whydidnt

The lack of consequences isn't the point. The point is that many people tend to overvalue the potential loss and undervalue the potential gain. In other words they aren't looking at the potential end results from a fair perspective. Their judgement is clouded because they worry more about losing something than gaining something. It's not a character flaw, it's just part of the human make-up. It's been scientifically proven that people do this all the time. I think how Ryan runs the Twins in general reflects this bias.

I think Terry Ryan, and some of the posters here tend to have "Loss Aversion Bias": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion This is where people prefer to avoid losses rather than attempt to make a gain. Ryan is pretty risk-adverse, and pulling the trigger on a deal for Tulowitzki was frought with potential losses. It's pretty easy to just focus on the potential downside and not consider the potential benefit. Water under the bridge at this point, but for me, if you have a chance to acquire one of the top players at his position without giving up one of your cornerstone building blocks, I'd do it every time. I prefer to look at what may be gained rather than what I'm losing. I'm weird that way, I guess.

I think that some are seriously undervaluing Reyes at this point. Yes, he's got a poor contract, and is in the decline phase of his career. But he is still one of the better shortstops in the league and has value. He's not like Nolasco, who basically has produced negative value since signing. Guys like this still have value and his contract isn't an albatross - he's only got 2 more years at $22M guaranteed. (Sounds funny to say it that way) so he won't hamstring a team that is trying to win now long term. Yes, not an overwhelming return for Tulo, but I wonder if the Rockies have a 2nd deal on the burner to bring back something else for Reyes. Hard to compare until we see, but the Twins don't really have anyone similar to Reyes that they could/would have included.

Not sure if this was directed to my post, but...I meant to indicated that Kazmir would have been the Twins best P. As for the Astros - not sure if I'd rather have him of Keuchel. But that's a nice 1-2 for any team with playoff aspirations.

I think Terry Ryan is probably too risk-adverse to pull off anything major to improve the team this year. I don't think the lack of activity means he doesn't think they have a chance, just that he tends to overvalue the guys he has, particularly at the minor league level, which is where we should be trading from. I would have loved to see him pull off a deal for Kazmir, similar to the one the Astro's got. Yes, Nottingham may turn into an All-Star C, but that is a slim chance. Kazmir instantly becomes the teams best pitcher. If Ryan was GM of the Astros would he have pulled the trigger. I doubt it, which is why all this talk of dealing at the deadline typically leads to nothing. Did Ryan even have the Twins in the discussion with the A's, or was he content with the "six" SP we have today? Put it this way, over the last 4 years the Twins should have been obvious sellers at the deadline. How often did they sell? I think this year, we'll see the opposite, being obvious buyers, but not buying anything of value. That's just who Ryan is, much more afraid of making the wrong decision than concerned about making the team better. AND I don't advocate for ripping the farm system apart. However, there is enough depth there now to make some meaningful deals without significantly damaging our future.

Well, based upon the last 4 years, I'm not too worried about the Twins budget. They have proven over and over again that just because they have money to spend, doesn't mean they will. I think the question is better put: Would you rather have Tulowitizki for the next 5 years or see the Twins keep Gibson and the Pohlad's receive $75M more in profit. For me, I'm going with the better player. When/if the Twins actually run into a true budget problem, I'll worry about that then.

Wow, I'm really surprised by how many here seem to prefer Gibson to a true Star SS like Tulowitzki. Gibson is the very definition of a mediocre SP. His career K/9 is less than 6, BB/K is under 2. These aren't the numbers of a guy you can't deal. He's been better this year, unless you look at his FIP, and then see it's actually higher than last year. Teams win by having better players than their opponents. A guy like Tulowitzki gives the Twins a better SS for the next 4 years, then most teams they face. Keeping Gibson does not necessarily do that that for the Pitchers. Until you see/hear what the total package to land Tulo is, it's hard to really judge, but I for one can't comprehend how a guy like Gibson is going to be the line in the sand for a player of Tulowitzki's pedigree.

I don't think there is any reason to worry about promoting Buxton to AAA. Elite prospects tend to skip AAA or are sent there after not quite cutting it in the majors, and that's what I would expect the Twins to do as well. It's really only been a month of good ball at AA, and as much as I want the Twins to be aggressive, I think we need to see at least another 30-45 days of high performance at this level before thinking of moving him to the majors. Considering the time he missed last year, and how rusty/overmatched he looked in Spring Training, it's right for the Twins to let him force their hand, not the other way around.

The apt comparison is to Trout in 2011. When the Angels called him up in July, 2011, he had about 1/2 season of AA under his belt, which is where Buxton will be then. FWIW, Trout wasn't really very good that first time up in the majors. They sent him down after a couple of weeks, and then recalled him later in the year. He was okay then, but not really a difference maker. I think it would be realistic that is about the best we could hope for out of Buxton this year. Of course, just his glove alone in CF might be a huge boost, but really I think the Twins are smart to let the entire body of work develop as much as possible, without hampering it by holding him back when the time comes.

I think it's far too easy to be blinded by short term results. After the 1st week of the year, everyone was convinced the Twins were going to lose 100 games. Now, they have a great week and people are talking playoffs. I don't think either scenario fits with how this team is currently built. I think it's pretty easy to look at the Twins results the last couple of years, compare those rosters to the current team and see how this team is pretty comparable. I just don't see enough different to convince myself that by the end of the year they are going to finish with a markedly different record. They'll have some hot streaks and some cold streaks, but in the end are going to end up around 90 losses. The only possible reason things might be different is the change in managers. Gardenhire's teams seemed to really tank in the 2nd half if things weren't going well. I suspect Molitor will have a different outlook on things.

Players outside of true Superstars don't get fans in the seats. Winning does. One more reason you don't spend $10M on an over the hill OF with questionable defensive skills because you like his "leadership". People aren't going to pay to see Torii Hunter and never have.

I've been a big fan of Arcia, to this point. However, he seems to be stagnating or regressing. I don't see the improvement I expected out of a young player now in his 3rd season with the big club. Not sure what the issue is, but he just doesn't look like he's improving. He does need to improve, and until Sano gets here, the Twins really need his potential power. They don't really have anyone else on the roster that fills that need.

Whether they were coming up at 22 or 23 misses the point. Meyer has over 200 quality IP between AA - AAA, he led the league in Ks last year. Something not many top prospects get a chance to do, since they are usually promoted. He is 24, going on 25 years old and has little left to prove in the minors. Gibson pitched well at AAA to start 2013, but was "blocked" by several mediocre arms. Think if he could have learned to adjust at the major league level that year - perhaps last year would have been a better season for him. May dominated at AAA last year, he has nothing left to prove there, and after adjusting to the majors showed enough to get a shot this year. If they were blocked by Koufax, J.Santana, Blyleven, Kaat and Morris I understand why they haven't been promoted, but they have been blocked by a bunch of junk. The Twins are slow rolling these guys. I agree that we haven't had enough talent to see if this is part of their philosophy, but you aren't going to convince me that they are holding these guys back for some unknown reason.

You make a very good point. There haven't been enough "good" guys in the system to draw firm conclusions. However the last 3 guys - Gibson, May and Meyer, that have done pretty well have definitely been more slowly promoted than is typical for most other teams, that's all we have to go on, but it is a small sample size. My frustration is that these guys have done pretty well in the minors but are being blocked by guys that aren't very good and don't have much upside.

I tend to agree with this, but did you notice in that list of players, only 1 out of 6 is a pitcher, and really there is no guaranty he doesn't get held back until he's "more consistent". It does seem that the Twins are pretty slow at moving pitchers through the system, even college guys, like Meyer who lead AAA in K's are held back. Meanwhile the White Sox move Sale, Reed and Rodon up within months of being drafted and they all excel. Not saying there isn't a gap in talent between these guys, just a huge difference in philosophy on how to teach these guys how to pitch.

Actually, I never said the handling of May and Meyer was the sole reason that I thought the FO was failing. I simply used them as another example of potential failure. And your stance feels a lot like mine - in convincing some folks here that the front office can do no wrong, and since they are baseball professionals they must be right, and I must be wrong. We'll have to agree to disagree on this, but I don't think it's a false binary to say that the Twins have been bad for several years, yet continue to manage their roster in the same manner, somehow wishing for different results. In my mind that means they are doing a poor job and are unwilling to change in an effort to improve. We hear Terry Ryan say that things are going to change, but then we see the same old roster decisions. At what point should they try something different? Do they have to lose 90+ games a dozen years in a row? Really what line has to be crossed?

What's false about it? The proof is in the results, and this team has had lousy results for 4 straight years. What recent moves has the current front office made that shows they are up to the task of putting together a winning major league team? Where are all those diamonds in the rough Ryan is supposed to find. Where are all those unknown minor league players we got for an aging veteran at he trade deadline? In the last 3 years, what besides signing Phil Hugh's has the FO done that has turned out to be a big positive for the team. These are things you should consider before rushing to defend moves like this?

Blaine Boyer has 8 years of major league experience as a reliever with an ERA of 4.63. I think that speaks more for his true ability than 4 weeks of sping training. Really, what is the point of having him on our major league roster at this point? Because he "battles" and is a good guy? If he's truly better than our younger options then our future is much worse than most of us hope. I would debate you that this is the best team too, it's certainly has the most mediocre veterans though.

It would only be valid if the guys they used instead of Gibson, etc. actually consistently produced, which they haven't. All the Twins are doing is trading inconsistent, terrible, performance from a veteran in place of the chance that a guy like Gibson or Meyer, or whoever, might not be consistent. Most young players need to play at the major league level for a while to adjust and become consistent, the Twins seem intent on delaying that forever.

Really, you think Blaine Boyer is a better pick then Tonkin or Burdi for this teams bull pen? Both Meyer and May have a history of success at both AA and AAA, and are mature by prospect standards, we nee to see Tommy Milone or Mike Pelfry instead of these guys. Aaron Hicks, despite all his troubles, hit's lefties pretty well, why do we send him to AAA and keep Robinson at the Major League level to presumably play against lefties. You would hope teams would make the decision to go with players that have a low upside, but a known floor when they are contending or close to it. When you have been lousy for 4 straight seasons and have guys that have produced at the minor league level, it might be time to give some of the high upside guys a shot. I'm not talking about blowing up the team, like Houston did, I'm talking about not signing mediocre 30 year olds with no upside to block players that have done well at the higher level of the minors. The Twins are either a poor judge of talent, as evidenced by trading established players for May and Meyer or they are awful at developing players since they don't have confidence to promote them over guys with no upside. Which is it?

Whether you agree with the final decisions or not, I think the fact that these discussions are happening points to a problem of roster management. When you have been very bad for 4 straight years, and much of the fan base is hoping a highly rated, and hyped, farm system is going to be the cure, why do continue to fill your roster with Robinson, Pelfrey, Milone, Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer, etc. These are not guys that are going to lead any team to contention or even respecability. Heck they ADDED or resigned 1/2 these guys in the off-season, they actively went looking for mediocre players that would in all likelihood block young guys, who need to learn some at the major league level. Either that or the young guys aren't very good to begin with AND we really don't have any hope for the future. It just seems the FO doesn't have a plan, they just grab whoever is willing to sign for a couple million and throw them out there.

I guess I don't see it this way. All of those guys are younger players, and younger players tend to get better, rather than worse. Kluber was really good down the stretch in 2013 as well, I think he's the real deal. Not sure they are outliers or not, but even if they regress, most of those guys you mentioned would be one, if not THE Twins best player. If Brantley regresses to .280 - 15 HR, 25 SB, he's still better than any Twins OF. If Kluber's ERA rises by 1/2 run, he's still better than our best, Abreu could lose 10 HR's and still lead the Twins in HRs, while hitting .300 The one I think is that a lot of people don't realize how much worse than everyone else the Twins have been the last few seasons. Sure they may improve, but not enough to really make a huge difference in the standings. Their starting pitching is bound to be better, but just being better doesn't guaranty more wins, if the other guys still are better than yours.

Keep in mind that the rest of the teams in the division have also been trying to improve as well. I think it's very realistic to think the Twins offense will be average this year, combine that with below average pitching, despite adding Santana and you end up with a 5th year of bad teams. While the Vegas line of 68.5 seems low - Vegas has been pretty accurate AND high on the Twins over the last three years: Year Vegas Actual 2012 73 66 2013 67.5 66 2014 71.5 70 It's safe to surmise that most everyone, including the odds makers, thought the Twins would bounce back somewhat from the unexpected disaster of 2011, but they have been pretty spot on the last couple of years. If I look at the division, I really am not optimistic that the Twins can finish ahead of any of the other teams. The White Sox addressed several needs, the Tigers still have Price, Verlander & Sanchez atop their rotation and added Cespedes to replace Hunter in decent lineup. The Indians have the Cy Young winner and a solid lineup, and the Royals will miss Shields, but are the defending AL Champs. I think the expectations are about right barring a surprise early impact from guys like Sano, Buxton, Meyer and or Rosario I don't think they will be much better than last year. Judging by the Twins handling of Meyer and May, I just don't think any of these guys are going to get much of a chance to have an impact this year.

I enjoyed both parts of this article, thank's for posting it. The one thing that is almost impossible to do when writing a retrospective such as this measuring the things not done, since we don't know what we don't know. I am one of those that thinks one of Ryan's biggest weaknesses is NOT making moves that need to be made. I really felt like some of those early 2000 teams could really have had a shot at winning the World Series if only Ryan had been willing to make a deal or two to bring in another player. At that point it seemed as we were more worried about keeping a prospect like J.D. Durbin than potentially winning a World Series. We will never know what options he had back then, though. I think in his most recent stint as GM we have seen some of the same, with aversion to signing higher end Free Agents, particularly pitchers until the last couple of years, and even then only targeting the middle of the group. These types of things can't be measured, by WAR, so it's left to conjecture by Arm-Chair GM's such as myself!

In 2014, 13 teams had bullpens with a team ERA of 3.33 or less. Almost have the teams had a combined ERA out of the pen at 3.33, so yes, there a lot of teams that have staffs loaded with sub 3.3 ERA guys. I agree that Fien and Stauffer would have roles on other teams, not sure about Duensing, but since he's a lefty, he'd probably have a situational one. Where I disagree is that I don't think too many teams would be looking at those 3 as their top high leverage guys behind the closer. Fien perhaps in a setup role, but neither Stauffer or Duensing has the track record to suggest they are a good late inning fit. My point isn't that the world will end because of Stauffer's signing, rather it doesn't seem to fill any real need the Twins have right now, and could potentially block needed development of younger players for very little marginal gain.