mazeville

In 2011 the Twins had the 9th highest payroll in baseball. That was the last year the team KNEW it was going to be competitive going into the year. The team instead lost 99 games that year. It was a total mess. Problem is that the team has been uncompetitive since then and spending on free agency during most of those years hasn't been the wisest course of action. Last year, they spent $130 million -- 18th in the league, but in line with their standing in terms of total revenue. There are some serious questions about this team going into this year. Sure, I'd love it for the Twins to sign Manny Machado. But I'm OK if they keep their flexibility going forward and use it to their advantage in future years.

Phil Hughes was arguably Ryan's best original signing. It's the quick extension that was Ryan's undoing. But the original signing was fantastic.

This is clearly speculation. But think about it ... The Twins have a ton of payroll flexibility not just this year but next year in particular. Last year they waited until the end of the free agency period before pouncing on a couple of players. Both of these are the types of guys you'd want in free agency -- they are still young, meaning they are more likely to be relatively strong players during the latter part of the contract. Machado is only a year older than Byron Buxton. It's not as far-fetched as you might think. I doubt they do this, of course. But there's plenty of money this year and even more in future years.

And if it is then they have the flexibility to go out and get a costly starter or reliever at the trade deadline -- something the previous regime almost never did. Simple fact is this: The Twins in 2019 are going nowhere if the current core doesn't put it together, and that's a big question mark. To me, it's a defensible strategy to hold off on major expenditures given those question marks.

Look, I'm just reserving my criticisms for now. I'm just OK with years like this if, when the team really is ready to contend, they spend more than that 50% number on payroll. If they don't, then that's a problem. I think free agency is a crapshoot. I'd rather they use it when they are legitimately in contention and that they spend to keep existing players. Given the sheer uncertainty of the roster, I have no problem holding off. But if they DON'T spend, or make bold moves, when there is less uncertainty then I will start screaming. And despite the debates I'm having with people on this topic, I'll say this: Fans have every reason to criticize this team about spending. From 2001 to 2010 this team had a core to contend for a championship but repeatedly failed to get the one guy who could have made a real difference. This, after that whole contraction nonsense. And then we gave them a stadium. And then their team has sucked for most of the past eight years. So they deserve this, IMO.

Thank you for providing a link. You're inferring an awful lot from a single, one-sentence quote.

I have listened to and read an awful lot of Twins pieces and nothing has given me that indication. So my comment stands until I see otherwise. Not one person has been able to produce a link to back up their assumption that excess profits from keeping salaries low are not reinvested back into the team.

I have repeatedly seen the 50% number but I have not seen anything that says anything to the contrary of what I wrote. I do not know whether they would do that or not. But I'm going to keep some faith in the current regime until I see evidence otherwise. The problem the past few years is that the Twins have not been competitive enough where it would have been a good idea to invest in free agents, which has pulled down their payroll figure. They spent 50% of their revenue last year on payroll and the team stunk. I'm not terribly excited about it. I'll admit I'd rather see them sign someone like Manny Machado. But I understand the move given the big question marks surrounding players like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Way too many people harsh on the Twins to spend for spending's sake. But I would much rather see this team make intelligent decisions, which means holding back during uncertain years and then going after it when the team is close to contention. As I said in the original post, if they fail to make moves when the time is right (in other words, no holding back when you get the chance to trade for Alfonso Soriano or signing a top pitcher) then I will be at Target Field with a pitchfork, in the front row.

Do you know this or are you just saying this? And yeah, actually it is how these things should work, at least. Most companies work to generate a profit, and that profit goes into cash, which can be used to either pay investors through some form of a dividend or to reinvest back into the company. Theoretically, the Twins should use this $30 million in savings to reinvest back into the team in future years.

Link? I have not seen anything that suggests they wouldn't do this. In any event, if they don't, then as I said that the bottom of the comment that I'll be pretty furious.

I think that many people are missing the point about payroll. It's more about investing when the time is right. First, if the Twins get $260 million/year in revenues and plan to spend 50% of that, theoretically they should spend $130 million a year and therefore should spend another $30 million or more on payroll. Thus, people are looking at that single number and wondering why the Twins aren't spending more now, in an apparent belief that the $30 million will disappear into the ether. But that $30 million does not disappear. If the Twins are smart, and I'm going to assume that they are, then they will have that to spend in another year. Thus, if things work out right this coming season, they can spend more on the roster next year and theoretically can spend $160 million in 2020. The two single biggest questions going into this season are named Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. If you as a GM are looking at those two players, are you confident they will come back and reach their potential? They are two, massive "ifs." Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are also question marks. The base of this team is uncertain. That means spending a lot of money this year on payroll is a risk. I can buy the idea of the Twins holding off on spending IF they spend when the time is right. What I do NOT want to happen is this: The Twins do start contending and the team holds off on payroll to that 50% standard -- which would keep them at $130 million. A payroll of $130 million for a contending team with a core of players going into their primes is awfully restrictive. In the 2000s, when the team was in contention year after year, the previous regime did very little to bolster the roster by spending on a player or two to push the team over the top. They did not invest in the stud starting pitcher or the middle-of-the-order bat, either at the trade deadline or in free agency. And a team that at points was talented enough to win a World Series never even got there. So think of revenue not as a resource that disappears after a year but as ammunition that can be put to use when you are in best position to win the battle. If you were at war, you would not use up all of your ammunition if you were not in position to win. You would hold off until you had a good position. That's what the Twins should do. The Pohlads have earned this skepticism by holding down spending for so long and threatening to contract the team. And they have also earned that right by taking public money on a new stadium. I will reserve judgment until they do start contending. If Buxton and Sano return to form this season and the team starts winning games and the team doesn't make moves to bolster the roster at the deadline and then does nothing but peruse the bargain bin next offseason, then I'll be at Target Field with a pitchfork.

The Twins have ZERO idea what to expect from Buxton and Sano. Will they be near-all-star level? Or will they be brutal? The problem is that the difference between one or the other is the difference between contention and non-contention. And if you don't know what you're going to get out of your two most important core pieces, do you spend a ton on free agents and trades? You probably don't. It's a wise decision. Doesn't mean it's that much fun. Too bad, really. With Cleveland cutting salary and the White Sox not quite ready for contention yet this would be a nice window.

I remain convinced that the single, biggest difference between the Twins being legitimate contenders and rebuilding is Byron Buxton, because of the difference he makes on defense. And when his bat is going well he scares the hell out of teams because of his speed. So I'd be OK with an extension. Not my money.

I hate to say it but I might agree with this blueprint. I don't like the idea on the face of it. Seriously, more of the same? Are we really there? Yet we STILL don't know if the Twins' core group is strong enough to win a championship or get to the playoffs consistently, or weak enough that the team should blow it all up and start over. The Twins could go all-in on 2019 by signing several bigname free agents in the hopes that 2018 was an anomaly. But what if it wasn't? And what if those free agents suck? Then they not only suck but are stuck with some ugly salaries. Not great. What if they Sell, as some have said, and Buxton returns to his late-2017 form? What a waste! Might be a bit painful. But the more I think on it, the more a stay-the-course offseason, with just a couple of modest signings and/or trades, is the wisest course of action. No. I don't like it. I hate the whole idea. But I just don't like my other two choices. And if Buxton returns to form and Sano regains his power stroke this team absolutely has what it takes to compete. And if they do then the team can make some trades in the mid season to bolster the roster.

Let me fix this line for you ... "Buxton's total lack of contribution in 2018 was one of the biggest reasons Minnesota went nowhere." Pretty simple. Fix Buxton and this team is a lot better, period, on both sides of the ball. Don't fix Buxton and this repair job is a lot harder.