Mike Frasier Law

I have been a big proponent of retiring anything to do with the Bomba Squad moniker from 2019. Let seasons evolve on their own. The 2021 team was supposed to be good, they are on paper, but will it take shape?
 
We are not yet through the month of April and I keep harping on the runway left for the 2021 season. Minnesota has played just over 12% of their games, and they are chasing a White Sox team that is just 4.5 games clear of them right now. That’s all to outline the current positioning isn’t dire. The problem is that the production just hasn’t been there.
 
Rocco Baldelli has gotten less than nothing from his catching tandem, and the left field situation has been a mess. Expecting Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, and Nelson Cruz all to be good was a pretty solid bet, and that’s played out as expected. Miguel Sano is currently on the IL, and while the numbers haven’t yet worked in his favor, the process is more than working.
 
The point we’re quickly getting to is wondering when things click?
 
If there’s three chief areas of concern, it’s the two previously outlined and the bullpen. Alex Colome was always going to regress from his otherworldly 2020 numbers, but his career production suggested that a baseline was hardly something to scoff at. Instead, he’s been historically bad while being more hittable than at any point during his career. The middle relief looks inept and holding onto small deficits just hasn’t been doable.
 
Looking at the lineup, Baldelli can’t continue to get an empty lineup spot from multiple positions. Mitch Garver no longer punishes lefties or fastballs, and while Alex Kirilloff is just a few games in to his first promotion, he’s currently dealing with an 0-fer. Whether it’s a longer leash for Ryan Jeffers, who has also been bad, or a big game for Kirilloff, the Twins need things to break their way.
 
This hasn’t been the Bomba Squad for quite some time, and the lineup doesn’t need to launch balls into the seats for opportunity to win. Luis Arraez and Andrelton Simmons provide plenty of good contact-based opportunities, and it’s on Minnesota to start capitalizing with what’s in front of them. Despite having the second worst record in baseball, the run differential is only -9 and the pythag presents a better 9-11 story.
 
Maybe it’s been bad luck, but it’s time to start creating their own. If the expectation was for this team to be good coming into the year, 20 games shouldn’t change that. At some point though, results have to follow.
 
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One of the best part of the offseason is the hope every fanbase has for their team in the upcoming year. Twins fans have not had this much hope in quite some time. With high hopes come high expectations from many fans. I am no different so here are 5 of my predictions for the 2020 Minnesota Twins.
 
1. Byron Buxton will play in 130 games and receive MVP votes.
The boldest part of this prediction is Buxton staying healthy for 130 games. He has played in 130 games in only one season so far with the Twins wwhich was 2017. That year he was a below average hitter with an OPS+ of 93 and he still received some MVP votes. I expect hit to be an above average hitter and with his defensive value the MVP votes are sure to come.
 
2. Luis Arraez will again bat over .300 and make the All-Star team.
While some may expect some sort of regression with Arraez he is such a pure hitter .300 seems like a definite possibility. With that I think he can be one of the top 2-3 overall second basemen in the American League. Sure Jose Altuve is probably ahead of him but guys like Gleyber Torres and Whit Merrifield are expected to play other positions this year. This leave him having to battle for votes with a lot of unproven guys, decent veterans, and some better guys like DJ Lehmahieu. Based on this I do not see it as unreasonable for Luis Arraez to make the All-Star game if he is batting .300 again.
 
3. Jose Berrios will become the true ace our starting staff really needs.
Some of you may be thinking Berrios is already at this level as he has made the All-Star game the past two seasons and has been the best starter the Twins have had in a few years. I would agree that he is a top 30 or so starting pitcher but I think this is the year he pushes toward the top 10. It has been well documented that Berrios puts up much better number in the first 4 months of the season than he does in the August and September. This will be the year he figures out how to stay fresh and effective throughout and entire season and make a push for the Cy Young award.
 
4. The Twins will acquire another starting pitcher that excites the fan base.
I am unsure of who they will target but I do think the front office will make a trade for a decent starting pitcher before the offseason is over. Some realistic targets would be Matthew Boyd, Robbie Ray, Jon Gray, and a handful of others. I like the idea of getting someone with at least two years of team control as Michael Pineda and Jose Berrios are our only starters around past this season. I believe the front office sees the opportunity in front of them and will seize it by trading for a pitcher sooner rather than later.
 
5. The Twins finally win not only a playoff game but a playoff series!
I know this might be tough to believe but I think it is actually possible for the Twins to win not just a single game in the playoffs but three out of five. I see too few flaws in this team for them not to win at least one game against a team the caliber of the Astros or the dreaded Yankees. On top of this I think once there is smoke there is fire and the Twins will get a series win. After that it is only two more and your the 2020 World Series Champs!

Brusdar Graterol made his much-anticipated debut this afternoon as part of the Twins' 8-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers. The 21-year old has been raising eyebrows and expectations primarily because of his velocity and the impact he could make down he stretch run and hopefully a long run into the playoffs. Comparisons have been made and dreams have been dreamt of the Twins striking gold for this year in much the same way the Angels did in 2004 with Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez.
 
Graterol pitched a scoreless ninth to close out the victory for the Twins, as they were able to stretch the lead in the AL Central over Cleveland to 5.5 games. This was a great way for a guy like Graterol to make his debut: a low leverage situation against a weak offense. And he performed. His first pitch as a big leaguer was advertised on TV broadcasts at 100 MPH because of rounding. Baseball Savant had it at 99.6. This would be a good time to note that I am not projecting anything about how hard Graterol may throw in the future or analyzing how hard he threw in the minors - just a few thoughts on how hard he threw today.
 
Graterol began his outing with a four-pitch strikeout of Dawel Lugo. Lugo didn't swing at any of the four, which came in at 99.6, 99.3, 99, and 98.5 MPH. Graterol then faced Brandon Dixon, who hit a single on the fifth pitch of the AB and second slider. To Dixon, Graterol threw three fastballs at 98.5, 99.1, and 98.6 MPH. Then Jordy Mercer saw two fastballs at 99.3 and 98.5, a slider at 88.1 and hit a 98.7 MPH fastball for an infield single. The first pitch to Jake Rogers was another 99.6 MPH fastball (tying his first pitch for the fastest of the outing) for a game-ending double play.
 
So what did he throw today? Overall, there were 14 pitches with 10 for strikes. His fastball accounted for 11 pitches and 8 strikes. He topped out twice at 99.6 MPH with his first and final pitches. His fastball averaged 99 MPH and none were thrown slower than 98.5 MPH.
 
And here is why that matters to Twins fans. After 14 pitches, Brusdar Graterol now sits in positions 2-7 for individual pitch velocity by Minnesota Twins this year. Position #1 is still held (for now) by Trevor May who hit 99.8 MPH on August 5 against Atlanta's Johan Camargo. Extend that out throughout the Statcast era (since 2015) and Graterol is tied for third in individual pitch velocity behind that May 99.8 MPH pea, a 99.7 MPH fastball thrown by Ryan Pressly in 2016 and tied with a 99.6 MPH pitch thrown by JT Chargois in 2016 also.
 
For a long time, the Twins have been left out (somewhat intentionally and also unintentionally) from baseball's growing velocities. In Brusdar Graterol, Twins fans have someone exciting to watch who has the potential for missing lots of bats. Ironic note to end: Graterol missed exactly zero bats today against the Tigers. But that will change.

I remember in 1987 the Twins came within 2 HRs of having 4 players hit 30 HRs on the same team in the same season. Hrbeck 34, Brunanski 32, Gaetti 31 and Puckett 28. The Dodgers 1977 team with Baker, Cey, Garvey and Reggie Smith achieved this once.
 
fast forward to 2019 and boy do i just feel a lot older....but this Twins team currently has Cruz with 32 and Kepler with 33 HRs already. Rosario is at 27 and both Sano and Garver are at 23. The Twins could end up with 5 players with 30 Hrs.
 
They could also be a team with 2 or 3 players with 40 HRs if Sano gets more playing time and continues at his current rate.
 
The Twins also have 11 players with 10 HRs already.
 
and they already have 6 players with over 20 Hrs already.
 
Kepler 33
Cruz 32
Rosario 27
Sano 23
Garver 23
and Cron 20
 
We also have Schoop 17, Polanco 17 and Gonzales 14 for a potential 9 players with 20 HRs in a season. Is that a record? Castro also has an outside shot at 20 making it 10 potential Twins with 20 HRs in a season.
 
This is definitely fun to watch as the 2019 Twins are set to become the most powerful team of all time smashing the Major League Team HR record for a season. How do you see this playing out. How many 20 HR hitters will we have? How many 40 HR hitters?

Coming into the season the one real glaring area of weakness for the Minnesota Twins was their relief corps. Relying on unproven commodities like Matt Magill and Ryne Harper seemed lofty, and the high leverage arms came in the form of Blake Parker and Taylor Rogers. Fast forward to today and the pitching staff has performed admirably with the bullpen significantly surpassing fan expectations. If there’s a call to be made though, it may come from further down the ladder.
 
Today the Twins promoted Devin Smeltzer to make his major league debut against the Milwaukee Brewers. Smeltzer was acquired from the Dodgers last season in the deal that sent Brian Dozier to Los Angeles. After working solely as a reliever in Double-A last season for Minnesota, Smeltzer made five starts in Pensacola this year before four turns at Triple-A. He’s just 23 years old, and the promotion schedule has been an aggressive one.
 
In calling up Smeltzer to replace Michael Pineda in the starting rotation the wheels should begin spinning on who could be next. So far, we’ve seen both Kohl Stewart and Zack Littell from Rochester this season, but that’s about where the options end right now. Lewis Thorpe doesn’t have strong numbers and Stephen Gonsalves twirled just two innings before landing back on the Injured List. Given the aggressiveness shown by the Twins front office, and circumstance regarding available options, the next man up could currently be at Double-A.
 
Jorge Alcala was acquired as the key piece in exchange for Ryan Pressly. Pumping a triple-digit fastball, he’s put together a season that’s been significantly better than some of his surface numbers. Through 48 innings he owns a 4.69 ERA with a 10.3 K/9 and a 3.3 BB/9. Where things look even more promising is that he’s been bit by a .357 BABIP and his FIP stands at 2.95 with a 3.27 xFIP. In short, there’s a good deal of bad luck going on, and much better peripherals than the gaudy ERA suggests.
 
Recently on the Twins radio broadcast, Derek Falvey offered up Alcala’s name as one the Twins may end up seeing as soon as this year. He’s 23 years old and has certainly advanced his prospect stock this season. Whether in a spot start or for some firepower out of the pen, it may be the Dominican native that emerges as the next most likely option.
 
Certainly, it’d be great for Minnesota if some of the relief arms at Triple-A Rochester got back on track, or guys like Gonsalves and Brusdar Graterol returned to a clean bill of health. As contingency plans though, we’ve seen the aggressive movement of players like Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, and others. The Twins will need to rely on some depth as the season goes along, and Alcala is providing that despite not being on the immediate doorstep.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Gaging value in relief pitichers is always a difficult task given that they are prone to issues with small sample size. Many relievers who were good one season will regress the next, and as we've seen with Blake Parker, guys who were nothing special can turn into a very good option.
 
Regardless, it was, without question, a point of contention this offseason among TD readers about the front office getting more help for the pen. I personally beat this horse dead on numerous occasions. I was happy with the Parker signing, but made it clear that I didn't want this to be the main acquisition. The pen so far has not been as bad as some of us (myself included) thought. It has essentially been slightly better than league average if WAR is be believed, though its peripherals definitely say that there's room for improvement.
 
As such, I'm going to wade into the dollars vs. development debate and take a look at the FA relievers from the 2018 season to see if it was worth spending the money. I'll split these out by contract value. That's a bit arbitrary, but it does speak to the general demand for these players. My main source is this ESPN list. I'm not going to pretend that I've found all of them, so apologies if I missed a few. I'm not going to touch minor league signings.
 
The cream of the Crop:
Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a bust, posting an ERA north of 5 out of the pen in 20 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP.
Andrew Miller - Another big name in the RP market, Miller has been, so far at least, a bust as well, posting a 4.80 ERA for the Cards after signing a 2/25 deal with an additional option. His K rate has improved this season but his WHIP has gotten worse with increases in hits, walks, and HRs per 9 innings.
Adam Ottavino - Our first success story on the big name candidates comes from Ottavino, who thus far has been a dominant option in the back of the Yankees' pen. His control has been a bit worse than normal (walking 6.5 batters per 9), but his hit rate is an absurd 4.5 per 9 and his strike out rate has increased as well. So far at least the 3/27 contract he signed has been good for NY.
Craig Kimbrel - He's still unsigned. So the book is still out.
Jeurys Familia - Familia chose to remain with the Mets this offseason, and thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed as his ERA is also north of 5 and his WHIP has skyrocketed due in large part to doubling his walk rate. His HR rate has doubled too thus far.
Zach Britton - Britton made bank signing a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has so far not disappointed. His K rate has increased substantially while the rest of his peripherals have remained pretty close to the same. His ERA is slightly lower as well.
Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has been probably the worst of this bunch. His ERA sits over 8. His K rate has dropped and he's seen large increases in both his hit and HR rates in his 16 appearances. His walk has dropped though.
David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow sorness.

In all, there have only been two hits of the 7 who signed in this group. I cannot emphasize enough that SSS is a huge factor here, but only 2 of these guys would have helped our pen... and unfortunately both are pitching for NY.
 
Second Tier
Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the mets, signing a 2/10 deal. Risk aside, he hasn't performed well thus far posting a 4.8 ERA in only 10 games. His peripherals are all over the place and seems to be buoyed largely by a couple extra home runs. His K rate and BB rates are both down this year.
Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and while the ERA is not pretty, his peripherals are in line with his career averages. Both his K rate and BB rates are up a bit and he has yet to give up a HR in his 21 innings. I'm not sure I'd call this a bust at this point as I think he's probably a victim of bad luck, but his 5.14 ERA is a bit ugly.
Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without.
Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and thus far every one of his peripherals have trended in the wrong direction. His ERA is north of 5.
Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and is currently in the minors rehabbing due to a viral infection. His 3 inning ML sample is a bit too small to gage at this point, though the results weren't good.

There are only 5 names in this tier, and so far every team wouldn't mind a do over. I could see a couple of these names evening out over the course of this season, but none of these guys would have helped us much at this point.
 
Cheap Fliers
Brad Brach - Brach has gotten results for the Cubs, but his peripherals say he's on borrowed time. His walk rate has doubled and his K rate is about at career norms. Still for 3 million dollar deal, Brach hasn't been bad.
Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been horrible in 15 innings so far.
Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. His ERA is a bit higher than we'd like for an RP at 3.63 but thus far he's performed. His K rate is way up as is his walk rate. Gearrin would be an upgrade over a couple players in our pen. Not bad for the money.
Greg Holland - I have to tip my cap to those on the Holland bandwagon along with Arizona for picking him for only 3.25M. He's been worth it posting a 1.80 ERA. Despite an elevated walk rate, his WHIP is down. His K rate is up. He's given up less hits and kept the ball in the park in his 15 innings. He would be one of our best relievers.
Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 14 innings, but has given up 9 hits and 2 runs in that span allowing for a 1.29 ERA.
Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness. The book is still out here.
Blake Parker - We know him. So far a win for the front office.
Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 10 innings to the tune of a 4.5 ERA thus far. Not a bad find in the value category. His peripherals all look pretty good and he's one of the few pitchers whose BB rate has dropped so far this season. I'm going with a bit of bad luck on the ERA, but he wouldn't present much of an upgrade to our pen.
David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He's yet to pitch.
Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's appeared in 17 games and only pitched 9 innings with an ERA of 6.
Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly. He's out a couple months due to a grade 2 strain of a lat muscle.
Adam Warren - Warren has been OK for the Padres with a 3.72 ERA. That's not special, nor are his peripherals, but he hasn't been horrible either. Not bad for 2.5M.

Of the 12 names on this list, there are only 3 clear misses at this point. Phelps was not expected to necessarily be pitching yet, so I'd say the jury is still out here. That may turn into a good deal for the Jays. Given their season though, he's likely going to be traded if he's pitching this summer. Holland, Kelley, and Parker have all been quite good for their teams. The other 6 fall under too soon to tell or value signings in that they haven't been bad, though they wouldn't necessarily be huge upgrades either.
 
One other trend that I noticed is that most relievers seemed to have noticeable increases in their BB rates. I'm not sure if that's more on an emphasis on Ks (which also were generally up), but relief pitching outcomes seemed much more skewed to higher BB and K rates over these pitcher's career norms. That appears, thus far, to the be the case across MLB as well, as RPs in general are averaging 3.93 BB per 9 along with 9.42 K per 9. Both are thus far significantly higher than last year.
 
Obviously, with these small samples, it's a bit too soon to tell on all of them, but for those of us (myself included) who wanted the Twins to do more, the results say that they would have likely missed.. The top tier has had some good performances, but has ultimately disappointed. The bottom tier has had about the same percentage of hits as the top tier along with some value guys who have performed as well as the top tier signings for much less. As much as I hate to say it, it looks like our front office hasn't done a bad job in this area.

Payroll angst has been at what seems like an all-time high this offseason. Joe Mauer’s contract came off the books, and there’s zero committed dollars for 2020 and beyond. Instead of allocating those funds though, the Twins are hovering around a $100 million payroll and made another “splash” by signing Martin Perez. Local media has suggested the Twins are waiting to get it right, but does that make sense?
 
Phil Mackey of the recently rebranded Skor North radio tweeted he’s been told directly by someone within the organization that this is a waiting game. Needing to get the “nucleus” of the roster right before adding pieces, the strategy of acquiring filler talent this offseason jives with that notion. Realistically speaking, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are going to be the straw that stirs Minnesota’s drink, and even the next wave of prospects won’t change that reality. Waiting for the perfect scenario seems to have plenty of hurdles, however.
 

 
There’s no denying that Sano and Buxton have both failed to live up to their prospect projections. Expected to be franchise cornerstones for years to come, neither has solidified that notion yet. Chief among the concerns for new manager Rocco Baldelli, will be jumpstarting and developing both of those guys into the players they’ve been expected to be. If he’s able to accomplish that goal, he’ll have done what former manager Paul Molitor was unable to achieve.
 
The idea that the spending, supplementation, or bolstering the roster with talent hinges on a set group of players seems like a poor decision, however. First and foremost, baseball is not a sport that’s dictated by even a handful of guys on a 25-man roster. Winning teams accomplish goals by being a stronger sum of their parts and raising the water level of those on the ends of the roster helps to push the bar. On top of that, projecting year-over-year certainties is somewhat of a losing battle.
 
Recently the Twins sprung up for an 85-win season in 2017 following the disastrous 103 loss campaign a year earlier. Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson pointed out that neither World Series winning Minnesota club was coming off a season in which competitiveness should’ve been the expectation either. On top of that, there’s plenty of opportunity to be had given the current landscape within the division. Minnesota has the opportunity to play two surefire 90 loss clubs in both Detroit and Kansas City. The White Sox are not yet ready to run, and the Indians have taken considerable steps backwards. Jumping at the window present by the AL Central itself should be enticing on the surface.
 
Oh yeah, and about those White Sox. Chicago is coming off a 2018 in which they lost 100 games and finished 4th in the division. Boasting one of the best farm systems in the sport, they are in the middle of guys yet to pan out (Yoan Moncada and Reynaldo Lopez), those yet to debut (Eloy Jimenez), and those still a ways off (Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert). Despite all of that, they’ve gone out and signed recruiting tools in Jon Jay and Yonder Alonso, while jumping to the front of the line in hopes of landing a game changing Manny Machado. There couldn’t be a blueprint highlight a less established nucleus than what Chicago currently employs, but they’ve chosen to spark winning by seeing what’s coming and supporting it.
 
At some point, the Twins need to be held accountable. Holding off on spending in previous seasons while battling uncertainty and a less than ideal opportunity cost was defendable. With more than their fair share of assets available, talent on the rise, and the red carpet nearly rolled out in the division, the sensibility this time around is nowhere to be found.
 
We can continue to wait for a sign, an omen, or an airplane flying a banner. In the meantime, I guess we just wait for the circumstances to be even more ideal.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

When I was growing up, I thought Dick and Bert were awesome. They had the fun “Circle me Bert” shtick, seemingly great rapport with each other, and good timing on bringing excitement to the game. But, I was young - I didn’t know any better. This season is the first summer I’ve enjoyed diving into statistical truths in baseball. I think the analytical trend in the game has not been kind to our FSN announcing crew. It’s made them both increasingly bitter and more frequently inaccurate. Starting in April, I decided to make a list of falsehoods uttered by FSN contributors. I’ve come up with my top 5 at the midway point in the year, but hope many are added in the comments section below
 
1. Jack Morris claims you can’t measure spin rate.
 
This one was an absolute doozy and I believe almost every Twins Daily writer picked up on it and commented on it on Twitter. Jack claimed during a game that he didn’t think it was possible to accurately calculate the spin rate of either a batted ball or a pitch. This is on par with somebody saying they just don’t “believe” in climate change. Ridiculous.
 
2. Bert Blyleven compares Jake Odorizzi to Brad Radke multiple times
 
This is the one that kicked off this project. I could be mistaken, but I believe it was first in Odorizzi’s second start that Bert mentioned how similar he was to Radke. My immediate reaction was to look up prevalence of free passes in both players’ careers. Odorizzi has a career BB/9 of 3.1 (4.1 in 2018 so far). Now, this isn’t a ridiculously high number, but let’s compare in Radke’s career BB/9 – 1.6. Radke was a master of control; it was beautiful to watch. In 2005, in 200.2 IP, he only had 23 walks. Maybe he meant both pitchers were American and 6 feet, 2 inches tall, but I doubt it.
 
3. Torii Hunter has a strange take on launch angles.
 
This one was admittedly rather hilarious. Parker Hageman and Aaron Gleeman called my attention to it as I missed it live. Here is the quote: “Like I said, the launch angle is good for some people, but I think everybody can’t hit with the launch angle,” said Hunter. “I heard [Toronto Blue Jays third baseman] Josh Donaldson say he launches the ball. If you look at his swing, it really has no launch. It actually goes through the ball, and then it launches actually through the ball. But you can’t go after it with the launch.”
 
This isn’t even Torii’s hottest take in the world of sports. He once said (as a player for the Tigers) “But I can tell you this, I made love to my wife the other night and I caught a cramp in my hamstring. I actually put my leg out and kept performing. So there’s no excuse,” in response to Lebron James suffering cramps in the NBA Finals. Torii Hunter is one of my favorites and I enjoy having him on the broadcast, but seriously?
 
4. Bert Blyleven says Fernando Rodney doesn’t give a lot of free passes.
 
Just this last Monday against the Royals, Rodney was in to save a nice win for the Twins. During Rodney’s appearance (I believe on a 3-0 count), Bert blurted out that Rodney “doesn’t walk a lot of people.” Huh? Even to people who don’t check stats, Rodney has a reputation of making things interesting in save situations by walking batters. In fact, his career BB/9 is 4.4…definitely not a low walk rate.
 
5. Tim Laudner yells at the rulebook.
 
Now, I will admit this isn’t a falsehood. He just has a strong opinion on the rule change dealing with catchers and how they block the plate. The issue came up with Anthony Rizzo sliding and clipping the leg of Pirates’ catcher Austin Hedges. I included this on the list for two reasons: 1) it was hilarious how mad he got and 2) it goes with the theme of ex-players at FSN that can’t seem to progress with the times. It got to the point on Twins Live that Laudner was essentially getting worked up looking at the rule on a piece and paper and saying what a disgrace the change has been. We understand you’re mad, but calm down. The rules aren’t going to go back, so just accept.
Honorable Mention: Tim Laudner says the Twins swept a “very good” Orioles team

I don’t even need to say anything about this, do I?
 
Thus concludes my top 5 falsehood list. I hope you’ve gotten a kick out of our broadcast crew. For all the falsehoods, they are pretty good contributors and I enjoy the comparisons and theories every once in a while. Plus, we always have Cory Provus on play-by-play on the radio, and the occasional appearance of Justin Morneau in the TV booth (the eventual dream team, I hope).
 
What are some of your favorite contributions from our FSN crew? Let me know in the comments below!
 
-Miles

Through eight games in the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins have played to a .500 record. Having had to deal with blistering cold, and even some snow, it's hardly felt like a true baseball season. If there's one thing that has felt warm and fuzzy however, it's been the look and output of first basemen Joe Mauer.
In 2017, Mauer returned to the land of .300 batting averages for the first time since 2013. He posted an .801 OPS bolstered by a .384 OBP all while looking the part of a guy that has a trio of batting titles under his belt. Having already transformed himself into a Gold Glove caliber first basemen, getting back to his old ways at the dish was a nice sigh to see. What's encouraging is that early returns in 2018 suggest that there may be more to come.
 
To understand where we are, we should probably take a look back at where we've been. The last time Mauer was considered "himself" in 2013, he was putting balls in play with a 37.4% hard hit rating. His chase rates (O-Swing %) and swinging strike percentages have really never gotten out of line, which indicates that his going well has always been a reflection of barreling the baseball. Fast forward to when things took a turn for the worst, and we find ourselves at the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Mauer's .732 and .718 OPS in those two seasons respectively are a career worst. It's no coincidence that those numbers were posted in conjunction with 28% and 29.8% hard hit rates.
 
Now let's jump back to the present. A year ago, Mauer looked like a revitalized and rejuvenated player. His 2.2 fWAR last year was a high water mark since the last time he was an All Star (2013), and it was backed by a 36.4% hard hit rate. What's great is that the early returns in 2018 don't make that look like an anomaly, and if anything, suggest that things may be trending even a bit better.
 
Sure it's early, so let's pump the breaks on another MVP type season, but Mauer's start is pretty eye-popping. Thus far the Twins first basemen has a career best 47.6% hard hit rate, and he's already put 11 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. A season ago his total was 204 and right now he's on pace to slightly eclipse that with a total of 223. Diving in even a bit further to those barreled balls, 10 of the 11 have been hit 100 mph or harder. In 2018 Mauer generated exit velocities of 100+ mph on 105 different occasions. With his current pace, he'd nearly double that in 2018 as he tracking towards 203 occurrences.
 
What we're seeing in the early going from Mauer is a batter that's not only locked in, but one that isn't being cheated either. His 13.4% chase rate is more than 3% better than at any other point in his career. Having always had a very good idea of where the strike zone is, Joe is currently dictating at bats, than walloping the baseball when it comes into his hitting zone. Last season, Mauer's 13.9 K% was 26th among qualified MLB hitters. At just 10% out of the gate in 2018, only 15 qualified hitters have posted better numbers.
 
There's no denying that there's a level of regression awaiting its turn to set in. After all, Mauer has a current seven game hitting streak and owns a .375/.500/.542 slash line out of the gate. The .429 BABIP is incredibly high, but also reflective of the quality contact he's continued to generate. Even with regression though, the process has yielded results that should display a level of sustainability with the assumption that the blueprint is stuck to over the course of the season.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota isn't going to watch Joe Mauer win another batting title by the end of his career (Jose Altuve exists in the American League). What is becoming more clear however, is that there's some serious ability left in the tank for a guy trending towards a Hall of Fame career. On the final year of his deal with the Twins, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would be well served to bring this guy back for another couple of years. If Joe wants to keep trotting out to the diamond, it doesn't seem like his skills have told him that's a bad idea.
 
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I'm very happy that Joe had a great year. It was nice to see him return to the .300 club.
 
Many years ago I sat in a packed, humid gym for a taping of an ESPN special focusing on Joe - just as contract negotiations were heating up. He had just won the MVP, his second consecutive gold glove, and became the first catcher to lead the league in average, obp, and slugging. When I looked up the details of his contract I noticed that there are bonuses of $25k for each Gold Glove or All-Star Selection. So perhaps his twins will after all get new shoes for Christmas.
 
Anyhoo, I recently ran across a Letterman-style top ten list I created in 2009 for his demands in the big contract. Enjoy:
 
Top Ten Joe Mauer Contract Requirements
10. Any written mention of “M&m boys” must consist of one lower case “m” to denote justin morneau
9. At every home game, must be met at his car by Jerry Bell, Howard Fox, Bill Smith and Dave St. Peter and carried in a Cleopatra-like palanquin into Target Field
8. Opposing fielders must say “one mvp, two mvp, three mvp” prior to moving in any direction in an attempt to field a ball put into play by Mr. Mauer
7. Ten bucks added to bi-weekly payroll every time Gardy says “…and we’ll go from there”
6. Umpires must inquire of Mr. Mauer regarding his opinion as to whether the immediately preceding pitch did indeed cross into the strike zone prior to signaling strike or ball. Said requirement is optional during play in which Mr. Mauer is neither catcher nor batter nor a game in which the Minnesota Baseball Club (nor any future Yankee Baseball Clubs for which Mr. Mauer may play) is not participating.
5. Searchlight added to top of hitting and catching helmets that projects letters “MVP” onto clouds on overcast nights
4. Bud Selig must, at his own expense, fly in and host weekly gala luncheon for all mlb catchers that have won batting titles (no descendants, please)
3. In any situation likely requiring him to slide, Nick Punto must belly-slide immediately under Mr. Mauer to reduce possibility of injury
2. Opposing players stealing second must run laterally so as never to show their back to Mr. Mauer and repeatedly bow during their attempt
1. Two words: Sideburn insurance

10 seasons into his Major League Baseball career, Joe Mauer was a number one overall pick playing for the hometown team, and owned the title of being the best catcher in the sport. Across that span, he had played in 1,178 games slashing .323/.405/.468. With awards piling up, it seemed certain a career was destined to be capped off with a Hall of Fame ceremony, the a traumatic brain injury occurred. Things have been different since, but in 2017, the Twins long tenured star is forcing us to reconsider.
 
There's next to no argument that can be made against Mauer's first ten years in the big leagues being among the best we've ever seen from a catcher. He piled up three batting titles, and MVP award, three Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and six All Star Game appearances. Despite playing arguably the most demanding position on the diamond, he was among the best players on either team on a nightly basis.
 
Since 2013, Mauer's post playing accolades have become murky. Dealing with the lingering effects of a career-altering injury, he's been a shell of his former self. Forced into a positional switch playing first base, he profiles oddly for the position as he's never been the traditional power hitter. From 2014 onwards, his slash line has dipped to a more human .275/.360/.388. There have been no awards handed out, and he has put forth just one season above 1.6 fWAR (the current one, in 2017).
 
Now, looking at his career arc as a whole, Mauer presents an interesting case for Hall of Fame enshrinement. First and foremost, the largest caveat remains that his playing career is not over, and may be far from reaching that point. With another year left on his current deal in Minnesota, and good reason to continue playing (at least briefly) beyond that, we're not in a place for definitive conclusions. That being said, 2017 has presented us an opportunity to take another look at what could become a compelling case.
 
Knowing what the numbers are, Mauer likely is never going to hit the "automatics." While he'll surpass 2,000 hits, he won't reach 3,000. He's not going to hit 500 homers, and and he may not even reach 1,000 RBI. His case for a plaque really never hinged on those targets anyways though, so let's take a look at what matters.
 
Assuming he never wins another, Mauer's three batting titles put him in rare air. he's only the third catcher in history to win a batting title, the first since 1942, and the only ever for the America League. With three batting titles to his credit, only 14 players in the history of the sport have repeated as winners more often than the Twins star. Somewhat of a throw in for his batting title years (and one extra), he also has four Silver Slugger awards.
 
Looking at his MVP award, Mauer also profiles rather favorably. Getting the nod in 2009, he became the first catcher to accept the honor since Ivan Rodriguez in 1999. Only 17 catchers have ever taken home the hardware, and only five have done so since 1970. Most backstops are brought in for their defensive acumen, or the ability to hit for power. Mauer combined both in 2009, and as a catcher, was a threat both with the bat and the glove.
 
That takes us to arguably the most compelling award, the Gold Glove. Mauer tallied three of them behind the plate. Only 11 catchers in the awards history have won more Gold Gloves than Mauer. Three is an impressive total on its own, but it's what Mauer is positioned to do in 2017 that takes thing up a notch. Joining Placido Polanco and Darin Erstad, the Twins (now) first basemen, would be just the third player in history to win a Gold Glove at two different positions. He would also be the first player in history to win Gold Gloves at catcher, and any other position.
 
Statistically speaking, Mauer is going to have a hard case to make. Since 2013 and going forward, his career is far from what it was. However, he'll likely still end his time in the majors with a solid .300+ average, and his fWAR will still do some good. Currently he has composed a career mark checking in above Hall of Famers such as Ralph Kiner, Kirby Puckett, Phil Rizzuto, Roy Campanella, and Lou Brock. What needs to be his calling card however, is what could have been, and the hardware that is.
 
There's no telling whether or not Mauer can put up another Gold Glove caliber season at first base. He's still young enough, and has looked incredible in the role this year. Whether or not that happens depends on usage and how he ages. Right now though, assuming the award is properly distributed in 2017, the Minnesota natives case for The Hall just got a lot more interesting.
 
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On May 13, 2017 Byron Buxton was near rock bottom. 30 games into his season for the Minnesota Twins, he looked lost at the plate, was batting just .168, and owned a paltry .500 OPS. After an exciting September 2016, his new season had gotten off to a terrible start. Fast forward to today and things have changed, but it's the "how" and "why" that tell the story.
 
Despite continuing to play otherworldly defense, Buxton was once again scuffling at the big league level. Despite raking at every stop along the way, he just couldn't put it together for the Twins. With only 5 extra base hits through 30 games, and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio, things were all going downhill. From the outside looking in, it's not as if there was a point in which things clicked, but small tweaks along the way have now narrated a different story.
 
Fast forward to August 21, and Buxton is batting .243 with a .682 OPS. It's still a far cry from where he'd like to be, but there's no denying the massive jump in production. He's in the midst of a 12 game hitting streak (.400/.408/.800) and owns a .366/.402/.6123 line in 27 games dating back to July 4th. While the production in and of itself are fun to marvel at, it's worth digging to see what changes took place.
 
Having both added and abandoned the leg kick multiple times over his career with the Twins, Buxton's swing has been a work in progress. At times, he's struggled with plate coverage, and a weak front side has prevented him from reaching and driving the outside pitch. He's continued to work with new hitting coach James Rowson to find something that works, and as the results come, so to does the comfortability. Outside of the physical changes though, we can eye a few trends that have yielded positive results.
 
Through April, Buxton had a swinging strike rate of 16.1% and was making contact just 65.3% of the time. Both of those numbers are lackluster, and combining them with a 31.8% chase rate, there was little room for success to follow. Jump ahead to August, and Buxton has overhauled two of those three areas. He's swinging through just 11.4% of pitches, and his contact rate has jumped to 76.9%. He's still chasing often, now 34.8% of the time, but it would stand to argue that the reason isn't because he's being fooled.
 
Like teammate Eddie Rosario, Buxton is somewhat of a free swinger. Now generating more contact and having an enhanced level of success, he's likely finding himself expand the strike zone on pitches he genuinely likes. While that still isn't going to produce ideal results, it's a better practice than flailing the bat head at pitches you've simply been fooled on. In fact, what Buxton's chase rate illustrates, is that his approach at the plate is still a work in progress, and there's even more to squeeze out when it comes to production.
 
There have been times throughout Buxton's maturation at the plate he's struggled with different zones of coverage. Whether it be not having the ability to turn on the inside fastball, or to drive the outside breaking pitch, plate coverage was a by-product of a breakdown in swing mechanics. As those have begun to correct themselves, the Twins centerfielder has seen an uptick across the board. The next step for him is to settle in even further on pitch recognition, and hit balls in the zone he choose, rather than the ones opposing pitchers dictate to him.
 
As the confidence has grown, the output has turned more favorable as well. Looking at the first two months of the season in comparison to the last three, quality has taken a significant leap forward. Rather than dribbling balls into the ground, Buxton has generated quality contact with launch angles that give him a chance to do something on the basepaths. His radial charts between the two instances display a night and day difference.
 
Right now, as a .240 hitter, the Twins have themselves and above average regular. A Gold Glove defender is doing enough at the plate, Minnesota can't complain. Getting up closer to something like .260/.340/.480 would put him in elite territory. It's encouraging to see the process take shape in more than just the month of September, and it's great to know that there's still room to grow. At 23 years old, the Georgia native is probably just beginning to scratch the surface, and the prime that lies ahead of him remains incredibly exciting.
 
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You may have noticed that Eddie Rosario has been hitting higher in the order of late. Part of it has been that the Twins have faced a number of lefties lately, and he’s one of the few batters on the team holding their own against them. Part it is also that Miguel Sano has been sidelined for the past few days after getting hit on the hand with a pitch against the Texas Rangers.
 
But perhaps a large part of it stems from the fact that Rosario is having a nice offensive season, too. For the season, Rosario is hitting .284/.323/.464. The on-base percentage is a career-high by nearly 30 points. He set his career-high in walks for a season on July 5 with 16. That’s not a misprint -- he drew more walks in the first half of 2017 than he did in all of 2016 or the year prior.
 
We’ll come back to that in a bit.
 
It’s not as though Rosario has stung the ball all season long -- at least not from a results standpoint. The 26-year-old left fielder headed into June hitting a very Rosario-like .269/.302/.431. He then hit .291/.341/.519 in the month of June and has been swinging well since, with a slash line of .297/.342/.492 over his last 54 games. His K/BB ratio is 41-13 over that stretch, and while that won’t make anyone forget about Joe Mauer, it is important that he controls the strike zone better -- as we noted this offseason when we projected a possible breakout.
 
From the surface, it’s not hard to see that Rosario is taking a better approach at the plate. While he’s still susceptible to swinging at pitcher’s pitches early in counts or getting himself out, he’s done a much better job laying off pitches outside of the zone. Rosario’s chase rate in his rookie season was 45.6 percent. In other words, he swung at pitches out of the zone nearly half the time -- a staggering figure. That improved to 41.7 percent last year and now 36.7 percent this season. The American League average is 29.7 percent, so while there has been some improvement, more could still be justified.
 
The improved discipline also shows up in his swinging strike rate. That rate peaked last year at 15.3 percent, but is down to a career-low 12.1 percent this season. Again, while that’s progress, it’s still a bit off AL average (10.4 percent).
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage to read the rest of this article here.

Some comments made by Twins center fielder Byron Buxton during the road trip to Fenway Park last week sent the blogosphere/Twittersphere into a tizzy. Buxton, who has hit just .209/.283/.303 this season coming into Thursday night’s game against the Orioles, told Jake Depue of 1500ESPN that he had scorned the leg kick he used to start the season in order to put the ball in play more — including more balls hit on the ground.
 
“[The goal is] putting the ball in play more,” Buxton told Depue. “Putting it on the ground more to get it out of the air. With the leg kick I was more fly ball oriented. It didn’t give me a chance to get on base. Now putting it on the ground I at least have the chance of beating it out or them rushing the throw and making an error.”
 
It’s not hard to read what Buxton said and be immediately discouraged. There’s a reason why the catchphrase among hitters is “Elevate and celebrate.” It’s not exactly earth-shattering science, either; hit the ball on the ground, and you limit yourself to singles and lots of outs. Hit it in the air, and you’re open to not only singles, but extra-base hits of all shapes and sizes.
 
So to hear what Buxton said and not immediately think that he was moving away from his strength and ceiling for the false security of the “safety” of his speed is totally understandable.
 
But according to hitting coach James Rowson, the fears are also unfounded.
 
Make no mistake about it: the Twins are in no way trying to get Buxton to be a slap-happy, beat-it-into-the-ground-and-beat-the-throw kind of hitter.
 
“Absolutely not,” Rowson said of the seemingly prevalent thought that the Twins wanted Buxton to hit the ball into the ground and use his speed as his primary offensive weapon. “Absolutely not. Here’s the deal: I clearly do not want Byron Buxton to hit the ball on the ground and run. (laughs) That is not in the plan. Without a doubt, he’s has a chance to be a dynamic player in this league for years to come and he has the ability to drive the baseball.”
 
Rowson added that he was encouraged by Buxton’s progress even as recently as Thursday night, as the youngster absolutely peppered some balls on the way to a 2-for-4 night — his second multi-hit game in a row and third over his last six games.
 
“Just last night he hit three balls over 100 mph, which shows you that he’s hitting baseballs hard in the last few days,” Rowson said. “It’s starting to come along. No, the goal is not to hit balls on the ground. The goal is going to be to use the whole field and hit balls hard.”
 
Please click through to read the rest of this article here on ZoneCoverage.com.

34 years old and in the second to last season of his eight-year deal with the Minnesota Twins, Joe Mauer has given the organization a brand new opportunity. Despite being sapped from the sure-fire Hall of Fame trajectory he was on as a catcher, Mauer has mostly scuffled at first base. In 2017 though, there's a different narrative beginning to emerge. In his current form, Mauer presents some intriguing value to the Twins.
 
The knock on Mauer at first base has always been that he doesn't hit for enough power to play the corner spot. While that's a fair assessment, he's turned into a premier defender. He's absolutely worthy of a Gold Glove in 2017, and should've been more in the conversation a season ago had he played in enough games to qualify. While the defensive metrics may be fickle, the vast majority tip the scales in his favor. All of that is for another time however, this new opportunity is about Joe Mauer the hitter.
 
Owning a career .308/.390/.444 slash line, Mauer likely won't be putting up the slugging percentage of his career average any time soon. However, he's shown that when healthy and given regular rest, he's still not someone opposing pitchers should want to face in 2017. On the season, his .287/.360/.404 slash line is the best mark he's posted since the last time he was an All-Star, in 2013. More impressively yet, Mauer's numbers under the hood are relatively gaudy.
 
It's been a talking point for some time that the lefty has declined greatly against similarly-handed pitchers. In 2017, Mauer has 67 plate appearances against lefties, and he owns a paltry .542 OPS. Against righties however, he's slashed .305/.381/.448 with all five of his home runs, 15 of his 17 doubles, and driven in 26 of his 33 RBI. There's really no other way to put it, Mauer remains a menace against right-handed pitching.
 
At 34, Mauer isn't the same hitter that used to draw walks more often than he struck out. That streak all but ended in 2012. However his 14.6 K% ranks 35th in MLB, and only Dustin Pedroia has a lower (3.8%) SwStr% than the Twins first basemen (4.0%). After topping out at 112 strikeouts during 2015, Mauer is at just 45 through the club's first 83 games, putting him on pace for an acceptable 88 (lowest since 2012).
 
Diving a bit further into the output, Mauer's 34.6 Hard% is the best mark he's posted since 2012, and while he's going the opposite way more often than any season since 2014, he's putting the ball in the air more often (27.6%) than any season dating back to 2009 (29%). At this point, we know groundballs aren't the way to sustainable success in the big leagues, and Mauer has created a perfect storm for himself.
 
While highlighting the good side of things may seem self serving, the reality, at least to a certain extent, is that's exactly the point. The Twins have an opportunity going forward to be self serving with Mauer. I'd love it if he could pick up the hardware this season and win a Gold Glove. A year from now however, putting him into a full time platoon with a right handed first basemen (with a bit bigger power bat), makes all the sense in the world. Rather than having an above average answer to part of the equation, they'd immediately have a true threat at first base.
 
We have seen (and probably should've known) that Kennys Vargas is nothing more than a bench bat in a best case scenario. ByungHo Park is starting to turn things around at Triple-A, but there hasn't been much power there, and a handful of question marks still remain. One of the most often called for things off of the Twins bench is a right handed power bat; killing two birds with one stone by asking that player to be a first basemen seems like an ideal scenario.
 
If there's a necessary caveat to mention in all of this, it's that there's not a ton of options when it comes to lefty-mashing first basemen. Of the impending free agents, you're left with a list of Mike Napoli and Mark Reynolds. The former was a Twins target that's been awful in 2017, and the latter has reverse splits, hitting righties far better (and also has to beat the skepticism of hitting outside of Coors Field).
 
Regardless of how this narrative plays out, what is certain is that Joe Mauer has given the Twins an opportunity. They can upgrade first base production by pairing him with a partner. He isn't going to sign another long term deal following this contract, but being kept around on short deals after it, he's an asset as opposed to a former aging vet like Torii Hunter may have been.
 
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2/3 of an inning, 4 BBs, 0 Ks, a double and a triple (by Kyle Schwarber!), and 3 ER.
 
'Nuf said.
 
March 9: changed "Ws" to "BBs" in response to comments from Louie C.K.

Today the posts have mostly been negative with three young players optioned to AAA. Many have pointed out that the rebuilding Twins won't have a single rookie from their system on the 25-man roster going north. The average age of the team won't be considerably different.
 
Despite all of this, I'm optimistic that the Twins will improve. The next wave is very close and they could provide a real boost. I have predicted/advocated for Hicks to be demoted since the end of the regular season and while Schafer/Robinson isn't optimum, the better of Hicks or Rosario should be ready before mid-season.
 
The pitching rotation will be better. Any regression from Hughes should be matched by regression for Nolasco. I think Gibson will be really good and Santana will be the best #4 starter the Twins have had since the 90s. I hope the leash isn't long for the bullpen.
 
I have predicted 85 wins, really against all odds. I think there is enough talent there to improve even though the division will be tough. It will take filling of inside straights and rolling sevens, but I'm sticking with 85 wins, with or without Meyer, May, Rosario or Hicks and a bunch of relievers.