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whydidnt

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Everything posted by whydidnt

  1. whydidnt
    Biggest reason for me is the Twins have underestimated the impact of making it cost prohibitive for a huge group of baseball fans to watch their games on TV. Out of site, out of mind for me. I used to pickup a game or 2 per week and then watch some of almost every game. That increased my interest in the team, and I'd go to 7-10 games a year. Other reasons - MPLS crime. You can tell me all you want that it's not an issue, but the fact remains one is far more likely to be the target of violent crime in Minneapolis than any other location in the state. - Total cost of attendance. Yes cheap tickets are available, but those are for seats with really poor view of the field. Parking is expensive, Concessions are stupidly overpriced - $12.00 for a beer? Sure they have some cheap leftovers for sale at a stand in left field, but how about you just provide a fair price everywhere, instead of gouging your customers, just because you can. End of the day, the Twins are entertainment, we all have a fixed amount that we can spend on entertainment, and right now they aren't providing enough of a value for the product they are offering, at least for me (and seemingly many others in the area)
  2. whydidnt
    I agree that is probably what's happening, but for me the biggest issue is that half the guys on this list are already 24 or 25 and haven't really sniffed the big leagues yet. They are already past peak prime for prospects, so best case is likely a back of the rotation starter anyway. The Twins have been lacking in front of the rotation starters for so long now, I fear we've all just come to accep that the best we can do is a few 3 or 4s, including the FO.
  3. whydidnt
    At this point, I think both the Twins and Dozier are right to wait to see what happens. I think it’s unlikely Dozier will get the kind of deal Blackmon gets. But that depends upon what happens with the Yankees and Red Sox this year. For Dozier to get that kind of money, one of the big spenders is going have to have a need at 2B. If Torres doesn’t turn in the player the Yankees are expecting, or if Pedroia can’t fully recover, then those two teams may decide it’s worth it to take the plunge. Otherwise, Dozier only has to look at the current 2B of the Yankees, and see what his value was this off-season. Dozier is a better player than Walker, but NOT $90 Million dollars better. We only have to look at the 2016-17 off-season to see how little other teams valued his skill-set, as the best offer the Twins could get was a decent Minor League pitching prospect. This was coming off an all-star season, too. Nothing happened in 2017 to change his value, in my opinion, a bad half of baseball, followed, by a great half. But he is now 2 years older AND doesn’t have a reasonable contract for 2 years. Who is going to give him $100M over 5 years? I just don’t see teams with money and a huge need at 2B, but that’s what it will take.
  4. whydidnt
    Yep run differential isn't always great at identifying a teams current record (the wins in the bank still count). But, it is a useful predictor of future records. The thing that strikes me isn't just that this years Twins are negative, but by how far negative they are. Just seems like we are really going to be rowing upstream the rest of the season.
  5. whydidnt
    Well, these are the Twins last 10 2nd round picks: Rotvedt, Burdi, Eades, Melatokis, Chargois, Boer, Goodrum, Bullock, Landendorf, Rams. Based upon that track record, I'm ok giving up a 2nd round pick for a guy who is actually a major league pitcher, with an actual track record. The jury is still out on a few of these recent guys, but they are mostly washed out or injured at this point.
  6. whydidnt
    Yes, this seems like a decent deal. Ynoa has upside, but is a long way away, and isn't excelling. Garcia is better than what we had, which probably isn't saying a lot, but he's an established back end of the rotation guy. I'd much rather see him on the mound than Colon, Gibson or Santiago.
  7. whydidnt
    Thanks for the research. Of course none of those teams was even close to the Twins current -61 differential. Only one was even more than -20, the 05 Padres at -42. So, I don't really think any of them has a differential even in the neighborhood of where the 2017 Twins sit at this point. The Twins will have to outscore their opponents by 40 runs the rest of the way to get to the mean of those teams. That would be an awesome turn around though!
  8. whydidnt
    However, the counter argument is that good teams don't give up 6+ runs a game, or get beat by a large margin on a frequent basis. You are correct that a loss is a loss regardless of the margin, but run differential remains as as one of the tools you can use to help determine if a team's record is supported by the play on the field, and how good the team is. When's the last time a world series team had a run differential similar to what the Twins have this year? (I don't know, so it's a legitimate question I should try to research!)
  9. whydidnt
    Well then, if it was that easy, I wish the Twins had made that deal. I wonder why they didn't? Is there any doubt they need pitching help?
  10. whydidnt
    Seattle just traded 4 prospects, including their #6 (per mlb.com) for David Phelps. Phelps is a 7th-8th inning guy the Twins could use, but that price seems pretty high. This year's trade market has been all over the place. The Yankees got Robertson, Frazier and Kahnle for 1 legit top prospect and two mid level guys. If the price for Phelps sets the market, the Twins need to sit this one out. If the White Sox take is more realistic, I'm in. One more reason I don't understand the decision not to bring in legit relief arms this off-season.
  11. whydidnt
    This weekend is a great example of how important pitching is. It's hard to get excited at the plate when you are down 5-0 in the 2nd inning. You'd like to think that shouldn't matter, but these guys are human too. Great to see the team win and take 1st place over, but I remain skeptical about the season long outlook. I still don't think they have the arms to really compete. Hope I'm wrong though.
  12. whydidnt
    Could you provide some detail on why you feel this way? Lack of command, not enough variety in pitches, etc. Just curious.
  13. whydidnt
    I agree with this sentiment. However the new management appears to have been sitting on their hands all off-season. This would be a lot easier if we haven't been hearing the "be patient" line for the last 6 years. It's hard not to think the new management is pretty much the same as the old. The roster is constructed the same as it has been. I'm sure there are changes under the cover, but it would be nice if they threw us a bone here or there.
  14. whydidnt
    I agree Sano and Buxton will improve. I think the IF defense, especially the left side is going to be worse. Dozier will likely hit fewer than 40 HRs. The OF defense is improved, but ONLY if Buxton stays healthy and that is quite a big if. If he's hurt, the OF defense is just as bad as last year. It doesn't seem possible, but the pitching could be just as bad, particluarly the bullpen. What if Kintzler doesn't perform as well, he's no sure thing? They have no-one else that you could trust in the 9th inning do they? I'm sticking with 65 until I see something more tangible than they'll just improve because it can't be any worse.
  15. whydidnt
    I guess I count Duffy and Tonkin young as well, but frankly none of the other minor league arms did anything in ST to warrant a promotion either. This exact team only won 59 games last year (swapping out catchers). Why are they a lock to win 6+ more games this year? I don't see Castro as being worth 6 games all on his own.
  16. whydidnt
    You may be right. But why create the Chief of Baseball Ops if you weren't willing to let that guy be the final say on thing? Likewise why take the job, if you're Falvey and you don't get final say? This is his chance to shine, I wouldn't accept that sort of position if I didn't get to control my own destiny, and I doubt many others would either.
  17. whydidnt
    I think the roster points more to a total rebuild than the Twins are willing to publicly admit. Why keep Park on the roster if it only adds a few wins? If you are only going to win 65 games, those extra 2--3 aren't going to matter anyway. They want to figure out which of the young pitchers can stick. I think Dozier and E.Santana are both gone before the trade deadline. They are probably the only marketable veterans that will bring back any quality. The fact that they stood pat all off-season adds to my theory. The bullpen was ignored, like it has been for several years now. Only rebuilding teams ignore relief pitchers in 2017.
  18. whydidnt
    According to Cots contracts he has a $6M option for 2017. It vests if he reaches 485 plate appearances. To me that indicates the Twins have the option of picking it up, unless he reaches 485 PAs, in which case they HAVE to pick it up.
  19. whydidnt
    It will be interesting to see what they gave up for Feldman. I like Santana more than Feldman, but Feldman is a FA at the end of the year, so the financial commitment is a lot less.
  20. whydidnt
    I agree, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins are thinking of exercising their option on Suzuki for 2017 if they don't get something decent this year. For whatever reason, it seems the current staff is higher on him than most of us.
  21. whydidnt
    Yep, they have acquired a boatload of prospects. One of the lessons the Twins could learn from this: You can spend for top talent, and then sell it off for top prospects if things don't go well. The Yankees spend some $ on Miller and Chapman, but once it became apparent they were out this year, they turned that $ into valuable future pieces.
  22. whydidnt
    Well, he's a year younger and has superior K/9 and K/BB rates to this point than Gonsalves. If offered Bickford for Gonsalves i would say yes without a second thought.
  23. whydidnt
    Well, I'd agree that Smith is better than Abad, the difference isn't really that great. Baseball Ref Career ERA+ for Smith 103 - for Abad 110. Career bWAR Smith 0.9, Abad 2.8. The difference is not as great as you'd think, and both these numbers favor Abad. Like I started with I'd rather have Smith, but there really isn't a huge difference in these guy's results.
  24. whydidnt
    Wow! Are relievers now more valuable than starters? I liked the return for Abad until I saw this one.
  25. whydidnt
    Well, he's almost 26 and still in AAA. Baseball Prospectus pegs him as a #4 ML starter. Which is valuable, but also what we seem to have plenty of. Why deal a proven #3 for a guy who might become a #3?
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