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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    Exactly what I came here to say. You are describing Mark Guthrie in 1992. Not a mop-up guy whose performance level is unlikely to matter much, but a multi-inning, effective reliever who lets you survive a short start without sacrificing either that game or the whole next week of bullpen effectiveness.
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    One of the few having Miranda this high. But all the projections have him in the top 4 in WAR, so you may be right. I agree on the high floor. Part of what I was curious about was whether anyone sees the ceiling as an actually dangerous lineup. Maybe that is less important than avoiding the wasteland of last September's lineups, or the lineups against lefties all year long.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    Very thorough, thank you! I thought Buxton batting cleanup was a no-brainer, but a lot of people still dreaming of him hitting leadoff. You nail the reasoning for cleanup - he is the best power hitter we have, and it doesn't hurt that some of that SLG comes from taking an extra base. Even the analytics/simulators seem to like your best hitters at 2, 4, and 1, with OBP being the decider for batting higher It looks like you also like Larnach over Kepler. That seems a popular opinion in this thread
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    Julien leading off would be nice, if the minor league numbers translate.
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    "Likely peak" is more the spirit of the question, or I would have 2019 Kepler batting fifth :) I was going to say Lewis would push Larnach out of the lineup, but good-case probably has Larnach better than Kepler. The FO might be hoping Kepler is more tradeable by mid-summer with this lineup in mind.
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    I'm not sold on trading away Polanco and hoping on Julien, but it is yours to dream. My guess is best Miranda > best Larnach > best 2023 Lee, but not outlandish to flip this over.
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    It's getting time to speculate on the Opening Day lineup, so let's try with a twist: given this 40-man roster, what is the lineup you dream on - peak performances, no injuries, no managerial biases or brain farts? Mine: Polanco 2B Correa SS Kirilloff 1B Buxton CF Gallo LF Miranda 3B Larnach DH Vazquez C Kepler RF Thoughts? Is there a better DH option than Larnach? Solano? Julien? Would the defense/offense tradeoff be better with Farmer at 3B and Miranda at DH? Is there a better leadoff option than Polanco? Do you stack Buxton and Correa back to back? Do you move Gallo up to third and ride the OBP? Is peak Kepler better than this?
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    As a fan, it's always hard to judge, but my eye test says that the baserunning and defense are not being executed to these players' talents, which I put down to preparation level, and see as the manager's responsibility. How much of that is minor leaguers being thrown into the fire due to injury? Hard to tell. But I suspect that too many meltdowns and gaffes in close games or against tough competition are in the offing. By the numbers, I know that our baserunning is abysmal. Anyone got other evidence to support my grumpy bias?
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    Well, if the Twins want everyone throwing 100, with a frisbee slider they throw half the time, then they are *all* gonna be relief pitchers. In which case maybe just lean into it and piggyback 4 starters with 4 other starters, and have a 5-man one-inning pen. They actually have the personnel this year to do exactly that: Ryan, Gray, PLopez, Maeda as primaries Mahle, Ober, Varland, Winder as secondaries Duran, JLopez, Alcala, Thielbar, Pagan as the pen With SWR, Henriquez, Jax, Moran, Megill, Santana, Sands, and Balazovic in St Paul Never gonna happen, but they aren't going to suddenly start stressing tricky 92 MPH fastballs that let pitchers go 7 innings, either. Le sigh.
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    "Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse." I like how you worked in a real post-game Baldelli quote.
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    Even without injuries, is he maybe competition for Gordon's roster spot?
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV ... 1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV Cue "that escalated quickly" meme
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    Nice, unexpected observation! I wonder how many of those 16 infield dots in the spray chart were when he was shifted. Fun to imagine the havoc in opposing infields, and the frustration of pitchers deciding whether to pitch up to avoid a .400 average on grounders or down to avoid upper deck home runs. Aside: can someone interpret the spray chart dots for me? Are they where the ball hit the ground first, or where it was fielded? I'm guessing number 1, but I don't want to assume...
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    That is exactly how I read this
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    Thanks for the well researched and fascinating history. And the reference to Foster besting Rube Waddell reminded me of this link that the stats lovers should find fascinating: https://www.baseball-reference.com/articles/negro-leagues-major-leagues-todd-peterson.shtml The link provides statistical evidence that the Negro Leagues were at least equal to the white "major leagues" of their time. Wonderfully done and eye opening for those of us raised on legends of Hornsby, Ruth, and Cobb, but not Foster, Gibson, and Paige.
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    I don't know whether I agree, but I like this bold, optimistic take.
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    Wallner would be the other player who could push in, but less likely given he is also a left-handed corner outfielder. The acquisition of Taylor keeps both Celestino and Garlick off of a healthy roster, IMO
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Yep, this is what I am thinking if Kirilloff cannot perform. My other thought is don't sacrifice good, or even adequate, defense elsewhere to make your next first baseman. So yes to Julien. But no to Gallo, Larnach, Lewis, or Lee. As for Miranda or Polanco, you need to have a replacement (Lewis) with *better* defense to make it make sense. Can anyone tell me where Wallner would fit? Too good a defender to sacrifice to first base, or a possible option that doesnt cost you elsewhere?
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    I don't mind at all that Miranda has been handed third base, especially with Farmer as a backup. However, Urshela over Gallo at the same price is a no-brainer on this roster. I wonder if other teams are lowballing the Kepler offers because they see the obvious roster crunch and they know the Twins must deal. Would love to know what the offers look like.
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    Zactly. Seriously, though, it means Miranda and Ryan surpassed Lopez, Gray, Vazquez, Gallo, Duran, Kepler, Maeda, Mahle, Larnach, and Kirilloff. Someone on that list has to have 3 WAR, right?
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Miranda, and Ryan. More a wish than a prediction because it means the defense has been healthy and superb and Ryan breaks out.
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    I agree with the sentiment, but I won't complain if Kirilloff, Miranda, or Ryan surprise us with a 5 WAR season. If they make the leader board with 3 WAR, then it's been ugly again.
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    These moves create a situation where each roster spot is held by someone whose floor is closer to "average value" than "replacement value."
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    Maybe Kirilloff third if he shows he can, just to break up the only righties we have that can hit.
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    This is true, but it does leave Wallner blocked, and someone (Celestino?) DFA'd to make room on the 40. Maybe the Twins are thinking that Kepler, Gallo, Gordon, Larnach, and Kirilloff are auditioning to keep their roster spot through the trade deadline, and when Lewis comes back. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to go that way
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