever addition or two and then hope that things happen to fall in place to allow the 2019 team reach the playoffs while the prospects continue to develop and then hopefully cultivate in a 2020 team ready to take down the champ.

In one of their first moves this offseason, the Minnesota Twins plucked C.J. Cron off waivers after he was jettisoned by the Tampa Bay Rays. Following a 30-home run breakout campaign and having established relationships with the likes of Rocco Baldelli and Josh Kalk, the slugging first basemen seems like a decent gamble. What’s worth wondering though is whether Cron slots in as Joe Mauer’s replacement, or just another body on the 25 man. No matter what his role, the Twins do have Tyler Austin to worry about, and what’s next could be described as some uncertainty.
 
The Twins acquired Austin and pitching prospect Luis Rijo in exchange for Lance Lynn at the 2018 trade deadline. After seeing little playing time with the Yankees over the past three seasons, Austin got in consistent run with Minnesota down the stretch. From August through the end of the season, he played in 35 games for Paul Molitor’s club. His .782 OPS was a career best, and the nine longballs were also reflective of his power stroke. Now recently turned 27 years-old Austin looked to be in line for an expanded role with the Twins, but that may not be guaranteed.
 
Projecting the possible roster openings, we can guarantee that nine players fill out the lineup with another five in the starting rotation. A 13 man pitching staff has been customary for the organization of late, so an eight-man bullpen also seems probable. In that scenario there’s just three bench spots up for grabs, likely taken up by backup catcher Mitch Garver, utility man Ehire Adrianza, and fourth outfielder Jake Cave. At this point we’ve yet to consider Austin’s place meaning he’d need to start at either first base or designated hitter.
 
Although the Twins aren’t locked into Cron to start the season, a $4.8 million deal tendered to the former Ray suggests he’s in their plans. Whether that means he starts at first base or takes the bulk of the designated hitter reps remains to be seen. It would be my hope, and a logical expectation, that Minnesota is not yet done adding bats. Obviously, Jorge Polanco needs an up the middle partner, but a higher ceiling fit for first or DH still has plenty of promise. The duo of Cron and Austin would be passable, but the front office would also be plenty open for criticism if such a low reward avenue was embarked upon.
 
Next week the Winter Meetings commence in Las Vegas and we’re almost certainly (err, hopefully) going to see the free agent market pick up. Minnesota may let some of the chips fall first, but they’ll need to fill the necessary holes (middle infield, bullpen) at some point. Another bat entering the picture would only further signify what could be a suboptimal development for the one-time Yankees prospect.
 
For a guy like Austin these situations are never ideal. We saw him produce at a higher level down the stretch when given consistent playing time. He’s out of options however and could be up against a numbers crunch in a position Minnesota stands to benefit from improvement. A Cron and Austin tandem in the lineup would signify somewhat of a disappointing effort to acquire talent, but an improvement could make the stay in Twins Territory a quick one for Tyler.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In the comments there were some discussions that I replied to with the statement that baseball is an individual game played as a team sport. I thought it might be worth exploring.
 
Start with the Pitcher and Batter. It is true that the catcher is a third wheel in this conversation. While the batter is concentrating and the Pitcher is dealing the other players must wait, watch and react. They are not part of the play until the ball is hit. If it is a homerun, they are no factor, if the result is a walk there is no team involvement, if it is a strikeout, only the catcher participates. This Washington Post story indicates that batters strike out 22.6 percent of the time this year https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/05/04/mlb-batters-are-recording-more-strikeouts-than-hits-thats-a-big-problem-thats-unlikely-to-soon-change/?utm_term=.217f7a6331e3 That means that the team gets involved 78% of the time.
 
In one 2013 study they said that 68% of pitches are hit (I think that has changed a lot) but even is it is true, that means 32% of the time no one has anything to do except for the catcher to toss the ball back to the pitcher. http://www.highheatstats.com/2013/05/fraction-of-balls-put-in-play-is-at-an-all-time-low/
 
If it is a fly out - one non pitcher is involved, if it is a Home Run we cannot credit team work to those who watch it go over the fence. With increased launch angle and increased use of infield shifts the flyball has been increasing. Typically it is just one outfielder, unless there is a lack of communications.
 
A ground ball out is high on teamwork - usually two or more players are involved and with runners on base the intensity increases. Ground ball pitchers definitely require a higher teamwork percent. And double and triple plays ratchet up the teamwork.
 
Fangraphs says that balls hit are on average 21% line drive (one fielder) 44% ground balls, multiple players, 35% Fly balls (one fielder) and 11% infield flies (one player). https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/batted-ball/
 
If I assume that 22% are strikeouts and 78% are put in play and 44% of them are ground balls (34% of the total) the remainder are individual flyball experiences. My team work formula would put the majority of the plays into 2 player situations (taking strikeouts as a catcher/pitcher combo).
 
So flip the player to offense. Batting is about as individual as you can get unless the previous player set you up for an intentional walk. Sure we can have those smart at bats that take a lot of pitches and wear down the opposition and bring in the heat throwing relievers, we can have a sacrifice to put the runner in scoring position or a stolen base, but most of the time it is just throw and hit. I give offensive baseball an even lower team work quotient.
 
This reflects on the overall importance of the manager too. Put the right players in at the right position and quess who will be the most effective batters and relief pitchers and the job is done.
 
This quote captures some of the essence of the individual experience of the game - Baseball is a team game but, at the same time, it's a very lonely game: unlike in soccer or basketball, where players roam around, in baseball everyone has their little plot of the field to tend. When the action comes to you, the spotlight is on you but no one can help you. Chad Harbach
Read more at:
 
The Author of Group Genius - Dr R. Keith Sawyer says - "A baseball team doesn’t look like an improvising group, and frankly, doesn’t look much like a business team either. The reason is that in baseball, each team member’s contributions are relatively independent. As Pete Rose once said, “Baseball is a team game, but nine men who reach their individual goals make a nice team.” It’s rare that more than one player is involved in a play. More than just about any other team sport, the overall performance of the team is additive." https://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-r-keith-sawyer/is-baseball-really-a-team_b_50071.html
 
Peter Gammons in an excellent essay says "Unfortunately, the sad reality is that once a player starts his Minor League career, the game really changes. Minor league rosters change daily, with players being called up, sent down, as well as released. It is highly unlikely to play with a teammate for 3-4 years like in college, which only adds to the lack of the team game.
"Players become far more interested in their personal performance, than the performance of the team. While it is always more fun when the team wins, winning takes a back door to personal statistics as players are working towards individual promotions and making their way up the Minor League ranks, with the hopes of one day cracking a Major League roster.
"Front Office and Player Development personnel also take valuing personal performance over team performance in Minor League Baseball. They are far more concerned with the development of a young prospect who could one day make a big impact with the Major League Club, than whether their Single-A or Double-A affiliate is going to compete for the playoffs." http://www.gammonsdaily.com/baseball-is-it-a-team-game/
 
In 2017 Mookie Betts had the most put outs by a right fielder - 366. For a 162 game season if all games go 9 innings each team records 4374 outs. He recorded .08% of the teams outs. For most of the other 92 he was backing up or watching. And CFs on average handle 15 - 30 more outs per year. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-fielding-leaders.shtml
 
A final thought - how many players negotiate on the basis of their teamwork?

I happened upon this nice leaping stab by Polanco from a few days ago:
 
https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/07/03/2224124283/1530583378940/asset_2500K.mp4
 
Question: on a ball hit to the left side, does Brian Dozier have anything better to do than make a beeline for second base, on the small chance it's caught and they might try to double off the runner? The runner has to change direction, Dozier could have been close to full speed by that point. Seems like he was napping there.

When I was growing up, I thought Dick and Bert were awesome. They had the fun “Circle me Bert” shtick, seemingly great rapport with each other, and good timing on bringing excitement to the game. But, I was young - I didn’t know any better. This season is the first summer I’ve enjoyed diving into statistical truths in baseball. I think the analytical trend in the game has not been kind to our FSN announcing crew. It’s made them both increasingly bitter and more frequently inaccurate. Starting in April, I decided to make a list of falsehoods uttered by FSN contributors. I’ve come up with my top 5 at the midway point in the year, but hope many are added in the comments section below
 
1. Jack Morris claims you can’t measure spin rate.
 
This one was an absolute doozy and I believe almost every Twins Daily writer picked up on it and commented on it on Twitter. Jack claimed during a game that he didn’t think it was possible to accurately calculate the spin rate of either a batted ball or a pitch. This is on par with somebody saying they just don’t “believe” in climate change. Ridiculous.
 
2. Bert Blyleven compares Jake Odorizzi to Brad Radke multiple times
 
This is the one that kicked off this project. I could be mistaken, but I believe it was first in Odorizzi’s second start that Bert mentioned how similar he was to Radke. My immediate reaction was to look up prevalence of free passes in both players’ careers. Odorizzi has a career BB/9 of 3.1 (4.1 in 2018 so far). Now, this isn’t a ridiculously high number, but let’s compare in Radke’s career BB/9 – 1.6. Radke was a master of control; it was beautiful to watch. In 2005, in 200.2 IP, he only had 23 walks. Maybe he meant both pitchers were American and 6 feet, 2 inches tall, but I doubt it.
 
3. Torii Hunter has a strange take on launch angles.
 
This one was admittedly rather hilarious. Parker Hageman and Aaron Gleeman called my attention to it as I missed it live. Here is the quote: “Like I said, the launch angle is good for some people, but I think everybody can’t hit with the launch angle,” said Hunter. “I heard [Toronto Blue Jays third baseman] Josh Donaldson say he launches the ball. If you look at his swing, it really has no launch. It actually goes through the ball, and then it launches actually through the ball. But you can’t go after it with the launch.”
 
This isn’t even Torii’s hottest take in the world of sports. He once said (as a player for the Tigers) “But I can tell you this, I made love to my wife the other night and I caught a cramp in my hamstring. I actually put my leg out and kept performing. So there’s no excuse,” in response to Lebron James suffering cramps in the NBA Finals. Torii Hunter is one of my favorites and I enjoy having him on the broadcast, but seriously?
 
4. Bert Blyleven says Fernando Rodney doesn’t give a lot of free passes.
 
Just this last Monday against the Royals, Rodney was in to save a nice win for the Twins. During Rodney’s appearance (I believe on a 3-0 count), Bert blurted out that Rodney “doesn’t walk a lot of people.” Huh? Even to people who don’t check stats, Rodney has a reputation of making things interesting in save situations by walking batters. In fact, his career BB/9 is 4.4…definitely not a low walk rate.
 
5. Tim Laudner yells at the rulebook.
 
Now, I will admit this isn’t a falsehood. He just has a strong opinion on the rule change dealing with catchers and how they block the plate. The issue came up with Anthony Rizzo sliding and clipping the leg of Pirates’ catcher Austin Hedges. I included this on the list for two reasons: 1) it was hilarious how mad he got and 2) it goes with the theme of ex-players at FSN that can’t seem to progress with the times. It got to the point on Twins Live that Laudner was essentially getting worked up looking at the rule on a piece and paper and saying what a disgrace the change has been. We understand you’re mad, but calm down. The rules aren’t going to go back, so just accept.
Honorable Mention: Tim Laudner says the Twins swept a “very good” Orioles team

I don’t even need to say anything about this, do I?
 
Thus concludes my top 5 falsehood list. I hope you’ve gotten a kick out of our broadcast crew. For all the falsehoods, they are pretty good contributors and I enjoy the comparisons and theories every once in a while. Plus, we always have Cory Provus on play-by-play on the radio, and the occasional appearance of Justin Morneau in the TV booth (the eventual dream team, I hope).
 
What are some of your favorite contributions from our FSN crew? Let me know in the comments below!
 
-Miles

After the Cedar Rapids Kernels finished batting practice on a warm, humid July 4 afternoon, two of the most productive players on their roster agreed to sit down and talk about the season.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/GoreDobnak070418-600x400.jpg
Jordan Gore and Randy Dobnak go through Kernels pre-game workouts on July 4, 2018 (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
One, an infielder, has been hitting over .300 with an on-base percentage around .400 virtually all season. (And three days after the interview, his bags were packed for Chattanooga, where he’d been promoted to join former Kernels manager Tommy Watkins’ Lookouts.)
 
The other, a starting pitcher, is 6-2 on the season and leads the Kernels in innings pitched.
 
Unless you’re a pretty serious student of the Minnesota Twins’ minor league system or a Kernels season ticket holder, there’s a chance you’ve never heard of either of them.
 
Jordan Gore was selected by the Twins out of Coastal Carolina in the 17th round of the 2017 draft and Randy Dobnak never got a post-draft call at all after completing his college career at Alderson Broaddus University in West Virginia. They made the most of their college days on and off the field, both making the Dean’s List regularly at their respective schools.
 
Gore started his college career at South Carolina before transferring to Coastal Carolina in his hometown of Conway, SC, where he underwent Tommy John surgery and ended up sitting out the Chanticleers’ NCAA championship season in 2016. Having to sit out that championship season wasn’t as tough for Gore as one might think.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Gore062418a-600x400.jpg
Jordan Gore (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“Honestly you can say so,” Gore said, “but I’ve said this time and time again. That was best group of guys that I've ever been around as far as pulling for each other, working hard, all around good personalities and good people. It was probably better for me to sit back and watch how they did it. They taught me a lot about how to play the game the right way.
 
“I’ve got nothing but love for everybody at Coastal. I tell you what, it made me a lot better person and a player.”
 
Dobnak pitched for Alderson Broadus University in Philippi, West Virginia, where he had a career 26-12 record and set a Great Midwest Athletic Conference record with 284 career strikeouts.
 
You wouldn’t fault Gore, a shortstop by trade, if he had been more than a little troubled by the fact that he was drafted by an organization that also used the first overall pick of the 2017 draft to select a guy who plays the same position. But Gore says he wasn’t concerned at all at the prospect of trying to work his way up through the Twins farm system virtually in tandem with top prospect Royce Lewis.
 
“Honestly, I was just happy to get the call because after my last (college) game it kind of hit me, man this could be the last time I lace my spikes up,” Gore said, concerning his draft position, “and Royce is a great guy. It’s great to be playing with him. It’s a lot of fun.”
 
Gore didn’t exactly follow the draft moment by moment, waiting to hear his name called, but admits being relieved when it was over.
 
“I tried to keep my mind off of it,” he recalled. “I tried to just stay away from thinking about it too much. When I finally did get the call, it was a lot off my shoulders because you can try not to think about it as much as you want, but it's always going to be there.”
 
While Gore had to be patient on draft day, Dobnak wasn’t all that surprised that he didn’t get a call when the draft had been completed.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Dobnak062718a-600x400.jpg
Randy Dobnak (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“Being in the mountains of West Virginia, there were a few teams that were talking to me or my coaches,” he explained. “But when they’d try and come see me play, we’d get rained out, snowed out. too cold. So, I didn’t really know what to expect (on draft day).”
 
Not being drafted didn’t mean Dobnak was ready to call it a career, however. He used a connection made in his freshman year of college to land a spot on the pitching staff of the Utica Unicorns, an independent minor league team in a four-team league about an hour outside Detroit, Michigan.
 
“I played there for like a month. I had played with (the manager’s) son. He was my catcher my freshmen and sophomore year (of college). After a freshman year tournament, we were all out to eat and his dad was like, ‘I want you come play for my team once you graduate.’ Three years later, I'm like, 'Alright, let's do this thing.'”
 
A few weeks later, he signed with the Twins and he spent the rest of last summer in Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids.
 
Dobnak put up a combined ERA of 2.43 and a WHIP of 0.96 in six appearances (four as a starter) at the two 2017 stops and has followed that up with a very solid first three months with the Kernels this summer. In 14 appearances (11 of them as a starter), he has a 3.74 ERA and has struck out 49 batters, while walking just 13.
 
He has averaged seven innings of work in his last five starts for the Kernels.
 
At the time of his promotion to Chattanooga on July 7, Gore was hitting .307 with a solid .770 OPS and had a .333 average and 1.044 OPS in the month of July. While splitting infield time with Royce Lewis, Andrew Bechtold and Jose Miranda, Gore has made 33 appearances at second base, 23 at shortstop, five at third base and even made one late-game mop up appearance on the mound for Cedar Rapids.
 
On a team seemingly filled with very young talent, Gore and Dobnak have stood out as 23-year-olds and their manager, Toby Gardenhire, has appreciated the level of effort and leadership they’ve brough to the field, as well as the clubhouse.
 
“He’s been great,” the manager said of Dobnak. “He grabs the ball and goes out there and does whatever you want him to do. He works really hard every day, shows up ready to go. He's the epitome of the guy that you want on your team. He doesn't say much, he just goes out there and does his job every day.
 
“His skill level has been great, he's done a great job, but the big thing for us is that he's very professional with everything that he does. When you have this many young guys on a team like we do that you're trying to teach how to be professionals, then you need guys like him where you can say, ‘Hey you see how Dobnak does this? You see what he does? You see how he goes about his business? That's the way it needs to be. That's how you have to act.’
 
“So, aside from the fact that he's doing great, which is all credit to him and how hard he works, he's just a great person. He's a great leader for us.”
 
Gardenhire offered a similar strong endorsement for Gore.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Gore070418a-600x400.jpg
Jordan Gore (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“Gore’s the same way,” his manager said. “He's ‘game on.’ He's funny, but the way he goes about his business, the way he goes out and gets it every day - when you put him in the lineup, you know what you're going to get from him. You’re going to get effort. Dives all over the place and will do anything to win baseball games.
 
“You would think that with baseball players in professional baseball, you're going to have a whole group of guys that just want to try to win games, that will do anything for the team, but it's not always like that. That's a taught trait. You either have something in you that says ‘Hey, I'll do whatever it takes to win this game' or you have to learn that. He's one of those guys, he just has it. That’s what he wants. He wants to win and he'll do anything.
 
“I always call those guys dirtballs. He's driving all over the place. You're not going to see him with his uniform clean for very long in a game. That's one of those things, again, when you have a whole bunch of young talented guys like we have, to have a guy like that who shows them the way. They see him diving all over the place. He's mad when we lose and he gets fired up. They see that and it starts to kind of rub off on them. That's what you want.”
 
A couple of relatively unheralded players on a team stocked with highly-regarded younger prospects could be forgiven if they felt some pressure to perform well enough to get noticed by their front office, but neither Gore nor Dobnak sounded like that was the case for them.
 
“I don't think it's pressure,” Gore said. “Speaking for myself, I come out here and want to work hard. This is fun for us! I mean it’s the best job in the world, right?
 
“Yep,” concurred Dobnak.
 
“I mean, come on, who wouldn’t want to come out here and work hard?” asked Gore, “because when you work hard, you tend to play well. It makes it a lot more fun.”
 
Neither player is concerning himself too much with what’s going on with the Twins’ affiliates at the higher levels, however.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Dobnak070418a-400x600.jpg
Randy Dobnak (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“I check out the scores and see how some of the guys I know are doing,” conceded Dobnak. “I just think if you prove to your coaches or front office that you’re good enough to move up, they’ll move you up. But all the guys, they work hard. They all work the same. You go out there and do whatever you’ve got to do. Compete.”
 
“I try not to think about (promotions), I’ll be honest with you,” said Gore. “I’m around a great bunch of guys every day and it’s a lot of fun. It doesn’t really pop into your head much. We’re just out here trying to win and we’ve been doing that here lately."
 
Given that Gore earned a promotion three days after those comments, his approach obviously worked for him.
 
One thing that comes through in virtually every conversation you have with any of this group of Kernels is how much they enjoy their teammates. It’s a close group, but even in the tightest of clubhouses, there will be differences. Gore and Dobnak are not completely in agreement in one aspect of the game.
 
Dobnak’s Twitter profile includes a reference to the hashtag #BanTheDH. Gore doesn’t sound ready to give away the at-bats he gets on days he DHs.
 
“Let the pitchers hit,” said Dobnak.
 
And why? “Because it’s more fun for the pitchers. When you grow up, you pitch, you hit, you play the infield!”
 
It’s all about the pitchers, right Jordan?
 
“No offense to the pitchers out there, but you’re probably giving up an out every time,” a smiling Gore responded.
“I'm just kidding,” the professional hitter in the conversation added. “We've got a lot of good athletes on the (pitching staff), I’m sure they could probably pick up a stick and hit it.”
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

Yesterday a picture was leaked of a napkin left at an Applebees in Santa Monica, California, last month while the Twins were visiting the Los Angeles Angels. The napkin was left there inadvertently by, reportedly, Twins Major League Coach Jeff Pickler who was dining at the restaurant with other members of the Twins coaching staff.
 
The napkin had pictured, among other things, sketches of proposed fielding alignments. Some of the alignments were titled “Ryan Suter,” “Mexico,” and “Mauer.”
 
 
Jeff Pickler was hired during the 2016-2017 offseason by the Minnesota Twins as a coach to help with various aspects of the Twins at the major league level, but most notably by studying tapes and determining outfielder positioning for a talented trio which included Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler to start the season.
 
The Applebees server, who requested to be left anonymous, stated that Pickler “Seemed like a nice guy…” but was “a crappy tipper” and “deserves to have his strategies exposed.”
 
One anonymous bench coach for a Major League Baseball team commented, “These are ****ing stupid. Except for the Mauer one. We’ll probably use that one.”
 
Shown below are graphics for the various shifts sketched on the discovered napkin:
 
"Ryan Suter"
 

 
"Sieve"
 

 
"T-ball"
 

 
"Mauer"
 

 
"Mexico"
 

 
"Broadcast Interview"
 

 
"Chris Davis"
 

 
"Batman"
 

 
Twins coach Jeff Pickler could not be reached for comment for this article.

By now, most of us have noticed how Matt Magill has been a solid arm in the Twins bullpen this season. He made his first appearance of 2018 in a clunker of a game (which I attended ) on April 29th against the Cincinnati Reds. He threw 2.1 innings that Sunday and gave up just 3 hits and 0 earned runs, adding 2 punch-outs as well. So far this year with the Twins, he’s given up a total of 3 ER over 23.2 IP, for an ERA of 1.14.
Magill was drafted in 2008 in the 31st round to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He had two briefs stints in the majors with both the L.A. Dodgers (2013) and the Cincinnati Reds (2016) before joining the Minnesota Twins (2018). During that time, he had ERA’s of 6.51 and 6.23 respectively. He’s clearly been around for a while; so why the recent success on the bump?
In my mind, there’s two simple reasons:
He’s throwing more strikes:In 2013 as a starting pitcher, Magill gave 28 free passes in 27.2 IP (BB/9 = 9.11 – ouch.)
In 2016 as a relief pitcher, he had a BB/9 of 10.38 in just 4.1 IP
Now, in 2018, he currently holds a BB/9 of 1.3 – and that is fun to watch

[*]His stuff is a lot better:
His fastball velocity has an average of 95.1 MPH so far in 2018, compare that to 93.1 MPH in 2016, and 91.8 MPH in 2013.
He’s getting more movement on both his 4-seam fastball, and his “cutter” or hard slider. Check out the charts from FanGraphs below on the horizontal movement for Magill's pitches (2018 first, 2016 second). For your reference, a positive value on horizontal movement means the ball will be moving away from a right-handed hitter, and therefore a negative value means the ball is tailing in on a righty.



 




 
Clearly, in 2018 he’s getting more movement on that cut fastball (FC), slightly more run in on the righties, and again more velocity with the 4-seamer (FA). This could be a contributing factor to why he's been so effective this season at producing weak contact (.219 BABIP - Nice!).
 
Check out the vertical movement below (2018 first, 2016 second):
 




 
Again, the notable difference is with the cut fastball (FC).
Magill is throwing the ball over the plate, and he has increased his velocity considerably, while getting more movement on his cutter. This is a recipe for continued success and I believe it’s time for Molitor to start utilizing him in higher leverage spots. Can somebody explain to me why he hasn’t gotten this chance yet?
Let me know what you think in the comments!
-Miles

https://www.loc.gov/item/prn-18-036/?loclr=eanotw The library of Congress has given us a historical gift - the scouting reports of Branch Rickey. He was a vital part of baseball history, even beyond signing Jackie Robinson and this is where you can check it out.
 
Here are some notes from the introduction and entries that struck me:
Rickey’s 1963 scouting report on Hank Aaron, who broke Babe Ruth’s long-standing home run record of 714 in 1974. Rickey wrote "Surely one of the greatest hitters in baseball today. Can hit late with power, - good wrists. But in spite of his hitting record and admitted power ability, one cannot help think that Aaron is frequently a guess hitter."
A 1955 scouting report on Roberto Clemente, who amassed 3,000 hits in his Hall of Fame career for the Pittsburgh Pirates
A report dated March 30-31, 1964, on future National Basketball Association great Dave DeBusschere, where Rickey predicted that DeBusschere “should become a corking good major league pitcher.”
For Hall of Famer Bob Gibson, Rickey noted on March 14, 1964, “when trying out young players… scouts and coaches would keep in mind Bob Gibson as a model for comparison and rate the prospect’s stuff accordingly.”
About Richie Allen - “Rollie Hemsley at Indianapolis, Bill Adair at Toronto, Larry Shepard at Columbus, Kerby Farrell at Buffalo and Harry Walker at Atlanta all believe that outfielder Allen is the best major league prospect in the International League. A colored boy, very young, and belongs to Philadelphia. He has extraordinary power to all fields. Arm not great, but adequate. Highly desirable in any deal with Philadelphia. I am sorry not to have been able to see this boy in action, but rating give to the player by baseball men generally put him immediately as a regular in any major league outfield. I would risk a heavy deal to have the Cardinals Get this player.”
Minnesotan Twins 2B Bernie Allen – “Tall boy from Purdue. Left hand hitter, has power and I believe he can outrun Rollins. I doubt if he is a .300 hitter. Hit .269 in 1962, Not hitting a lick this year…”
Bob Allison – “A 275 hitter with exceptional power. Looks the part of a great athlete. Right hander all the way. He has everything it takes to be a long time major league regular.”
Earl Battey – “A big colored catcher. Looks overweight, but has a remarkable action. Quick and has power at the plate, plenty of it. Looks like he likes to play. I can imagine him in a World Series.”
Minnesota born, Yankee – John Blanchard – “If Blanchard’s habits were good and his team relationship satisfactory, St Louis could use him. I would not take him unless I were permitted to have a conversation with the player with results satisfactory to myself.”
Harmon Killebrew – “A big right hand hitter with as much distance power as any man in the game. Strikes out a great deal. I would not be interested in obtaining his contract in any kind of possible trade. I don’t want him at the price.”

 
It will take a lot of time to sort out everything, but this is a very personal glimpse into the game in the early 60's.