TwerkTwonkTwins

I had the opposite view, but this is an interesting stance with some context as to why he may be slipping defensively. I'm concerned by his surgery as well. At this point, I think all defensive metrics point to him being consistently below average at SS. He may have reached a low in 2019 because of the injuries, but I'm not sure if his peak ability has proven to be league average. I'd argue that the time to test him at 2B is fast approaching, especially if you have weak spots at other infield positions. It would help his range, his shoulder, and the team.

As I mentioned in Part 1 of this Defense Evaluation series, the Minnesota Twins were in the bottom third of teams when it came to aggregate fielding ability. The first post in the series focused on the team's weakest position of LF, manned by Eddie Rosario. I determined that while Rosario had a terrible year defensively, it can be alleviated with a healthy year of Buxton and Kepler, along with mixing him in at RF on occasion. Now that Statcast has released it's Outs Above Average (OAA) metric for infielders, we can evaluate a new subject with a stronger level of panic. The Minnesota Twins have one of the weakest infields in the game when it comes to defense, led by Jorge Polanco. Unlike Rosario, Polanco does not have defensive darlings around him that mask his weaknesses The unfortunate truth is that his shortcoming actually match up with Sano and Arraez, painting a troubling picture of what the Twins infield defense could look like in 2020. Let's jump into how Polanco is graded, how this impacts the infield defense picture, and potential steps to improve it in 2020 and beyond. 2019 SS - Jorge Polanco (-3.9 Def, 1 DRS, - 15.7 UZR/150, -16 OAA) Jorge Polanco is a great player, valued at 4.0 fWAR. However at age 26, his defensive ability at shortstop has graded out as poor nearly every year of his career. You can often find Polanco when sorting by the bottom of defensive leaderboards. Polanco had the lowest UZR/150 among qualified shortstops in 2019, according to FanGraphs. His UZR/150 has remained negative in every year since he's been a starter, but the trend is concerning over the past three years: 2017: -5.7 UZR/150 2018: -11.3 UZR/150 2019: -15.7 UZR/150 This morning, Polanco had the dubious honor of reaching the bottom of another defensive leaderboard. When you sort Statcast's new Infield Outs Above Average metric, Jorge Polanco is the first face you see after filtering for the lowest value, at -16. He's tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the lowest in the MLB, and followed by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Didi Gregorious (both at -13). Statcast shows that Polanco struggles with balls hit laterally, but his weakest area is balls that are hit in front of him, where he has a -9 OAA. That was his largest area of drop-off in 2019, compared to his 2017 and shortened 2018. I'm not sure how Polanco can rapidly improve handling balls hit in front of him, apart from playing in on the dirt. Maybe he struggles with charging weakly hit balls. Perhaps the Twins positioned him further back so he could reach more balls in play to his left and right. And yet, those balls hit to his left and right were also a concern. The concern grows when you consider his teammates at 3B and 2B. Sano has an OAA of -5, with -1 attributed to balls hit in Polanco's direction. Arraez has a worse OAA (-6) with less time spent in the infield, and his OAA is weighted heavily by balls hit to his left (towards Polanco). When you factor in the limitations of Polanco's lateral movement to both sides of the infield, the below average defense of Sano and Arraez rapidly compound into a mess. The Twins 2020 IF defense is not loved by Statcast, with a cumulative OAA of -20, even when factoring in Marwin's +7 OAA at 3B last season. That's generous, because Gonzalez is the starting 1B as of early January. It's clear to see why the Twins were/are interested in Josh Donaldson. Donaldson posted an OAA of 8 with the Braves at 3B in 2019, with +3 OAA on balls hit in Polanco's direction. On Statcast paper, that would help neutralize Polanco's -4 OAA on balls hit toward third base. Sano would be shifted to 1B, where he's no clear bet to play Gold Glove-caliber defense, but does have a cumulative 1 OAA at the position dating back to 2016 in 223 innings. Looking beyond Donaldson, and even 2020, the case for Polanco to be shifted away from SS is compelling. Polanco has been defined as one of the league's worst defensive shortstops for multiple seasons in multiple metrics. The fact he's currently recovering from offseason ankle surgery doesn't exactly help matters. I would argue that the decision to move Polanco from SS to 2B - and sooner rather than later - could help matters. His new position would allow him more time to reach balls hit in, and would help with his limited range. The shift would require an offseason addition(s), as there's no clear internal SS replacement for 2020. If the Twins aren't able to sign Donaldson, I would target defensively skilled shortstops. Miguel Rojas, Nick Ahmed, and more come to mind - but that's another blog post for another day. That could result in the new defensive alignment of: 3B - mix of Gonzalez/Arraez (with the other taking a place in multi-positional musical chairs) SS - new defensively skilled acquisition to be named later 2B - Polanco 1B - Sano That new alignment may look like nonsense to some of you, but running out the current infield depth chart is recipe for disaster. Moving Polanco away from his natural position of SS is a matter of when, not if. He's under team control through 2025, and I can almost guarantee he won't be manning SS in the latter years. Why not minimize his defensive liability in 2020, when all recent defensive statistics suggest the time may be now?

Agreed. He'll make some sliding plays that will impress you. You are correct about his UZR. The only metric Fangraphs grades him favorably in is rARM/ARM.

The 2019 Minnesota Twins were an exceptional team. However, they were exceptional despite their defense, not because of it. Starting pitching is receiving the bulk of the worry this offseason, but should the state of the team's defense get the same treatment? The Twins were 21st among MLB teams in Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) in 2019, with a total of -9.1. That's the lowest among all playoff teams (the Dodgers were the closest, ranking 19th with -5.0 Def). FanGraphs considers the -9.1 Def to be in between Below Average and Poor, sadly placing closely to a Poor ranking. Other metrics weren't as kind, either. The Twins placed 20th with a -1.1 UZR/150, and 19th with a -7 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). You get the picture that the Twins were in the lower third oft teams when it comes to aggregate defensive ability. In this series, I'll evaluate a few of the positions where the Twins could stand to improve defensively. I'll begin with the largest culprit of negative defensive value, Eddie Rosario. LF - Eddie Rosario (-11.1 Def, -6 DRS, -7.5 UZR/150, -17 OOA) Rosario was clearly troubled in LF last year, according to most defensive metrics and the basic eye test. How much of this was due to his mid-season ankle injury? That's hard to say. It almost certainty didn't help matters, and neither did age. Rosario has lost 1.4 feet per second since 2015, according to Statcast Spring Speed. Most of that drop-off occurred in between 2018 and 2019. Sprint speed clearly effects defense, but how so? Statcast has another metric of "Outfielder Jump". Rosario ranked in the 13th percentile of Outfielder Jump, and the reasons are probably due in part to being... slower. Components of Outfielder jump including reaction, burst and route. Rosario showed significant decreases in reaction and burst from 2018 to 2019, mirroring the trend in his sprint speed. Add that together, and Statcast harshly rates Rosario in Outs Above Average (OAA). He had a positive OAA of 4 in 2016, but ranked 225th in MLB with a -17 OAA last season. FanGraphs and Statcast are lined up in evaluating Rosario as a lower-tier defensive outfielder. FanGraphs ranked Rosario as the 3rd worst LF in Def last season, ahead of Domingo Santana and Shin-Soo Choo. FanGraphs does seems to value one area of Rosario's defense that matches up with the eye test. Dude has a cannon. Rosario is tied with Kyle Schwarber with a 5 rARM (Outfield Arms Runs Saved). Arm strength typically isn't effected by ankle injuries, and doesn't age as poorly as sprint speed. Aside from the arm, are there any reasons to be optimistic about Rosario's defense? Rosario's impact to the Twins outfield defense can be lessened with a healthy Buxton and Kepler, both of whom rank among the best defenders at their respective positions. However, there's a huge emphasis on a healthy Buxton and Kepler. Without outstanding partners in the OF, Rosario's defense becomes more a liability. When neither outfielder was healthy in September, Baldelli began to start Rosario in RF. Rosario made 10 September appearances in RF, and accumulated 89 innings at the position throughout 2019. FanGraphs was kinder to Rosario's play in RF, although it was a much smaller sample size than his time in LF. Below are how his stats compared between the two corner positions: LF: 1048 Inn, -11.1 Def, -6 DRS, -7.5 UZR/150 RF: 89 Inn, 0.2 Def, -1 DRS, 13.5 UZR/150 Perhaps the sample of Rosario in RF was too small and the defensive metrics would have regressed with time. Maybe, just maybe, Rocco Baldelli was onto something. I suppose we'll find out if mixing Rosario into RF was experimentation, or the start of a new defensive alignment even when every starting outfielder is healthy.

I debated putting in Betts in the "OF Additions" section where I mention better players can be had in trades. Boston will understandably want the moon for 1 season of him. I think it begins with Lewis and/or Kirilloff. I think Mookie will want to test Free Agency in 2021, as well.

Max Kepler was arguably the Minnesota Twins 2019 MVP last year (according to this particular website). He made huge offensive gains, provided incredible RF defense, and led the team with a 4.4 fWAR. Kepler's ability to step in for an injured Buxton in the second half saved their playoff hopes. Could Kepler's multi-positional flexibility come into play again in 2020? Surely it will, and I'd argue it could extend from the outfield to the infield. First base is a long-lost friend for Kepler. It is the weakest position in the Twins depth chart as it currently stands today. Let's walk through the pros and cons of plugging in Kepler at first base. Pros Keep Kepler Healthy Kepler was battling ailments all year last year, despite providing a huge lift when filling in for his injured comrade, Buxton. He had off-and-on knee issues in the beginning of the year and ended up missing the vast majority of September with a general shoulder injury (Rhomboid Muscle Strain). This injury affected his ability to swing a bat, and I’m sure it also impacted his ability to throw and field. We all saw the effects in the ALDS, as Kepler was hitless against the Yankees. Mixing in Kepler as a 1B option would allow him to rest his knee and reduce throwing situations. Playing 1B isn’t necessarily equal to a day of Rocco’s “rest and recovery”, but it must be a breather from knee and shoulder issues that an outfielder will encounter throughout the season. Allowing Kepler to play a less demanding position will increase his impact on the team throughout the year. Imagine his 4.4 fWAR total if he had played throughout September. There are effective OF additions that could boost the lineup. I know the current focus is on a certain southern 34-year-old third baseman. Or maybe it’s the #3 - #5 spots in the opening day rotation. I think there are ways to add value to this Twins team through a few remaining free agent outfielders. Having Kepler play more 1B could create an opportunity to mix in another potent bat. Marcell Ozuna is the top remaining OF addition on the market. He would definitely help the lineup – a 110 wRC+ and .337 wOBA are nothing to sneeze at. Ozuna has lost an edge defensively from his Marlins days, recording -5 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2019. Maybe an argument could be made with switching him from LF to RF. Another intriguing name is Yasiel Puig. Puig had a down year in 2019, with a1.2 fWAR and a wRC+ of 101 (career average of 124). He’s not as defensively challenged as Ozuna, but his offensive numbers were quite pedestrian in 2019 after a decent 2018. I’d argue that he can be acquired on a shrewd one-year bounce back contract, as his market has shriveled. Maybe I’m more interested in seeing the arms of both Rosario and Puig in the same outfield. And the tongue GIFs. I’ll admit that I’m not too thrilled about either of those names above, but these are just two top-of-brain examples of how the front office can become more creative in adding value if Kepler’s playing time is reallocated to 1B. The trade market could offer more intriguing options. Marwin Remains A “Multi-Positional Everyday Player” Marwin Gonzalez is valuable because he can fill in across the diamond. He’s currently slated to receive the lion’s share of 1B starts as the roster appears in January. A career OPS+ of 101 and .418 SLG don’t necessarily scream everyday 1B. He also had a -2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a -5.3 UZR/150 at 1B in 2019. Rocco received some heat from the press last spring training when he deemed Gonzalez a “Multi-Positional Everyday Player”. It would be wise to allow him to plug holes as needed again in 2019, rather than limiting him at 1B. The cool kid in LA is doing it. Let's look at another LH OF, one who just happened to win the 2019 NL MVP. Since 2017, Cody Bellinger's MLB games by positions break down like this: Outfield: 263 - RF: 125 - CF: 107 - LF: 40 First Base: 239 Bellinger is a superior player, but Kepler and Bellinger have a similar power/speed skill set that make the 1B/OF blend work. They are among an exclusive club of MLB players that do. Both the Los Angeles and Minnesota organizations place a premium on versatility, and these two players are major reasons for that. The Los Angeles Dodgers have remained a powerhouse in the NL West for the better part of the decade due to their depth and flexibility. The Falvine regime has attempted the same by signing swiss-army-knife-man Marwin Gonzalez last year and increasing the positional flexibility of Luis Arraez, Ehire Adrianza, and Willians Astudillo. Injuries are inevitable, but versatility takes some of the sting out of a roster when they occur. Imitating how the Los Angeles Dodgers utilize the reigning NL MVP isn’t necessarily a bad thing, is it? Cons Kepler has minimal MLB experience at 1B Kepler has 1B experience. MLB experience? Some, but not so much. Emphasis on the not so much. Kepler has played 1B as a Minnesota Twin 3 times in his career. 0 of those appearances have been starts, for a total of 4.1 innings. I’m hoping that his multiple years playing 1B in the minors would ingrain the fundamentals of the position in his brain. We’ve heard about his genetic athleticism for years. However, it’s hard to ignore that he hasn’t played 1B since a 0.1 inning cameo in 2018. Kepler was among the best defenders in RF RF is clearly Kepler’s best defensive home. Kepler was third in UZR/150 in RF, and his 7 Outs Above Average (OAA) were tied for 10th among MLB leaders. Including him in the 1B mix would force the team to hand more innings to an inferior OF defender. This is probably my largest concern, because the Twins have an outstanding OF defense with a healthy Buxton and Kepler. Rosario is a defensive liability, but that liability is limited if Buxton can be shaded Rosario's way, as Kepler can track many balls down in RF. Verdict? I think there’s plenty of offseason left, and Donaldson is Plan A as of now. However, we’ve seen various Plan As fall through the cracks over the past few months. I think the thought of Kepler at 1B has to be entertained if an “impact” infielder can’t be acquired. I would still slate Kepler in as the opening day RF, but I believe that giving him a sizeable share of 1B would allow him to receive more rest and durability, create and maintain a more versatile roster, and allow the front office to get creative.

Big series for Trevor May. He hasn't been used in the last 5 days. This could determine if he is in the "Duffey" tier or one of the last go-to arms.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen was the dominant topic yesterday for...various reasons. It looks like it will remain a dominant topic as we head toward the July trade deadline. This blog series will be all about the Twins bullpen, but won't be concerned with internal or external additions. I wanted to take a look at how the coaching staff is tweaking the pitch selection of the current Twins relievers, and how that compares to the usage across their careers. I won’t pretend to know the reasons why pitch selection is changing, but it’s interesting to see the trends with a third-ish of the season under the belt. Disclaimer: I am by no means a pitching analyst, and I have just started to dive into the world of Baseball Savant. I highly recommend you try it out, too. You'll probably find some things I am missing. Taylor Rogers No need to introduce this guy. Taylor Rogers has become a relief ace after years as a marginal starting pitching prospect, followed by some time as a lefty specialist. The pitch percentage by season chart shows a major clue to how his 2018 breakout began, and that is the usage of his slider. Slider – “The Rog” "The Rog" (the new nickname I have just bestowed for the slider) is the only pitch that Rogers has thrown at an increased rate in 2019. It jumped from 13.1% of his pitches thrown last year to 50.3% in 2019.It's a large key to his success against right-handed hitters, as he's able to paint both sides of the plate with superior break. The results have not been quite as dominant as it was in 2018, but "The Rog" still holds opposing batters to a .244 BA and a .333 SLG (last year was .122 BA with a .195 SLG). For some context, he's thrown the slider 315 times since debuting in 2018, and given up a total of 4 extra base hits. I’m confident the slider will continue to be filthy, as the spin has increased and exit velocity has decreased to 85.3 MPH from 87 MPH last season. Curveball The other obvious change in Rogers' repertoire is the decrease of his curveball. The fact that his curve has become a rarity is far more surprising to me than the increased use of his slider. Rogers threw a curve for 33.4% of his pitches in 2018, but only 1.8% so far in 2019. 1.8% translates to 7 whole pitches in 2019. I'm not quite sure why Rogers isn't throwing his curve, because it was wildly effective last year. Rogers threw curveballs 316 times in 2018, allowing just 1 extra base hit with a .121 BA and .195 SLG. The spin on his curve was in the 89th percentile in 2018, and the average exit velocity was a paltry 82.7 MPH. The spin has remained above 2700 in 7 tries this season. If he threw it more, it would warrant a nickname (a la “The Rog”). Jeremy Heffner and Wes Johnson must have their reasons. Maybe Statcast is classifying some sliders as curves. Maybe po-tay-to is po-tah-to? Sinker Statcast classifies Rogers’ fastball as a sinker. Sinkers averaging 94.2 MPH are usually quite filthy. It’s trending near his career average in terms of percentage of pitches thrown, but has been dethroned as his favorite pitch due the success of his slider. Regardless, the sinker is a key to establish his breaking balls and it’s going to appear in almost every plate appearance. Rogers’ sinker has been more effective in 2019, nearly matching the performance of his slider this season. It’s always nice when average velocity increases on non-breaking pitches, and Rogers’ sinker has increased by 0.7 MPH from 2018. That seems to be a common trend across Wes Johnson’s pupils. Four-Seamer Rogers has thrown a four-seam fastball once this season. It deserves one sentence. It nearly hit Gordon Beckham in 0-2 count with the bases loaded. Overall Takeaway Rogers has continued his dominance with breaking balls, but the pitch selection has shifted to favor his slider over his curveball. The slider hasn’t been quite as dominant as 2018, but improvements to the spin and exit velocity suggest that it’s a pitch worth throwing more than he did last year. That doesn’t quite explain the severe drop-off in curveballs thrown, maybe there’s an explanation that can’t be defined by Statcast. Regardless of this shift, he's still the ace of the bullpen.

Sign him, but make him stay in extended Spring Training until May. Most pitchers who signed in March last year had terrible years. An injury or under performance is more likely than not to occur in April. Replacing Perez might not be a factor by time Keuchel is up to speed.

Not particularly concerned with 8 ABs. The likeliest scenario is Sano having an "extended spring training opportunity" to start off the 2018 season.

IF this game resumes, who does Molitor put out there? Tonkin? Eeeeek

I don't understand canceling the game for one hour with 12 minutes of rain and then commencing play with this torrential downpour...