Mike Frasier Law

Not sure if this is "fun" but it involves numbers. Our top 5 starting pitchers by fWAR are all currently on the DL: 1) Ryan 1.0 2) Paddack 0.9 3) Ober 0.9 4) Gray 0.9 5) Winder 0.5 How exactly are we still leading our division?

Damn. I thought I was going to be one of the first. I'm in for the long haul my friends.

Those were my exact thoughts. I've been accused of having permanent rose-tinted contacts in when it comes to the Twins, but if Buxton is gone this year, I think I'm taking a year or three off watching baseball. At least MLB.

Also Austin Martin? Fangraphs: "The best bat in the 2020 draft, Martin features a big league approach, outstanding contact ability and average power. The Blue Jays will figure out his defensive home as he keeps on raking." If true, that's two top-50 prospects in return

Simeon Woods-Richardson. Tell me about him!

To put that hard hit% into context, on the year he's at 61.0%, good for 3rd place and only one of three at or above 60%. The leader is at 61.8%. Last year's leader was Nelson Cruz at 52.5%. So 61.8% is ungodly. For the last 30 days, Sano is leading the pack at 65.9%!!!. Second is 61.5%. nearly 4.5% above second - the same gap as between 2nd place and 8th place on the leaderboard.

Fangraphs just dedicated an article on Arraez: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-arraez-sui-generis/. Summary is because of his insane plate discipline, his lack of power is not the hindrance it seems. So long as he keeps putting balls in play all the time, he'll at least be an average offensive player. Average being his floor with this plate discipline

Is there a conversion of OAA to WAR or some other value we're used to seeing? When I see a -5, I'm trained to think that's worth about half a win, but I don't know if that's right. Anyone?

Pineda, and I think he can. Last year was his first after TJ, and the more he pitched, the better he looked. Here is his ERA and xFIP by month: April May June July Aug Sept/Oct ERA 6.21 4.50 3.58 2.59 3.52 2.25 xFIP 5.1 4.80 4.07 3.98 3.81 3.28 He increased his k/9 rate from 8.16 to 9.45 between halves. He dropped his HR/9 from 1.55 to 1.18. His second half k-BB% of 20.2% would have tied him with Robbie Ray for 15th in baseball. Berrios was 17.1% in 2019. I think Pineda has the skills and mental fortitude to be an ace. If he steps up next year, we're going to be scary good.

Agreed that Graterol won't pitch in the rotation all year, but I'd like to see the reverse - have him start in the rotation and move him to the bullpen when his innings exceed 120 or so.

I feel like people forget that Big Mike was a badass prior to TJ and last year was his first year back. He'll be 31 and fully healed this year. In the three years with the Yankees prior to his TJ surgery, his line was better than Wheeler's career line: Mike: 9.5 k/9, 2.0 bb/9, 1.4 hr/9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.24 xFIP. Wheeler: 8.72 3.24 .9 3.71 3.91 The last time Bumgarner had a lower FIP or xFIP was in 2016. Ryu has had better numbers, but is going to be 33. Last year he pitched 182 innings, but he's only pitched more than 82 innings in 4 of the last 7 years, and 2 of those 4 were in 2013 and 2014. I think any of our current three starters has the ability to be an ace on any given day, and should be expected to pitch no worse than a #3 starter every time.

At 2d base. Should have clarified....

For what it's worth, projections see him as being for real (for the most part). Fangraphs has already posted 2020 Steamer projections, which " uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers." It also posts Depth Chart projections, which "are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff." With that in mind, I'd expect someone with such a small track record to have a very significant regression built into the projections. They both project that he regresses. But not that much. They project he walks less, but only from 9.8% to 8%. They project he strikes out more, but only from 7.9% to 8.5%. They project his BABIP drops from 355 to 332. All told, they project him to be a 312/369/415/784 hitter, which amounts to a 2.6 WAR. That would put him top 5 or so in the AL, and top 10 or so in baseball.

This story read like a eulogy to me - and it makes me sad. I am a fan of Gibson and I think he’s likely to have a very good year next year. I doubt it will be with the twins. He reminds me most of Scott Baker. A pitcher whose results were regularly good to very good but almost never outstanding. I was consistently frustrated with casual fans complaining about “merely” being good and not great.