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Critique of a front office is easy to make in the midst of a deeply disappointing season. While many fans are languishing over the incoming July trade deadline, I've heard a lot of complaints about the lack of waiver claims made this season by the Minnesota Twins.
Why are the Twins continuing to trot out the likes of Colomé, Happ, and (formerly) Shoemaker, when the front office can claim replacement-level players from other teams for essentially nothing? 
The outright waiver transaction process is a deeply complicated one. Whenever a team wants to remove a player that is already on the 40-man roster, that player must first be offered to each of the other 29 major league teams. If another team claims that player, the player goes on that new team's 40-man roster. The full definition from MLB can be found here. 
Because I'm insane, and this season is awful, I decided to compile a list of every player that the Falvey/Levine front office has claimed from other organizations, in addition to players they've lost via waiver claims.
How have they fared in the waiver claim game?  Should they pick up the pace, now that they have nothing to lose? Do these claims actually amount to anything?
These questions are important... but so is the trip down memory lane, once you read some of these names. 
Players Acquired Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Claimed Position Team Claimed From fWAR in Minnesota 2/6/2017 Ehire Adrianza UTL IF San Francisco Giants 2.1 5/10/2017 Adam Wilk LHP New York Mets -0.2 6/7/2017 Chris Heston RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0 3/24/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 4/26/2018 David Hale RHP New York Yankees -0.2 5/28/2018 Taylor Motter UTL Seattle Mariners -0.3 8/3/2018 Johnny Field RF Cleveland Indians 0.1 8/3/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Cleveland Indians 0.2 10/31/2018 Michael Reed CF Atlanta Braves - 11/26/2018 C.J. Cron 1B Tampa Bay Rays 0.3 10/29/2019 Matt Wisler RHP Seattle Mariners 0.6 10/30/2020 Ian Gibault RHP Texas Rangers - 10/30/2020 Brandon Waddell  LHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.3 2/5/2021 Ian Hamilton RHP Philadelphia Phillies - 2/11/2021 Kyle Garlick RF Atlanta Braves 0.3 6/22/2021 Beau Burrows RHP Detroit Tigers -           Total fWAR 2.6 The Twins have claimed a total of 16 players from opposing organizations since Falvey/Levine took over after the 2016 World Series. Of these 16 claims, their most consequential claim was their very first one. Ehire Adrianza was never a star, but a very productive role player for a number of contending Twins teams. 

After that, the list isn't so impressive. Matt Wisler was great at slinging sliders in the bullpen during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but the Twins cut him last offseason in a puzzling move. C.J. Cron and the currently-injured Kyle Garlick have been the largest "successes" outside of Adrianza and Wisler, each account for 0.3 fWAR as right-handed hitters that were acquired to mash left-handed pitching. 
Most of these players did not remain on the 40-man roster for a long time. Quite a few were lost to waivers shortly after the Twins acquired them, which include Kenny Vargas, Johnny Field, Oliver Drake, and Brandon Waddell. Such is the life on the waiver wire for many MLB players. 
Players Lost Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Position Team Claimed By fWAR after Minnesota 11/18/2016 Adam Brett Walker LF Milwaukee Brewers - 8/26/2017 Tim Melville RHP San Diego Padres -0.2 9/14/2017 Engelb Vielma SS San Francisco Giants -0.1 11/3/2017 Randy Rosario LHP Chicago Cubs -0.3 11/3/2017 Daniel Palka OF Chicago White Sox -0.7 11/6/2017 Nik Turley LHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.2 1/22/2018 Buddy Boshers LHP Houston Astros 0.1 2/23/2018 JT Chargois RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.5 3/22/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 7/9/2018 Ryan LaMarre CF Chicago White Sox 0.4 10/10/2018 Juan Graterol C Cincinatti Reds -0.2 11/1/2018 Johnny Field RF Chicago Cubs - 11/1/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Tampa Bay Rays 0.4 1/11/2019 Aaron Slegers RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.4 5/26/2019 Austin Adams RHP Detroit Tigers -0.1 7/20/2019 Adalberto Mejia LHP Los Angeles Angels 0.0 8/14/2019 Ryan Eades RHP Baltimore Orioles -0.2 9/16/2019 Marcos Diplan RHP Detroit Tigers - 11/4/2019 Stephen Gonsalves LHP New York Mets - 9/5/2020 Ildemaro Vargas 2B Chicago Cubs -0.5 10/1/2020 Sean Poppen RHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.1 5/8/2021 Brandon Waddell LHP Baltimore Orioles 0 5/14/2021 Travis Blankenhorn 2B Los Angeles Dodgers -0.1 6/5/2021 Dakota Chalmers RHP Chicago Cubs - 6/18/2021 Shaun Anderson RHP Texas Rangers -           Total fWAR -0.5 You'll immediately notice this list of players lost via waivers during the Falvyey/Levine regime is a lot longer than the list of players they've acquired via waivers. All together, they have lost 25 players, which is 9 more players than they've claimed from other teams. 
The good news for the organization, is that this cumulative list has not come back to bite them. 10 of the 25 claimed players provided negative value for their new teams, after departing Minnesota. Daniel Palka's 2017 season really sunk this group, as he posted a -1.4 fWAR in only 93 plate appearances for the White Sox (after he provided 0.7 fWAR and a 109 wRC+ in 2018). 
The largest losses from this group have definitely been in the relief category, highlighted by JT Chargois, Oliver Drake, and Aaron Slegers. However, most of these players have had inconsistent careers, injuries, or both, in their time after playing for Minnesota. 
Even when factoring in some bullpen pieces this organization might regret losing, the total fWAR from these players after departing the Twins is -0.5 fWAR. The current front office has been right far more than wrong, when deciding how to churn the 40-man roster. 
Yearly Trends And Overall Takeaway
Year Players Claimed From Other Teams Players Claimed By Other Teams 2016/2017 3 6 2018 7 7 2019 1 6 2020 2 2 2021 3 4 Total Players 16 25       Total fWAR 2.6 -0.5 fWAR Difference   3.1 Overall, the Twins have gained 3.1 fWAR from their decisions to gain and lose players from the waiver wire. That's a pretty decent result for a type of front office transaction that is often overlooked. It averages out to about 0.69 fWAR per season, factoring in the 4.5 seasons of the Falvey/Levine regime. 
Most of that waiver activity came in 2017 and 2018, when the front office was still adjusting to their inherited players from the previous front office. Successful teams don't always gamble roster spots on players exposed to outright waivers, which is evident in the 2019 team. 
One major caveat to point out across the yearly trend is that teams were probably hesitant to claim players from other organizations during the COVID-19 pandemic, so 2020 and early 2021 should be viewed through that lens.
However, that didn't stop the Twins from claiming 3 bullpen arms (Ian Gibault, Brandon Waddell, and Ian Hamilton), and Kyle Garlick this offseason. The jury is still out on these claims, but Waddell did not go well. 
The most interesting thing about 2021 is that the Twins lost 4 players during their early season free-fall (Brandon Waddell, Travis Blankenhorn, Dakota Chalmers, and Shaun Anderson), before claiming Beau Burrows a few weeks ago from the Detroit Tigers.
Is former first-round draft pick Beau Burrows the tip of the iceberg? Now that 2021 is officially kaput, will the front office be more aggressive? 
I sure hope so. Moves will be made in the next few weeks, and this 40-man roster will be significantly different as we approach the trade deadline. The 40-man roster will likely be smaller, and the Twins will be in front of the line when contenders have to cut players to account for their deadline additions. 
Waiver claims are rarely sexy transactions, but sometimes you stumble into a Ehire Adrianza or a Matt Wisler. The Twins have proven to be more successful than not when it comes to their waiver claim game. It's time to play, because there's simply nothing to lose. 

Recently a side comment came up about why modern pitchers don't start 40 games a season like they used to.  The question intrigued me so I did a little searching.  The results surprised me.  Mostly I used the Stathead tool at baseball-reference.com, and the most useful table I constructed is this:
https://stathead.com/tiny/SBDaM
Since the modern era, 1901 and forward, it's never been the case that pitchers in general were regularly making 40 starts.
For periods of years, the major league leader would regularly reach 40.  A few years, there would be more than just one, but never ever as many as there were teams, meaning less than one per team.  So it wasn't part of the job description, it was an achievement.
There was kind of a peak of 40-game starts around 1904-08, another 1914-17, then it picked up again after expansion in 1962 (when the season got a little longer), then quieted down and peaked again around 1973, then basically died out around 1979.  The last 40-game starter was knuckleballer Charlie Hough in 1987, who come to think of it had that in common with other "recent" 40-game-starters Phil Niekro and Wilbur Wood. 
In those 87 years, there were a total of 140 such pitcher-seasons.  One or two a year.  Zero since then of course.
The individual pitchers weren't doing it for years and years without end, either.  Only 31 such seasons were logged by pitchers over the age of 30 (despite the myth that that was when a player would enter his prime).  8 by anyone 35 or older.  Starting 40 was always a young man's game.
For another perspective, Sandy Koufax in 1965 holds the record for season strikeout percentage, 29.5%, among pitchers who started 40 games in a season (and of course Sandy led his entire league in that regard that year, among players who qualified for the ERA title).  By contrast, in 2019 there were 16 ERA qualifiers who had a higher percentage than that.  And even though Sandy was a "unicorn" of his era, and also a prototype for today's pitcher, he was finished before his 31st birthday.  Most of the guys who ever started 40 games weren't striking out the side.
Today it's 5-man rotations. Divided into 162 games, that's about 32 starts per season.
Used to be 4-man rotations. Divided into 162, that gives you 40. Divided into the older 154-game schedule, that's 38 or so.
Of course in really olden days, back into the 19th century, you might have 3 or even 2 workhorses who handled the bulk of the chores.  But back then the schedules could be more erratic too, and the game was just played differently.
Anyway, major league teams settled into an every-fourth-game routine a lot quicker than people sometimes remember.  Well, remember reading about.  That made 40 an uncommon feat.
Managers would love to have their best pitcher get as many starts as possible, so they'd be sending someone out 40 times if they could.  The tImes changed, not the intestinal fortitude of the players.

/season

Entering July 24th 2017, the Minnesota Twins were 49-48 coming off a 9-6 loss to the Detroit Tigers the night before. The Twins now stood 2.5 games back of Cleveland, and ready to make a push towards claiming the AL Central crown for the first time in 7 years. "Falvine" decided to push the button, making their first major trade during their Twins tenure, and acquire Atlanta Braves starter, Jaime García . Finally, after years of purely terrible baseball, the Twins were back, and the Front Office was willing to go for it.  
Now, it's July 28th 2017, the Minnesota Twins are in Oakland, and on a 4 game skid as they sit 49-51. Jaime García takes the mound for the first, and only time as a Minnesota Twin. He pitches well, but unremarkably as he leads the Twins to a 6-3 victory ending the losing streak with a decent stat line: 6.2 IP  7 K  3 BB  8 H 3 ER. Flash forward a bit further to July 30th, the Twins are 50-52, Cleveland has gone on a run, and the Twins are 7 games out. Oh, how the turn tables. Falvine decides they're no longer pushing for that first division title in 7 years, so why hold onto the rental they just acquired? So, after spending less than a week as a Twin, Jaime García packs his bags once again and heads to the Bronx to become a Yankee.
As the leaves turn from green to wonderful fall colors, the Twins find out it didn't really matter if they bought or sold. Jaime García didn't pitch very well as a Yankee, and the Twins still managed to claw to a 85-77 record, going from the worst team in baseball to a wild card team in just a year. 7 years of terrible baseball. 13 years without a playoff victory, now with a chance to change that. October 3rd 2017, enter: the New York Yankees. We all know how this story goes, there's no point in reliving this one again.
 
So, okay, the trades themselves, what exactly happened? Looking back, I think we can safely consider Jaime García's performance itself a wash and rather insignificant. But what about the prospects involved?
Trade 1:
The Minnesota Twins receive:
SP Jaime García, C Anthony Recker, Cash Considerations. (Recker was soon released and never played for the Twins)
The Atlanta Braves receive:
SP Huascar Ynoa
Trade 2:
The Minnesota Twins receive:
SP Zack Littell , SP Dietrich Enns
The New York Yankees receive:
SP Jaime García
 
So essentially, the Twins gave up Ynoa, to get Littell and Enns. Neither Littell or Enns are with the Twins anymore, and only Littell had marginal success. Meanwhile, I have yet to mention the ginormous horse in the room. Huascar Ynoa has been the ace of the Atlanta Braves pitching staff thus far in 2021 pitching 44.2 Innings while garnering 1.8 bWAR. However, he could be out the rest of this year. That being said, the Braves potentially have a really good pitcher for a long time to come, and Falvine essentially gave Ynoa to them for free. Not every trade works out, many work out great, and many don't, and unfortunately this whole saga is the latter. Perhaps the best part of this whole saga for the Twins is that a day after sending Jaime packing to New York, they signed a guy from Utica with a rad mustache who was driving for Uber, fan fave Randy Dobnak.
 
Once again, all stats are thanks to Baseball Reference, and the picture thanks to MLB.com. What trades should we revisit next?

Someone posted here on Twins Daily about a sense of a Twins shakeup. I love the Twins too much not to contribute my ideas for an immediate shakeup.
Here’s a basic lineup that would represent a shakeup. Of course, Buxton would take over CF when he’s available. I’ve got a keen eye on St. Paul and Wichita and there are myriad good prospects. Here’s a take on a new lineup and a fresh start:
3B- Jose Miranda
SS- Jorge Polanco
2B-Nick Gordon
1B-Josh Donaldson
LF-Alex Kirilloff
CF-Aaron Whitefield
RF-Trevor Larnach
C-make a trade
DH-Cruz and Kepler
Super Utility-Luis Arraez
Release Jake Cave
Starting pitching: Release Happ and Shoemaker and replace with Dobnak and Ober. Griffin Jax could be recalled as the next option.
Bullpen: Bring up Thorpe, Vasquez, Farrell and Yennier Cano, consider Matt Canterino currently with 1.13 ERA in high A Cedar Rapids..
Replace Falvey, Levine and Baldelli. Bring in a competent veteran baseball manager such as Jim Leyland. I think he would be Franconia-like in incisive in game decisions, which have been sorely lacking from Baldelli.
Keep an eye on: Balazovic (currently injured), Duran (currently injured), Ernie De La Trinidad (OF, solid start at Wichita), Gilberto Celestino
The idea here is to create a more balanced roster. My changes could allow a dynamic base stealing element with Gordon, Buxton and Whitefield. The extra speed could be used to garner the Twins some extra inning wins by pinch running Whitefield when Buxton returns. My overhaul also ushers in the era of what promise to be exciting big league careers for Kirilloff and Larnach!
I see a very talented and exciting player in Nick Gordon. He had an electrifying debut with the Twins, stealing two bases! He also leads St. Paul in hitting with a small sample size. Plus his 2019 body of work was deceptively above average for a second baseman, with 29 doubles in 292 AB and he slashed .298/.342/.459. Current slash at St. Paul .333/.429/.611. Fun fact: Gordon’s OPS+ with the Twins is 246. Obviously mitigated by one game sample size.
Miranda is off to a sizzling start at Wichita with a .370/.400/.652 slash line. Plus he’s only 22 years old. 
Sano and Kepler would have to reclaim their jobs. They have had not helped the Twins. Kepler may have been resurgent before his injury, but I would go with my new outfield and find ways to use Kepler where he can actually help the team.
Twins Daily is my go to place for information on the Twins. I hope my contribution here gets your juices flowing as a Twins fan. We definitely don’t want to tap into the definition of insanity: keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results. WIN TWINS!!!
 
 
 
 

Today I wrap up the final piece in my mini-blog series where I ranked the Minnesota Twins roster by trade value, as this season has gone downhill quickly. Things haven't gotten any better, as they've just been swept by the division leading White Sox, and now find themselves down 10 games of ChiSox just 35 games into the 2021 campaign. If things continue to travel down this road, which it seems like they will, the Twins may have the most talent of any seller come July. In part 1, I took a look at players who have regressed or have massive contracts. Part 2 featured some names that carried the Twins in 2019, as well as a few players who will see their contract expire after this season. Today, we take a look at the final 6 players in the ranking.

6. RH DH Nelson Cruz 
If I was simply ranking the talent on the Minnesota Twins, there is no doubt that Nelson Cruz would be in the top 3, but that isn't what these rankings are. Nelson Cruz is without a doubt one of the top hitters in the MLB, despite being nearly 40 years old. However, he plays at a non-premium position, and there aren't many teams that are in need of a DH. Going through the list of the contenders, you have the Houston Astros who have Yordan Alverez. Cross them off. The White Sox have rookie of the year contender Yermin Mercedes. I don't see it. The New York Yankees have Stanton, the Red Sox have JD Martinez, and the Blue Jays have Rowdy Tellez and a handful of outfielders who can fill in at DH when George Springer is healthy. That leaves me with two teams: Oakland and Tampa Bay. Neither of these teams are known to be big spenders, and I'm not real confident that they'd have DH as their top need come July.  I think the most likely scenario sees Nelson Cruz staying put in Minnesota, and reevaluating his options in the off-season, when the NL is likely to add the DH
Prediction: Not Moved
 
5. LH RP Taylor Rogers
Taylor Rogers has been one of the best relievers over the past 4 seasons, despite his struggles in 2020, the advanced metrics still love Taylor Rogers. I agree with these numbers. Like any reliever, Rogers is violate and certainly prone to going through a rough stretch, but there aren't many who are prone to this. If the Twins decided to move Rogers, I think he would be the best reliever moved mid-season. Rogers is due for his 4th and final year of arbitration in 2022, and then becomes a free agent in 2023. If the Twins decide that they are simply retooling, I think Rogers sticks around. However, if they decide to commit to a rebuild, I think Rogers is certainly moved. However, I'm hesitant to saying the front office will, or should, commit to a rebuild. This is especially true on May 14th. With an already bad bullpen, trading Rogers would make 2022s bullpen abysmal. 
Prediction: Not Moved
 
4. RH SS Andrelton Simmons
Andrelton Simmons was brought in on a one year contract to improve the Minnesota Twins infield defense, and he has certainly succeed at that. Simmons has been credited with saving 2 runs in 200 innings at SS, which puts him on pace to finish the year with between 10-12. We know Simmons isn't a great hitter, but he doesn't need to be to have a positive impact on a game. Much like Byron Buxton of the past, who won games despite struggling mightily at the plate, Simmons is the best of the best at his position, and teams know that. Simmons contract is set to expire at the end of the season, and that makes him attractive to a potential buyer. The Twins could negotiate an extension, but I'm not sure I see that, especially with a loaded free agent class at the position. I'm almost certain that Simba will be moved before the July 30th trade deadline. 
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Potential Prospects: RH OF Tristen Lutz (3, AA), LHP Aaron Ashby (5, AAA), RH SS Eduardo Garcia (8, R)
 
3. RH SP Kenta Maeda
Kenta Maeda was one of the best starting pitchers in all of the MVP in the 60 game season, and looked like an absolute steal after being brought over for Brusadar Graterol in the 3-team trade which sent Mookie Betts to LA. However, Maeda has been roughed up in his first few starts in 2021, and doesn't look like the same pitcher we saw last season. The most notable difference between his great year last year, and the struggles this year is his control and command. We saw Maeda dissect lineups by throwing pitches exactly where the catcher was set up, and rarely leaving a hittable pitch over the plate. That has all turned on its head this year, and Kenta looks like the same version LA saw. Everyone knew regression was likely, but I don't think Kenta is this bad. Kenta is a top 3 arm on a playoff rotation, with potential to be higher. Kenta is signed for the next 2 years, but at only 3M per. This is a steal of a deal, and I see no reason for the Twins to sell low on King Kenta.
Prediction: Not Moved
 
2. RH SP Jose Berrios
Jose Berrios has been near the top of the Twins rotation for the past 3 years, and has been a top 50 starter every season. He hasn't taken the step from being TOR to an ace that many Twins fans hoped he would, but he's still very, very valuable. Berrios is set for his final year in arbitration following this season, which will likely see him making between 8-10 million. Again, this is a steal for the quality of pitcher Berrios is. We know the Twins have made an offer to extend Berrios contract in the past, but clearly that hasn't come to fruition. I suspect a Berrios extension to be somewhere in the ballpark of 100-110 million dollars over 4 years, which I would offer if I was the Twins. If an extension can't be worked out this offseason, and the Twins are in this same boat next year, it's likely Berrios would be moved at the deadline. However, I see no reason to sell on him now.
Prediction: Not Moved
 
1. RH CF Byron Buxton
The list rounds out with one of the most exciting players in baseball with Byron Buxton. We saw Byron take the MVP-level step forward through a month this season, but like years past, Buxton found himself on the injured list. I don't think you can fault Byron for being an often injured player, nor can you blame the Twins. It's simply part of the game. Some are prone, and some aren't. In a similar boat to Berrios, we know a contract extension has been offered to Buxton, but he felt it was too low. Sitting on top of baseball references leaderboard for WAR 35 games into the season, despite only playing in 24 games, certainly isn't going to make him any cheaper. I hesistate to speculate on what an extension for Buxton would look like, as he's likely a player who won't age well as he relies on both speed, and bat speed to be effective. He doesn't draw walks (nor should he, crushing pitches he can hit is better than trying to draw a walk), and he gets hurt a lot. I think the Twins would want an extension with multiple team options thrown in, and I'm not sure Buck would want that. However, it's a season too early to consider trading Byron.
Prediction: Not Moved
 
Recap
Below I have listed the players that I expect to be traded, as well as who the logical replacement is the rest of the way in what appears to be a "figure out what we have for the future" type of year, rather than a contend for the World Series year. All in all, I expect 7 trades to be made, at least based on these rankings. However, I would be fairly shocked if the Twins traded 7 MLB players off their roster. If I was setting the over/under on such a thing, I would set it at 4.5. 
Andrelton Simmons - Brewers (Nick Gordon)
Michael Pineda - Yankees (Randy Dobnak)
Tyler Duffey - Phillies (Edwar Colina)
Mitch Garver - Braves (Ryan Jeffers)
J.A. Happ - Brewers (Lewis Thorpe)
Hansel Robles - A's (Dakota Chalmers)
Alex Colome - Giants (Yennier Cano)
Note: All prospect rankings come from Fangraphs.
 

The 2021 Minnesota Twins have a very bad, beyond terrible, no-good bullpen. We all know that. Let's take a break from the 2021 Minnesota Twins Dumpsterfire Bullpen, and talk about something closely related, the Ryan Pressly trade. As part 1 in a series where we'll take a look back at trades "Falvine" made early in their tenure, and re-evaluate them, what's more fitting for right now than this deal that has an impact on Twins' bullpens of past, present, and future?
The Trade:
Houston Astros Receive: RP Ryan Pressly (MLB)
 
Minnesota Twins Receive: P Jorge Alcala (MiLB), OF Gilberto Celestino (MiLB)
 
Twins' fans weren't fans of this one at first, especially as Pressly went on to be dominant down the stretch in 2018 posting a 1.49 FIP in 23.1 IP after his arrival in Houston. In 2019 he followed that performance up with an All-Star appearance in a season worth 1.7 WAR. All this and Twins' fans had yet to see Celestino or Alcala in the Majors. So at this point some of y'all may be saying "So if we weren't fans of it at first, why would we be fans now?" The answer, Jorge Alcala. He had a 3.79 xFIP in 2020 and has followed it up with a 3.80 xFIP so far in 2021 (although he has had some home-run-itis lately, but that should regress to the mean according to xFIP). He has started to become a quality reliever, and has just barely hit a year of service time. 
 
Oh, and don't forget the Twins' number 8 prospect according to MLB.com, and Buxton's heir apparent, Gilberto Celestino. He's not going to be Buxton, but he does profile as an eventual starting center fielder. 
So let's break down exactly what each team got in terms of production.
 
Houston Astros:
--Ryan Pressly
          3.1 WAR paying $2,800,000 and eventually the right to overpay him by a LOT.
 
Minnesota Twins:
--Jorge Alcala
          0.5 WAR paying minimum MLB salary, and 5 more years of team control.
--Gilberto Celestino
          Nothing, yet. However he is the 8th best prospect the Twins have, which holds considerable value for the future
 
Hey, it all seems okay. A trade where the Twins probably got more value, but the Astros got a reliever that helped them hold on to leads given to them by trash cans, leading them deep into the playoffs. All parties involved come away happy, the makings of a wonderful trade.
 
All stats are thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, photo is thanks to MLB.com

The Twins play their 30th game this afternoon and are currently 11-18. They've been beset by bad luck, bad play and have taken a beating with two rule changes (extra-inning runner on second, 7-inning games for doubleheaders). How do they get out of this funk? I'm sure many in the organization will preach patience and they may be right, but that isn't any fun. Here are some possibilities for change that might help the team:
 
Role change. We've already seen one role change. At least temporarily Alexander Columé is not going to see high-leverage innings. Columé has been a huge disappointment and even when he has worked scoreless innings, he's been shaky. The problem is that taking Columé out of high leverage situations leaves the Twins with few good options, particularly when going 6 or more innings for a starter is a rarity. I think one pitching role change that should be made is to use Taylor Rogers in non-save high leverage situations as happened early in 2019 and sometimes use him for multiple innings. Rogers shouldn't be used in back-to-back days. Moving Alcala to high leverage situations seems to be gradually happening. If things continue to go bad, it makes sense to have him give a shot as a closer. Position players--it seems to me that both Polanco and Kepler should have their roles diminished from full-time regular to something different. Kepler can play a corner and center and Polanco has played short and second, maybe Max should be slotted as the fourth OF or at least platooned with Garlick. I think giving Polanco the role of three-position infielder wouldn't be a stretch. He could get some at-bats as a platoon partner for my choice of regular second baseman (Arraez) and left-handed at-bats in place of Simmons and when Donaldson takes a day off (or is injured).
 
Promotions/demotions. Assuming that Alex Kirilloff is in the big leagues to stay, when healthy the Twins have one extra position player and someone will have to be sent to the minor leagues or released. Discussion has centered on Jake Cave. Several others could be sent down and that doesn't begin to discuss the pitching staff. Many pitchers'performances could merit their demotion.
 
Trades. It is unlikely that anyone will make a significant trade this early in the year. However, the Twins would be a good candidate for a major trade nearer the trade deadline. They have some redundancy (left handed hitting corner outfielders) and holes that need patching (bullpen, perhaps catching) and many candidates to trade. They also have a lot of players who would be free agents after this season. I do wonder if someone who was considered a cornerstone (Polanco, Kepler, Sanó) could be traded. None of these guys have performed remotely well so far but an uptick could make them more marketable. I have to believe that the Twins will bring in new pitchers either in the bullpen or the rotation. What they have at this time in the bullpen just hasn't worked.
 
Personally, I think the Twins will need to do a little bit of everything to turn the corner. I am a proponent of changing roles. I think Kepler and Polanco could be candidates to have limited roles. The Twins need to add at least one strong arm in the bullpen, most likely by trade and Trevor Larnach is reputed to be nearly as much a sure thing as a hitter as Alex Kirilloff, plus he is a better outfielder. There is too much talent for the club to continue to play sub.400 baseball, but I think they need to make changes immediately.

Rich Hill Elbow Surgery Discussion
Heezy 1323
 
Happy Supposed-To-Be Opening Day everyone. Since the baseball season is (unfortunately) on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic, about the only recent baseball-related news to report has been that both Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard (in addition to Luis Severino earlier this spring) are in need of Tommy John surgery. I covered some information about Sale’s injury and some discussion regarding techniques used in UCL reconstruction in previous blog posts. In the comment section of the latter post, TD user wabene asked an astute question about Rich Hill’s surgery and how it is similar or different from typical UCL reconstruction. Hill’s surgery is indeed different from a typical Tommy John surgery, and I thought a post about it might be interesting to some readers.
 
As usual, my disclaimer: I am not an MLB team physician. I have not seen or examined Hill or reviewed his imaging studies. I am not speaking on behalf of the Twins or MLB. I am only planning to cover general information about this type of surgery and my take on what it might mean.
 
Twins Daily contributor Lucas Seehafer posted an excellent article about Hill’s surgery back in January that was a good look into the surgery basics and some background about UCL primary repair. There was some additional discussion in the comments as well. Since Lucas did such a nice job covering the surgery, I won’t go into excessive detail in this post, but I’ll give my version of the basics, and then cover how Hill’s surgery is similar and different.
 
Basics of UCL Primary Repair
 
As covered in my post about Sale, the UCL is a strong ligament at the inside of the elbow that resists the stretching forces that occur when trying to throw a baseball. Obviously, hurling a baseball 90+ mph can take a toll on this ligament and it can, in some cases, result in a tear. These tears can occur at the top (humeral) end, bottom (ulnar) end or in the middle (called midsubstance).
 


 
The figure above is from a study we did when I was in fellowship indicating the location of the ligament injury in 302 patients who had undergone surgery with Dr. Andrews. The most common areas of injury are at either end of the ligament, with the humeral end being slightly more common (at least in this series) than the ulnar end. These patients all underwent UCL reconstruction, which is the standard operation to treat these injuries when non-surgery treatments have failed to result in adequate improvement.
 
More recently (I would say within the past 5-7 years), there has been emerging interest in performing a different operation for a subset of these patients called UCL Primary Repair. This operation differs from UCL Reconstruction in that when the repair is chosen, the injured ligament is reattached back to the bone at the site of the injury using special anchors. There is typically also a strong stitch called an ‘internal brace’ that is passed across the joint along the path of the repaired UCL as well. I often refer to this internal brace as a ‘seat belt’ stitch. The idea behind the internal brace is that early in the healing process, before it has re-developed strong attachments to the bone, the ligament is susceptible to reinjury which could cause failure to heal (or compromised strength of healing). The internal brace (theoretically) helps protect the healing ligament and allows for development of a stronger attachment back to the bone. Once healing has occurred, the internal brace is thought to act like ‘rebar’, adding some strength to the ligament (though the exact magnitude of this contribution is unclear).
 


 
This figure illustrates the repair technique with the blue ‘internal brace’ also in place.
 
This is different from UCL reconstruction, where tissue from elsewhere in the body (typically either a forearm tendon called palmaris or a hamstring tendon called gracilis) is passed through bone tunnels and used to create a ‘new’ ligament.
 
One of the reasons for the interest in primary repair of the UCL has to do with the length of time needed for recovery from UCL reconstruction. As many of us know from having watched numerous pitchers undergo (and subsequently return from) Tommy John surgery, there is usually around 12-18 months needed for full return to pitching at the major league level. There are a number of reasons for this long time frame, but a major contributor is that this is the amount of time needed for the graft to fully heal. Recall, we are taking a tendon (which normally attaches muscle to bone) and putting it in the place of a ligament (which normally attaches one bone to another bone). Though tendons and ligaments are similar, there are differences in their microscopic structure. Over time, as the graft starts to heal and have new stresses placed on it (namely throwing), it begins to change its microscopic structure and actually becomes a ligament. In fact, there have been animal studies done that have shown that a biopsy of a sheep ACL graft (which was originally a tendon) over time evolves into what is nearly indistinguishable from a ligament. We call this process ‘ligamentization’, and it is probably the most important part of what allows the new ligament to withstand the stresses of throwing.
 
This process, however, takes time. And because of this, the recovery from UCL reconstruction is lengthy. With primary repair of the UCL, this process of conversion of the tendon to ligament is not necessary since we are repairing the patient’s own ligament back to its normal position. Some healing is still required; namely the healing of the detached ligament back to the bone where it tore away. But this process does not typically require the same amount of time as the ligamentization process.
 
So why, then, wouldn’t everyone who needed surgery for this injury just have a primary repair? In practice, there are a few issues that require consideration when choosing what surgery is most suitable for a particular athlete. The first brings us back to the first graph from this post regarding location of injury to the UCL. It turns out that asking an injured ligament to heal back to bone is a much different thing than asking a torn ligament to heal back to itself. Specifically, trying to heal a tear in the midsubstance of the UCL (which requires the two torn edges of the ligament to heal back together) results in a much less strong situation than a ligament healing to bone. That makes those injuries that involve the midsubstance of the UCL (about 12% in our study) not suitable for primary repair. It can only be realistically considered in those athletes who have an injury at one end of the ligament or the other.
 


 
In addition, there is significant consideration given to the overall condition of the ligament. One can imagine that repairing a nearly pristine ligament that has a single area of injury (one end pulled away from the bone) is a different situation than trying to successfully repair a ligament that has a poorer overall condition. Imagine looking at a piece of rope that is suspending a swing from a tree branch- if the rope is basically brand new, but for some reason breaks at its attachment to the swing, it seems logical that reattaching the rope to the swing securely is likely to result in a well-functioning swing with less cause for concern about repeat failure. Conversely, if you examine the rope in the same situation and notice that it is thin and frayed in a number of places, but just happened to fail at its attachment to the swing, you would be much less likely to try and repair the existing rope. More likely, you would go to the store and buy a new rope to reattach the swing (analogous to reconstruction). Similarly, when we are considering surgical options, we examine the overall health of the ligament on the MRI scan, and also during the surgery to determine whether repair is suitable or whether a reconstruction is needed. If there is a significant amount of damage to the UCL on MRI, primary repair may not be presented to the athlete as an option.
 
Also, consideration is given to the particulars of an athlete’s situation. For example, let’s say I see a high school junior pitcher who has injured his elbow during the spring season. Let’s also say that he wants to return to pitching for his senior year but has no interest in playing baseball competitively beyond high school. In this case, the athlete is trying to return relatively quickly (the next spring) and is not planning to place long term throwing stress on the UCL beyond the next season. If this athlete fails to improve without surgery (such that all agree a surgery is needed), and his MRI is favorable- he is a good candidate for UCL primary repair. This would hopefully allow him to return in a shorter time frame (6-9 months) for his senior season, which would not be possible if a reconstruction was performed. Indeed, this is the exact type of patient that first underwent this type of surgery by Dr. Jeff Dugas at American Sports Medicine Institute in Birmingham, AL. Dr. Dugas is a protégé of Dr. James Andrews and has been instrumental in pioneering the research behind UCL primary repair.
 
As you can probably imagine, the longer players (and pitchers in particular) play baseball, the more likely it is that there is an accumulation of damage to the UCL over time. This is the factor that most commonly eliminates the option of primary repair of the UCL in many of these players.
 
So how does any of this relate to Twins pitcher Rich Hill? Let’s discuss.
 
Hill underwent UCL reconstruction of his left elbow in 2011. He was able to successfully return from his surgery but has certainly faced his share of injury concerns since then (as described nicely in Lucas Seehafer’s article). This past season he began to have elbow pain once again and was placed on the 60-day IL as a result. He then underwent surgery on the elbow in October 2019 by Dr. Dugas (noted above). The procedure performed was a repair procedure, but in this case instead of repairing Hill’s own UCL, the repair was performed to reattach the previously placed UCL graft. I don’t have any first-hand knowledge of Hill’s surgery, but my best guess is that the technique was very similar to what was described above for a typical primary repair with internal brace. To my knowledge, this has not been attempted before in a major league pitcher.
 
There is data showing a relatively good return to play rate with primary repair that is very similar to UCL reconstruction. However, most UCL repair patients are much younger than Hill and the vast majority that have been studied to this point are not major league pitchers. There are a couple of ways you can interpret this data when it comes to Hill. One perspective is that he had a repair of a ‘ligament’ (his UCL graft) that was only 8 years old (since his TJ was done in 2011), and as such it likely doesn’t have as much cumulative damage as his UCL might otherwise have if he had not had any prior surgery. An opposing perspective would be that this is his second UCL operation, and even though his most recent surgery was not a reconstruction, the data that would be most applicable to him would be data regarding athletes who have undergone revision UCL reconstruction (meaning they have had a repeat TJ procedure after the UCL failed a second time). This data is less optimistic. Most studies would put the rate of return to play after normal UCL reconstruction around 85% (depending on exactly how you define successful return to play). In most studies, the rate of return to play after revision UCL reconstruction is much lower, around 60-70%. There are two MLB pitchers that I am aware of that have undergone primary repair of the UCL (Seth Maness and Jesse Hahn). Maness has yet to return to MLB and Hahn didn’t fare very well in 6 appearances in 2019.
 
Finally, my last input on this topic as it pertains to Hill is to imagine the specific position he is/was in. He is likely nearing the end of his career (he turned 40 in March 2020). He had a significant elbow injury that was not getting better without surgery. Presumably his choices were four:
1) Continue trying to rehab without surgery and see how it goes, understanding that the possibility exists that rehab may not be successful. (Perhaps a PRP injection could be tried)
2) Retire.
3) Undergo revision UCL reconstruction with its associated 12-18 month recovery timeline, likely putting him out for all of 2020 with a possible return in 2021 at age 41.
4) Undergo this relatively new primary repair procedure with the possibility of allowing him to return to play for part of the 2020 season, but with a much less known track record. In fact, a basically completely unknown track record for his specific situation.
 
If that doesn’t seem like a list filled with great options, it’s because it isn’t. If I’m being honest, I think Hill probably made the best choice (presuming that he still has a desire to play), even with the unknowns regarding his recovery. He obviously couldn’t have seen this virus pandemic coming, but that would seem to make the choice even better since he is not missing any games (because none are being played).
 
For Hill’s and the Twins sake, I hope his recovery goes smoothly and he is able to return and pitch at the high level he is used to. He sure seems like a warrior and is certainly the kind of person that is easy to root for. But based on what we know about his situation, there is an element of uncertainty. If I were Hill’s surgeon, I likely would have told him that he had around a 50-60% chance to return and pitch meaningful innings after this type of surgery. Let’s hope the coin falls his way, and also that we can figure out how to best handle this virus and get everyone back to their normal way of life as soon and safely as possible.
 
Thanks for reading. Be safe everyone. Feel free to leave any questions in the comment section.

UCL Reconstruction Surgery
Heezy1323
 
 
I recently posted a blog about Chris Sale and the news that he was set to undergo UCL reconstruction. That post covered some questions surrounding the diagnosis and decision-making that occurs when players/teams are faced with this dilemma. That post got a little lengthy, and I chose not to delve into the surgery itself, as I felt that may be better presented as a separate entry. My intention with this post is to discuss some of the different techniques that are used to perform UCL reconstruction. This does get fairly technical, and I apologize in advance if it is more than people would like to know.
 
First, we should revisit the anatomy. The ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) is a small but strong ligament on the medial (or inner) part of the elbow. It is around the size of a small paper clip. Ligaments (by definition) connect one bone to an adjacent bone. The UCL spans from the medial epicondyle of the humerus (the bump you can likely feel on the inside of your elbow) to the sublime tubercle of the ulna (one of the two forearm bones). (As an aside, sublime tubercle is one of my favorite terms in all of anatomy).
 




 
As with nearly any reconstructive surgery in orthopedics, our aim is to recreate the native/normal anatomy as closely as possible. In order to do this, most techniques utilize small tunnels that are drilled into the bone at the ligament attachment sites. The tissue that is used to reconstruct the ligament is then woven through these tunnels and tightened to create a secure new ‘ligament’ that heals and strengthens over time.
 
The primary differences between different techniques are the ‘approach’ (or how tissues are moved aside to see the damaged areas), the specifics of how the tunnels are made and used, the type of tissue (or graft) that is used to make the new ligament, and the way that the graft is secured in place. There are a number of variations that exist, but I’ll cover a few of the most commonly used methods.
 
First, some history may be in order. The first UCL reconstruction was, famously, performed on Tommy John. Tommy John was an outstanding pitcher for the LA Dodgers in the early 1970’s, and had compiled a 13-3 record in 1974 when he had a sudden injury to his elbow and was unable to throw. Imaging was performed, and the diagnosis of a UCL tear was made by pioneering orthopedic surgeon, Dr. Frank Jobe (of the famous Kerlan Jobe clinic in LA). Dr. Jobe had an idea to perform a reconstruction of the UCL, and practiced on several cadavers until he felt he had worked out a promising technique. He told Tommy that he thought he had a 1 in 100 chance of a successful return to MLB pitching. John decided to go ahead. The surgery was ultimately successful, and John returned to pitching in 1976. Though Tommy made it back, he did have a temporary palsy of his ulnar nerve after surgery, which is the ‘funny bone’ nerve that is near the UCL. This caused him significant weakness in his hand at first, but fortunately the strength returned over time and Tommy was able to return to pitching. Interestingly, he won more MLB games after surgery than he did before surgery, and pitched until 1989. There is a story that Jose Canseco hit a homer off John late in his career. Apparently Canseco’s father was Tommy’s dentist, and Tommy said something to the effect of “When your dentist’s kid starts hitting home runs off you, it’s time to retire.”
 
The technique used for this first surgery was termed the Jobe Technique (for obvious reasons). It involved removing the attachment of the muscles to the inner part of the elbow and pulling the muscles toward the wrist to get a good look at the UCL itself. Tunnels were drilled in the bone at the normal attachment sites of the ligament, and a small tendon from the forearm (called the palmaris) was used to weave through the tunnels making a ‘figure-8’ in order to make a new ligament. (The palmaris is a non-necessary tendon that is located in the forearm of about 2/3 of the population. For those patients who don’t have a palmaris, we usually use a hamstring tendon called the gracilis for this procedure.) The old ligament was left in place and sewed into the graft. The nerve was also moved from its normal location (behind the bump) to in front of the bump to take some of the tension off. This is called a ‘transposition’ of the ulnar nerve.
 


 
This technique was used for a while, but it did have some drawbacks, such as a high percentage of patients having ulnar nerve problems after surgery and some weakness resulting from detaching and reattaching the muscles of the forearm. Because of this, other surgeons sought new ways to perform this surgery.
 
One commonly used technique was termed the ASMI-modification of the Jobe Technique. ASMI stand for American Sports Medicine Institute (in Birmingham, AL) and this modification was initially described by Dr. James Andrews and colleagues. This involved similar bone tunnels, but the main difference was in the way that the muscles were treated. Rather than detaching the muscle and reattaching at the end of the surgery, in the ASMI technique the muscle was lifted up (and not detached) and the work was done underneath the muscle. The ulnar nerve is transposed when this technique is used (like the Jobe technique). The passing and fixation of the graft is essentially identical to the Jobe Technique as well.
 


 
Another commonly used technique is called the ‘docking method’. There are a couple of main differences between the docking method and ASMI method. First, the docking method utilizes a ‘muscle-splitting’ approach rather than a ‘muscle-lifting’ approach like the AMSI technique (see figure). This means that the muscle is divided between its fibers and a ‘window’ is created in the muscle in order to see the torn UCL and make the tunnels. There is also a difference in the way the tunnels are made. In the ASMI technique, the tunnels are the same size all the way through, and the graft tissue is passed all the way through the tunnels. In the docking technique, the tunnel on the ulna side is the same. But on the humeral side, the tunnels are sort-of half tunnels with smaller tunnels continuing on through the back side of the bone. This is because the graft is fixed in a different way- there are strong stitches that are attached to the ends of the graft that pull each end into the large tunnels. The stitches then pass through the small portion of the tunnels and are tied behind the bone, which secures the graft in place.
 


 
This technique does not require transposition of the ulnar nerve, which is an advantage because less handling of the nerve generally means less risk of trouble with the nerve after surgery.
 
There are a handful of other techniques that are slight variations on these themes, primarily using different devices such as anchors, interference screws or metal buttons to achieve graft fixation. There have been a number of cadaver biomechanical studies done that have compared methods, and they have been found to be largely equivalent. There seems to be a smaller incidence of ulnar nerve symptoms after surgery when the nerve is not handled/transposed (which makes some sense). The return to play rates are very similar regardless of which technique is used, with perhaps a slight favor to docking technique depending on the study.
 
I trained with Dr. Andrews, and performed nearly 100 UCL reconstruction cases during my fellowship using the ASMI technique. In my own practice, I tend to use the docking technique most commonly. I do this because I would prefer not to transpose the nerve if I don’t have to in order to decrease the likelihood of nerve problems after surgery. We also saw some problems with fracture of the bone near the humeral tunnels when using the ASMI technique, and using the docking technique allows us to make smaller tunnels. This makes fracture in this area less likely. That said, Dr. Andrews has had (and continues to have) tremendous success using this technique. As we have learned more about this type of surgery, it has become clear that it is important that the bone tunnels be made very accurately, as improperly placed tunnels seem to be a risk factor for inability to return to full participation. There has also been some investigation as to whether addition of PRP or other biologics to the reconstruction area at the time of surgery makes a difference in healing speed or strength. At this time, I am not aware that any research has shown a difference.
 
If anyone has managed to make it this far without falling asleep, I hope you found this discussion interesting. Feel free to leave a comment below if you have additional questions. Thanks for reading. Safe wishes to you and your families.

Felix Hernandez RP 34 - Doesn't want to share crown with Aquatennial Queen of the Lakes
Josh Donaldson 3B 34 - Loons kinda freak him out
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 36 - No longer very good at baseball
Dallas Keuchel SP 32 - Concerned that North Stars fans still aren't over it
Edwin Encarnacion DH 37 - Weather too cold for imaginary parrot
Alex Gordon CF 36 - Retro baby blue uniforms clash just a little with all his Royal blue gear
Hyun-Jin Ryu SP 33 - Airport not close enough to the west coast
Ryan Zimmerman 1B - Feels like anyone who has been through Zimmerman, MN might not like him right off the bat
Russell Martin C 37 - Has heard a catcher is more likely to be concussed here
Wei-Yin Chen RP 35 - 6.59 ERA in 2019
Rich Hill SP 40 - He's 40
Ben Zobrist 2B 39 - He's 39
Martin Prado 3B 36 - Keeps alpacas in Texas
Mark Trumbo DH 34 - Isn't Nelson Cruz
Marcell Ozuna LF 29 - Sees how Rosario is treated
Nick Castellanos RF - Unbalanced schedule - doesn't want to have to go back to Detroit that much
Yasiel Puig RF 29 - Keeps fainting goats in 49 other states
Alex Wood SP 29 - Insufficient quantities of chiropractors
Trevor Cahill RP 32 - We've got a shot here
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Tommy Hunter RP 34 - Insists on being called Tommy, Lord of the North, and that just doesn't fly
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Kole Calhoun RF 32 - Doesn't want to change his name to Kole Bde Maka Ska
Ivan Nova SP 33 - Longs to reunite with Pittsburgh
Starlin Castro 2B 30 - Likely to sign him and cash in when in gets to 2000 hits
Juan Nicasio RP 33 - Doesn't realize how many good restaurants we have
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Jason Castro C 33 - Number of lakes is fine, but would like less fish
Pat Neshek RP 39 - Homecoming is possible
Andrew Cashner RP 33 - Friend of a friend has heard Minnesota "smells a little"
Jason Vargas SP 37 - Too many Jasons already here
C.C. Sabathia SP 39 - Too many C.C.s already here
Cesar Hernandez 2B 30 - Would never live up to Cesar Tovar's precedent
Jonathan Schoop 2B 28 - Never heard of him
Welington Castillo C 33 - Minnesotans would latch on to the "Beef" nickname too much
Dellin Betances RP 32 - Keeps ostriches in New York
Anthony Swarzak RP 34 - Homecoming is possible
Drew Smyly SP 31 - Look at all these free agents left
Derek Holland RP 33 - I honestly didn't think this bit would be this long
Mitch Moreland 1B 34 - Mitch Moreland? More like Mitch Lessland, huh?
Julio Teheran SP 29 - If he's not good enough for Atlanta
Fernando Rodney RP 43 - If he's still throwing, homecoming is possible
Jordy Mercer SS 33 - Is he related to Bobby Mercer?
Billy Hamilton CF 29 - Is he still fast?
Taijuan Walker SP 27 - Let's give it a try, Taijuan.
Sam Dyson RP 32 - I think this bit is over
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C.J. Cron 1B 30 - Definitely over
Eric Thames RF 33 -
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Steven Pearce 1B 37
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Kevin Pillar CF 31
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Tyson Ross SP 33
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Wilmer Flores 2B 28
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Jon Jay RF 35
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Brian Duensing RP 37
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Addison Russell SS 26
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Tyler Austin 1B 28 EDIT: I'm removing Tyler Austin from the list because dex8425 said he signed with a team in Japan, that it was a pretty good deal for Tyler Austin actually, and that dex8425 is taking any and all wagers that Tyler Austin will rake. Also, I read on mlbtraderumors or on a Doogie tweet that Tyler Austin's girlfriend preferred being near an airport in Japan, so we never had a shot anyway.
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Alcides Escobar SS 33
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Brad Boxberger RP 32
Hector Sanchez C 30

The Twins went into this offseason looking for impact pitching. They'd had a phenomenal offensive season, hitting 307 home runs, but their pitching wasn't so awesome. They were also entering the offseason with a rotation that consisted of Jose Berrios. They quickly extended a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi, and he accepted. Then, they resigned Michael Pineda to a 2 year contract. Fans said that the rotation looked "too much like last year" but I didn't think about that. I would think about how they really needed two more pitchers. You can't have a rotation that consists of three people, and especially not 2 people for the first 39 games of the season. (Of course, we did know that they would use Randy Dobnak, or Devin Smeltzer, or Lewis Thorpe in this spot.) So finally, on Tuesday, they signed Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. (ha ha, a pitcher named Homer?) When I was reading Twitter comments on their posts about signing them, a lot of them said things like this is a great signing-from Indians fans and I thought you wanted to keep up with the White Sox. One of the worst things about this signing is that Hill is injured until JUNE! So, in addition to Dobnak, Smeltzer, or Thorpe being used in Pineda's spot, they're going to need one of them to fill Hill's spot. (Now is the part where you should be saying "Oh, God, this was a really bad signing") I will give you the even worse part of it: Hill will be 40 the next time he comes to pitch. Nelson Cruz will also be 40 next season, but he's a designated hitter, not a pitcher! (Now you say "Why the heck did they do this?") And, both their contracts are for only 1 year, so when the Twins enter next offseason, they'll practically be back at square one with Odorizzi also set to enter free agency. Could they have made a worse signing?
 
Also here's a secret: Homer Bailey looks terrifying and old and like he needs to smile more.

For the first time in a long time the Minnesota Twins are entering the offseason in a prime position to sign top of the market starting pitchers. While Twins fans are (understandably) fantasizing about the prospect of signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg, I’m here to discuss another free agent starting pitcher who I believe would be more likely to come to Minnesota, would cost significantly less, and could be the next Justin Verlander...Madison Bumgarner.
 
When looking at the peripheral career trajectories of Bumgarner and Verlander, the similarities between the two are undeniable - starting pitchers in their 30s who debuted at a young age and are both multi-year all stars with playoff experience. Verlander was 34 years old with 12 years of big league experience when he was traded to the Astros while MadBum is 30 years old with 10 years of big league experience as he enters free agency. The Verlander acquisition obviously worked out wondrously for the Astros, so in this article I’ll be digging deeper into the careers of these two pitchers to find out if there could be some Verlander-type upside with the Twins signing Madison Bumgarner this offseason.
 


 
Years 1-10
 
The first thing I wanted to look at when comparing these two star pitchers was where Verlander was at in his career through his first ten full seasons in the MLB, as Bumgarner just finished his tenth full season. If these numbers showed that Verlander was a drastically better pitcher than Bumgarner, then this whole exercise would be moot, but as you can see in the chart above, this is not the case. The numbers actually show that through their first 10 full seasons, Bumgarner has been the better pitcher, according to ERA, FIP and K/9. That this is the case allows us to further dig into this comparison and see if we can continue to project Verlander’s career arc onto Bumgarner.
 


 
Years 8-10
 
The next thing that we should look at when comparing Verlander and Bumgarner was their performance in years 8-10 of their careers. At the time of the trade deadline when Twins fans were discussing the prospect of trading for MadBum, the criticism that I heard from many was that Bumgarner is no longer the pitcher that he used to be and that he has now settled into a new phase of his career. While Bumgarner has experienced a dip in his numbers the past three years, the drop is smaller than what most folks made it out to be, and is a very similar drop to Verlander’s in his years 8-10.
 


 
Years 11-14
 
Since the past stats for Verlander and Bumgarner that we analyzed seem to follow a similar trajectory, it’s worth giving a look at how Verlander performed in his years 11-14 to get an idea of what the next three years of Bumgarner could look like if everything breaks right, like they did with Justin. As you can see above, Verlander improved in every way in years 11-14 of his career, dropping his ERA a full run and raising his K/9 a full three strikeouts from the previous three seasons.
 
What changed for Verlander to cause his numbers to improve so much, so late in his career? Changing teams.
 
Half way through 2017, Verlander was traded to the Houston Astros, an organization that values numbers and analytics and has shown time and time again it’s ability to work with pitchers and get the very most out of their talent. The new regime of the Twins front office has acted in a very similar way, putting a huge priority into analytics and talent development. While the sample size with Wes Johnson as pitching coach has only been one season, I definitely think it’s reasonable to assume that Johnson could have an impact on Bumgarner similar to the impact that Houston’s organization and pitching coach, Brent Strom, had on Verlander.
 
Justin Verlander is a future hall-of-fame pitcher that the Astros acquired in spite of him having some down years through the middle of his career. They saw his track record and believed that they could get him back to the Cy Young pitcher that he once was. I truly believe that the Minnesota Twins could do a similar job in using their player development and infrastructure to turn Madison Bumgarner back into a star and earn him another World Series MVP honor. This time in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

I wondered how the New York Press would describe game 2 - here are some key quotes - and I cannot disagree with any of them:
 
"Dobnak’s short outing was fairly predictable. A recent Uber driver against this lineup? Rather optimistic of the Twins. The last Twins rookie to start a game in the postseason was Brian Duensing at Yankee Stadium in 2009. Duensing gave up five runs in four and two-thirds innings and his father was hit by a car outside the stadium (he was O.K.)."
 
"The Yankees did not homer off Dobnak, but they wore him down with hard-hit singles and doubles. Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli hooked Dobnak after the Yankees loaded the bases with no outs in the third inning and turned to Tyler Duffey, a reliable reliever during the regular season. But Duffey was no better against the Yankees’ buzz-saw of a lineup, which began to pile on the runs."
 
"The best-of-five series will shift to Minneapolis on Monday, with the Yankees one win away from clinching a berth in the A.L. Championship Series. And if the Twins cannot neutralize even the Yankees’ struggling hitters, they have little hope of extending their postseason."
 
If you wonder what they wrote after game one - "Yankees fans, spoiled by 27 World Series trophies, might be frustrated by their team’s decade-long drought without adding another title. But consider the plight of Minnesota Twins fans when they learned of their team’s first-round postseason opponent.
The Twins, who last won a World Series in 1991, have been eliminated in five of their six previous recent playoff appearances — in 2003, ’04, ’09, ’10 and ’17 — by the Yankees. In 15 postseason games between the two teams before this year, the Twins had won only twice — the first games of the American League division series in 2003 and 2004."
 
"Interspersed between the blasts and runs, the dawdling game, which lasted 4 hours 15 minutes, featured 11 total relievers as both managers tried to navigate through the other’s potent lineup."
 
I have nothing to add - let's just start by ending this losing streak! A moral victory is at least a victory.

I could not resist putting up this Home Run Derby between Harmon Killebrew and Rocky Colavito. In this contest the two who had tied for the HR championship of the AL faced off.
 
It is preceded by Harmon taking the crown from Mickey Mantle -
 
And followed by a contest Harmon lost to Ken Boyer - a third baseman who belongs in the
Ken did not last long - his next challenge was Hank Aaron who took over the program.  
It is so amazing to see these greats playing for $2000 - chump change today.
 
It is also fun to see Harmon, pre-Twins days in his Senator's uniform.
 
These are great players without the science of today. I love watching them.
 
Nostalgia - enjoy.

In part two of this series we will be looking at the 2010 MLB draft. This series is about looking at how the Twins did in the draft during the past decade, not a wine piece. We will see positives and negatives in the Twins’ draft prowess. Another intention of this piece is to simply show how hard it is to draft and develop MLB players.
 
With the 21st pick in the 2010 draft the Minnesota Twins selected RHP Alex Wimmers out of the Ohio State University. Wimmer never lived up to expectations that can largely be blamed on injury that greatly affected his development. In 2010 Wimmers was diagnosed with UCL issues but at the time the team and doctors, along with Wimmers seemed to think he could heal the ligament with rest and rehabilitation so he elected to not have Tommy John Surgery. After almost two years of this he finally had Tommy John and was never able to live up to the expectations that come with being a first round pick. Wimmers did end up making it to the majors with the Twins but did not do well. As of now he does not have a pitching gig and last pitched for the Marlins’ AAA affiliate in 2018. Wimmers’ career numbers are as follows:1-3 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.662 WHIP. His WAR ended up being 0.2 in his 24.2 innings that span 22 games. Wimmers caught on with the Marlins organization in 2018 but only played four games with their AAA affiliate before being released.
 
The five picks that came after the Twins were:
22. TEX: Kellin Deglan, HS Catcher
23. MIA: Christian Yelich, HS First baseman
24. SF: Gary Brown, Cal State-Fullerton CF
25. STL: Zack Cox, Arkansas Third Baseman
26. COL: Kyle Parker, Clemson Outfielder
 
Kellin Deglan
While we think that most of these guys have probably already become whatever they are going to be, Deglan is the one guy in this group that might still have a chance, but it’s doubtful. We know that catchers take a little longer to develop than most other positions but Deglan has not shown any spectacular skills in the minors such as a guy like Mitch Garver did. Deglan is a career .223 hitter in the minor leagues. He spent a little time in the Australian Baseball League before coming back to the organization that drafted him in the Texas Rangers. The Rangers ended up letting him go and he has been splitting time between the AA and AAA affiliates of the New York Yankees ever since. If Deglan is ever able to make it to the show, it will be his good but not great defense that will earn him the call.
 
Christian Yelich
Just like in 2009, the Twins missed out a future MVP. Of course we don’t know if Yelich would have developed the same way with the Twins as he did with the Marlins but his career 29.4 WAR would look awfully good in the middle of this current Twins lineup. Drafted as a first baseman, Yelich has found a home in the outfield with two National League clubs in the Marlins and was traded to the Brewers for four prospects in the winter of 2018 and went on to win the NL MVP the ensuing season. In an absolutely loaded draft, Yelich may be the best but is certainly in the top five of all of the player drafted in 2010 in a draft that included, among others; Bryce Harper (1), Jameson Taillon (2), Manny Machado (3), Yasmani Grandal (12), Chris Sale (13), and a few other MLB stars. Before you get mad about the selection, just remember that this is a highly difficult process and 21 other teams also missed on this guy.
 
Gary Brown
Brown spent only six seasons in professional baseball, playing in seven career MLB games and checking in at a 0.1 career WAR. Brown got off to an amazing start to his professional career, he was the 2011 California Player of the Year in his first full professional season and was largely considered the Giants center fielder of the future. He had 53 stolen bases that season and was quickly shooting up the prospect lists. He never sustained any major injuries during his MiLB career but never came close to repeating his performance in A+ that got everyone excited in 2011. He shuddered through four more minor league seasons and got a chance with the Giants as a September call-up in 2014 where he got into seven games, went 3-7, and was then sent into DNF hell the following offseason. He got a chance with both the LAA and STL but was not able to do much with either of their AAA affiliates and faded out of the Independent league a year later. Brown would later blame the hype he received after his first full year’s success as the reason he stopped getting better, he stopped making adjustments because he already felt he was good enough. For more on that here is a very interesting article about Brown, https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/gary-brown-never-recovered-field-2015-dfa-hurt-me-my-core .
 
Zack Cox
Early on Cox looked like the steal of this draft, ranking as Baseball America’s #62 prospect in the preseason of 2011 and #88 in 2012. Cox played well early on in his MiLB career but was later limited by injuries and then started to move around the league. He was traded to the Marlins for Edward Mujica at the deadline in 2012. After that he was drafted in the 2015 Rule 5 draft by the Nationals and then released in April 2016. He was signed by the Tigers in 2017 but elected free agency after not playing much and has not resurfaced in the MiLB since. In between his time with the Nationals and Tigers organization he did play fairly well for the Wichita Wingnuts of the International League but has since left baseball and was unable to ever make it to the “Bigs.”
 
Kyle Parker
Besides Yelich, nobody on this list has played more MLB games than Parker with 64. Unfortunately for him in the Rockies that equates to a -1.6 WAR. Parker got a chance but was never able to live up to expectations of the first round pick, just like four of the other five guys on this list. He went 24-132 in his career and was released following spring training in 2016. He signed a minor league deal with the Reds that April and played with their AAA team but was released in June of the same year. Parker does have an interesting story apart from his failed MLB career, he spent three years at Clemson University where he played both football and Baseball. He was Clemson’s starting QB for two seasons before leaving when he was drafted after his third college season by the Rockies. In his NCAA football career he went 15-12 with 4,739 passing yards and 32 touchdowns in two years as a starter.
 
Overall the 2010 MLB draft gave us a lot of great ball players, this group gave us one. This group would look like a complete bust if not for Christian Yelich. This again shows us how hard it is to draft baseball players. In the next edition of this draft we will look at the Twins’ first pick in the 2011 MLB draft, Levi Michael and the players that followed him.

This week Gypsy Queen hits the market as the latest baseball offering from Topps. While it’s not a product that should be expected to produce massive hits, there’s plenty of excitement coming out of these boxes. Continuing with a consistent theme, the throwback to tobacco cards is present, but it’s also supplemented with a good deal of popping color. Available at both hobby and retail stores, there’s a few different avenues to rip into this product.
 
If you want to go the route of guaranteed hits, expect to drop something near $100 on a hobby box. For the more budget conscious collector blaster boxes and gravity feeds will be present at local Target or Walmart’s. Getting your hands on the product shouldn’t be tough but knowing what you’ll want to look for from a Twins perspective is where we’re really focused here.
 
Base Set
 
Featuring a 300-card base set, the Minnesota Twins have 11 cards to account for. You’ll see many of the regular suspects, with nice appearances by Addison Reed, C.J. Cron, and Tyler Austin. Rookie cards include Jake Cave as well as fan favorite Willians Astudillo. There’s also a few short prints and variation subsets, and while Minnesota is not represented in all of them, both Eddie Rosario and Jose Berrios show up in the 20 card Player’s Weekend variation checklist.
 
Inserts
 
Gypsy Queen doesn’t do a ton of insert subsets, with just four in total. No Twins are featured on the Tarot of the Diamond, Power Performer Portrait, or Fortune Teller cards. Going away from the Glassworks oversized box topper cards of previous years, the product introduces a 100 card Chrome checklist for 2019. Minnesota lands three players (Rosario, Berrios, and Max Kepler) in this set, with an autograph version for former great Torii Hunter.
 
Hits
 
With booklets, unique relics, and on-card autographs, Gypsy Queen truly has some great hits to offer. From a traditional autograph standpoint, it’s Rosario and Hunter that appear on the checklist for Minnesota. This makes another product Topps has Torii in for 2019, and it appears he’ll be a key focus for the year ahead. The auto/patch booklet set has Berrios showing up with 20 cards and a 1/1. Both Rosario and Byron Buxton have auto/relic cards in the Bases Around the League checklist, and those cards are both serial numbered to 20. With the already mentioned Hunter chrome auto rounding out the group, that wraps up the 22-card offering for Twins fans.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In Part one we covered to injuries that had a massive affect on this era of Twins teams. I didn't even get into the concussions that derailed both Morneau's and Mauers careers.
 
In Part 2 we will cover what I consider personnel decisions that range from bad to ridiculous to borderline criminal. The first one I want to cover is the one I alluded to when discussing Jason Kubel's injury. Kubel was a very solid outfielder before the injury, even playing some centerfield. His range after the injury was greatly reduced.
In looking for better production in LF the Twins made a bad trade after the 2007 season. The Twins sent Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay for Delmon Young and Brendon Harris. Delmon was famously the number 1 overall pick in 2003 and was considered the top prospect in baseball for several seasons. In his first full season he had slashed .290/.336/.405 with 21 doubles and 12 homers in roughly 3 quarters of a season. He finished 2nd in the ROY voting. Delmon would go on to have 1 really good and 2 below average season for the Twins while playing horrendous defense in LF. He would be traded during the 2011 season. Harris would have 2 nondescript seasons for the Twins. Garza and Bartlet would go to Tampa Bay and were huge reasons why the Rays went to the World Series in 2008. Before being traded Bartlet had hit .309/.367/.393 and .265/.339/.361 in his previous 2 seasons for the Twins. He had 3 seasons of team control left and was only 27 at the time the trade. Bartlet would hit .286/.329/.361 and .320/.389/.490 for the Rays in the next 2 seasons while garnering MVP votes in 2008 and making the All Star team in 2009. Garza was 24 at the time of the trade and entering his 1st full season 5 seasons of team control remaining. Garza had been solid for the Twins when called up during 2008 season with an ERA+ of 117 and an FIP of 4.17. He definitely showed promise. Over the next 4 season from 2008 to 2011 for the Rays and then the Cubs after being traded he would average 200 innings per year and had ERA+ of 119, 110, 100 and 118. He was absolutely the type of above average innings eater that the Twins craved during these years. To add a little salt to the wound Garza was traded for Chris Archer among others when he was sent to the Cubs after the 2010 season.
 
The next decision is still hard for me to think about. David Ortiz was non tendered after the 2002 season. We all know what Big Papa went on to a HOF career for the Red Sox leading them to 3 World Series titles. This is not a case of 20/20 rear view vision. The release of Ortiz made no sense at the time. He had struggled to stay healthy at times, wasn't in the greatest shape and clashed with TK. But there was no reason to non tender him. In his final year for the Twins Ortiz had hit .272/.339/.500 with 32 doubles and 20 homers. His OPS was .839 and OPS+ was 120. He was just 26 years old. He was one of the few Twins that showed plus power. It isn't like the Twins had some huge prospect they needed to make room for. Mathew LeCroy received most of the DH at bats in 2003. He had a respectable .832 OPS. But it doesn't mean there wasn't at least room for a platoon with Ortiz batting against righties and LeCroy vs lefties. The Twins would struggle to get production from the DH position for the next decade while Ortiz was crushing for the Red Sox. The Twins trotted out luminaries as Jose Offerman, Rondell White and Jason Tyner as designate hitters during this time. In 2006 while White was putting up a .641 OPS, Ortiz was hitting 54 homers and knocking in 137 RBI. Instead of non tendering Ortiz you should have been signing him to an extension.
 
The 2006 batting order could have been Luis Castillo 2B, .358 OBP. Jason Bartlett SS .367 OBP, Joe Mauer C .936 OPS .429 OBP, David Ortiz 1.049 OPS 54 HR, Justin Morneau 1B .936 OPS 34 HR, Torii Hunter .826 OPS 31 HR, Jason Kubel LF .800 OPS 25 HR (Projected) Michael Cuddyer .867 OPS 24 HR, Nick Punto 3B .352 OBP
 
Lack of reasonable extensions and filling the bottom parts of the roster. Terry Ryan hated spending the Pohlads money. I truly believe he did this because he looked it as badge of honor that the Twins could compete with a budget that often times was less than half of the big boys. I liked this fact too. I'm not advocating doubling the payroll during this period, But a well placed additional 10 to 15 million dollars per season could have done wonders. Ryan was very leery to go past 4 years for contacts even for his best players. Santana, Hunter, Mauer and Morneau all signed similar 4 year deals that contained no options. Meanwhile the rest of the industry was signing guys to 6 and sometimes even longer deals. If Santana had been offered a 6 year deal at market value there is a strong chance he would have taken it. This would have you allowed to have him for 2 to 3 more years of his prime. Same for Torii Hunter. You would have had Mauer signed thru 2012 originally and not been forced to sign him to a monster extension after his incredible 2009 season. I know small market teams cannot afford to get stuck in long expensive contracts but all 4 of these guys were young when they signed there 1st big contracts but already had proven track records of excellent production. They were all worth the risk of longer extensions. A longer contract can have good and bad risks. Sometimes the market grows so quickly that a contract is outdated by the time it is up. Sometimes it turns out like Mike Hampton. In the case of Mauer, the Twins could actually have saved millions of dollars by signing him to a longer more expensive extension the 1st time. By the time Mauer would have been a free agent after say a 6 year contract he would have already moved to first base. His next contract would have paled in comparison to the 8 year deal he signed in 2009. Longer contracts would have allowed the Twins to keep Santana's and Hunter's services farther into their primes.
 
It was always frustrating to see the Twins fill out the rosters with the fillers all making near the league minimum or signing hope and a prayer types. Too many rejects like the cast covered earlier that played DH, plus all the middle infielders, relief pitchers and 5th starters that they brought in. If they would have sent just a little money on a few free agents they could have extended the quality of their lineup, bullpen and/or rotation.
 
With better decision making and injury luck I really believe this era of Twins could have been a dynasty that won multiple championships. The top end talent was just so good. In Santana, Nathan, Mauer, Morneau and Hunter they had 5 of the best 20 players in baseball all in their prime at the same time. With better decisions and luck you could have added Kubel, Liriano and Ortiz to that list. No team in baseball could have matched a group of high end talent like that. A lineup that boasts Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, Ortiz, Cuddyer and Kubel reads like an all star game. This would have been the best lineup in the majors even if you had Seth playing SS, Arron at 3B and Nick at 2nd. A rotation led by Santana and Liriano would have been favored in any series against any opponent during the playoffs in this time. The rest of the rotation spots would have been filled by pitchers such as Brad Radke, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carlos Silva and Nick Blackburn during different years.
 
Just imagine all the 10 year, 20 year and 25 year anniversaries we could celebrate for championships in 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2010. Oh what could have been.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
---------
 
12/13/1988: The MLB transactions for the Minnesota Twins had one line: The Twins signed free agent catcher Brian Harper to an one year contract worth $90,000. The Twins were the sixth franchise for Harper who was drafted by the California Angels in the 4th round of the 1977 MLB June Amateur Draft, traded to the Pirates and then the Cardinals who released him on April Fool's 1986, and then signed and released by the Tigers and A's in single year assignments.
 
Harper was an intriguing guy. He hit .353/.403/.653 as a 28 year old in AAA Portland before the Twins brought him up to finish the season with the big club, hitting .295/.344/.428 with 10 walks and 12 strikeouts in 184 plate appearances. Harper became the Twins starting catcher in 1989 and held that post until 1993. His tenure with the Twins included an otherworldly .381/.435/.476 slash line in 26 World Series plate appearances in 1991, the best World Series ever.
 
Fast forward about 30 years: November 25, 2017: The Twins sign 26 year old Willians Astrudillo as a minor league free agent. After a stint in AAA, like Harper, Astrudillo made it to the bigs, where there were a lot of accolades, regarding his low walking and strikeout percentage, and about his lack of being a "three outcome guy". Astudillo's line last season ended up being .355/.371/.516 with a 2.1 BB% and a 3.1 K%. In 1991 Brian Harper ended the season with a 3.0 BB % and a 4.7 K%. Both were about his career average for the Twins.
 
After 1993 strike Harper moved on and ended up his career with a .295/.329/.419 major league line with a 3.9 BB% and a 5.6 K%. Both Harper and Astudillo have had questions about their defensive ability, and like Astudillo Harper had to play other positions (OF, 1B and 3B) before he was established.
 
Harper was an integral part of the Twins 1991 team. Might be the time to let Astudillo be the "Harp" for these Twins...

I'm a five-minute walk away from the east-west commuter train that also stops at Fenway Park. So with Game 1 of the World Series being held at Fenway, Tuesday night, despite not being a diehard Red Sox fan and despite the forecast of iffy weather I felt like I'd be a fool not to take advantage of the logistics.
 
The title for this blog entry is deceptive because I didn't actually "attend" the game. I didn't have tickets, and of course no way was I going to pay scalper prices. But I thought I'd enjoy the atmosphere outside the ballpark. It's like Wrigley, and maybe a few others, with thriving neighborhoods that are worth enjoying even when the home team isn't playing.
 
I decided to arrive early, in part because I wasn't sure whether the train might already be packed with fans from further out, if I left nearer to game time. My train wasn't too bad, but they only come once an hour, and who knows what the next one was like. So, at 5:15 I arrived at Yawkey station (still so-named even though nearby Yawkey Way has been renamed back to Jersey Street).
 

 
David Ortiz Drive is a short block leading to Brookline Avenue which is one of the bordering streets for the ballpark. It has uniform-number monuments to some of their greats. Here you see the ones for Boggs and Ortiz, and to the left you can see the obscured number for Pedro (45).
 

 
My general plan was to wander around, until game time (8:10 or so), and then take the next train back home assuming things had quieted down outside the park. I was prepared to stay later, if some kind of awesomeness broke out. The area was already busy with people milling around. Cars were double-parked in several places, apparently with official blessing, and the parking lots were advertising a pretty consistent $60 fee. The commuter rail station had a sign stating that the last train of the night would be held until 1:00 am, more than an hour later than its normal schedule; since the game lasted until about midnight, that wasn't really overkill.
 
I took a long way around, heading south on Brookline and then heading back up on Van Ness.
 

 
Boston isn't really laid out on a grid and you can get disoriented pretty easily, but I've learned my way around Fenway by now. I reached the intersection with Jersey Street where several street vendors are set up and some of the entry gates to the ballpark are. That part of Jersey Street is actually part of the team's venue - the metal detectors and turnstiles are outdoors and the street is just a ballpark concourse on game day - which is why I couldn't use Jersey as part of my circuit.
 

 

 
I kept walking, to Ipswich Street and then Landsdowne Street. It all was pretty busy - here is Landsdowne at its junction with Brookline, basically the end of my circuit. All the bars or restaurants I would have considered trying had huge lines of people waiting to get in, to little surprise.
 

 
Security was everywhere you looked. Dogs sniffed the trunks of cars entering the parking lot within Fenway Park itself, SWAT team humvees were stationed in various places, heavy city trucks were eventually parked to block key intersections, and of course you were never out of sight of police officers (uniformed and I'm sure plainclothes).
 

 

 

 
There also was the expected swarm of media vehicles.
 

 
I mentioned not being willing to pay scalper's prices, but actually I don't think I had an opportunity. There were plenty of scalpers, but they were always asking if I had tickets to sell, not if I wanted to buy. I think I had seen $400 for standing room tickets, on StubHub. Whatever few tickets changed hands on the street at game time were apparently already spoken for. I saw a couple of people who seemed more normal and less scuzzy than the typical scalper, with signs begging for cheap tickets because they were diehard Sox fans or whatever, but I have little doubt that they would have immediately forgotten their loyalty to the team and would have turned a quick profit had someone been suckered in by their pleas.
 
It wasn't raining when I arrived, but around sundown there started to be drizzle, and pretty soon it rained hard and there was significant lightning a mile or two away. I had brought an umbrella and was walking in light hiking boots, but those who had decided to rely on their hooded jackets decided to cram into the already crowded bars and restaurants, or else (if they had tickets) make their way into the ballpark, because the streets were suddenly pretty sparse of pedestrians. I walked the perimeter of the ballpark again. For some reason I never get tired of photographing the Citgo sign.
 

 
Somewhere along the perimeter, I spotted a window into which you could see a makeshift Media Room.
 

 
Even aside from the rain, I have to say that the atmosphere somewhat disappointed me. I guess I was expecting something like a big block party. There was one guy playing makeshift drums on the bridge over I-90, and a couple of times I heard a "Let's Go Red Sox" chant or similar commotion from people lined up to get inside the park, but that's just like a normal game day. A couple of locations on my circuit had a very strong odor of weed, I think maybe from the broadcast media enclave behind a chain link fence within the Fenway Park premises. I believe the Mayor and the Police Commisioner had let it be known that no nonsense was going to be brooked, and maybe that accounts for what I saw on the streets. Certainly, I wasn't hoping for hooliganism, especially with the presence of a smattering of Dodger Blue jerseys and hats, and I'm not sure exactly what I was hoping for, but this was altogether too normal. So buttoned-down. I opted to cut my evening slightly short and take a train that departed shortly before first pitch.
 
Still, I'm glad I went. After sundown, the Prudential Building had their lights on to urge on the Sox to victory, and I think any baseball fan would have felt some excitement, Sox fan or not. Game 1 of the World Series, baby!
 

 

 

The Twins have ridden the roller coaster during the Paul Molitor era. Up in 2015, way down in 2016, a peek at the playoffs in 2017 and now way down in 2018. The roller coaster claimed a front-office victim in longtime GM Terry Ryan two years ago and now there has to be some heat on field manager Molitor after this season's extreme disappointment.
 
The complaints about the old regime included being too "old school", including pitch-to-contact staffs, not using advanced metrics, cookie cutter approaches to hitting, and of course, not spending enough to bring in and keep talent. Fair complaints all, I think. However, in the Levine/Falvey era, we see little real progress and a real lack of talent in the upper minors. This year's crop of September call-ups is among the most uninspiring in recent memory.
 
I believe there are two keys to being competitive and sustaining that competitiveness for a number of years. The first is pitching. Levine and Falvey are supposed to be pitching guys. They have acquired pitching, but with mixed results at best. Their best talent at the top levels of the farm system doesn't have many, if any, outstanding talents. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi didn't move the needle much for the big club this year. Perhaps they have suffered from some bad luck and just need to add quality until it sticks and stays. All I can say is this, the Twins rank in the bottom third of almost every meaningful pitching stat. You don't win year after year with far below average pitching.
 
The other component which is missing in my opinion is defense. For the last two years, the Twins have gone with a primary shortstop who is well below average defensively, couple that with a revolving door in center field this year, the trading of the regular second baseman and the season-ending injury to primary catcher Jason Castro, and you have a toxic mess turning outs into outs. Further, and if there is one complaint about Molitor that sticks, it is this. The team has been woeful at executing fundamental baseball. I'm talking about throwing to the proper base, making needless throws, failing to hit cutoff men and the like. Add in that opposing baserunners are taking extra bases like free gifts and this is tough to watch.
 
I think the front office needs to commit to pitching and defense in a big way this offseason. That would include making every effort to keep their most gifted defender (Byron Buxton) in Minnesota and on the field as much as possible. Secondly, I think the Twins need a defensive-minded shortstop, with the idea that Jorge Polanco can move to what I think is his natural position, second base. On the pitching front, more and better arms to augment the so-so rotation (I think Gibson/Berrios/Odorizzi is fine for #2-4) and a questionable bullpen. I like May/Hildenberger/Rogers, but more is needed included a closer.
 
The Twins have been in the baseball wilderness long enough. They need to have a solid plan for improvement, stick with it and stay relevant not for an occasional year, but consistently. I think the long suffering fan base deserves it.

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It’s no secret this year hasn’t gone as planned for the Minnesota Twins.
 
It’s also no secret that the Twins — who look drastically different than they did even a week ago — will see significant turnover this offseason on the roster.
 
Not only were traded players Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn and Zach Duke slated to become free agents in the offseason, but so too are Joe Mauer and possibly also Ervin Santana. The upshot here is that the Twins, who had a franchise-high $128.7 million payroll to start the season according to Cot’s Contracts, have just $31.7 million hard committed to next year’s team.
 
Here’s the breakdown of those commitments:

$8.375 million to Addison Reed
$8 million to Michael Pineda and Jason Castro
$1.25 million in possible buyouts to Fernando Rodney and Logan Morrison
$5.95 million in dead money owed to Phil Hughes

 
Now that number will obviously jump with guys like Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman and Trevor May eligible for arbitration again as well as first-timers Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, and there’ll be guys making the MLB minimum that’ll factor in as well, but the overarching theme is that the Twins are going to have some money to work with.
 
It’s also coming at a truly great time; this is going to be one of the best free-agent markets in recent memory. Superstars available include Manny Machado and Bryce Harper but there are also players across a number of other spectrums that will improve whichever team they sign with.
 
Clayton Kershaw and David Price can opt out of their deals — though both have had their issues in recent years — and Josh Donaldson also still carries some name value. All three could be big targets for most of the league if they hit the open market. Charlie Morton, Nelson Cruz and Jed Lowrie are having great seasons in their mid-30s, and could make for good bridge guys for teams waiting on prospects.
 
Marwin Gonzalez is a Swiss Army Knife who can hit a bit, Elvis Andrus can opt out of his deal and there are lots of players who’ll be looking for short deals to bounce back, like Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Lucroy, Neil Walker and even Lynn, Morrison and Dozier as well.
 
Nobody would argue that it would be terrific to see the Twins land Harper or Machado. But at the cost of $30 million plus per year on what’ll likely be a deal with an opt-out in a few years — extremely player friendly, a la Jason Heyward — the odds just aren’t in favor of this happening.
 
That’s before considering if that player would come to Minnesota — even if the Twins were the highest bidder.
It’s also worth noting that both players would chew up a large part of the financial flexibility the team would likely wish to have as some of its youngsters move into their more expensive seasons. Not only that, but it’s not like the Twins really have an outfield spot or a lack of depth at shortstop in the years to come.
 
Don’t mistake that for someone saying “CAN’T SIGN MACHADO BECAUSE ROYCE LEWIS IS A-COMIN’” or anything to that effect, but it certainly is a consideration.
 
But that’s why I’m coming out and endorsing the following like a politician endorsing a colleague:
 
The Minnesota Twins should make Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal their No. 1 free agency target — with a bullet — this offseason.

Where are they now is not about old and retired, but the players on current rosters who at one time were on the Twins Roster. Just curious how they are succeeding and if we wish we had any of them back. Here are the hitters with their stats after the Solstice:
 
I chose BA, OPS, and WAR for the comparative stats:
 
Aaron Hicks, Yankees, 251 BA, 811OPS, 1.7 WAR
Danny Valencia, Orioles 290, 822, 1.2
Wilson Ramos, Tampa Bay, 296, 796, 1.5
Carlos Gomez, Tampa Bay, 197, 609, -0.5
John Hicks, Detroit, 279, 759, 0.4
Niko Goodrum, Detroit, 244, 786, 1.1
Denard Span, Mariners, 292, 784, 0.3
Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays, 245, 714, -0.2
Danny Santana, Braves, 667, 1.750, 0.1 (yes sss)
Kurt Suzuki, Braves, 279, 821, 1.4
Pedro Florimon, Phillies, 263, 814, 0.5
Chris Giminez, Cubs, 130, 353, -0.1
John Ryan Murphy, Diamondbacks, 239, 769, 0.7
 
Do you want any of them back? Collective WAR - 8.1
 
Teams that chose to have an ex-Twin pitching did not do as well. I have made my list simple, W - L, ERA.
 
Jaimie Garcia, Blue Jays, 2 – 6, 8.16 ERA
Blaine Boyer, Royals 2 – 9, 11.76
Liam Hendricks, A’s 0 – 0, 4.50
Bartolo Colon, Texas, 4 – 4, 4.91
Annibel Sanchez, Reds, 3 – 3 2.55
Brian Kintzler, Nationals, 1 -2, 13 holds, 4.45
Randy Rosario, Cubs, 3 – 0, 1.76
Brian Duensing, Cubs, 1 – 3, 4.50
Anthony Swarkzak, Mets, 0 – 1, 3.48
Phil Hughes, Padres, 0 – 0, 6.23
 
The only surprise is how well Rosario is doing. The Twins gave him a too young, too short try, and then DFA's him. The Cubs saw something they liked. Would you trade Belisle to get him?
 
Who would you have back? And if you can trade one for one, who would he replace?

Listening to Seattle series there was Chris Hermann catcher for seattle. His only game, 1 - 4. So then I got wondering about other Twins catchers or prospects since we are worried about our catching futures.
 
Now I might have missed some, but his is what I found and if you look at the overall quality there is only one true star catcher on the list.

Wilson Ramos – hitting 310 with 6HR for Tampa Bay
Kurt Suzuki – 264 – 6HR - Atlanta
Mitch Garver – 220 2HR – Twins
Drew Butera – 181 – 1 HR – KC
John Ryan Murphy – 246 – 5 HR – AZ
Jason Castro – 143 – 1 HR – MN
Bobby Wilson – 143 – 1 HR – MN
Chris Herman – Seattle – 1 game.

 
I am still trying to figure out why everyone was so glad to get rid of Suzuki. Oh yeah - framing.
 
Well, however you measure things we have a pretty low success rate in catching.

When this season was in its infancy, I had a lot of high expectations for the 2018 Cedar Rapids Kernels. I was not alone, of course, since the Kernels’ opening day roster was filled with big-bonus position players, highlighted by 2017’s first-overall draft pick, Royce Lewis, and the Twins’ 2016 first round pick, Alex Kirilloff.
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Royce Lewis (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
Unlike some, though, I was freely effusive with my high expectations. I told more than one person that I felt the 2018 roster had the potential to be every bit as good as, if not better than, the Kernels’ class of 2013 that included Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and a number of other very talented position players.
 
With Cedar Rapids sitting in fiftth place in the Midwest League’s Western Division last week, one of the people who had heard me express my early season optimism approached me during what was turning out to be a lopsided loss to Quad Cities and, in so many words, asked me, “what happened?”
 
It’s a fair question and I think I may have even surprised myself with my answer. I said I still believe what I said at the outset about this roster is true. There’s a lot of talent on the Cedar Rapids roster.
 
Like their big-league parent club, the Kernels have been treading water at or near the .500 mark. On the surface, that would seem inconsistent with having something I would have referred to (and did refer to) as a “loaded roster” to start the season.
 
Having two first round picks should be enough to keep just about any Class A roster at or above the .500 mark and that’s pretty much what Lewis and Kirilloff have done. After Wednesday’s win over Kane County, the Kernels’ record stands at 21 wins and 20 losses, good enough for fourth place in their Division, a game and a half behind Clinton, Peoria and Quad Cities, who are in a virtual three-way tie for the Division lead with about a month left in the season’s first half.
 
Under MWL rules, the top two teams in each division at the end of the first half of the season automatically qualify for the postseason, so the Kernels have just over four w
eeks to pass at least two of the teams ahead of them in the standings to clinch one of those automatic playoff spots.
 
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Alex Kirilloff (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
With Kirilloff and Lewis both hitting above .300, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to hear that one or both is being promoted to the Ft. Myers Miracle at any time. If and when those promotions occur, the Kernels’ chances of qualifying for the postseason would obviously take a serious hit.
 
The two first-rounders have accounted for a disproportionate amount of Cedar Rapids’ offense. If you remove their hits and at-bats from the club’s totals, the Kernels would have a .231 team batting average, which would be just two points above the Great Lakes Loons, who currently rank 16th among the 16 MWL members in team batting average.
 
Seven of the 12 current position players on the roster have batting averages below .234 and seven have an OPS below .700. Two players are hitting below .200 and have an OPS below .500.
 
So why would I remain bullish about the 2018 Kernels?
 
One of the by-products of having a roster of position players that have gotten off to a slow start is that not too many of them are going to be promoted to the next level any time soon. Outside of Kirilloff and Lewis, it’s hard to identify anyone among the current position players that one could honestly say has earned himself a shot at the next level.
 
And most of these guys are still very young.
 
Lewis is still 18 for a couple more weeks and Kirilloff is just 20, but they aren’t the only hitters still unable to legally buy a beer around here.
 
Catcher Ben Rortvedt and outfielder Jean Carlos Arias are each just 20 years old while infielder Jose Miranda and outfielder Akil Baddoo (recently placed on the Disabled List) are just 19. Newly arrived outfielder Jacob Pearson is also still 19, though just until his June 1 birthday.
 
Trey Cabbage, David Banuelos and Shane Carrier come in right at 21 years old.
 
Among the club’s position players, only Andrew Bechtold (22), Ben Rodriguez (23) and Jordan Gore (23) would likely be considered above the average age for this league.
 
And here’s the thing about MiLB leagues that split their seasons into two halves – often the teams that finish the season the strongest are those that have young talent that start slow enough that they don’t get promoted, leading to less than average turnover in their ranks. Those players often develop into a competitive unit by the end of the summer.
 
The Twins have a lot of bonus money tied up in this unit of position players and it would seem unlikely that they would release or demote a 19 or 20 year old ballplayer that they’ve invested heavily in just because he’s gotten off to a slow start in Cedar Rapids.
 
A year ago, the Twins sent 23 different position players to Cedar Rapids during the course of the season. Thus far, among the team's hitters, only the 12 current position players plus Akil Baddoo (now on the Disabled List) and previously promoted outfielder Mark Contreras have suited up for Cedar Rapids.
 
It’s not difficult for me to envision a scenario where, even should Lewis and Kirilloff get their promotions, the rest of the current group of position players is largely left intact to develop together through most of the rest of the season.
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Jordan Gore (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
Yes, it would have been a bonus to have Wander Javier in line to replace a promoted Lewis, but his season-ending labrum surgery means that won’t be happening. (Javier will still just be 20 years old when he likely makes his Kernels debut in 2019.)
 
Players that demonstrate they’re ready for new challenges get promoted. That’s what minor league ball is all about. Fans in Cedar Rapids have had a rare opportunity to watch two of the most promising young prospects in the Twins’ system play for the Kernels this spring and those players have certainly not disappointed. The result is that one or both could be promoted to the next level at any time.
 
While the rest of the everyday lineup have not been as productive with the bat as Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff so far, several of them have been picking up the offensive pace.
 
Jordan Gore has hit .371 in his last 10 games, Jean Carlos Arias his hit .324 over his most recent 10, Jose Miranda has hit .294 over the same stretch, while Akil Baddoo, Ben Rortvedt and Trey Cabbage have each hit .250 or better in their last 10 games for Cedar Rapids.
 
The “new guy,” Jacob Pearson, even had a pair of hits in his first game as a Kernel on Wednesday.
 
Minor league baseball is what it is, and that means players will come and go. But this group of Kernels hitters is not just a two-man unit. The lineup has offensive talent up and down the batting order and I think we’ll continue to see plenty of runs scored by the home team at Veterans Memorial Stadium this summer.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)