rogrulz30

I personally would really like to see Luke Hughes as our 2B. I don't know if Casilla is that much of an upgrade defensively over Hughes. Last year was the first time I started seeing improvement defensively, but he still makes some bonehead plays on plays that should be a lot easier. I know Hughes hasn't done much defensively, but if you put Hughes in the lineup, that puts a chance of about 15-18 more HR, 20-25 more RBI, with the lineup ahead of him I think he would give a bigger lift of going through that lineup, once you get to Revere/Casilla, nobody is going to be scared of either of them. I think if Casilla could master the art of the walk, and SB, he becomes a much bigger threat. One more thing, if Plouffe, Hughes start, you lose speed, you gain much more power threat, I do think if I am playing the Tigers and Cabrera is at third I go with the speed all day, it will be interesting how Gardy uses the combos of Doumit, Morneau, Mauer, Plouffe, Hughes, Parmalee, I would rather have Parmalee down for a little while longer, but there is potential there now.

I admit this is kind of ridiculous looking at this before the beginning of the season, but being bored after watching a horrible Golden Gophers basketball game, I wanted to take a look at the Twins options if they are out of the race and looking to unload, what that looks like, and what are the options for 2013. Free Agents for the 2012 season for the Minnesota Twins Carl Pavano (37) Scott Baker (31) 9.25M option Fransicso Liriano (29) Ryan Doumit (32) Jason Marquis (34) Matt Capps (29) 6M option This could be a major problem, and this is what Terry Ryan has to figure out. The Twins current payroll will be right around 100M this year, if you read Phil Mackeys article on 1500ESPN http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Like_it_or_not_scaling_back_payroll_is_right_move_for_Twins010512, it makes perfect sense to keep the payroll where it is. The entire season revolves around Mauer, Morneau, Span. Not to mention, look at the contract years for our starters. We do have major problems at the starting pitcher position after this year, we don't have the minor leagues to help us right now. Here is a list of the FA starting pitchers, thanks MLBtraderumors.com Scott Baker (31) - $9.25MM club option Erik Bedard (34) Joe Blanton (32) Matt Cain (28) Fausto Carmona (29) - $9MM club option Bartolo Colon (40) Aaron Cook (34) Kevin Correia (32) Jorge De La Rosa (32) - $11MM player option with a $1MM buyout Ryan Dempster (36) R.A. Dickey (38) - $5MM club option with a $300K buyout Zach Duke (30) Scott Feldman (29) - $9.25MM club option with a $600K buyout Jeff Francis (31) Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option Freddy Garcia (37) Zack Greinke (28) Jeremy Guthrie (34) Cole Hamels (29) Rich Harden (31) Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout Livan Hernandez (38) Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout Edwin Jackson (29) Hiroki Kuroda (38) Colby Lewis (33) Francisco Liriano (29) Kyle Lohse (34) Rodrigo Lopez (37) Derek Lowe (40) Paul Maholm (31) - $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout Shaun Marcum (31) Jason Marquis (34) Daisuke Matsuzaka (32) Brandon McCarthy (29) Kevin Millwood (38) Brett Myers (32) - $10MM vesting option with a $3MM buyout Carl Pavano (37) Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout Anibal Sanchez (29) Jonathan Sanchez (30) Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout Joe Saunders (32) James Shields (31) - $9MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout Chien-Ming Wang (33) Jake Westbrook (35) - $8.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout if club declines Randy Wolf (36) - $10MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout Chris Young (34) Carlos Zambrano (32) What I can't do is determine what teams are going to be in races, or teams that need a starter after an injury that may be in the race, if we are out of the race in July, what are the best options? Do we resign Scott Baker for the 9 Million, are we shopping Liriano this season, I am sure Pavano would be the first to go. One thing that most concerns me is we have 1 pitcher signed as a starter in 2013, Nick Blackburn. So not only do we not have anything close to an Ace now, we don't even have a #1, #2, or #3 in 2013. Look how many free agents are going to be under the age of 30? The Twins were banking on Kyle Gibson, and then he needs Tommy John, as a Twins fan I hope he comes back to be the talent he has to offer. Kyle Gibson R (24) ETA 2013 Liam Hendricks R (23) ETA 2012 Adrian Salcedo R (20) ETA 2014 Hudson Boyd R (19) ETA 2015 Alex Wimmers R (23) ETA 2014 Manuel Soliman R (22) ETA 2015 Madison Boer R (22) ETA 2014 Corey Williams L (21) ETA 2013 Matt Hauser R (23) ETA 2012 These are the Twins top pitching prospects, not one of these are on MLB top 100. Looking at 2013, looking at projections we add Gibson, Hendricks, Hauser, Williams. We need pitching prospects that can help us the next coming years. My guess is we sign Scott Baker if he stays healthy, Kyle Gibson makes his way into the rotation, then we have Blackburn. If we are in the mix, who are we going to trade, we don't have that much to give up, although we do have a big draft coming up. If the Twins get Mark Appel from Stanford in the draft, that will definitely help, as he is predicted to be a "franchise" pitcher, we would maybe be able to look at giving up an outfielder. This will also be a big year for Ben Revere. If you look up the free agent list for outfield, you will also see a name all of us know, Torii Hunter. This will be an interesting scenario if Revere doesn't have a good season, we would still have Span, Willingham, and Plouffe, we would need something off the bench as well as an outfielder, who may be able to start as well. The way I look at how the outfield looks, I can easily see the Twins signing Hunter at a pretty low price. This is really going to be an interesting first 40 games of the season, then see how we use Marquis, Pavano, and Liriano as trade bait, and see what we can get for them.

I admit this is kind of ridiculous looking at this before the beginning of the season, but being bored after watching a horrible Golden Gophers basketball game, I wanted to take a look at the Twins options if they are out of the race and looking to unload, what that looks like, and what are the options for 2013. Free Agents for the 2012 season for the Minnesota Twins Carl Pavano (37) Scott Baker (31) 9.25M option Fransicso Liriano (29) Ryan Doumit (32) Jason Marquis (34) Matt Capps (29) 6M option This could be a major problem, and this is what Terry Ryan has to figure out. The Twins current payroll will be right around 100M this year, if you read Phil Mackeys article on 1500ESPN http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Like_it_or_not_scaling_back_payroll_is_right_move_for_Twins010512, it makes perfect sense to keep the payroll where it is. The entire season revolves around Mauer, Morneau, Span. Not to mention, look at the contract years for our starters. We do have major problems at the starting pitcher position after this year, we don't have the minor leagues to help us right now. Here is a list of the FA starting pitchers, thanks MLBtraderumors.com Scott Baker (31) - $9.25MM club option Erik Bedard (34) Joe Blanton (32) Matt Cain (28) Fausto Carmona (29) - $9MM club option Bartolo Colon (40) Aaron Cook (34) Kevin Correia (32) Jorge De La Rosa (32) - $11MM player option with a $1MM buyout Ryan Dempster (36) R.A. Dickey (38) - $5MM club option with a $300K buyout Zach Duke (30) Scott Feldman (29) - $9.25MM club option with a $600K buyout Jeff Francis (31) Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option Freddy Garcia (37) Zack Greinke (28) Jeremy Guthrie (34) Cole Hamels (29) Rich Harden (31) Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout Livan Hernandez (38) Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout Edwin Jackson (29) Hiroki Kuroda (38) Colby Lewis (33) Francisco Liriano (29) Kyle Lohse (34) Rodrigo Lopez (37) Derek Lowe (40) Paul Maholm (31) - $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout Shaun Marcum (31) Jason Marquis (34) Daisuke Matsuzaka (32) Brandon McCarthy (29) Kevin Millwood (38) Brett Myers (32) - $10MM vesting option with a $3MM buyout Carl Pavano (37) Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout Anibal Sanchez (29) Jonathan Sanchez (30) Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout Joe Saunders (32) James Shields (31) - $9MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout Chien-Ming Wang (33) Jake Westbrook (35) - $8.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout if club declines Randy Wolf (36) - $10MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout Chris Young (34) Carlos Zambrano (32) What I can't do is determine what teams are going to be in races, or teams that need a starter after an injury that may be in the race, if we are out of the race in July, what are the best options? Do we resign Scott Baker for the 9 Million, are we shopping Liriano this season, I am sure Pavano would be the first to go. One thing that most concerns me is we have 1 pitcher signed as a starter in 2013, Nick Blackburn. So not only do we not have anything close to an Ace now, we don't even have a #1, #2, or #3 in 2013. Look how many free agents are going to be under the age of 30? The Twins were banking on Kyle Gibson, and then he needs Tommy John, as a Twins fan I hope he comes back to be the talent he has to offer. Kyle Gibson R (24) ETA 2013 Liam Hendricks R (23) ETA 2012 Adrian Salcedo R (20) ETA 2014 Hudson Boyd R (19) ETA 2015 Alex Wimmers R (23) ETA 2014 Manuel Soliman R (22) ETA 2015 Madison Boer R (22) ETA 2014 Corey Williams L (21) ETA 2013 Matt Hauser R (23) ETA 2012 These are the Twins top pitching prospects, not one of these are on MLB top 100. Looking at 2013, looking at projections we add Gibson, Hendricks, Hauser, Williams. We need pitching prospects that can help us the next coming years. My guess is we sign Scott Baker if he stays healthy, Kyle Gibson makes his way into the rotation, then we have Blackburn. If we are in the mix, who are we going to trade, we don't have that much to give up, although we do have a big draft coming up. If the Twins get Mark Appel from Stanford in the draft, that will definitely help, as he is predicted to be a "franchise" pitcher, we would maybe be able to look at giving up an outfielder. This will also be a big year for Ben Revere. If you look up the free agent list for outfield, you will also see a name all of us know, Torii Hunter. This will be an interesting scenario if Revere doesn't have a good season, we would still have Span, Willingham, and Plouffe, we would need something off the bench as well as an outfielder, who may be able to start as well. The way I look at how the outfield looks, I can easily see the Twins signing Hunter at a pretty low price. This is really going to be an interesting first 40 games of the season, then see how we use Marquis, Pavano, and Liriano as trade bait, and see what we can get for them.

I would be amazed with the .280 avg, if he does that and is able to hit 15 HRs, that would be very good. I would not be surprised if Hughes doesn't make a decent run at 3rd base this year.

70 wins 92 losses was the consensus on the simulations from Zips. ESPN, and the bloggers from SweetSpots blogs have the prediction of the AL Central: Tigers Royals Indians Twins White Sox WHY AM I OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE TWINS THIS YEAR? SOMEBODY HELP ME? HELP ME TO THE FACT THAT I AM NOT THAT MUCH OF A HOMER TO THINK THE TWINS WILL WIN MORE THAN 75 GAMES, AND BE BETTER THAN THE ROYALS? Or am I crazy!?!?!?!? The Twins are going to score runs, I think that is obvious if the Twins can stay healthy with Morneau and Mauer, they have looked good and healthy so far this spring, last 5 games Morneaus is batting .471, Mauer is batting .340 this spring. Parmalee and Hughes have been impressive this spring, interesting to see how much they play to give Mauer and Morneau breaks this year. So once again I look at the lineup, you look and see Span Carroll Mauer Morneau Willingham Doumit Valencia Casilla Revere This is definitely a Gardy lineup, if he can get those guys running, (Span/Revere/Casilla), we have guys who can hit the ball out of the yard, and we have guys that can walk, and get hits. Please Twins stay Healthy, I like this lineup!!!! The pitching staff is weak, if the projections are based off of the rotation last year, there aren't many wins in this group. Liriano, Baker, Slowey, were injured last year, Duensing didn't know where he was going to be in any week, Perkins found a new spot, injuries killed the Twins like no other. As of today Pavano, Liriano, Blackburn, Marquis are healthy, Baker is up in the air, seems he could be good for opener though. If the rotation is healthy, Baker and Liriano step up to their talent level, the rotation is pretty decent, now you can go Liriano, Baker, Pavano! The back end is really up in the air, Duensing, Perk, and Capps at least have expereince and they know what is going to happen, now Duensing may be battling for Marquis', but I think either way I like him. I don't like Burnett, and or the rest of the relief. Having solid relief is really important if you have injury prone starting pitchers. This is the biggest problem with the Twins relief, if the relief doesn't get rest, they struggle. This is a very common problem in any rotation. THIS IS WHY WE PLAY THE GAMES RIGHT! I CANT WAIT TIL BASEBALL STARTS, blogs, spring training, hypotheticals, odds, I have to tell you it is fun to try to predict, fun to hope, I really want the season to start, I want to see where the Twins stand after 35 games this year. I also have a bet with the same person that I took the Brewer bet with that the Twins would be ahead of the Royals in the standings in the AL Central. Twins, please beat the Royals, if that one thing happens, I will take it. Go Twins!!

70 wins 92 losses was the consensus on the simulations from Zips. ESPN, and the bloggers from SweetSpots blogs have the prediction of the AL Central: Tigers Royals Indians Twins White Sox WHY AM I OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE TWINS THIS YEAR? SOMEBODY HELP ME? HELP ME TO THE FACT THAT I AM NOT THAT MUCH OF A HOMER TO THINK THE TWINS WILL WIN MORE THAN 75 GAMES, AND BE BETTER THAN THE ROYALS? Or am I crazy!?!?!?!? The Twins are going to score runs, I think that is obvious if the Twins can stay healthy with Morneau and Mauer, they have looked good and healthy so far this spring, last 5 games Morneaus is batting .471, Mauer is batting .340 this spring. Parmalee and Hughes have been impressive this spring, interesting to see how much they play to give Mauer and Morneau breaks this year. So once again I look at the lineup, you look and see Span Carroll Mauer Morneau Willingham Doumit Valencia Casilla Revere This is definitely a Gardy lineup, if he can get those guys running, (Span/Revere/Casilla), we have guys who can hit the ball out of the yard, and we have guys that can walk, and get hits. Please Twins stay Healthy, I like this lineup!!!! The pitching staff is weak, if the projections are based off of the rotation last year, there aren't many wins in this group. Liriano, Baker, Slowey, were injured last year, Duensing didn't know where he was going to be in any week, Perkins found a new spot, injuries killed the Twins like no other. As of today Pavano, Liriano, Blackburn, Marquis are healthy, Baker is up in the air, seems he could be good for opener though. If the rotation is healthy, Baker and Liriano step up to their talent level, the rotation is pretty decent, now you can go Liriano, Baker, Pavano! The back end is really up in the air, Duensing, Perk, and Capps at least have expereince and they know what is going to happen, now Duensing may be battling for Marquis', but I think either way I like him. I don't like Burnett, and or the rest of the relief. Having solid relief is really important if you have injury prone starting pitchers. This is the biggest problem with the Twins relief, if the relief doesn't get rest, they struggle. This is a very common problem in any rotation. THIS IS WHY WE PLAY THE GAMES RIGHT! I CANT WAIT TIL BASEBALL STARTS, blogs, spring training, hypotheticals, odds, I have to tell you it is fun to try to predict, fun to hope, I really want the season to start, I want to see where the Twins stand after 35 games this year. I also have a bet with the same person that I took the Brewer bet with that the Twins would be ahead of the Royals in the standings in the AL Central. Twins, please beat the Royals, if that one thing happens, I will take it. Go Twins!!

It's my blog and I can talk about what I want to, which is great and I hope people enjoy the fun I am going to have this year writing everyday things. I just returned from Las Vegas, spending a great time betting on NCAA basketball, (which went horribly bad), and doing a lot of drinking w/ my really good friends. First stop was Fremont, of course this is my favorite place to go because of the type of people and shenanigans you run into, and quite frankly it is less expensive to do things. We had quite a group out, and one shot leads to another shot, and we end up going to a club above the Golden Nuggett, yep, that is what we chose, I don't remember what it was called, I knew it cost $10 to get it, and it turned into dancing and getting drunk and not caring about anything for about 4 hours, don't remember how I got home, just know i GOT THERE. 3 days of watching basketball and drinking, and ripping on my friends, and friends animals was as fun as you can have, didn't even go the strip, ( I lived there for 3 years, and visit every other year) I love March Madness, this year was the first year w/o Gus Johnson and WE NEED HIM BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have to tell you I absolutely love Gus Johnson, for him to not be in the tournament is an absolute joke. Seriously the games were not really that exciting besides a couple, and of course my Dukies had to go out of the tourney, along with that I had Missouri in the final game, so my bracket got severely busted. This isn't even to mention that I lost almost every game I bet on for the first two days, Thank God for friends and booze. As I was in Vegas, where the weather was about 65 degrees, it was between 70 and 81 in Duluth, MN!!! Winters are long in the northland, and this time of year kicks ass, weather is nice, baseball is in the air, basketball and hockey are getting close to the playoffs, and of course the NCAA tournament. I love fishing, golfing, and anything in the outdoor sun especially in the summer. I can't wait now for opener of Twins baseball, and opener of fishing. The weather and the amount of sports brings everyone in a good mood! Since it is a Twins blog, I should talk a little about the Twins. Spring training doesn't do much for me except bring the excitement for the year. Obviously right now it comes down to whether Morneau can be healthy and the starting pitching is consistent. SI picked the Twins to end up 4th in the division, so every major sports writer has the Twins 4th or last this year, I really want this year to be better, I want at least a run. C'Mon Twins!!!!! At this point all we can do is watch and speculate, Pavano's start today didn't go very well, again, not sure what to think about the veterans in spring training. All I can say right now is Go Kansas, and go Gophers!!!

It's my blog and I can talk about what I want to, which is great and I hope people enjoy the fun I am going to have this year writing everyday things. I just returned from Las Vegas, spending a great time betting on NCAA basketball, (which went horribly bad), and doing a lot of drinking w/ my really good friends. First stop was Fremont, of course this is my favorite place to go because of the type of people and shenanigans you run into, and quite frankly it is less expensive to do things. We had quite a group out, and one shot leads to another shot, and we end up going to a club above the Golden Nuggett, yep, that is what we chose, I don't remember what it was called, I knew it cost $10 to get it, and it turned into dancing and getting drunk and not caring about anything for about 4 hours, don't remember how I got home, just know i GOT THERE. 3 days of watching basketball and drinking, and ripping on my friends, and friends animals was as fun as you can have, didn't even go the strip, ( I lived there for 3 years, and visit every other year) I love March Madness, this year was the first year w/o Gus Johnson and WE NEED HIM BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have to tell you I absolutely love Gus Johnson, for him to not be in the tournament is an absolute joke. Seriously the games were not really that exciting besides a couple, and of course my Dukies had to go out of the tourney, along with that I had Missouri in the final game, so my bracket got severely busted. This isn't even to mention that I lost almost every game I bet on for the first two days, Thank God for friends and booze. As I was in Vegas, where the weather was about 65 degrees, it was between 70 and 81 in Duluth, MN!!! Winters are long in the northland, and this time of year kicks ass, weather is nice, baseball is in the air, basketball and hockey are getting close to the playoffs, and of course the NCAA tournament. I love fishing, golfing, and anything in the outdoor sun especially in the summer. I can't wait now for opener of Twins baseball, and opener of fishing. The weather and the amount of sports brings everyone in a good mood! Since it is a Twins blog, I should talk a little about the Twins. Spring training doesn't do much for me except bring the excitement for the year. Obviously right now it comes down to whether Morneau can be healthy and the starting pitching is consistent. SI picked the Twins to end up 4th in the division, so every major sports writer has the Twins 4th or last this year, I really want this year to be better, I want at least a run. C'Mon Twins!!!!! At this point all we can do is watch and speculate, Pavano's start today didn't go very well, again, not sure what to think about the veterans in spring training. All I can say right now is Go Kansas, and go Gophers!!!

Last year I was the biggest Valencia hater!! I wasn't sure why they wouldn't put 3 players to the left of 2nd base when Valencia batted. All he did was try to hit the ball to the upper deck in left field, I was very, very annoyed by his at bats all season. If Danny Valencia can use the whole field in his at bats I will definitely come around to him as a batter. This is very good news that he is working hard on doing that, last year I was rooting for Hughes to take his spot, or at least give him a shot until he started doing this. This was the best thing I read all day, as I worked all day and I know that UNC basketball won, Duke lost, and Rubio is out for the season. FYI for future blogs I hate UNC, I am a big Duke basketball fan. Gardenhire impressed by Valencia By Rhett Bollinger / MLB.com | 03/10/12 5:00 PM EST Comments (5) print e-mail Baker has difficulty in 'B' game vs. Bucs Doyle struggles in outing against Pirates BRADENTON, Fla. -- Third baseman Danny Valencia had an impressive day at the plate against the Pirates on Saturday, going 2-for-3 with a double and a three-run homer in the Twins' 4-2 win. Valencia showed opposite-field power with a double in the fifth, before turning on a pitch for a three-run shot over the left-field fence in the sixth. Both hits came against left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes. "That was nice," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "Danny has been working at it. He's been on the extra field taking extra swings, doing things in the cages. He's told himself he's going to use the whole field and drive the ball. When he starts looking around and tries to hit the ball where they ain't, is when he starts to get in trouble. But when he gets the barrel out on the ball, he can drive it with anybody, so that was nice." Gardenhire has been impressed with Valencia's propensity to hit the ball to the opposite field with power so far this spring, as he said that Valencia got away from that last season. Valencia went through a sophomore slump of sorts last year, when he hit .246/.294/.383 with 15 homers in 154 games, after hitting .311/.351/.448 with seven homers in 85 games as a rookie in '10. "He's so stinking strong," Gardenhire said. "When he doesn't try to get so goosey and hit the ball in the upper deck, he can do a lot of things. It's just better fundamentals. He has better balance at the plate and he drove the ball today. You saw that. That ball was crushed into the wind at the time."

Last year I was the biggest Valencia hater!! I wasn't sure why they wouldn't put 3 players to the left of 2nd base when Valencia batted. All he did was try to hit the ball to the upper deck in left field, I was very, very annoyed by his at bats all season. If Danny Valencia can use the whole field in his at bats I will definitely come around to him as a batter. This is very good news that he is working hard on doing that, last year I was rooting for Hughes to take his spot, or at least give him a shot until he started doing this. This was the best thing I read all day, as I worked all day and I know that UNC basketball won, Duke lost, and Rubio is out for the season. FYI for future blogs I hate UNC, I am a big Duke basketball fan. Gardenhire impressed by Valencia By Rhett Bollinger / MLB.com | 03/10/12 5:00 PM EST Comments (5) print e-mail Baker has difficulty in 'B' game vs. Bucs Doyle struggles in outing against Pirates BRADENTON, Fla. -- Third baseman Danny Valencia had an impressive day at the plate against the Pirates on Saturday, going 2-for-3 with a double and a three-run homer in the Twins' 4-2 win. Valencia showed opposite-field power with a double in the fifth, before turning on a pitch for a three-run shot over the left-field fence in the sixth. Both hits came against left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes. "That was nice," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "Danny has been working at it. He's been on the extra field taking extra swings, doing things in the cages. He's told himself he's going to use the whole field and drive the ball. When he starts looking around and tries to hit the ball where they ain't, is when he starts to get in trouble. But when he gets the barrel out on the ball, he can drive it with anybody, so that was nice." Gardenhire has been impressed with Valencia's propensity to hit the ball to the opposite field with power so far this spring, as he said that Valencia got away from that last season. Valencia went through a sophomore slump of sorts last year, when he hit .246/.294/.383 with 15 homers in 154 games, after hitting .311/.351/.448 with seven homers in 85 games as a rookie in '10. "He's so stinking strong," Gardenhire said. "When he doesn't try to get so goosey and hit the ball in the upper deck, he can do a lot of things. It's just better fundamentals. He has better balance at the plate and he drove the ball today. You saw that. That ball was crushed into the wind at the time."

I haven't really had a chance to look at this, which I will, but if you know, I was wondering if there are stats for unproductive outs. Delmon Young and Danny Valencia I swear have the most unproductive outs on the team, (when Delmon was here) I think those are really important to look at. e.g. Men on 1st and 2nd, 1 out or less and he gets out w/o moving the runners over, there are a lot of examples like that, but I think it is really an important number to look at. I sometimes think "outs" are over rated, but they are obviously under rated when it comes to bunts, SB vs getting thrown out, and things like that. Watching and reading moneyball has my thoughts indifferent about some of those things, but what was really annoying with Valencia and Young is I don't think they ever tried to take pitches that would allow at least runners getting over and driving the ball the other way. I think Spring Training is such a small sample size, it is tough putting numbers on just "outs", I think how hard they are hitting the ball, and productive outs need to be a part of the conversation, an avg could be a .075 swing easily if not more on a couple bloop hits for one guy and some hard line drives right at someone for someone else, then taking one for the team for productive outs should have some weight. Any comments

I am looking ahead a little bit, but if you look at the Twins schedule early in the year, look out! The begin the season in Baltimore, that is fine, but then look what the schedule holds for us in order: Home, Angels (3) Home, Rangers (3) Away, Yankees (4) Away, Rays (3) Home, Red Sox (3) Home, Royals (3) Away, Angels (3) Away, Mariners (3) Home, Angels (3) Home, Blue Jays (4) That is very ugly, if you look realistically at that beginning I am seeing a start for the Twins record after the first 35 games is maybe 14-21. I don't have all the data right now, I am guessing that has to be one of the toughest schedules in the league for the first 35 games. I am really going to be curious to see this year is the overall records of the AL East, with Toronto, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees beating up on each other it is going to be tough for anybody to really get to 95 wins, which makes an interesting fight for that second wild card spot, which is most likely going to come out of the AL West, whether it be the Angels or Rangers. I actually really like the expansion of the playoff system. Teams like the 2010 Yankees were able to tank the last part of the year to hand pick their playoff opponent, it didn't matter if they were wild card or division winners. I like to make wagers and I wanted to post a couple of my wagers this year in baseball. I said earlier I took the Twins over 73.5 for reasons I put out in my last post, I also took the Astros at under 63.5 based on this lineup: Jordan Schafer (played 132 games in the MLB) projected -.4 WARP Jose Altuve (played 57 games in the MLB) projected .7 WARP J.D. Martinez (played 53 games in the MLB) projected 1.2 WARP Carlos Lee projected 2.1 WARP Brian Bogusevic (played 106 games in the MLB) projected .4 WARP Jed Lowrie (played 256 games in MLB) projected 1.3 WARP Jimmy Paredes (played 46 games in MLB) projected -1.0 WARP Chris Snyder projected .8 WARP Rotation Wandy Rodriguez Bud Norris J.A. Happ Livan Hernandez Jordan Lyles I have heard of 3 of those players in the lineup and Wandy Rodriguez is the only good starter on the rotation. This team is going to be playing the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals, which are all very good teams this year. This team was 26th or worse in the league in almost every category that has a big time stat on, Runs per Game, Runs Againster per Game, Score differential per game, They are down two of the 3 best VORP players. How is this team going to win more games than they won last year. They won 56 games last year, I can't see them being better? Arizona u 86.5 Miami Marlins over 85.5 (yes I am jumping on this wagon) even though they are going to have the Phillies and Braves in this division, the NL is weak this year, I am not sold on the Giants, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Cardinals. So it will be a tough division, other than that I think they will win maybe 90 games even. Detroit u 92 They need help on the left side defensively, this one is very close, Verlander is great, the lineup is very good, defensively could be a huge weakness New York Mets o 73.5 this is close as well, hopefully Johan is healthy Phillies u 93.5 I think this is there last year to win a world series, health and age is a concern now Cleveland o 78.5 I wasn't sold on Cleveland at all last year, I won a nice prop bet last year saying they wouldn't make the playoffs after their hot start, this year if they are healthy will be around .500 Toronto u 80.5 Bautista really fell, I think pitchers figured out how to pitch to him, if he had as signal caller it is gone now, they play in the East. Dodgers u 81.5 mediocre team at best after Kershaw and Kemp, don't think they will be .500 Padres o 73.5 poor division the pitching staff although young could be decent in that division, I like where this team is going Royals u 79.5 What??? I have been wrong with the Royals the last 2 years, I thought they would be better, I couldn't believe I saw 79.5 for the Royals this year, and the Twins at 73.5, Royals 6 games better than a healthy Twins team. Yes last year they were 8 games better from a depleted Twins program Angels u 92.5 I think that early line is a Pujols line and that will go down, I think the under on that is a good bet. I love posting these, then looking at this in October. Should be fun following these lines. Last year I ended up betting 7 teams and was 4-3, which isn't good, but fun

I am looking ahead a little bit, but if you look at the Twins schedule early in the year, look out! The begin the season in Baltimore, that is fine, but then look what the schedule holds for us in order: Home, Angels (3) Home, Rangers (3) Away, Yankees (4) Away, Rays (3) Home, Red Sox (3) Home, Royals (3) Away, Angels (3) Away, Mariners (3) Home, Angels (3) Home, Blue Jays (4) That is very ugly, if you look realistically at that beginning I am seeing a start for the Twins record after the first 35 games is maybe 14-21. I don't have all the data right now, I am guessing that has to be one of the toughest schedules in the league for the first 35 games. I am really going to be curious to see this year is the overall records of the AL East, with Toronto, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees beating up on each other it is going to be tough for anybody to really get to 95 wins, which makes an interesting fight for that second wild card spot, which is most likely going to come out of the AL West, whether it be the Angels or Rangers. I actually really like the expansion of the playoff system. Teams like the 2010 Yankees were able to tank the last part of the year to hand pick their playoff opponent, it didn't matter if they were wild card or division winners. I like to make wagers and I wanted to post a couple of my wagers this year in baseball. I said earlier I took the Twins over 73.5 for reasons I put out in my last post, I also took the Astros at under 63.5 based on this lineup: Jordan Schafer (played 132 games in the MLB) projected -.4 WARP Jose Altuve (played 57 games in the MLB) projected .7 WARP J.D. Martinez (played 53 games in the MLB) projected 1.2 WARP Carlos Lee projected 2.1 WARP Brian Bogusevic (played 106 games in the MLB) projected .4 WARP Jed Lowrie (played 256 games in MLB) projected 1.3 WARP Jimmy Paredes (played 46 games in MLB) projected -1.0 WARP Chris Snyder projected .8 WARP Rotation Wandy Rodriguez Bud Norris J.A. Happ Livan Hernandez Jordan Lyles I have heard of 3 of those players in the lineup and Wandy Rodriguez is the only good starter on the rotation. This team is going to be playing the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals, which are all very good teams this year. This team was 26th or worse in the league in almost every category that has a big time stat on, Runs per Game, Runs Againster per Game, Score differential per game, They are down two of the 3 best VORP players. How is this team going to win more games than they won last year. They won 56 games last year, I can't see them being better? Arizona u 86.5 Miami Marlins over 85.5 (yes I am jumping on this wagon) even though they are going to have the Phillies and Braves in this division, the NL is weak this year, I am not sold on the Giants, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Cardinals. So it will be a tough division, other than that I think they will win maybe 90 games even. Detroit u 92 They need help on the left side defensively, this one is very close, Verlander is great, the lineup is very good, defensively could be a huge weakness New York Mets o 73.5 this is close as well, hopefully Johan is healthy Phillies u 93.5 I think this is there last year to win a world series, health and age is a concern now Cleveland o 78.5 I wasn't sold on Cleveland at all last year, I won a nice prop bet last year saying they wouldn't make the playoffs after their hot start, this year if they are healthy will be around .500 Toronto u 80.5 Bautista really fell, I think pitchers figured out how to pitch to him, if he had as signal caller it is gone now, they play in the East. Dodgers u 81.5 mediocre team at best after Kershaw and Kemp, don't think they will be .500 Padres o 73.5 poor division the pitching staff although young could be decent in that division, I like where this team is going Royals u 79.5 What??? I have been wrong with the Royals the last 2 years, I thought they would be better, I couldn't believe I saw 79.5 for the Royals this year, and the Twins at 73.5, Royals 6 games better than a healthy Twins team. Yes last year they were 8 games better from a depleted Twins program Angels u 92.5 I think that early line is a Pujols line and that will go down, I think the under on that is a good bet. I love posting these, then looking at this in October. Should be fun following these lines. Last year I ended up betting 7 teams and was 4-3, which isn't good, but fun

I am struggling finding this team being as bad as they say, I really liked the article Bill Parker, I really think they will be around .500, Liriano is in a contract year, it is now or never for him, Baker showed really good promise before his injury last year, I like the lineup, I like the defense a lot better, I think it comes down to health, and our top 3 pitchers, I think we can compete. If I were Gardy I would be working on my bunts down the 3rd base line when playing the Tigers I don't think Cabreras 260 pound butt can field that position.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]281[/ATTACH] This is going to be my first ever blog on this site and I want to continue blogging about the Twins this season, I will have to say I have had one other blog and it was really fun to do, I want this one to last and I am going to have fun with it. What really got me wanting to do this was a bet that I made with a friend, and I really started looking at baseball prospectus for about 3 hours and I could have gone on and on, as baseball prospectus is really addicting. First off I have to preface this blog as saying I do like making prop bets, I shouldn't say like, I love making prop bets, and I love betting on about anything. I bet my friend on a plus minus Twins vs Brewers over under on wins, and I get the Twins at + 10. According to baseballprospectus I am a dog by 4 wins, I am a homer so I took that bad side of this bet, but I wanted to look at the twins this season over last years 99 loss season. I read this article,(http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16164) thanks to a friend and I really had to think about what people are saying about the Twins, and how laughable they will be? Really, they have had 1 bad year in the 10 years, they won the central division in '02, '03, '04, '06, '09 and '10, and I don't think many of the "experts" picked the Twins to win the division in many of those years. I am not saying that the Twins will make the playoffs, or even be .500, but I wanted to make some arguments for the Twins. I put some stats together thanks to baseball prospectus. I really wanted to look at the Twins 94 win season vs. what happened last year, and what we have going forward to 2012. As of March 8th, I am putting the Twins at 81 wins, which is 10 games over what baseball prospectus puts them. As I am updated this blog I do see the new lines from Intertops Sportsbook having the Twins o/u at 73.5 games, I am betting the over, also another bet I am definitely taking is the Astros under 63.5. I am putting the Rangers and Phillies in the World Series. But anyway back to why I have the Twins at 81 wins, and why I think the Twins are not going to be as bad as what everyone is saying. Here is the lineup they put on the field in 2010 Span Hudson Mauer Morneau Cuddyer Kubel Young Valencia Punto Here is the lineup they will put on the field in 2012 Span Carroll Mauer Morneau Willingham Valencia Doumit Revere Casilla Here is the pitching rotation they had in 2010 Liriano Pavano Baker Blackburn Slowey Here is what the rotation will be in 2012 Pavano Liriano Baker Blackburn ??? OK, so OBVIOUSLY health is the biggest issue the Twins have. If Liriano can't pitch well, we downgrade our entire rotation by a mile, Pavano is not a #1, and Baker is not a #2, (unless he shows what he did last year before he got injured) and the list goes on. On the other side, the lineup if Morneau isn't healthy they are a well below average lineup and really makes the Mauer signing pretty bad because his value is at catcher, there is no other catcher that does what Mauer does, which makes the signing correct, if he plays another position there is no way he gets signed for what he signed for. I am going to look at this lineup compared to 2010 stats for the most part. Span 1.8 WARP (2010) Carroll 3.3 WARP (2011) Mauer 5.0 WARP (2010) Morneau 3.6 WARP (2010) Willingham 3.5 WARP (2011) Doumit 1.3 WARP (2011) Valencia 1.4 WARP Revere .1 WARP (2011) Casilla 2.1 WARP (2011) Rotation Carl Pavano 1.4 WARP (2011) Fransisco Liriano .5 WARP (2011) 3.3 (2010) Scott Baker 2.1 WARP (2011) Nick Blackburn .4 WARP (2011) Jason Marquis .3 WARP (2011) Relief Matt Capps -.3 WARP (2011) Glen Perkins .8 WARP (2011) Alex Burnett -.4 WARP (2011) Brian Duensing 1.0 WARP (2011) Anthony Swarzak .7 WARP (2011) Matt Maloney (NA) I want to put that in perspective vs a random team, and I am going to choose the Brewers because I have a bet against that team. Rickie Weeks 3.1 WARP (2011) Nyjer Morgan 2.8 WARP (2011) Ryan Braun 6.6 WARP (2011) Aramis Ramirez 2.6 WARP (2011) Mat Gamel -.4 WARP (2011) Alex Gonzalez 1.6 WARP (2011) Jonothan Lucroy 1.4 WARP (2011) Carlos Gomez 1.4 WARP (2011) Rotation Yovani Gallardo 3.4 WARP (2011) Zack Greinke 3.3 WARP (2011) Shaun Marcum 2.9 WARP (2011) Randy Wolf 1.4 WARP (2011) Chris Narveson 1.6 WARP (2011) Relief John Axford 1.6 WARP(2011) Francisco Rodriguez .6 WARP (2011) Kameron Loe .4 WARP (2011) Tim Dillard .2 WARP (2011) Brandon Kintzler .3 WARP (2012 projected) Marco Estrada -.1 WARP (2012 projected) Jose Veras .1 WARP (2011) Zach Braddock .1 WARP (2011) Looking at those makes a good case that the Brewers would win more games based on the pitching rotation. The Brewers really have a good rotation. They aren't that deep as far as relief goes, I think they are a bit behind the Twins, but I can't find any glaring differences, and Relief is hard to find specific stats on. The Minnesota Twins were the worst defensive team in the Major Leagues, they also had Delmon Young in left field, they had Michael Cuddyer play almost every position, they had their starting shortstop go down due to injury in the first week of the year, they had Morneau out and had a platoon at first, Valencia isn't a great defensive 3rd baseme, since Span was injured they had to platoon in the outfield, and when you have Delmon in left Revere had to cover even more space and help shade that way more. You start this year at upgraded defensively at almost every position. Let's say that Morneau is healthy for argument sake. These are the upgrades you are making by position, C-upgrade, 1B, upgrade, 2B we will say even, SS, upgrade, 3B same, LF huge upgrade, Center, upgrade due to having Delmon out, RF downgrade. IF, and of course it is a big if, but there isn't anything you can do to predict injuries, but looking at the 2010 94 win team and comparing to the 2011 99 loss team, there is a better than a 8 win difference as baseball prospectus projects.